Core Viewpoint - The investment philosophy of Morgan Asset Management's China Bond Investment Director emphasizes the importance of proactive risk management and creating a defensive investment strategy in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment team focuses on strict drawdown control and detailed strategy layout to create a "defensive bottom warehouse" for investors [1]. - Zhang Yige has developed a dual-track risk control mechanism that emphasizes proactive risk assessment through real-time monitoring of market sentiment, policy signals, and yield curve shapes [2]. - The Morgan Rui Xin interest rate bond fund, launched in May 2024, exclusively invests in government bonds and policy financial bonds to avoid credit risk, targeting investors who wish to completely avoid credit risk [2]. Group 2: Fund Performance - Since its establishment, the Morgan Rui Xin interest rate bond fund has achieved a net value growth of 4.19% as of May 30, 2025, outperforming its benchmark return of 2.92% [3]. - The fund's one-year return is 4.10%, exceeding the benchmark of 2.80% and the Wind long-term pure bond index of 3.01% [3]. - The fund's maximum drawdown over the past year was -0.70%, significantly better than the average maximum drawdown of -1.56% for similar funds [3]. Group 3: Team and Resources - Morgan Asset Management has over $3.7 trillion in assets under management globally, with more than 310 fixed income research personnel [4]. - The China team combines global perspectives with local characteristics, with an average industry experience of over 10 years [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Zhang Yige identifies fiscal policy direction as a key variable affecting the bond market, with trade negotiations potentially influencing fiscal stimulus [5]. - The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative but moderate, leading to continued market fluctuations and lower return expectations [5]. - Concerns about the impact of increased supply of ultra-long-term government bonds on the market are mitigated by stable long-term bond yields, with the core focus being on supply-demand dynamics [5].

Group 1 - The report indicates a divergence in the performance of simulated portfolios, with most strategies experiencing a decline in returns, while some credit style portfolios saw a rebound [2][14][15] - In the interest rate style portfolios, the city investment ultra-long and city investment barbell strategies achieved returns of 0.22% and 0.17% respectively, while in the credit style portfolios, the city investment ultra-long and city investment barbell strategies had returns of 0.5% and 0.3% respectively [2][15] - The weekly average return of the city investment heavy bond portfolio increased to 0.2%, up by 9.1 basis points from the previous week, with the ultra-long city investment strategy showing significant recovery, achieving a weekly return of 0.5% [2][17] Group 2 - The report highlights that the cumulative excess returns of various credit strategies have shown divergence over the past four weeks, with the city investment barbell, duration, and short-end sinking strategies yielding cumulative excess returns of 23.1 basis points, 14.4 basis points, and -0.2 basis points respectively [4][31] - The financial bond strategies have not shown excess returns in the past month, with the secondary capital bond bullet-type and broker bond duration strategies both deviating negatively from the benchmark by over 10 basis points [4][31] - The ultra-long city investment strategy achieved an excess return of 18.7 basis points, while the industrial ultra-long and secondary ultra-long strategies underperformed their respective benchmarks [4][34]

1 风险提示：测算模型失效风险；重仓股补全与实际差异较大风险；基金持仓、久期大幅度偏离的风险。基金相关信息及数据仅作为基金研究 使用，不作为募集材料或者宣传材料；本文涉及所有基金历史业绩均不代表未来表现 2 • 本周（2025/06/09-2025/ 06/13，下同），沪深300下跌0.25%，主动股票及偏股混合基金整体测算股票仓位上升0.16%，至84.90%。 • 本周主动股票及偏股混合型基金前5大行业：电子（13.97%）、电力设备（9.12%）、医药生物（6.89%）、汽车（6.52%）、机械设备（5.75%）。 • 加仓前3大行业：石油石化(+0.28%）、有色金属(+0.22%）、轻工制造(+0.10%）；减仓前3大行业：电子(-0.21%）、食品饮料(-0.15%）、机械设备(- 0.09%）。 • 本周中债10年期国开债到期收益率上行1bps，中长期纯债整体测算久期中位数上升0.37，至3.35年，位于近5年的100.00%分位数。近4周平均久期 中位数为3.01年；本周久期分歧度有所上升，测算久期标准差上升0.17，至1.78年。短期纯债久期中位数上升0.06，至0.95年。 • 信用债基 ...

随着债市回暖，债券基金业绩明显提升，近95%纯债基金净值实现正增长。其中，超八成产品净值在6 月份创下历史新高。 多位业内人士表示，债券基金净值创新高，主要受机构配置需求旺盛、央行降息等因素驱动。预计下半 年债市或将维持震荡向上格局，呈现利率波动放大、行情演绎较快的特征，宽松环境下可关注久期和杠 杆机会。 超八成纯债基金业绩创新高 进入6月以来，债市再度走强。截至6月13日，全市场2440只纯债型基金(只统计初始基金)中，约95%的 产品净值年内实现正增长，2002只基金净值在6月份创下新高，占比超82%。 【导读】超八成纯债基金业绩创历史新高 其中，博时裕通纯债3个月A、国泰睿元一年定开今年以来净值增长率分别为4.16%、4.01%；景顺长城 景泰鑫利纯债A、英大通惠多利A、格林泓旭利率债等年内业绩均在3%以上。 "资金持续宽松与配置需求旺盛共同驱动债市走牛，支撑债基表现。"长城基金固定收益研究部副总经 理、基金经理吴冰燕分析道，首先，5月以来，央行推出降准降息等一揽子金融政策，释放出明确的宽 松信号。资金面显著转松，为债券收益率下行创造了有利条件，助力债基获得出色表现。其次，在存款 利率走低的背景下，部分 ...

[Table_Title] 曲线由平至陡的拐点 [Table_Summary] 6 月 9-13 日，中美二轮谈判成为影响利率走势的主要变量，关税维持 原状的结果利多债券以及黄金等避险资产。不过临近税期，资金面出现了 预防性收敛，这也使得投资者对于债市的短期定价变得更为谨慎，利率与 类利率行情放缓，仅部分中长久期信用债逆势补涨。 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 15 日 ►曲线需要陡峭化 资金压力缓解之后，债市久期行情迟迟未能启动，为何如此？我们倾 向于，当前利率下行的障碍，或在于短端 1 年期国债收益率难破 1.4%， 曲线过度平坦。针对过平曲线如何修复的问题，我们筛选出历史上四段典 型的国债曲线"极致平坦化"案例，并对其先平后陡的过程进行复盘分析。 总结而言，历史上曲线的极致走平多与央行操作相关。无论加息与 否，当央行对于流动性的操作"收紧"时，市场往往容易走出较为极致的熊 平行情，2025 年一季度也不例外。而后续曲线的修复走陡同样依赖于央 行的态度缓和，具体表现可能不局限于降准降息，也包括日常的呵护性投 放提升。不过参考历史，央行态度改善对于曲线斜率的影响 ...

截至 6 月 13 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.35 年、2.98 年，均处于 2021 年 3 月以来 90%以上分位数水 平，商业银行债中，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 3.90、3.70 年、2.03 年，其 中一般商金债位于较低历史水平；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债久期分别 为 1.64 年、2.05 年、3.56 年、1.62 年，其中证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位，租赁公司债位于较高历史 分位。 模型适用性风险；模型估算误差 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 城投债：城投债加权平均成交期限徘徊在 2.35 年附近。其中，陕西省级城投债久期超 6 年，河北省级城投债成交久 期缩短至 0.81 年附近。同时，江苏区县级、浙江地级市、重庆区县级、广东地级市、福建区县级、四川省级、河南地 级市等区域城投债久期历史分位数已逾 90%，安徽地级市、浙江地级市、广东地级市城投债久期逼近 2021 年以来最 高。 产业债：产业债加权平均成交期限较上周有所缩短，总体处于 2.98 年附近，食品饮料行业成交久期缩短幅度较大， 缩短至 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 债市投资者已从看多转向做多 ——债市机构行为周报（6 月第 3 周） 报告日期： 2025-06-15 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com ⚫[Table_Summary] 三个债市边际变化 也在拉长久期博资本利得。 第三，债市整体杠杆率也在回升，已超去年水平。一季度债市资金面整 体均衡偏紧，DR007 运行在政策利率上方，对应债市杠杆率持续处于低 位，远低于季节性水平。而近期我们看到，在央行提前公布买断式逆回 购+大行买短债的情况下，6 月资金面并不紧，这一现象也催化了机构加 杠杆的诉求。 综合以上三点，叠加近期披露的基本面数据依然对债市有利（社融由政 府债支撑、物价依然偏弱），债市看多+做多的债市行情已经来临。 ⚫ 同时也有三点关注 第一，拉久期+加杠杆环境 ...

受美联储政策路径不确定性等因素影响，长期美债正逐步失去机构投资者的青睐，短期美债则成为当前市 场中相对稳妥的选择。 日前，贝莱德、施罗德、安联等多家外资资管机构相继发布最新债券投资观点。整体来看，机构普遍对发达市 场长期政府债券持审慎态度，纷纷将配置重心转向短久期债券与区域多元化布局。在这一轮策略调整中，欧元 区债券受到明显关注，相关资产在全球配置体系中逐步显现出相对优势。 总体而言，外资机构正加速重塑债券投资框架，不再单一依赖长期持有美债以获取稳健回报，而是更加注重期 限结构的灵活性与区域配置的分散效应。在全球市场不确定性持续上升的背景下，压缩久期、强化多元配置， 正在成为当前主流的债券投资路径。 长期美债承压，短久期成"避风港" 自4月以来，美国国债收益率大幅上升，引发市场广泛关注。贝莱德智库指出，这是全球债券期限溢价正在回 归常态的体现。他们表示，对发达市场长期债券维持低配观点，更看好短期债券和欧元区信用债。 这一判断背后，是对美国财政赤字持续扩大的担忧。3月时，基于外部机构对贸易、财政和移民政策影响的预 测，贝莱德预计美国财政赤字率将落在5%至7%的区间。此后，穆迪将美国信用评级从最高级别下调，美国国 ...

存量市场特征 超长信用债行情持续。中短久期信用债收益率已接近年内低点，后续下行幅度存在约束，部分投资者倾向于拉长久期 赚取超额收益。与上周相比，2.2%以下收益率的存量超长信用债只数增加至 336 只。 一级发行情况 超长信用新债认购情绪回升。本周"25 国新控股 MTN001(稳增长扩投资专项债)"和"25 诚通控股 MTN001(稳增长扩 投资专项债)"两只稳增长扩投资专项债发行上量，合计发行规模 395 亿，带动超长信用新债供给量显著上升。不过 因本周超长新债发行只数偏低，平均发行利率受部分个券影响而出现较大的波动，超长产业新债票面利率上行至 2.42%。 好在票息的增加也推动了超长信用新债认购情绪的回暖，本周新债认购热度回升至 24 年来 50%左右分位。 二级成交表现 超长信用债表现稳定。最新一周 10 年以上国债指数领涨债市，超长信用债指数表现也比较稳定，10 年以上 AA+信用 债指数上涨 0.36%。 虽然从成交笔数上看，6 月超长信用债交投情绪出现降温，但 7 年以上信用债 TKN 成交占比读数仍显示超长信用债具 备不低的买盘热度，且成交收益与估值偏离幅度相比上周也未有较大波动。 投资者结构 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral view on 50Y treasury bonds [7] Core View of the Report - In the current volatile market with increasing bullish bond market catalysts, the duration advantage of 50Y treasury bonds can be considered, but due to liquidity factors and changes in demand - side institutional behavior, and limited downward space for interest rates, a neutral view is maintained [7] Summary by Related Content Market Conditions and Opportunities for 50Y Treasury Bonds - Since June, trading opportunities in the bond market have gradually increased. Market reaction to Sino - US negotiations has dulled, May's fundamental data is likely to be favorable for the bond market, large banks have increased short - bond purchases, and the upcoming Lujiazui Forum may bring trading opportunities in the capital market [2] - Compared with other bonds, 50Y treasury bonds have a duration advantage in a bull market. Their supply and liquidity are weaker than 30Y bonds. The balance of treasury bonds with a remaining maturity of 45Y - 50Y is about 50.2 billion yuan, while that of 25Y - 30Y is over 2.2 trillion yuan. The current yield - to - maturity of 50Y treasury bonds is lower than that of 30Y local government bonds [2] - Another trading opportunity for 50Y treasury bonds is the interest rate elasticity after primary issuance. Since 2017, in nearly half of the 50Y treasury bond issuances, the primary issuance rate was higher than the secondary rate, often occurring in volatile or bear markets and related to the behavior of long - term bond - allocating institutions such as insurance companies [3][6] Demand - Side Analysis - Insurance institutions are the main buyers of ultra - long - term bonds. They have steadily increased their allocation of ultra - long - term bonds over the years, while funds may extend their duration at certain times for trading purposes [6] - June is a key time for insurance institutions to potentially increase their allocation of 50Y treasury bonds, but the allocation intensity this year may be lower than in previous years. The reasons include lower premium growth from January to April this year, high government bond issuance since the first quarter leading to more primary - market bond purchases by allocation funds, and insurance institutions' preference for 30Y local government bonds due to their higher coupon rates [6]