Report Title - "【粕类周报】中美和谈，估值修复" [1] Report Information - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [1] - Research Center: Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures [1] - Analyst: Huang Xianglan [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, the domestic market valuation is low. With China's expectation to purchase US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise. The futures market is expected to rebound to repair the crushing profit, showing a volatile and slightly upward trend. However, the current loose supply of nearby soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the distant future limit the upward space of the futures market [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview 3.1.1 Supply - The estimated inventory-to-consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 6.9%, with potential for a downward adjustment in the expected yield per acre and an upward adjustment in export expectations. The supply and demand balance sheet of US soybeans is expected to be tight [4]. - As of October 25, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 34.4%, lower than the same period last year and the five-year average. Pay attention to the relatively dry conditions in southern Brazil and the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern [4]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose, and the progress of far - month purchases is slow [4]. - Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease. Pay attention to policy changes. The opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect far - month supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, and downstream transactions are cautious [4]. - The downstream transactions and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, and are expected to start decreasing in November. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have dropped to a low level [4]. - Domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is decreasing, but the inventory level is still at a high level in the same period of previous years [4]. 3.1.4 Basis/Spread - The basis is neutral [4]. 3.1.5 Profit - The crushing profit of Brazilian soybean purchases is poor, while the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is good [4]. 3.1.6 Valuation - From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, the futures price of soybean meal is at a neutral valuation [4]. 3.1.7 Macro and Policy - China has agreed to purchase 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans this season and at least 2.5 billion tons per year in the next three years, which is positive for soybean meal and negative for rapeseed meal [4]. 3.1.8 Investment View - The market is expected to be volatile and slightly upward [4]. 3.1.9 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and slightly upward; Arbitrage: Wait and see. Pay attention to policies and weather [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply and Demand Data of Meal 3.2.1 Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - In September, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased [31]. - The inventory - to - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased in the September report [37]. 3.2.2 Sowing and Yield - The sowing rate and excellent - good rate data of US soybeans are presented, showing the trends in different years [46]. - The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined [51]. 3.2.3 Crushing Volume - The NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA monthly US soybean crushing volume data are presented, showing different trends in different years [58]. 3.2.4 Export - This week's US soybean export sales data was not announced. The historical data of US soybean export net sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China are presented [64]. 3.2.5 Import - The CNF premium of soybeans and the import cost and crushing profit data of Canadian rapeseed are presented [71][74]. - The monthly import volume data of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China are presented [78][80]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Domestic soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal inventory data are presented, showing the high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal and the low inventory of feed enterprises [81]. 3.2.7 Production and Sales - The data of the operating rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are presented [92]. - The trading volume and pick - up volume data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented [101][108]. 3.2.8 Price Difference - The price difference data between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented [113]. 3.2.9 Feed Production - The monthly feed production data are presented [114]. 3.2.10 Livestock and Poultry Breeding - The profit data of pig, broiler, and layer breeding, as well as the inventory data of livestock and poultry, are presented. The pig price has slightly rebounded, and the weight reduction is not obvious [116][124][128].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but currently, it is advisable to wait and see as the market tests OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. - For methanol, the port price has dropped rapidly, and the inventory remains high and difficult to deplete. With supply increasing and demand weakening, if the high - inventory issue persists, the market may decline further. It is recommended to wait and see as chasing short after the sharp decline is not cost - effective and there is no driving force for long positions [3]. - For urea, supply has returned and compound fertilizer production has increased. Although downstream demand has followed up and pre - orders have slightly risen, the supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, but the price downside is also restricted. It is advisable to look for short - term long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, the price seems to have stabilized. Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [11]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, but supply is high with many new devices to be commissioned. Domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, so it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Although the supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling periodically [17]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The spot price is stable, and the overall inventory is decreasing. The price may maintain a low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [20]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. With high inventory and a large number of warehouse receipts, the cost - side supply - surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. - For PX, the load is high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance operations and low processing fees. PX inventory is difficult to deplete, and PXN is expected to be under pressure in November. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - For PTA, supply maintenance is expected to increase in November, and there may be inventory depletion, but the processing fee expansion is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair in the short term [26]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry's supply is high, and imports are increasing. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to short on rallies [30]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the INE main crude oil futures were reported at 458.90 yuan/barrel, high - sulfur fuel oil at 2751.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil at 3255.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, test OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. Methanol - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the Taicang price dropped by 35 yuan, Inner Mongolia remained stable, and Lunan dropped by 5 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped by 28 yuan to 2180 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 25 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 4 to - 80 [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high inventory, supply - demand imbalance [3]. Urea - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the Shandong spot price dropped by 10 yuan, Henan remained unchanged, and Hubei dropped by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped by 2 yuan to 1625 yuan, with a basis of - 57 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread remained stable at - 78 [5]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - term long opportunities on dips as the supply - demand is relatively loose but the price downside is limited [7]. Rubber - **Market Data**: The rubber price has returned to the starting point and shows signs of stabilization. As of October 30, 2025, the full - steel tire operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.33%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire operating rate was 74.69%, up 0.20 percentage points from last week but down 4.27 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 103.89 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or 1% [7][9]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit, partial position building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PVC01 contract dropped by 65 yuan to 4701 yuan. The Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The basis was - 91 yuan, up 15 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 292 yuan, down 8 yuan. The overall operating rate was 78.3%, up 1.7%. Factory inventory was 33.8 tons, up 0.4 tons, and social inventory was 103 tons, down 0.5 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium term due to high supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the spot price of pure benzene dropped by 144 yuan/ton to 5350 yuan/ton, and the futures price also dropped. The spot price of styrene dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton, and the futures price dropped by 92 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate of pure benzene was 66.72%, down 2.53%. The Jiangsu port inventory of styrene decreased by 0.95 tons to 19.30 tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling periodically as the port inventory decreases significantly [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the futures price of polyethylene dropped by 69 yuan/ton to 6899 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 7010 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, down 0.56%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons to 51.46 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons to 5.00 tons [19]. - **Strategy**: The price may maintain a low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the futures price of polypropylene dropped by 61 yuan/ton to 6590 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6640 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, up 0.16%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons to 63.85 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons to 22.00 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 6.68 tons [21][22]. - **Strategy**: The cost - side supply - surplus pattern suppresses the market, and it is in a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory [23]. PX - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PX01 contract rose by 30 yuan to 6618 yuan, and the PX CFR rose by 3 dollars to 820 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 87%, up 1.1%, and the Asian load was 78.1%, down 0.4%. The PTA load was 78%, down 0.8% [23]. - **Strategy**: PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see as there is no driving force and the valuation is at a neutral level [24]. PTA - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PTA01 contract rose by 16 yuan to 4586 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 4510 yuan. The PTA load was 78%, down 0.8%, and the downstream load was 91.7%, up 0.3%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 24 was 220.1 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons [25]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair in the short term as the supply maintenance is expected to increase and there may be inventory depletion but limited processing fee expansion [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the EG01 contract dropped by 14 yuan to 4018 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped by 41 yuan to 4106 yuan. The supply - side load was 76.2%, up 2.9%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 tons to 52.3 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies as the supply is high, imports are increasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 82 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 18.09 billion yuan, down 34.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.98 billion yuan, down 53.7% year-on-year [2][8]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 3.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.0% year-on-year, and a net loss of 370 million yuan compared to a profit of 630 million yuan in the same period last year [2][8]. - The company is undergoing a deep adjustment process, focusing on clearing inventory and stabilizing channel confidence, with a projected improvement in performance in the coming year [2][8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 28.876 billion, 19.037 billion, 20.003 billion, and 21.671 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -12.8%, -34.1%, 5.1%, and 8.3% [4][8]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 6.673 billion, 3.018 billion, 3.408 billion, and 4.247 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -33.4%, -54.8%, 12.9%, and 24.6% [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 4.43, 2.00, 2.26, and 2.82 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [4][8]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on reducing inventory pressure and stabilizing channel profits, with a current channel repayment progress of approximately 70% [2][8]. - The company has seen a positive response to products priced under 100 yuan, indicating a strategic shift in product offerings [2][8]. - The management has implemented measures to reduce promotional expenses while increasing channel subsidies to ensure profitability for distributors [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a year-on-year improvement in Q3 2025 performance, driven by low base effects, but absolute value recovery will take time [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 200 million yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -20 million yuan, representing a year-on-year change of +0.8% and +70.9% respectively [1][2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company recorded revenue of 760 million yuan and a net profit of -10 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of -36.2% and -117.4% [2] - Cash receipts in Q3 2025 were 210 million yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, while operating cash flow was -90 million yuan, an improvement of 54.7% year-on-year [2] Inventory and Product Launch - The company is experiencing a gradual reduction in overall social inventory, and the product "Jiu Gui·Zi You Ai" was officially launched, contributing to revenue growth with an expected contribution of over 100 million yuan for the entire year [2][3] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 61.2%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product mix adjustments and pressure on average prices [3] - The company has been controlling expenses, with sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreasing by 31.3% and 3.1% year-on-year, respectively [3] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to Q4 2025 and 2026, inventory reduction is expected to continue, and the pre-Spring Festival stocking of "Zi You Ai" by Pang Donglai is anticipated to drive growth [1][3] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast, expecting EPS of 0.18 yuan and 0.60 yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "buy" investment rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but showed signs of recovery in Q3 with a slight increase in revenue and reduced losses [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 760 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -10 million yuan, down 117.36% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 198 million yuan, an increase of 0.78% year-on-year, and a net profit of -19 million yuan, which represents a 70.93% reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2]. Market and Product Development - The company’s new product received high market recognition, leading to significant breakthroughs in markets outside its home province [2]. - The banquet market for the company’s products performed well, with a 21% year-on-year increase in the number of graduation banquets held in Hunan, and a remarkable 273% growth in the Xiangxi market [2]. Cost Control and Profitability - The company demonstrated effective cost control, with a gross margin of 66.66% and a net margin of -1.29% for Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.15 percentage points and 6.03 percentage points, respectively [3]. - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 61.22%, with a net margin of -9.45%, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.81 percentage points and an increase in losses by 23.32 percentage points [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.04 billion yuan, 1.07 billion yuan, and 1.18 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 23 million yuan, 40 million yuan, and 70 million yuan, respectively [4]. - The company is focusing on innovative consumption scenarios and inventory reduction to adapt to market changes and meet the needs of younger consumers [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is favorable due to continued inventory depletion, consumption exceeding expectations, and slower - than - expected resumption of production at previously shut - down mines, providing some support to the market. However, attention should be paid to consumption and inventory inflection points. If consumption weakens and mine production resumes, the inventory may shift from depletion to accumulation, causing the market to decline [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 30, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 83,120 yuan/ton and closed at 83,400 yuan/ton, with a 1.19% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 829,117 lots, and the open interest was 532,871 lots (506,882 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 3,780 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 27,641 lots, a change of 116 lots from the previous day [2]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,200 - 81,800 yuan/ton, a change of 850 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,300 - 78,300 yuan/ton, also a change of 850 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 985 US dollars/ton, a change of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The downstream material factory's operating rate is rising, and demand supports spot transactions. New production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate production in October is expected to have growth potential. The power market (new energy vehicles) and the energy - storage market are both booming [2]. - On the afternoon of October 30, the auction of Albemarle spodumene concentrate ended. The auction item was 16,400 dry tons of 5.21% spodumene concentrate from Wodgina, with an actual transaction price of 7,058 yuan/ton (tax - included, self - pick - up from Zhenjiang Port) [2]. Inventory Situation - According to the latest weekly statistics, the weekly production decreased by 228 tons to 21,080 tons. The production from spodumene and mica decreased slightly, while the production from salt - lakes and recycling increased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 3,008 tons to 127,358 tons. The inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory in the intermediate links increased slightly. Recent consumption has strongly supported inventory depletion [3]. Strategy - Short - term: It is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to inventory and consumption inflection points and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices. It is expected that the willingness of upstream to hedge will increase when the price reaches 85,000 yuan/ton [4]. - For cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options, there are no relevant strategies provided [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends across different commodity sectors, with factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and policy changes influencing prices. For example, the Fed's interest rate decisions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and seasonal production patterns all play significant roles [3][4]. - Different commodities have distinct investment outlooks. Some are expected to be bullish in the short - term or long - term, while others are likely to be bearish or range - bound. For instance, gold may have short - term volatility but is supported by the de - dollarization logic, while some energy and chemical products may face supply - driven downward pressure in the long run [4][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: After a sharp decline in price, it is recommended to buy on dips as the short - term trend is a pull - back after hitting a new high. The Fed's rate cut and Sino - US relations, along with LME's position limits, have affected the market [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and overseas power supply issues, it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to decline as it returns to the fundamental surplus logic. However, the spot price shows signs of stabilizing. Buying call options on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the main position changes [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price is expected to be strong due to high spot demand. High - frequency monitoring of inventory and warehouse receipt changes is recommended, and chasing long positions should be done with caution [5]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, considering factors such as the Fed's rate cut, Sino - US relations, and LME's position limits [5]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to have significant short - term volatility. Buying on support levels is recommended, and silver long positions should be reduced. The de - dollarization logic remains, but market reactions to the Fed's decisions and Sino - US negotiations are complex [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Hold long positions, with the RB01 reference range of 3060 - 3130 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is significant structural differentiation [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions, with the I01 reference range of 780 - 810 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is marginally neutral - strong, and the inventory build - up may be slower than the historical average [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the JM01 reference range of 1270 - 1320 yuan/ton. The futures valuation is high, and there is an expectation of production contraction [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are short - term bullish, focusing on trade negotiations. The domestic market is range - bound, following the cost side. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [8]. - **Corn**: The futures price is expected to be oscillating weakly due to factors such as damaged grain quality in North China, new grain listing pressure, and production cost reduction [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils are bearish with structural differences. An anti - spread strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to production areas' output and biodiesel policies [8]. - **Cotton**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with a range - bound strategy between 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton, considering factors such as the strength of the US dollar and Sino - US trade negotiations [8]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound as the pressure eases [9]. - **Pigs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound with improved demand and reduced second - fattening [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. Short positions or anti - spreads are recommended [10]. - **PTA**: The medium - term supply - demand pattern is improving. Long positions are recommended, and shorting the processing margin on rallies is advisable [10]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to have a short - term pull - back and a medium - term range - bound trend. Band - trading is recommended [11]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. An anti - spread strategy is recommended [11]. - **PP**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [11]. - **MEG**: In the long - term, there is a large inventory build - up pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended [11]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the reduction of Russian oil exports [11]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Shorting on rallies or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is balanced, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the market is watching the Sino-US summit. The copper price was strong yesterday. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, the rapid increase in price suppresses demand. The market should focus on the marginal changes in demand and Sino-US tariffs, with the main contract supported around 87,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The alumina price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price has continued to be strong, breaking through 21,300 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance, and the aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and oscillated at a high level. The cost support is strong, and the supply-demand relationship is in a tight balance. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The ADC12 price is expected to remain strongly oscillating in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro environment is warm. The zinc price oscillated strongly yesterday. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is stable. The LME has the risk of a short squeeze, and the export window for zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price is supported in the short term but may continue to oscillate [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a low-buying strategy on dips is recommended. The market should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillated yesterday. The macro sentiment has improved, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, the inventory accumulation exerts some pressure. The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price oscillated and rose slightly yesterday. The macro environment is positive, but the nickel-iron and ferrochrome prices are under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was strong yesterday. The production has increased, and the demand is optimistic. The raw material supply is tight, and the inventory is decreasing. The lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the market watching whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 334,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.74%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The average price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in Foshan decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1,774 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -40 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.17%. The export volume was 2,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. The SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased by 15.13% month-on-month. The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.20%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in September was 32,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.26%. The import volume was 17,010 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.00% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. The 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of 300-series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 manufacturers) was 1.8217 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.38%. The import volume was 120,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.70% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. The SMM industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.28% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and there is still room for further monetary policy easing, but the subsequent rate - cut rhythm may slow down. The upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting in Busan, South Korea may bring changes to tariffs. - The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the bottom center of prices. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. It is expected that the domestic refined copper output in October may decline month - on - month. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is a fear of high prices, more purchase orders will be released after the price drops. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. However, the supply pressure is still significant, and the demand is weak. The full - caliber inventory has increased by 64,000 tons this week. The cost support of bauxite is gradually weakening, and the profit margin of the industry has shrunk. It is expected that the alumina price will continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. - The aluminum price has continued to be strong, and the spot market discount has gradually widened, indicating that high prices are suppressing actual purchases. The macro - environment is generally favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance pattern. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20800 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the high - level oscillation of the aluminum price. The cost support is prominent, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up the procurement cost. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern. The inventory is in a slow de - stocking process. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro - atmosphere is warm. The supply - side logic of zinc has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. The demand is stable without exceeding expectations. The LME has a risk of a short squeeze, and the export window of zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price may be supported in the short term but will likely maintain an oscillation without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee is at a low level. The demand is still weak, and although AI computing power and the photovoltaic industry have driven some tin consumption, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. Powell's hawkish statement on the December interest - rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it may continue to be strong [11]. Nickel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the ore price is firm. The nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the stainless - steel demand is weak. The downstream ternary still has inventory - building demand, but the medium - term supply may increase. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118000 - 126000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The ore price is firm, and the nickel - iron price is under pressure. The chromium - iron market is weak and stable. The supply pressure of stainless steel is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures price has been relatively strong, with the main price center moving up. The production has been increasing, and the downstream demand is optimistic. The raw - material inventory is being depleted quickly, and the supply of concentrate is tight. It is expected that the short - term market will remain strong, and attention should be paid to whether the price can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. - The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 290 yuan/ton to 87,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.33%. - The SMM wet - process copper price decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 87,660 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 324.15 yuan/ton to 4299 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.15% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons or 4.31% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic copper import volume was 334,300 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons or 26.50% compared with the previous month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. - The import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton to 2914 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons or 1.74% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a decrease of 118,000 tons or 3.16% compared with the previous month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1774 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons or 7.48% compared with the previous month. - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons or 4.43% compared with the previous month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. - The import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton to 5088 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a decrease of 26,100 tons or 4.17% compared with the previous month. - The refined zinc import volume was 227,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons or 11.61% compared with the previous month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60 dollars/ton to 40 dollars/ton, a decrease of 60% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a decrease of 1553 tons or 15.13% compared with the previous month. - The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 4880 tons or 31.71% compared with the previous month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 1.26% compared with the previous month. - The refined nickel import volume was 17,010 tons, a decrease of 526 tons or 3.00% compared with the previous month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron ex - factory average price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 1.8217 million tons, an increase of 6900 tons or 0.38% compared with the previous month. - The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 423,500 tons, an increase of 1500 tons or 0.36% compared with the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. - The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2020 tons or 2.37% compared with the previous month. - The lithium carbonate demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12,778 tons or 12.28% compared with the previous month [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, with no obvious improvement in downstream demand. The rebound of urea prices is blocked, and it will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with a clear upper pressure level [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **行情分析 (Market Analysis)** - Urea futures opened lower and moved higher with a stronger - than - expected trend. The spot market had poor trading, with insufficient domestic demand and strong resistance from downstream to high prices, and prices remained stable. The daily output of urea had a slight increase recently, but there were still plants under inspection or shut - down, so the output fluctuation was small. The cost - end was strongly supported by the rising coal price due to the serious losses of gas - based plants. The agricultural demand was in progress, and the factory's finished - product inventory was gradually decreasing but still slightly higher than the same period last year. The spring compound fertilizer production was about to start, and the inventory situation had improved compared to the previous loose state but had not reversed the inventory - accumulation cycle [1] **期现行情 (Futures and Spot Market Conditions)** - **Futures**: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1638 yuan/ton, opened high and moved low, with a stronger - than - expected trend, and finally closed at 1644 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The trading volume was 270349 lots, a decrease of 2652 lots. On October 29, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 2970 compared to the previous trading day due to centralized cancellation. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions decreased by 5189 lots, and short positions decreased by 1821 lots [2] - **Spot**: The spot market had poor trading, with insufficient domestic demand and strong resistance from downstream to high prices, and prices remained stable. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was still 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][4] **基本面跟踪 (Fundamental Tracking)** - **基差 (Basis)**: The mainstream spot market quotation remained stable, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [7] - **供应数据 (Supply Data)**: On October 29, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 190400 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8] - **企业库存数据 (Enterprise Inventory Data)**: As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5543 million tons, a decrease of 75900 tons compared to last week, a decrease of 4.66% [11] - **预售订单天数 (Pre - sale Order Days)**: As of October 31, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.53 days, an increase of 0.12 days compared to the previous period, an increase of 1.62% [11]