中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会发布的数据显示，本周多晶硅N型复投料成交均价为5.92万元/吨，N型 颗粒硅成交均价为5.58万元/吨，均环比持平。总的来看，本周尽管部分企业报价出现小幅松动，但主 流市场成交价整体持稳。市场交投氛围清淡，新签订单数量稀少，仍以少量试探性成交为主。 硅业分会认为，当前市场僵局主要源于两方面因素：其一，尽管光伏产品出口退税等政策对中长期需求 形成预期支撑，但部分需求已在2025年提前预支，导致下游硅片企业开工率提升意愿不足，对硅料的即 时采购需求支撑有限；其二，白银价格持续飙升大幅推高电池片及组件生产成本，硅料报价的小幅下调 对下游成本下降影响有限。同时，多晶硅企业持续低开工率导致综合成本上升，进一步强化了价格底部 支撑。 该机构预计，硅料价格走势的关键变量在于：第一，下游开工率的实质性变化，尤其是电池和组件端订 单需求对硅片端的有效传导；第二，库存去化的可持续性，若需求未能及时回暖，当前的高位库存仍将 成为压制价格的主要因素。 本周硅片价格同样持稳运行，其中，183N单晶硅片成交均价在1.31元/片，210RN单晶硅片成交均价在 1.42元/片，210N单晶硅片成交均价在1.66元 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-22 供应持续收缩，成交氛围寡淡 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-01-21，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8730元/吨，最后收于8780元/吨，较前一日结算变化（45） 元/吨，变化（0.52）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓223687手，2026-01-20仓单总数为11955手，较前一日变化 384手。 供应端:本周，新疆某大厂传来减产消息，1月预计排产有明显下降，对工业硅价格产生利好推动。如果减产有效， 工业硅供给端收缩将成效显著，库存将由累库向去库转移。 策略 工业硅价格预计将维持区间震荡，供需双减的情况下叠加煤炭价格与光伏产业链价格上涨传导效果，价格支撑明 显。上行高度取决于下游需求恢复和库存去化进度，下行空间则受成本支撑和减产预期限制。 单边：短期区间操作 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The apple market shows a pattern of active production areas but sluggish sales areas, with the overall demand being weak. The price trend is clearly differentiated, with high - quality fruits supported by high warehouse - receipt costs and low excellent - fruit rates, while general - quality fruits are under pressure. The apple stocking progress is slow, and attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking, terminal consumption, and the sales of citrus fruits [3] - Red dates: Although the output of red dates this season has decreased, the overall market supply is still relatively abundant due to the combination of old - date inventory and new - date listing. The downstream stocking is mainly based on on - demand purchases, and the consumption recovery strength needs further observation. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival terminal sales, inventory reduction progress, and the impact of weather on logistics [7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9418 yuan/ton, a change of +47 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.50% [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, also with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 - 1218 changed by - 47 compared to the previous day, and the spot basis AP05 - 1018 also changed by - 47 [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2605 contract yesterday was 8740 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.46% [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.00 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 - 740 changed by - 40 compared to the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - The overall market situation in the production areas is stable, and the Spring Festival stocking is gradually progressing. The transaction has slightly improved compared to the previous period, but the volume of farmers' fruit sales is still limited. The sales areas have slow sales, and the transit warehouses are seriously overstocked [2] Red dates - The purchase of grey dates in Xinjiang production areas has ended. The raw material purchase adheres to the principle of pricing based on quality. In the sales areas, the market is in the Spring Festival stocking stage, and the actual prices vary according to the origin and quality [6][7] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price rose and then fell yesterday, closing higher. The overall demand in the market is weak, and the price trend is differentiated. The current pattern is active production areas but sluggish sales areas, and it is significantly affected by low - price fruits such as cherries. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking and terminal consumption [3] Red dates - The red date futures price fluctuated upward after opening lower yesterday. The purchase in the production areas has ended, and the industry's focus has shifted to terminal consumption. Although the output has decreased, the supply is still abundant. The downstream stocking is on - demand, and the consumption recovery needs further observation [7] Group 6: Strategy - The strategy for both the apple and red date industries is neutral [4][8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment, so cautious participation is advised. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply side is gradually recovering, but considering the low elasticity of the supply side and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price fluctuates, rising after a decline. The production in January and February is expected to decrease. The demand side is likely to decline slightly in January. The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the changes in production on the demand side [3]. Polysilicon - The average spot price of polysilicon and the price of silicon wafers have declined. The demand expectation has improved, and component production may increase slightly, which is conducive to inventory digestion. However, polysilicon and silicon wafer prices are under pressure due to high inventory. The monthly average production in the first quarter is expected to drop to about 80,000 tons. The price may be supported at the 48,000 yuan/ton level, and even at 45,000 yuan/ton considering full - cost support [4]. Copper - Market speculative sentiment has eased, and copper prices fluctuated. Geopolitical factors affect market expectations of copper tariffs. The global visible inventory has reached a high level in recent years, and the return of COMEX copper inventory may ease the supply pressure in non - US regions. In the short term, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing, and in the long term, the price bottom center is expected to gradually rise. Attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes, with support at 97500 - 98500 [5]. Zinc - Market speculative sentiment has eased, and zinc prices adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, and the import window for zinc ore has opened. The supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. High zinc prices have suppressed demand, and the downstream operating rate has weakened. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support around 23,800. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [9]. Aluminum - The alumina market showed a weak and volatile trend, with an oversupply situation. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is in a high - level volatile pattern. Although macro and policy expectations are positive, the fundamentals are under pressure, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed. Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton [12]. Nickel - The nickel futures market was volatile. Macro factors and the situation of Indonesian nickel ore quotas affect the market. The overall spot transaction of refined nickel is average. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron have increased. The demand for stainless steel in the off - season is weak, and the market cost is relatively limited. The inventory pressure has increased. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 138000 - 148000 [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated at a high level, with cost being the main driving factor. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The social inventory has decreased slightly. The ADC12 price is expected to continue the high - level volatile pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22000 - 23500 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices showed a narrow - range fluctuation and then a late - session rally. Macro factors and raw material supply expectations affect the market. The raw material prices are expected to rise, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The social inventory is decreasing, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. Stainless steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 14200 - 15000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures prices rose sharply. News about lithium concentrate auctions and mine supply fluctuations affected the market sentiment. The production is slightly increasing, and the supply is expected to decline during the pre - holiday maintenance period. The downstream demand shows certain resilience. Social inventory decreased last week. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, but chasing the rise requires attention to volatility and liquidity risks [20]. Summary by Directory Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.22% to 395,750 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased 14.82% to - 92.00 dollars/ton. The import loss was - 7117.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.99% [2]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In December, tin ore imports increased 16.81% to 17,637 tons, SMM refined tin production decreased 0.06% to 15,950 tons, and refined tin exports increased 41.84% to 2763 tons [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased 37.69% to 9549.0 tons, and social inventory increased 36.07% to 10,175.0 tons [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis of Main Contracts**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased 6.93% [3]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and Xinjiang's production increased 6.46% to 25.29 million tons. The national operating rate decreased 0.35% to 64.59% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory increased 2.91% to 14.83 million tons, and social inventory increased 0.54% to 55.50 million tons [3]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type granular silicon decreased 7.34% to 50,500 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis increased 5.49% [4]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: Polysilicon production increased 0.79% to 11.55 million tons, and silicon wafer production decreased 19.26% to 43.90 million tons [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: Silicon wafer inventory decreased 5.53% to 24.78 million tons, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased 1.54% to 4620.00 [4]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased 0.66% to 100,060 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 increased to 101.84 dollars/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and imports decreased 4.02% to 26.02 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased 7.81% to 69.04 million tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased 12.27% to 32.94 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased 18.26% to 21.35 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased 0.53% to 24,210 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased to - 1851 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, refined zinc production decreased 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and imports decreased 51.94% to 0.88 million tons [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory increased 3.13% to 12.20 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.40% to 11.2 million tons [9]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum increased 0.13% to 23,710 yuan/ton, and the alumina (Shandong) average price decreased 0.19% to 2560 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, alumina production decreased 1.08% to 743.94 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.97% to 363.66 million tons [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased 2.60% to 74.90 million tons, and LME inventory increased 5.01% to 50.7 million tons [12]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased 0.99% to 144,900 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased 2.15% to - 200 dollars/ton [13]. - **Cost and New - Energy Material Prices**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel increased 1.09% to 112,237 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased 0.22% to 33,375 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased 26.10% to 31,400 tons, and SHFE inventory increased 3.28% to 48,180 tons [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 23,850 yuan/ton, and the Foshan crushed primary aluminum scrap price difference increased 0.80% to 2509 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 6.16% to 64.00 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased 0.46% to 30.41 million tons [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 1.41% to 4.89 million tons [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased 1.40% to 14,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) increased 0.89% to 51 dollars/wet ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.92% to 176.32 million tons, and stainless steel imports increased 29.32% to 14.50 million tons [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased 1.47% to 45.07 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased 3.93% to 158,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF increased 2.52% to 2035 dollars/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased 4.04% to 99,200 tons, and demand decreased 2.50% to 130,118 tons [20]. - **Inventory Changes**: In December, lithium carbonate total inventory decreased 12.23% to 56,664 tons, and downstream inventory decreased 7.21% to 38,998 tons [20].

名石化25万吨检修装置。下游农膜开工率或维持季节性下降趋势，包装膜备货峰值已过、需求跟进有限。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 成本方面，美伊局势仍有不确定性，国际油价或受地缘因素扰动。需求端持续偏弱，但由于行业检修装置 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 有所增加，库存去化顺利，市场观望情绪上升。L2605日度K线关注6450附近支撑与6710附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 塑料产业日报 2026-01-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6666 | 26 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6720 | 14 | | | 5 ...

1月20日，碳酸锂期货价格盘中大涨，尾盘多个合约触及涨停，主力2605合约收涨8.99%，报160500元/ 吨。 业内人士认为，碳酸锂期货价格昨日上涨的主要原因大概率是国内供应扰动快速发酵，引发市场对供应 收紧的担忧。 消息面上，江西产区再次受到市场关注。据悉，近期市场传出宁德时代枧下窝锂矿环评出现进展的消 息，同时有消息称江西部分矿山有停产考虑。 "本次碳酸锂期价上涨的核心驱动因素是市场对供应收缩的担忧。"国投安信期货分析师吴江解释称，随 着江西产区供应扰动增加，尾矿处理成为锂矿生产环节的重点，市场担忧其他在产矿山面临类似约束， 推动碳酸锂价格强势上涨。 弘则研究分析师张峻瑞认为，随着新矿产法及《固体废物综合治理行动计划》发布，矿山生产规范和环 保监管有趋严态势，但目前网传江西其他矿山有停产风险，暂无官方文件或企业官方公告。在可靠信息 出炉之前，应谨慎对待此类市场干扰。 广期所相关负责人表示，后续，广期所将密切跟踪碳酸锂期、现货市场情况，加强预研预判，并根据市 场情况采取针对性风控措施，保障期货市场功能有效发挥。同时坚持监管"长牙带刺"、有棱有角，切实 履行市场一线监管职责，从严、从速查处违规交易，切实维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term soybean market will maintain a weak oscillating operation with a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The palm oil market will also maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term due to factors such as unmet demand expectations and high inventory [5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is weak oscillation [5] - **Core Logic**: The US soybean market is supported by US crushing demand, but Brazil's record - high production prospects pressure the far - month contracts. In the domestic market, the import cost is falling, and the market is weak. The price of the industrial chain is relatively firm due to lower oil mill operating rates, inventory depletion, and rigid demand, with a strengthening basis. The core market game is between upstream price - holding and downstream slow - down in procurement. The long - term loose expectation suppresses far - month contracts, while spot firmness and inventory depletion support near - month contracts [5] 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is weak oscillation [7] - **Core Logic**: Recently, the palm oil market has been suppressed by Indonesia's under - expected biofuel policy and high inventory at the origin, resulting in weak oscillating prices. Indonesia's postponement of the B50 project and maintaining the B40 blending standard have disappointed the market's demand expectation for about 3 million tons of palm oil consumption growth. Although Malaysia's inventory is affected by seasonal production cuts, the absolute level remains high, with continuous supply pressure. Market sentiment has turned bearish, and speculative funds have continuously reduced net long positions, leading to weak price rebounds. In the short term, without new demand drivers, palm oil will maintain a weak oscillating trend [7]

Core Insights - The national real estate market in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with a focus on institutional reforms and revitalizing idle properties to mitigate risks and boost consumption in 2026 [1][6] Sales Performance - In 2025, the total sales area of new residential properties reached 88.101 million square meters, a decrease of 8.7% from the previous year, with residential sales area down by 9.2% [1] - The sales revenue for new residential properties was 839.37 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 12.6%, with residential sales revenue down by 13.0% [1][2] - The sales area and revenue for new residential properties in 2024 were 97.385 million square meters and 967.5 billion yuan, respectively, marking a year-on-year decline of 12.9% and 17.1% [2] Market Dynamics - The decline in sales area and revenue is attributed to strict control over new supply, accelerated inventory reduction, and improved quality of new residential properties, indicating a shift towards a new balance in supply and demand [2] - As of the end of 2025, the inventory of unsold properties stood at 76.632 million square meters, an increase of 1.6% from the previous year, with residential inventory rising by 2.8% [6] Price Trends - New home prices in 70 major cities continued to decline, with a notable drop in December 2025, while the number of cities with stable prices is increasing, suggesting a phase of deep negotiation between supply and demand [3][4] - In December 2025, the average price of second-hand homes in first-tier cities fell by 0.9%, but the decline was less than in previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [4][5] Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue facing inventory pressure, with a significant number of cities still experiencing high inventory levels, necessitating time for market clearing [6] - The trend of demand shifting from new homes to second-hand homes and rentals is becoming more pronounced, with policies aimed at controlling new supply and reducing inventory expected to stabilize prices and market expectations in 2026 [6][7]

Group 1 - Methanol futures main contract closed at 2239 CNY/ton as of January 16, 2026, with a weekly decline of 0.27% and an increase in open interest by 11,103 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - The average processing range for PTA in China was 336.2 CNY/ton as of January 7, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.23% [2] - The weekly average capacity utilization rate for PTA was 74.2%, up by 0.35% from the previous week, with domestic PTA production reaching 1.4312 million tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous week [3] Group 2 - Dongwu Futures indicated that ongoing unrest in Iran and escalating external conflicts will continue to add risk premiums to methanol, with market participants debating geopolitical risks and reduced imports [4] - Ningzheng Futures reported that domestic methanol production is rising while downstream demand is declining, leading to a significant reduction in methanol port inventories, primarily due to low unloading volumes [4] - The methanol market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, with port inventories decreasing but overall market performance remaining weak [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report Core Views Glass - Supply: Last week, two production lines underwent cold repairs, leading to a continued decline in glass output. With current profit pressures on glass factories and high inventories, the intensity of cold repairs has increased. Future focus should be on glass supply. Last week, float glass production was 1.0592 million tons (-14,100 tons), and the national float glass operating rate was 71.95% (-1.08%) [5][14]. - Demand: Year - end rush - order demand has weakened month - on - month, and sales pressure is evident in the northern regions. The weak real - estate market restricts significant upward potential for glass demand, and the number of downstream deep - processing order days remains weak year - on - year. Seasonally, there is end - of - year restocking demand from downstream, which requires future attention. Overall, glass demand will continue to face pressure near the year - end, and attention should be paid to changes in speculative demand. On January 4th, the number of downstream deep - processing order days was 8.6 days (-1.1 days), and last week's float glass weekly apparent demand was 22.5329 million weight boxes (-690,600 weight boxes) [5][18]. - Inventory: Affected by cold repairs, the restocking意愿 of the mid - and downstream has increased. Last week, mid - stream inventory increased, and upstream inventory decreased. With cold repairs implemented, the glass supply - demand pattern has improved. It is advisable to adopt a slightly bullish trading strategy, with the glass index expected to range between 1080 - 1180. Last week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million weight boxes (-1.348 million weight boxes); Hubei's in - factory inventory was 5.375 million weight boxes (-205,000 weight boxes); Shahe's in - factory inventory was 2.6136 million weight boxes (-952,800 weight boxes); and Shahe's trader inventory was 5.08 million weight boxes (+720,000 weight boxes) [5][22]. - Cost and profit: Last week, glass costs fluctuated, and profits also showed mixed trends. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1342 yuan/ton (-2 yuan/ton); the weekly average cost of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 1037 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton); the weekly average cost of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 1047 yuan/ton (-17 yuan/ton). The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton); the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton (-8.6 yuan/ton); the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton (-18.58 yuan/ton) [30][33]. - Key events to watch: Glass output, glass factory inventory, and glass spot prices [5]. 纯碱 - Supply: Last week, the soda ash price strengthened, and the resumption of alkali plant maintenance was rapid, with supply rising month - on - month to a high level. Against the backdrop of new capacity coming on - stream, long - term supply pressure is significant. Spot prices have a great impact on alkali plant maintenance intentions. If prices weaken in the future, alkali plants may start maintenance. Future focus should be on supply. Last week, soda ash production was 753,600 tons (+56,500 tons), including light soda ash production of 349,100 tons (+23,000 tons) and heavy soda ash production of 404,500 tons (+33,500 tons) [6][47]. - Demand: Photovoltaic glass output and float glass output both declined month - on - month. With the price decline of float glass, the expectation of cold repairs has increased, putting pressure on the soda ash demand side. Overall, there is an expectation of weakening demand for heavy soda ash, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily output of float and photovoltaic glass was 238,225 tons (-1770 tons), and the weekly apparent demand for soda ash was 589,200 tons (-138,100 tons) [6][53]. - Inventory: Last week, soda ash inventory increased month - on - month. The strengthening of prices inhibited mid - and downstream purchases, and combined with the recovery of supply, alkali plant inventory accumulation was obvious last week. In the long term, with the expectation of new capacity coming on - stream, alkali plants face significant inventory accumulation pressure. It is advisable to adopt a bearish trading strategy when prices are high, while controlling risks. The soda ash index is expected to range between 1170 - 1280. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons (+164,400 tons), including light soda ash inventory of 836,500 tons (+104,300 tons) and heavy soda ash inventory of 736,200 tons (+60,100 tons) [6][57]. - Cost and profit: According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash costs increased, and profits fluctuated. In North China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - soda process was 1395.85 yuan/ton (+8.45 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the ammonia - soda process was 1307.85 yuan/ton (+0.45 yuan/ton); in East China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the combined - soda process was 1288 yuan/ton (+4.5 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the combined - soda process was 1208 yuan/ton (+4.5 yuan/ton) [61][65]. - Key events to watch: Alkali plant maintenance, alkali plant inventory accumulation, and glass output [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - As of January 9th, the market price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the market price of 5mm float glass in Central China was 1040 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The glass price in the mainstream market was running strongly [10]. Supply - Last week, two production lines underwent cold repairs, and glass output continued to decline. With current weak profits of glass factories and high inventories, the intensity of cold repairs has increased. Future focus should be on glass supply. Last week, float glass production was 1.0592 million tons (-14,100 tons), and the national float glass operating rate was 71.95% (-1.08%) [14]. Demand - Year - end rush - order demand has weakened month - on - month, and sales pressure is evident in the northern regions. The weak real - estate market restricts significant upward potential for glass demand, and the number of downstream deep - processing order days remains weak year - on - year. Seasonally, there is end - of - year restocking demand from downstream, which requires future attention. Overall, glass demand will continue to face pressure near the year - end, and attention should be paid to changes in speculative demand. On January 4th, the number of downstream deep - processing order days was 8.6 days (-1.1 days), and last week's float glass weekly apparent demand was 22.5329 million weight boxes (-690,600 weight boxes) [18]. Inventory - Affected by cold repairs, the restocking意愿 of the mid - and downstream has increased. Last week, mid - stream inventory increased, and upstream inventory decreased. Last week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million weight boxes (-1.348 million weight boxes); Hubei's in - factory inventory was 5.375 million weight boxes (-205,000 weight boxes); Shahe's in - factory inventory was 2.6136 million weight boxes (-952,800 weight boxes); and Shahe's trader inventory was 5.08 million weight boxes (+720,000 weight boxes). In North China, overall inventory decreased, but there was significant differentiation. In Shahe, production enterprises had good sales and significant inventory reduction, driving down the overall inventory in North China, while the surrounding areas had mediocre sales. In Central China, production and sales varied, with the second half of the week showing better production and sales than the first half, and overall inventory decreased compared to the previous period. Last week, the end - of - period inventory of glass factories in East China was 11.425 million weight boxes (-44,600 weight boxes); in North China, it was 9.3296 million weight boxes (-816,800 weight boxes); in Southwest China, it was 11.468 million weight boxes (-232,000 weight boxes); in Central China, it was 6.565 million weight boxes (-185,000 weight boxes) [22][26]. Cost and profit - Last week, glass costs fluctuated, and profits also showed mixed trends. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1342 yuan/ton (-2 yuan/ton); the weekly average cost of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 1037 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton); the weekly average cost of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 1047 yuan/ton (-17 yuan/ton). The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton); the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton (-8.6 yuan/ton); the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton (-18.58 yuan/ton) [30][33]. Basis and spread - As of January 9th, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 124, a week - on - week decrease of 37; the spread between the glass 5 - 9 contracts was - 94, a week - on - week decrease of 10. The glass spot price weakened, and the futures price fluctuated, resulting in a weaker basis and a weaker spread. Currently, the basis level is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly due to the deterioration of the spot supply - demand pattern compared to the past. The glass spread shows a contango structure, indicating a relatively pessimistic market outlook for the near - term contracts [37]. Soda Ash Price - As of January 9th, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the market price of heavy soda ash in Qinghai was 1188 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 66 yuan/ton. The price of light soda ash in the mainstream market remained stable, while the price of heavy soda ash was running strongly [43]. Supply - Last week, the soda ash price strengthened, and the resumption of alkali plant maintenance was rapid, with supply rising month - on - month to a high level. Against the backdrop of new capacity coming on - stream, long - term supply pressure is significant. Spot prices have a great impact on alkali plant maintenance intentions. If prices weaken in the future, alkali plants may start maintenance. Future focus should be on supply. Last week, soda ash production was 753,600 tons (+56,500 tons), including light soda ash production of 349,100 tons (+23,000 tons) and heavy soda ash production of 404,500 tons (+33,500 tons) [47]. Demand - Photovoltaic glass output and float glass output both declined month - on - month. With the price decline of float glass, the expectation of cold repairs has increased, putting pressure on the soda ash demand side. Overall, there is an expectation of weakening demand for heavy soda ash, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily output of float and photovoltaic glass was 238,225 tons (-1770 tons) [53]. Inventory - Last week, soda ash inventory increased month - on - month. The strengthening of prices inhibited mid - and downstream purchases, and combined with the recovery of supply, alkali plant inventory accumulation was obvious last week. In the long term, with the expectation of new capacity coming on - stream, alkali plants face significant inventory accumulation pressure. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons (+164,400 tons), including light soda ash inventory of 836,500 tons (+104,300 tons) and heavy soda ash inventory of 736,200 tons (+60,100 tons) [57]. Cost and profit - According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash costs increased, and profits fluctuated. In North China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - soda process was 1395.85 yuan/ton (+8.45 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the ammonia - soda process was 1307.85 yuan/ton (+0.45 yuan/ton); in East China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the combined - soda process was 1288 yuan/ton (+4.5 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the combined - soda process was 1208 yuan/ton (+4.5 yuan/ton) [61][65]. Basis and spread - As of January 9th, the basis of the soda ash 05 contract was - 40, a week - on - week increase of 37; the spread between the soda ash 5 - 9 contracts was - 67, a week - on - week decrease of 2. The soda ash spot price increased significantly, while the futures price declined after rising, resulting in a stronger basis and a weaker spread. Currently, the basis is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly due to the deterioration of the spot supply - demand pattern compared to the past. The high inventory of alkali plants exerts some pressure on the spot price. The different - month spreads of soda ash show a contango structure, indicating a relatively pessimistic market outlook for the near - term contract supply - demand pattern [69].