晨报 碳酸锂 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 证监许可【2011】14 ...

原油 2025/12/18 原油 能源化工组 能源化工日报 2025-12-18 利多兑现后盘面再度陷入短期盘整，港口倒流叠加转口船发货带来港口库存进一步去化。后续 来看，进口到港仍将处于高位，而港口烯烃装置存检修预期，后续港口压力仍在，目前港口绝 对库存水平依旧较高。供应端企业利润回落到中性位置，开工维持同期高位，整体供应高位。 随着利多的兑现，盘面仍将回归现实逻辑，甲醇基本面仍有一定压力，预计低位整理为主，策 略方面单边建议观望。 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 柴油库存去库 0.39 百万桶至 3.19 百万桶，环比去库 10.91%；燃料油库存累库 1.55 百万桶至 13.79 百万桶，环比累库 12.62%；总成品油累库 0.89 百万桶至 23.93 百万桶，环比累库 3.88%。 燃料油收涨 20.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.84%，报 2415.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 36.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.22%，报 2905.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 0. ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 |数据日报 600 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 供给方面,根据CONAB数据,预测25/26巴西新作产量达到1. 776亿吨。截至12月5日,巴西大豆播种率为90. 3%,上周为88%,去年同 期为94.1%,五年均值为89.8%。根据BAGE,截至12月3日,阿根廷大豆播种进度44.7%,上周值36%。去年同期50%。根据天气预报,短期 无明显天气问题：12-1月国内大豆、豆箱预期季节性去库，传海关延迟放行25天，增加国内对明年一季度豆精供应的纽优,国内进口大 豆开始拍卖,成交溢价高，关注后续拍卖情况。需求方面,畜禽短期预期维持高存栏,产能去化尚不明显,支撑饲用需求,但目前养殖 | 11 结 | 利润呈现亏损,国家政策倾向于控生猪存栏和体重。或影响远月供应；豆粕性价比有所降低:近期豆粕下游成交正常，提货表现良好。 库存方面,国内大豆、豆粕库存处于历史同期高位,豆粕库存去化慢,现货供应压力0较大。预期12-1月加速去库;本周饲料企业豆粕 | | --- | --- | | | 库存天数增加; 整体来说，美豆出口疲软,南美天气暂无明显炒作 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core View - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a sideways and consolidating manner, with its focus shifting downward and showing a weak performance. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner, with the market focusing on capital games and marginal supply - demand changes [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalog Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also have production affected. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2][3] - The price of finished steel continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [2][3] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the main lithium carbonate contract LC2605 closed at 100,600 CNY/ton, with a 1.4% decrease in trading volume, increased open interest, and a continued net - short position of the main force. The basis of the main contract narrowed to - 4,750 CNY/ton, with increased upstream selling willingness and decreased downstream purchasing enthusiasm [2] - Supply - side raw material prices rose slightly year - on - year, strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 51.29%, a 0.27% increase, and the output was 21,998 tons, a 0.33% increase. The lithium spodumene process was the core growth driver, with new projects being launched. The potential cancellation of Jiangte Motor's Shiziling mining right strengthened short - term bullish sentiment, and the commissioning of Xikeng and Inner Mongolia Veraste projects clarified long - term production capacity release [3] - On the demand side, the output of cathode materials decreased slightly and inventory continued to decline. Some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers will raise processing fees in 2026. In the terminal market, the output of new energy vehicles and automotive lithium - ion batteries increased by 17% and 32.7% year - on - year in November, and new energy vehicle sales increased significantly year - on - year as of December 7, with short - term adjustments but long - term resilience [3] - As of December 11, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample continued to decline, with the overall inventory remaining tight, which supported price [3] - Macroeconomic policies such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, and the Central Economic Work Conference provided long - term support for lithium carbonate's supply - demand pattern. Market sentiment was affected by supply - demand balance and various production - capacity news, leading to intensified long - short games. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify due to long - term production capacity release and the net - short position of the main force [4]

保利置业 20251216 摘要 保利置业预计 2025 年完成 500 亿销售目标，但对 2026 年上半年市场 持谨慎态度，面临高基数挑战，中期目标是维持现有销售规模。 公司 2025 年新增项目预计总货值超 500 亿，拿地成本超 250 亿，主要 集中在上海、广州、杭州等高能级城市，立项要求税前成本利润率和 IRR 均不低于 10%。 截至 2025 年上半年，公司库存去化率为 25%，预计全年可达 30%以 上。由于去年已进行较大减值，今年减值压力不大，审计师已进场评估。 公司通过与地方政府谈判，调整商写比或退换地等方式盘活苏州、昆明 等地的城市更新存量资产，以提升收益。 公司通过经营性现金流回笼，净负债率从 100%以上降至 70%左右。 2025 年全口径土地款 250 亿元，虽加大拿地力度，但预计年底净负债 率可能小幅反弹。 公司修订分红政策，将未来三年派息比例提升至 40%，旨在为投资者提 供更稳定透明的派息政策，并适当加大分红比率以补偿投资者。 截至 2025 年 6 月底，公司已售未结转金额为 495 亿元，整体毛利率水 平为 14%，与上半年结转毛利率接近。公司目前可售货值约为 1,8 ...

黑色：出口政策有变 钢价震荡偏弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-12-15 长江期货股份有限公司产业服务总部 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 周度报告：出口政策有变 钢价震荡偏弱 品种 基本面分析 展望 板块综述：上周黑色板块集体走弱，焦煤领跌，周度跌幅约10%，品种间强弱关系为铁矿>热卷>螺纹>焦炭>焦煤。宏观方面：一 系列重磅事件相继落地，美联储12月如期降息25个基点，国内中央经济工作会议在北京召开，定调明年经济工作。产业方面：上周钢材 供需双降，库存顺畅去化，随着铁水产量持续走低，压力逐步向原料端传导，盘面交易负反馈。另外，值得重点关注的是，上周五商务 部、海关总署公布对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，自2026年1月1日起执行，可能影响明年钢材出口。 | 钢材 | 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近，静态估值偏低；驱动方面，重磅会议相 | 低估值、弱驱动，钢价 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 继落地，对盘面提振有限，我国再对钢铁实施出口许可证管理，钢材出口存在走弱预期，产业方 | 震荡偏弱 ...

马棕累库现实施压油脂 油脂周报 2025/12/13 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 周度评估及策略推荐 基本面评估 | 油脂基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马来西亚/印尼棕榈油产量、 基差 出口 | 利润及生柴价差 | 其他植物油供需 | 中国、印度、马来、印尼库存 | | 数据 | P：01-20元/吨 Y：01+260元/吨 马棕11月大幅累库 | 近月马棕到港成本 8930元/吨，棕榈油 | 大豆：北美减种植面积，南美 正在生长 | 国内油脂库存较高，印度库存 同比略低，马来库存偏高，印 | | | OI：01+260元/吨 | 现货8550。生柴价差 中位。 | 菜籽：全球菜籽丰产 葵籽：全球葵籽丰产 | 尼库存偏低 | | 多空评分 | 0 -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | | 简评 | 印尼9月环比减 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed's rate cut and potential bond - buying, along with China's central economic work conference's loose monetary signals, create a warm sentiment in the market despite geopolitical disturbances. For copper, short - term price may rise but consumption may limit the upward trend. For aluminum, with inventory reduction and supply issues, the price is likely to rebound. For lead, low domestic inventory of deliverable products makes the price strong. For zinc, short - term supply reduction and positive market atmosphere may lead to a stronger price. For tin, supply disruptions may drive the price up after macro - risk release. For nickel, short - term price may turn to a volatile state. For lithium carbonate, due to supply - demand uncertainties, it's advisable to wait and see. For alumina, near - cost prices may lead to production cuts, and it's better to observe. For stainless steel, high inventory is a problem, and supply control may bring a turnaround. For cast aluminum alloy, the price may fluctuate within a range [4][5][6][7][10][12][14][16][20][23][26][29] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: After the Fed's rate cut, the US dollar index is weak, and China's central economic work conference raises loose expectations. LME copper 3M rose 2.37% to $11,833/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 94,080 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 875 tons to 165,850 tons. Domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreased. The import loss was about 1,100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term price may still rise, but the weakening consumption may make the upward movement less smooth. The reference range for SHFE copper is 92,500 - 94,600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $11,600 - 11,950/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The central economic work conference's policy signals made non - ferrous metals stronger. LME aluminum rose 1.14% to $2,895/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 22,175 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum's weighted contract positions slightly decreased, and the futures warehouse receipts increased. Domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventories decreased, and the market transaction was average. The LME aluminum inventory decreased, and the cash/3M remained at a discount [6] - **Strategy**: With the domestic inventory decline, high US spot premium, and low LME inventory, along with supply disruptions and stable downstream production, the aluminum price is likely to rebound. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 22,000 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,850 - 2,920/ton [7] Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE lead index rose 0.21% to 17,157 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1,989/ton. The refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 2.29 tons [9] - **Strategy**: The lead ore port inventory decreased, and factory inventory increased. Both primary and secondary lead production rates are high, and downstream battery production also increased. With low domestic deliverable inventory, the lead price shows a strong trend in the short - term [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.39% to 23,004 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $3,087.5/ton. The zinc social inventory decreased by 0.78 tons to 12.82 tons. The LME zinc inventory slowly increased, and the 3 - 15 spread was still high [11] - **Strategy**: Zinc ore and zinc ingot supply have decreased. With the positive market atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector, the zinc price may follow copper and aluminum to rise in the short - term after breaking through the pressure level [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 11, 2025, SHFE tin fell 0.63% to 320,600 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 127 tons. Although the supply shortage has slightly eased, conflicts in Congo (DRC) and Nigeria still cause concerns. The traditional demand is weak, but emerging sectors provide support. The high price makes the spot trading cold [13] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, supply disruptions are the key factors for the price. After the macro - risk is released, the tin price may strengthen. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for domestic contracts is 300,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 42,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE nickel fell 0.65% to 115,400 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of different brands were stable, and the nickel ore price was also stable. The nickel iron price rebounded [15] - **Strategy**: Although there is still a large surplus pressure, the short - term price may turn to a volatile state with the stable nickel iron price and warm macro - atmosphere. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 2.61%, and the LC2605 contract rose 3.02% [19] - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation has not changed, and the inventory decline has narrowed slightly. There are uncertainties in supply release and demand. With high positions, the price may fluctuate greatly. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for the LC2605 contract is 95,800 - 103,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 11, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.28% to 2,534 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price decreased, and the overseas price also dropped. The futures inventory increased [22] - **Strategy**: After the rainy season, the ore shipment is recovering, and the ore price may decline. The alumina production capacity is still in surplus, but with the price close to the cost line, production cuts may increase. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for the domestic contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the stainless - steel contract fell 0.44% to 12,500 yuan/ton. The spot prices in some regions changed slightly, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The social inventory decreased [25] - **Strategy**: High inventory is still a problem. If the supply is effectively controlled and downstream restocking demand is released, the market may turn around [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2602 contract rose 0.17% to 20,945 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions increased, and the inventory decreased [28] - **Strategy**: The cost is firm, and supply disruptions support the price, but the fluctuating demand and delivery pressure limit the upward movement. The price may fluctuate within a range [29]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 碳酸锂连涨两天，12月11日主力合约盘中涨超3%，再次向10万关口冲刺。美联储降息靴子落地，宏观 情绪回暖带动有色板块共振，另外库存仍处于去化阶段，但去库速度预期减缓，后续关注海外及国内复 产消息扰动。短期关注前高位置压力。 现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌50元/吨至92700元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌100元/吨至 90250元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）维持81930元/吨。另外关注仓单回流情况，昨日数据显示，仓 单库存增加760吨至13680吨。全球供应有抬升预期，国内关注江西部分矿山复产情况，海外锂资源供应 预期释放积极，后期或影响库存去化速度。库存数据方面，上周社会库存延续去化，但由于需求边际转 弱，带动总库存天数小幅回升至27天。综上，若近期海内外出现复产，则去库节奏或将面临降速压力， 利多因素或正边际走弱，仍有一定回调概率，关注仓单回流情况，关注实际供应扰动结果。 撰稿：李琪 从业资格：F3046227 交易咨询资格：Z0016145 新浪合作平台光大期货开户 安全快捷有保障 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我 ...

【现货】据Mysteel，截至12月10日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格12800元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧 价格12750元/吨，日环比持平；基差415元/吨，日环比下跌55元/吨。 【操作建议】主力参考12400-12800 【短期观点】震荡调整 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【供应】据Mysteel统计11月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢产量预计345.92万吨，月环比减少6.18万吨，降幅 1.6%，同比增加4.2%；300系179.38万吨，月环比减少0.62万吨，降幅0.3%，同比增加0.4%。12月不锈 钢粗钢预计排产328.57万吨，月环比减少5.02%，同比增加4.2%；其中300系171.47万吨，月环比减少 4.4%，同比减少7.6。目前钢厂整体减产力度有限，年末 ...