能源化工日报 2025-07-04 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.35 美元，跌幅 0.52%，报 67.18 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收跌 0.30 美元，跌幅 0.43%，报 68.85 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 8.10 元，涨幅 1.63%， 报 506.3 元。 数据方面：新加坡 ESG 油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 0.96 百万桶至 12.37 百万桶，环比 去库 7.18%；柴油库存去库 0.47 百万桶至 9.89 百万桶，环比去库 4.54%；燃料油库存累库 0.88 百万桶至 23.38 百万桶，环比累库 3.91%；总成品油去库 0.55 百万桶至 45.65 百万桶，环比去 库 1.18%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前地缘风险重燃，油价重新启动反弹态势，我们认为当前基本面仍处于紧平衡，即 使 OPEC 会议临近，当前油价不宜贸然空配处理。建议投资者把握风控，观望处理。 甲醇 2025/07/04 甲醇 7 月 3 日 09 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current geopolitical risks have gradually subsided, but the short - term decline in oil prices has been significant. It is believed that the current oil prices have reached a reasonable range. Short positions can still be held, but it is not advisable to chase short positions [2]. - For methanol, it has returned to its own fundamentals. The reality is still low inventory, and the spot performance is relatively strong. The valuation of methanol spot itself is relatively high, and the downstream profits have been significantly compressed. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the supply is starting to decline, and the demand for compound fertilizers in the autumn will gradually start. Exports are expected to continue. It is believed that the supply - demand situation of urea may improve slightly, and the short - term downward space for prices is relatively limited. One can pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [5]. - For rubber, there is a market expectation of storing 50,000 tons of smoked sheet rubber. NR and RU have strengthened in a volatile manner. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, conduct short - term operations, and enter and exit quickly. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][10]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is still inventory reduction and weakening. The fundamentals are under pressure, and it is expected to operate weakly in the short term [10]. - For styrene, the cost side is relatively loose, the supply side is increasing in inventory, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season. It is expected that the styrene price may fluctuate downward [13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to remain volatile [15]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand side is expected to decline seasonally. It is expected that the polypropylene price will be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. After the geopolitical situation eases and risks are released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. - For PTA, in July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight reduction in inventory, and the processing fee is supported. After the geopolitical situation eases and risks are released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and in the short term, it may be strong due to the unexpected shutdown of Saudi plants. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies, but beware of ethane import risks [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.56, or 0.86%, to $65.53; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.35, or 0.52%, to $67.28; INE main crude oil futures rose 1.10 yuan, or 0.22%, to 499.4 yuan [2]. - **Data**: At the Fujairah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 7.61 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 5.56%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.54 million barrels to 1.63 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 24.94%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.28 million barrels to 9.13 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.03%; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 18.37 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 6.49% [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 1, the 09 contract rose 3 yuan/ton to 2384 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 270 yuan/ton, and the basis was +136 [3]. - **Analysis**: It has returned to its own fundamentals with low inventory and strong spot performance. The downstream profits have been compressed, and it is expected that the port will not accumulate a large amount of inventory before the 09 contract. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 1, the 09 contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was +39 [5]. - **Analysis**: The number of maintenance devices has increased, and domestic demand has weakened. Exports are continuing, and port inventory is rising. It is expected that the supply - demand situation will improve slightly, and one can pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [5]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: There is a market expectation of storing 50,000 tons of smoked sheet rubber, and NR and RU have strengthened in a volatile manner [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls are optimistic due to the expected production reduction, while bears are pessimistic due to the poor macro - outlook and weak demand. The tire start - up rate has increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations [8][9][10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 68 yuan to 4821 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), the basis was - 81 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 93 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton) [10]. - **Analysis**: The cost side has some upward pressure, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the exports are expected to weaken. The market is expected to operate weakly [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price have both fallen, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - **Analysis**: The cost side is relatively loose, the supply side is increasing in inventory, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season. It is expected that the styrene price may fluctuate downward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7249 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was 51 yuan/ton, weakening by 3 yuan/ton [15]. - **Analysis**: The short - term contradiction has shifted, and the price is expected to remain volatile [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7044 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis was 176 yuan/ton, strengthening by 26 yuan/ton [16]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has rebounded, and the demand side is expected to decline seasonally. It is expected that the price will be bearish in June [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 2 yuan to 6794 yuan, the PX CFR fell 13 dollars to 861 dollars, and the basis was 305 yuan (- 110 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was 160 yuan (- 34 yuan) [18]. - **Analysis**: After the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 4800 yuan, the East China spot price fell 50 yuan to 4980 yuan, the basis was 175 yuan (- 49 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was 126 yuan (- 18 yuan) [20]. - **Analysis**: In July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight reduction in inventory, and the processing fee is supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 4273 yuan, the East China spot price fell 6 yuan to 4328 yuan, the basis was 69 yuan (+ 5 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 21 yuan (+ 6 yuan) [21]. - **Analysis**: The inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and in the short term, it may be strong due to the unexpected shutdown of Saudi plants. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [21].

型劇现日报 聚烯烃广 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月2日 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 7月1日 | 6月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7214 | 7228 | -14 | -0.19% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7249 | 7261 | -12 | -0.17% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | eaal | 7012 | -16 | -0.23% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7044 | 7070 | -26 | -0.37% | | | L2509-2601 | રેટ | 33 | 2 | 6.06% | | | PP2509-2601 | 48 | 58 | -10 | -17.24% | TT/04 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7110 | 7150 | -40 | -0.56% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7170 | 7200 | -30 | -0.42% | | | 华北塑料基差 | -8 ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜价午后增仓上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价增仓上行，主力期价站上 8.07 万关口，沪铜持仓量午后 上升超 2 万张。午后有色普涨，白银也上行明显。宏观层面，上周以 色列和伊朗停战，宏观氛围回暖，此外，美联储降息预期升温，美 元持续下挫，利好铜价。产业层面，Mysteel 电解铜库存为 12.35 万 吨，较上周去库 0.84 万吨。宏观和产业利好共振推动铜价站上 8 万 关口，预计铜价将维持强势。 沪铝 有色金属 | 日报 1. 产业动态 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Weak rebound [2] - Soda ash: Range - bound rebound [2] - Caustic soda: Range - bound rebound [2] - Methanol: Short - term bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously long [2] - Asphalt: Weak [2] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Oil prices return to fundamental pricing. With the consumption peak season and increasing supply, oil prices are in a consolidation phase. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, prices are weakly oscillating. [1][4] - LPG: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side declines, and LPG is under pressure. [1][5] - L: Transaction slows down, inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches eases, the cost side of crude oil weakens, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][9] - PP: Warehouse receipts decrease, the parking ratio rises, the cost side of crude oil and methanol falls, and it is advisable to go short on rebounds. [1][12] - PVC: Calcium carbide prices rise, social inventory increases, factory inventory decreases, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][15] - PX: Domestic and foreign PX device loads are operating at a high level, and there are expectations of both supply and demand increases. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices. [1][17] - PTA/PR: Recently, there are many maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short at high prices. [1][20] - Ethylene glycol: The device load increases, the arrival volume is expected to rise, demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to look for high - level short - selling opportunities. [1][23] - Glass: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the supply side slightly decreases, and the price has a weak rebound. [2][26] - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate and production decline, and there is a range - bound rebound, but high supply and inventory limit the upside. [2][29] - Caustic soda: There is an expectation of inventory reduction through maintenance, and there is a weak rebound at a low level. [2][32] - Methanol: The port has a high basis, but there is a negative feedback on MTO demand. It is short - term bullish. [2][33] - Urea: The supply pressure is still large, but there are expectations for agricultural demand peak season and exports. It is recommended to be cautiously long. [2] - Asphalt: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side of crude oil falls, and it is recommended to go short with a light position. [2] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude oil - **Market review**: On June 27, international oil prices were weakly oscillating. WTI rose 0.43%, Brent rose 0.16%, and SC fell 0.63%. [3] - **Basic logic**: After the US participated in the Israel - Iran conflict on June 23, geopolitical risks eased, and oil prices returned to fundamental pricing. OPEC+ is rumored to increase production by 415,000 barrels per day in August. In terms of supply, Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May. In terms of demand, the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 is 1.29 million barrels per day, lower than 1.3 million barrels per day in May. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending June 20, US crude oil inventory decreased by 5.8 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 4.1 million barrels. [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, with the decline of geopolitical risks, oil prices return to supply - demand fundamental pricing, and it is recommended to go short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [490 - 510]. [4] LPG - **Market review**: On June 27, the PG main contract closed at 4,256 yuan/ton, down 0.21% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged. [5] - **Basic logic**: Recently, geopolitical risks have declined, the cost side of oil prices has adjusted after squeezing out geopolitical premiums, and LPG has oscillated following the cost side. The PDH device profit decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit increased by 25 yuan/ton. The supply of LPG increased, and the demand of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil increased. The refinery inventory and port inventory increased. [6] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, after the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to go short with a light position or buy put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4,170 - 4,300]. [7] L - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of L contracts increased to varying degrees, and the main contract position increased by 2.0%. The spot prices of LL and HD decreased slightly, and the import and production profits changed. The social inventory of PE decreased significantly. [9] - **Basic logic**: With the easing of the situation in the Middle East, the international crude oil price has fallen, and the cost support for polyethylene has weakened. Some previously maintained devices have restarted, and the supply is expected to increase. It is currently the off - season for demand, and the price support is limited. [9] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [10] PP - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position decreased by 1.0%. The spot prices of PP were mostly stable, and the production and import profits changed. The enterprise and trade inventory of PP decreased. [12] - **Basic logic**: The decline in cost has dampened market sentiment, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The supply side has increased device maintenance, but in the off - season, downstream factories mostly purchase on demand, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated. [12] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [13] PVC - **Market review**: The PVC market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, with the spot supply - demand fundamentals being poor, and the market center remains weak. [15] - **Basic logic**: Calcium carbide prices have risen, social inventory has increased, and factory inventory has decreased. Some device maintenance is expected to end this week, and new maintenance is planned at the end of the month, with production expected to decline. It is the domestic off - season for demand, but exports still have support. There are plans to put into production three sets of devices in the future, and the supply side is under pressure. [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure level at integer points. V is expected to be in the range of [4,850 - 5,000]. [15] PX - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,145 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,752 (+30) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread was 206 (+8) yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. [16] - **Basic logic**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and foreign device loads are operating at a high level. The demand side is expected to improve with the resumption of PTA device production and new capacity addition. The inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years. [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6,760 - 6,950]. [18] PTA - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5,025 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,778 (+8) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread was 172 (-2) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 247 (-8) yuan/ton. [19] - **Basic logic**: Recently, there are many PTA maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. Downstream polyester production reduction and terminal weaving operating load continue to decline. Inventory is continuously decreasing, processing fees are high, and the basis is strong. [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4,780 - 4,910]. [21] Ethylene glycol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,340 (-20) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,271 (-22) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread was -43 (-9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 69 (+2) yuan/ton. [22] - **Basic logic**: Recently, the device load has increased, and although the arrival volume is currently low, it is expected to rise. The demand side is expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing but the expectation is narrowing. [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4,220 - 4,310]. [24] Glass - **Market review**: The spot market price quotes are stable, the price has a weak rebound, the basis narrows, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [25] - **Basic logic**: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the market risk preference has recovered. The glass supply has increased and decreased simultaneously this week, and the overall production remains at a low - level fluctuation. The coal - based production still has profits, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The fuel price has increased, which has a certain boost to the glass price. [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1,010 - 1,030], with the 5 - day moving average providing weak support. [26] Soda ash - **Market review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been raised, the price has stabilized, the main contract basis has narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the number of forecasts has increased. [28] - **Basic logic**: Recently, some soda ash devices have reduced their loads, and the overall supply has slightly decreased. However, the industry's operating rate is still at a high level, and the pressure of oversupply in the later period remains. The terminal consumption of soda ash is mediocre, and the glass price is consolidating at a low level, providing general support to the upstream. The manufacturer's inventory continues to accumulate. [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1,185 - 1,220], with a range - bound rebound. [29] Caustic soda - **Market review**: The spot price of caustic soda remains stable, the price has a weak rebound at a low level, the basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [31] - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintain high - load production, and there is an expectation of new capacity addition from June to July. On the demand side, the downstream alumina production has slightly declined, and non - aluminum demand is still weak. The cost support has shifted downwards, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises has increased. [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the weak rebound driven by inventory reduction through maintenance. [32] Methanol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,638 (+19) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 (-24) yuan/ton. The East China basis was 245 (+43) yuan/ton, the port basis was 427 (+79) yuan/ton, the MA9 - 1 month spread was -26 (-10) yuan/ton, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit increased to 56 (-4) US dollars/ton. [33] - **Basic logic**: The overall operating load of methanol has increased, and the arrival volume in July may be lower than expected. The demand side has shown negative feedback, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The port basis is high, and there are still geopolitical military conflict risks. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is short - term bullish. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 09 contract and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract. MA is expected to be in the range of [2,380 - 2,460]. [2] Urea - **Basic logic**: Recently, the urea maintenance intensity has increased, and the daily production has decreased briefly. However, in early July, the device is expected to resume production, and the supply pressure remains large. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural demand peak season is approaching. The fertilizer export growth rate is relatively fast, and there is still cost support. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to be cautiously long and pay attention to short - selling opportunities. UR is expected to be in the range of [1,710 - 1,760]. [2] Asphalt - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, the cost side of crude oil has fallen significantly, the supply has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south". [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3,500 - 3,600]. [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Polyolefins - PP and PE show a supply contraction trend, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations, leading to continuous inventory reduction. However, there is still overall inventory pressure. In the short term, pay attention to the support from inventory reduction. For PP in the medium term, consider short - selling when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [2] Urea - The core driver of the urea market is the resonance of export policies and international events. The secondary drivers are short - term supply contraction and cost reduction. The market is expected to stabilize after a decline, and it is necessary to track factors such as Indian tender results, Chinese quota policy changes, and port shipping progress [4] Crude Oil - Recent oil prices have weakened due to the decline in risk premiums, and the market is weighing the potential OPEC+ production increase plan, the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation, and the uncertainty of US tariff conflicts. The supply is expected to be loose, and the oil price is likely to fluctuate widely in the next week. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7] Chlor - alkali - For caustic soda, the short - term decline driver is insufficient, and the market may fluctuate repeatedly. In the medium term, there may be new production capacity, and the price upside is limited. For PVC, the short - term contradiction is not intensified, but the over - supply problem is prominent in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [12] Methanol - The methanol market shows a differentiation between ports and the inland. The upside and downside of methanol prices are limited, and interval trading is recommended [29] Styrene - The pure benzene market is weak, and the styrene market is stable. There is pressure on the supply - demand margin of styrene, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for styrene driven by raw material factors [34] Polyester - PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. PTA is supported by raw materials but has limited self - driving force. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose, and the price is expected to be weak. Short - fiber has weak supply - demand, and bottle - chip supply - demand may improve [39] Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: L2601, PP2601, and PP2509 prices decreased, while L2509 increased slightly. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PP and PE supply contracted, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations. The overall inventory decreased [2] Urea - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some futures contracts and the spread between contracts changed. The long - short positions of the top 20 traders and the long - short ratio also changed [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea decreased, and the plant and port inventories decreased. The production start - up rate decreased [4] Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different varieties and different months also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ may increase production in August, and the market is concerned about the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation and US tariff conflicts [7] Chlor - alkali - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed, and the spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [11] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of caustic soda and PVC production increased, and the downstream start - up rate of caustic soda and PVC products changed. The inventory of caustic soda and PVC decreased or increased slightly [11][12] Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and the spread between contracts changed. The basis and regional spreads also changed [29] - **Supply and Demand**: The methanol market is differentiated between ports and the inland. The port may face inventory pressure, while the inland may see reduced supply pressure in July [29] Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene upstream raw materials, spot, and futures changed, and the basis and spread between contracts also changed [31][32] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the styrene industry chain changed, and the inventory of some products increased [34] Polyester - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials, downstream polyester products, and related spreads in the polyester industry chain changed [39] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the polyester industry chain changed, and the supply - demand situation of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip is different [39]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is mainly in a state of shock, with different trends for each variety. The demand side is generally weak, but there are certain differences in supply and inventory for each product, which affects their price trends. The market is also affected by factors such as policies, cost, and international trade [2][3][4] Summary by Variety Steel - The steel market is mainly in a state of shock. The demand for rebar remains stable, production increases, and inventory removal slows down. The demand for hot - rolled coils declines, production remains high, and inventory accumulates slightly. The overall domestic demand is weak, but the lower support of the disk is strengthened, and the upside space is restricted [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to be in a state of shock. The global supply is at a high level, and domestic port inventory begins to rise. The terminal demand in the off - season has toughness, and steel mills have no strong willingness to cut production. The market sentiment has improved, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited [3] Coke - The coke price has rebounded significantly, but it is likely to be a short - term market. The coking industry has a price increase expectation, production profit is meager, and production has declined. The overall inventory has decreased, and the purchasing willingness of traders is low [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price has also rebounded significantly, probably a short - term market. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, and the production of coking coal mines has declined. The spot auction market has improved slightly, and the terminal inventory continues to decline [6] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese follows the steel trend. The inventory has decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly production has begun to increase. The manganese ore inventory is expected to increase in the medium - long term, and the short - term inventory is low, with an upward price trend [7] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon follows the steel trend. The iron water production remains high, the export demand has little marginal impact, and the overall demand is acceptable. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The short - term trend is bullish [8]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-27 双焦显著去库，期货价格反弹 钢材：淡季表需稳定，成本支撑仍在 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于2973元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3103元/吨。现货方面，根据钢联数据显示，五大材 钢材库存去化暂停，仅螺纹库存去化继续，表需微增。昨日，全国建材成交9.92万吨。 综合来看：螺纹方面，本周产量继续回升，库存小幅去化，淡季需求表现稳定。热卷方面，库存环比回升，产量 维持高位，热卷价格面临出口及国内消费挑战。整体来看，双焦超跌后叠加安全月检查，成本支撑仍在，且临近 国内宏观政策窗口期，钢材价格维持震荡。关注后续成材淡季需求及库存表现。 策略 单边：无 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁水产量微增，矿价小幅回升 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅上涨。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于705.5元/吨，涨幅0.64%。 现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅上涨，贸易商报价积极性一般，交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按 需补库为主。需求端，本期日均铁水产量242.29万吨， ...

周四，多晶硅、工业硅期货全线走高，主力合约分别收涨3.46%、2.66%，报收31715元/吨、7720元/ 吨。SMM表示，工业硅向上反弹主要是受供应端减产消息影响。三大下游行业对工业硅总需求呈现放 缓趋势 现货价格来看，SMM数据显示，华东不通氧553#在8000—8200元/吨；通氧553#在8100—8300元/吨； 521#在8400—8600元/吨；441#在8400—8600元/吨；421#在8400—9000元/吨；421#有机硅用在9600— 10400元/吨；3303#在9900—10500元/吨。黄埔港、天津地区个别硅价小幅探涨。昆明、四川、新疆、 上海、西北地区硅价暂稳。97硅今日价格同样暂稳。 一德期货：长期供需矛盾并未得到根本性缓解，预计工业硅反弹空间受限 工业硅本轮反弹主要受市场风险偏好改善提振信心、超跌反弹与技术面修复、以及需求边际改善与供应 博弈驱动。中东达成停火协议提升了市场风险偏好，带动工业品期货市场整体回暖。工业硅也受到了短 期资金追逐的支撑。此前工业硅价格已跌至行业平均成本线附近，吸引了抄底资金入场。同时，仓单持 续注销改善了市场流动性，共同推动了短期技术性反弹。需求 ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 免费声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但厂发期货对这些信息的能确性及完整体不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人 员的不同观点、见解及分析方法。并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。 在任何情况下。 报告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不 风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,题权归广发期货所有,未经 构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价。 投资者据此投资, 广发期货书面授权. 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为广发期货。 6 关注微信公众号 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 些业期现日报 | 品中 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7347 | 7399 | -55 | -0.70% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7415 | 7462 | -47 | -0.63% ...