Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, prices have fallen from their highs, and profit margins have declined significantly. In the future, attention should be paid to coal mine复产 after the September 3rd parade and the demand for steel during the peak season. There are expectations of seasonal strengthening in demand from September to October, but high production levels will still test the ability to absorb demand during the peak season. Unilateral short - selling space is limited, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money put options and going long on the ratio of steel to ore can be considered [1]. - For the iron ore industry, the global shipment volume has increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has risen. The demand side is affected by production restrictions during the parade, and iron water production has declined from its high. The fundamentals lack a strong upward driving force, but steel mills' profitability remains high, so iron water production in September will still be at a relatively high level. The demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period is uncertain. A neutral view is taken on unilateral trading, with an expected trading range of 750 - 810, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended [3]. - For the coke industry, futures prices have fluctuated sharply, with spot prices rising and then stabilizing. Supply has been affected by production restrictions, and demand has declined due to steel production restrictions. Inventory is at a medium level, and there is a possibility of price decline in the future. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [5]. - For the coking coal industry, futures prices have trended weakly, and spot prices have been generally weak and stable. Supply has been affected by mine accidents and production suspension for rectification, and demand has declined due to production restrictions in the steel and coking industries. Inventory has decreased slightly, and coal prices may continue to fall in September. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products have shown minor fluctuations. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price increased by 8 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel production has generally decreased, such as the cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu decreasing by 36 yuan/ton. However, the profit margins of steel products have declined significantly, with the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreasing by 33 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron production decreased by 0.7 to 240.1, a decline of 0.3%. The production of five major steel products increased by 6.5 to 884.6, an increase of 0.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 26.8 to 1467.9, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore spot and futures have shown minor fluctuations. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis of PB powder increased by 32.2 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 351.5% [3]. Supply and Demand - The global shipment volume of iron ore increased by 241.0 to 3556.8 (in ten thousand tons), an increase of 7.3%. The arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 132.7 to 2526.0 (in ten thousand tons), an increase of 5.5%. The demand side was affected by production restrictions, with the daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills decreasing by 0.6 to 240.1, a decline of 0.2% [3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 13776.51 (in ten thousand tons), an increase of 0.1%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.3 to 9007.2 (in ten thousand tons), a decline of 0.6% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures have fluctuated. For example, the 01 - contract price of coke increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 6 yuan/ton. The profit margins of the coking and coal - mining industries have declined [5]. Supply and Demand - The production of coke and coking coal has been affected by production restrictions. The daily average production of coke in all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.9 to 64.5 (in ten thousand tons), a decline of 1.4%. The demand for coke and coking coal has also decreased due to steel production restrictions [5]. Inventory - The inventory of coke and coking coal has shown different trends. The total coke inventory decreased slightly by 1.1 to 887.5 (in ten thousand tons), a decline of 0.1%. The coking coal inventory in some areas has decreased, while in others, it has increased slightly [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Index futures [1][5] - **Bearish**: Live pigs, eggs [1][40][42] - **Neutral**: Treasury bonds, double cokes, rebar, glass, copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, silver, gold, PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, polyolefins, cotton, cotton yarn, PTA, apples, dates, corn, soybean meal, oils [1][5][7][9][10][11][15][16][17][19][21][24][26][28][29][31][33][34][35][36][42][44][46] Core Views - A shares opened higher in September, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering its August losses and the ChiNext Index hitting a new high. The market is expected to continue to strengthen in the medium to long term due to the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, the approaching Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and the slight increase in the August PMI [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain stable in the short term, but the upside potential is limited due to the lack of strong support and the potential for an increase in risk appetite [5]. - The coal market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to weak downstream demand and a lack of clear supply - demand signals [7]. - The steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall first and then rise in September. The market is waiting for signs of demand recovery [7]. - The glass market is expected to rebound in the short term due to improved demand and positive macro - sentiment. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with prices likely to rise due to the expected increase in demand during the peak season and the high level of domestic maintenance in September and October [10]. - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to rise due to the approaching peak season and the improvement in downstream demand. It is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - The nickel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall due to the oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or sell on rallies [16]. - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the tight supply of tin ore. It is recommended to trade within a range [16]. - The precious metals market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in September. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. - The PVC market is expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to be under pressure due to the high inventory and the uncertain export situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5000 - level pressure [19]. - The caustic soda market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the rigid demand from the alumina industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 - level support [21]. - The styrene market is expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to be under pressure due to the weakening supply - demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - level pressure [24]. - The rubber market is expected to be strong in the short term, with prices likely to continue to rise due to the high raw material prices and the decline in inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15600 - level support [26]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall first and then rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1680 - 1720 support [28]. - The methanol market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be limited by the high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply - demand situation [30]. - The polyolefin market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the approaching peak season. It is recommended to pay attention to the specified price ranges [31]. - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by the global supply - demand situation and the macro - environment. It is recommended to hedge risks [34]. - The PTA market is expected to be strong in the short term, with prices likely to rise due to the good inventory reduction and the possible suspension of OPEC's production increase in September. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4900 - level pressure [34]. - The apple market is expected to be strong in the short term, with prices likely to remain high due to the limited supply of high - quality early - maturing apples [36]. - The date market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to remain stable due to the normal progress of the sugar - increasing stage and the stable demand [36]. - The live pig market is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with prices likely to be limited by the large supply. It is recommended to take corresponding short - selling and arbitrage strategies [38]. - The egg market is expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to be limited by the high supply. It is recommended to sell on rallies [41]. - The corn market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by the new crop supply and the cost. It is recommended to sell on rallies [42]. - The soybean meal market is expected to have limited upside potential in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the cost. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3030 - level support [44]. - The oil market is expected to be in a high - level adjustment phase in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by various factors. It is recommended to wait for the end of the adjustment and then buy [46]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Index Futures**: The A - share market rose on Monday. The market is expected to strengthen in the medium to long term due to the Fed's expected interest rate cut, policy expectations, and economic data [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market continued to recover on Monday, but the upside potential is limited due to the lack of strong support and the potential increase in risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Double Cokes**: The coal market is "mostly down and less up", with weak downstream demand. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to trade within a range [7]. - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fell on Monday. The market is expected to be volatile in September, with prices likely to fall first and then rise. It is recommended to trade in bands [7]. - **Glass**: The supply is stable, and the demand has improved. The market is expected to rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is mainly affected by macro - factors and is expected to remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to hold a moderate long position at low levels [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has increased, and the demand for downstream products is improving. It is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is in a state of oversupply, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell on rallies [16]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand for semiconductors is expected to recover. It is recommended to trade within a range [16]. - **Silver and Gold**: The prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported by the expected Fed interest rate cut. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The PVC market is expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and uncertain exports. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5000 - level pressure [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the alumina industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 - level support [21]. - **Styrene**: The styrene market is expected to be weak in the short term due to weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - level pressure [24]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is expected to be strong in the short term due to high raw material prices and declining inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15600 - level support [26]. - **Urea**: The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall first and then rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the price support level [28]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is expected to be stable in the short term, with limited upside potential due to high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to supply - demand changes [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the approaching peak season. It is recommended to pay attention to the specified price ranges [31]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving, but the new cotton output is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to hedge risks [34]. - **PTA**: The PTA market has seen good inventory reduction, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4900 - level pressure [34]. - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and the market is expected to remain strong in the short term [36]. - **Dates**: The date market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to remain stable [36]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: The live pig market is under pressure due to large supply. It is recommended to take corresponding short - selling and arbitrage strategies [38]. - **Eggs**: The egg market is expected to be weak in the short term due to high supply. It is recommended to sell on rallies [41]. - **Corn**: The corn market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by new crop supply and cost. It is recommended to sell on rallies [42]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market has limited upside potential in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by cost. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3030 - level support [44]. - **Oils**: The oil market is in a high - level adjustment phase in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the end of the adjustment and then buy [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [3] - Rubber: Oscillating [5] - Methanol: Oscillating, with a bias towards strength [5] - Polyolefins: Oscillating [6] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating, with a bias towards weakness [6] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical commodities on September 2, 2025. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand dynamics, and cost - end fluctuations to provide views on price trends for each commodity. For example, due to geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and the Russia - Ukraine situation, the oil market's geopolitical pricing may rise again, and oil prices can be considered from a rebound perspective [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Monday, Brent's new November contract rose 0.67 dollars to 68.15 dollars per barrel, a 0.99% increase. SC2510 closed at 488.9 yuan per barrel, up 5.3 yuan or 1.10%. Geopolitical factors such as the possible suspension of diplomatic efforts and the Red Sea missile incident may lead to a rebound in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2510) rose 0.25% to 2832 yuan per ton, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2511) fell 0.49% to 3474 yuan per ton. The expected reduction in Western arbitrage cargo inflows in September may boost the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil, but overall demand for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks significant highlights [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt (BU2510) rose 1% to 3540 yuan per ton. In September, the demand for road construction in the north increases, but the rise in supply in North China and Northeast China may limit price increases. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease, and prices may rise further [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4772 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. EG2601 closed at 4427 yuan per ton, down 0.87%. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume is increasing. TA prices are expected to be supported and oscillate. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate with a bias towards strength due to supply reduction and demand increase [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) remained unchanged at 15860 yuan per ton, while the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 15 yuan to 12680 yuan per ton. Supply weather is favorable, raw material prices fluctuate slightly, demand is stable domestically and weak overseas, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: Due to the recovery of profits, MTO devices may resume production. In September, supply growth is limited, demand is expected to pick up, and inventory is expected to peak. Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5]. - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, inventory is gradually transferred from society to downstream, and fundamentals have few contradictions. Polyolefin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)**: Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and demand for PVC downstream products is limited. With India's higher anti - dumping duties, exports are expected to decline. PVC prices in September are expected to oscillate with a bias towards weakness [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. Market News - Trump is considering suspending diplomatic efforts until more flexibility is shown. Europe is trying to persuade Zelensky to wait for better conditions, which may disrupt the progress made since the Russia - US summit. The EU is formulating a plan to deploy multinational forces to Ukraine [10]. - Despite US pressure, Russia remains India's largest crude oil supplier, accounting for 31.4% of India's crude oil imports in July [10]. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents line charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows line charts of the basis of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [27][28][29] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides line charts of spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][43][44] - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: It presents line charts of spreads between different commodities, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][59][60] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows line charts of production profits for some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [67][68][69] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [73][74][75]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Logs [1] - **Bearish**: PVC Pipe, Galvanized Pipe, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Live Pigs [1] - **Sideways**: Aluminium, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Cotton Yarn, Paper Pulp, Asphalt, Styrene, PTA, Naphtha, Short Fiber, Urea, PF, PVC, PG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Report's Core View - After the continuous strong and volume - increasing rise of stock index futures, capital flow amplifies market volatility. With the approaching of key macro - event nodes in September, the index is expected to fluctuate more, and it is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to be mainly long [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Multiple factors drive the prices of different commodities. For example, the expectation of Fed rate cuts and supply - demand situations affect metal prices; seasonal factors, production, and consumption situations influence agricultural product prices; and supply - demand, policy, and geopolitical factors impact energy and chemical product prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index futures may experience increased volatility in September, and it is advisable to reduce positions and focus on long positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy favor bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is boosted by safe - haven demand and rate - cut expectations [1]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper is expected to be strong due to Fed rate - cut expectations and tight supply [1]. - Aluminium prices are volatile under domestic consumption off - season and Fed rate - cut expectations [1]. - Alumina has weak fundamentals, but there are opportunities to go long in the far - month contracts [1]. - Zinc prices have limited downside, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment, Fed rate - cut expectations, and supply - demand in the short term [1]. - Tin prices are trending well in the short term due to seasonal maintenance and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore have neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro - drivers [1]. - PVC pipe and galvanized pipe are bearish due to long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals, and high inventory [1]. - Glass and soda ash are under pressure due to supply surplus [1]. - Coking coal and coke have weakening fundamentals and are expected to be weak [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean oil is re - priced due to factors such as reduced soybean arrivals, consumption season, and trade flow [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are supported by reduced production and supply - reduction expectations [1]. - Cotton has a near - month squeeze logic, and the 01 contract has limited upside [1]. - Sugar is running strongly but with limited height [1]. - Corn is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and new - grain listing should be monitored [1]. - MO1 has limited downside due to import - cost support [1]. - Paper pulp's 11 - 1 reverse spread can be considered [1]. - Logs are expected to oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - Live pigs are bearish due to increased supply and reduced cost [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil are affected by factors such as India's procurement change, OPEC+ production increase, and tariff issues [1]. - Asphalt's short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and follows crude oil [1]. - Styrene is affected by rainfall, cost, and inventory factors [1]. - PTA's production has recovered, and profits have been repaired [1]. - Naphtha and related products are affected by industry reform and supply - demand changes [1]. - Short fiber has increased factory maintenance and growing warehouse receipts [1]. - Urea has limited upside and cost - end support [1]. - PF and PVC are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - PG is affected by multiple factors such as capacity reduction, trade, and supply - demand [1]. - Container shipping European Line's freight rate is expected to decline [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, which may drive non - ferrous metal varieties including nickel to strengthen. Each metal has different supply - demand situations, and price trends vary accordingly [1][3][5][7][8][10][11][14][16][18][20] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.97% last week, and LME copper rose 0.99% to $9906/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.7 million tons, with SHFE inventory decreasing by 0.2 to 8.0 million tons, LME inventory increasing by 0.3 to 15.9 million tons, and COMEX inventory increasing by 0.6 to 25.2 million tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons [1] - **Market situation**: The spot import window remained open, the premium of Yangshan copper increased. The LME market was at a discount, and the domestic spot had a higher premium. The supply of scrap copper was tight, and the operating rates of refined copper rod and cable enterprises declined [1] - **Price forecast**: The price is expected to be volatile and strong, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 78600 - 80800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9780 - 10050/ton [1] Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose 0.46% to $2619/ton on Friday, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20725 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the three domestic regions decreased by 0.55 million tons to 45.7 million tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in Foshan and Wuxi increased by 0.15 million tons to 9.5 million tons [3] - **Market situation**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic spot was at a discount. The downstream maintained rigid demand procurement [3] - **Price forecast**: The price support is strong. If the inventory inflection point appears, the price will have stronger upward momentum. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20600 - 20850 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2590 - 2650/ton [3] Lead - **Price**: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.13% to 16883 yuan/ton last Friday, and LME lead 3S fell $2 to $1990/ton [5] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 6.52 million tons [5] - **Market situation**: The lead concentrate inventory decreased, the processing fee continued to decline. The production of primary smelters was high, and the finished product inventory increased. The raw materials of secondary smelters were in short supply, and some enterprises had maintenance. The downstream operating rate decreased slightly [5] - **Price forecast**: The price is expected to be strong due to the high expectation of Fed rate cuts and the narrowing supply [5] Zinc - **Price**: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.16% to 22140 yuan/ton last Friday, and LME zinc 3S rose $19.5 to $2796.5/ton [7] - **Inventory**: The zinc concentrate entered the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the social inventory of zinc ingots continued to increase rapidly to 14.45 million tons [7] - **Market situation**: The supply of zinc concentrate increased, the smelting output continued to rise, and the downstream operating rate did not improve significantly [7] - **Price forecast**: There is a divergence between the macro background and the industrial situation. The short - term decline space is limited, showing a low - level oscillation pattern [7] Tin - **Price**: The domestic tin price soared last week [8] - **Supply**: The supply of tin ore was in short supply. A large - scale tin smelter in Yunnan planned to have maintenance in September, and Indonesia's export was affected. The production of refined tin in September is expected to decline by 29.89% [8] - **Demand**: It was in the consumption off - season, and the traditional consumption areas were weak. Although AI computing power increased some demand, it had limited impact on the overall demand [8] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of tin ingots increased slightly to 10002 tons [8] - **Price forecast**: The price is expected to be strong and oscillating [8] Nickel - **Nickel ore**: The price remained stable. The supply in Indonesia was relatively sufficient, and the iron mills' acceptance of the price was okay [10] - **Nickel iron**: The supply increase was limited due to the loss of domestic iron mills. The demand was supported by the expected increase in stainless steel production in August and September [10] - **Intermediate products**: The supply was tight, and the cost increased. The price is expected to be strong [10] - **Price forecast**: The short - term macro atmosphere is positive. The price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14500 - 16500/ton [11][12] Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index fell 0.32% on Friday and 4.05% last week. The LC2511 contract price fell 1.23% on Friday and 2.25% last week [14] - **Market situation**: The market sentiment cooled down, and the supply - demand relationship was slowly repaired. The inventory decreased due to the decline in lithium mica supply [14] - **Price forecast**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's main contract is expected to operate in the range of 74500 - 79900 yuan/ton [14] Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 0.95% to 3031 yuan/ton on August 29 [16] - **Market situation**: The supply of ore was disturbed, and the macro sentiment improved [16] - **Price forecast**: The short - term downward space is limited, and the oversupply situation cannot support continuous price rebound. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2900 - 3300 yuan/ton [16] Stainless Steel - **Price**: The main contract closed at 12815 yuan/ton on Friday, down 0.27% [18] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 0.81% to 108.30 million tons, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 0.63% to 65.45 million tons [18] - **Market situation**: The downstream demand was insufficient, and the trading was mainly for on - demand replenishment. The demand is expected to pick up in the peak season [18] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract remained at 20350 yuan/ton [20] - **Inventory**: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three domestic regions increased by 0.01 to 3.30 million tons [20] - **Market situation**: It was transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, the cost support was strong, and the market activity tended to increase [20] - **Price forecast**: The price may run at a high level [20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The processing fee of copper concentrates has fallen into the negative range, and Codelco in Chile has lowered its annual production forecast, intensifying supply concerns [4]. - The social inventory has decreased this week, and the absolute quantity remains at a low level. The approaching peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" drive the expectation of marginal improvement in demand [4]. - The three major exchanges, LME, COMEX, and SHFE, have collectively accumulated inventory, reflecting weak terminal consumption during the off - season [4]. - The uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm has increased, and the decline in market sentiment suppresses the support of the financial attribute [4]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper are mixed, with the contradiction between tight ore supply and inventory accumulation coexisting. Coupled with the repeated macro - drivers, it will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, waiting for the verification of peak - season demand and the clarification of policy signals [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) | Futures Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Position | Weekly Position Change | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main Contract | 79,410 yuan/ton | +0.91% | 173,826 | +52,924 | 71,061 | | Shanghai Copper Index Weighted | 79,394 yuan/ton | +0.95% | 479,332 | +18,695 | 156,498 | | International Copper | 70,490 yuan/ton | +1.08% | 3,755 | -217 | 4,869 | | LME Copper 3 - month | $9,839.5/ton | +1.22% | 239,014 | -38,282 | 14,271 | | COMEX Copper | $454.45/lb | +2.17% | 105,404 | +64,381 | 28,789 | [6] 3.2 Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 79,390 | +560 | +0.71% | | Shanghai Wumaohui | yuan/ton | 79,355 | +530 | +0.67% | | Guangdong Southern Storage | yuan/ton | 79,220 | +470 | +0.6% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 79,450 | +500 | +0.63% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 250 | +100 | +66.67% | | Shanghai Wumaohui Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 185 | +50 | +37.04% | | Guangdong Southern Storage Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 210 | +45 | +27.27% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 175 | +15 | +9.38% | | LME Copper (Spot/3 - month) Premium/Discount | $/ton | -82.79 | +7.96 | -8.77% | | LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) Premium/Discount | $/ton | -167.53 | -1.05 | +0.63% | [11][12] 3.3 Advanced Copper Data (Weekly) | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | 330.65 | +95.84 | +40.82% | | Copper Concentrate TC | $/ton | -41.06 | -2.86 | +7.49% | | Copper - Aluminum Ratio | Ratio | 3.8002 | -0.0087 | -0.23% | | Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference | yuan/ton | 1,252.66 | +218.62 | +21.14% | [13] 3.4 Copper Inventory (Weekly) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Value | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 21,412 | -2,736 | -11.33% | | International Copper Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 5,597 | -528 | -8.62% | | Shanghai Copper Inventory | tons | 79,748 | -1,950 | -2.39% | | LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 144,850 | -750 | -0.52% | | LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipt | tons | 13,100 | +2,350 | +21.86% | | LME Copper Inventory | tons | 157,950 | +1,600 | +1.02% | | COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 141,869 | +4,626 | +3.37% | | COMEX Copper Unregistered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 133,357 | -1,096 | -0.82% | | COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 275,226 | +3,530 | +1.3% | | Copper Ore Port Inventory | million tons | 47.3 | +5.1 | +12.09% | | Social Inventory | million tons | 41.82 | +0.43 | +1.04% | [19][21] 3.5 Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) | Production Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Production | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 127 | +14% | 862.3 | +9.9% | | Copper Products Production | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 216.9 | +8.3% | 1423.7 | +9.4% | [24] 3.6 Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) | Capacity Type | Date | Unit | Annual Total Capacity | Capacity Utilization | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 1,584 | 61.32% | -1% | -0.85% | | Scrap Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 819 | 26.73% | -5.28% | -3.43% | | Copper Plate and Strip Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 359 | 65.73% | -3% | -5.66% | | Copper Bar Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 228.65 | 50.45% | -1.07% | -1.47% | | Copper Tube Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 278.3 | 67.88% | -4.37% | +3.83% | [26] 3.7 Copper Element Imports (Monthly) | Import Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Concentrate Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 256.0072 | +18% | 1,731.7445 | +8% | | Anode Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 84,217 | +19% | 466,925 | -12% | | Cathode Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 296,896 | +8% | 1,943,043 | -6% | | Scrap Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 190,078 | -2% | 1,335,483 | -1% | | Copper Products Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 480,000 | +10% | 3,110,000 | -2.6% | [30]

8月28日，集运欧线主力合约以3.31%的跌幅领跌国内商品市场。据上海航运交易所周一发布的数据显示，截至2025年8月25日，上海出口集装箱结算运价指 数（欧洲航线）报1990.20点，与前一期相比跌8.7%。淡季悲观情绪对盘面形成压制，高价订单推进缓慢，还有部分航司已调降运价。此外，关税问题仍然 对欧洲的贸易前景有不确定的影响。申银万国期货表示，当前9月第二周大柜运价均价降至2200美元左右，周二马士基第37周开舱，至鹿特丹大柜报价1900 美元，周度环比下降200美元，随着各船司运价跟降速度的加快，到9月中旬大柜运价预计将降至2000美元左右，欧线淡季仍在进行中。参考去年淡季表现， 运价下行加快时间点主要是在9月现货揽货压力较大的时期，目前船司在运力调控方面意愿也相对有限，预计短期运价将延续阶段性下行，关注后续船司跟 降情况以及贴水对于市场的支撑。 国内商品期货市场8月28日跌多涨少，其中集运欧线主力合约跌超3%；碳酸锂、鸡蛋主力合约跌超2%；对二甲苯、生猪、PTA、短纤、棕榈油主力合约跌超 1%。上涨品种中，苹果主力合约收涨2.00%；铁矿石、玉米、BR橡胶主力合约涨超1%。 截至28日下午收盘，中证商 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5]. - Specific varieties: iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all rated as "oscillation" [6][7][10][11][13][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black price is in a weak oscillation. Although the demand is weakly expected in the peak season, the cost supply is disturbed, and there is a driving force for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. The follow - up should focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [5]. - After the decline of the glass futures and spot market sentiment, the supply is expected to be stable, and the short - term is expected to oscillate widely. The long - term price center will decline [13][14]. - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element (Iron Ore) - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, close to the same period last year, with relatively stable total supply [2]. - Demand: The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter decreased significantly. There is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production, but the impact is limited. After the parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased this week, and the total inventory slightly declined [2]. - Outlook: The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. 3.2 Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - Supply: Production in some mines is restricted, and coal mine safety inspections are increasing. Although the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port remains high, overall, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [2]. - Demand: The eighth round of coke price increase is restarted, and the demand for coking coal has slightly declined in the short term. Downstream purchases on demand, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but there is no obvious inventory pressure [2]. - Outlook: Before the parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of coke price increase to be implemented, the futures market is still supported [11]. Coke - Supply: After the seventh - round price increase was fully implemented, the profits of coking enterprises recovered. As the parade approaches, the start - up of some coking enterprises is restricted, while others maintain normal production [10]. - Demand: Downstream steel mills have good profits and high production willingness, but affected by the parade, the start - up of some steel mills in North China will also be restricted, and the demand is affected [10]. - Outlook: The game of the eighth - round price increase continues. Before the parade, the futures market is still supported, but the actual implementation is difficult [10]. 3.3 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - Supply: The production level has reached a high point this year, and the market supply pressure is gradually accumulating [2]. - Demand: Steel mills' profits are good, but as the parade approaches, steel production will decline slightly, and the short - term demand for manganese silicon is expected to decline [2]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited due to cost support, but the long - term price center may decline [16]. Ferrosilicon - Supply: Manufacturers' resumption of production has accelerated, and production has gradually reached a high level [17]. - Demand: Steel production will decline slightly during the parade, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking will decline. The magnesium market has supply pressure and weak demand [17]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited, but the long - term price center is expected to decline [17][18]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable [2]. - Demand: The demand in the off - season has declined, but the deep - processing orders have increased month - on - month. The inventory days of raw sheets have reached a high point this year, and the mid - stream and downstream lack the ability to replenish inventory [13]. - Outlook: The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price is expected to decline after returning to fundamental trading [13][14]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The long - term supply pressure still exists, and short - term production is affected. It is expected that both production capacity and output will increase in the future [15]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain stable, and the demand for light soda ash is flat, with weak downstream replenishment sentiment [15]. - Outlook: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline [15]. 3.6 Steel - Supply: The production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased. The supply of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little [6]. - Demand: The demand for rebar has improved month - on - month, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains at a high level, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have increased, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down [6]. - Outlook: The short - term futures market is expected to oscillate widely, and the follow - up should focus on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [6]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Supply: The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased week - on - week [8]. - Demand: The profit of electric furnaces is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process furnaces has slightly increased, and the total daily consumption has increased slightly [8]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to oscillate [8].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on polyolefins (plastic PP) dated August 27, 2024, prepared by the Commodity Research Institute's Energy and Chemicals Research Department [2] - The report includes relevant data, market analysis, trading strategies, and relevant charts [3][5][11] Group 2: Relevant Data Plastic and PP Futures and Spot Prices - Plastic futures prices (L2605, L2509, L2601) decreased by -0.62%, -0.50%, -0.51% respectively; PP futures prices (PP2605, PP2509, PP2601) decreased by -0.44%, -0.37%, -0.35% respectively [4] - Spot prices of North China linear and East China linear decreased by -0.41% and -0.27% respectively; North China drawstring and East China drawstring decreased by -0.15% and -0.43% respectively [4] Basis and Spread - Plastic 09, 01, 05 basis increased by 7, 8, 16 respectively; PP 09, 01, 05 basis decreased by -4, -5, 1 respectively [4] - Plastic 9 - 1 spread increased by 1, 1 - 5 spread increased by 8; PP 9 - 1 spread decreased by -1, 1 - 5 spread increased by 6 [4] Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil main contract price increased by 0.01%; naphtha price increased by 1.27%; Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by 1.20%; Shandong propylene price remained unchanged [4] Profits - Plastic import profit decreased by 5.82%, oil - made PE profit increased by -627.48%; PP import profit decreased by 2.76%, oil - made PP profit increased by -28.44% [4] Production Ratios - Linear production ratio remained unchanged at 36.1%, PE maintenance ratio remained unchanged at 14.1%; PP drawstring production ratio and maintenance ratio data were unavailable [4] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Review - In the plastic spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China showed partial declines or fluctuations; in the PP spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased [6] Relevant Information - Main producers' inventory was 70.5 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 3.42%; inventory in the same period last year was 72 tons [7] Logical Analysis - New plastic production capacity will slow down in the second half of the year, while PP will face the launch of a 900,000 - ton new device in Ningbo Daxie Phase II, with greater production pressure than PE [9] - Inventory maintenance is expected to decline significantly in the fourth quarter; there is still an expectation of peak - season demand in "Golden September and Silver October", downstream start - up has rebounded, but the current pace is slow, and orders are weaker year - on - year [9] - Plastic is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while PP will be range - bound [9] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Plastic is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while PP will be range - bound [10] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [11] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [11] Group 5: Relevant Charts - The report includes 18 charts showing the price trends, basis, spreads, upstream prices, profits, production ratios, and inventory of plastic and PP contracts [12][15][17][20][24][27][31][34][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyethylene is likely to rise in the short - term but has limited upside potential, facing pressure at the [7600] price level for the 12601 contract. The demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, with marginal improvement in the pattern and short - term upward drivers. However, the supply pressure remains high, with new capacity being put into production and high existing production loads [6]. - For different participants in the industrial chain, different hedging strategies are recommended. For example, factories and coal - chemical enterprises with high inventory and concerns about PE price drops can buy put options and short futures contracts on the futures market; traders and end - customers can take corresponding actions according to their purchase and inventory management needs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis and Spreads - **Standard Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products has risen synchronously, and the basis has weakened slightly. The basis in East China has weakened by 10 to around - 100 yuan/ton, in North China by 30 to around - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China by 30 to 20 yuan/ton [17]. - **Non - standard Basis**: The non - standard basis of plastics has a stronger trend than the standard basis [18]. - **Futures Spreads**: The 1 - 5 month spread has fallen back to the previous low of around - 10 this week. The L - PP01 spread has risen steadily and is currently close to 300 yuan/ton. Overall, the supply pressure of PP is greater, while L has more maintenance and the demand for agricultural films starts in September [42]. 3.2. Domestic Production - end Profits and Supply - **Cost Curve**: The oil - based process has the largest production capacity share (67.22%), with the East China oil - based cost at 7443 yuan/ton; the coal - based process (18.82%) is an important supplement with relatively high profits, and the Inner Mongolia coal - based cost is 5250 yuan/ton [54][55]. - **Production Profits**: This week, oil prices continued to fluctuate, and the oil - based end profits have recovered compared with the previous period. The Northeast Asian ethylene price has remained stable, and the profit from purchasing ethylene for production has weakened recently. The coal price has rebounded, but the CTO profit remains high, while the inland MTO profit has deteriorated under tight supply and demand [57]. - **Domestic Capacity and Production**: As of August 2025, the newly added domestic PE capacity is 370.5 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 10.38%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 613 million tons, with an estimated capacity growth rate of 17.17%. This week, the PE production was 61.81 million tons, a decrease of 4.31 million tons compared with the previous week, and the operating rate decreased by 8.1% to 78.72% due to many device overhauls [78][79][80]. 3.3. US Dollar Price and Import Profit - **US Dollar Price**: The northwest European price is at a high level, especially for LD and ED. The US dollar price in the Chinese market has shown mixed trends; the Southeast Asian price is stable with weak demand, and the South Asian price has declined due to poor rainy - season demand [102]. - **Import Profit**: The import windows for LD and some HD have opened, and the market offers have increased compared with the previous period [111]. 3.4. Downstream Operation and Profit - **Downstream Operation**: As the peak season approaches, the demand is gradually recovering. Some agricultural film enterprises have seen a slight increase in orders, but it is still in the off - season and weaker than previous years. The packaging film operation rate has increased by 0.8% month - on - month, and the operation rates of pipes, blow - molding, and injection - molding have also changed to different extents [128]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profits of plastic film products such as agricultural film and packaging film are also affected by factors such as raw material prices and market demand, but specific profit data are not comprehensively summarized in the text. 3.5. Inventory - This week, the inventory of production enterprises has increased by 5.74 million tons to 50.19 million tons, with the inventory of two major state - owned oil companies increasing by 5.8 million tons and the coal - based inventory decreasing by 0.06 million tons. The social inventory has decreased by 1.21 million tons to 55.65 million tons. The downstream restocking and transactions are weak, with the upstream inventory accumulating and the social inventory continuing to decline [151]. 3.6. Position, Transaction, and Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Position**: The positions of the plastic 01, 05, and 09 contracts on August 22, 2025, are 577,012, 571,625, and 600,000 respectively [161]. - **Transaction Volume**: The transaction volumes of the plastic 01, 05, and 09 contracts on August 22, 2025, are 900,022, 800,000, and 1,119,745 respectively [162][163][164]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of L registered warehouse receipts on August 22, 2025, is also provided in the document, but specific analysis is not further elaborated [169].