点评： 1、一季度国内经济实现"开门红"，二季度将实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 会议对当前经济形势做出研判，指出"我国经济呈现向好态势"，但同时，"经济持续回升向 好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大"。从数据来看，2025年一季度GDP增长5.4%， 增速高于市场预期和全年增长目标，国民经济实现良好开局，经济面修复改善。宏观政策方面， 会议强调"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策"。财政政策方面，4月财政部启动今年1.3万亿元超长期特别国债和5000亿元中央金融机构 注资特别国债发行，加之会议提出"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用"，预 计未来一段时间地方政府债券还会保持较快发行节奏。总体看，国内财政政策空间充足。货币政 策方面，由于一季度经济超预期，4月LPR继续保持不变。此外，目前我国经济修复动能呈现增强 趋势，A股市场整体表现较为韧性，人民币汇率短期面临一定压力，所以短期宽货币政策或有所 延后。但与此同时，受外部经贸环境变化影响，宏观政策助力稳增长的必要性上升，4月央行MLF 净投放达到5000亿元，为连续第二个月加量续作，此次会议也延 ...

2025 年 04 月 28 日 业绩密集披露期，整体反馈符合预期 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料(申万) | -0.9 | 6.4 | -8.1 | | 沪深 300 | -3.3 | -0.8 | 5.7 | 市场表现 -10 0 10 20 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -30 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：社零数据 超预期暨一季度业绩前瞻》2025- 04-21 2、《食品饮料行业点评报告：内需 持续释放，3 月社零数据超预期》 2025-04-18 3、《食品饮料行业周报：外围环境 持续承压，期待消费需求回暖》 ...

中国银河证券：1-2月服装社零迎开门红 全年服装 内需消费或逐季环比改善 中国银河（601881）证券发布研报称，2025年1-2月全国社零总额83731亿元，同比增长4.0%。该行 认为2025全年服装内需消费将会呈现逐季度环比改善趋势。政府大力提振内需的政策方向上有望受益。 户外场景渗透，国产体育龙头在丰富品类，精细化管理上具有竞争优势。家纺消费场景修复，消费补贴 加持需求提振。聚焦拥有优质客户、国际化产能布局的优质纺织龙头企业。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 2025年1-2月服装社零开门红，看好政策加持下消费稳复苏 2025年1-2月全国社零总额83731亿元，同比增长4.0%。其中服装零售总额2624亿元，同比增长 3.3%，在年初以来天气偏暖以及春节时点提前、服装消费高基数的背景下，取得了稳健增长。对比 2024年Q4来看，服装零售在2024年11/12月份同比增速分别为-4.5%/-0.3%，冬季旺季销售偏弱，但在政 策加持下内需提振效果在25年1-2月已经有所显现。该行认为2025全年服装内需消费将会呈现逐季度环 比改善趋势，一方面消费政策持续发力，另一方面24年消费低基数和暖冬影响将会在202 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the economic performance in early 2025, focusing on various sectors including retail, fixed asset investment, real estate, industrial production, and employment data [2][4][5][8][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Recovery Signs**: The economic data for January and February 2025 shows signs of recovery, with retail sales increasing by 4% year-on-year, up from 3.7% at the end of last year [2]. - **Consumer Goods Performance**: Essential consumer goods like food and clothing saw significant growth, with food sales up 11.5% and clothing up 3.3%. Optional consumer goods also improved, with cosmetics up 4.4% and sports goods up 25% [2][4]. - **Fixed Asset Investment Growth**: Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year, driven mainly by infrastructure investment, which rose by 9.95% [2][5]. - **Real Estate Sector**: Real estate investment showed a reduced negative growth of -9.8%, with sales area decline narrowing to -5.1% [2][7]. - **Industrial Production**: Industrial value added increased by 5.9%, indicating stable industrial production levels, confirming that the third quarter of last year was the GDP growth low point [2][8]. - **Employment Concerns**: The urban unemployment rate reached 5.4% in February, the highest since March 2023, indicating ongoing economic pressures [2][9]. - **Export Performance**: Exports grew by 2.3% year-on-year in January and February, a significant drop from 10.7% in December 2024, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival and tariff impacts on exports to the U.S. [2][14][15][16]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Policy Changes**: New consumer policies in 2025 emphasize mobilizing various sectors to stabilize the housing market and enhance income, with a focus on tourism and emerging industries [2][11]. - **Childcare Subsidies**: Some regions have introduced childcare subsidies to attract residents and support the real estate market, indicating a broader strategy to boost population growth [2][12]. - **Financial Data**: Social financing in February exceeded 2 trillion, reflecting strong government bond issuance and a historical high for the period [2][19][21]. - **Monetary Supply Trends**: M1 and M2 growth rates indicate a lack of significant change in corporate liquidity, suggesting stable internal financing demand [2][22]. - **Policy Expectations**: Upcoming government bond issuances and potential interest rate cuts are anticipated to support macroeconomic conditions [2][23].

Economic Growth - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5%, indicating a need for increased policy efforts to achieve this goal[7] - The implied nominal GDP growth rate has been adjusted down to 4.9%, with a fiscal deficit of 5.66 trillion and a deficit rate of 4%[8] - In 2024, final consumption and capital formation contributed only 3.5 percentage points to GDP growth, highlighting weak domestic demand[7] Price Stability - The CPI target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, reflecting a shift in focus from preventing inflation to promoting price recovery[9] - This adjustment indicates a stronger emphasis on price stability within the macroeconomic policy framework[18] Fiscal Policy - The total incremental fiscal funds for this year are projected to reach 2.9 trillion, second only to the 3.6 trillion in 2020[25] - The combined fiscal measures (deficit, special bonds, and long-term bonds) amount to 11.86 trillion, an increase of 2.9 trillion compared to last year[25] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is expected to be the main theme for 2025, with potential for timely adjustments in interest rates and reserve requirements[31] - Structural monetary policies will focus on supporting real estate, stock markets, and private enterprises[32] Consumption Promotion - Three key areas for consumption policy include subsidies for replacing old products, income support through social security, and improving the consumption environment[33] - The central government has allocated approximately 3,800 billion for consumption incentives, doubling last year's funding[26] Real Estate Policy - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through measures such as lifting purchase restrictions and adjusting mortgage rates[34] - Attention will be given to the progress of land and housing stock acquisition through special bonds[36] Industrial Policy - Discussions on potential new rounds of capacity reduction are ongoing, but any measures are expected to be moderate and market-driven[37] - The focus will be on addressing structural issues in industries facing overcapacity, particularly in emerging sectors[38] Technology and Private Enterprises - The government emphasizes the need for institutional support for private enterprises in national technology innovation projects[45] - There is a stronger commitment to resolving issues related to overdue payments to private enterprises, with funding sources identified for this purpose[45] Energy Consumption - The energy consumption target has been raised to a reduction of 3% per unit of GDP, indicating stricter energy policies moving forward[46] - The actual reduction achieved last year was 3.8%, exceeding the previous target of 2.5%[46] Capital Market - The report highlights the need for comprehensive reforms in the capital market to enhance the balance between investment and financing functions[51] - There is a focus on increasing the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market to stabilize investor confidence[51]