以旧换新政策在促进商品消费方面已经取得阶段性成果，考虑到耐用品置换周期，后续政策刺激效应或 将逐渐趋缓。要进一步促进国内消费，还需要进一步提振就业与居民收入，以及扭转偏低的通胀预期。 促进服务业就业与消费，特别是教育、健康、育儿等消费升级趋势下居民有意愿增加支出的领域，可能 是进一步促进消费的突破口。 证券时报记者：自去年9月24日以来，中国陆续出台一揽子化债政策与促增长举措，今年政治局会议前 后，又落地特别国债发行、央行降准降息等政策工具。从当前经济运行节奏看，未来还有哪些政策利好 值得关注？ 近日，国家统计局发布的5月经济数据超市场预期，以旧换新政策在促消费方面取得了阶段性成果。对 此，德意志银行等多家国际大行纷纷上调对中国经济增长的预测，并认为经济基本面的改善支持人民币 汇率走强。 为此，证券时报记者专访了德银中国首席经济学家熊奕。他就中国经济增长预期、人民币汇率、促消费 效果、政策发力方向等话题分享了观点。他认为，促进服务业就业和消费，特别是教育、健康、育儿等 消费升级趋势下居民有意愿增加支出的领域，可能是进一步促进消费的突破口。 证券时报记者：近日，国家统计局发布了5月经济数据，规模以上工业增加值同 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 06 月 18 日 5 月社零同比增幅扩大，集成电路产量同比增幅扩大 ——行业景气观察（0618） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在资源品、信息技术和部分中游制造领域。上游资源 品中，原油价格上涨，金属库存多数下行；中游制造领域，5 月工业机器人产量 三个月滚动同比增幅扩大，主要企业工程机械销售同比多数放缓。信息技术中， 存储器价格上涨，集成电路产量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，空冰 洗彩四周滚动零售额同比增幅扩大。5 月社零同比超预期，扩消费政策效应持续 显现。推荐景气较高或有改善的存储器、消费电子、有色、自动化设备、石化等。 ❑【本周关注】5 月社会消费品零售总额当月同比增幅扩大，且超市场预期，扩大 消费政策效应持续显现，两年复合增速来看，相比 1-4 月也有所扩大。结构上， 政策驱动作用明显：1）必选消费多数改善，或受益于假日催化，团圆宴请需求回 暖，粮油食品、烟酒零售同比增幅扩大，服装鞋帽等受益于大促消费也有所改善； 2）"以旧换新"加力扩围的效果显著，家电零售持续回暖，通讯器材零售同比增 幅扩大，两者仍是拉动 5 月限额以上社零同比增长的重要领域；3） ...

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/6/17 5月经济数据点评—— 消费增速超预期上行 | 单位： | 2025/5 | 2025/4 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2024/12 | 2024/11 | 2024/10 | 2024/9 | 2024/8 | 2024/7 | 2024/6 | 2024/5 | % | 规模以上工业增加值 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | ...

研究所 宏观研究 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email : yuanye@cnpsec. com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email : yuanxiheng@cnpsec. com 近期研究报告 《出口展现韧性,中美谈判进展或促 风险偏好修复》 - 2025.06.10 "以旧换新"蓄动力,"过境免签"新亮点 投资要点 5月经济整体运行平稳。按照生产法测算,5月经济增速或在5.5% 左右. 持平前值:从供需两端来看,供需均边际改善,供需缺口小幅 收窄;从增长动能来看,需求改善主要是消费提振,投资和出口边际 放缓,符合我们前期判断,外部不确定性冲击市场微观主体决策,对 生产和投资产生收缩压力,且房地产市场仍处于深度调整期,房价尚 未止跌企稳,房地产投资跌幅并未改善,持续拖累投资增速。而供给 端边际改善主要源自服务生产边际回暖。 向后看,二季度短期宏观环境的主要矛盾是美国关税政策,冲击 市场微观主体投资决策,对生产和投资影响或持续存在,二季度经济 增速或小幅边际放缓,预计在 5.2%-5.3%左右;进入三季度美关税政 策影响或逐步减弱 ...

行 业 及 产 业 商贸零售 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 看好 ——5 月社会零售品消费数据点评 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：①终端消费需求不及预期。②政策落地效果不及预期。③行业竞争加剧。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 《4 月社零同比+5.1%，政策支持下内需 展现强韧性——4 月社会零售品消费数据 点评》 2025/05/19 《3 月社零同比+5.9%，促消费政策加力 实施——3 月社会零售品消费数据点评》 2025/04/17 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 赵令伊 (8621)23297818× zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 16 日 5 月社零同比+6.4%，国补相关品 类及金银增速领先 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 2025 年 5 月社会零售总额同比增长 6.4%，超市场一致预期。5 月促消费政策持续显 效，首次增至五天的五一假期助力旅游市场扩容升级，618 大促前置推动线上消费保持 高速增长，国内 ...

国家统计局今日公布的5月经济数据显示，整体运行平稳、稳中有进，其中消费成为增长亮点。5月社会 消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，网上零售额增速达8.5%，持续高于线下消费。以旧换新政策成效显 著，家电、音像器材类零售额同比激增53%，通讯器材类增长33%，文化办公用品、家具类分别增长 30.5%和25.6%，有效拉动消费增长。 当前房地产市场交易低迷，房价增长乏力，居民购房投资减少间接释放部分消费资金。但需注意，前5 月居民储蓄仍保持较快增长，预防性储蓄特征明显；同时，居民按揭贷款增速下降，反映出需求不足压 力。未来需进一步扩大以旧换新商品目录，持续提振消费。过去两年消费已成为经济增长主引擎，预计 后续将出台更多促消费政策，尤其需关注居民收入提升——包括工资性收入（如最低工资调整）与财产 性收入（如资本市场表现）。 值得注意的是，新消费业态正成为破局关键。以河南企业为例，蜜雪冰城凭超低价策略成功上市，泡泡 玛特爆款产品全球热销（如Labubu拍卖价超百万），胖东来以高品质服务出圈，三者形成现象级消费 热潮。此类新消费精准把握年轻群体需求，推动国货品牌全球化，2024年泡泡玛特股价年内涨幅超11 倍，印证市场潜力 ...

Group 1 - The retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.932 million units in May 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and a month-on-month increase of 10.1% [1] - Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 8.811 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [1] - The retail market has shown a strong growth trend, with May 2025 sales surpassing the peak level of 1.81 million units in May 2018 by 6% [1] Group 2 - The automotive market has been buoyed by the "two new" policies, with local consumption promotion policies being implemented across various provinces [3] - As of May 31, the number of applications for the old-for-new vehicle subsidy reached 4.12 million, with May's applications estimated at 1.23 million, a 13% increase from April [3] - Approximately 70% of private car buyers benefited from the old-for-new policy, indicating a shift towards consumption upgrades [3] Group 3 - The automotive industry is undergoing significant changes in product structure, user demand, and channel development, necessitating proactive measures from dealers and industry players [3] - Dealers are encouraged to leverage favorable policies to explore new revenue streams and adapt their strategies accordingly [4] - The importance of digital transformation and the shift from sales to service in the automotive dealership model is emphasized, with a focus on utilizing digital marketing and data assets [4] Group 4 - The relationship between manufacturers and dealers is evolving, with a need for harmonious partnerships to adapt to the new market dynamics [5] - The automotive industry is facing challenges such as excessive dealership networks and profitability issues, leading to a necessary industry consolidation [5] - The establishment of exit mechanisms in dealership contracts is proposed to create a fairer and more orderly brand authorization cooperation model [6]

央视网消息：国家信息中心最新发布的多项先行指标显示，今年5月我国经济多领域"热力"升腾，折射出经济向好向"新"、活力强劲。首先来看投资，5 月份，政府投资持续加力，各类项目落地呈现提速态势。 国家信息中心工业园区生产热度指数显示，5月该指数同比增长21.2%，较上月提升0.3个百分点，生产活力维持在高位运行，意味着产业集聚效应在不 断增强，产业链、供应链的稳定性与协同性持续提升，显示出了产业发展的强劲动力。 其中，传统行业开工热度普涨。国家信息中心基于31种工业产品开工率构建的工业品开工热度指数同比上涨1.0个百分点，环比上涨1.4个点。纺织、化 工、钢铁、塑料等主要品类产品指数提升明显，显示出传统产业在市场需求的拉动以及政策的助力下，正加快复苏与转型升级的步伐。 此外，企业创新活力持续迸发。国家信息中心关于初创企业、技术创新型企业的经营活力指数，5月同比均实现20%以上的增长，增速较上月提升显 著。 最新数据显示，5月份，全国挖掘机指数为47.34%。从省份来看，有16个省份正在"提速快跑"，安徽、北京、浙江、吉林、辽宁的开工率位列全国前 五。 从区域来看，东北地区开工率达到了60.39%，位居各地区第一。 ...

Group 1: Investment Outlook - The mid-2025 outlook for the Chinese stock market is influenced by both domestic and international factors, with a focus on domestic consumption as a key area of interest [1] - The government is expected to continue and expand the successful "trade-in" consumption policy from the previous year, aimed at boosting consumer confidence and spending [2] - The global trade environment remains uncertain, with potential challenges to exports due to ongoing trade policy impacts and declining global demand [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - In light of the unclear macro environment, a bottom-up investment approach is recommended, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and resilient earnings that are less affected by external shocks [4] - This strategy allows investors to be more flexible in responding to market volatility and to identify long-term winners across various sectors [4] Group 3: Capital Inflows and Valuation - Strong inflows of southbound capital through the connectivity mechanism reflect a favorable liquidity environment and interest in Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, with net purchases reaching $78 billion, accounting for 75% of the expected total for 2024 [5] - The current valuation of the Chinese stock market remains attractive, with the MSCI China Index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 11 times, representing a significant discount of about 47% compared to the U.S. market [5]

Core Insights - The e-commerce logistics index in China rose to 111.6 points in May, indicating a steady increase in both supply and demand [1][2] - The total business volume index for e-commerce logistics reached 130.2 points, marking a 0.8 point increase from the previous month [1] - The rural e-commerce logistics business volume index also increased to 129.6 points, reflecting a 0.6 point rise [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand sides showed steady growth, with the total business volume index and rural business volume index hitting new highs for the year [2] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy boosted demand for home appliances and communication equipment [2] - Companies are enhancing their supply capabilities in anticipation of mid-year promotional activities, as indicated by a 0.2 point increase in the personnel index [1] Logistics Efficiency - The logistics timeliness index rose to 101.2 points, surpassing 100 for the first time this year, indicating improved service efficiency among e-commerce logistics companies [1] - The inventory turnover rate index increased by 0.2 points, suggesting faster inventory turnover as demand rises [1] - The market feedback remains positive, with a 0.4 point increase in the satisfaction index [1] Future Outlook - The easing of monetary policy is expected to provide significant support for the implementation of consumption-promoting policies, enhancing the vitality of the e-commerce market [2] - With major e-commerce platforms preparing for mid-year shopping promotions, the logistics index in June is anticipated to rise further [2]