Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current period is the off - season for consumption, with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers are more willing to sell, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. The market expects prices to rise from late July to early August, which may cause more concentrated sales and keep the spot market weak. The macro sentiment is strong recently, but the premium on the futures market has increased, and hedging profits have risen significantly. Piglet purchases will enter the off - season in August, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,230 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan's is 13,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,440 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [4] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2509 contract is 14,365 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton year - on - year; the生猪2511 contract is 14,210 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; and the生猪2601 contract is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 79,187 lots, down 42,372 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 62,464 lots, down 4,839 lots; the生猪2511 contract has a trading volume of 21,662 lots, down 22,162 lots, and an open interest of 46,374 lots, down 732 lots; the生猪2601 contract has a trading volume of 27,110 lots, down 22,001 lots, and an open interest of 39,822 lots, up 1,068 lots [4] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the生猪2509 contract is - 135 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton year - on - year; the生猪2511 contract's basis is 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the生猪2601 contract's basis is - 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 155 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton; and the 11 - 1 spread is - 340 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [- 2,2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current period is the off - season for consumption, with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has risen, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices, which confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. The report is waiting for the spot price verification at the end of the month. Recently, the macro - sentiment is strong, and the implementation of policies should be monitored. In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,800 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,890 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2509 contract is 14,365 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 230 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,870 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 235 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 contract is 14,110 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 290 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2509 contract is 60,032 lots, an increase of 31,070 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 64,259 lots, an increase of 600 lots; the Pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 25,211 lots, an increase of 16,970 lots, and an open interest of 44,029 lots, an increase of 126 lots; the Pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 24,904 lots, an increase of 19,029 lots, and an open interest of 29,487 lots, an increase of 5,388 lots [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The Pig 2509 basis is 115 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 180 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 basis is 610 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 185 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 basis is 370 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 240 yuan/ton; the Pig 9 - 11 spread is 495 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the Pig 11 - 1 spread is - 240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 55 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2]. The classification of strength includes weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Pigs: Waiting for End-of-Month Confirmation" and was released on July 21, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analysts - The analysts are Zhou Xiaoqiu (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0001891, Email: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com) and Wu Hao (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0018592, Email: wuhao8@gtht.com) [2] Group 3: Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 14,430 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 13,650 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 15,490 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 300 yuan/ton [3] - **Futures Prices**: LH2509 is 14,135 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 75 yuan/ton; LH2511 is 13,635 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 100 yuan/ton; LH2601 is 13,820 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 70 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volumes and Open Interests**: LH2509 trading volume is 28,962 lots, an increase of 904 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 63,659 lots, a decrease of 1,152 lots; LH2511 trading volume is 8,241 lots, an increase of 2,423 lots, and open interest is 43,903 lots, a decrease of 271 lots; LH2601 trading volume is 5,875 lots, an increase of 2,340 lots, and open interest is 24,099 lots, an increase of 859 lots [3] - **Price Spreads**: LH2509 basis is 295 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 125 yuan/ton; LH2511 basis is 795 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 150 yuan/ton; LH2601 basis is 610 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 120 yuan/ton; LH9 - 11 spread is 500 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; LH11 - 1 spread is -185 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 30 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 5: Market Logic - Currently in the off - season of consumption, downstream digestion capacity is limited. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has increased, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. This confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects price increases from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. Wait for end - of - month spot price confirmation and pay attention to reserve policy trends recently [5] - In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity atmosphere is warm, which provides support for metal prices, but there are still risks of market fluctuations due to factors such as the US copper tariff and overseas trade uncertainties [2][4]. - Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper and aluminum are affected by inventory changes and industrial conditions; lead and zinc are influenced by supply and demand balances and macro - monetary policies; tin and nickel are affected by production and downstream demand; and the prices of lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are also subject to various factors such as production, inventory, and market sentiment [2][4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.43% to $9678/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78260 yuan/ton. The price oscillated and rebounded [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 1150 to 122150 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons (SMM caliber). SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.8 to 4.2 million tons [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere is warm, but the US copper tariff expectation brings risks. The copper raw material shortage persists, but the marginal impact weakens. The price rebound is expected to be weak. The operation range of SHFE copper is 77500 - 78800 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9550 - 9760 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum rose 0.52% to $2589/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20520 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is warm, but overseas trade is uncertain. Aluminum ingot inventory is low, but the supply is expected to increase. The short - term price increase drive is weak, and it mainly rebounds with the commodity atmosphere. The operation range of SHFE aluminum is 20300 - 20650 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2550 - 2620 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index fell 0.28% to 16864 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 12 to 1974 dollars/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 million tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the supply and demand are slightly in surplus. The domestic lead price is expected to run weakly [5]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22109 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 2 to 2697 dollars/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 9.35 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the zinc price is bearish. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate due to the strong overall commodity atmosphere [7]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The tin price oscillated [9]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a low level, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply and demand are balanced [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: Due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, the short - term tin price is expected to oscillate weakly. The operation range of domestic tin price is 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin price is 31000 - 35000 dollars/ton [10]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: The nickel price oscillated [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The contradiction in the nickel market lies in the ferro - nickel production line. The ferro - nickel price is expected to follow the decline of the ore price. The nickel price has a certain short - selling cost - performance, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operation range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16000 dollars/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index rose 0.78%, and the LC2509 contract rose 2.32% [13]. - **Supply - Inventory**: The production increased by 1.6% to 19115 tons, and the inventory increased by 1.3% to 142620 tons [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - side disturbances are frequent. The operation range of the LC2509 contract is 66200 - 69500 yuan/ton [13]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 0.48% to 3079 yuan/ton [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The mineral price is expected to strengthen in the medium - term, but the alumina over - capacity pattern remains. It is recommended to short at high prices. The operation range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.47% to 12730 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 1.69% to 114.78 million tons [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Although it is the traditional off - season, the market activity has increased after the price bottomed out. The price is expected to rise slightly [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.18% to 19845 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 0.03 million tons to 2.83 million tons [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The price has a large upward resistance [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing weak demand and supply, leading to a fluctuating price trend. The current price of tin is reported at 261,920 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.59% [1] - Recent discussions at the Wa State conference have led to expectations of a slight recovery in tin ore supply, although the overall demand remains weak due to the off-season [1] - The resumption of mining operations in Myanmar's Wa State is limited by rising licensing fees, but some operators have obtained three-year mining licenses, which may lead to a gradual increase in shipments in the coming months [1][2] Group 2 - The smelting plants are currently holding a bullish price sentiment, while traders are cautiously entering the market, primarily focusing on essential purchases [2] - The traditional off-season for downstream demand is impacting order levels, with a decline in actual monthly demand due to reduced production in home appliances and the conclusion of solar energy installations [2] - The market is experiencing a "high inventory, low turnover" situation, with some companies forced to cut production due to insufficient scrap supply and declining processing fees, which are increasing production costs [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy and Economy**: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - **Supply - Demand**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - **Supply - Demand**: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] Market Quotes Futures Market | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7288 | 7239 | 7301 | 7231 | -45 | -0.62% | 122440 | 5899 | | Plastic 2605 | 7258 | 7214 | 7272 | 7206 | -35 | -0.48% | 2935 | 568 | | Plastic 2509 | 7285 | 7221 | 7292 | 7208 | -63 | -0.86% | 433865 | 12529 | | PP2601 | 7072 | 7024 | 7080 | 7015 | -34 | -0.48% | 110563 | 4374 | | PP2605 | 7066 | 7018 | 7074 | 7010 | -33 | -0.47% | 5931 | 1115 | | PP2509 | 7080 | 7015 | 7080 | 7008 | -50 | -0.71% | 397459 | 5611 | [5] Spot Market - On July 16, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 785,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons (-0.63%) from the previous working day, compared with 765,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - PE market prices declined weakly. Linear PE prices were as follows: North China: 7,100 - 7,400 yuan/ton; East China: 7,200 - 7,600 yuan/ton; South China: 7,280 - 7,550 yuan/ton [7] - Shandong propylene market prices declined slightly, closing at 6,270 - 6,300 yuan/ton at 12:00, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [7] - PP futures fluctuated at a low level, suppressing the market trading atmosphere. The mainstream prices of North China PP drawstrings were 6,980 - 7,080 yuan/ton; East China: 6,980 - 7,130 yuan/ton; South China: 6,970 - 7,200 yuan/ton [7] Market Review and Outlook - LLDPE L2509 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7,214 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton (-0.40%), with a trading volume of 200,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 2,987 to 436,852 lots [6] - PP futures closed at 7,013 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan (-0.33%), with an increase in open interest of 13,700 lots to 411,200 lots [6] - Futures opened lower and fluctuated, dampening the market trading atmosphere. Some ex-factory prices were lowered, and spot prices partially declined. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low [6] - Entering the consumption off-season, the downstream operating rate of polyethylene was at the lowest level of the year, and there was no sign of improvement in pipe demand. The demand side was difficult to support, while the supply side pressure increased. Previously shut-down plants were planned to restart, and the loss of maintenance was expected to weaken. The supply side would still face pressure in the future. Downstream companies mostly maintained a low inventory strategy, and the supply-demand balance was expected to deteriorate, leading to a weak downward trend in the single-sided market [6] Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current market is in a consumption off - season with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although group farms have not increased supply, some individual farmers' willingness to sell has risen, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. This indicates that the previous price increase was mainly driven by inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of a price increase from late July to early August may cause more concentrated sales, leading to an early shift in market sentiment. Attention should be paid to policy trends after the spot price falls below 14 yuan/kg. The impact path of this inventory cycle is more complex and needs to be judged based on factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and individual farmers' hoarding behavior. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,630 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 13,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 16,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 14,010 yuan/ton, 13,490 yuan/ton, and 13,700 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 240 yuan/ton, 130 yuan/ton, and 65 yuan/ton [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 50,384 lots, 10,814 lots, and 4,715 lots respectively, with increases of 26,540 lots, 5,178 lots, and 44 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 69,001 lots, 44,390 lots, and 22,988 lots respectively, with increases of 1,125 lots, 822 lots, and 265 lots compared to the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 620 yuan/ton, 1,140 yuan/ton, and 930 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 140 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and - 35 yuan/ton. The Pig 9 - 11 spread is 520 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the Pig 11 - 1 spread is - 210 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - In the short - term, due to the consumption off - season and increased selling by individual farmers, the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market's expectation of a future price increase may lead to more concentrated sales and an early shift in market sentiment. Attention should be paid to policy trends after the spot price falls below 14 yuan/kg. The impact path of the inventory cycle is complex and needs further spot price verification. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as inventory changes, trade policies, supply and demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. Different metals show different trends, with some expected to be weak, some to be volatile, and others to be affected by short - term factors [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper closed down 0.21% to $9,637/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77,950 yuan/ton. Trump's 50% copper tariff announcement will put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 10,525 tons to 121,000 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 50,000 tons [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend due to the tariff impact and the off - season [2]. - **Price Range**: The Shanghai copper main contract is expected to operate in the range of 77,200 - 78,600 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,500 - 9,720/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum closed down 0.29% to $2,575/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,425 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.65 tons to 33.6 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 42.4 tons [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term aluminum price may be volatile due to the low inventory and the off - season [4]. - **Price Range**: The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,550 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,540 - 2,600/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.20% to 16,911 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $2.5 to $1,986/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 58,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 271,100 tons [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price is expected to be weak due to the relatively loose supply [6]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.21% to 22,023 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $12.5 to $2,699/ton [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased to 93,100 tons [8]. - **Market Outlook**: In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish, while in the short - term, it is expected to be volatile [8]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The tin price was in a weak and volatile trend [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply shortage persists, and the demand is weak. The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces is 54.07% [9]. - **Inventory**: The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9,644 tons [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar [9]. - **Price Range**: The domestic tin price is expected to operate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price in the range of $31,000 - 35,000/ton [9]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: The nickel price fell and adjusted [10]. - **Supply Impact**: The fire at Zhejiang Zhongneng has limited impact on pure nickel supply [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The nickel iron price is expected to continue to fall, and it is recommended to short the nickel price at high levels [10]. - **Price Range**: The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,000/ton [10]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index was flat, and the LC2509 contract closed down 0.36% [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be affected by news and market sentiment [12]. - **Price Range**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium 2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 64,800 - 67,600 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 1.56% to 3,094 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,500 tons [15]. - **Market Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to short at high levels [15]. - **Price Range**: The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to operate in the range of 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,670 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [17]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 116,750 tons [17]. - **Market Outlook**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile due to the off - season demand [17]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.15% to 19,820 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 40 tons to 28,000 tons [19]. - **Market Outlook**: The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to face resistance due to the off - season and the aluminum price pressure [19].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei [4] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai zinc futures market showed a downward trend with the main contract closing at 22,085 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased by 9,873 lots to 84,304 lots. The LME zinc inventory increased for two consecutive days, and the domestic social inventory increased as expected. The zinc ingot supply remained strong, while the consumption was squeezed by the off - season and weak exports. The market was expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: Different contracts of Shanghai zinc (2507, 2508, 2509) all declined. The main contract 2508 opened at 22,110 yuan/ton, closed at 22,085 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%. The open interest decreased by 9,873 lots to 84,304 lots, and the monthly spread C strengthened to 75 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory Situation**: The LME zinc inventory in Singapore increased by 5,200 tons to 118,600 tons. The domestic social inventory on Monday increased by 0.28 million tons to 9.31 million tons [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The zinc concentrate processing fee continued to rise. The import zinc concentrate index was 66.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate weekly processing fee rose to 3,800 yuan/ton. The overall zinc ingot supply was strong. The domestic consumption was affected by the off - season and weak exports, and the off - season inventory accumulation trend was gradually realized [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The market tested the support at the 22,000 yuan integer mark, and it was expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Premium in Different Regions**: On July 15, 2025, in different regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong, the prices of 0 and 1 zinc and their premiums to different contracts were reported. For example, in Shanghai, 0 zinc mainstream成交价 was between 22,325 - 22,530 yuan/ton, and the premium to the 2508 contract was different for different brands [8][17]. 3. Data Overview - **Relevant Charts**: The report included charts such as the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of the two - market zinc, and SHFE monthly spread [13][16]