Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is under pressure due to a strong dollar and uncertainty regarding the timing of the next Federal Reserve interest rate cut, although safe-haven demand is limiting its decline [1] Group 2 - The World Platinum Investment Council predicts a significant shortage in the platinum market for the third consecutive year, with a shortfall of 22 tons, revised down by 5 tons from previous forecasts [3] - Total platinum supply is expected to decrease by 2% year-on-year to 222 tons in 2025, marking a five-year low, while total demand is projected to decline by 13 tons [3] - Platinum's supply is highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia, with South Africa holding nearly 90% of global platinum group metal reserves [3] - Platinum is essential in various industries, including jewelry, automotive, glass, aerospace, and chemicals, and its demand may significantly increase with advancements in hydrogen energy technology [3] - Platinum prices are expected to break through the 400 yuan per gram mark in 2025, with an annual increase exceeding 80% driven by rising prices of gold, silver, and other minor metals [3]

Report Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for different asset classes are as follows: - Index: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term shock, cautious long [2] - Commodity sectors: - Black metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Non - ferrous metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Core Views - The global market is affected by the Fed's monetary policy expectations, domestic economic growth, and policy stimulus. The short - term upward drive of the macro - economy has weakened, and different asset classes show short - term shock characteristics. Attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2][3] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Overseas, the Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, and many thought it was not suitable to cut interest rates in December. The market expected no rate cut this year, leading to a rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's October economic data slowed down year - on - year and fell short of expectations, and the central bank restarted Treasury bond trading to release liquidity. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and the index will be in short - term shock [2] - Index: Driven by sectors such as precious metals, it rose slightly. Affected by economic data and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term upward drive has weakened, and it will be in short - term shock. Short - term cautious wait - and - see [3] - Precious metals: The market rose slightly at night on Wednesday. Affected by the Fed's possible inaction in December and the strong US dollar, short - term shock, long - term upward pattern remains. Short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures markets declined on Wednesday. Demand continued to weaken, inventory decreased, and production decreased. There are no new contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range [4][6] - Iron ore: The spot price fell slightly on Wednesday, and the futures price remained strong. The bottom of iron - making water production is uncertain, supply has changed slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [6] - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: The spot price was flat on Wednesday, and the futures price was affected by coal. Demand is still poor, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a range [7] - Soda ash: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply decreased marginally but remained loose, and demand improved marginally. Short - term range shock, long - term bearish [8] - Glass: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply was stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was at a high level. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rebounded slightly. Supply concerns still exist, but US and domestic inventories are high, and there is a risk of price decline [10] - Aluminum: On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded. Technically, there may be room for further rebound, but inventory is at a three - year high, and there may be a large correction later [10] - Tin: Supply is tight, demand is weak, inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11] - Lithium carbonate: The main contract rose on Wednesday. The price of lithium ore increased, and the trading volume increased. Hold long positions cautiously [12] - Industrial silicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. The organic silicon industry plans to reduce emissions and support prices. Pay attention to the continuation of funds and buy on dips [12] - Polysilicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: EIA data showed an increase in US refined oil inventories, and the hope of restarting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine led to a decline in oil prices. It is expected to remain under pressure [15] - Asphalt: The price remained low. Inventory was decreasing slightly, but demand was weak, and the over - supply pressure was high. Pay attention to the fluctuation of crude oil [15] - PX: The import from Japan is uncertain, and PTA demand provides some support. It is in a tight supply situation, and pay attention to cost changes [16] - PTA: The import of PX is uncertain, and downstream demand is weak. The supply is high, and the long - term bearish pressure is large [16] - Ethylene glycol: Port inventory has accumulated significantly, downstream demand is weakening, and the price is expected to remain low and fluctuate [16] - Short fiber: It rebounded slightly in the short term, but the later pressure is large. The terminal orders are decreasing seasonally, and it can be shorted on highs in the medium term [17] Agricultural Products - US soybeans: The overnight market declined. Brazil's November export volume is expected to increase, and there is an export order to China [19] - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The supply and demand of domestic oil mills are loose, the basis is weak, and there may be a phased correction [19] - Soybean and rapeseed oil: The price was boosted by EPA biodiesel news. The supply of domestic soybean oil is strong, and rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [20] - Palm oil: The Malaysian futures market continued to rise, but domestic inventory increased, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [20] - Corn: The price in Northeast China remained stable. Inventory is low, and there is a willingness to buy in the market. The futures may repair the basis [20] - Live pigs: The morning price was stable and strong. Supply is excessive, and the futures may continue to decline [21]

投资者对科技股高估值泡沫与美联储政策路径不确定性的担忧加剧，市场避险情绪升温，导致全球股市普遍承压。 11月19日，美股期指涨跌互现，欧股指跌多涨少，亚洲股市连续第四日下跌，美元及美债基本持平，日本国债价格回落。商品方面，金银齐涨， 原油下跌。加密货币市场上，比特币在失守9万美元关口后收复部分失地。 市场焦点正集中于即将发布的英伟达财报，市场情绪谨慎。美东时间11月19日盘后（北京时间11月20日早间），英伟达将公布第三季度财报，该 财报不仅反映其作为AI龙头企业的自身表现，更被视为AI板块乃至全球市场情绪的重要风向标。 巴克莱银行前首席执行官、现任投资公司Atlas Merchant Capital的负责人Bob Diamond表示，近日全球市场的动荡类似于一次"健康的调整"，投资 者正在评估技术变革的各个方面。他称： 投资者关注的另一个重点是美联储下个月是否会降息。目前互换交易显示，12月份降息的可能性不到50%。目前利率路径仍存分歧，一些政策制 定者警告，降低利率存在通胀风险。 日本10年期国债收益率攀升2个基点至1.765%，创下自2008年6月全球金融危机以来的最高水平。 美股期指集体转涨，标普50 ...

汇通财经APP讯——周二（11月18日）出炉的美国最新就业数据全面崩盘，直接把美联储12月降息预期 从谷底拉回50%附近，现货黄金从盘盘中触及的一周低点3998美元暴力反弹，盘中最高摸到4080美元， 最终收涨0.54%报4067.44美元，一夜终结三连阴，上演"王者归来"戏码！周三（11月19日）亚市早盘， 现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4070美元/盎司附近，本交易日市场目光将转向美联储会议纪要，此 外，还需要继续关注美联储官员的讲话。 美国就业市场彻底亮红灯，裁员潮已经来了 最新数据触目惊心：10月中旬当周初请失业金人数飙升至两个月最高点，续请失业金人数更是直接突破 190万人大关。与此同时，克利夫兰联储披露上个月有整整3.9万美国人提前收到裁员通知，ADP私营就 业报告也显示，过去四周平均每周净裁员高达2500人。这些数字叠加在一起，只传递出一个信号——美 国劳动力市场正在急速恶化！ 独立金属交易商Tai Wong指出：这波疲软数据明显提升了市场对12月降息的希望，对正在苦苦挣扎的金 银来说，简直是天降及时雨！ 降息概率上演惊天大反转，从67%跌到45%又杀回50% 芝商所FedWatch工具实时显示， ...

"小非农"ADP周度就业数据显示，截至11月1日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少2500人。 另外，美国劳工部数据显示，截至10月18日当周，美国初请失业金人数23.2万人，续请失业金人数小幅 上升至195.7万人，同时，截至9月20日当周初请失业金人数从21.8万人上修至21.9万人，四周均值从 23.75万人上修至23.775万人，疲软数据明显提升了市场对12月降息的预期。 11月18日，金价早盘延续回落，盘中受避险情绪升温及美联储降息预期回升催化，止跌反弹，截至收 盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.17%报4067.40美元/盎司。 中信期货分析指出，日内披露的美国周度首申、续请失业金人数维持高位，美国政府本次的超长停摆进 一步推升劳动力市场下行风险，美股延续弱势，美债小幅走强，关注本周美国GDP及非农数据披露，金 银短期或呈现震荡整理。长期中贵金属多头趋势维持。债务超发、逆全球化作为美元信用下行的核心驱 动并未反转，黄金作为超越主权的货币，仍是对冲美元信用风险的首选资产。 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-11-19 避险情绪急剧发酵，风险资产集体承压 市场分析 国内经济基础仍待夯实。10月28日，"十五五"规划建议全文发布，公报提到，到2035年实现我国经济实力、科技 实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。按人均GDP目标 推算，"十五五"期间的平均GDP增速或有望维持在5%左右，较强的提振了当下市场情绪和经济预期。10月30日， 中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，11月5日，中国正式落实暂缓关税。数据方面，10月全国制造业PMI录得49， 环比值下跌0.8；中国10月出口（以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节 前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口"和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，关 注后续经济情况。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一 步促进消费政策措施，国内经济基础仍待夯实。11月18日，A股低开低走，创业板指跌超1%。AI应用方向逆势大 涨；商品多数下跌，焦煤跌3.86%，集运指数(欧线)跌2.88%，沪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence in commodity markets is driven by geopolitical factors, monetary policy expectations, and market sentiment, which presents both opportunities and risks for medium to long-term investors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Oil Market - The rise in crude oil prices is primarily due to tightening sanctions against Russia by the EU and the impending U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, leading to a decrease in supply [3]. - WTI crude oil has maintained a price above $60, with traders suggesting that it is unlikely to fall below this level unless there is a significant market downturn [3]. - The potential for further price increases exists if new sanctions are announced, indicating a bullish outlook for the medium to long term [3][5]. Group 2: Industrial Metals - The decline in copper and other industrial metals is linked to changing expectations regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with investors cautious ahead of upcoming employment data [4][5]. - Industrial metals are closely tied to economic demand, and concerns about delayed rate cuts have led to increased selling pressure, despite previous supply concerns [4]. - For medium to long-term investors, focusing on metals with strong demand and supply constraints is recommended, particularly after price corrections [5]. Group 3: Gold Market - The increase in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion among investors, particularly in light of stock market volatility [4]. - Gold prices are also influenced by interest rate expectations, and while there may be short-term gains, long-term trends will depend on broader market conditions [4][5]. - It is advised to maintain a portion of gold as a hedge against risk rather than pursuing aggressive trading strategies [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors should focus on supply-demand dynamics for oil and industrial metals, particularly in light of geopolitical developments and economic recovery trends [5][6]. - Monitoring U.S. employment reports is crucial for understanding future monetary policy directions, which will impact commodity markets significantly [5][6]. - Practical investment strategies include waiting for price corrections in oil, avoiding panic selling in industrial metals, and maintaining a balanced approach to gold investments [5][6].

本报记者 刘琪 近期，国际金价呈现先扬后抑的走势。Wind资讯数据显示，伦敦金现货价格在11月10日至11月12日连续上涨，11月13日盘 中冲高至4245.22美元/盎司后开始回落。11月18日，截至记者发稿时（下同），伦敦金现货价格盘中失守4000美元/盎司关口， 最低跌至3997.658美元/盎司。 受国际金价影响，国内金饰价格也大幅回调。"看到金饰价格跌至1300元/克以下，我就过来看看，怕再等下去价格又涨起 来。"11月18日在北京市丰台区一家周大福门店挑选首饰的梁女士对《证券日报》记者说，她最近在某社交平台上被"种草"了 该品牌的四芒星系列饰品，想趁金价回调时机入手。据悉，上周该品牌金饰克价最高升至1333元，而11月18日已经下调至1288 元。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对《证券日报》记者表示，两大因素共同导致了近期国际金价表现不佳：一方面，前期避险情 绪对金价的支撑有所减弱；另一方面，美国重要经济数据尚未恢复公布，投资者对劳动力市场和美国通胀走势预期并不一致， 对12月份美联储降息预期也有所摇摆。 市场避险情绪明显减弱 瞿瑞预计，短期来看，国际金价和银价都将会维持震荡格局，主要源于美联储12月 ...

每经编辑｜陈柯名 杜宇 10X Research的分析师说，加密市场已进入"确认的熊市阶段"。ETF流入走弱、长期持有者持续抛售、散户进入意愿低迷，都表明市场情绪正在暗中恶 化。 11月18日，比特币盘中一度跌破9万美元，持续一个月的下跌态势已抹去该加密货币2025年的所有涨幅。 | # = | 名称; | 价格: 涨跌(24H) : | 涨跌(7日) ÷ | 0 市值: | 0 成交量(24H) : | 0 交易份额: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 1 | 比特币 | $90,722.9 -4.99% | -15.42% | $1.80T | $101.35B | 45.34% | | BTC | | | | | | | | 2 . | 以太坊 | $3,014.33 -5.07% | -17.94% | $359.21B | $43.61B | 20.60% | | ETH | | | | | | | | 3 40 交通市 | USDT | $1.0024 +0.09% | -0.05% | $183.89B | $163.84B | ...

11月18日，比特币盘中一度跌破9万美元，持续一个月的下跌态势已抹去该加密货币2025年的所有涨幅。 截至发稿，比特币报90722.9美元，跌幅4.99%。以太坊、艾达币跌超5%，狗狗币跌4.56%。 | # = | | 名称; | 价格; | 涨跌(24H) ÷ | 涨跌(7日) ÷ | 0 市值; | 0 成交! | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | B | 比特币 BTC | $90,722.9 | -4.99% | -15.42% | $1.80T | 4. | | 2 | | 以太坊 ETH | $3,014.33 | -5.07% | -17.94% | $359.21B | 10 | | 3 | 43 | 泰达币 USDT | $1.0024 | +0.09% | -0.05% | $183.89B | $1 | | 4 | × | XRP XRP | $2.1487 | -4.80% | -16.61% | $127.65B | | | 5 | | BNB BMB | $903.57 | -3.35% | -10.7 ...