Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent fluctuations in glass futures prices, highlighting the impact of supply and demand dynamics post-National Day holiday [3][4]. - The glass market is currently experiencing a battle between weak realities and strong expectations, with a shift towards trading based on low valuations [5][6]. - The bottom of the glass market is believed to have been established in June, with current conditions indicating that it is difficult for prices to break previous lows [6]. Group 2 - Uncertainties in the glass market are primarily related to supply-side factors, including the potential impact of anti-involution policies and the transition of production lines to cleaner energy sources [7]. - Strategies for trading glass futures include looking for opportunities to buy at low prices, while also considering the potential for price increases if supply contracts or demand strengthens [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No clear industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - With the gradual alleviation of unfavorable factors in trade frictions, stock index may return to the upward channel. Under the circumstances of policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, the adjustment space of stock index is expected to be limited, and the strategy is to go long on stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. - The initial consensus between China and the US has improved market risk appetite, suppressing precious metal prices. However, factors such as the upcoming Fed rate cut and the ongoing US government shutdown still support the gold price, so the short - term gold price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The London lease rate has dropped significantly, and silver is in a volatile adjustment [1]. - The short - term prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate due to factors such as improved macro - sentiment, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and limited industrial - side drivers [1]. - The short - term prices of some agricultural products, energy, and chemical products are also affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations, showing different trends of fluctuation, rise, or fall [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Finance - Stock Index: With the alleviation of trade frictions, it may return to the upward channel. Adjustment space is limited under policy and liquidity support. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central bank's interest - rate risk reminder suppresses upward space [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: Market risk appetite improvement suppresses price, but Fed rate cut and government shutdown support it. Short - term price may fluctuate [1]. - Silver: London lease rate drop leads to volatile adjustment [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Global trade friction alleviation and approaching Fed meeting improve risk appetite, high price suppresses demand, short - term price may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: Macro - sentiment is good, but industrial - side drivers are limited, price may fluctuate [1]. - Alumina: Domestic production capacity is released, output and inventory increase, weak fundamentals pressure spot price, focus on cost support [1]. - Zinc: LME zinc 0 - 3 spread hits a record high, export expectation strengthens, short - term Shanghai zinc may maintain high level [1]. - Nickel: US inflation data and trade situation affect it. Under the RKAB policy, short - term price may be macro - dominated and fluctuate strongly, but high inventory still suppresses it [1]. - Stainless Steel: Macro - sentiment improves, steel mills' price - holding operations increase. Short - term futures may rebound in a volatile way, and short - term operation is recommended [1]. - Tin: Macro - sentiment improves and semiconductor sector rebounds. Short - term price may be affected by macro - sentiment and fluctuate strongly [1]. Industrial Metals - TV Silicon: Northwest capacity resumes production, southwest start - up is weaker than before, and the impact of dry season weakens [1]. - Polysilicon: October production is expected to increase unexpectedly, and there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: New energy vehicle peak season is coming, energy storage demand is strong, and overall demand is large although supply production increases [1]. - Steel Products: The industrial drive of rebar and hot - rolled coil is not clear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but commodity sentiment is good, and far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strong, direct demand is good, and macro - factors are beneficial [1]. - Glass: Supply surplus pressure is large, and price is under pressure [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, with large supply surplus pressure and pressured price [1]. - Coking Coal: It challenges the previous high, but there is uncertainty in breaking through, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Coke: The futures price is at a premium. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging for part of the spot [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is an expectation of B50 implementation in Indonesia next year, but high inventory in Malaysia in September and expected inventory accumulation in October put pressure on the price. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Soybean Oil: The upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting may bring new guidance. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, but there is a lack of new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian relations puts pressure on the price. Domestic rapeseed is in short supply, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: The contradiction between Xinjiang's capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit makes the new - year cotton demand uncertain. The downside space of the futures price is limited, but the new - crop basis and futures price may be under pressure [1]. - Sugar: Typhoons affect sugarcane harvest, and there is seasonal upward momentum in the short - term. However, good growth conditions in the south may limit the rebound space after new sugar is listed [1]. - Corn: North - south port inventories are low, short - term production area supply decreases, and the north - port price is firm. There is expected selling pressure in the future, but the downside space is limited [1]. - Soybean Meal: Under the expectation of Sino - US talks, the US market rises strongly. The domestic market has low valuation and is expected to rebound. Pay attention to policies and weather [1]. - Pulp: The trading logic is related to old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals decline, but the spot price is firm. It is not recommended to short after the futures price drops. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pigs: The spot price stabilizes, but the futures price is at a premium. Wait for changes in slaughter volume and weight. Short - term price may fluctuate [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ may maintain a small increase in production in November, geopolitical speculation cools down, and the US softens its attitude towards China's tariffs. Price may fluctuate [1]. - Fuel Oil: Similar to crude oil, price may fluctuate [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The probability of "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is falsified, and supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Shanghai Rubber: Raw material cost support is strong, mid - stream inventory decreases, and the commodity market atmosphere is positive. It is recommended to go long [1]. - BR Rubber: Crude oil weakens, cost support of butadiene drops, supply is loose, and the main price is continuously adjusted down [1]. - PTA: The news of "anti - involution" policy and device problems drive the price up [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Crude oil price drops, coal price rises, and the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol strengthens slightly [1]. - Short - Fiber: Follows the cost of PTA, and the basis strengthens with the rise of PTA price [1]. - Styrene: Asian benzene price is weak, device operation rate drops, and profit decreases [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment eases, domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - Other Chemicals: Some chemicals have different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand changes, and policy impacts [1]. Others - Container Shipping (European Line): The price has fallen to a low level, may rebound, and is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PTA price rebounded rapidly in the afternoon due to the news of the "anti - involution" policy. Although the PTA price only rebounded slightly before, with the cost support from rising crude oil prices and policy expectations, it rebounded after long - term low - level operation. The downstream polyester开工率 remains above 91%, and the overall polyester sales are relatively high. The demand in the overseas market for Chinese textile and clothing products is expected to pick up after the positive news from the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. The ethylene glycol price is under pressure due to domestic device commissioning, and it is expected that the polyester will operate weakly as the polyester peak season is ending and the crude oil fundamentals are downward [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 468.9 yuan/barrel on October 27, 2025, to 462.7 yuan/barrel on October 28, 2025, a decrease of 6.20 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1208.5 yuan/ton to 1251.5 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3546 to 1.3722. PTA主力期价 decreased from 4616 yuan/ton to 4614 yuan/ton, while the PTA现货价格 increased from 4505 yuan/ton to 4535 yuan/ton. The现货加工 fee rose from 111.7 yuan/ton to 180.7 yuan/ton, and the盘面加工 fee increased from 222.7 yuan/ton to 259.7 yuan/ton [2] - **PX**: CFR中国PX decreased from 821 to 814, and the PX - naphtha spread dropped from 240 to 236 [2] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4109 yuan/ton to 4069 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha was (125.88) yuan/ton on October 27 and (128.07) yuan/ton on October 28. The MEG内盘 decreased from 4183 to 4167 [2] 3.2 Industry Chain Operation - **开工率**: PX开工率 increased from 84.62% to 86.21%, PTA开工率 remained at 79.46%, MEG开工率 rose from 63.50% to 64.41%, and the polyester负荷 remained at 89.28% [2] 3.3 Product Sales and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price increased from 6400 to 6415, POY现金流 decreased from (103) to (108). FDY150D/96F price increased from 6655 to 6690, FDY现金流 increased from (348) to (333). DTY150D/48F price increased from 7730 to 7740, DTY现金流 decreased from 27 to 17. The long - filament sales decreased from 70% to 63% [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D直纺涤短 price increased from 6405 to 6445, 涤短现金流 increased from 252 to 272. The short - fiber sales decreased from 83% to 43% [2] - **Polyester Chip**: The semi - bright chip price increased from 5545 to 5560, 切片现金流 decreased from (58) to (63). The chip sales decreased from 222% to 57% [2] 3.4 Device Maintenance - An East China 2.2 - million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The news of the PTA industry advancing the "anti-involution" policy has driven the rapid rise of PTA prices. However, with the post - market decline of crude oil, PTA prices may fall back [2]. - Although the overall load of domestic PTA plants has been adjusted down due to low processing fees, the polyester industry's profit is still constrained by over - capacity pressure from new production capacity and overseas plant commissioning [2]. - After long - term low - level operation, PTA prices rebounded rapidly due to policy expectations. Currently, the operating rate of polyester downstream remains above 91%, with demand slightly exceeding expectations and recent polyester production and sales being relatively high [2]. - Against the backdrop of positive news from the China - US economic and trade negotiations over the weekend, overseas demand for Chinese textile and clothing products is expected to recover [2]. Group 3: Summary by Index Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4505 to 4535, up 30 [2]. - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4183 to 4167, down 16 [2]. - PTA closing price decreased from 4616 to 4614, down 2 [2]. - MEG closing price decreased from 4109 to 4069, down 40 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6405 to 6445, up 40 [2]. - Short - fiber basis increased from 78 to 103, up 25 [2]. - 11 - 12 spread decreased from 14 to 36, down 22 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, up 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - denier fiber price remained unchanged at 5400 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - denier fiber increased from 1005 to 1045, up 40 [2]. - East China water - bottle chip price increased from 5725 to 5732, up 7 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 5725 to 5732, up 7 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5825 to 5832, up 7 [2]. - Outer - market water - bottle chip price increased from 755 to 760, up 5 [2]. - Bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 472 to 459, down 13.29 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10300 to 10320, up 20 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3865 to 3875, down 20 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16350 [2]. - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14565 to 14525, down 40 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1598 to 1587, down 11.40 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) fiber price increased from 6955 to 7000, up 40 [2]. - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 502 to 522, up 19.71 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7410 [2]. Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 50 to 6250. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants were raised, and trader prices were warming up. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and on - site transactions were limited [2]. - Polyester bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5730 - 5830 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA continued to rise, enhancing cost support. With the increasing willingness of suppliers to offer prices, the market negotiation increased slightly [2]. Operating Rates and Sales - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40%, up 0.01 [3]. - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 80.00% to 40.00%, down 40.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3]. - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 51.00%, down 0.01 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are average, with the spot price remaining stable. The inventory increased significantly in October due to increased production in the Northwest and non - dry season in the Southwest. The market is expected to improve after the Southwest starts to cut production at the end of October. If there are relevant policies, the industrial silicon futures may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure. Although production may decrease in November, downstream production may also weaken. Mid - to long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8960 yuan/ton and closed at 8955 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2511 had a position of 211,670 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts was 48,044, down 141 from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with prices in various regions unchanged [1] - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton, and the domestic market transaction price was in the range of 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, with the price center slightly moving down [1] Strategy - Short - term interval operation is recommended. For contracts during the dry season, long positions can be taken at low prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2601 fluctuated, opening at 54,325 yuan/ton and closing at 54,355 yuan/ton, up 1.58% from the previous day. The position of the main contract reached 114,932 lots, and the trading volume was 208,200 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 258,000 tons, up 1.98% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.47GW, up 6.70% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, down 4.84% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, up 2.65% month - on - month [3] - The price of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, but the price of 210R silicon wafers showed signs of weakness [3][4] Strategy - Short - term interval operation is recommended. The 11th main contract will fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12th contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. In the medium - to long - term, long positions can be laid out at low prices [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Fluctuation [2] - Glass: Fluctuation [2] - Soda ash: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 50: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 300: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Fluctuation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Fluctuation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Uptrend [4] - Gold: High-level fluctuation [3] - Silver: High-level fluctuation [3] - Logs: Weak fluctuation [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Weak fluctuation [5] - Edible oils: Range-bound operation [5] - Meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [5] - Live pigs: Fluctuation with a slight upward trend [7] - Rubber: Fluctuation [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Fluctuation [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The macro environment is warming up due to Sino-US talks and the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in commodity prices at low levels. However, different industries face different supply and demand situations [2][3]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets clear goals for economic and social development, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery [4]. - Gold prices are affected by multiple factors such as interest rate policies, geopolitical risks, and inflation data, and are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term [3]. - The supply and demand of various commodities vary. Some are facing oversupply, while others are affected by factors such as weather, policies, and seasonal changes [2][3][5][7][9]. Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The supply is abundant, the demand is at a low level, and the port inventory is accumulating. The main lines to watch are the implementation of coal and coke "anti-involution" policies, steel mill profits and maintenance flexibility, terminal demand release intensity, and macro policy signals [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Driven by macro policy expectations, the market is concerned about the introduction of demand-side policies. The core contradiction is the low profit level of steel mills, and the second round of coke price increases has been implemented. Short-term attention should be paid to the resonance of macro and industrial expectations [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The macro environment is warming up, but the domestic demand for steel is weak. The steel price may stop falling if the production reduction in the fourth quarter of 2025 is more than 5% and the "anti-involution" policy is strongly implemented [2]. - **Glass**: The demand is weak, the inventory is increasing, and the short-term price rebounds. The key is whether macro and production reduction policies can bring a turnaround [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The "15th Five-Year Plan" and the central bank's monetary policy are positive for the market. The market is in short-term consolidation, and the bullish sentiment is rising. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is falling, and the central bank is conducting reverse repurchase operations. The market is trending slightly upward, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver prices are affected by interest rate policies, geopolitical risks, and inflation data. The short-term market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate meeting, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [3]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The supply is increasing seasonally, the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The delivery rules of log futures may be optimized [5]. - **Pulp**: The cost support is weakening, the demand is poor, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. - **Offset paper**: The supply pressure exists, the demand has not improved, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Edible oils**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to continue the range-bound operation. Attention should be paid to the weather in the Brazilian soybean production area and the production and sales changes of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - **Meal**: Supported by trade optimism, the price of US soybean futures has risen. The supply of domestic soybean meal is increasing, and the demand is also strong. The price is expected to rebound in the short term [5]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight is increasing, the demand is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upward. The slaughter rate is increasing, and the fat-to-standard price difference is widening [7]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather conditions, the demand is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The supply and demand of these products are different, and the prices are mainly affected by cost and market conditions. Some are in a wait-and-see state, and some are expected to fluctuate [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, with supply at a low level and showing signs of a slight rebound, while terminal demand remains sluggish. The report anticipates that the glass market will mainly experience a volatile and weak trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1113 yuan/ton, showing a 1.64% increase; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - sized sheets was 1044 yuan/ton, a 0.76% decrease; the main basis was - 69 yuan/ton, a 60.47% increase [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - sized sheets in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1044 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis Cost - side No specific content was summarized in the given text. Production and Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%, and the daily melting volume was 161,300 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history but showing signs of stabilization and recovery [23][25]. Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons. Downstream processing plant orders were generally weak, and real - estate terminal demand was sluggish [29]. Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 66.613 million weight boxes, a 3.64% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [44]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and other data of float glass showed certain fluctuations. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption was 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [45]. Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [4]. Negative Factors - Real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventory [5]. Main Logic - Glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and there have been more supply - side disturbances recently. However, the recovery of terminal demand is weak, so it is expected that the glass market will mainly show a volatile trend [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of Shanghai Nickel (SHFE Nickel) 2512 is to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy around the 20 - day moving average, testing the cost support. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but there are some short - term factors affecting the market [2]. - The view of Stainless Steel 2512 is to operate in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Price Overview - **Nickel Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 28, the price of SHFE Nickel main contract was 120,560 yuan, down 1,840 yuan from the previous day; LME Nickel was 15,245, down 90; the price of Stainless Steel main contract was 12,750 yuan, down 65 yuan. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,150 yuan, down 900 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123,400 yuan, down 900 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 121,500 yuan, down 750 yuan; nickel beans were 123,550 yuan, down 750 yuan [11]. - **Stainless Steel Spot Prices**: Cold - rolled coil 304*2B in Wuxi remained at 13,800 yuan; in Foshan, it was 13,750 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Hangzhou, it remained at 13,700 yuan; in Shanghai, it remained at 13,750 yuan [11]. 3.2. Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: As of October 28, LME nickel inventory was 251,436 tons, an increase of 198 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 31,385 tons, an increase of 1,605 tons; the total inventory was 282,821 tons, an increase of 1,803 tons [14]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On October 24, the inventory in Wuxi was 601,100 tons, in Foshan was 302,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,027,400 tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 649,300 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons. As of October 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 73,896 tons, unchanged from the previous day [18][19]. 3.3. Cost - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices**: On October 28, the price of laterite nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 58 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; with Ni0.9% was 30 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11.5 US dollars per ton, unchanged; to Tianjin Port was 12.5 US dollars per ton, unchanged. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 926.5 yuan per nickel point, down 2 yuan; the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3,150 yuan per ton, unchanged [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost was 12,904 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,125 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,718 yuan [25]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The converted import price was 122,324 yuan per ton [28]. 3.4. Fundamental Factors - **Nickel Fundamentals**: The price of nickel ore is firm, the rainy season in the Philippines is approaching, and mines are holding prices. The price of ferronickel is stable with a slight decline, and the cost line has loosened downward. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost is limited. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [2]. - **Stainless Steel Fundamentals**: The spot price of stainless steel has decreased slightly. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, the freight is stable, the price of ferronickel is stable with a slight decline, the cost line has moved down, and the inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly [4]. 3.5. Basis - **Nickel Basis**: The spot price was 122,150 yuan, and the basis was 1,590 yuan, showing a bullish signal [2]. - **Stainless Steel Basis**: The average price of stainless steel was 13,750 yuan, and the basis was 1,000 yuan, showing a bullish signal [4]. 3.6. Market Sentiment (Position) - **Nickel Market Sentiment**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has increased, showing a bearish signal [2].

Summary of the Conference Call for Hongsheng Huayuan Company Overview - **Company**: Hongsheng Huayuan - **Industry**: Power Transmission and Equipment Manufacturing Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: 7.7 billion CNY for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 89% [2] - **Gross Margin**: Improved to 12.13%, up from 9.11% year-on-year, reflecting a 3.02 percentage point increase [3] - **Net Profit**: 12.83 billion CNY, a 58% increase year-on-year; non-recurring net profit was 2.7 billion CNY, up 89% [3] Production and Delivery - **Total Shipment Volume**: Approximately 1.1 million tons, consistent with the previous year [2] - **Self-owned Capacity**: Increased by about 20% due to investments in smart manufacturing; external processing ratio decreased to about 10% [6] - **New Projects**: Planned capacity expansion through new projects in Zhejiang and Anhui, with an expected 40% increase in capacity from the new Zhejiang facility [4][19] Market Dynamics - **Domestic vs. International Orders**: Domestic orders accounted for 85% of total orders, while international orders made up 15%. The international market has a shorter delivery cycle and higher gross margins [8][14] - **Price Trends**: Overall bidding prices decreased by approximately 500 CNY per ton compared to the previous year, influenced by raw material price fluctuations [10] - **Impact of Anti-Competition Policies**: The anti-competition policy is expected to favor larger companies, potentially benefiting Hongsheng Huayuan as smaller competitors struggle [11] Project and Order Insights - **High Voltage Projects**: Participation in several high voltage projects, with a stable market share of around 20% in the South Grid high voltage project [25] - **New Orders**: New orders amounted to over 12 billion CNY in the first three quarters, showing significant volume growth despite a decrease in order prices [26] Challenges and Risks - **Asset Impairment**: Increased asset impairment due to long order execution cycles and raw material price fluctuations affecting profitability [23] - **Inventory Valuation**: The company adopts a cautious approach to inventory valuation, accounting for potential declines in raw material and inventory values [24] Future Outlook - **Expansion Plans**: The company is considering further capacity expansion in southern regions and other locations to meet growing demand [19] - **International Market Strategy**: Plans to strengthen international business development, particularly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia [14][18] Conclusion Hongsheng Huayuan is experiencing significant growth in revenue and profit margins, driven by strategic investments in capacity and efficiency. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on both domestic and international market opportunities while navigating challenges related to pricing and competition.

Core Insights - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the first nine months of the year, marking the highest cumulative growth rate since August of the previous year, with 26 industries showing improved profit growth or reduced declines [1][3] - In September alone, the profit growth rate surged to 21.6% year-on-year, an acceleration of 1.2 percentage points compared to August [2][3] Industry Performance - In September, 30 out of 41 major industrial sectors reported profit growth, with significant increases in sectors such as mining, pharmaceuticals, and chemical fiber manufacturing, where profits grew by over 100% month-on-month [5][6] - The mining sector's profit growth was primarily driven by a decrease in cost rates, which fell from 90.8% to 89%, leading to a profit margin increase from 1.1% to 2.3% [6][7] - The pharmaceutical manufacturing sector saw a profit increase due to a 31% year-on-year revenue growth and a seasonal decline in cost rates, with profit margins rising from 10% in August to 17% in September [6][7] - The chemical fiber manufacturing sector experienced a profit improvement despite a 2% decline in revenue, attributed to a rise in profit margins from 2.1% in August to 4.6% in September, supported by a 1.2 percentage point decrease in cost rates [7] Economic Factors - The significant profit increase in September is partly attributed to a low base effect from the previous year, where profits had decreased by 27.6% [3][4] - The overall profit growth is supported by a rebound in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and a continuous decline in expense ratios, which fell from 8.9% last year to 8.3% this year [3][4] - Future profit sustainability may depend on domestic demand expansion policies and external economic conditions, including U.S.-China negotiations and Federal Reserve interest rate paths [4]