Global Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a robust global economic growth of 2.8% in 2026, surpassing the market consensus of 2.6% [1][2] - The US economy is expected to grow by 2.8%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 2.0%, driven by reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and a more accommodative financial environment [1][4] - China's economy is projected to grow by 4.8%, exceeding the market forecast of 4.5%, with strong exports offsetting domestic demand weakness [1][2] - The Eurozone is anticipated to grow by 1.3%, above the consensus of 1.1%, supported by fiscal stimulus in Germany and strong growth in Spain [1][2][7] US Economic Forecast - The US economy is expected to benefit from tax cuts, a loose financial environment, and reduced tariff drag, leading to a significant outperformance compared to market consensus [4] - Consumers are projected to receive approximately $100 billion in additional tax refunds in the first half of the year, accounting for 0.4% of annual disposable income [4] - Despite global GDP growth, the labor market remains weak, with employment growth rates in developed economies below pre-pandemic levels [6] Eurozone Economic Forecast - The Eurozone faces structural weaknesses exacerbated by competition from China, including population decline and high energy costs, yet is expected to grow at a "considerable" rate of 1.3% in 2026 [7] - Germany's GDP growth is expected to benefit from significant federal government spending increases, while Southern Europe, particularly Spain, is projected to maintain robust growth [7] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in the US is expected to moderate, with core PCE inflation currently at 2.3%, and factors such as falling oil prices and increased productivity contributing to a downward trend [8] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower its policy rate by 50 basis points to a range of 3-3.25% in 2026, as inflation concerns are expected to be resolved [10] - The Bank of England is also expected to implement quarterly rate cuts, reaching 3% by the third quarter of 2026 [10] Market Implications - The basic predictions from Goldman Sachs are favorable for stocks and many emerging market assets, with the market already pricing in improved US economic growth and declining inflation [10] - However, concerns about a weak labor market potentially leading to recession fears and skepticism regarding the value of AI-related revenues may increase market volatility [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that China's December CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, below the expected 0.9%, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, better than the expected -2.0% [1][26][40] - December CPI's year-on-year increase is attributed to rising food prices and improved domestic supply-demand relationships, with PPI's decline narrowing due to ongoing capacity management in key industries [2][27][46] - The overall improvement in inflation is supported by the implementation of year-end policy financial tools and accelerated infrastructure projects, leading to a slight recovery in domestic demand [3][27][46] Group 2 - Food prices significantly contributed to the CPI increase, with food inflation rising from 0.2% to 1.1%, impacting CPI by approximately 0.17 percentage points [9][34] - Core CPI remained stable at a high of 1.2%, driven by increased consumer demand and rising prices of gold jewelry, which surged by 68.5% [10][35] - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 1.9% reflects a narrowing of price drops in several sectors, including coal mining and lithium battery manufacturing, indicating a positive trend in market competition [15][40][41] Group 3 - The domestic demand remains weak, but the ongoing capacity management in key industries is expected to support price increases in related sectors, leading to a gradual narrowing of PPI declines [22][46] - The anticipated recovery in CPI and PPI is expected to enhance corporate earnings, providing support for stock market fundamentals, while also raising long-term inflation expectations that could negatively impact bond prices [23][47]

格隆汇1月9日｜高盛认为，鉴于通胀关切将是中期选举前的关键问题，特朗普政府将铜进口关税的决定 推迟到明年的风险加大。该行的基准预期仍是2026年年中宣布15%的关税，并于2027年落实，但对这一 预期的信心水平降低。高盛将第一季度LME铜价平均价格预期从每吨11550美元上调至13000美元；但 预计到年底价格仍将回落至每吨11000美元。 （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

米兰呼吁2026年降息150个基点 来源：金十数据 美国财政部长贝森特周四强烈表达了政府对降低利率的渴望，称这是未来经济增长的关键。与此同时， 美联储理事米兰呼吁2026年降息150个基点以提振就业。 贝森特将在明尼苏达经济俱乐部发表的演讲中，对特朗普的经济议程表示支持，并指出更宽松的货币政 策将为未来的收益铺平道路。 据政府内部获取的演讲摘要，贝森特表示："降息将对每一位明尼苏达人的生活产生切实影响。这是实 现更强劲经济增长的唯一缺失要素。因此，美联储不应拖延。" 美联储在2025年的最后四个月内连续批准了三次降息，共计0.75个百分点，将基准利率降至3.5%-3.75% 的区间。 然而，预计今年的降息步伐将大幅放缓。市场目前定价仅为两次降息，而美联储官员的最新预测则指向 仅有一次。 这一局面的一个变数是美联储今年将迎来一位新主席，贝森特正负责这一遴选过程。现任主席鲍威尔的 任期将于5月结束，财长已将候选人名单缩减至五人。 虽然低利率可能带来通胀重燃的风险，但也可能有助于支撑放缓的劳动力市场。 贝森特表示："2025年，特朗普总统通过历史性地通过'大而美法案'（One Big Beautiful Bill） ...

本次非农就业数据中的新增就业人数、失业率及薪资增速表现，将成为评估美国劳动力市场紧张程度的关键，直接影响市场 对通胀持续性及美联储加息终点的预期。 若数据显著强于预期，可能强化市场对美联储延长紧缩周期或提高终端利率的押注，从而为美元提供短期上行支撑，加大英 镑兑美元的下行压力。 反之，若数据表现疲软，则可能引发市场对经济放缓及政策转向的预期，限制美元的进一步上涨空间，甚至促使其回调，从 而缓解英镑的被动贬值压力。 英镑兑美元汇率周五亚洲时段窄幅波动，现交投于1.3435附近，略高于本周早些时候触及的低点。当前市场处于观望状态， 等待今日稍晚公布的美国非农就业报告提供方向指引。 近期美股情绪保持相对稳定，风险偏好未明显恶化，也在一定程度上抑制了美元的避险需求，对其上行空间形成侧面约束。 英国央行在近期表态中弱化了进一步激进加息的必要性，政策指引趋于平衡，暗示当前利率水平可能已接近"中性"，既不对 经济构成刺激，也不形成抑制。 这一政策立场的转变，可能意味着英国央行的加息周期已进入尾声，其与美联储等主要央行的政策落差有望逐步收窄，这在 中期结构上或对英镑汇率构成支撑。 后续市场将密切关注英国通胀数据——尤其是服务 ...

晚间（1月8日），美国三大股指集体下跌，纳指更是在开盘后跳水，截至收盘，道指收盘上涨270.03 点，涨幅为0.55%，报49266.11点；纳指跌104.26点，跌幅为0.44%，报23480.02点；标普500指数涨0.52 点，涨幅为0.01%，报6921.45点。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数在低开后爆发，截至收盘，热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金 龙指数涨1.09%。哔哩哔哩涨逾6%，腾讯音乐、阿里巴巴涨超5%，金山云、小鹏汽车等涨超3%，京 东、唯品会等涨超2%，中通快递、富途控股等涨超1%。 另外值得注意的是黄金与白银，截至发稿，现货黄金跌超0.6%，白银更是暴跌逾5%。 世界黄金协会发布公告称，黄金在2025年12月份录得4%的涨幅，推动全年同比增长率达67%，创下数 十年来的最高年度回报纪录。2025年12月贵金属（包括白银和铂金）的飙升以及大宗商品指数再平衡， 可能在短期内引发市场波动。 据报道，美国财长贝森特表示，当前经济若要进一步走强，唯一欠缺的因素是美联储更大幅度的降息。 美联储理事米兰表示，他期望2026年降息150个基点，以提振劳动力市场。米兰在描述货币政策具有限 制性时表 ...

CBO预计，目前处于3.5%至3.75%区间的短期利率，到今年第四季度将降至约3.4%，并在此水平附近维 持至2028年。这意味着，美联储在完成有限的政策调整后，或将进入较长时间的观望期。 智通财经APP获悉，美国国会预算办公室(CBO)周四发布最新经济展望称，美联储可能还会小幅下调利 率，以"应对劳动力市场的下行风险"，但在此之后将暂停进一步宽松。报告指出，在关税上调以及特朗 普政府减税政策刺激需求的背景下，通胀预计将在未来数年持续高于美联储2%的目标水平。 经济增长方面，CBO预计美国今年经济增速将加快至2.2%，但在2027年至2028年期间，平均增速将回 落至1.8%。报告指出，人工智能推动的生产率提升以及减税政策带来的企业投资增加，将在一定程度 上抵消移民减少导致劳动力增速放缓的负面影响。 在宏观数据方面，CBO预测，美国失业率将在今年底升至4.6%，随后逐步回落，并于2028年降至 4.4%。以美联储偏好的指标衡量，通胀率预计今年降至2.7%，到2028年进一步回落至2.1%，但在相当 一段时间内仍高于政策目标。 总体来看，CBO的判断较美联储官员自身的预测略显悲观。美联储政策制定者在去年12月中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Current policy interest rates are considered "clearly above neutral levels" according to Federal Reserve Governor Milan, who also anticipates a cumulative interest rate cut of approximately 150 basis points by 2026 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Milan emphasizes that it is "hard to believe" that current policy rates are neutral, indicating a preference for lower interest rates [1] - He advocates for the potential of the U.S. economy to expand employment without triggering inflation, suggesting that around one million jobs could be added without causing inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ADP Research report shows that private sector employment in the U.S. increased by 41,000 in December, which fell short of market expectations [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data from the U.S. Labor Department is anticipated, with economists predicting a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5% for December [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI rose from 52.6 in November to 54.4 in December, exceeding market expectations of 52.2, marking 10 consecutive months of expansion[2] - The Services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 1.9%[2] - The Manufacturing PMI decreased from 48.2 in November to 47.9 in December, below the market expectation of 48.4, indicating continued contraction[2] Group 2: Employment and Inflation - The Employment Index in the Services sector increased from 48.9 to 52, indicating a rebound in the job market for the first time since the implementation of tariffs[2] - The Prices Index in the Services sector decreased from 65.4 to 64.3, returning to pre-tariff levels while still indicating rapid expansion[2] - Inflation is expected to decline slightly in the short term due to falling oil prices and slowing rent increases, but may rise again in the second half of the year[1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The U.S. economy is projected to maintain a robust growth rate of 4.3% in Q3, driven by strong consumer spending and a rebound in net exports[2] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, adjusting the target federal funds rate from 3.5%-3.75% at the end of 2025 to 3.25%-3.50% by the end of 2026[1] - Risk asset prices may experience volatility as expectations for tighter dollar liquidity increase in the latter half of the year[1]

Core Viewpoint - The rising copper prices in 2025 are a source of optimism for traders, but the copper market in 2026 may be significantly influenced by stock market performance, potentially leading to adverse outcomes for industrial metals [1] Price Trends - In early 2025, copper prices were approximately $4 per pound, with fluctuations that saw prices exceed $5.25 before dropping below $4.50, ultimately closing the year around $5.7 [1] - The potential for copper prices to remain above $6 in 2026 is contingent on the resilience of the stock market, with a normal correction risk pointing towards $4.50 [1]