花旗集团利率交易部门表示，市场对美国通胀前景过于自满，因此押注价格压力上升的交易具有吸引力。花旗利率交易台策略师本杰明.威尔特希尔表 示，投资者可能低估了美国消费者的韧性，市场对通胀的预期很可能会被小幅上调。他表示："市场似乎坚信通胀会回落，但我们仍处于一个结构性更高 的通胀环境。"他建议投资者买入"五年期远期通胀掉期"。当前，美联储偏好的核心通胀指标依然顽固地维持在略低于3%的水平。 越来越多迹象显示，他们的担忧并非空穴来风。1月份，美国国债与通胀保值债券之间的收益率差大幅上升，升至数月高位。作为另一项市场预期指标的 通胀掉期也同步走高。 对通胀将卷土重来的观点基于对美国经济强劲将重新推高物价的预期，尤其是如果美国总统提名的下一任美联储主席凯文.沃什推动更快或更大幅度的降 息。更广泛地看，商品价格上涨、政府大规模举债以及人工智能支出激增，也加剧了通胀压力。 瑞银集团高级交易员本.皮尔逊表示，由美国主导的"通胀性繁荣"是今年投资者低估的最大风险。皮尔逊称，如果这种情况成为现实，将使美联储在上半 年"完全按兵不动"，并迫使市场在下半年重新计入加息预期。渣打银行G-10策略主管史蒂文.巴罗预测，如果白宫对降息的渴 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Nasdaq faces downward pressure, and the downward risk of US stocks will spill over. US stock funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors. It is advisable to exit long positions in stock index futures, reduce equity - type assets, or use short positions in stock index futures to hedge risks or buy put options for protection [4][6]. - China's inflation level moderately rebounded in January. The central bank maintains ample liquidity, supporting long positions in treasury bonds. Treasury bond futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. - After previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of precious metals is narrowing. However, there is still a possibility of significant fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control risks and hold light positions [5]. - For the "Three Oils and Two Meals" strategy, it is recommended to close long positions in double meals before the festival to lock in profits and pay attention to the decline expectation after the festival. For vegetable oils, it is recommended to exit previous long positions, hold light positions during the holiday, and resume trading after the festival [23][29][31]. - For sugar and jujubes, it is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - and long - term, use options for risk control, or hold empty positions during the holiday [24][35]. - For cotton, apples, and logs, cotton is expected to maintain a volatile pattern; apples are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term; logs are expected to have an upward price space [25][36][37][38]. - For corn, hogs, and eggs, it is necessary to pay attention to relevant risks such as grain quality, supply pressure, and chicken culling rhythm after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday [26][39][40][42]. - For crude oil, the price is expected to show a short - term upward - trending volatility before the outcome of the US - Iran situation is determined [49]. - For lithium carbonate, the fundamentals are strong, but it is necessary to manage positions during the holiday [52]. - For methanol, it is in an interval - running pattern, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation during the holiday [55]. - For urea, the price is likely to rise but is restricted by policies. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and domestic demand progress during the holiday [58]. - For pure benzene, the price is expected to show a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and post - holiday demand [61]. - For bottle chips, the price is expected to follow the raw material end in a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and crude oil performance [62]. - For rubber series, it is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to the overseas market [66]. - For steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, and ferroalloys, it is recommended to significantly reduce positions to avoid risks during the holiday [67][68][69][70]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper prices may be suppressed by the strengthening US dollar; for aluminum, alumina, and caustic soda, it is recommended to hold light positions and operate cautiously during the holiday [85][86][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - The rebound of the Nasdaq is a technical pullback after breaking below the semi - annual line. Hedge funds have sold US stocks for four consecutive weeks, and the selling in the first week of February was the most intense since April last year [4]. - Investors are worried that the industry disruption brought by AI may be more extensive than expected, and companies planning to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in AI construction may not meet high - profit expectations. US stock funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors [4]. - It is recommended to exit long positions in stock index futures, reduce equity - type assets, or use short positions in stock index futures to hedge risks or buy put options for protection [4]. Treasury Bonds - In January, China's overall inflation level moderately rebounded. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month [5]. - In January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderate economy in January [5]. - The central bank maintains ample liquidity, supporting long positions in treasury bonds. Treasury bond futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. Precious Metals Gold and Silver - After previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of precious metals is narrowing. The COMEX gold may form an equilibrium at around $5000 per ounce, and the COMEX silver at around $80 per ounce [5]. - However, due to the long Spring Festival holiday and many uncertainties in overseas markets, there is still a possibility of significant fluctuations in gold and silver [5]. Palladium - Before the festival, palladium shows characteristics of spot shortage, high - price volatility, and being dominated by macro - sentiment. The short - term support is strong, but the callback risk is prominent [19]. - It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies, operate cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, and avoid chasing up. Short - term short positions can be tried lightly above 400 yuan per gram [19]. Platinum - Before the festival, platinum prices are highly volatile, in a pattern of tight supply - demand balance and low inventory. The medium - and long - term structural shortage supports prices, but the short - term callback and basis reversal risks are prominent [22]. - It is recommended to operate cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, and avoid one - sided short selling [22]. Three Oils and Two Meals Three Oils - Policy: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the exchange raises margins to control risks, leading to a decline in market trading enthusiasm and downward pressure on the vegetable oil market [29]. - Macro: The US - Iran negotiation results have a significant impact on international crude oil prices, and vegetable oil futures prices will follow to some extent [29]. - Fundamentals: The US biodiesel policy boosts US soybean oil, while Indonesia cancels the 2026 B50 biodiesel plan, pressuring Malaysian palm oil. Domestic vegetable oil Spring Festival stocking is over, and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress is accelerating, bringing pressure to the vegetable oil market [29]. - It is recommended to exit previous long positions in vegetable oils, hold light positions during the holiday, and resume trading after the festival [29]. Two Meals - Policy: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the exchange raises margins to control risks, leading to a decline in market trading enthusiasm [31]. - Macro: China's new round of purchases of US soybeans pushes up US soybean prices, and there are rumors of tightening import grain policies in China [31]. - Fundamentals: The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the expected 184 million tons of production weakens the South American soybean discount. There are rumors of a 5 - million - ton auction of old - reserve imported soybeans after the Spring Festival in China, and the supply pressure is increasing [31]. - It is recommended to close long positions in double meals before the festival to lock in profits [31]. Sugar and Jujubes - Sugar: The recent ICE raw sugar has fallen below the 14 - cent - per - pound integer support, reaching a five - year low. The global sugar supply - demand balance sheet exerts pressure on sugar prices, and the domestic sugar spot trading is stagnant before the festival. It is recommended to use options for risk control or hold empty positions during the holiday [35]. - Jujubes: Before the festival, jujube futures prices rebounded due to the exit of short positions. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing prices. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - and long - term and hold previous high - level short positions during the holiday [35]. Cotton, Apples, and Logs Cotton - The international cotton market is in a loose pattern. The supply shows structural changes, and the consumption is differentiated. The domestic supply is abundant, and the downstream trading is slowing down before the festival. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [36]. Apples - The pre - festival trading in apple production areas is basically over. The cold - storage good - quality apples are in short supply, raising the cost of warehouse receipts. Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [37]. Logs - The log futures market has both bullish and bearish factors. The price of 3 - meter wood squares in Lanshan area is rising, and the market expects the log price to have an upward space, injecting positive factors into the futures market [38]. Corn, Hogs, and Eggs Corn - Short - term: The spot market trading is light before the Spring Festival, with narrow - range fluctuations. Medium - term: There is still inventory - building demand after the Spring Festival, and a wide - range trading idea should be maintained. Long - term: The pricing logic is still based on substitution + planting cost [39]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to the post - holiday grain quality and policy - grain auction [39]. Hogs - Short - term: The supply of hogs is abundant, and the consumption support is weak before the holiday. Medium - term: The supply pressure will continue to be released before March, and will be alleviated from April. Long - term: The supply pressure will still exist before August, and the far - month contract expectations are lowered [40]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and focus on the post - holiday supply pressure and disease situation [40]. Eggs - Short - term: The spot trading is light before the Spring Festival, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in February is putting pressure on egg prices. Medium - term: The egg supply pressure is postponed. Long - term: The continuous expansion of the egg - laying hen breeding scale may limit the price increase space [42]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and focus on the chicken culling and molting rhythm around the Spring Festival [42]. Crude Oil - The US - Iran negotiation and market liquidity have affected the crude oil price recently. The price is expected to show a short - term upward - trending volatility before the outcome of the US - Iran situation is determined [49]. Lithium Carbonate - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, leading to the stabilization of precious metals and the rebound of the non - ferrous sector. The fundamentals are strong, with production and inventory decreasing. The lithium - battery industry's production plan in March is expected to reach a new high [52]. - It is necessary to manage positions during the holiday [52]. Methanol - The methanol port inventory is at a high level, and the overseas Iranian methanol plants are expected to gradually resume in March. The price is in an interval - running pattern, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation during the holiday [55]. Urea - Urea factories have been destocking since mid - October last year, and the price is supported by reserve demand and agricultural stocking. However, high daily production still exerts pressure. The price is likely to rise but is restricted by policies. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and domestic demand progress during the holiday [58]. Pure Benzene - Crude oil provides strong cost support for pure benzene. Although the current market is weak, the future supply - demand pattern is good. It is expected that the price will show a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and post - holiday demand [61]. Bottle Chips - Crude oil provides strong cost support for bottle chips. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw material end in a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and crude oil performance [62]. Rubber Series Natural Rubber - Before the festival, natural rubber prices are oscillating strongly. The overseas raw material is in the production - reduction season, and the overall warming of commodities boosts the price. However, the seasonal inventory accumulation may suppress the market during the holiday. It is recommended to hold light long positions during the holiday [66]. Synthetic Rubber - Recently, BR has been oscillating. Before the festival, the supply of butadiene is not significantly replenished, and the market trading is light. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to overseas geopolitical events and crude oil trends [66]. Steel - The exchange has raised the margin to 12%. There are risks such as insufficient macro - policy easing, liquidity decline, raw material price fluctuations, and external market linkages. It is recommended to significantly reduce positions to avoid risks during the holiday [73]. Iron Ore - The margin has been increased from 11% to 13%, and the daily limit has been raised from 9% to 11%. There are risks such as high inventory, loose supply - demand, pre - holiday capital withdrawal, and external market fluctuations during the holiday. It is recommended to significantly reduce positions [76]. Coking Coal and Coke - Before the Spring Festival, the coking coal spot trading is relatively sluggish, and the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to post - holiday policies and coal imports [80]. Ferroalloys - Before the Spring Festival, the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures continue the pattern of "cost support, weak demand, and interval oscillation". The supply and demand of the two types of ferroalloys are different. It is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday and pay attention to supply - side changes and post - holiday resumption of work [83]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March has been significantly reduced, and the strengthening US dollar will suppress copper prices. There are also risks such as tariff expectations, inventory accumulation, and demand substitution [90]. Aluminum - Before the festival, Shanghai aluminum is oscillating weakly, restricted by high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to hold light positions, operate cautiously, and conduct intraday trading to avoid overnight risks [92]. Alumina - Before the festival, alumina prices are weakly oscillating, under pressure from cost, supply, and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, conduct intraday trading, and avoid one - sided short selling [95]. Caustic Soda - Before the festival, the caustic soda price is under pressure, showing a weak - oscillating trend. It is recommended to short on rallies, operate cautiously, and hold light positions during the holiday [98].

Group 1: Australian Economic Outlook - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Deputy Governor, Andrew Hagger, warned that inflation remains "too high," posing a significant challenge for the interest rate-setting committee, which cannot allow this situation to persist for too long [1][6] - Hagger indicated that part of the price increase reflects rising demand in the economy against supply constraints, suggesting that the risk of sustained high inflation may continue [1][6] - The RBA's measures to achieve an economic soft landing post-pandemic have resulted in the Australian economy being closer to a balanced state compared to some international peers, with any economic activity surge potentially driving up prices [1][6] Group 2: Currency Movements - The Australian dollar (AUD) experienced a significant rise, breaking the 0.7100 mark, supported by Hagger's hawkish comments that heightened expectations for RBA rate hikes [4][10] - The AUD is projected to continue its upward trend, making it one of the best-performing currencies this year [1][6] - The rise in commodity prices, including oil and copper, has also provided support for the AUD [4][10] Group 3: Federal Reserve Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate until May, with a potential rate cut following the appointment of a new chair in June [2][7] - Over 70% of surveyed economists expressed concerns about the significant loss of independence of the Federal Reserve [2][7] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair has led to mixed opinions among economists regarding his policy stance, with early indications leaning towards tightening but recent comments suggesting a possible inclination towards rate cuts [2][8] Group 4: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have been on the rise, recovering above the 5100 mark, driven by persistent risk aversion in the market and central banks increasing their gold reserves [3][9] - However, strong U.S. non-farm payroll data has tempered expectations for Fed rate cuts, limiting the rebound potential for gold [3][9] Group 5: USD/CAD Currency Dynamics - The USD/CAD pair saw a slight increase, trading around 1.3580, supported by technical buying near the 1.3500 level and a strong dollar index following robust non-farm payroll data [5][11] - Concerns over oil supply have limited the rebound potential for the USD/CAD pair [5][11]

新华社伦敦2月12日电（记者张亚东）英国国家统计局12日公布的数据显示，在服务业等行业带动 下，2025年英国经济增长1.3%。 受美国关税政策及英国国内财政政策不确定性等因素影响，2025年英国经济增长呈"前高后低"形 态。2025年第一季度英国经济环比增长0.7%，而第四季度环比增速仅为0.1%，不及市场预期。 按行业看，2025年英国服务业产出增长1.4%，制造业产出增长0.2%，建筑业产出增长1.8%。 分析人士指出，由于财政政策不确定性消退，2026年初英国经济较去年底有所恢复。但英国通胀仍 高于目标水平，企业投资意愿不强，2026年英国经济增速预计在1%左右。2024年英国经济增长1.1%。 （完） ...

美国1月非农就业数据全线超预期，但机构普遍认为，在年度基准修正揭示去年就业虚高、行业增长高度集中的背景下，劳动力市场修复 基础仍不牢固。 银河证券指出，1月就业增长仍高度集中于医疗等少数行业，结构性特征未见改善，景气持续性有待观察。华泰证券维持美联储6月前暂 停降息的判断，称就业市场下行风险虽有所缓解，但数据改善的可持续性仍需进一步验证。 数据发布后，市场对2026年全年降息的定价收窄8个基点至52个基点，2年期与10年期美债收益率分别上行7个基点和5个基点。分析师认 为，1月数据为联储"按兵不动"提供新的佐证，但并未实质性改变政策路径。 就业增长集中于少数行业 华泰证券表示，1月就业增量仍集中于医疗、零售、建筑等少数行业，景气持续性有待观察。国联民生证券进一步指出，就业复苏的行业 广度依然不足，1月新增就业几乎全部来自医疗保健及社会援助领域，这一结构特征或制约整体生产力修复空间。 具体来看，1月私人部门新增非农就业录得17.2万人，创2025年以来单月新高，但行业分布高度不均。服务部门贡献13.6万人，其中医疗 保健行业单月新增12.4万人，较去年四季度月均5.2万人的水平大幅跳升；零售业增幅有限，休闲酒店 ...

UNForex 2月12日讯（分析师 Stephen）从今日盘面运行来看，现货黄金在亚洲与欧美盘交接时段维持 在约 5000–5100 美元区间内震荡波动。价格在接近上沿压力时屡次受阻，并出现回落；在临近下沿支撑 时则获得承接，盘中形成明显的区间拉锯走势。与近期行情相比，当前盘面未出现单边冲破，节奏显著 放缓，短线方向性不强。 基于当前价格节奏与技术结构，以及宏观事件驱动的预期，行情可能存在以下几种展开方式： 这些展开路径并不互相排斥，关键在于 CPI 公布后的连续性突破是否成立。 从技术走势的角度看，黄金在上行过程中遇到的压制较为明确。5000–5100 美元曾多次充当短线阻力区 域，是多头突破意愿被观察的关键点位。价格虽有反弹冲高动作，但每次上探至该区域时均遭遇明显抛 压，未能形成有效站稳。 若价格能在上方稳定站上阻力区并突破，后市则可能打开更高空间；反之，未突破将继续受限于区间内 震荡。 价格在亚太盘及欧盘阶段多次回落至约 5000 美元附近承接，并在该位置获得明显支撑。即使在短线回 撤过程中，价格也未出现持续下破或单边下跌趋势，这说明下方支撑区域暂时仍然有效。 若该支撑能持续守住，则当前区间震荡结构仍 ...

铝类产业日报 2026/2/12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 23,610.00 | -50.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,808.00 | -34.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -160.00 | -15.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -138.00 | -5.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 159,738.00 | -14665.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 296,788.00 | -15357.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 44,325.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 308,787.00 | +43564.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 3,117.00 | +12.00↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 485,750. ...

| 数据指标 | 项目类别 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF主力合约（2603） | | 4716.8 IH主力合约（2603） 3083.0 | +4.2↑ IF次主力合约（2602） -9.4↓ IH次主力合约（2602） | 4719.4 3082.8 | +3.2↑ -9.0↓ | | IC主力合约（2603） | | 8448.8 | +112.2↑ IC次主力合约（2602） | 8448.2 | +103.2↑ | | IM主力合约（2603） | | 8338.0 | +93.6↑ IM次主力合约（2602） | 8345.4 | +83.0↑ | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 期货盘面 | 1636.6 | +12.0↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3728.8 | +102.6↑ | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | | -102.8 | -20.6↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5365.4 | +114.6↑ | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | | 3626.0 | +82.0↑ ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1126.120 | -4.3↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 20626 | -318.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 154,552.00 | -5958.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 9,092.00 | +42.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 246,621.00 | +28688.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 509,006.00 | +4927.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 105072 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 349,633 | 7531↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 1122.52 | -0.50↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | 19,811.00 | 255.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -3.60 | 3.78↑ 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/ ...

Group 1 - The core trading logic on Wall Street has shifted from identifying AI winners to indiscriminately selling potential AI losers, driven by fears of traditional business models being disrupted by AI advancements [1][2][3] - The recent sell-off has affected various sectors, including SaaS software, insurance brokerage, wealth management, and real estate services, with notable declines such as a 14% drop for JLL and a 12% drop for CBRE, marking their largest single-day declines since the pandemic [1][2] - Gabelli Funds' manager John Belton highlighted that any company with potential disruption risk is facing indiscriminate selling [3] Group 2 - In the A-share market, leveraged funds have begun to reduce their positions after a period of aggressive buying, with net selling occurring on 9 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling 974 billion yuan in sales [3][10] - Major companies experiencing net selling include Kweichow Moutai, Industrial Fulian, and Zhongji Xuchuang, with net selling amounts of -27.88 billion yuan, -23.49 billion yuan, and -23.27 billion yuan respectively [7][8] - Despite the reduction in positions in broad-based ETFs, there has been significant buying in specific ETFs such as Hai Futong Zhongzheng Short Bond ETF and E Fund Zhongzheng Overseas Internet ETF [10] Group 3 - The market is showing a strong interest in sectors related to economic recovery and domestic demand improvement, with significant inflows into the chemical sector and other related industries [17][18] - The recent price increases across various sectors, including upstream resources and consumer goods, indicate a potential inflationary trend, with PPI data showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a narrowing year-on-year decline to -1.4% [21][22] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost consumer spending, with major companies launching significant promotional campaigns and government initiatives to stimulate the economy [26][27]