Core Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a price increase of 0.41%, reaching 111.72 yuan as of June 9, 2025, indicating active market trading with a turnover of 14.11% and a transaction volume of 1.095 billion yuan [1] - The fund's latest scale has reached 7.748 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [2] - The fund's shares have also reached a one-year high of 69.5397 million shares, with a net inflow of 67.8564 million yuan recently [3] Liquidity and Market Conditions - Liquidity is expected to remain balanced and ample in June, with the central bank potentially resuming government bond purchases in June or the second half of the year [1] - The core fluctuation range for 10-year government bonds is anticipated to be between 1.5% and 1.8%, with a flat yield curve expected to persist for an extended period [1] Performance Metrics - As of June 6, 2025, the fund has achieved a net value increase of 14.56% over the past year, ranking 4th out of 390 in the index bond fund category [3] - The fund's highest monthly return since inception was 5.35%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and a maximum increase of 10.58% [3] - The average monthly return during rising months is 2.20%, with a monthly profit percentage of 64.29% and a monthly profit probability of 69.23% [3] - The historical one-year profit probability stands at 100% [3] Risk and Fees - The maximum drawdown since inception is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4] - The management fee for the fund is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5] Tracking Accuracy - The tracking error for the fund over the past year is 0.072% [6]

2025.06. 09 本文字数：2760，阅读时长大约5分钟 6月5日，央行发布消息称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，自6月6日开始，将以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。考虑到当月共有 1.2万亿元买断式逆回购到期，截至6月6日全月实现买断式逆回购2000亿元净回笼。 自2024年10月推出至今，央行已连续8个月开展买断式逆回购操作，即央行主动借出资金，从一级 交易商处购买债券，以此向市场投放流动性，可增强一年以内的流动性跨期调节能力。但此前，央行 惯例是在每月最后一个交易日发布相关公告。 不少分析认为，在当前资金面及债市处于平稳运行状态的情况下，央行月初打破惯例公告大规模买断 式逆回购操作，主要与当月银行同业存单到期规模较大有关。"本次提前公告打破惯例，或意在缓解 存单大额到期给市场带来的心理压力，防止资金面预防式紧张。"华西证券宏观联席首席分析师肖金 川称。 "（这）对市场信心稳定起到了关键作用。"光大证券金融业首席分析师王一峰分析，央行本次操作 释放出三重意义：一是向市场释放清晰信号，将维持货币市场价格稳定；二是当市场价格出现偏离 时，可能进一步 ...

2025 年 06 月 09 日 | | 主力合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌(%) | 振幅(%) | 成 交 | 持 仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2年期 | TS2509 | 102.470 | 102.508 | 102.442 | 102.452 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 34876 | 117087 | | 5年期 | TF2509 | 106.140 | 106.195 | 106.110 | 106.140 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 49178 | 145436 | | 10年期 | T2509 | 108.820 | 108.930 | 108.810 | 108.925 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 54263 | 177112 | | 30年期 | TL2509 | 119.500 | 119.820 | 119.500 | 119.780 | 0.35 | 0.27 | 70269 | 96837 | 资料来源：iFind，国泰君安期货研 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market is facing significant challenges due to low liquidity and a high number of ETFs struggling to maintain their scale, leading to potential liquidation risks for many funds [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - Over 180 ETFs have daily trading volumes below one million yuan, with some even below ten thousand yuan, indicating a liquidity crisis [2][3]. - As of June 5, among 1179 ETFs, 147 have assets below 50 million yuan, and 39 have assets below 20 million yuan, with some ETFs having only a few hundred thousand yuan [3][6]. - The liquidity of ETFs is critical, especially during market volatility, as low liquidity can lead to "liquidity exhaustion" [4][5]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The ETF market exhibits a significant disparity in scale, particularly among core broad-based indices like the CSI 300 ETF, where the top four ETFs exceed 100 billion yuan, while many others struggle to reach 10 million yuan [6][7]. - The head effect is pronounced, with larger ETFs attracting more capital, while smaller ETFs often go unnoticed, leading to a continuous decline in their scale [7][8]. - Many fund companies are facing intense competition and are unable to cover costs, with a significant portion of ETFs operating at a loss [8]. Group 3: Need for Differentiation - Industry experts emphasize the necessity for fund companies to pursue differentiated strategies rather than blindly entering the ETF market [8][9]. - There is a call for innovative product designs that cater to specific investor needs, such as stable income products for insurance funds, and the development of thematic ETFs [9]. - The potential for innovation in ETF products is vast, with strategies like options for downside protection and transparent active ETFs gaining traction in overseas markets [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6]. Core Insights - In late May, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises reached a four-month low, indicating a potential downturn in production [2][45]. - The financing environment index for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in May 2025 was 49.09, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.20%, suggesting slight improvement in liquidity conditions [12][22]. - The report highlights a correlation between M1 and M2 growth rates and the Shanghai Composite Index, with the M1-M2 growth rate difference showing a positive trend [12][22]. Summary by Sections Liquidity - The BCI SME financing environment index for May 2025 is 49.09, up 2.20% month-on-month [12]. - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -6.5 percentage points in April 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [12][22]. - London gold prices increased by 0.64% compared to the previous week [12]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output for key enterprises in late May was 2.091 million tons, marking a 4.91% decrease from April [2][45]. - The national capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points [45]. - The cement price index decreased by 1.44% this week, while the average price of rebar increased by 0.32% [2][64]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points [2]. - The prices of major commodities showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel down 0.81% and copper up 0.87% [2]. Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in May 2025 was 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [4]. - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1154.98 points, up 3.34% from the previous week [4]. Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.88%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +3.24% [4]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.51, with a historical high of 0.82 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels following the recent revisions to the steel industry standards [5].

策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月08日 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。6月6日当周，全球股市整体收涨，港股、美股领涨；主要商品期货中 原油、黄金、铜、铝收涨；美元指数小幅下跌，非美货币中人民币、欧元升值，日元贬值。 1）权益方面：创业板指数>恒生科技指数>纳指>恒生指数>标普500>科创50>深证成指> 德国DAX30>道指>上证指数>沪深300指数>英国富时100>法国CAC40>日经225。2）原 油受贸易关系缓和，OPEC+温和增产等影响，当周大幅反弹；中国央行连续7个月增持黄 金，美联储降息预期扰 ...

Group 1 - The central bank's announcement of a large-scale reverse repurchase operation at the beginning of June is aimed at alleviating market concerns regarding the upcoming maturity of 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) [1][2][3] - The operation involves a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase agreement with a term of three months, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the banking system [2][4] - Analysts believe that the central bank's proactive measures are intended to stabilize market confidence and prevent liquidity tightening, especially with significant CD maturities approaching [3][6] Group 2 - The weighted average issuance rate of interbank CDs has shown initial signs of decline, with a drop from 1.82% to 1.80% recently, indicating a potential easing of market pressures [3][4] - The upcoming week is critical for observing the performance of the interbank CD market, as over 1.2 trillion yuan in CDs will mature, marking the largest single-week maturity volume in history [7] - Despite the pressures from maturing CDs, factors such as increased fiscal spending and seasonal inflows of wealth management funds may help mitigate the outflow of bank deposits [7][8] Group 3 - The central bank's liquidity management strategy may involve increasing medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations to offset the impact of maturing reverse repos, indicating a flexible approach to maintaining liquidity [8] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations due to various factors, including tax payment periods and the maturity of approximately 930 billion yuan in reverse repos [8] - The central bank's clear stance on liquidity support suggests that the funding environment is likely to remain stable despite the anticipated disturbances [8]

周度报告-黄金 美国 5 月非农尚可，黄金冲高回落 ★投资建议： 关税问题继续扰动市场，黄金仍处于震荡区间中，需要注意市场 风险偏好阶段性回升给黄金带来的回调压力。 ★风险提示： 地缘政治风险缓和、美联储鹰派、流动性冲击，将引发黄金回调。 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | 黄金：看跌 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 6 | 2025 年 | 月 | 8 | 日 | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 0.6%至 3310 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.5%，通胀预 期 2.31%，实际利率升至 2.19%，美元指数跌 0.14%至 99.2，标普 500 指数涨 1.5%，离岸人民币小幅升值，沪金溢价收窄。 贵 金 属 金价本周先扬后抑，周初美国对进口的钢铁和铝加征 50%关税， 叠加俄乌局势升温，避险情绪增加，一度推动黄金走强至 3400 美元关口，但周五中美领导人通电话，美国财长等高层与中国将 于 9 日在英国再度开展谈判，美国 5 月非农就业报告整体好于预 期，黄金周五跌超 1%。短期 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月08日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。6月6日当周，全球股市整体收涨，港股、美股领涨；主要商品期货中 原油、黄金、铜、铝收涨；美元指数小幅下跌，非美货币中人民币、欧元升值，日元贬值。 1）权益方面：创业板指数>恒生科技指数>纳指>恒生指数>标普500>科创50>深证成指> 德国DAX30>道指>上证指数>沪深300指数>英国富时100>法国CAC40>日经225。2）原 油受贸易关系缓和，OPEC+温和增产等影响，当周大幅反弹；中国央行连续7个月增持黄 金，美联储降息预期扰 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 买断式逆回购提前公告，资金面平稳宽松 ——流动性和机构行为周度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月 2 日-6 月 6 日，跨月后央行逆回购净回笼资金，但月初公告操作 10000 亿元买断 式逆回购，体现央行对流动性的呵护态度；资金面较为宽松，DR001 在政策利率附近运行。 2025 年 6 月 2 日-6 月 8 日，政府债净缴款规模下降，同业存单到期收益率多数下降，银行间 债券市场杠杆率有所提升。2025 年 6 月 9 日-6 月 15 日政府债预计净缴款-349 亿元，同业存 单到期规模约为 12036 亿元。 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 和过往在月末披露当月操作总量不同，6 月是买断式逆回购工具创设以来首次在操作前发布招 标公告。首先，结合 6 月 5 日央行在官网货币政策工具栏目中新设"中央银行各项工具操作情 况"板块 ...