Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Fats and Oils - Malaysian palm oil may end its rebound and weaken due to potential inventory growth at the end of November. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are expected to strengthen to 8800 yuan in the short - term. The long - term demand for soy oil depends on the US EPA's decision on 2026 biofuel blending obligations, and currently, the domestic demand for soy oil is weak, but the basis is expected to remain stable due to oil mills' price - holding psychology [1]. Hogs - The pig market supply and demand are basically balanced. Pig prices are expected to be weak and volatile in December. The strategy of inter - month reverse spreads can be maintained, and the single - side market is expected to bottom out [4]. Meal Products - The US soybean is supported by the drought risk in the Argentine production area and the interest - rate cut expectation, but is affected by tariffs and Brazilian soybean exports. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to be in a sideways trend with support for the basis due to expected supply decline [8]. Corn - The short - term corn market is firm due to tight supply, but price increases are limited because of unsold pressure. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of corn supply and procurement changes [10]. Sugar - The global raw sugar remains weak. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern, and the market may rebound after the pre - sold sugar is sold out [14][15]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures are stabilizing. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range - bound, with strong support at the bottom and continued hedging pressure [16]. Eggs - The supply pressure of eggs has been relieved, but the terminal demand is weak. Egg futures prices are expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of Dalian palm oil futures rose, with the P2601 contract up 0.79%. The price of soy oil futures (Y2601) was flat, and the price of rapeseed oil futures (Ol601) fell 0.26% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: For palm oil, the production decline in Malaysia and the rise in US soy oil support the price in the short - term, but the expected inventory increase is a potential negative factor. For soy oil, the US biofuel policy affects long - term demand, and currently, domestic demand is weak [1]. Hogs - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the live hog 2605 contract rose 0.21%, and the 2601 contract fell 0.35%. The slaughter volume increased 0.39%, and the breeding profit decreased [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The market supply and demand are balanced, with an expected increase in December supply. The price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the basis of the main contract decreased [4]. Meal Products - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of soy meal futures (M2601) rose 0.20%, and the price of rapeseed meal futures (RM2601) was flat. The import crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans and Canadian rapeseed increased [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The US soybean is affected by multiple factors. The domestic soybean meal market is in a loose pattern, and the basis is supported by expected supply decline [8]. Corn - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the corn 2601 contract rose 0.31%, and the price of corn starch 2601 rose 0.16%. The import cost increased, and the import profit decreased [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply in the northeast and north China is tight, and the demand from deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises is different. The short - term price is firm, but the increase is limited [10]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the sugar 2601 contract fell 0.43%, and the ICE raw sugar rose 1.56%. The domestic sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the inventory decreased [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The global raw sugar is weak, and the domestic sugar market is expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern, with a possible rebound after the pre - sold sugar is sold out [14][15]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the cotton 2605 contract rose 0.22%, and the ICE US cotton fell 0.05%. The domestic cotton spot price rose, and the commercial inventory increased [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The ICE cotton is stabilizing, and the domestic cotton is affected by hedging pressure and demand. The price is expected to be range - bound [16]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the egg 01 contract fell slightly, and the 02 contract rose 0.89%. The egg price in the production area fell 0.20%, and the breeding profit decreased [18]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weak. The egg futures price is expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, positive macro expectations and supply disruption concerns have led to an upward drive in the non - ferrous metals market. Opportunities to go long on copper, aluminum, and tin can be continuously monitored. In the long term, with the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and ongoing supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin, there are expectations of tightening supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: CSPT's agreement on joint production cuts will cause copper prices to fluctuate strongly. - **Information Analysis**: Codelco is raising the annual premium for refined copper sold to Chinese customers. CSPT has reached a consensus to reduce the capacity utilization of ore - copper by over 10% in 2026. In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. On December 2, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper showed a premium, and copper inventory decreased [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising. There are continuous supply disruptions in copper mines, and CSPT's production cut plan strengthens the expectation of supply contraction. Although demand is in the off - season, the market expects a tight supply - demand situation for refined copper next year [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices will continue to be under pressure. - **Information Analysis**: Alumina spot prices remained stable in most regions on December 2. The willingness of futures - cash merchants to sell warehouse receipts is strong. On December 2, the alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the actual supply contraction needs to be observed. The domestic market is still in a strong inventory - building trend, and raw material prices are weak, so the alumina price is under pressure [11]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Macroeconomic sentiment is volatile, and aluminum prices will fluctuate and rise. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased slightly, and the premium remained unchanged. Aluminum rod and electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories decreased. An Australian rescue plan aims to prevent a smelter from closing, and new Indonesian aluminum plants are in operation [12]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, and the dollar index is under pressure. The domestic economy is weakly stable. The supply side has high domestic operating capacity and overseas power shortages. The demand side is stable, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and may rise in the medium term [13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: With strong cost support, the market will fluctuate and rise. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged. The price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The registered warehouse receipts decreased. In October, the import volume of scrap aluminum increased year - on - year [14][15][16]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has increased, but some alloy plants face production cut risks. Demand is marginally improving, and inventory is rising. In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: With the export window open, zinc prices will fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. As of December 2, zinc ingot inventory decreased. A mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining due to an earthquake [18]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December is rising. In the short term, zinc ore supply has loosened, and smelters' profitability is good. The export window has opened, but demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices will fluctuate at a high level, and there is a risk of decline in the long term [18]. 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: With the reduction of social inventory, lead prices may continue to rebound in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and secondary lead remained unchanged. The price of lead ingots increased, and the premium was stable. Lead ingot inventory decreased, and some smelters were under maintenance [19]. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium and price difference are stable, and warehouse receipts are decreasing. Production has decreased due to smelter maintenance, and demand from battery enterprises is improving. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate [20]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: With the easing of the supply side in Indonesia, nickel prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, LME and Shanghai nickel inventories decreased. An Indonesian company plans to focus on three HPAL projects next year. GreenMeiBang's nickel project is in normal production [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation is stable. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and the production of intermediate products has recovered. Nickel salt prices are slightly weaker, and inventory has accumulated significantly. Nickel prices will fluctuate [23]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: With the stable price of nickel - iron, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On December 2, the spot premium of stainless steel in Foshan was positive. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged. GreenMeiBang's nickel project is in normal production [24]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium have declined, weakening cost support. After the peak season, production and demand have decreased, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [25][26]. 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: With continuous supply concerns, tin prices will fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased. The average price of 1 tin ingots decreased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is a core concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State's mining area is slow, and Indonesian exports are restricted. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand from semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Commodity Index - On December 2, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of CITICS Futures all showed slight declines, with changes of - 0.01%, - 0.00%, and - 0.03% respectively [151]. 3.2.2 Special Index No relevant content provided. 3.2.3 Sector Index - On December 2, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index was 2512.54, with a daily decline of - 0.07%, a 5 - day increase of + 1.84%, a 1 - month increase of + 1.86%, and a year - to - date increase of + 8.85% [153].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black building materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be on the sidelines and not chased higher [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions at high levels; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to trade strongly sideways [1][10][13][15] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][17][25] - Cotton and textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade strongly sideways; PTA is expected to rise in a sideways trend; apples are expected to trade strongly sideways; red dates are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][26][29] - Agricultural and livestock: For live pigs, near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and be cautious about chasing rallies in far - term contracts; egg prices are limited in their upward movement; corn suggests hedging on rallies; soybean meal is mainly for range operations; oils are expected to rebound from lows, with a strategy of buying on dips [1][30][35][41] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market outlooks for various futures products across different industries. It analyzes the fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors affecting each product, and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock indices: The external environment has improved, but the market rotation is fast. They are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: After entering December, institutional behavior may be the core variable affecting the bond market. They are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. It is recommended for range trading [7] - Rebar: It is in a policy vacuum period. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is expected to trade sideways at low levels, mainly for short - term trading [7] - Glass: Although there are rumors of production line shutdowns causing a rebound in the futures market, the social inventory pressure is huge, and the year - end demand is weak. It is not advisable to chase higher in the near - term contracts [9] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The safety situation in Congo (Kinshasa) is complex. The long - term demand is optimistic, but the short - term high prices may suppress consumption. It is recommended for range short - term trading [10] - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment has improved, and it may continue to rebound in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels [11] - Nickel: The supply is expected to be loose in the long term. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [13] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply recovery and downstream demand improvement, and for range trading [13] - Gold and silver: Supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and safe - haven demand, gold is for range trading, and silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions [15] - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected to trade strongly sideways. Pay attention to the progress of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of Ningde Jiaxiawo lithium mine [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading, and pay attention to policies and cost - side disturbances [17] - Caustic soda: The valuation is suppressed by the expectation of alumina production cuts. It is recommended to wait and watch [19] - Styrene: The overseas blending logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade sideways, and pay attention to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [19] - Rubber: The market is bearish, and the demand improvement is limited. It is recommended for range trading [21] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade sideways [22] - Methanol: The supply in the inland has recovered, and the port inventory has decreased. It is recommended for range trading [24] - Polyolefins: The inventory is decreasing, but the demand is insufficient after the peak season. PE is expected to trade sideways in the range, and PP is expected to trade weakly sideways [25] - Soda ash: The supply is in surplus, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and watch [25] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Although the global supply - demand data is loose, the recent domestic cotton sales are fast, and the yarn price is firm, so they are expected to trade strongly sideways [26] - PTA: Affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to rise in a sideways trend, with a focus on the range of 4600 - 4900 [27] - Apples: The inventory is mainly sold as needed, and the price is expected to trade strongly sideways [28] - Red dates: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%, and the price is expected to trade weakly sideways [29] Agricultural and Livestock - Live pigs: In the short term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the long term, the capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. The near - term contracts are for short - selling on rallies, and be cautious about chasing rallies in the far - term contracts [30][31] - Eggs: In the short term, the supply - demand is marginally improved, and the price has support. In the long term, the capacity reduction takes time. The 01 contract has a large premium over the spot, and the price increase is limited [31][32] - Corn: In the short term, there is still selling pressure, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies. In the long term, the cost support is strong, but the supply - demand is relatively loose, and the upward space is limited [33][34] - Soybean meal: It is mainly for range operations, and spot enterprises can fix the basis for December - January [35][36] - Oils: In the short term, the trends of different oils are differentiated. In the long term, they are expected to trade in a wide range. Be cautious about chasing rallies in soybean and palm oils, and pay attention to Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data and the December MPOB report [37][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Various commodities in the futures market show different trends. For example, gold's降息预期回升, and silver is加速冲刺，再创新高. Copper's price is supported by strong spot prices, while zinc has support at the lower level. Lead's price is supported by inventory reduction, and tin's supply is disrupted again [2][6][10]. - The market for some commodities is in a state of wide - range oscillation, such as iron ore, whose downstream demand space is limited and valuation is high;螺纹钢 and热轧卷板 are experiencing a multi - empty game in the market and wide - range oscillations [2][42][45]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: With the recovery of interest - rate cut expectations, the prices of沪金2512 and黄金T+D increased by 1.05% and 1.15% respectively yesterday. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. - **Silver**: It is accelerating and hitting new highs. The prices of沪银2512 and白银T+D rose significantly, with daily increases of 4.46% and 4.72% respectively. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot price is strong, supporting the price. The沪铜主力合约 decreased by 0.40% yesterday. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. The trend intensity is 1 [10][12]. - **Zinc**: There is support at the lower level. The沪锌主力收盘价 increased by 0.69% yesterday. The trend intensity is 1 [13]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports the price. The沪铅主力收盘价 rose by 0.79% yesterday. The trend intensity is 0 [17]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again. The沪锡主力合约 increased by 0.50% yesterday. The trend intensity is 0 [20]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The氧化铝 is still searching for the bottom, and the铸造铝合金 follows the electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [23]. - **Platinum**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [26]. - **Palladium**: The price difference between NYMEX and London has widened, with the possibility of an upward movement. The trend intensity is 0 [27]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals limit the upward elasticity, and it is in a low - level oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. - **Stainless Steel**: With high inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limiting the downward space, it is in an oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Spot trading is weak, and the high - level oscillation continues. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is mainly in a weak operation. The trend intensity is - 1 [39]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in an oscillating market, and attention should be paid to subsequent warrant registration. The trend intensity is 0 [39]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The trend intensity is - 1 [42]. - **Rebar**: There is a multi - empty game in the market, and it is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [45]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: There is a multi - empty game in the market, and it is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [50]. - **Manganese Silicide**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [50]. - **Coke**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [54]. - **Coking Coal**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [54]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the confirmation of the inflection point and conduct range - bound operations for the time being [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it is mainly in an oscillation [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is a lack of new sales, and US soybeans continue to fall, leading to an adjustment in the continuous contract. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating [5]. - **Corn**: It is in an oscillating operation [5]. - **Sugar**: India's sugar production has increased significantly [5]. - **Cotton**: Supply and demand are both strong [5]. - **Egg**: The volume of culling has increased, and the overall sentiment is strong [5]. - **Live Pig**: An increase in supply is coming, and the industrial logic is returning [5]. - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot price [5].

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 3 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 22640 | 22700 | 22720 | 22605 | 195 | 0.87 | 9660 | -1265 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention the industry investment ratings. Core Views - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Accelerating the sprint and reaching a new high [2]. - Copper: Strong spot prices support the price [2]. - Zinc: There is support at the lower level [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [2]. - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2]. - Aluminum: Trading in a range [2]. - Alumina: Continuing to seek the bottom [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Trading in a narrow range [2]. - Palladium: The price difference between NYMEX and London has widened, with potential for an upward movement [2]. - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, and it is trading at a low level [2]. - Stainless steel: High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost factors limit the downside potential [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Silver 2512 increased by 1.05% and 4.46% respectively, and the trading volumes of Comex Gold 2512 and Silver 2512 also increased significantly [4]. - **ETF and Inventory**: The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF increased, and the inventory of Shanghai Gold and Silver decreased [4]. - **Spread and Arbitrage**: The spreads between different gold and silver contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both gold and silver is 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Copper and London Copper decreased slightly, and the trading volume of Shanghai Copper decreased [8]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased, and the inventory of London Copper increased. The spreads between different copper contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [8]. - **Industry News**: The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026, and the copper premium provided by Codelco to US customers has reached a record high [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Zinc and London Zinc increased, and the trading volume of London Zinc increased [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased, and the inventory of London Zinc increased. The spreads between different zinc contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [14]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Lead and London Lead increased, and the trading volume of both increased [15]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead and London Lead decreased. The spreads between different lead contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin increased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The closing price of London Tin decreased slightly [18]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased slightly, and the inventory of London Tin remained unchanged. The spreads between different tin contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy contracts showed different trends, and the trading volumes also changed [21]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots remained unchanged, and the spreads between different contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [21]. - **Industry News**: The market is facing challenges such as power shortages and infrastructure bottlenecks, and the global central banks' interest rate cuts are expected to end next year [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating neutral trends [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of platinum and palladium contracts showed different trends, and the trading volumes also changed [25]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of NYMEX platinum remained unchanged, and the inventory of NYMEX palladium decreased. The spreads between different contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of platinum and palladium are both 0, indicating neutral trends [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Nickel and Stainless Steel contracts increased slightly, and the trading volumes decreased [29]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government has taken a series of measures that may affect the nickel market, and the production of some nickel wet - process projects will be reduced [29][32]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, indicating neutral trends [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities, presenting market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each. It suggests different trading strategies based on the characteristics of each sector, such as short - term trading, long - term investment, and arbitrage opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Tuesday. Major indices and four major stock index futures contracts all fell. There are preparations for commercial real - estate REITs and new regulations on infrastructure REITs. A - share market trading volume decreased, and there was a net capital withdrawal. Short - term strategies include lightly selling December put options and gradually building long - spread positions on dips [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with bond yields generally rising. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and the bond market sentiment was weak. Although there was a net capital withdrawal in the open market, the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. It is recommended to reduce left - side operations, temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the bond - fund redemption fee new regulations. Also, consider the positive - spread strategy for the 2603 contract [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium**: Global central banks' expectations of monetary easing have decreased. Gold weakened, while silver continued to rise due to tight inventory. Platinum was dragged down by gold, and palladium rose due to industrial support. In the long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but there are short - term fluctuations. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [7][9][10] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and related routes' indices declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends. The futures market is expected to be volatile in the short term [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the spot premium stabilized. There are concerns about potential supply shortages, and copper prices are expected to remain high in the long - term. Short - term trading should focus on December interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and pay attention to support levels [12][13][16] - **Alumina**: The visible inventory continued to increase, and the market supply was still abundant. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and the main contract's reference range has shifted downwards [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Driven by both macro and micro factors, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and domestic inventory reduction [19][20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand maintains resilience. The price is expected to have strong short - term performance, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [21][22][24] - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, but the spot trading is dull. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [24][25][27] - **Tin**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, while paying attention to macro changes [27][29][31] - **Nickel**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the upward driving force is limited due to fundamental pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillated slightly higher, but the fundamental pressure has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production - cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [33][34][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is oscillating, and market differences may increase in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, as the market faces issues such as large - scale factory resumption and off - season demand [37][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price opened lower and fell. The supply is expected to exceed demand in December, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market and take profit on put options [40][41][42] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand is poor, and the futures price oscillated downwards. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is estimated [43][44][44] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy can be considered [45][46][47] - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the operating range is given [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The price of domestic coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal stabilized. The futures price rebounded after an oversold situation. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation and consider an inverse - spread strategy [52][53][55] - **Coke**: The first - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the port trading price has declined. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and an inverse - spread strategy is recommended [56][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market lacks guidance, and both domestic and international markets are mainly oscillating. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean - purchasing trends [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price pressure remains, and the month - to - month inverse - spread position can be held. The pig price is expected to oscillate weakly [63][64][64] - **Corn**: The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and the futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply [65][66][66] - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset [67][68][70] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price is oscillating within a range. It is necessary to wait for the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report [70][71][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with a slight increase, but the pressure is still high. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [73][74][74] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm - oil price rose, and the domestic palm - oil price followed suit. The domestic soybean - oil price is oscillating narrowly. Different outlooks and strategies are provided for each [75][76][77] - **Jujubes**: The price in the production area has weakened, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal consumption during the peak season [78][79][79] - **Apples**: The demand for stored apples is average, and the sales are slow. The market situation is relatively stable [80][80][80] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved, and the short - term oil price is strong. The short - term support for PX is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [80][81][81] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The rebound space for PTA is limited. It is recommended to view it as a high - level oscillation and consider a low - level positive - spread strategy [82][83][83] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [84][85][85] - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in December remains loose. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to short the processing fee [86][87][87] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to expected device maintenance, the inventory - building amplitude in December will narrow, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected to oscillate within a range [88][88][88] - **Pure Benzene**: The port inventory is increasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [89][90][90] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the profit has improved, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [91][92][92] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is weak, and the spot price has little change. It is expected to oscillate within a range [93][93][94] - **PP**: There are many unexpected device maintenance events, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [94][94][94] - **Methanol**: The spot price is strong, and the trading is acceptable. It is recommended to short the 05MTO spread [95][95][95] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to run weakly [95][96][96] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price has rebounded, but the supply - demand contradiction has not improved. The price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [98][98][98] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda - ash production has rebounded after a decline, and the futures price is oscillating. The glass sales have declined, and the spot price has fallen. Different strategies are recommended for each [99][100][101] - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price has stopped rising and started to fall, and the rubber price is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [102][104][104] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by butadiene export news, the BR price has risen strongly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 10800 [104][106][106]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions and provides strategy views for various non - ferrous metals. Overall, influenced by factors such as geopolitics, Fed's interest - rate decisions, supply - demand relationships in the industry, and cost factors, different metals show different price trends. Some metals are expected to be strong, some will be in a wide - range shock, and the report gives corresponding trading suggestions and price range references for each metal [5][7][10][12][14][16][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Offshore RMB remained strong, domestic equity markets declined, and copper prices oscillated and corrected. LME copper inventory increased, while domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, and the spot import loss widened. The refined - scrap spread widened [4]. - **Strategy View**: Geopolitical factors still pose headwinds, but the market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate meeting. With an increased probability of interest - rate cuts, sentiment is positive. The copper raw - material supply remains tight, and smelting production - cut expectations drive copper prices higher. Short - term supply is expected to increase marginally. Copper prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range for Shanghai copper's main contract is 88,000 - 89,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 11,000 - 11,300 dollars/ton [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventory changes varied. The spot in the domestic market was at a discount to the futures, and the trading sentiment was weak [6]. - **Strategy View**: Domestic and LME aluminum ingot inventories are in a downward trend, and the inventory levels are relatively low. Coupled with supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the strong performance of copper prices, the center of aluminum price movement is expected to rise further. The operating range for Shanghai aluminum's main contract is 21,760 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,840 - 2,900 dollars/ton [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose. LME lead price increased, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly. The refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 175.01 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead ore increased, the operating rate of primary smelting decreased, and that of secondary smelting increased. Downstream battery enterprises' operating rates increased marginally, and domestic visible lead ingot inventory decreased. After two weeks of decline, lead prices returned to the 17,000 - yuan shock center. Fed's interest - rate cuts make the non - ferrous metal industry sentiment positive, and short - term lead prices are expected to be strong [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose. LME zinc price increased, and domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased. However, the total domestic zinc ingot inventory increased slightly after considering in - transit and factory inventories. The LME zinc monthly spread increased again [11]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of zinc ore increased, but zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, squeezing smelting profits. Downstream operating rates decreased marginally. Although domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly, the overall supply is still in a surplus situation. In the short term, the increase in the LME zinc monthly spread drives zinc prices higher, but in the medium term, zinc prices are expected to show a wide - range shock [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price rose. In October, domestic tin concentrate imports increased significantly, but the conflict in the DRC worsened, affecting tin ore transportation. Yunnan's smelting enterprises still faced raw - material shortages, and Jiangxi's refined tin production remained low. Traditional consumption areas were weak, but emerging areas provided long - term support. After the tin price exceeded 300,000 yuan/ton, the market was reluctant to buy at high prices, and inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy View**: Although the current tin market demand is weak, the downstream inventory is low, and the supply - side disturbances are the determining factor for short - term prices. Short - term tin prices are likely to be in a strong shock. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range for the domestic main contract is 290,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 38,000 - 41,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Spot premiums were stable, nickel ore prices were stable, and the decline in nickel - iron prices slowed down [15]. - **Strategy View**: The surplus pressure of nickel is still large, but with the stabilization of nickel - iron prices and the warming of the macro - environment, short - term nickel prices may turn to a shock. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the trends of nickel - iron and ore prices. The short - term operating range for Shanghai nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate declined, and the LC2605 contract price also decreased. The average battery - grade lithium carbonate premium in the trading market was - 450 yuan [18]. - **Strategy View**: In December, the production schedules of major cathode - material enterprises were mostly flat month - on - month, and domestic lithium carbonate production increased. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease marginally, but there are large differences in medium - and long - term demand expectations. The price is likely to fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or use options. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 93,600 - 99,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the overseas FOB price remained stable. The futures inventory was unchanged, and the ore prices were stable [21]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas ore shipments are expected to recover after the rainy season, and ore prices are expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity surplus situation is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract price rose. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable, raw - material prices were stable, futures inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: On the supply side, steel - mill production schedules are high, and spot arrivals are increasing. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement. However, the high cost of nickel - iron squeezes corporate profits. Although demand has recovered, the inventory pressure from high supply is still significant. The short - term stainless - steel price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast - aluminum alloy price oscillated. The main AD2601 contract price decreased slightly, the weighted contract position rebounded, the trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. The price difference between AL2601 and AD2601 contracts widened, domestic mainstream ADC12 prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast - aluminum alloy is relatively stable, and policy disruptions on the supply side continue. If the inventory continues to decline, the price of cast - aluminum alloy is expected to rise in a shock [28].

【导读】昨夜，特朗普家族的比特币挖矿公司多次触发熔断 隔夜美股三大指数集体收涨，英特尔涨超8%。科技股普遍回暖，而特斯拉遭遇做空。特朗普家族的比特币挖矿公司ABTC暴跌38%。 美股收涨 美联储有大消息 美东时间12月2日（周二），美股三大指数集体收涨。 截至收盘，标普500指数涨0.25%，报6829.37点；纳斯达克综合指数涨0.59%，报23413.67点；道琼斯工业平均指数涨0.39%，报47474.46点。 美联储降息预期持续升温。美国银行全球研究在最新发布的报告中预测，美联储将在12月会议上降息25个基点，理由是美国劳动力市场状况疲弱，且政策 制定者近期的表态暗示将提前降息。 新任主席也有消息传出。特朗普表示，他计划在2026年初公布美联储新任主席的人选。特朗普同日暗示白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈赛特（Kevin Hassett）可能是他的选择。 比特币挖矿公司ABTC暴跌38% 比特币反弹6%，推动概念股回暖，MSTR、BMNR等币圈股一同反弹。而由特朗普家族支持的比特币挖矿公司美国比特币公司股价多次触发熔断。 截至收盘，ABTC下跌超38%。尽管加密市场短暂企稳，但抛售余波不断，特朗普家族涉 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-03 降息预期回温，关注铂低多机会 12⽉2⽇，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为442.5元/克，跌幅2.57%；钯主⼒ 合约收盘价为374.25元/克，跌幅2.23%。 钯观点：现货短缺⽀撑价格，短线维持震荡⾛势 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是钯供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务 部正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布。由 于对俄罗斯钯的制裁预期，市场上大量钯金流向美国，导致其他地区 钯金供应出现阶段性收紧。需求方面，钯金呈现显著的结构性压力。 综合来看，虽然钯长期供需趋松，但短期现货紧缺，叠加美联储再度 进入降息周期，钯价底部具备一定支撑。 展望：现货短缺及宏观环境偏好情况下，底部支撑较强，中长期仍受 自身供需基本面偏弱压制，预计将宽幅震荡。 ⻛险提⽰：全球经济衰退；美联储货币政策变化；俄罗斯地缘冲突变 化；主产区供应扰动。 有⾊与新材料团队 铂观点：降息预期回温，关注低多机会 主要逻辑：受金银回调带动，铂金今日盘面有所下挫。宏观方面，近 期美国公布经济数据偏弱叠加美联储官员鸽派发言，12月降息预期抬 升， ...