Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The light industry sector is experiencing rapid growth driven by the demand for trendy toys, with the Z generation leading new consumption trends. Products like blind boxes tap into deep emotional values. The integration of AI technologies with light manufacturing is expected to stabilize domestic demand and facilitate valuation recovery [2][3] - The recent opening of the first jewelry store by Pop Mart underlines its strategic expansion into the jewelry sector, enhancing its brand image and market presence [11] - The home appliance sector is set to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting consumption, with a focus on the "old for new" initiative, which is expected to stimulate demand further [9] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of June 23-27, 2025, the A-share SW textile and apparel industry index rose by 3.92%, while the light manufacturing industry increased by 3.64%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91% [1] Trendy Toy Sector - Pop Mart was recognized as one of the "100 Most Influential Companies" by Time magazine in 2025, marking a significant achievement for a Chinese trendy toy company. The opening of a flagship store in Hefei is expected to enhance its brand image and attract consumers [3][11] Export Chain - The demand for light industry exports, such as thermos cups and office furniture, remains stable, with expectations that tariff impacts will gradually diminish. Companies with proactive overseas capacity planning are recommended for investment [4][10] Home Appliance Sector - The government is set to release additional funds for the "old for new" consumption initiative in July 2025, which is expected to further stimulate home appliance demand [9] Sports and Outdoor Sector - The sports industry is becoming a significant driver of economic growth, with sustained consumer interest in outdoor apparel. Nike's recent financial performance indicates a recovery trend, particularly in the Chinese market [12][13] Textile Manufacturing - The textile and apparel sector has shown steady growth in both domestic and export markets, with a cumulative export of $116.67 billion from January to May 2025, reflecting a 1% year-on-year increase [14]

Group 1 - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted household appliance sales in Xingtai, with a total of 21,300 units sold from January to May, representing a 13% year-on-year increase, and 95.2% of these sales were from the "old-for-new" program [1] - The local tax authority is leveraging big data to predict sales trends during major holidays and is providing tailored tax solutions to businesses in the appliance sector [1] - The efficient recycling of old appliances is crucial for the success of the "old-for-new" initiative, requiring both government support and active participation from companies [1] Group 2 - The volume of recycled household appliances reached 120,000 units since the May Day holiday, marking a 76% year-on-year increase, driven by the "old-for-new" consumption promotion policy [2] - The company has benefited from tax incentives, including a R&D expense deduction of 1.7491 million yuan and a reduction of 25.2487 million yuan in taxable income from resource utilization, enabling upgrades to production lines and improved energy efficiency [2] - The local tax department is focused on enhancing the recycling industry by identifying eligible companies for tax benefits and providing policy guidance through various communication channels [2]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous value of 49.5%, suggesting a continued recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8% from 51%, while the services business activity index decreased to 50.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The production index and new orders index in manufacturing are both in the expansion zone, with marginal increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points to 51% and 50.2%, respectively [2] Group 2 - The internal demand index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.6%, outpacing the new export orders index, which rose by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7% [2] - High-frequency indicators show that the year-on-year growth rate of foreign trade cargo volume narrowed from -3.8% to -3.5%, indicating a continued weakening in export strength [2] - The PMI data indicates a divergence in performance among enterprises, with large and medium-sized enterprises seeing increases in PMI, while small enterprises experienced a decline to 47.3%, the lowest since September 2024 [3] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector faces downward pressure due to a potential weakening in export chain production as the equipment renewal cycle declines [3] - Recent policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption relending initiative, are expected to support service consumption and infrastructure investment [3] - The PMI improvements in June were more pronounced in industries such as petroleum processing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and chemical manufacturing, while sectors like electrical machinery and textiles saw significant declines [3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, indicating ongoing economic recovery but with increased uncertainty in the economic fundamentals[1] - The production index in June is 51.0%, rising 0.3 percentage points from May, suggesting a return to normal operations in manufacturing[3] - The new orders index is at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, reflecting a moderate recovery in domestic demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is 51.4%, high-tech manufacturing PMI is 50.9%, and consumer goods PMI is 50.4%, all indicating expansion for two consecutive months[1] - The high-energy consumption industry PMI is 47.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, showing improvement in the sector[1] - The strategic emerging industries PMI (EPMI) fell to 47.9%, down 3.1 percentage points from May, indicating a seasonal decline in industry performance[16] Group 3: Market Outlook - The expectation for the second half of the year is a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, supported by a potential easing of US-China trade relations and risk-averse funds[2] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[2] - The overall GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to be around 5%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.7% anticipated for Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively[20]

Group 1 - HSBC reports that China Hongqiao (01378) expects a net profit growth of approximately 35% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, exceeding the bank's previous expectations [1] - The growth is attributed to an increase in both sales prices and volumes of aluminum alloy and alumina products, leading to higher gross margins [1] - HSBC maintains a "Buy" rating on China Hongqiao, raising the target price from HKD 17.10 to HKD 18.50 [1] Group 2 - For the second half of 2025, HSBC believes the aluminum industry's fundamentals remain robust, supported by a production capacity cap of 45 million tons, ongoing "old-for-new" subsidies, strong grid investments, and growth in electric vehicle sales [2] - However, there are concerns about a gradual slowdown in apparent demand growth due to seasonal factors starting from late June [2] - The company may need aluminum prices to continue rising and energy costs to decrease further to achieve profit margin expansion and earnings growth in the second half of 2025, especially after experiencing high alumina prices in Q4 2024 [2]

Group 1: Summer Consumption Promotion Activities - Fujian Province's Commerce Department has launched a vibrant summer consumption season with over 1000 promotional activities focusing on eight key areas including trade-in programs, inbound consumption, foreign trade products, and new energy vehicle consumption [1][4][21] - The government and enterprises will collaborate to create diverse summer consumption scenarios to stimulate consumer spending [1] Group 2: Tax Refund and E-commerce Initiatives - The implementation of the "immediate purchase and refund" policy for outbound tax refunds is underway, with 114 tax refund stores established, including 40 that offer immediate refunds [7] - E-commerce platforms like Taobao and JD.com will host over 30 trade connection events, involving more than 430 foreign trade companies and over 50,000 products [10] Group 3: Culinary and Service Consumption Events - Various culinary events such as "One County One Table Dish" and "Eight Fujian Food Carnival" will be organized, along with the distribution of 40 million yuan in dining consumption vouchers [12] - A series of service consumption activities will focus on sectors like dining, accommodation, and tourism, promoting integrated development of commerce, tourism, and culture [14] Group 4: Consumer Guides and Night Economy - Regular consumer guides will be released, and local areas are encouraged to create "night consumption maps" to enhance the night economy [16] - Summer activities will include events like summer fun, cooling retreats, and beer festivals to attract consumers [16]

Group 1 - The "618" shopping festival in 2025 started a week earlier than in 2024, leading to significant sales growth driven by government subsidies [3][5] - Total online retail sales during the "618" period reached nearly 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.8% [3] - Major platforms like Taobao Tmall, JD, Douyin, and Pinduoduo saw year-on-year sales growth of 4%, 17%, and 15% respectively [3] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has led to a surge in sales of home appliances and 3C digital products, with 113 brands achieving sales exceeding 100 million yuan [5] - An estimated 150 billion yuan of "old-for-new" funds were utilized from January to May, with additional central funds expected to be released in July and October [5] - The total "old-for-new" funds for the second half of the year are projected to be around 138 billion yuan, averaging 23 billion yuan per month [5] Group 3 - The proportion of second-hand housing sales in major cities has been increasing, with some cities reaching nearly 70% [8] - In June, the proportion of second-hand housing transactions was 58.2%, a 10 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year [8] Group 4 - Recent tensions between Iran and Israel have impacted global oil prices, which saw a rise before a drop after June 20 [9] - Historically, a 10% increase in international oil prices has a direct impact of approximately 0.08 percentage points on domestic CPI and 0.5 percentage points on PPI [9]

行 业 及 产 业 家用电器/ 小家电 2025 年 06 月 27 日 清洁电器 618 受益以旧换新表现亮 眼，高性价比机型仍为首选 看好 ——清洁电器 618 数据解读 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 行 业 研 究 / 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 联系人 程恺雯 (8621)23297818× chengkw@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：政策落地不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险；汇率波动风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 清洁电器 618 表现亮眼，受益国补以旧换新。根据奥维云网数据，清洁电器在家电各 品类中 618 销售表现亮眼，扫地机等主要品类实现销额双位数增长，2025 年 5 月 12 日至 6 月 22 日（W20-W25）扫地机线上销额达到 33 亿元，同比+27%，销量 96.7 万台，同比+35%，均价 3415 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data in China, highlighting the growth in consumer spending supported by policies like "trade-in for new" and the stabilization of the real estate market. It raises questions about sustaining this growth amid potential pressures from declining export growth and real estate price fluctuations. Group 1: Consumer Spending - In May, China's total retail sales reached 41,326 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with accelerated growth in consumer goods, particularly in home appliances and mobile phones, driven by the "trade-in for new" policy [1][3] - The "trade-in for new" policy has significantly supported consumption, contributing 1.3 percentage points to the retail sales growth in the first five months of the year [4] - The internal growth momentum for consumer spending has improved due to a decrease in unemployment rates and an increase in disposable income [4][5] Group 2: Economic Growth Forecast - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter is expected to be around 5.3%-5.4%, with retail sales growth also projected at approximately 5.4% [6] - However, there are concerns that internal consumption growth may face pressures from declining export growth and fluctuations in real estate prices in the second half of the year [6] Group 3: Export and Trade - China's total import and export value in the first five months was 17.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US declined [8] - The diversification of export destinations has effectively mitigated geopolitical risks, with ASEAN becoming China's largest export market [8][9] Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, with new housing sales showing significant variation across cities. First-tier cities have shown resilience, while second-hand housing prices continue to decline [12][15] - Policies aimed at increasing the supply of quality housing are seen as crucial for stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations for further relaxation of restrictive policies in major cities [15]

黑色建材日报 2025-06-27 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 2973 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.10%）。当日注册仓单 18221 吨, 环比持平。主力合约持仓量为 219.1778 万手，环比增加 19178 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3060 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收 盘价为 3103 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 5 元/吨（0.161%）。 当日注册仓单 70514 吨, 环比减少 1779 吨。主 力合约持仓量为 151.0669 万手，环比增加 26 ...