Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - On the futures and spot market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,467 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day), and the basis of EG East China spot (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month-on-month). On Tuesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and rose at a low level, with average on-site discussions and a slight increase in the basis [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$43/ton (down $9/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 84 yuan/ton (down 83 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (down 12,000 tons month-on-month); according to data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 475,000 tons (down 19,000 tons month-on-month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the weekly port inventory decreased slightly. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals. Attention should be paid to the actual arrivals [1]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply-demand logic, on the supply side, domestically, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO-EG co-production plants in non-coal areas have plans to switch from EO to EG, and the overall load is moderately high. Overseas, the Sharq series of plants in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and in an ideal state, the supply of ocean freight will gradually return to normal, with an expected increase in imports. On the demand side, due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August. Overall, there will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels in late July, and there is pressure on the fundamentals to weaken in August under high supply [2]. - For the strategy, the unilateral strategy is neutral. Attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment, especially the changes in the Sino-US tariff policy negotiation from July 27th to July 30th and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. There are no cross-period or cross-variety strategies [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,467 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day), and the basis of EG East China spot (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$43/ton (down $9/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 84 yuan/ton (down 83 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. International Spread - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (down 12,000 tons month-on-month); according to data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 475,000 tons (down 19,000 tons month-on-month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the weekly port inventory decreased slightly. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals. Attention should be paid to the actual arrivals [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in July 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 3.36 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 9.79% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased by 11.85% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The construction, modification, and road modification asphalt, as well as the waterproofing membrane, all have low and mostly decreasing or flat - lined operating rates [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 847.0529 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. As crude oil prices strengthen, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - Regarding the basis, on July 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3775 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 177 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory is increasing, while factory and port inventories are decreasing [8]. - For the market, the MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - Overall, it is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term. The asphalt 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3598 - 3640 [8]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.9204%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points month - on - month. The sample enterprise output was 516000 tons, a decrease of 9.79% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices was 642000 tons, an increase of 11.85% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of various types of asphalt and related products are lower than the historical average, indicating that the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 847.0529 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. As crude oil prices strengthen, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On July 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3775 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 177 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1352000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%. Factory inventory is 723000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%. Port diluted asphalt inventory is 16000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.80%. Social inventory is accumulating, while factory and port inventories are decreasing [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term. The asphalt 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3598 - 3640 [8]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and inventory data of multiple asphalt contracts, as well as the price and change data of different types of asphalt in various regions, and the profit data of asphalt processing and delayed coking [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [38][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [53][54]. - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly operating rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [58][59]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents the historical trends of the total, social, and factory warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [61][62][64]. - **Social and Factory Inventories**: The report shows the historical trends of the social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [65][66]. - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: The report presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [68][69]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [71][72]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [77][78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment in Highway Construction**: The report presents the historical trend of transportation fixed - asset investment in highway construction from 2020 to 2025 [83][84]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year completion rate of infrastructure investment from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2020 to 2025 [87][88][90]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report presents the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [92][93]. - **Categorized Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the construction, modification, and other types of asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [95]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96][97][99]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [101][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 29, polysilicon prices stopped falling and rebounded. The main 2509 contract closed at 50,805 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.76%. The N-type recycled polysilicon material price rose to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also reached 46,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 4,245 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a strong oscillation. The main 2509 contract closed at 9,350 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.35%. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,570 yuan/ton, down 277 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 255 yuan/ton. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology re - emphasized consolidating the comprehensive governance results against excessive competition, highlighting the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics to force out backward production capacity through standard improvement. Polysilicon was boosted by the news and regained momentum. Industrial silicon was driven up by polysilicon and showed a strong performance. Currently, policies still support the market, but after the pre - speculative demand was realized, market sentiment cooled down, and there is insufficient momentum to reach new highs. After the exchange adjusted margins and handling fees, heavy - position chasing and killing should be avoided. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse spread space and PS/SI ratio arbitrage, as well as the resumption of production in the southwest region and policy progress [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,085 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,995 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions declined. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 20 yuan to 255 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 31 to 50,082, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3,415 tons to 248,550 tons. Other port and factory inventories remained stable [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 50,805 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 1,340 yuan/ton to 50,745 yuan/ton. All spot prices increased, with the N - type granular silicon material rising by 10,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose by 2,000 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 660 yuan to 4,245 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 to 3,070, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 9.06 tons. The factory and social inventories remained unchanged [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained at 12,500 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: Data on silicon wafers and battery cells were not available. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, as well as the prices of silicon stone, refined coal, and electricity [5][7][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][16]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [19][22]. 3.2.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC and polysilicon [25][27][31]. 4. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media [33]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [33]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 174, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract have decreased [3] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9030, with a basis of 60, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [5] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the palm oil main contract have increased [5] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [5] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 108, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [6] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [6] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the rapeseed oil main contract have decreased [6] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production cut season [7] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7] Supply - The report mentions the supply aspects of imported soybean inventory [8], soybean oil inventory [10], soybean meal inventory [12], oil mill soybean crushing [14], palm oil inventory [19], rapeseed oil inventory [22], rapeseed inventory [24], and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [26] Demand - The report mentions the apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This week features several major macro - events including the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the implementation of US copper tariffs. Uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs exist. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will pressure both SHFE and LME copper prices. Copper prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish due to seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports despite tight raw material supply [1]. - Domestic black commodities have stabilized and rebounded. The market sentiment in the US and Europe is positive as they are close to reaching an agreement. Aluminum prices are likely to be range - bound and slightly bearish as low domestic aluminum ingot inventories support prices, but weak downstream demand and reduced export demand limit price rebounds [3]. - The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightening with a slight decline in primary lead production and a low - level increase in recycled lead production. With the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, downstream demand is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on lead smelters expands, both single - side prices and spreads may strengthen [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as domestic zinc ore supply remains abundant, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase significantly, and inventories are rising. In the short - term, the Fed's interest - rate decision is awaited, and there are still structural risks in the overseas LME zinc market [6]. - Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term. Although the supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end currently faces raw material supply pressure. Domestic demand is in the off - season, while overseas demand is driven by AI computing power. Tin prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish [7]. - The short - term macro - environment has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and speculative inventory may be released, driving the price of nickel and related products down. The price of nickel ore is expected to continue to decline [8]. - The short - term fundamental improvement of lithium carbonate depends on the passive reduction of ore supply. Although there are frequent news disturbances, it is difficult to return to previous lows. The price may rebound today due to a positive commodity market atmosphere last night. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [10]. - The over - capacity situation of alumina may be difficult to change. Although the short - term sentiment for going long on commodities has declined, the number of registered warehouse receipts is still low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - Stainless steel mills are firm in their short - term price - support policies, limiting the decline of spot prices. However, considering the planned increase in stainless steel production in August and potential insufficient terminal demand, the market needs to focus on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although there is cost support, the large difference between futures and spot prices creates upward pressure on prices [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 0.41% at $9803/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79090 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 225 tons to 127625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 18,000 tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic copper spot import loss was about 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed down 0.95% at $2606/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20620 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 45.6 million tons, and domestic three - region aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.55 million tons to 38.2 million tons [3]. - **Market**: The processing fee for aluminum rods continued to rise, and the market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.07% at 16903 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $3 to $2016/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 6.09 million tons, and LME lead inventory was 26.37 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The price difference between refined and scrap lead was 25 yuan/ton, and domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 6.48 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.06% at 22651 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell $16.5 to $2806/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1.53 million tons, and domestic social inventory continued to increase to 10.37 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The TC index of imported zinc concentrates increased significantly, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase [6]. Tin - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 266660 yuan/ton, down 0.46% [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 260 tons to 7529 tons, and LME inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons [7]. - **Market**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end currently faces raw material pressure [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel ore prices were weakly stable, and high - nickel ferro - nickel prices were stable [8]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [8]. - **Market**: The short - term macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: On July 30, the MMLC index for lithium carbonate closed at 71,832 yuan, down 4.01%. The LC2509 contract closed at 70,840 yuan, down 3.12% [10]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [10]. - **Market**: The short - term fundamental improvement depends on the reduction of ore supply, and the price may rebound today [10]. Alumina - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.79% to 3290 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts were 0.42 million tons, down 0.48 million tons from the previous day [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity situation may be difficult to change, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12920 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.62% [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory was 103599 tons, down 6973 tons from the previous day, and social inventory decreased to 111.86 million tons [15]. - **Market**: Mills are firm in price - support policies, but attention should be paid to downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract slightly fell to 20020 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - region recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory slightly increased to 3.09 million tons [17]. - **Market**: The off - season situation persists, with weak supply and demand [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is generally in an adjustment phase, following the profit - taking adjustment of domestic anti - involution stocks. The overall non - ferrous metals market continues to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the changes in the manufacturing industry and the lagged impact of tariff increases after the trade situation becomes clear [12]. - The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, which may boost the US dollar in the short term. The progress of China - US trade negotiations also needs to be closely monitored [12]. - The domestic policy benefits have led to a rotational upward movement in the industrial product sector, but the sustainability and intensity of the spillover effect are average, and the impact during adjustments is also limited. Future attention should be paid to specific policies and their implementation [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations for Non - Ferrous Metals 3.1.1 Macro Logic - The non - ferrous metals sector is adjusting, and the varieties that had a relatively obvious weekly rebound last week are also those with relatively large adjustment amplitudes. The market continues to focus on China's future policy direction and the progress of China - US trade negotiations [12]. - The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, covering 15% of EU goods exported to the US. The US has reached agreements with important trading partners, which may boost the US dollar in the short term [12]. 3.1.2 Investment Recommendations for Different Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX copper premium over LME copper may decline. Although the "siphon effect" in the US market has ended, the non - US market inventory is low. The domestic copper market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and strong demand, but the short - term upward drive for copper prices is lacking. It is recommended to sell near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc follows the adjustment. The supply of zinc ingots is increasing, and the demand shows mixed trends. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The market sentiment has declined. For electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach and buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [6]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals of tin are weak in both supply and demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach and pay attention to the situation of the ore end and macro - impacts. Buying out - of - the money put options is also suggested [7]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a consolidation phase. The social inventory is rising, but the demand is recovering. It is recommended to go long on dips and use a wide - range option straddle strategy [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The overall supply of refined nickel is in surplus. Nickel and stainless steel are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies for nickel and take a short - selling approach within the range for stainless steel [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are presented, including copper (- 0.32% to 79000), zinc (- 1.05% to 22645), aluminum (- 0.70% to 20615), etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Information on the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is provided, including the percentage change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for each variety such as Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Gold, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, such as the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price (- 0.48% to 79260 yuan/ton), the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot average price (- 0.57% to 22630 yuan/ton), etc. [20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each metal (copper, zinc, aluminum, etc.), relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to the arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, the Shanghai zinc - Shanghai lead price difference, etc. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the options of various non - ferrous metals are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic near - month soybean purchases are mostly covered, and soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle. The near - month basis is expected to remain under pressure. M09 is expected to be range - bound, and for M01, it is recommended to buy on dips based on the expected increase in import costs. Attention should be paid to China - US policies [8] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian on July 25 was 19, - 81 in Tianjin, - 161 in both Rizhao and Zhangjiagang, - 141 in Dongguan, - 121 in both Zhanjiang and Fangcheng. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 155, with a decrease of - 103 [6] 3.2 Spread Data - M9 - 1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and盘面 spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong are presented, with specific values such as M9 - RM9 being - 4 and the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong being 346 [6][7] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The USD - CNY exchange rate was 104.00 with no change. There are data on Brazilian soybean CNF premiums, Chinese port soybean inventories, national major oil mills' soybean inventories, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventories, etc. [7] 3.4 Supply, Demand and Inventory Situation - Supply: This week, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 68%. In the next two weeks, Kansas is expected to be dry, which may be unfavorable for soybean growth, but other areas have normal weather, generally conducive to soybean growth. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal stockpiling is expected to last until September; the shipping in China from October to January is slow [7] - Demand: The short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming is expected to support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, and soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance. The pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal is normal [8] - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventories have reached a high level, soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8]

Core Insights - The palm oil market has experienced a sudden downturn after three consecutive weeks of price increases, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 1 - The market anticipates a recovery in palm oil production in the third quarter, which is influencing current price trends [1] - July palm oil inventory levels are expected to rise, contributing to the market's bearish sentiment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity continue to boost the propylene and polyolefin markets. The elimination of backward production capacity in the propylene industry is expected to shift the domestic propylene market from an oversupply to a tight - balance situation. However, the current overall propylene operating rate is at a seasonally low level, and downstream demand has limited driving force. For polyolefins, although macro policies boost the market, the cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand remains weak during the seasonal off - season [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene 3.1.1 Propylene Basis Structure - It includes the market prices of propylene in East China and Shandong [10][12] 3.1.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate [13][18][22] 3.1.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Covers propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate, and the differences between FOB in South Korea, CFR in Japan, and CFR in Southeast Asia and China CFR, as well as propylene import profit [25][28][33] 3.1.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Includes the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [35][40][42] 3.1.5 Propylene Inventory - Comprises propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [59][61] 3.2 Polyolefins 3.2.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - Involves the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, and the basis between LL in East China and the main contract, and PP in East China and the main contract [63][64][70] 3.2.2 Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers LL production profit from crude oil, PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit from crude oil and PDH, PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [71][72][77] 3.2.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Includes the price differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and the price differences between PP low - melt copolymer and PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China [84][91][92] 3.2.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Involves LL import profit, the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FD in Europe and China CFR, PP import and export profit, and the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FOB in Northwest Europe of PP homopolymer injection molding and China CFR [93][97][109] 3.2.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Profit - Includes the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, and the production gross profits of PP downstream woven bags and BOPP film [117][120][127] 3.2.6 Polyolefin Inventory - Comprises the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [133][134][136]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心继续下移，其中 WTI 新换 9 月合约收盘下跌 0.06 美 | | | | 元至 65.25 美元/桶，跌幅 0.09%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘下跌 0.08 | | | | 美元至 68.51 美元/桶，跌幅 0.12%。SC2509 以 506 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 2.1 元/桶，涨幅为 0.42%。美国能源部长表示将考虑制裁俄罗 | | | | 斯石油以结束俄乌冲突。美国总统特朗普在早些时候表示，如果 | | | | 莫斯科不同意与乌克兰达成一项重要的和平协议，华盛顿可能会 | | | | 对俄罗斯石油的买家征收 100%的关税，并实施其他制裁措施。这 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 对俄罗斯无疑是巨大的压力，但目前特朗普政府尚未对俄罗斯实 | | | | 施重大石油制裁。关税方面，最新美国总统特朗普表示，将对世 | 偏弱 | | | 界其他大部分国家征收 15%至 50%的简单关税。EIA 报告，截至 ...