Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is volatile consolidation, while rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs are expected to have short - term rebounds. However, the long - term outlook for live pigs is still bearish, with prices likely to grind at the bottom under pressure [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - From the CPC monthly outlook, the soybean planting weather in the US in July is generally favorable, and the South American harvest is basically settled. In China, ports and oil mills are in the inventory accumulation phase, and feed enterprises' inventory replenishment has recovered significantly. The June USDA report is neutral, with a slight decrease in US soybean planting area and limited impact on production reduction. The market fluctuates around the fundamentals, and it is expected to oscillate below the 10 - day moving average in 3 - 5 days. The main contract range is [2920, 2970] [1][4]. - The latest futures price of the main contract is 2944 yuan/ton, down 0.57% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2922.86 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 207.6608 yuan/ton, down 2.57 yuan from the previous day [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Currently, the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills is not under pressure, but the high commercial rapeseed meal inventory is bearish for the July contract. From June to August, rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. Canada's June rapeseed planting area is lower than expected, but the termination of US - Canada trade negotiations is a greater negative factor. Short - selling should be cautious due to low imports and high tariffs. The main contract range is [2550, 2600] [1][5]. - As of July 1, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions decreased by 1.41 tons from the previous week. In the domestic market, the oversupply of soybean meal has squeezed the market share of rapeseed meal [5]. Palm Oil - China's palm oil commercial inventory is low, and imports have improved but are still lower than last year in the second half. The Southeast Asian palm oil inventory accumulation cycle has started, with a downward - moving oscillation center. However, India's good import prospects in June, the reduction of import tariffs since May 30, and the promotion of the B20 policy are positive factors. Before the US biodiesel policy is determined, short - selling is cautious. It is expected to remain below the previous high this week. The main contract range is [8360, 8530] [1][8]. - As of June 27, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory increased by 23.57% week - on - week and 25.67% year - on - year. Malaysia's June palm oil exports increased by 4.52% month - on - month, and India's June palm oil imports surged 61% month - on - month [7]. Cotton - In the international market, the sowing in the US main cotton - producing areas is nearly finished, with an improvement in the excellent - good rate and drought conditions. The USDA's planting intention is higher than expected, and the ICE market is expected to be weak in the short term. In China, new cotton is growing well, and the actual sown area is 5% higher than expected. The high - temperature impact in Xinjiang is limited and is gradually easing. The de - stocking of domestic cotton is fast, but downstream orders are weak after a short - term rebound. The futures price is expected to rebound under pressure in the short term. The main contract range is [13750, 13900] [1][12]. - The main contract CF2509 closed at 13805 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The domestic spot price dropped 0.33% to 15160 yuan/ton. The US cotton sowing progress is 95%, with a planting area of 1010 million acres, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and an excellent - good rate of 51%. India's sown area increased 7% year - on - year [10]. Jujube - The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and the actual fruit - setting situation in the producing areas shows no obvious signs of significant yield reduction. The old - crop inventory is at a historical high, and the inventory de - stocking is slow. The demand is expected to weaken in the quarter, with no obvious increase recently. The short - term futures price is expected to rebound under pressure, and attention should be paid to the potential fluctuations in the second - half of the month due to the final yield determination. The main contract range is [10850, 11450] [1][14]. - The main contract CJ2601 closed at 11055 yuan/ton, up 1.98%. The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 8 tons week - on - week and is higher than the same period last year [14]. Live Pigs - The short - term rebound is due to the出栏 rhythm of leading enterprises and the entry of second - fattening, which has temporarily alleviated the supply pressure. However, the production capacity has not been cleared, and the price increase may not be sustainable. In the long run, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is likely to grind at the bottom under pressure. It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy of short - selling on rallies for 2025 contracts. The main contract range is [14200, 14500] [1][17]. - The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14340 yuan/ton, up 3.20%. The domestic live pig spot price increased 0.07% to 15090 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased, and the inventory of breeding sows in May was 4042 million, a 0.1% month - on - month increase [16].

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-03 市场矛盾有限，现货价格保持平稳 市场分析 1、7月2日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3571元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨5元/吨，涨幅0.14%； 持仓227295手，环比上周439手，成交152378手，环比下降3466手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3620—4070元/吨；华南，3600—3750元/吨； 华东，3650—3800元/吨。 昨日华北市场沥青现货价格窄幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳，沥青盘面则延续窄幅震荡态势。就沥青 自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。原油价格大幅回落后，炼厂生产成本有所修复，炼厂 生产积极性增强，另外部分企业消费税抵扣比例上调有利于提高开工负荷，但整体增量不多，当前供应压力有限。 与此同时，天气与资金因素制约下，沥青刚性需求表现也一般，情绪仍较为谨慎，市场驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-03 养殖端缩量挺价，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14340元/吨，较前交易日变动+475.00元/吨，幅度+3.43%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格15.34元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.19元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+1000，较前交易日变动-285；江 苏地区外三元生猪价格 15.54元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.16元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1200，较前交易日变动-315； 四川地区外三元生猪价格14.68元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.23元/公斤，现货基差LH09+340，较前交易日变动-245。 据农业农村部监测，7月2日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.38，比昨天下降0.01个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为112.37，与昨天持平。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.54元/公斤，比昨天上升1.7%；牛肉63.64元/公斤， 比昨天上升0.3%；羊肉59.73元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；鸡蛋7.10元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；白条鸡17.10元/公斤， 比昨天下降0.1%。 市场分析 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-03 海外装置运行不稳，EG震荡上涨 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4299元/吨（较前一交易日变动+26元/吨，幅度+0.61%），EG华东市场现货价 4360元/吨（较前一交易日变动+32元/吨，幅度+0.74%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）74元/吨（环比+5元/ 吨）。沙特装置因电力因素大面积短停，同时马来西亚一套75万吨/年的乙二醇装置上游裂解因故停车，乙二醇装置 运行稳定性欠佳，海外产量恢复不如预期，EG价格震荡上行。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-79美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为2元/吨（环比-7 元/吨）。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，短期供需结构依旧表现良性去库，但是仓单陆续注销流出 后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，近期海外装置逐步重启，供应预期宽松，7月初外轮到货集中。 需求端现实坚挺，但几家瓶片大厂7月初检修计划集中，需求预期偏弱，关注实际兑现情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，地缘变化超预期 2 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 受资金情绪及消息面影响，碳酸锂盘面偏强运行 市场分析 2025年7月2日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于62800元/吨，收于63960元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨3.19%。当 日成交量为540435手，持仓量为325574手，较前一交易日减少1102手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳2310 元/吨。所有合约总持仓589634手，较前一交易日减少2761手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加167850手，成 交量652707，整体投机度为1.11。当日碳酸锂仓单23180手，较上个交易日增加240手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年7月2日电池级碳酸锂报价6.09-6.24万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.955-6.055万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心呈现震荡上行。 根据SMM调研，当前市场呈现\"上游挺价、下游压价\"的博弈格局：冶炼厂报价维持高位，但下游正极材料厂采购 仍以刚需为主，市场整体成交清淡。不过部分刚性需求订单仍支撑价格小幅上行，现货价格重心有所抬升。供需 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/07/03 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed hope that China can accelerate rare ...

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-07-03 苯乙烯港口延续累库，继续弱势盘整 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存17.70万吨（+0.60万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费161美元/吨（-5美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费142美元/吨（-7美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差88.7美元/吨（+9.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-95元/吨（-25元/ 吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差313元/吨（-87元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润146元/吨（-22元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存98800吨（+13800吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存31300吨（-35000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率80.1%（+1.1%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润151元/吨（+49元/吨），PS生产利润-249元/吨（+49元/吨），ABS生产利润476元/吨（+97 元/吨）。EPS开工率59.72%（+6.09%），PS开工率57.40%（-1.30%），ABS开工率66.00%（+2.03%），下游开工季节 性低位。 策略 谨慎逢高做空套保 EB-BZ逢高做缩 风险 油价大幅波动，伊朗地缘 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-03 PX仍偏强，PTA基差快速下行 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 147 元/吨(环比变动-28元/吨），PTA现货加工费305元/吨（环比变动-18元/吨），主 力合约盘面加工费357元/吨（环比变动-29元/吨），当前PTA自身基本面中性，关注成本和需求支撑。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.4%（环比-0.6%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工呈现下滑趋势，但聚酯表现相对良 性，负荷表现坚挺, 短期长丝负荷预计还能维持,继续关注聚酯库存变化；短纤库存不高，虽然也有减产消息，但 实际执行力度存疑；瓶片方面，华润6.22检修20%已执行，万凯逸盛计划7月初开始检修，还涉及产能170万吨，7 月聚酯负荷预计下降至89%~90%，关注实际兑现情况。 PF方面，现货生产利润179元/吨（环比+16元/吨）。短纤现货偏紧、库存不高，PF自身基本面尚可，但下游对原料 高价位接受能力有限，大多刚需采购为主，，但需求走弱预期，关注成本端支撑。 PR方面，瓶片现货加工费327元/吨(环比变动-6元/吨)，随着海运费局部略松动，部分海外客户适量补货，聚酯瓶 片工厂库存小幅下降；负荷方面，华润常州和 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for the plastic in the polyolefin market, the unilateral strategy suggests being cautiously bearish [3]. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic factors have boosted the sentiment in the polyolefin market, leading to a slight increase in polyolefin prices. The sharp decline in international oil and propane prices has weakened the cost - side support for polyolefins. The return of previously shut - down and overhauled plants and the commissioning of new production capacity have slightly increased the supply. Although petrochemical plants are about to enter the traditional maintenance season and future maintenance of existing plants will be intensive, it can only relieve some of the pressure from new supply. Upstream inventory is being depleted, but the inventory reduction of middle - stream traders is slow. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season, with limited demand improvement, and the willingness of downstream buyers to replenish inventory is low [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7288元/吨（+39），PP主力合约收盘价为7072元/吨（+28）；LL华北现货为7170元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0）；LL华北基差为 - 118元/吨（-59），LL华东基差为12元/吨（-39），PP华东基差为48元/吨（-28） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为76.4%（-2.3%），PP开工率为79.3%（-0.3%）；PE油制生产利润为366.9元/吨（-11.7），PP油制生产利润为 - 53.1元/吨（-11.7），PDH制PP生产利润为253.7元/吨（-41.2） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The report does not provide specific content for this part. 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 98.4元/吨（-50.2），PP进口利润为 - 537.0元/吨（-60.2），PP出口利润为28.2美元/吨（+7.4） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（+0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.0%（-1.2%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.2%（-0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report mentions that upstream inventory is being depleted, while the inventory reduction of middle - stream traders is slow, but no specific inventory data is provided [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating [8] Core Views - Steel: The market has strong speculative sentiment, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. Steel is entering the off - season, with no obvious changes in fundamentals and slightly better de - stocking than seasonal expectations. The inventory of rebar is gradually decreasing, and the plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand. Steel exports are resilient due to price advantages, and the price is oscillating at the bottom [1]. - Iron Ore: Affected by market sentiment, the price is oscillating upwards. The overall supply is increasing, and iron ore consumption is resilient. In the short term, the price has rebounded, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market sentiment is positive, and the prices are rebounding. For coke, after multiple price cuts, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is affected, and the inventory pressure is shifting to steel mills. For coking coal, environmental supervision and low - level imports provide price support, and the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: With the increase in downstream demand, the price is oscillating upwards. Some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and as the temperature rises, demand is expected to strengthen. In the long term, the supply is still abundant [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The rebar futures contract closed at 3065 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. The market speculative atmosphere is strong, and the futures trading volume has increased. The spot price has risen, and the national building materials trading volume was 12500 tons yesterday [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Commodity futures are generally rising, and steel is entering the off - season. The fundamentals are stable, and de - stocking is slightly better than expected. Rebar inventory is decreasing, and the plate has strong supply and demand. Steel exports are resilient, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and demand changes in the off - season [1]. - Strategy: Neutral for single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Affected by market sentiment, the futures price is oscillating upwards. The price of imported iron ore has risen slightly, and the trading volume of main ports was 1.06 million tons yesterday, a 0.19% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of forward - looking spot was 1.03 million tons, a 33.12% decrease [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The arrival volume has decreased, but the overall supply is increasing. Iron ore consumption is resilient. In the short term, the price has rebounded, and the basis discount has been repaired. In the long term, the supply - demand is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the iron - making water production in the off - season and industrial policies [3]. - Strategy: Oscillating for single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coking coal and coke are oscillating upwards. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1442 yuan/ton, a 3.15% increase; the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 843.5 yuan/ton, a 3.18% increase. The trading atmosphere of imported coal has warmed up [5]. - Logic and Views: For coke, after price cuts, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is affected, and the inventory pressure is shifting to steel mills. For coking coal, environmental supervision and low - level imports provide price support, and the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The price is rebounding due to improved market sentiment [6]. - Strategy: Oscillating for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and the supply and output have increased. With the increase in high - temperature days, traders' bullish sentiment may persist, and some stocking demand will be released. The price in the production area fluctuates within 5 - 10 yuan. At ports, the inventory is decreasing slightly, the market sentiment is positive, and the transaction price has increased, but high - price transactions are limited. The imported coal market is stable, with high - cost - performance of medium - and low - calorie coal, and active domestic bidding and restocking [8]. - Demand and Logic: In July, some coal mines have resumed production, and as the temperature rises, demand is expected to strengthen. In the short term, the price is rising slightly. In the long term, the supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. - Strategy: No specific strategy [8]