Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the spot and futures markets, the closing price of the EG main contract was 3994 yuan/ton (a change of -3 yuan/ton, or -0.08% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3885 yuan/ton (a change of +93 yuan/ton, or +2.45% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -120 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of -2 yuan/ton) [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production gross profit of ethylene-based EG was -40 US dollars/ton (a month-on-month increase of +20 US dollars/ton), and the production gross profit of coal-based syngas EG was -752 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of +114 yuan/ton) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China for MEG was 85.8 tons (a month-on-month increase of 6.3 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (a month-on-month increase of 2.8 tons). The total planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is relatively high, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - The overall supply and demand logic of the fundamentals shows that on the domestic supply side, the extrusion of the syngas production load is not obvious, and the domestic ethylene glycol load is at a high level. There is still great pressure to accumulate inventory under high supply and weakening demand from January to February. Overseas, the import pressure will ease after the end of February, but it remains high from January to February, and there will be a slight reduction in inventory in March. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans are gradually being implemented in mid-January, and the support of rigid demand is weakening [2]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Short-term funds are flowing into the chemical products sector. Be cautiously bullish, but the fundamentals of EG are still weak, and prices may fluctuate significantly. Pay attention to the relative changes in the valuations of various ethylene downstream products after the price increase [3]. - Inter - period: Reverse arbitrage between EG2603 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3]. 4. Directory Summaries Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3994 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3885 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China was -120 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production gross profit of ethylene-based EG was -40 US dollars/ton, and the production gross profit of coal-based syngas EG was -752 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread - The international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) is presented, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The Spring Festival maintenance plans in mid - January are gradually being implemented, and the weaving load and polyester load are accelerating their decline, and the support of rigid demand is weakening [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China for MEG was 85.8 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons. The total planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is relatively high, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 点评 26 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8915/吨，日内涨幅 0.96%，持仓 增仓 20873 手至 25.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一 交易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水转至贴水 65 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 51280 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.19%，持仓减仓 4 手至 41287 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格跌至 54000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格 54000 元/吨，现货升水收至 2720 元/ 吨。四川地区全面停炉，云南因长协保留低负荷后续也面临减产，新疆 大厂规划月底减产 50%，供应端预期缩量下盘面逐渐向上修复，高低品 供应量劈叉。高盛最新预测 2026 年多晶硅将回落至 42 元/kg，硅料厂家 减产规模继续扩张，出口退税窗口前形成的抢出口动作将提前透支需 求，同时行业高库存稀释补库强度。节奏上现货报价逐渐失去支撑，盘 面近月支撑远月承压。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 27 日 【趋势强度】 纸浆趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看 空，2 表示最看多。 纸浆：震荡运行 20260127 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.374 | 5, 398 | -24 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5. 372 | 5. 346 | +26 | | | | 成交量(手) | 386. 750 | 269. 463 | +117, 287 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量(手) | 271.396 | 260, 129 | +11, 267 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 139.554 | 139.554 | 0 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -17, 257 | -29, 400 | +12. 143 | | 价差数据 | ...

| | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 24215 | -75 | 125 | 2370 | 3125 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 24380 | ー | ー | ー | ー | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3196 | 22 | 30 | 313 | 413 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 510890 | 82824 | 86203 | 268966 | 351167 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 322087 | -18488 | -15010 | 33254 | 118807 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 24952 | -3502 | 7193 | 2823 | -13327 | | | | LME注销仓单占比 | 4. 55% | -0. 34% | -2. 20% | -8. 34% | -16. 12% | | | | LME铝cash-3M价差 | -3. 75 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，上游报价挺涨 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6935 | 1.02% | 683322 | -4043 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -155 | | -165 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -27 | | -22 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6780 | | 6700 | | | | 东 华 | 6850 | | 6750 | | | | 华 南 | 6930 | | 6850 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货走强，上游前期库存转移，企业报价企稳反弹，中游开单有部分改善。标品排产昨日维持，成交有 所改善，基差走弱。下游制品利润压缩，有所抵触高价。外盘报价上涨且 LL 货源偏少，远期进口 ...

陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 2026 年 1 月 27 日 LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 丙烯：需求支撑坚挺，现货强势走高 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG | 2602 | 4,364 | 2.92% | 4,336 | -0.64% | | 2602 | 1,831 | -467 | 2,469 | -736 | | | | 2603 | 4,340 | 3.98% | 4,298 | -0.97% | PG | 260 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a weak downward trend in futures prices, with a notable decline in both spot and futures contracts, while supply and demand dynamics are showing mixed signals as inventory levels increase across various sectors [5]. Supply - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of 88 coal mines is reported at 85.44%, an increase of 3.62% week-on-week, with raw coal production at 862.95 million tons per week, up by 36.57 million tons [2]. - The inventory of raw coal stands at 200.72 million tons, down by 18.54 million tons week-on-week, while the production of premium coal is at 439.21 million tons per week, an increase of 19.19 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coal mines is at 88.5%, with a week-on-week increase of 3.1%, and daily raw coal production at 197.8 million tons, up by 7.9 million tons [2]. Demand - As of January 15, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants is 63.4 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 million tons week-on-week, while steel mills report an average daily coke production of 46.7 million tons, down by 0.2 million tons [3]. - The average daily pig iron production is at 228.01 million tons, a decrease of 1.49 million tons, with a blast furnace operating rate of 78.84%, down by 0.47% [3]. - The profitability of steel mills is reported at 39.83%, an increase of 2.17% week-on-week, indicating some resilience in the sector despite overall production declines [3]. Inventory - As of January 15, total coal inventory across various sectors has increased by 128.4 million tons to 4247.1 million tons, with specific increases in inventories at coal mines, washing plants, coking plants, and ports [4]. - The inventory at 523 coal mines has risen by 17.7 million tons to 550.8 million tons, while washing plants have seen an increase of 20.7 million tons to 541.7 million tons [4]. - The inventory at coastal ports has increased by 17.8 million tons to 728.9 million tons, reflecting a broader trend of rising stock levels across the coal supply chain [4].

Morning session notice 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格下跌 18 元至 2311 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格上涨 37 元至 2300 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 21258 手至 46.7 万手，空 头持仓增加 30783 手至 59.04 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 89.9%，环比-1.3%。海外甲醇开工率 60.8%，环比+1.3%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 甲醇 | 震荡 | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 145.75 万吨，较上一期数据增加 2.22 万吨。 其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 1.36 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 3.58 万吨。 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 43.83 万吨，较上期降 1.25 万吨，环比降 2.78%。 3、需求方面，西北甲醇企业签单 4.64 万吨，环比减少 4.78 万吨。 ...

2026年01月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 2 | | 铜：美元承压，价格偏强 | 4 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：24000一线震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：高位震荡 | 10 | | 铂：跟随黄金白银回调但趋势并未反转 | 12 | | 钯：找底后继续演绎 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black commodities, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each market, with the overall view that most markets are expected to show a wide - range of fluctuations in the short term, and specific trading strategies vary according to different market conditions [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Performance**: On Monday, precious metals continued to rise. London gold reached $5000 per ounce, and London silver reached $117 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In the US, durable goods orders in November increased by 5.3% compared to the previous month (expected increase of 4%). The probability of the US government shutting down again before January 31 has soared to nearly 80%. Domestic gold ETFs had a large inflow of 3.7 tons. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 6.3 tons to 1117.8 tons; SHFE gold inventory increased by 1 ton to 103.0 tons; SPDR gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1086.5 tons. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 36.8 tons to 12914 tons; SHFE silver inventory decreased by 7.3 tons to 573.8 tons; iShares silver ETF holdings decreased by 115.6 tons to 15974.4 tons; the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory last week decreased by 105 tons to 506 tons; London's silver inventory at the end of December increased from 27183 tons to 27814 tons; India imported about 750 tons of silver in November (imports in October were revised to 1898 tons) [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to Trump's policy changes leading to the selling of US Treasuries, the gold price is rising steadily, so it is recommended to go long. For silver, the speculative sentiment is strong, the inventory shortage in the London area is gradually easing, and the domestic speculative sentiment is high. It is recommended to participate with caution [1]. Base Metals - **Aluminum** - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.31% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 24215 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 430 yuan per ton. The LME price was $3190 per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. On the demand side, the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of a weakening downstream operating rate, inventory continues to accumulate, and overseas new production capacity expectations are gradually being realized. The pre - holiday market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, leading to a contraction in speculative buying. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [2]. - **Alumina** - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 0.29% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2732 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 97 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and maintenance stage. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: There are short - term fluctuations in supply, and the price has rebounded at a low valuation. However, the oversupply pattern has not changed, and the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term, and the movement of the main funds should be followed [2]. - **Zinc and Lead** - **Market Performance**: On the 1st day session, the main zinc and lead contracts closed at 24725 yuan per ton and 17070 yuan per ton respectively, increasing by 140 yuan and decreasing by 25 yuan compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 150 yuan per ton and - 105 yuan per ton respectively, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 32.62 and - 44.556 US dollars per ton respectively. Zinc's seven - region inventory on January 26 was 11.68 million tons, a decrease of 0.20 million tons compared to January 22; lead's five - region inventory on January 26 was 3.52 million tons, an increase of 0.07 million tons compared to January 22 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The lead market shows a pattern of narrowing supply and weak consumption. The negative profit of secondary lead has led to production cuts, but the downstream consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weak, and the Spring Festival inventory - building demand is limited. The social inventory of lead ingots has increased to 3.45 million tons, putting pressure on the lead price. In the zinc market, supply - side disturbances have increased, and some smelters' maintenance has led to reduced arrivals. However, downstream procurement is cautious in the off - season, and the operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting enterprises are fluctuating. The seven - region zinc ingot inventory remains at a high level of 11.88 million tons, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The positive sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has not dissipated. Overall, it is advisable to buy on dips or wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the market opened flat and rose slightly throughout the day. The main 05 contract closed at 8915 yuan per ton, an increase of 95 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 1.08%. The trading volume increased by 20873 lots to 252300 lots. The variety's settled funds increased by 239 million yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 144 lots to 13115 lots [3]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces this week decreased by 3 compared to last week, mainly due to the reduction in Sichuan. Social inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, both the polysilicon and silicone industries are promoting anti - involution. The polysilicon production in January is expected to decline to 100,000 tons. The silicone industry is holding up prices, and the weekly production has continued to decrease slightly. The aluminum alloy operating rate has remained stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Currently, there are continuous rumors of production cuts in the northwest on the supply side, but the duration of the cuts is still uncertain. On the demand side, the production - cut expectations for polysilicon and silicone still exist. The market is more concerned about the actual production - cut situation of large enterprises this week. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan, and it is advisable to go short lightly on rallies [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon** - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the market rose rapidly by nearly 3% after opening and then oscillated slightly throughout the day. The main 05 contract closed at 51280 yuan per ton, an increase of 560 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 1.1%. The trading volume decreased by 1 lot to 41290 lots. The variety's settled funds increased by 51 million yuan to 3.533 billion yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts remained at 6850 lots [3]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly production decreased by nearly 10%, and the industry inventory increased slightly this week. The number of warehouse receipts increased significantly this week, with a month - on - month increase of 50%. On the demand side, the production schedule of silicon wafers in January remained stable, while the production schedules of solar cells and components decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. The export of components in April - May increased by 10% year - on - year. The cancellation of the photovoltaic export tax - rebate policy on the 9th has a certain supporting effect on the component export during the window period, and the demand side is expected to be stable in the off - season [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the "anti - monopoly" event interview, the futures price has fully reflected the negative news. The near - term balance sheet has shifted from a loose to a tight supply - demand balance. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the emotional impact brought by the subsequent feedback of industry associations on this interview event. In the short term, the main contract is expected to oscillate between 48000 - 53000 yuan [3]. - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: The tin price rose and then fell yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The exchange restricted the trading limit of tin futures yesterday, causing the tin price to rise and then fall. On the supply side, the shortage pattern of tin ore continues, and the tin ore production in Wa State is gradually recovering. The Indonesian exchange has started to have tin export - related trading volumes. The domestic warehouse receipts increased by 42 tons, and the premium of deliverable brands is 700 yuan. The London structure is at a contango of 350 US dollars [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for now and wait for a low - price buying opportunity [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar** - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3144 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the Gangyin data, the building material inventory increased by 5.2% month - on - month to 3.16 million tons (last week's increase was 1.4%). The rebar shipment in Hangzhou on the weekend was 68,000 tons (72,000 tons last week); the inventory was 492,000 tons (488,000 tons last week, 640,000 tons in the same period last year). The supply and demand of steel are neutral, and the structural differentiation is still significant. The demand for building materials remains weak year - on - year, but fortunately, the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year, so the contradiction is limited; the demand for plates is stable, direct and indirect exports remain high, the inventory level is still high, but the marginal change in inventory is at its strongest level in the same period in history. Steel mills are continuously making losses, and the room for production increase is limited. In terms of valuation, the spot steel market was relatively weak last week, and the futures valuation is neutral. It is expected that the steel futures and spot markets will fluctuate widely in the short term [4][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term shorting of the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3110 - 3170 yuan [5]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 789 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 1.48 million tons month - on - month to 23.94 million tons, an increase of 5.26 million tons year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral. According to the Ganglian data, the molten iron production remained basically unchanged month - on - month, an increase of 1.2% year - on - year. The fourth round of price cuts has been implemented, but the coking plants have proposed the first round of price increases. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production may decline slightly. The supply side conforms to the seasonal pattern and is slightly higher year - on - year. The proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory in ports and the number of days of steel mill inventory remain at the lowest levels in the same period in history. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is slightly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is neutral. It is expected that the iron ore futures and spot markets will fluctuate widely in the short term [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see mainly. The reference range for I05 is 780 - 810 yuan [5]. - **Coking Coal** - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1137 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the Ganglian data, the molten iron production increased by 100 tons month - on - month to 2.281 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production may decline slightly. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and the first round of price increases has been proposed. On the supply side, the inventories at various links are differentiated, with high inventories at ports and mines and low inventories at other links. The overall inventory level is low. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained. The futures valuation is high. The supply and demand of coking coal are weak [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term shorting of the coking coal 2605 contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1110 - 1160 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybeans declined overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the near - term supply is loose; in the long - term, South America maintains a large - supply expectation. Brazil has entered the early harvest stage, but the weather in Argentina is dry. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports are improving marginally. Overall, the global supply - demand is expected to be loose [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, US soybeans are expected to stabilize and strengthen. Pay attention to the weather market. In China, it will follow the international cost side and fluctuate in stages. Pay attention to the South American weather and customs policies [6]. - **Corn** - **Market Performance**: The corn futures oscillated narrowly, and the spot prices in some corn - producing areas increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply and demand, the grain - selling progress has exceeded half, and the grain - selling pressure is not large. Farmers are reluctant to sell and are holding up prices. The inventories at north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years. Northeast deep - processing enterprises have a high enthusiasm for building inventories. Southern regions prefer to import due to the high cost - effectiveness of imported grains. The short - term spot price is expected to follow the northern regions and strengthen. Pay attention to weather and policy changes [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian market rose yesterday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the MPOA estimates that the Malaysian production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14% month - on - month, which is in the seasonal production - reduction period. On the demand side, exports improved month - on - month. The high - frequency ITS data shows that the Malaysian exports from January 1 - 25 increased by 10% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term supply is loose, and the long - term supply is in the seasonal production - reduction period [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are expected to strengthen in stages, trading on the weak current situation and strong expectations, and the reverse - spread will continue. In the medium term, pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Sugar** - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5170 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.1%. The basis between the Nanning spot and the Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract is 100 yuan per ton. The estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar after tax with out - of - quota imports is 323 yuan per ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the sugar - alcohol price difference has widened by 2 cents again and is still expanding. There is an expectation of reducing the sugar - alcohol ratio in the next season. Continuously observe the growth of Brazilian sugarcane and the impact of the sugar - alcohol price difference on the next season's Brazilian production. Currently, it is still in an oscillating pattern. Domestically, the overall sales - production progress this year is slow. New sugar is mainly stored in warehouses, and the future spot pressure is greater. SR05 is priced by imports and domestic production. The import volume in December adds pressure again, and the fundamentals are bearish, but beware of the risk of state - reserve purchases due to macro policies [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions and wait and see mainly [8]. - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures price declined significantly overnight. The international crude oil oscillated narrowly,