宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 7 月 6 日 周度金融市场跟踪 财经委会议"反内卷"，钢铁建材领涨 A 股；债 券市场收益率整体小幅震荡下行 （ 6 月 30 日 -7 月 4 日） 股票方面，本周 A 股震荡上涨，全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 1.5%，中证 2000 上涨 0.6%。本周港股走势弱于 A 股，恒生指数下跌 1.5%，恒生科技指数下跌 2.3%。行业方面，本周钢铁、建筑材料和银行领涨，计算机、非银金融和美容 护理领跌。周内看，周一（6 月 30 日）上午，6 月制造业 PMI 指数发布，连续 2 个月回升。当天市场超 4000 只股票上涨。周二（7 月 1 日）市场震荡上涨。 周二盘后中央财经委第六次会议新闻发布，会议强调依法依规治理企业低价无 序竞争。受此影响，周三（7 月 2 日）钢铁、煤炭和建筑材料等传统周期类行业 领涨 A 股。周四（7 月 3 日）盘前美国解除对中国芯片设计类软件出口限制新 闻发出，当天市场超 3200 家公司上涨，创业板指数上涨 1.9%。周五（7 月 4 日） 市场有所分化，以沪深 300 为代表的大盘股上涨，但以中证 2000 为代 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is still in a favorable environment with the central bank maintaining a moderately loose policy, but there are potential disturbances. The third quarter may still be a good window for long - positions, but the time may be later [4][5][37]. - Short - term central bank's total - volume easing policies are relatively limited, and whether the capital interest rate will be further relaxed is worth discussing. The pricing of funds and certificates of deposit in the new steady - state needs further observation [4][21][37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Performance this Week - From June 30 to July 4, the bond market showed a volatile and strong pattern, with most yields of interest - rate bonds declining. After the cross - quarter period, the funds were loose, and the overnight interest rate dropped to 1.3%. The medium - and short - term bonds performed strongly, and the interest rate of 50 - year treasury bonds decreased significantly. As of July 4, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 50Y treasury bonds changed by - 0.9BP, - 0.7BP, - 0.3BP, + 0.2BP, - 3.4BP respectively from last week, reaching 1.34%, 1.35%, 1.64%, 1.85%, 1.94% [1][8]. 3.2 Understanding the Boundary of Central Bank's Easing - **July Liquidity Situation**: In July, the liquidity usually shows a seasonal loosening trend. The reasons include that July is a small month for credit lending, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit decreases, and the seasonal return of wealth - management funds. However, there are concerns such as the impact of fiscal and tax periods, the pressure of government bond supply, and the increase in the maturity scale of open - market operations. The central bank's monetary policy attitude is crucial, and the marginal pricing and phased steady - state of funds and certificates of deposit may become clearer in the middle of the quarter [16][20]. - **Central Bank's Policy Tools**: In the short term, the probability of the central bank cutting the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates is low. It may prefer to use tools such as MLF renewal and outright reverse repurchase to inject liquidity. The central bank may restart treasury bond purchases during the peak of government bond supply, especially in August - September [3][21]. 3.3 Potential Disturbances in the Bond Market - **Fundamental Changes under Tariff Deduction**: After the Sino - US tariff mitigation, the external demand and export pressure have eased, the economic pessimistic expectations have been revised, and the long - term interest rate may face upward pressure. However, there is still uncertainty in subsequent tariff policies [26]. - **Stock - Bond "Seesaw" Effect**: If the fundamentals stabilize and the economic recovery expectation strengthens, the risk preference may shift, and the stock - bond "seesaw" effect may be more prominent, which may suppress the bond market [29]. - **Incremental Policy Tools**: It is necessary to pay attention to the effectiveness of wide - credit restoration under the strengthening of fiscal policies and the impact of new policy - based financial tools on the bond market. The new policy - based financial tools may have a scale of 50 billion yuan, and if deployed in the third quarter, they may boost the economy in the third and fourth quarters [33][34]. 3.4 Next Week's Key Focus - July 7: China's foreign exchange reserves in June, Japan's international reserves in June [38]. - July 8: Japan's current account balance in May, Germany's export value in May [38]. - July 9: China's CPI year - on - year and PPI year - on - year in June, Japan's M2 year - on - year in June [38]. - July 10: China's social financing data and credit data in June [38]. - July 11: Germany's CPI year - on - year in June, UK's trade balance in May [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The game points of Treasury bond futures are concentrated on the dual disturbances of risk preference and capital. The stock - bond seesaw effect and the rise of long - term interest rates suppress the bond market, while the government bond tax payment peak and cross - month factors cause concerns about capital tightness, further suppressing the long sentiment of Treasury bond futures. The current domestic economic repair momentum is still weak, so the monetary policy maintains a supportive stance and the liquidity environment is generally loose [2] - In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate under the game between loose capital and supply disturbances. The market's focus will gradually shift to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations, and future policy tone and external disturbances will dominate the trend direction [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI monthly环比 is - 0.20% and同比 is - 0.10%; China's PPI monthly环比 is - 0.40% and同比 is - 3.30% [8] - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of + 0.51%; M2同比 is 7.90%, with a decrease of - 0.10% and a change rate of - 1.25%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with an increase of + 0.20% and a growth rate of + 0.40% [8] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.78, with an increase of + 0.13 and a growth rate of + 0.13%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1640, with an increase of + 0.008 and a growth rate of + 0.11%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.50, with a decrease of - 0.03 and a change rate of - 2.16%; DR007 is 1.51, with a decrease of - 0.04 and a change rate of - 2.61%; R007 is 1.64, with a decrease of - 0.12 and a change rate of - 6.66%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with a decrease of - 0.03 and a change rate of - 1.94%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.07, with an increase of + 0.00 and a change rate of - 1.94% [8] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant charts show the closing price trend, price change rate, maturity yield trend, valuation change, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio, long - short position ratio, trading - position ratio, bond lending turnover and total position of Treasury bond futures, as well as the spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds and the issuance of Treasury bonds [9][13][15][16][19][26][28] 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - Relevant charts show the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance [24][29][32] 4. Spread Overview - Relevant charts show the inter - period spread trend of Treasury bond futures and the spread between spot - bond term spread and futures cross - variety spread [36][39][40] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [42][44][55] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [51][54][57] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [62][65] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [70][73][76]

Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: July 2, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Li Shukai 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The ultra-long-term credit bond market cooled down in the last week of June after two consecutive weeks of heating up, but it is only a temporary adjustment without signs of a market reversal. - In the short term, one can be more optimistic about the opportunities to participate in ultra-long-term credit bonds, especially considering the potential incremental space from the expansion of bond ETF products, which may improve the liquidity of ultra-long-term bonds. - However, the thin coupon protection makes them less resistant to fluctuations, and the vulnerability of the liability side of public fund products should not be ignored. A strategy of quick entry and exit and staying ahead of the news may be a good choice [5][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Ultra-long Term Temporarily Cools Down - **Market Performance in the Last Week of June**: The bond market entered a consolidation phase, with interest rates first weakening and then strengthening. Credit bonds performed worse than interest rate bonds, with larger declines. Affected by the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, the short - and medium - term yields of interest rate bonds fluctuated downward, while the long - and ultra - long - term yields adjusted. Credit bonds had different trends from interest rate bonds, with relatively larger adjustment amplitudes [3][10]. - **Performance of Ultra-long-term Credit Bonds**: After two consecutive weeks of rising, ultra-long-term credit bonds adjusted, with the adjustment amplitude even exceeding that of the same - term interest rate bonds. The yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y medium - term notes increased by 2.5BP and decreased by 1.5BP respectively, and the yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y urban investment bonds increased by 3.7BP and 1.7BP respectively, while the 10Y treasury bond yield only increased by 0.7BP [3][10]. - **Curve Morphology**: The steepness of the 1 - 2 year for medium - and high - grade bonds and the 2 - 5 year for low - grade bonds was the highest, but overall it was slightly lower than at the end of May, and the short - end remained flat [12]. - **Absolute Yield and Credit Spread**: The coupon value remains low. In terms of credit spreads, there may be opportunities around the 3 - year mark. After a week of adjustment, the short - term 1 - year still lacks cost - effectiveness, while the protection of the 3 - year has strengthened [14]. - **Performance of Perpetual and Tier 2 Bonds**: The market of perpetual and tier 2 bonds weakened. The decline of those within 5 years was similar to that of the same - term general credit bonds, and the performance of those over 7 years was comparable to that of ultra-long - term credit bonds. The yield of 4 - 10 year AAA - bank tier 2 capital bonds increased by 1.98BP, 0.36BP, 1.38BP, 4.01BP, 3.69BP, 3.85BP, and 2.62BP respectively [4][16]. - **Active Trading of Perpetual and Tier 2 Bonds**: The trading sentiment fluctuated throughout the week, being poor on Tuesday and Wednesday and better on the other days. The proportion of low - valuation transactions and the average trading duration also fluctuated. The trading amplitude of low - valuation and discount transactions was small [18][19][21]. - **Selling and Buying Intentions of Ultra-long-term Credit Bonds**: Institutions' selling intention increased compared with the previous week, but the discount amplitude was mostly within 3BP, not an urgent selling situation. The market's buying intention was not weak, with about 43% of the low - valuation transactions having an amplitude of 4BP or more, indicating the existence of allocation demand [5][22][24].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The report highlights the pressure on bank wealth management product yields due to the stock-bond seesaw effect and seasonal liquidity constraints, indicating a potential long-term decline in yields [4][17] - Regulatory changes are pushing for innovation in financial products to meet household wealth management needs, which is crucial for the banking wealth management sector [10][11] - The report notes that the valuation rectification of bank wealth management products is ongoing, with many institutions completing their mid-year plans by the end of June [11][12] Summary by Sections Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - On June 24, the People's Bank of China and five other departments issued guidelines to support consumption and promote financial products that meet household wealth management needs [3][10] - The valuation rectification of bank wealth management products is a significant focus, with many banks reporting progress in their mid-year plans [11] - As of the end of May, the total net asset value of public funds in China reached 33.74 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.26 billion yuan from April [12] Yield Performance - For the week of June 23-29, cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.42%, up by 1 basis point, while money market funds reported a yield of 1.32%, up by 2 basis points [4][14] - Most pure fixed income and fixed income+ products saw a decline in annualized yields, influenced by various factors including the stock-bond seesaw effect and geopolitical risks [16][17] Net Asset Value Tracking - The report indicates that the net asset value of bank wealth management products was 0.83%, up by 0.1 percentage points, remaining at a low level [25][26] - Credit spreads have narrowed, indicating limited value, and future trends in credit spreads will be closely monitored as they may impact the net asset value [25][27]

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - On June 24, the People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to support consumption, emphasizing the need for innovative financial products that meet household wealth management needs and enhance residents' property income [2][5] - As of May 2025, there are 164 public fund management institutions in China, managing a total net asset value of 33.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.26 billion yuan from April [6] Yield Performance - For the week of June 23-29, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.42%, up 1 basis point, while money market funds reported a yield of 1.32%, up 2 basis points [3][8] - The yield of pure fixed income and fixed income + products generally declined, influenced by factors such as the stock-bond seesaw effect and seasonal liquidity [9][10] Product Innovation and Market Trends - ICBC Wealth Management and China Post Wealth Management participated as cornerstone investors in the IPO of Sanhua Intelligent Control, each acquiring a stake of 20 million USD [7] - The ongoing valuation rectification in bank wealth management is expected to limit product yield potential, as companies shift focus towards low-volatility, high-liquidity assets [10][14]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shifted from a bull market to a volatile market due to various factors including changes in monetary policy, liquidity conditions, and geopolitical events [2][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The recent rebound in the A-share market has improved market risk sentiment, leading to a decline in government bond futures [1]. - As of June 30, the 30-year government bond futures experienced a significant drop of 0.5%, marking the largest pullback since June 23, with a total decline exceeding 1% [1][4]. - On July 1, the 30-year government bond futures rebounded, rising over 0.3% [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in the bond market is attributed to a tightening of the funding environment, a recovery in risk appetite, and an increase in bond supply [1]. - The net financing amount for interest rate bonds in June was 17,070 million, a slight decrease of 878 million from May, but an increase of 8,612 million compared to the same period in 2024 [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect the bond market to gradually strengthen in July, despite a weak fundamental backdrop and a loose liquidity environment [1]. - The bond market is anticipated to exhibit a volatile upward trend, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields facing resistance levels of 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively [7]. - The liquidity situation is expected to remain stable, supported by the central bank's actions, although fluctuations in funding rates may occur due to tax payments and government bond settlements [8].

对于今年6月以来的债市，西部证券认为，大行持续买短债，央行买断式逆回购有力呵护，叠加基本面数 据表现偏弱、地缘政治冲突加剧，债市利好因素累积增多，收益率基本处于下行通道，但止盈情绪升温制 约债市进一步上涨空间，市场博弈利差挖掘行情。 在近期A股市场震荡走高之际，市场风险情绪好转，国债期货各品种均有所回落。 6月30日，30年期国债期货盘中大跌0.5%，自6月23日以来最大回撤幅度超过1%。不过，7月1日，30年 期国债期货价格有所反弹，一度涨超0.3%。 分析人士指出，近期期债市场回落主要是受资金面收敛、风险偏好回升以及债券供应放量等因素影响。进 入7月份，在基本面偏弱和流动性偏宽松的情况下，债市或逐步走强。 债市进入震荡市 今年以来，在货币政策节奏变化、市场流动性松紧转换以及海外事件驱动等多因素作用下，债市告别单边 牛市，进入震荡市。 今年6月下旬，随着中东局势降温，市场避险情绪走弱，风险偏好再度回归，股债跷跷板打压债市，国债 期货各品种均有所回落。 30年期国债期货自6月23日以来，最大回撤幅度超过1%，10年期国债期货回撤幅度接近0.3%，5年期国 债期货和2年期国债期货也出现了不同程度回撤。 7月1日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond futures market has experienced a decline since late June, influenced by factors such as tightening liquidity, rising risk appetite, and increased bond supply. However, as the fundamentals remain weak and liquidity is expected to be loose, the bond market may gradually strengthen in July [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond futures market has seen a pullback due to a tightening of the funding environment, with interbank market rates rising significantly, particularly DR007 which increased from around 1.5% to over 2%, marking a new high in over a month [1]. - The A-share market's continuous rise has created a "see-saw effect" with the bond market, as major indices reached yearly highs, leading to a shift of funds from the bond market to the stock market, particularly affecting long-term government bond futures [1]. - The issuance of bonds surged in June, with local government special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds contributing to supply shocks in the bond market. The net financing of local government special bonds reached 529.2 billion yuan in the last week of June, a record high for the year [1]. Group 2: Future Expectations - Analysts expect that as the basic economic pressures increase and liquidity remains loose, the bond market is likely to strengthen in July. The anticipated decline in domestic demand and the weakening momentum of enterprises in the third quarter will further transmit pressure to the economy [2]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy meeting indicated a shift towards a more flexible approach to policy implementation, suggesting that the expectation of loose liquidity will gradually rise, which is favorable for the bond market [2]. - Key areas to monitor in July include changes in monetary policy and market liquidity, the impact of fiscal policy and bond supply, and economic data and expectations [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to fluctuate in the short - term. Although the marginal improvement of manufacturing PMI puts pressure on treasury bond futures prices, the need for a loose monetary environment provides support, so they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", and the overall view is "fluctuation". The core logic is the marginal improvement of manufacturing PMI data [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures fluctuated and corrected yesterday. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, showing an upward trend compared with 49.5 last month, and the new order index returned to the expansion range. This reduces the urgency of future interest rate cuts and puts pressure on treasury bond futures prices. Also, the rapid recovery of risk appetite in the stock market has strengthened the stock - bond seesaw effect, reducing investors' preference for treasury bonds. However, the need for policy support for domestic demand recovery means a loose monetary environment is still needed, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [5].