Group 1 - The UK and India are expected to announce a trade agreement next week, which will include sectors such as whisky, electric vehicles, and textiles [1]

贸易协议仍在可能的范畴内。 美国财长贝森特：好协议比仓促达成协议更重要。 ...

美国财长贝森特：日本的贸易协议仍处于"可能性范围内"。 ...

Core Points - The trade agreement between Indonesia and the United States includes arrangements for simplifying import licenses and protecting intellectual property [1]

Group 1 - The Dutch Finance Minister stated that the EU would be forced to retaliate if no trade agreement is reached with the United States [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries. For example, the potential change in the 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue between the US and China is worth attention [7]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to move within a range. For instance, gold is expected to oscillate upward, while tin's price is weakening [14][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fentanyl Issue - Trump believes China will soon sentence fentanyl traffickers to death and is optimistic about reaching an agreement on illegal drugs with China. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl problem is the US's own issue, and the US's imposition of tariffs on fentanyl has damaged Sino - US cooperation in the anti - drug field. The 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue remains in effect, and whether it will change is worthy of attention [7]. 3.2 Commodity Recommendations by the Director - **Bean Meal**: Since mid - July, the domestic bean meal futures have stopped falling earlier than US soybeans and broken through the technical resistance level. The reasons are the strong sentiment in the domestic commodity market and the low - valuation advantage of bean meal. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, there are no additional negative impacts. Once the US soybean price recovers, the bean meal price will break through. After the current rally, there is a risk of a pullback, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals such as the trade agreement, US soybean weather, and the August USDA report [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, the supply and demand of the caustic soda market have not changed much, with sufficient supply and increased shipments to major downstream industries. The spot has no upward momentum, and the futures have been weak in the past two days. In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, and new capacity of 1.1 million tons may be added in July - August. The new capacity pressure is basically digested by exports. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost is strongly supported by the weak liquid chlorine. It is recommended to participate in the 10 - 1 spread arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][18][23]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The good US economic data supports the copper price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][26][29]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to move within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][30]. - **Lead**: The downside may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][32][33]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of - 1 [14][35][39]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly with a trend intensity of 1, and cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum with a trend intensity of 0 [14][40][42]. - **Nickel**: The news affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel is in a game between reality and macro factors, and the steel price oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [14][43][47]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances have emerged again, and the short - term trend may be strong. The trend intensity is 1 [14][48][50]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and attention should be paid to market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. Polysilicon's futures may rise and then fall, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][51][55]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][59][61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The steel procurement sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 0 [14][63][65]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has completed the first round of price increase and oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Coking coal oscillates widely, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. The trend intensity is 0 [14][70][73]. - **Log**: It oscillates widely [74].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate upward, while silver is predicted to break through and rise [2][5] - Copper prices are supported by good US economic data [2][13] - Zinc is expected to operate within a range [2][17] - The downside of lead prices may be limited [2][19] - Tin prices are weakening [2][22] - Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in aluminum inventory; alumina is expected to oscillate strongly; cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum [2][27] - Nickel is affected by news and its fundamentals are under pressure; stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][30] - Due to supply - side disturbances, the short - term trend of lithium carbonate may be strong [2][35] - For industrial silicon, pay attention to market sentiment due to warehouse receipt accumulation; the polycrystalline silicon market may rise and then fall [2][39] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly supported by macro expectations [2][43] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices will oscillate widely due to strong market sentiment [2][46] - Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy will oscillate widely due to strong steel procurement sentiment [2][50] - Coke has completed the first round of price increase and will oscillate widely; coking coal will oscillate widely [2][24][53] - The daily consumption of thermal coal is recovering, and its price will stabilize with oscillations [2][57] - Logs will oscillate widely [2][61] - Para - xylene and PTA will fluctuate following costs; MEG has low inventory, and positive spreads can be set up when the monthly spread is low [2][65] Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Core View**: Gold to oscillate upward, silver to break through and rise [2][5] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of gold and silver futures and spot markets are provided. The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1 [6] - **News**: Trump's government plans to visit the Fed; Fed Governor Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July; US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month [6][8][9] Copper - **Core View**: US economic data supports copper prices [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of copper futures and spot markets are provided. China's copper imports in June showed different trends [14] - **News**: US retail sales are strong, and the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased; China's copper imports in June are released [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [16] Zinc - **Core View**: Zinc will operate within a range [2][17] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of zinc futures and spot markets are provided [17] - **News**: Potential Fed Chairman candidate Warsh supports Trump's pressure on the Fed; Fed Governor Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [17] Lead - **Core View**: The downside of lead prices may be limited [2][19] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of lead futures and spot markets are provided [19] - **News**: Similar to zinc news [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [20] Tin - **Core View**: Tin prices are weakening [2][22] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of tin futures and spot markets are provided [23] - **News**: Similar to gold and silver news [24] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [26] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core View**: Pay attention to aluminum inventory changes; alumina to oscillate strongly; cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum [2][27] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot markets are provided [27] - **News**: Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's independence is a "myth", and the US stock market may rise under the expectation of rate cuts; the US - India agreement is close to being reached [29] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum: 0; Alumina: 1; Cast Aluminum Alloy: 0 [29] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Core View**: Nickel is affected by news and its fundamentals are under pressure; stainless steel prices will oscillate [2][30] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot markets are provided [30] - **News**: Multiple events in the nickel industry, such as project production, factory shutdowns, and production recoveries [31][32] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [34] Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Due to supply - side disturbances, the short - term trend of lithium carbonate may be strong [2][35] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of lithium carbonate futures and spot markets are provided [35] - **News**: SMM's lithium carbonate index price increased; Zangge Lithium Industry stopped production; this week's lithium carbonate production increased, and inventory also increased [36][37] - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [37] Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - **Core View**: For industrial silicon, pay attention to market sentiment due to warehouse receipt accumulation; the polycrystalline silicon market may rise and then fall [2][39] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon futures and spot markets are provided [39] - **News**: Bangjie Co., Ltd. terminated a photovoltaic project [39][40] - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial Silicon: 0; Polycrystalline Silicon: 0 [42] Iron Ore - **Core View**: Iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly supported by macro expectations [2][43] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of iron ore futures and spot markets are provided [43] - **News**: The Central Urban Work Conference was held [43] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [43] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Core View**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices will oscillate widely due to strong market sentiment [2][46] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot markets are provided [46] - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and export data are released; June's financial data is announced [47][48] - **Trend Intensity**: Rebar: 1; Hot - Rolled Coil: 1 [47] Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy - **Core View**: Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy will oscillate widely due to strong steel procurement sentiment [2][50] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy futures and spot markets are provided [50] - **News**: Spot prices and steel procurement prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are announced; steel production data is released [51][52] - **Trend Intensity**: Silicon Ferroalloy: 0; Manganese Ferroalloy: 0 [52] Coke and Coking Coal - **Core View**: Coke has completed the first round of price increase and will oscillate widely; coking coal will oscillate widely [2][24][53] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of coke and coking coal futures and spot markets are provided [53] - **News**: Northern port coking coal quotes, CCI metallurgical coal index, and position changes are announced [53][54][55] - **Trend Intensity**: Coke: 0; Coking Coal: 1 [55] Thermal Coal - **Core View**: The daily consumption of thermal coal is recovering, and its price will stabilize with oscillations [2][57] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's trading situation of thermal coal futures, southern port and domestic origin quotes, and position changes are provided [58][59] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [60] Logs - **Core View**: Logs will oscillate widely [2][61] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and spot market prices of log futures are provided [62] - **News**: The Central Urban Work Conference was held [64] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [64] Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Core View**: Para - xylene and PTA will fluctuate following costs; MEG has low inventory, and positive spreads can be set up when the monthly spread is low [2][65] - No specific fundamentals and news are provided for these three products in the content

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, and silver is expected to break through and move upward [2][4]. - The good US economic data supports the copper price [2][9]. - Zinc is expected to operate within a range [2][13]. - The downside of lead may be limited [2][15]. - The price of tin is weakening [2][18]. - For aluminum, attention should be paid to the marginal changes in inventory; alumina is expected to be volatile and bullish; cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel is affected by news - related sentiment, and its fundamentals are under pressure; stainless steel prices are expected to move in a volatile manner due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of沪金2510 was 776.28 with a daily decline of 0.05%, and the closing price of沪银2510 was 9166 with a daily increase of 0.15%. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts also changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's government is expected to visit the Fed regarding decoration issues. The next - likely Fed chairman, Waller, suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July. US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1 [7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪铜主力合约 was 77,850 with a daily decline of 0.15%. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed, and the inventory of沪铜 decreased by 8,103 tons [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US retail sales data was strong, and the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased. China's imports of copper concentrates and unwrought copper and copper products in June showed different trends [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪锌主力 was 22120 with a daily increase of 0.41%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [13]. - **News**: Potential Fed chairman candidates have different views on Fed policies, and Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪铅主力 was 16845 with a daily decline of 0.30%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [15]. - **News**: Similar to zinc, potential Fed chairman candidates have different views on Fed policies, and Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪锡主力合约 was 261,920 with a daily decline of 0.77%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar macro - level news as other metals, such as Fed - related news and US economic data [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is - 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the沪铝主力合约 was 20415. For alumina, the closing price of the沪氧化铝主力合约 was 3089. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's independence is a "myth", and the US and India are close to reaching a trade agreement [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and cast aluminum alloy is 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪镍主力 was 119,880, and the closing price of the不锈钢主力 was 12,730. The trading volume, positions, and relevant prices in the industrial chain changed [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are issues such as potential nickel export restrictions from Canada, the start of trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, and the resumption of production of a nickel smelter in Indonesia [26][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [30].

Core Viewpoint - Canada is committed to intensifying efforts to secure the most favorable trade agreements [1] Group 1 - The Canadian Finance Minister emphasized the importance of achieving beneficial trade deals for the country [1] - The government aims to enhance its negotiation strategies to improve trade outcomes [1] - There is a focus on collaboration with international partners to strengthen trade relations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the futures market, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It provides market conditions, news, capital flows, and operational suggestions for each sector, aiming to offer investors insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market showed a decline with volume contraction, and structural themes were active. Four major stock index futures contracts had mixed performance. Amid new US trade policy negotiation windows, it's advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market was in a narrow - range oscillation. With the central bank's increased open - market operations, the bond market sentiment improved. A range - bound operation strategy is recommended, and one can consider a curve - steepening strategy [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Rumors of Trump dismissing the Fed chairman affected market sentiment, causing precious metals to rise. Gold has a long - term upward trend, but currently lacks a clear driver. Silver may have further upward potential, and it's recommended to buy on dips [8][10][11]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - **Container Shipping Futures**: The futures market oscillated downward. The 08 contract is expected to be strong, and it's advisable to be bullish on it [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US tariffs will change the supply pattern, and the market will focus on Sino - US tariff negotiations. The short - term view is a weakening oscillation [15][16][19]. - **Alumina**: Spot supply is temporarily tight, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It's recommended to short on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: High - level prices are under pressure. The short - term view is a wide - range oscillation [21][22][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market is in a weak state during the off - season, with a weakening oscillation expected [24][25]. - **Zinc**: Inventories are increasing, and demand is expected to be weak. The short - term view is an oscillation [26][28][29]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to recover, and it's recommended to hold short positions [30][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The market oscillates strongly, but industrial overcapacity restricts upward movement. The short - term view is an interval adjustment [32][33][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market oscillates, with the short - term view being an interval operation [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is strong due to news, but fundamental pressure remains. The short - term view is a strong - range oscillation [39][40][42]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Valuation is being repaired, and the market may enter an oscillating phase [43][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is oscillating strongly. It's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread operation [46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are strong, and it's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a long - iron - ore short - coking - coal spread operation [49][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price is expected to rebound. It's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a long - iron - ore short - coke spread operation [52][55][57]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: US soybeans have strong bottom support, and domestic meal prices are supported by rising import costs. It's advisable to be cautiously bullish [58][59][60]. - **Pigs**: There is potential supply pressure, and it's recommended to go short on rallies [61][62]. - **Corn**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating and correcting [63].