特朗普：今晚将会见英国首相，将讨论与英国的贸易协议，可能会批准。 ...

Group 1: Japan's Economic Outlook - Tokyo's inflation has decreased in July but remains high enough to support the Bank of Japan's consideration of policy normalization [1][2] - The Japanese government’s measures to stabilize prices are starting to show effects, yet core inflation pressures in Tokyo remain elevated [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its core inflation forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, excluding energy price fluctuations [2] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Predictions - Morgan Stanley has postponed its prediction for ECB rate cuts from September to October, citing economic resilience and hopes for a US-EU tariff agreement [3] - Analysts from BNP Paribas believe that the ECB's optimistic outlook on the economic situation and potential trade agreements may lead to a pause in rate cuts [3] - High inflation and economic activity have supported the euro, with expectations that the ECB may maintain current rates unless significant economic deterioration occurs [3] Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - Barclays analysts predict that investors are unlikely to engage in large-scale dollar selling during the upcoming portfolio rebalancing at the end of the month [4] - The dollar's performance has been supported by high core inflation, resilient economic activity, and a strong labor market, despite pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve [4] - The positive momentum in US equities continues, while US bonds have underperformed, influencing investor behavior in the foreign exchange market [4]

聚酯板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250725 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 市场人士表示，美国特朗普政府准备向委内瑞拉国家石油公司的主要合作伙伴授予新的授权，由雪佛龙开始，允许他们在受到制裁的委内瑞 拉进行有限度的运营。 2 美国总统特朗普宣称已与日本达成贸易协议，对日本进口商品征收15%的关税，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元，并向美国开放汽车、农产品 等相关领域。另有关消息称，美国接近与欧盟达成贸易协议，将对欧洲进口商品征收15%的关税，双方将免除一些产品的关税，包括飞机、 烈酒和医疗设备。 3 国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈，这是继日内瓦和伦敦会谈后的第三次高级别磋商，美国财政部长贝森特、 商务部长卢特尼克和贸易代表格里尔共同参与。 4 EIA数据显示，上周美国原油库存减少320万桶，至4.19亿桶，是分析师预期减少160万桶的两倍。当周，美国汽油库存减少170万桶，此前市 场预期为减少90万桶；包括柴油和取暖油的馏分油库存增加290万桶，此前市场预期为减少10万桶。 5 24 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices fell for the second consecutive day due to signs of easing global trade tensions, reducing demand for safe-haven assets. As of 01:45 PM EST, spot gold decreased by 0.5% to $3,370.69 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures closed down 0.7% at $3,373.5 [1][3] - Market optimism regarding trade agreements, particularly between the U.S. and Japan, and potentially with the EU, has contributed to the decline in gold prices. A potential 15% baseline tariff on EU goods is being discussed, which may include exemptions [3] - The U.S. labor market remains stable despite a decline in hiring, as indicated by a surprising drop in initial jobless claims. Silver, palladium, and platinum also saw price declines, with silver down 0.7% to $39.02 per ounce, palladium down 3.5% to $1,234 per ounce, and platinum down 0.5% to $1,405.15 per ounce [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during the upcoming meeting on July 29-30, while the market is still processing expectations for a potential rate cut in September. Gold typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments [3] - The importance of reliable information sources for gold investors is emphasized, as timely and comprehensive data can aid in making informed trading decisions amidst market volatility [4]

Group 1 - The trade agreement between Japan and the United States involves a reduction of the "reciprocal tariff" rate from 25% to 15%, and the automotive tariff rate is also reduced to 15% [1][2] - Japan has committed to invest a total of $550 billion in key U.S. industries, purchase 100 Boeing aircraft, and increase its rice imports from the U.S. by 75% [2] - Despite the agreement, concerns remain in Japan regarding the limited impact on reducing the trade surplus with the U.S., and the possibility of further pressure from the Trump administration [2][6] Group 2 - Japanese automotive industry representatives express dissatisfaction with the new tariff rate, stating that 15% is still too high compared to the previous 2.5% rate [4] - Mitsubishi Motors reported a significant 97.5% decrease in net profit for the April to June period, attributing the decline to high tariffs [4] - Experts warn that the initial agreement does not adequately address the trade imbalance, and further pressure from the U.S. may continue [6][7]

Core Viewpoints - Recent developments in trade agreements are reducing global economic uncertainty, leading to a decrease in market risk aversion, which may result in short-term fluctuations in precious metals [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is increasingly influenced by political pressures, particularly from the Trump administration, which may lead to unexpected rate cuts and support for precious metals, especially silver [2] - Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 20 years, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases, indicating a shift in investment strategies towards gold as a reliable asset [3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - The sentiment in the precious metals market is currently influenced by the progress of trade agreements and the Federal Reserve's policy independence, with expectations of continued fluctuations in gold prices [1][2] - The historical performance of gold and silver indicates that gold prices are primarily driven by U.S. fiscal deficits and global risk events, while silver prices are more sensitive to expectations of Federal Reserve easing [2] Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Investment Trends - Central banks are increasingly adding gold to their reserves as a diversification strategy away from dollar-denominated assets, which supports the long-term upward trend in gold prices [3][4] - The demand for gold remains strong despite stock market rebounds, driven by concerns over government debt levels and a weaker dollar, which enhances the appeal of gold as an alternative currency asset [4]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9390, with a recent report showing a price of 9372 USD/oz, down 0.53% from the opening at 9300 USD/oz, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - The highest price reached today was 9447 USD/oz, while the lowest was 9290 USD/oz, suggesting volatility within the trading session [1] Group 2 - The EU is focusing on negotiations with the US despite plans for counter-tariffs, indicating positive progress in trade discussions [3] - A proposed framework similar to the US-Japan trade agreement may involve a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% tariff [3] - Key industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals may be affected, with potential tariff exemptions for certain sectors, although high tariffs on steel remain a contentious issue [3] - The EU may consider reducing some tariffs, such as the current 10% on car imports, as part of a "tariff for tariff" strategy [3] Group 3 - The silver market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with a support level established at 9300 and a potential resistance at 9550 [4] - Short-term trading is expected to remain within a high-level fluctuation range, with key levels to watch being 9300 for support and 9550 for resistance [4] - The market sentiment suggests caution against overly aggressive bullish positions, with a focus on potential breakout points for further movement [4]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心上移，其中 WTI9 月合约收盘上涨 0.78 美元至 66.03 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.20%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘上涨 0.67 美元至 69.18 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.98%。SC2509 以 507.1 元/桶收盘，上涨 2.8 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.56%。地缘政治紧张局势持续受关注。俄乌双方在伊 | | | | 斯坦布尔举行和谈讨论进一步交换战俘，但双方在停火条件和领 | | | | 导人会晤可能性上仍存在巨大分歧。另有两名行业消息人士称， | | | | 由于新规实施，外国油轮被暂时禁止在俄罗斯主要黑海港口装货， | | | 原油 | 这实际上停止了哈萨克斯坦通过部分由美国能源巨头持股的财团 | 震荡 | | | 出口石油。现货市场方面，亚太原油市场，9 月装拉布安原油的现 | | | | 货价差攀升，因为新加坡中质馏份油的炼油利润表现坚挺。9 月 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US economy shows a mixed picture with manufacturing in contraction and inflation pressure rising, while the EU and the US are in trade negotiations and the ECB maintains interest rates. Domestically, the stock and commodity markets are positive, the bond market is under pressure, and various commodities show different trends affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment [2][3] - The prices of precious metals are in回调 due to the expected easing of trade tensions; copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile; aluminum prices are likely to oscillate; alumina prices will stay in a short - term oscillation; zinc prices will adjust at a high level; lead prices will move horizontally; tin prices will oscillate at a high level; industrial silicon prices will be strongly oscillating; lithium carbonate prices will have a wide - range oscillation; nickel prices may oscillate strongly; crude oil prices will have their center of gravity lifted; steel prices will oscillate; iron ore prices will oscillate; and the prices of bean and rapeseed meal will have a wide - range oscillation, while palm oil prices may oscillate strongly [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][18][20][22][24][25][26][28] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI is 49.5 (in contraction), the service PMI is 55.2 (a new high for the year), inflation pressure rises, and business confidence drops. The EU and the US are close to a trade deal, but the EU has approved a 930 - billion - euro anti - tariff measure on US products. The ECB maintains interest rates, and the market's expectation of further rate cuts weakens [2] - Domestic: The A - share market breaks through 3600 points, with a trading volume of about 1.9 trillion yuan. The bond market is under pressure, and the 10Y and 30Y treasury bond rates rise to 1.74% and 1.95% respectively [3] Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fall 0.77% to $3371.3 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fall 0.55% to $39.285 per ounce. The expected easing of global trade tensions weakens the demand for hedging, putting pressure on precious metals [4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper slightly falls. The US manufacturing contraction and the approaching tariff deadline make the overseas capital market cautious. Freeport's second - quarter copper production is 43.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%. Copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile [6][7] Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closes at 20760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41%. The increase in the US dollar index and the weak US manufacturing PMI increase the pressure on aluminum prices. The inventory of aluminum ingots accumulates, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreases. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8][9] Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closes at 3355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.81%. The low - level warehouse receipt inventory provides support for alumina prices, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc has an intraday volatile and strong trend. The decrease in the position of an LME seat, the slight increase in LME inventory, and the slight discount of LME0 - 3 spot ease the squeeze - out concern. Zinc prices are expected to adjust at a high level [11][12] Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead moves horizontally. The high inventory pressure is not relieved, and the consumption improvement is insufficient. Lead prices are expected to move horizontally in the short term, and attention should be paid to consumption variables [13][14] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin oscillates at a high level. The decrease in the position of an LME seat eases the squeeze - out concern, but the rainy season in Southeast Asia may affect the transportation of tin ore in Myanmar. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon is strongly oscillating. The supply side is in a passive contraction state, and the demand side shows different trends. Supported by policies, the prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but the risk of high - level decline should be guarded against [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate runs strongly, and the spot price slightly rises. The market is affected by various news, and the price amplitude increases. The spot market is cold, and lithium prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term [18][19] Nickel - Nickel prices oscillate weakly. The supply of nickel ore is becoming more abundant, and the cost pressure of nickel iron still exists. The introduction of the price draft may make nickel prices oscillate strongly [20][21] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices oscillate. The short - term geopolitical risk cools down, the EIA crude oil inventory decreases more than expected, and the macro - sentiment is strengthening, pushing up the center of gravity of crude oil prices [22][23] Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillate. Multiple departments are promoting anti - involution competition rectification. The supply and demand of steel are in a weak balance. Steel prices are expected to oscillate [24] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The supply of iron ore is sufficient, and the cost increase due to the rise of coke prices suppresses the bargaining space of iron ore. The demand remains resilient. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [25] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal fall. The water - heat conditions in the US soybean - producing areas are good, and the export sales of new - crop soybeans are slow. Affected by the protein - reduction policy, the long - position funds reduce their positions, and the prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [26][27] Palm Oil - Palm oil prices may oscillate strongly. The production of Malaysian palm oil is in an increasing cycle, and the potential demand from countries like India provides support. The market expects future supply to tighten [28][29]

Core Points - The United States and Japan have reached a trade agreement that reduces the proposed 25% tariffs to 15% and opens Japanese markets to various U.S. products, including cars and agricultural goods [1][2] - Japan is set to invest $550 billion in the U.S. to rebuild and expand core industries, with 90% of the investment profits allocated to the U.S. [1][4] - The agreement includes Japan's commitment to purchase 100 Boeing aircraft and increase U.S. rice imports by 75%, along with an additional $8 billion in U.S. agricultural products [1][4] Summary by Sections Trade Agreement Details - The new 15% tariff is expected to take effect around August 1, according to Japan's chief trade negotiator [2] - Japan's total tariff on imported cars will decrease from 27.5% to 15%, with no quantity limits under the new rate [3] Investment Commitments - The $550 billion investment figure includes contributions from state financial institutions and is not a direct fiscal expenditure, requiring active participation from companies to utilize [4] - The profit distribution from investments is set at 90% for the U.S. and 10% for Japan, but specific project allocations may vary [4] Agricultural Imports - Japan plans to increase U.S. rice imports without setting fixed quotas, emphasizing that total rice import volumes will not increase [4] - The U.S. claims Japan will immediately increase rice imports by 75%, but Japan's agriculture minister stated that procurement decisions will remain autonomous [4] Defense Spending - The agreement reportedly includes a commitment for Japan to purchase additional U.S. military equipment, although this aspect is contested by Japanese officials who claim existing plans cover these needs [5][6] - There is a discrepancy in the interpretation of defense spending commitments, with Japan's negotiators including planned expenditures in the agreement to enhance perceived investment figures [6] Future Steps - Japan's Prime Minister indicated there are currently no plans to sign a formal written agreement, and both sides are expected to release a summary of their consensus soon [7][8] - The U.S. is expected to take administrative actions to implement the new tariffs, while Japan will consider its next steps accordingly [8]