Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a strong consolidation, with government bond futures mostly rising slightly and interbank bond yields generally declining by around 1 basis point. The central bank's net injection of 247 billion yuan indicates a clear intention to maintain a loose monetary policy, which is expected to support the funding environment despite external demand pressures [1][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.13% at 119.760, while the 10-year main contract remained flat at 108.855. The yields on major interbank bonds also saw slight declines, with the 10-year government bond yield down 0.25 basis points to 1.682% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.23% at 427.33 points, with a total transaction amount of 54.167 billion yuan. Notable declines were seen in several convertible bonds, while others experienced gains [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down 2.26 basis points to 4.506%. In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly retreated, while in the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain also decreased [3]. Primary Market - The results of the second local bond issuance in Liaoning Province showed a bidding multiple exceeding 28 times, with the 7-year bond yield at 1.67% and the 30-year bond yield at 2.12% [4]. Funding Environment - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total amount of 382 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 247 billion yuan for the day. The Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate declining while the 7-day rate increased [5]. Institutional Insights - Institutions suggest that ordinary financial bonds exhibit sufficient curve structure and high cost-effectiveness in the 2-5 year investment horizon. The demand for fixed-income assets is expected to outstrip supply in the coming months, potentially leading to further declines in interest rates [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: None - **Bearish**: Copper, Polycrystalline Silicon, Pure Lithium, Jiao Coal, Coke, BR Rubber, Pure Benzene, LPG - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Japanese Yen, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Urea, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's reaction to tariff impacts and policy support is waning, and in the absence of new catalysts, there are short - term risks of market fluctuations and adjustments [1]. - Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. - The risk of US Treasury bonds has eased, and gold prices may enter a period of oscillation, but the long - term upward trend remains [1]. - Various factors such as weak macro data, changes in supply and demand, and policy uncertainties are affecting the prices of different commodities, with most commodities expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: With the fading impact of tariffs and policy support, and the current rebound reaching the upper limit of the range, there is a short - term risk of oscillating adjustment in the absence of new catalysts [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. - **Gold**: The risk of US Treasury bonds has eased, and gold prices may enter a period of oscillation, but the long - term upward trend remains [1]. - **Japanese Yen**: It will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, but the medium - term upward space is limited [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak macro data and reduced downstream demand limit the upward space of copper prices, with a short - term risk of decline [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Low aluminum inventories support prices, but the upward space is limited as prices rise. For alumina, although the price is rising due to mine disturbances, the improvement in production profits may lead to复产, restricting the upward space [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Global trade frictions and policy uncertainties cause prices to oscillate in the short - term. Long - term, the supply of primary nickel is excessive, and stainless steel has supply pressure [1]. - **Tin**: Before the resumption of production at low - grade mines, the fundamentals of tin prices are strongly supported [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply remains high, it has entered a low - valuation range, and demand remains low [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Downstream production schedules are rapidly decreasing, futures premiums over spot prices, and warehouse receipts are increasing [1]. - **Pure Lithium**: Mine prices are continuously falling without signs of production cuts, and downstream buyers are not active [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The market is in a transition period from peak to off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns, and no clear upward price drivers [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that iron - water production has reached its peak, but there are no new supply - side developments, and attention should be paid to steel pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon has short - term supply - demand balance with high warehouse - receipt pressure; ferrosilicon's cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area have tightened supply - demand [1]. Building Materials - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about declining demand. Soda ash has good immediate demand due to many maintenance activities in May, but faces medium - term supply overcapacity and price pressure [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Palm oil is affected by factors such as Indonesian weather and US biodiesel proposals; soybean oil is affected by Argentine weather with limited impact; rapeseed oil is affected by potential tariff increases, but the impact has been mostly priced in [1]. - **Cotton**: There are short - term disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums, and long - term macro uncertainties. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - cane ratio and sugar production [1]. - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation in the medium - term, with short - term factors limiting the upward space of the futures price. Soybeans face pressure from concentrated arrivals and fast sowing progress, and low - valuation buying is recommended [1]. - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp port inventories are rising, with some improvement in white - cardboard demand. Logs have a pattern of loose supply and weak demand, and both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Hogs**: With the continuous restoration of hog inventories and increasing slaughter weights, the futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient supply, and the futures price is expected to remain stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, and Asphalt**: Crude oil and fuel oil are affected by factors such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation and OPEC+ production - increase news. Asphalt is affected by cost drag, inventory changes, and slow demand recovery [1]. - **Shanghai Rubber and BR Rubber**: Shanghai rubber is affected by factors such as rainfall and storage - purchase rumors. BR rubber's short - term upward sentiment has slowed, and there is a risk of long - term decline [1]. - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, and Short Fiber**: PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, ethylene glycol is in a de - stocking phase, and short - fiber costs are closely related to PTA [1]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The speculative demand for pure benzene has weakened, and styrene plants have increased production and are actively selling [1]. - **Urea and Methanol**: Urea demand is weak, and methanol is expected to oscillate at a low level, with attention to factors such as plant maintenance and imports [1]. - **PE, PP, and PVC**: PE's seasonal demand is weakening, PP's production has recovered, and PVC has a weak fundamental situation but is supported by macro factors [1]. - **Caustic Soda and LPG**: Caustic soda is affected by the alumina market, and LPG is expected to decline due to factors such as tariff relaxation and the off - season [1]. Others - The market has a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. For futures, it is recommended to try long - positions in the peak - season contracts with light positions and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Market Overview - The market trading volume remains at a medium-low level, with stock rotation occurring rapidly under the influence of existing funds [1] - Major indices showed slight declines this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.57%, Shenzhen Index down 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.47% [2] - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a significant drop of 3.68%, indicating a notable decline in micro-cap stocks [2] - The trading volume for micro-cap stocks approached the highest level since December 2023, indicating a crowded trading environment [2] Interest Rate Impact - On May 20, the central bank lowered the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) by 10 basis points, resulting in rates of 3% and 3.5% respectively [3] - Major state-owned banks collectively reduced deposit rates, with 1-year fixed deposits falling below 1% and 5-year deposits below 1.5% [3] - The decline in risk-free rates is expected to increase the value of companies, particularly those with high dividend yields [3] Investment Opportunities - High-quality assets are defined by several criteria: high profitability/dividend certainty, industry leadership with high barriers to entry, low PE ratios (below 20 or even 10), and a revenue structure primarily focused on domestic markets [3] - The current market environment suggests a potential style shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks, benefiting high-quality assets [3][4] - Investors are advised to focus on certainty in uncertain markets, with a preference for companies that have stable operating performance and dividends [4]

Group 1 - Major commercial banks have lowered RMB deposit rates, with the one-year fixed deposit rate falling below 1% for the first time, sparking discussions on investment and financial planning in a low-interest-rate environment [2] - The market had anticipated this decline in deposit rates, as the need for monetary policy to stimulate the economy and stabilize the housing market continues, leading to a decrease in loan rates and a historical low net interest margin of 1.43% for commercial banks [2] - The ongoing trend of declining interest rates will significantly impact investment and financial planning strategies [4] Group 2 - In the current low-interest-rate environment, traditional financial products that guarantee returns, such as fixed deposits and certain insurance products, offer limited yields, making them less suitable for investors seeking substantial returns [4] - The capital market is experiencing an "asset shortage," where investors struggle to obtain returns that match the risks they are taking, leading to a need for a shift in investment strategy [6] - A recommended investment approach is to extend the investment horizon and focus on long-term value growth, aligning with the national encouragement for "patient capital" to support new productive forces and high-quality development in the capital market [6] Group 3 - Options for investing as "patient capital" include investing in stocks or funds with a long-term perspective, avoiding short-term trading, and maintaining emotional stability during market fluctuations [8] - Another option is to purchase participating insurance, allowing insurance companies, which are skilled in long-term investments, to manage assets while ensuring capital preservation and potential high returns from economic recovery [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Report's Core View - Fundamental factors are unlikely to break the narrow - range fluctuation pattern of the bond market. The decline in deposit rates is a short - term positive for non - bank allocation demand. The bond market is reasonably priced compared to credit and other broad - spectrum interest rates, but has a lower cost - performance ratio compared to the stock market. Chinese bonds are a global interest - rate low - lying area. In the short term, continue to focus on non - bank allocation, PMI data, and bond supply. The judgment that the 10 - year Treasury bond will fluctuate in the range of 1.5% - 1.8% remains unchanged. [6] - In terms of operations, continue to recommend 3 - and 5 - year credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, and seek opportunities for spread compression through short - end credit downgrading and long - end high - grade bonds. Long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds are more suitable for trading than allocation, and continue to buy on dips. The cost - performance ratio of the previously recommended ultra - long local bonds has slightly weakened, while that of policy - financial bonds has slightly increased. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Strategy View: Looking for Opportunities along the Bond Market Pricing System - Last week, the funding situation was stable. Economic data was released, and the cuts in deposit rates and LPR were implemented. The auction result of the 50 - year Treasury bond was poor, and yields fluctuated within a narrow range. Throughout the week, the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rose 1BP to 1.69% compared to the previous week, the 10 - year CDB bond yield fell 1BP to 1.74%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at 1.92%. The 10 - 1 - year term spread widened, and credit spreads remained largely unchanged. [10] - The bond market has been in a narrow - range fluctuation pattern since the suspension of Sino - US tariffs. Last week's deposit - rate cut failed to break the bond - market equilibrium. Currently, investors generally believe that the bond market has a high probability of winning but a low odds ratio. The report explores bond - market pricing from multiple dimensions. [11] Comparison with Credit and Other Broad - Spectrum Interest Rates - The pricing of the bond market is basically reasonable. There is a transmission between bonds and deposits/loans through the price - comparison effect and institutional behavior. After the recent LPR cut, some banks maintained the original 3% mortgage rate for new mortgages. If 3% is the bottom line for mortgage rates, the 30 - year Treasury bond rate may have also bottomed out. Currently, the 30 - year Treasury bond is 2BP higher than the after - tax mortgage rate, with limited upside. [12][13] - In practice, three factors prevent a simple comparison between bonds and loans: different availability of the two types of assets, the influence of non - bank trading desks not being considered, and banks' asset - allocation decisions being affected by multiple factors other than just returns. The cut in deposit rates directly benefits non - bank bond allocation. In the future, banks will face increased difficulty in liability management. [14][15] Comparison with Overseas Markets - Chinese bonds have become a global interest - rate low - lying area, but the short - term adjustment risk is limited. Recently, the sharp rise in US and Japanese bond yields has attracted global attention. The root causes are the reshaping of the global financial order, high debt levels, tight monetary policies, and large - scale long - bond auctions. [2] - China's interest rates are at a global low, especially at the ultra - long end. However, there is no need to worry about Chinese bond yields rising in tandem with overseas markets in the short term, as the influence of overseas interest rates on the Chinese bond market is limited. In the process of global capital reallocation, Chinese bonds and stocks may be relatively beneficiary assets. In the long run (2 - 3 years), there are concerns about the repricing of term spreads. [2][22][26] Comparison with the Stock Market - The bond market has a lower cost - performance ratio compared to the stock market. Currently, the dividend yields of the CSI 300, the dividend index, and the Hang Seng High - Dividend Index are approximately 3.4%, 6.7%, and 8% respectively. Considering the tax - exemption effect of insurance investments in Hong Kong stocks, their value far exceeds that of investing in ultra - long bonds. [3] - In the past two years, the imbalance in the cost - performance ratio between stocks and bonds has persisted. The core reason is that stocks carry price - fluctuation risks while offering high dividends. If the stock market can maintain an upward - trending and less - volatile pattern, there is a possibility of bond - market funds gradually flowing into the stock market to achieve a balance between stocks and bonds. [3] Comparison of Spreads among Bond Market Varieties - Regarding the pricing model of policy rates → funds → short - end → long - end, currently, the role of the MLF policy rate has diminished, and OMO is the most important pricing anchor in the bond market. However, the current term spreads are relatively flat, making it difficult to price long - term and ultra - long - term bonds according to historical rules. In the future, it is difficult for the yield - curve shape to steepen trendily, and investors should focus on finding relative opportunities. [31][32] - In terms of credit spreads, in the context of debt resolution and stricter urban - investment supervision in recent years, the "scarcity of credit assets" has become more prominent. Credit spreads still have room for compression. Specifically, avoid 1 - year ordinary credit bonds for now; 3 - 5 - year credit spreads still offer good value, and high - grade (AAA) credit spreads over 5 years are relatively attractive. Currently, inter - bank certificates of deposit have a better cost - performance ratio than short - term credit bonds, but there may be supply - demand disturbances at certain times. [33][34] - The spreads among bond varieties have significantly compressed. Low - liquidity policy - financial bonds have a slightly better cost - performance ratio, while the cost - performance ratio of local bonds has slightly weakened. [40] This Week's Operation Suggestions - Currently, the bond - market pricing is reasonable compared to credit and other broad - spectrum interest rates, but has a lower cost - performance ratio compared to overseas markets and the stock market. The fundamentals are still in a state of differentiation and bottom - grinding. The decline in deposit rates is positive for non - bank allocation demand. The long - term trend of the bond market has not reversed, but the trading space is limited, and it remains in a narrow - range fluctuation pattern in the short term. [42] - The market lacks major catalysts, so only short - term information such as funds and institutional behavior can be traded. This week, pay attention to PMI and credit - demand data, which are expected to be relatively strong and slightly negative for bonds. In terms of funds, as this week enters the end - of - month trading period, the funding center may rise slightly, but the central bank is expected to provide active support. In terms of institutional behavior, the deposit - rate cut last week led to an increase in inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased subscriptions of funds by wealth - management products, indicating that deposit migration is occurring, providing real - world support for bond - market allocation demand. [42] - In the medium term, the decline in broad - spectrum interest rates will have a certain impact on the bond market. The low of the 10 - year Treasury bond this year is expected to be around 1.5%, but it may be difficult to break through in the second quarter. The upper limit is expected to be between 1.7% - 1.8%. Therefore, if there is further adjustment from the current level, consider entering the market for allocation. [42] - In terms of operations, continue to recommend 3 - and 5 - year credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, and seek opportunities for spread compression through short - end credit downgrading and long - end high - grade bonds. The narrow - range fluctuation pattern of long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, so continue to buy on dips. The cost - performance ratio of the previously recommended ultra - long local bonds has slightly weakened, while that of policy - financial bonds has slightly increased. Inter - bank certificates of deposit are initially in the allocation range, but may fluctuate at relatively high levels due to liability - side disturbances. [44] This Week's Core Focus This week, focus on China's industrial - enterprise profits in April, the official manufacturing PMI in May, the euro - zone economic sentiment index in May, the Fed's monetary - policy meeting minutes in May, the US PCE in April, and the end - of - month funding situation. [45]

REITs 业 研 试点持有型不动产 ABS 扩募，消费 REITs 表现持续 优异 2025 年 05 月 25 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 沪深300 中证REITs全收益 相关研究报告 《地方政策积极支持公募 REITs 产 品发行，消费 REITs 表现持续优异 —行业周报》-2025.5.18 duzhiyuan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070064 试点持有型不动产 ABS 扩募，消费 REITs 表现持续优异 2025 年第 21 周，中证 REITs（收盘）指数为 869.19，同比上涨 9.27%，环比上 涨 1.19%；中证 REITs 全收益指数 1089.72，同比上涨 16.22%，环比上涨 1.2%。 本周 REITs 市场交易规模成交量达 6.87 亿份，同比增长 44.33%；成交额达 31.21 亿元，同比增长 57.95%；区间换手率 3.58%，同比下降 6.77%。本周保障房、环 保、高速公路、产业园区、仓储物流、能源、消费类 REI ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2][5] Core Viewpoints - The market for REITs is expected to continue to perform well due to supportive policies and the anticipated entry of social security and pension funds, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of allocations in this sector [5][6] - The market trading volume for REITs reached 687 million shares, a year-on-year increase of 44.33%, with a transaction value of 3.121 billion yuan, up 57.95% year-on-year [5][28] - The China Securities REITs (closing) index rose to 869.19, a year-on-year increase of 9.27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.19% [5][16] Summary by Sections 1. REITs Role and Expansion - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need for a diversified funding mechanism for urban renewal projects, highlighting the role of REITs in infrastructure investment [6][14] 2. Market Review - The China Securities REITs (closing) index increased by 1.19% quarter-on-quarter, with a cumulative increase of 14.91% since the beginning of 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.76% [16][21] - The China Securities REITs total return index rose by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a cumulative increase of 26.45% since the beginning of 2024, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.3% [21][26] 3. Weekly Performance - Weekly performance for various REIT sectors showed mixed results, with consumer REITs increasing by 1.04% and a monthly increase of 7.58% [39][56] - The weekly and monthly performance for other sectors included: affordable housing (+0.83% weekly, +6.32% monthly), environmental (-0.05% weekly, -0.03% monthly), and logistics (+1.58% weekly, +5.81% monthly) [39][56] 4. Active Market for New REITs - There are currently 14 REIT funds awaiting listing, indicating a vibrant issuance market [8][39] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry, suggesting favorable conditions for investment in REITs [5][39]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of rental housing REITs has shown significant excess returns, supported by rental price advantages and demand from end consumers, indicating a strong potential for stable operations through 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT triggered trading halts twice within its first week of listing due to high price increases, reaching 3.554 yuan per share and 3.909 yuan per share, respectively [2][3]. - The REITs market has demonstrated strong performance, with six rental housing REITs showing monthly increases of over 18% since the second half of 2024, peaking at a 47% increase in January 2025 [4][7]. Group 2: Investment Demand - The Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT saw an unprecedented oversubscription of 222.64 times during its issuance phase, indicating strong investor interest [3][4]. - The demand for rental housing REITs is driven by a combination of stable rental income, low-risk profiles, and favorable regulatory support, making them attractive to institutional investors [4][6]. Group 3: Underlying Asset Value - The underlying assets of leading REITs are concentrated in prime business districts and high-tech industrial zones, enhancing their core value due to their unique locations [6]. - The operational efficiency of these REITs is notable, with average occupancy rates maintained between 92% and 97%, significantly higher than industry averages [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for further expansion in the rental housing REITs sector is widely recognized, with predictions indicating that the overall issuance scale could exceed 25 billion yuan by 2025 [7]. - The market for rental housing REITs is expected to remain active, driven by a continuous influx of new assets and the need for original stakeholders to monetize their investments [7].

Group 1 - The first batch of pilot reforms for long-term investment of insurance funds is set at 50 billion, the second batch at 112 billion, and a third batch of 60 billion is pending approval, totaling 222 billion [1] - The total scale of insurance funds is projected to reach 34.93 trillion by the end of 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 16% [1] - The unique operational logic of insurance funds, characterized by long-term and stable attributes, significantly influences asset allocation strategies and has a profound impact on the development of the stock market [1] Group 2 - The primary issue in the Chinese stock market is the short-term nature of funding, which leads to volatility, while the long-term nature of insurance funds effectively addresses this problem [2] - The combination of insurance funds and other long-term capital is expected to transform the short-term funding characteristics of the Chinese stock market, potentially leading to a new phase of stable and healthy development [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2021, the logic of the "asset shortage" in the bond market is not applicable this year. Instead, the bond market presents a "liability shortage." The liability gap and structure are the main lines of bond market trading this year [2][5][12]. - The bond market is unlikely to rise trend - wise. Only continuous negative carry can drive the trend - wise correction of long - term interest rates. The probability of a tightening of capital prices in the second quarter is not high, and the market interest rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.5% - 1.6% [2][8][22]. - The bond market has no obvious odds recently. A 10bp positive carry can boost the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio by about 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points. The current positive carry amplitude is insufficient, restricting the market's enthusiasm for leveraging [2][8][30]. - It is recommended to allocate when the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is above 1.65% and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield is above 1.9%. Institutions with stable liabilities can appropriately focus on the coupon opportunities of credit bonds with a term of more than 3 years [2][8][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 From "Asset Shortage" to "Liability Shortage", Bond Market Volatility - Before 2024, the "asset shortage" was the main line of the bond market. Due to the downward pressure on the real estate industry and the establishment of the regulatory red line for local implicit debt, credit expansion was constrained. Since this year, with the adjustment of the social financing structure and the relative stability of credit, the "asset shortage" is no longer the main contradiction. The supply of government bonds has increased, and the social financing growth rate has rebounded to 8.7% in April [5][12]. - While the asset supply has increased, the bond market faces a "liability shortage." The central bank's attitude is not the only source of liability pressure. Currently, the market style is more trading - oriented, lacking stable - liability configuration forces. Insurance's premium income growth has declined significantly this year, and its trading attribute has increased; wealth management is undergoing rectification, reducing the allocation of less - liquid credit bonds; public funds have a strong wait - and - see sentiment [8][19]. 3.2 Difficulty in Trend - wise Market, Focus on Curve Trading Opportunities - The bond market is difficult to rise trend - wise. In a relatively stable fundamental situation, only continuous negative carry can drive the trend - wise correction of long - term interest rates. The current fundamental situation is relatively stable, but the real interest rate is high, and there is still uncertainty in the fundamental recovery. The probability of a tightening of capital prices in the second quarter is not high [8][22]. - The bond market has no obvious odds recently. Although the bond market has returned to the positive carry range, the amplitude is insufficient, restricting the market's enthusiasm for leveraging. A 10bp increase in carry can increase the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio by 0.14 and 0.21 percentage points respectively. Since May, the average monthly inter - bank bond market leverage ratio has increased by about 0.2 percentage points compared with April [8][30]. - Before the bond market shows sufficient odds, it is difficult to have a trend - wise market. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will fluctuate around 1.6% - 1.7%. It is recommended to capture trading opportunities along the yield curve. Institutions with stable liabilities can focus on the coupon opportunities of credit bonds with a term of more than 3 years [8][34].