季节性需求主导，包装纸走势或前低后高 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳，CFA/FRM（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0002332 石忆宁（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03144064 日期：2025年6月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 核心结论：下半年走势前低后高，需求季节性为主要驱动 ➢ 供给压力仍然偏高，需求关注季节性变化。从供给端来看，瓦楞纸和箱板纸下半年产能投放压力仍然偏高，当前的利润水平对于产能 利用率可以形成一定支撑，原料端的废纸价格仍然处于震荡寻底的过程中。从需求端来看，瓦楞纸和箱板纸的需求具有明显的季节性， 消费呈现出前低后高，同比持续增长的趋势，但是流通环节库存水平较高或在一定程度上形成掣肘，潜在预期差来源于中美贸易政策 的变化。从价格角度来看，我们认为，需求仍然是主导因素，预计年内瓦楞纸和箱板纸价格前低后高。从产业链利润分配来看，与木 浆系成品纸不同的是，由于上游废纸回收行业较为分散，包装纸产业链话语权集中在下游，原料价格的上涨需要依赖于下游产成品价 格的好转，但是受产能投放速度大于需求 ...

油脂粕类6月报： 油脂震荡运行，粕类反弹空间有限 2025年5月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点策略 0203 2025年5月油脂粕类行情回顾 油脂油料基本面分析 01 观点策略 观点策略 | | | 预计2025/26年度全球大豆延续供应宽松，虽然美豆种植面积减少，产量下降，但巴西大豆产量可能创纪录高位。目前美国大 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 豆主产区天气良好，大豆种植进度偏快。巴西大豆收割完成，处于出口高峰期，CNF升贴水小幅下降，阿根廷大豆收割进度较慢， | | | | 预计后续降雨量减少，大豆收割加快推进。国内大豆大量到港，周度压榨量超200万吨，豆油逐渐累库。目前美豆生长情况较好， | | | | 美国生柴政策可能不及预期，CBOT大豆和豆油震荡偏弱，后续关注美豆主产区天气和美国生柴政策。 | | | 核心 | 棕榈油处于季节性增产期，但高频数据显示马来西亚5月份棕榈油产量仅小幅增加，而出口需求改善，预示5月份马来西亚棕 | | | 逻辑 | 榈油累库幅度较小。印度植物油库存偏低，存在进口需求，提振马棕出口。国内棕榈油库存维持低位，预计后续进口量逐渐增加。 | | ...

摘 要： 供需关系：当前浮法玻璃企业利润不佳，本周有产线存放水预 期，暂无点火及出玻璃的情况下，周度产量预计下降。浮法玻璃终端 需求仍偏弱，下游深加工企业订单偏弱，浮法玻璃企业库存小幅下降。 预计玻璃价格近期震荡偏弱，09合约上方压力1000一线。建议短线高 抛低吸，注意止损。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：蒯三可 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货从业资格号：F03040522 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 风险提示：下游深加工企业订单回升超预期缓慢 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 企业库存较稳，需求仍偏弱 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 | 第1章 | 行情回顾 | | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第2章 | 价格影响因素分析 | | 5 | | 第3章 | 行情展 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply - demand relationship of soda ash is expected to be loose. The price of soda ash is predicted to be weak with fluctuations in the near term. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is 1235. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22]. 3) Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market weakened steadily, with prices declining slightly. There was a lack of positive support in the market, and the futures price adjusted at a low level. At the beginning of the week, some enterprises lowered prices due to increased supply. Towards the weekend, the news of Alxa's maintenance eased the industry sentiment, and the market was in a cautious wait - and - see mode [8]. - The weekly domestic soda ash production was 685,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,200 tons or 3.19%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises were less than 9 days, showing a downward trend [8]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply Side Analysis - Supply Expected to Increase Slightly**: As of May 29, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The expected capacity utilization rate this week is over 79%. The theoretical profit of the soda ash by the dual - ton soda ash method was 215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was 67.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.75% [11]. - **Demand Side Analysis - Downstream Demand of Soda Ash Expected to be Weakly Stable**: As of May 29, there were 102 in - production kilns for photovoltaic glass, with a daily melting volume of 98,780 tons. The industry inventory days increased by 0.58 days. There were no new kiln investment or cold - repair plans this week, and the supply is expected to remain stable. The production of float glass was 1.1041 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. Due to the expected water storage of production lines, the weekly output is expected to decline [15]. - **Inventory Analysis - Inventory of Soda Ash Enterprises Expected to Remain High**: As of May 29, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52,500 tons or 3.13%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 818,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 806,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons [18]. 2.2 Position Analysis As of May 30, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 994,153, a decrease of 29,228, and the short positions were 1,238,089, a decrease of 35,074. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current production of soda ash is stable at a high level with average profit, and the production is expected to increase slightly this week. The downstream demand of soda ash is expected to be weakly stable. The production of float glass is expected to decline, while the supply of photovoltaic glass remains stable, and the inventory continues to rise. Under the expected loose supply - demand situation, it is difficult for the high - level inventory of soda ash enterprises to continue to decline [22]. - The price of soda ash is expected to be weak with fluctuations in the near term. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is 1235. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22].

Core Insights - The egg prices are experiencing a weak trend due to seasonal demand decline and supply pressure, with average prices in major production areas showing a downward trend [1][4] - As of June 3, the national average egg prices in various regions are reported, with notable prices in Shandong at 6.90 yuan/kg and Fujian at 7.00 yuan/kg [2] - The futures market shows a decline in egg futures, with the main contract closing at 2897.00 yuan/500 kg, down 1.16% [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of the end of May, the monthly sales volume of eggs in major consumption areas is 37,200 tons, a decrease of 5.68% compared to April [3] - The inventory levels in the production and circulation stages are at historically low levels, with production inventory at 0.98 days and circulation inventory at 1.07 days [3] - The number of laying hens as of May 2025 is 1.334 billion, showing a slight increase compared to previous months, indicating a high supply level [3] Market Dynamics - The firm corn prices are providing cost support for egg production, while the current egg prices are at a low level for the year, leading to replenishment demand in the market [4] - High levels of laying hen inventory and increased production pressure from newly added hens are contributing to a sufficient supply of eggs [4] - The impact of hot and humid weather is raising storage costs for eggs, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream distributors [4]

研究员：漆建华 咨询证号（Z0017731） 苹果日报 撰写品种：苹果 撰写时间 2025.5.30 回顾周期：日报 一、期货行情回顾 图1：苹果AP2510 合约走势图 图片来源：国金期货行情软件 截至今日收盘，苹果期货小幅下跌，当日苹果期货主力 AP2510 合约开盘价 7640 元/吨，最高价 7678 元/吨,最低价 7592 元/吨，当日收盘价为 7675 元/吨，当日结算 价为 7636 元/吨，和昨天相比，今日结算价下跌 17 元/吨，今日成交量为 53199 手， 和昨天相比下降 9306 手，持仓 105238 手，较昨日减少 1615 手。 二、现货基本面情况 产区行情:5 月 30 日，山东沂源产区苹果库内 70#统货最低价 2.00 元/斤，最高价 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 2.80 元/斤，中间价 2.40 元/斤，中间价环比持平。75#统货最低价 2.80 元/斤，最高 价 3.50 元/斤，中间价 3.2 元/斤，中间价环比持平。次果最低价 0.80 元/斤，最高价 1.30 元/斤， ...

截止到2025年5月30日（第22周），国内饲料企业豆粕库存天数（物理库存天数）为5.99天，较5月23日 增加0.25天，增幅4.23%，较去年同期减少12.19%。 6月3日，大商所豆粕期货仓单26598手，环比上个交易日持平。 分析观点： （6月3日）全国豆粕价格一览表 规格 报价 报价类型 交货地 交易商 用途:饲料用 ;工艺:带皮 ;粗蛋白质≥(%):43.0 ; 2900元/吨 市场价 北京 北京豆粕市场 用途:饲料用 ;工艺:带皮 ;粗蛋白质≥(%):43.0 ; 2870元/吨 市场价 天津 天津豆粕市场 期货市场上看，6月3日收盘，豆粕期货主力合约报2935.00元/吨，跌幅1.05%，最高触及2955.00元/吨， 最低下探2927.00元/吨，日内成交量达1140522手。 【市场资讯】 数据显示，6月3日各地区豆粕现货价格报价2929.14元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（2935.00元/吨）贴水 5.86元/吨。 国投安信期货研报：据中国商务部消息，商务部新闻发言人表示，美方在日内瓦经贸会谈后，陆续新增 出台多项对华歧视性限制措施，无端指责中方违反共识，这严重背离事实。中方坚决拒绝无理指 ...

光期研究 2 0 2 5年6月P X & P T A & M E G 策略报告 2 0 2 5 年 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S PX&PTA&MEG：检修季进入尾声，需求负反馈逐步显现 p 2 | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | | 1、PX&PTA&MEG价格：跟随原油价格震荡 | | | 2、PX&PTA&MEG供应情况：关注装置检修落实情况 | | | 3、PX&PTA&MEG进出口情况：全球贸易担忧情绪浓厚 | | | 4、PX&PTA&MEG库存情况：下游原料库存回升 | | | 5、聚酯需求情况：终端需求表现不及预期 | | | 6、PX&PTA&MEG持仓情况 | | 图表：PTA主力期货收盘价（单位：元/吨） 图表：MEG主力期货收盘价（元/吨） 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 2022/01/03 2023/01/03 2024/01/03 2025/01/03 PTA 3500 4000 4500 5000 550 ...

光期研究 见微知著 铁合金策略月报 2025 年 0 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 锰 硅 供应：5月锰硅产量环比下降，但近两周产量止跌回升，宁夏地区产量仍维持低位。据铁合金在线，5月锰硅总产量约为77.89万吨，较 4月减少6.33万吨。其中硅锰6517产量约为69万吨，较4月减少4万吨左右。据钢联数据，截止5月30日当周，锰硅周产量为16.99万吨，周环比 增加2.86%，连续两周环比增加。内蒙古、广西、云南地区锰硅企业开工率环比增加，宁夏地区开工率仍环比下降。 需求：钢招持续进行，价格继续走弱，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值与钢厂锰硅库存均处历史同期偏低水平。近期钢招价格已经跌破 5700元/吨，6月主流钢招尚未启动，持续关注。终端需求表现相对偏弱，预计钢厂锰硅需求量当周值及钢厂锰硅库存偏低现状将维持较长 时间。 库存：样本企业库存环比下降，但绝对值依旧偏高。截止5月23日当周，63家样本企业库存20.11万吨，环比下降6000吨，但仍处于近 年来同期偏高水平，同比增加4.16万吨。 成本：港口锰矿库存逐 ...

光期研究 见微知著 棉 花 策 略 月 报 2 0 2 5 年 0 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：基本面驱动有限，区间略偏弱运行为主 库存端：棉花商业库存环比下降，目前位于近年来同期低位水平，纺企原材料库存持稳，织厂原料库存储备下降，产成品库存累积。 p 2 棉花：基本面驱动有限，区间略偏弱运行为主 总 结 供应端：2025/26年度全球棉花产量预计变化有限，巴西棉花产量再创历史新高，美国棉花产量预计同比持平，中国棉花继续丰产概率较大。 1、USDA5月报预计2025/26年度全球棉花产量为2565.1万吨，同比下降71万吨，降幅为2.7%。2、USDA5月报预计2025/26年度中国棉花产量为631.4万吨，同比下降65.3 万吨，降幅为9.4%，市场认为USDA过于低估2025/26年度中国棉花产量预计值，最终产量或同比基本持平。3、2025/26年度巴西棉花产量预估为397.4万吨，同比增加 7.4%；美国棉花产量预计值为315.7万吨，同比增加0.6%。4、USDA5月报预计2025/26年 ...