今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】5月14日，山东港口进口铁矿价格较上一 工作日价格偏强运行，累计上涨10-15。目前PB粉主流在778- 780；超特粉主流在645附近；PB块主流在915附近。评：主力期 价持续上行，量仓扩大。现阶段，得益于市场情绪回暖，贴水 修复逻辑支撑下矿价强势上涨，短期维持偏强运行态势，但矿 石需求趋于触顶，且供应维持高位，基本面仍易转弱，上行驱 动不强，高位谨慎看涨，谨防逻辑切换至现实端。 【短评-原油】欧佩克月报显示，4月份，OPEC原油总产量 下降6.2万桶/日，至2671万桶/日，而"欧佩克+"国家总产量 下降10.6万桶/日，至4092万桶/日。哈萨克斯坦4月份石油产量 下降4.1万桶/日，至182万桶/日；欧佩克表示，2025年，欧佩 克+以外国家的供应量将增加约80万桶/日，低于上月预测的90 万桶/日；OPEC预计2025年石油需求将增加130万桶/日，2026年 增加128万桶/日，这一预测高于国际能源署估计的72.6万桶/ 日。评：欧佩克同意增加供应的八个国家上个月总共只增加了 2.5万桶/日，远低于计划的13.8万桶/日，该组织对全球贸易形 势的发展持 ...

策略 中性 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-15 市场成交略有好转 铅价震荡走强 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-05-14，LME铅现货升水为-3.71美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16750元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-35.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨 至16800元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16750元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化-25元/吨至16800元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10300元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10200元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10550元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-14，沪铅主力合约开于16930元/吨，收于16935元/吨，较前一交易日变化-35元/吨，全天交易日 成交32590手，较前一交易日变化5664手，全天交易日持仓30725手，手较前一交易日变化230手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16980元/吨，最低点达到16835元/ ...

冉学东 中美贸易谈判一路披荆斩棘，轻舟已过万重山。 美国政府5月12日发布行政命令称，自5月14日起，通过邮政服务从中国寄送价值不超过800美元的商品，税率将从 120%降至54%。 5月10日至11日，中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦举行。经过双方的共同努力，此次会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设 性，达成重要共识，取得实质性进展。这个利好对于国际金融市场而言是超预期的，市场报以积极回应，就汇率 市场而言，美元大幅升值，同时人民币也大幅升值。 5月12日当天美元指数上涨1.73%，人民币汇率上涨0.56%，5月13日截至12点人民币升值0.20%，连破几个整数关 口到了7.18525，而美元指数小幅下行0.21%。5月12日，人民币和美元联袂上涨的局面是比较少见的。 从目前权威媒体透露的信息来看，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了 共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施 24%的反制关税。 未来还将对一些重要议题进行磋商，主要是针对暂缓的24%关税部分；二是芬太尼问题谈判问题，当然还可能针 对具体的非税壁垒、汇率水平等进 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **U.S. inflation data** for April and its implications on trade negotiations, particularly with **China**. The focus is on the impact of tariffs on inflation and the broader economic outlook. Core Insights and Arguments - **Inflation Trends**: April's CPI data indicates moderate inflation, with energy prices rising due to increases in natural gas and electricity, offsetting some declines in oil prices. Retail oil prices remain stable, but the processing and distribution sectors face significant price pressures [1][2]. - **Core Goods Performance**: The overall month-on-month growth rate for core goods in April was approximately 0.06%, indicating no significant tariff pressure. However, prices for goods closely related to exports from China, such as entertainment products, sports goods, and toys, have shown notable rebounds. Additionally, furniture and household goods have also seen expanded month-on-month growth rates, suggesting that tariffs on Chinese imports are beginning to exert supply-side pressure [1][2][4]. - **Core Services Resilience**: Rent remains resilient, contributing to the rise in core service inflation. In contrast, other service categories, including entertainment, airfare, and hotel prices, continue to decline, indicating a cooling in the service sector and labor market [1][3]. - **Tariff Impact on Inflation**: The transmission of tariffs to inflation remains unclear, but merchants are adjusting prices in response to disrupted expectations. The outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations will be a critical variable affecting this transmission process. Current tariff levels are approaching the peak seen during the Great Depression, raising concerns about stagflation risks in the U.S. [1][3][4]. - **Trade Negotiations**: The U.S.-China trade negotiations are highlighted as a significant focus for the future, especially for consumer goods heavily reliant on Chinese imports. The imposition of higher tariffs on these goods will likely have a direct impact on consumer prices, such as CPI and PCE. The U.S. has imposed higher tariffs on Chinese goods compared to other regions, making the negotiation outcomes crucial for future economic pressure transmission [4][5]. Additional Important Content - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: The Federal Reserve remains in an observation phase, with no significant issues in hard data like non-farm payrolls or GDP. If June's non-farm data shows resilience, the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025 may be low, although the market anticipates potential cuts starting in September [2][3]. - **Potential Economic Impacts**: If tariffs continue to suppress consumer purchasing power, this could further affect service demand and employment growth. The balance between trade policy changes and economic performance will be critical for the Federal Reserve's future decisions [3][4].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 14 日 热点品种 PVC： 上游电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC 开工率环比增加 1.01 个百分点至 80.34%， PVC 开工率继续增加，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。五一节后，PVC 下游开工有 所回升，但同比往年仍偏低，采购较为谨慎。印度反倾销政策不利于国内 PVC 的 出口，印度将 BIS 政策再次延期六个月至 2025 年 6 月 24 日执行，中国台湾台塑 5 月份报价稳定，出口高价成交受阻，但低价出口交付较好。上周社会库存略有 下降，只是目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025 年 1-3 月份，房地产数据略有 改善，只是同比仍是负数，且新开工与竣工面积同比降幅仍较大。五一假期过后， 30 大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比小幅回升，但仍是历年同期偏低水平，关 注房地产利好政策能否提振商品房销售。目前下游积极性一般，现货跟跌，09 基 差偏低。春检过半，据统计春检规模不及去年同期，近期开工率持续反弹，需求 未实质性改善之前 PVC 压 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations. The US announced that the annual rate of April CPI was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4%, the lowest since February 2021, and the core CPI of 2.8% was flat with the expected and previous values. After the data release, the market reaction was mild, and the impact of tariffs has not been reflected yet [1]. - Recent trade and geopolitical negotiations have reduced the market's bets on a US economic recession, causing the gold price to give back its previous risk premium. The international gold price is in an adjustment process, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support at $3200 per ounce [1]. - The market generally expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in September. Although the current inflation pressure is not high, inflation may rise again in the next few months as the tariff effect emerges. This expectation is prompting more investors to use gold as a tool to hedge against inflation [2]. - Gold faces three key variables: the follow - up progress of China - US trade negotiations, the Fed's monetary policy direction, and global geopolitical risks [2]. Summary by Related Aspects CPI Data - The US April CPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4%, and the core CPI was 2.8%, flat with the expected and previous values. The April CPI rose only 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3% [1][2]. Market Expectations - The market generally expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in September [2]. Gold Variables - Variables affecting gold include the follow - up progress of China - US trade negotiations, the Fed's monetary policy direction, and global geopolitical risks such as the evolution of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the India - Pakistan conflict [2]. Gold Price Movement - The international gold price is in an adjustment process, and attention should be paid to the support at $3200 per ounce [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the terminal consumption of lead batteries remains weak, some manufacturers continue to consume inventory, and raw material procurement stays low. As it is currently the off - season for consumption, lead prices may maintain a relatively weak pattern. However, due to the significant progress in Sino - US trade negotiations and improved market sentiment, lead prices may also maintain a relatively resilient pattern driven by the overall non - ferrous metals sector. For now, the operation strategy is to buy low and sell high [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was $5.95 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,750 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan per ton to - 20.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by - 25 yuan per ton to 16,775 yuan per ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by - 50 yuan per ton to 16,750 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by - 50 yuan per ton to 16,825 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,300 yuan per ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries increased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,200 yuan per ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries increased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,550 yuan per ton [1] Futures Market - On May 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,940 yuan per ton and closed at 16,970 yuan per ton, a decrease of 25 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 26,926 lots, a decrease of 15,696 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 30,495 lots, a decrease of 2,814 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,000 yuan per ton and the lowest point reaching 16,895 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,930 yuan per ton and closed at 16,980 yuan per ton, a 0.18% increase compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day. Shanghai lead maintained a relatively strong oscillation. Sellers were active in selling, and the premium in quotes increased. At the same time, the premium of the ex - factory supply of electrolytic lead smelters to Shanghai lead further widened, with a few quotes approaching a discount of 200 yuan per ton. The circulating supply of recycled refined lead was limited, with quotes at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead price, and a few premium quotes still existed. Downstream enterprises were highly cautious and made few inquiries, resulting in a sluggish transaction in the retail market [2] Inventory - On May 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 47,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 253,175 tons, an increase of 1,375 tons compared to the previous trading day [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, trading around $3255 per ounce, with a significant buying interest emerging after a dip to $3207.30 per ounce, indicating strong investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a slight easing of inflation pressures, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease from 2.4% to 2.3%, which is below expectations [3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8% to 100.98, contrasting with the rise in gold prices, reaffirming the negative correlation between the dollar's performance and gold prices [3] Group 2 - The outlook for gold is influenced by three key variables: the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and global geopolitical risks, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation and India-Pakistan tensions [4] - The easing of tariffs is viewed positively, suggesting that trade resumption with China may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its current course and gradually resume rate cuts later this year [4] - Investors are advised to pay attention to upcoming speeches from several Federal Reserve officials and the discussions at the NATO informal meeting regarding security priorities and defense investments [4]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】05月05日-05月11日Mysteel澳洲巴西铁矿 发运总量2422.5万吨，环比减少117.9万吨。澳洲发运量1797.2 万吨，环比增加28.0万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1593.8万 吨，环比增加75.4万吨。巴西发运量625.2万吨，环比减少 146.0万吨。评：本周澳巴发运环比下降，到港量同步下滑，整 体供应收紧；需求方面，铁水产量仍在高位，需求环比继续增 加；库存来看，港口库存小幅去化，钢厂库存同步走低。目前 铁矿供需结构仍然偏强，情绪回补下，预计呈现偏强运行状 态。维持长线偏空思路，短线等待反弹行情结束后的做空机 会。 【短评-黄金】美国财长贝森特淡化了与欧盟迅速达成贸易 协议的可能性，称欧盟存在"集体行动问题"，这阻碍了谈 判。贝森特对与亚洲贸易伙伴达成协议较为乐观，称美国已与 日本进行了"非常富有成效的讨论"，并称赞与印尼"非常积 极"的沟通。评：美国关税政策仍然具有较大不确定性，美联 储官员对降息依然保持较大谨慎。美元指数反弹，利空黄金。 黄金下方空间和上方空间均有限，黄金中期高位震荡略偏空思 路为宜。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月14日 研 ...