Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From 2011 to the present, the price of ferromanganese silicon has experienced three fluctuation cycles, and it may currently be in the fourth downward cycle. The low price in June this year has broken through the low of the second cycle. The price fluctuations are affected by factors such as supply - side reform, demand changes, policy drives, and supply disruptions [5]. - The global manganese resource supply continues to expand, leading to a weakening of global manganese ore prices due to the oversupply situation. The production distribution of global manganese - based metals has changed significantly, with South Africa's dominant position strengthening and Gabon rising rapidly [6][12]. - The quotations of overseas mining enterprises and ports are oscillating downward, causing the production cost center of ferromanganese silicon to shift downward. The oversupply of manganese ore, weak port quotations, and reduced production costs all contribute to the downward expectation of ferromanganese silicon prices [13][15]. - The ferromanganese silicon production is concentrated in the northern regions, while the over - capacity problem in the southern regions persists. The overall capacity of ferromanganese silicon continues to expand, but the regional distribution is uneven, resulting in a prominent imbalance between supply and demand [25]. - In the second half of 2025, there may be a concentrated production of ferromanganese silicon, mainly in Inner Mongolia in the northern region. With the development of new energy projects, the production cost of ferromanganese silicon may be further compressed [26]. - The raw material ore end of ferromanganese silicon may be a factor for price rebound, but the overall oversupply situation mainly drives the price downward. The periodic fluctuations of manganese ore prices and the switching of ferromanganese silicon supply - demand affect the bearish cycle of ferromanganese silicon [28][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2011 - 2015 Bear Market Cycle and Current Cycle Comparison - From 2011 - 2015, the price of ferromanganese silicon continuously hit new lows due to the enrichment of manganese ore import structure, lower quotations, weakened cost support, and over - capacity [5]. - In 2011 - 2015, the global production of manganese - based metals increased, but the production distribution changed significantly. The production in Australia, Brazil, India, China, etc., decreased to some extent [12]. - During 2013 - 2015, the production of ferromanganese silicon decreased sharply, while the production of crude steel remained stable. The oversupply of manganese ore, lower port quotations, and reduced production costs led to a downward expectation of ferromanganese silicon prices [14][15]. Manganese Silicon Historical Price Review - From 2011 - 2025 to date, the price of ferromanganese silicon has gone through three fluctuation cycles: 2011 - 2015 (downward), 2016 - 2018 (supply - side reform with rising prices), 2018 - 2020 (weak demand with over - capacity intensification), 2020 - 2021 (policy - driven rebound), 2021 - 2024 (deepening over - capacity), 2024 (price fluctuations due to supply disruptions and production adjustments) [5]. Global Manganese Resource Supply - The global manganese resource supply continues to expand, and the oversupply of manganese ore has led to a weakening of global ore prices. The production distribution of global manganese - based metals has changed, with South Africa strengthening its dominant position and Gabon rising rapidly [6][12]. Manganese Ore Quotations and Production Costs - The quotations of overseas mining enterprises and ports are oscillating downward, causing the production cost center of ferromanganese silicon to shift downward. The oversupply of manganese ore, weak port quotations, and reduced production costs all contribute to the downward expectation of ferromanganese silicon prices [13][15]. Manganese Silicon Capacity and Production Distribution - From 2011 - 2024, the national ferromanganese silicon capacity increased from 1598000 tons to 2859000 tons, with an expansion of 44%. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia had more obvious capacity expansions [18]. - The production of ferromanganese silicon is concentrated in the northern regions, while the over - capacity problem in the southern regions persists. The overall capacity of ferromanganese silicon continues to expand, but the regional distribution is uneven, resulting in a prominent imbalance between supply and demand [23][25]. New Energy and Ferromanganese Silicon Cost - In the second half of 2025, there may be a concentrated production of ferromanganese silicon, mainly in Inner Mongolia in the northern region. With the development of "source - network - load - storage" projects and the increase in the proportion of green power use, the production cost of ferromanganese silicon may be further compressed [26]. Factors Affecting Ferromanganese Silicon Prices - The raw material ore end of ferromanganese silicon may be a factor for price rebound, but the overall oversupply situation mainly drives the price downward. The periodic fluctuations of manganese ore prices and the switching of ferromanganese silicon supply - demand affect the bearish cycle of ferromanganese silicon [28][31].

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡思路 | 乐观氛围主导，焦煤强势运行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 原材料支撑走强，焦炭震荡上行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 10 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 940.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Shida Shenghua (603026.SH) is facing significant financial pressure due to its aggressive expansion strategy in the electrolyte solvent market, leading to expected losses in the first half of 2025 [2][4][10]. Financial Performance - Shida Shenghua anticipates a net loss of between 52 million to 60 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a substantial decline of 236.64% to 257.66% compared to the same period last year [6][8]. - The company's revenue has been on a downward trend, with reported revenues of 83.16 billion yuan in 2022, 56.35 billion yuan in 2023, and 55.47 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting year-on-year changes of -32.24% and -1.56% [8]. - The net profit has also decreased significantly, from 8.91 billion yuan in 2022 to just 1.64 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a continuous decline over three years [8]. Expansion Strategy - The company has been actively expanding its production capacity, with plans to raise up to 45 billion yuan for various projects, including a 30,000-ton electrolyte project in Dongying and a 20,000-ton project in Wuhan [4][12]. - Despite the ambitious expansion, the company faced regulatory scrutiny and had to adjust its fundraising plans multiple times, ultimately reducing the target to 10 billion yuan [5][12][13]. - The expansion projects have not yet reached full production capacity, contributing to high fixed costs and operational losses [6][14]. Market Conditions - The electrolyte and carbonate market is currently oversupplied, which has led to declining product prices and increased competition within the solvent industry [3][15]. - The company has reported that the prices of key products, such as methyl tert-butyl ether and lithium fluoride, have dropped significantly, further impacting profitability [7][14]. Strategic Partnerships - Shida Shenghua has strengthened its strategic partnerships with major players like CATL and BYD, which has led to a significant increase in electrolyte sales and market share [14].

Group 1: PPI Trends - In June, the PPI decline expanded to 3.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from May, marking the lowest level since July 2023[6] - The decline in PPI is primarily driven by the midstream sector, with midstream raw material processing PPI dropping to -5.9% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.3 percentage points to the overall decline[10] - The capacity utilization rate in the raw material processing industry was significantly below the historical 50th percentile in Q1 2025, indicating potential overcapacity in the sector[10] Group 2: CPI Recovery - In June, the CPI unexpectedly turned positive, rising by 0.1% year-on-year, with both food and non-food CPI increasing by 0.1 percentage points[16] - The core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase, reaching 0.7%, the highest in 14 months, driven mainly by a recovery in consumer goods prices[16] - The recovery in CPI is attributed to three factors: a seasonal rise in vegetable prices, reduced energy drag from international oil prices, and a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices[20] Group 3: Risks and Outlook - Geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices are significant risk factors that could impact future economic conditions[23] - Despite the CPI's recovery, there remains a risk of a phase-down if short-term factors dissipate, indicating that further support for CPI is needed[21]

Core Points - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the EU's intention to establish a more "balanced" and "stable" relationship with China, rejecting the notion of decoupling [1][4][5] - Von der Leyen reiterated the EU's approach to China will focus on "de-risking" and addressing issues like "overcapacity" and subsidies, while also linking China's support for Russia to European instability [3][4] - The Chinese government responded by asserting its commitment to high-level openness and mutual respect, framing its economic policies as opportunities rather than risks [2][4][6] Summary by Categories Economic Relations - Von der Leyen highlighted the need to rebalance economic relations with China, emphasizing that the EU does not support strategic decoupling, which she described as ineffective and counterproductive [4][5] - The EU's focus on "de-risking" aims to mitigate perceived threats from China's economic practices, particularly regarding subsidies and overcapacity [3][4] Geopolitical Context - The speech linked China's actions to geopolitical tensions, particularly referencing the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggesting that China's support for Russia exacerbates European instability [3][4] - Von der Leyen acknowledged China's transformation into a significant global power over the past fifty years, indicating a need for the EU to adapt its strategies accordingly [4][5] Chinese Response - The Chinese government, through its spokespersons, emphasized its commitment to a fair and open market environment, rejecting claims of overcapacity as a guise for protectionism [2][4][6] - China expressed willingness to enhance communication and cooperation with the EU, aiming for mutual benefits and shared development [6]

摩根大通在最新研报指出，中国政府治理产能过剩的政策若执行得当，将对股市和全球贸易产生积极影响。中国行业龙头企业尤其是新能源汽车和房地产相关公司，有望从更强的定价能力、更高的收入市场份额和更健康的利润率中受益。目前所有产能过剩行业的股价都低于2021年峰值，其中电池、光伏、水泥、钢铁和化工行业股价回调跌幅超过50%。MSCI中国指数数据显示，汽车、化工、建材以及金属和采矿相关企业有望在产能收紧后获得更好的净利润率。 #反内卷None (@None):None ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual varieties, it includes ratings such as "盘整" (Consolidation), "回调" (Correction), "震荡" (Sideways), "偏空" (Bearish), and "反弹" (Rebound) [1][2]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: There is a balance between the increasing production pressure and the support from Saudi Arabia's increase in the OSP during the peak season, leading to a price consolidation. In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, and the price is likely to be bearish on rebounds [3][4][5]. - **LPG**: As the downward pressure on oil prices increases, LPG is under pressure. In the long - term, considering the supply - demand relationship of upstream crude oil, the central price is expected to continue to decline, and the current valuation of LPG is relatively high. In the short - term, the upward resistance is large, and the price is weak [6][7][8]. - **L (Polyethylene)**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, showing an interval - based consolidation. In the short - term, the cost support weakens, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long - term, with the planned new capacity coming into operation, the outlook is weak [9][10]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The cost support improves, and the price moves in an interval. Although there are some positive factors on the supply side, the overall supply - demand imbalance persists. In the long - term, the planned new capacity will put pressure on the supply [11][12]. - **PVC**: With the continuous decline in the price of calcium carbide, the cost support weakens. The supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish on rebounds [14][15]. - **PX**: The supply - demand relationship shifts from tight balance to looseness, and the cost support weakens. The price is expected to be bearish on rebounds [16][17]. - **PTA/PR**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance currently but is expected to loosen. There are opportunities to short at high prices [18][19][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Although the current inventory is low, the supply - demand is expected to become looser. There are opportunities to short at high prices [21][22][23]. - **Glass**: There is a conflict between policy expectations and real - world constraints. In the short - term, the price may move slightly upward, but in the medium - term, it is under pressure from the moving average [24][25]. - **Soda Ash**: The continuous inventory accumulation in soda ash plants puts pressure on the market sentiment. The price is expected to move in a wide - range sideways pattern [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The expansion of liquid chlorine subsidies drives the price to rebound. Although the overall supply - demand fundamentals are weak, there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season [29][30][31]. - **Methanol**: The upstream profit is still good, but there is a negative feedback on demand. The port may start a cycle of inventory accumulation later. The price is expected to be weak and sideways [32][33][34]. - **Urea**: Although the recent maintenance intensity has increased, the supply pressure remains large. The demand is weak, but the export growth is fast. There are opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - **Asphalt**: Due to the pressure on the cost - end oil price, the short - term price is bearish [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices opened low and closed high. WTI decreased by 0.76%, Brent increased by 1.87%, and SC decreased by 1.01% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to accelerate production in August. However, the oil price has strong support below due to the peak consumption season and Saudi Arabia's increase in the OSP. The demand growth rate has slightly decreased, and the US inventory has changed [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, and it is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC should be monitored in the range of [500 - 520] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 7, the PG main contract closed at 4179 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to the previous day. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed slightly [6]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the dominant factor. OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, putting downward pressure on oil prices and LPG. The PDH device profit decreases, and the supply and demand sides have different changes [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the central price of LPG is expected to decline. In the short - term, it is recommended to short with a light position. PG should be monitored in the range of [4150 - 4250] [8]. L (Polyethylene) - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, the cost support from crude oil weakens, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - season. The social inventory accumulates, and new capacity is planned to be put into operation in the long - term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider selling hedging opportunities. L should be monitored in the range of [7200 - 7300] [10]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Market Review**: The prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand is weak, and the supply - demand imbalance persists. Although there are some positive factors on the supply side, the planned new capacity will put pressure on the supply in the long - term [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider the 9 - 1 positive spread. PP should be monitored in the range of [7000 - 7100] [12]. PVC - **Basic Logic**: The price of calcium carbide continues to decline, the cost support weakens, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory accumulates, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new plants and the change of anti - dumping tax policies [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds. V should be monitored in the range of [4800 - 5000] [15]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures prices of different contracts decreased. The basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and international PX devices are operating at a relatively high load. The demand from the PTA side has weakened recently, and the supply - demand relationship shifts from tight balance to looseness. The inventory is still relatively high [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. PX should be monitored in the range of [6620 - 6730] [17]. PTA - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China decreased, and the futures price of the main contract also decreased. The basis and spreads changed [18]. - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices increases the supply. The demand from the polyester and terminal weaving industries weakens. The inventory is decreasing, but the processing fee is high, and the basis is expected to weaken [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. TA should be monitored in the range of [4660 - 4750] [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 5, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures price of the main contract decreased. The basis and spreads changed [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Many domestic and international devices are under maintenance or temporary shutdown, and the recent arrival volume is low, but it is expected to increase. The demand from the polyester and terminal weaving industries weakens, and the supply - demand is expected to become looser [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. EG should be monitored in the range of [4240 - 4310] [23]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotation increased, the futures contracts showed differentiation, the basis widened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Although there are policy expectations for capacity reduction and technological improvement, the short - term market is restricted by reality. The production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, the output increases slightly, and the inventory decreases but is still higher than last year [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG should be monitored in the range of [1010 - 1040] [25]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda decreased, the futures market showed differentiation, the main contract basis narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts increased, and the effective forecast decreased [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Although the policy of capacity reduction boosts the market sentiment, the inventory in soda ash plants continues to accumulate, and the supply is still at a high level. The downstream support is okay, but the terminal consumption is weak [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA should be monitored in the range of [1160 - 1190] [28]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda is stable, the futures market rebounds, the basis strengthens, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has high - load production and new capacity expectations, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season. The demand from the alumina industry recovers, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support weakens, and the inventory decreases [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH should be monitored in the range of [2390 - 2450] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China decreased, the main contract futures price decreased, the basis and spreads changed, and the trans - shipment profit increased [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic and international device operation loads are high. The import profit increases, and the port may start to accumulate inventory later. The demand from the MTO side weakens, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season. The social inventory accumulates, and the cost support is weak [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA should be monitored in the range of [2350 - 2400] [34]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The recent maintenance intensity increases, but the supply pressure remains large. The industrial and agricultural demands are weak, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. The cost support exists [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds. UR should be monitored in the range of [1725 - 1755] [2]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure due to OPEC+'s production expansion. The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is affected by the weather [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short with a light position. BU should be monitored in the range of [3550 - 3650] [2].

Core Viewpoint - The mobile power bank industry is facing a significant crisis due to a series of product recalls and operational challenges, primarily stemming from safety issues related to battery cells, which have led to widespread operational disruptions among major manufacturers [4][10][20]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The mobile power bank market has become extremely competitive, characterized by low margins and high pressure on manufacturers to innovate while maintaining cost efficiency [5][21]. - The market is projected to grow from $13.59 billion in 2024 to $20.35 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.40% [23]. - The industry has shifted from a focus on capacity to a more comprehensive competition involving fast charging, design, and pricing, as growth rates have slowed [24][25]. Group 2: Recent Events - The crisis was triggered by a recall of 490,000 units by Romoss and 713,000 units by Anker due to safety concerns related to defective battery cells [4][10]. - Romoss announced a temporary halt in production for six months starting July 7, 2025, due to operational challenges exacerbated by the recall [4]. - Anker's vice president expressed anxiety and urgency within the organization as they navigate the fallout from the recalls [4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Issues - The recalls were linked to a specific battery cell supplier, Amperex Technology Limited (ATL), which reportedly made unauthorized changes to raw materials, leading to safety hazards [10][11][14]. - Amperex is a leading supplier in the soft-pack battery sector, producing over 100 million lithium batteries in 2023, with major clients including Romoss and Anker [13]. - The complexity of battery safety production and testing poses significant challenges, with many potential points of failure in the supply chain [17][19]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The industry is marked by intense competition, with many companies racing to enhance performance and features, often at the expense of safety and reliability [28]. - The price of power banks has significantly decreased, with Romoss's 20,000mAh fast-charging model dropping from a price range of 129-149 yuan in 2021 to 69 yuan by the end of 2024 [26]. - Companies like Anker and Ugreen are investing in research and development to differentiate themselves in a saturated market, with R&D expense ratios of 8.5% and 4.9%, respectively [29].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon ferroalloy market has experienced significant price fluctuations due to factors such as over - capacity, policy impacts, and changes in supply - demand balance. The current market is characterized by over - capacity, and the price trend is downward due to weak demand and the release of new production capacity [8][23][26]. - The core contradictions in the market include structural over - capacity, the buffering effect of energy - consumption dual - control policies, and the game between profit and policy [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic and Supply - Demand Background - From 2011 - 2015, the global financial crisis had a lingering impact, with slow economic recovery in Europe and the US. China's GDP growth rate dropped from 18.2% in 2011 to 7.1% in 2015, and supply - side reforms affected the steel industry chain, which in turn influenced the demand for silicon ferroalloy. From 2020 to the present, the pandemic led to a contraction in industrial and manufacturing demand, and later, infrastructure and export demand drove a V - shaped rebound in steel demand, supporting silicon ferroalloy demand but with limited pulling power [3]. Price Fluctuations - Due to over - capacity in the Chinese silicon ferroalloy industry and limited demand, prices dropped rapidly from 2013 - 2015 and 2022 - 2024. Policy shocks such as the implementation of supply - side reforms in 2016 and the energy - consumption dual - control policy in 2021 had a significant impact on the price, indicating a common driving mechanism between policy and capacity adjustment [8]. Capacity Changes - From 2011 - 2024, the national silicon ferroalloy production capacity increased from 6.5 million tons to 11.024 million tons, an expansion of nearly 70%. There was a significant increase in capacity in regions like Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi. From 2011 - 2015, there was an acceleration in capacity investment, followed by a phase of capacity replacement [11]. - Currently, the average capacity utilization rate of silicon ferroalloy has not exceeded 62% since 2023, and only Inner Mongolia has maintained a relatively high capacity utilization rate. The annual output of silicon ferroalloy has stabilized at around 5.5 million tons, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia having relatively large market shares [13]. Policy Impacts - In 2011, 2.127 million tons of ferroalloy production capacity was eliminated, and in 2014, 2.343 million tons was eliminated, including small - scale ore - heating furnaces of various ferroalloys. In 2016, supply - side reforms led to the elimination of backward production capacity in the steel industry [16]. - In 2021, the energy - consumption dual - control policy led to power and production restrictions in major production areas. Inner Mongolia implemented a policy to withdraw the production capacity of ore - heating furnaces below 25,000KVA and 30,000KVA. Other provinces also carried out power and production restrictions to meet energy - consumption targets, which initially led to an expected supply contraction and price increase, but later the supply did not actually decrease significantly [17][18][19]. Current Market Situation - In 2021, although the silicon ferroalloy industry was affected by the energy - consumption dual - control policy, the actual reduction in production at the industrial level was limited, and the overall supply remained high. Compared with 2013, the total industry capacity expanded by nearly 70% while the annual output was similar. Weak demand due to a pessimistic real - estate environment led to a downward price trend [23]. - As of July 2025, the over - capacity problem remains unsolved. The prices of electricity and semi - coke, which account for about 60% and 14% of the current silicon ferroalloy cost respectively, are the main short - term drivers of price changes. The price of silicon ferroalloy continues to decline [24].

Core Viewpoint - Zhu Hai Chuan Mei Xun New Materials Co., Ltd. is preparing for an IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange, facing challenges such as leadership changes and declining profit margins despite revenue growth [1][5]. Company Overview - The company was founded in 2004 and is controlled by LIM KHENG TEE and Lin Yu Xiang, who together hold 62.79% of the shares [2]. - Lin Yu Xiang, a former professional baseball player, has gradually reduced his management role and shareholding, officially stepping down as chairman in December 2023 [3][4]. Leadership Changes - LIM KHENG TEE, aged 59, has taken over as chairman from Lin Yu Xiang, who remains a director and deputy general manager [4]. - The leadership transition coincides with Lin Yu Xiang's divorce, which resulted in a share transfer to his ex-wife [3]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue increased from 185 million yuan in 2022 to 207 million yuan in 2024, but net profit showed a decline from 42.2 million yuan in 2023 to 40.11 million yuan in 2024, indicating a "growth without profit" scenario [5]. - The sales prices of several products, including dispersed ink and water-based pigment ink, have been decreasing, contributing to the profit decline [5][7]. Industry Competition - The digital ink printing industry is experiencing intense competition, leading to price wars and declining product prices [5][8]. - Competitors have indicated that the current price pressure is primarily due to competition within the industry, with expectations of continued price declines [8]. Future Plans - The company plans to raise 43.16 million yuan through the IPO to expand production capacity, aiming to increase total capacity from 9,599.19 tons to 14,299.19 tons, a 49% increase [8].