Report Overview - Report Title: Morning Report - Iron Ore [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [3] - Report Theme: Iron ore - Macro disturbances weaken, and ore prices operate within a range [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the macro environment enters a window period, and the black series as a whole maintains a high - level consolidation cycle. The support from external ore supply weakens marginally, and external ore shipments will gradually enter a seasonal recovery cycle in August. However, based on the current high profits of blast furnaces and the characteristic that the terminal demand is not weak in the off - season, it is expected that the short - term domestic demand will remain at a relatively high level. The supply and demand of iron ore are in a stage of balance, and port inventories tend to be stable or increase slightly. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures prices will fluctuate at a high level. The price will operate in a range, with the i2601 contract price ranging from 745 yuan/ton to 780 yuan/ton (the domestic market changes contracts at the beginning of this week), and the foreign FE09 contract price ranging from $98.5 to $103 per ton [4] Summary by Directory Logic - The results of the China - US economic and trade talks basically meet expectations, but the expectation of incremental policies from an important domestic meeting fails. The market enters a short - term policy vacuum period, and the trading focus returns to the industrial fundamentals. The black series as a whole enters a high - level consolidation cycle, and attention should be paid to the cost support of short - process steelmaking [3] Supply - The short - term support from the supply side weakens marginally. External ore shipments will gradually enter a seasonal recovery cycle. After the maintenance periods of BHP and FMG mines in Australia end, their shipments increase, while the shipments from Brazil decrease this period. The short - term arrival volume rebounds from a low level, increasing the immediate supply pressure [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has declined for two consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The daily average pig iron output this period is 240.71 (a week - on - week decrease of 1.52). However, the profitability rate of steel mills continues to rise, and the blast furnace profit is relatively considerable. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the pig iron output can remain at a high level in the future [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high. Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices, steel mills continue to replenish their stocks. As the arrival volume drops to a relatively low - middle level, the port inventory drops significantly this period. Looking forward, with the increase in shipments and the marginal decrease in pig iron output, it is expected that the short - term inventory will generally tend to be stable or increase slightly [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On August 4, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.09% to 68,920 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 71,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 69,250 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 65,620 yuan/ton. Warehouse receipts were concentrated for cancellation, and inventory increased 5,998 tons to 12,603 tons [3]. - The supply - demand balance in August may further narrow. Weekly production continued to slow down, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons. However, with the price rebound, it is expected that the supply in August will still increase slightly by 3% to 84,200 tons. The lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. Social inventory has seen its first destocking since the end of May, but there is still about 142,000 tons [3]. - After the market sentiment subsided, lithium prices have fallen from their highs. The market focus is on the uncertainty of whether Jiaxiaowo will stop production. After the concentrated destocking of warehouse receipt inventory, there is a certain re - inflow, but the current total remains low. In the long term, attention should be paid to the further cost - reduction and production - increase actions of overseas mines [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 68,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 69,200 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 760 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 1,085 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained at 1,710 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,280 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) remained at 71,350 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) remained at 69,250 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 65,620 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 70,770 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 60,520 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.2 US dollars/kg, down 0.03 US dollars [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 52,750 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,100 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 5,730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 7,076.1 yuan/ton, down 247 yuan [5]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials showed small increases, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate remained unchanged, and the price of cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - **Cells & Batteries**: The prices of various cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other price spreads from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from December 12, 2024, to July 31, 2025 [34][35][37]. - **Production Costs**: Charts present the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [38][39]

Summary of Dairy Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The dairy industry is currently at a triple bottom in terms of supply, demand, and inventory, indicating that any positive change in these metrics could significantly impact the industry [1][3][15] - By the end of 2025, the number of dairy cows is expected to decrease to approximately 5.9 million, with contract prices for external milk rising above 2.5 yuan, suggesting market price stability [1][5][6] Key Insights - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - Fresh milk production is projected to decline by 2.8% in 2024, marking the first decrease in years. Although there was an increase in production in Q1 2024, the overall trend indicates a reduction in cow inventory [1][10][12] - The demand for dairy products is heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions, with cautious expectations for demand during key holidays [1][12][27] - **Inventory Management**: - Since Q2 2024, the dairy industry has maintained a relatively healthy inventory level, with improved shipping and sales matching helping to enhance cash flow [1][14][15] - Major dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu have reported stable inventory levels since late 2023 [13][14] - **Price Trends**: - As of July 2025, the price of contract external milk has rebounded to over 2.5 yuan, indicating a stable market without further declines [7][8] - The overall dairy price has not yet reversed from its downward cycle, but the excess supply has been alleviated to some extent [8][26] Future Outlook - The dairy market is expected to see a gradual recovery if any of the supply, demand, or inventory indicators show positive changes. A simultaneous improvement in two or more indicators could significantly boost stock prices [1][5][29] - The introduction of child-rearing subsidies, totaling 90 billion yuan, is anticipated to stimulate demand in the dairy sector, potentially leading to a quicker supply-demand balance [2][27][28] Additional Considerations - **Cyclical Nature of the Industry**: - The dairy industry has historically experienced cyclical fluctuations, with the current phase being a prolonged bottoming process since 2024 [4][16] - The structural changes in the industry suggest a shift away from aggressive inventory management towards natural sales growth [14][19] - **Impact of Policies**: - The implementation of fertility policies and subsidies is expected to have a significant positive effect on the demand side of the dairy market, potentially reversing the declining trend in newborn numbers [28][29] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Short-term stock performance may vary, but long-term prospects for leading dairy companies remain positive due to structural growth and improved gross margins [30] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the dairy industry, highlighting the current state, future outlook, and potential investment opportunities.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated at a low level yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a weak spot basis. Some mainstream suppliers sold their goods. The supply - demand pattern is okay due to some PTA device shutdowns last week, but the spot basis is weak. Considering the cooling macro - atmosphere, commodity correction, insufficient cost support, and weak downstream demand in the off - season, the PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether there are new changes in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and the market negotiation was general. Due to weather - related delays in vessel arrivals this week, the visible inventory is expected to decline. The ethylene glycol operating rate has rebounded to around 69%, and there is still room for improvement. Fundamentally, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation, and the tradable spot in the market will gradually become more abundant. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will be adjusted weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No specific content for the previous day review is provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental aspect: Futures were low - level fluctuating, spot negotiation was general, and basis was weak. 8 - month mainstream transactions were at 09 - 15, 9 - month mid - term at 09 flat, and 9 - month end at 09 + 5. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 15 [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 4700, 09 - contract basis is 2, and the futures price is higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Position of main players: Net short position with an increase in short positions [5]. - Expectation: Short - term price fluctuation, pay attention to new changes in devices under low processing fees [5]. - **MEG** - Fundamental aspect: Price fluctuated narrowly, and market negotiation was general. Spot transactions were in a narrow range, with a premium of 77 - 80 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. The foreign - exchange price also fluctuated narrowly [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 4455, 09 - contract basis is 66, and the spot price is higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Position of main players: Net short position with a decrease in short positions [7]. - Expectation: Short - term weak price adjustment, pay attention to cost - side changes [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No specific content for today's focus is provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes over time [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory changes [11]. - **Price - related Data**: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and various spreads of bottle chips, as well as the basis, spreads, and price differences of PTA and MEG, and the processing fees and profits of related products, covering the data from 2020 to 2025 [13][16][23][26][29][36]. - **Inventory - related Data**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various polyester products, including factory - level and port - level inventories, from 2021 to 2025 [40][42][49]. - **Operating Rate - related Data**: It presents the operating rate data of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and PTA - related industries from 2020 to 2025 [51][53][55]. - **Profit - related Data**: It includes the processing fees of PTA and the production profits of MEG and various polyester products from 2022 to 2025 [58][61][64].

纯苯&苯乙烯日报 能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 8 月 4 日 星期一 OPEC 增产大超预期，拖累苯乙烯价格下行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：8 月 1 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 0.49%，报 7296/吨，基差 54（+11 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 0.54%，报 6260 元/吨。 成本：8 月 1 日布油主力合约收盘 69.3 桶（-0.7 美元/桶），WTI 原油主 力合约收盘 72.5 桶（-0.7 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 6075 元/吨（-10 元/吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 21.7 万吨（+1.2 万吨），环比累库 5.9%，江 苏港口库存 16.4 万吨（+1.3 万吨），环比累库 8.8%，苯乙烯整体累库。 纯苯港口库存 17.0 万吨（-0.1 万吨）。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置回归，供应整体持稳。目前，苯乙烯周产量保持 36.1 万吨（+0.0 万吨），工厂产能利用率 78.9%（+0.1%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 54.3%（-1.0%）， ABS 产能利用率 65.9%（-0.9%） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly. The short - term digestion of the anti - involution in the macro - aspect did not lead to better transaction volume with price drops. Downstream buyers still mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In the industrial chain, ore prices and ferronickel prices were weakly stable, but some ferronickel quotes rebounded. The cost line remained low. July and August are traditional off - seasons for stainless steel consumption, and the inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly this week. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, which is beneficial for the increase in nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [8]. - Technically, on the daily K - line, the price is running below the 20 - day moving average. The important support and resistance levels of the Fibonacci retracement are effective. The main funds have not decreased, and short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD indicator shows a death cross, and the KDJ has entered the oversold area with a rebound demand. Overall, it is expected to move in a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: Weak operation this week, with long - term oversupply unchanged. The macro - situation has short - term digestion, downstream purchases are rigid - demand based, and new energy vehicle data is positive [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: Red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% prices remained unchanged from last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price decreased by 2.95%, 3.19%, and 3.10% respectively [14]. - **Nickel Iron**: Low - grade ferronickel in Shandong decreased by 3.03%, while high - grade ferronickel remained unchanged. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals data, high - grade ferronickel increased by 2.5 yuan/nickel, and low - grade ferronickel increased by 100 yuan/ton [13][46][47]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 0.18% [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Ore prices were stable, and shipping costs were flat. As of July 31, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 9.9436 million wet tons, an increase of 0.66%. In June 2025, nickel ore imports were 4.3466 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.21%. The market was mostly in a wait - and - see state, and downstream procurement was cautious [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - This week, nickel prices oscillated weakly, and downstream buyers made rigid - demand purchases. The import window opened, and some Norwegian nickel resources increased. In the long - term, supply and demand will both increase, but the oversupply pattern remains. In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37%. The estimated production in July was 36,745 tons. Import and export data also showed certain changes [25][26][30]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices were weakly stable. In June 2025, China's nickel pig iron production was 23,300 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35%. The import volume in June was 1.041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50.0% [45][49][52]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel increased slightly. In June, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with the 300 - series production decreasing by 2.28% month - on - month. The import volume was 109,500 tons, and the export volume was 390,000 tons. As of August 1, the national inventory was 1.1112 million tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons, while the 300 - series inventory increased by 6,700 tons [59][64][71]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In June 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.4% and 26.7%. From January to June 2025, the production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [77][78]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, the price is below the 20 - day moving average. The Fibonacci retracement levels are effective. The main funds are still active, short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD shows a death cross, and the KDJ is in the oversold area, indicating a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Combing Summary - **Influence on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore and ferronickel are neutral - bearish; refined nickel is neutral; stainless steel is neutral; new energy is neutral - bullish [88]. - **Trading Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [90].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most products are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, urea, propylene [1][2] - Some products are rated as "Bearish", such as methanol and asphalt [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For most products, the market is facing various pressures such as supply increase, weak demand, and lack of macro - positive factors, leading to a downward or cautious outlook [1][2] - For example, in the case of crude oil, OPEC+ production increase and the entry into the second half of the peak season put pressure on oil prices [3][6] Group 3: Summaries by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On August 1, international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 2.79%, Brent dropped 2.83%, and SC dropped 0.73% [5] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, and the peak season is in the second half, so the oil price center may decline [6] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ will increase production by 54.7 million barrels per day in September, and US crude oil production in May increased by 2.4 million barrels per day. US commercial crude oil and strategic crude oil reserves increased [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [505 - 520] [8] LPG - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the PG main contract closed at 3987 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% [11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price fell, and Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price. Although the fundamentals are okay, the cost - end is the main drag [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try short positions lightly. Pay attention to the range of PG [3850 - 3950] [13] L - **Market Performance**: L2509 contract closed at 7317 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan). The North China basis was - 97 (down 7) [17] - **Basic Logic**: The market returns to weak fundamentals. Most devices restarted, increasing supply pressure. Social inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, and industrial customers can sell hedging [19] PP - **Market Performance**: PP2509 closed at 6098 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and the East China basis was 19 (up 13) [24] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are both weak, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. New production capacity will be released in the third quarter, and downstream replenishment is insufficient [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: V2601 closed at 5015 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan), and the Changzhou basis was - 95 (down 4) [31] - **Basic Logic**: The market returns to weak fundamentals. New devices are put into operation, and demand is in the off - season. Social inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of V [4900 - 5100] [32] PX - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6812 yuan/ton (down 116 yuan) [36] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory is high, and there is no macro - positive factor recently [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce long positions, sell call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of PX [6720 - 6840] [38] PTA - **Market Performance**: On August 1, PTA in East China was 4740 yuan/ton (down 86 yuan); TA09 closed at 4744 yuan/ton (down 64 yuan) [40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and the tight - balance situation in August is expected to ease [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce long positions, sell call options, and pay attention to the possibility of expanding the processing fee. Pay attention to the range of TA [4720 - 4800] [42] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4480 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan); EG09 closed at 4405 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan) [44] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory is low [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions (partially reduce), sell call options, and pay attention to low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of EG [4340 - 4410] [46] Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot market price decreased, and the futures price center moved down [49] - **Basic Logic**: There is no super - expected policy in the Politburo meeting, and the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line. Inventory is mainly transferred, not consumed by the terminal market [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1070 - 1130] [51] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was stable, and the futures price rose. The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [54] - **Basic Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down, and the supply - demand surplus pattern has not improved significantly. Warehouse receipts and forecasts increase, and industrial hedging exerts pressure [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait patiently for the pullback to be in place [55] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The spot price decreased, and the futures price closed down. The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [59] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device maintenance led to a decline in industry start - up. Downstream alumina plants resumed production, but inventory is high year - on - year [60] - **Strategy Recommendation**: None provided in the text Methanol - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2385 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and the main 09 contract closed at 2393 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan) [62] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign devices resumed production, increasing supply pressure. Demand is expected to weaken, and social inventory is accumulating [63] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of MA [2350 - 2400] [64] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price has room to decline, supply increases, and demand decreases, and the inventory is accumulating [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try short positions lightly. Pay attention to the range of BU [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are loose, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 1 - 2 reverse spread, and go long on the PP processing fee on the futures market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term price is under pressure due to the disappointment of the 50% US copper tariff expectation, with the main price range expected to be 77,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The non - US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak actual demand", and the spot contradiction is gradually resolved [1]. Aluminum - The short - term main contract of alumina is expected to run in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to arrange short positions on rallies in the medium term. Aluminum prices are under pressure in the short term, with the main contract price range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory reduction and demand changes [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The subsequent demand will remain weak, suppressing the upward momentum of prices. However, the downward space is limited due to the high cost of scrap aluminum. The disk is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, with the main reference range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the supply improvement of refined zinc lags behind, and the demand is affected by the seasonal off - season [7]. Tin - It is recommended to wait and see. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes after the resumption of production in Myanmar [9]. Nickel - In the short term, the disk is expected to be adjusted within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro - expectation is changeable, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [11]. Stainless Steel - The short - term disk is mainly volatile, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm. The supply pressure is difficult to reduce in the short term, and the terminal demand is weak [12][13]. Lithium Carbonate - The main price is expected to fluctuate widely around 65,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading without positions, and consider shorting the near - term contract and longing the far - term contract for inter - period trading. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and supply adjustments [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.91% to 78,565 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 14.18% to 844 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 60 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 66,837 tons, and imports increased by 18.74% to 30.05 tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 23.23% to 56.09 tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.44% to 20,580 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 725.81 tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 tons. The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.06% to 54.40 tons [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 61.50 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 tons. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.59% to 3.26 tons [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.68% to 22,300 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 20.54 yuan/ton to - 1602 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 45 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 3.61 tons. The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots increased by 4.98% to 10.32 tons [7]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.97% to 265,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 166.76% to - 7.01 dollars/ton. The import loss decreased by 5.93% to - 15,773.30 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 380 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94% to 13,810 tons. The social inventory increased by 2.36% to 9,958 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.46% to 121,250 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 62.17% to - 3,863 yuan/ton [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2509 - 2510 decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: In June, Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. The social inventory increased by 2.97% to 40,338 tons [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased by 32.50% to 265 yuan/ton [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2509 - 2510 remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 tons, and imports decreased by 12.48% to 10.95 tons. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.20% to 51.48 tons [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.30% to 72,000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 48.70% to 4,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 60 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.41% to 81,530 tons, and imports decreased by 16.31% to 17,698 tons. The total inventory increased by 2.27% to 88,888 tons [14].

逢高止盈 原油周报 2025/08/02 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 04 原油供应 02 宏观&地缘 05 原油需求 03 油品价差 06 原油库存 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 2025/6/18 2025/6/25 2025/7/2 2025/7/9 2025/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day this month, and there are expectations for another 548,000 barrels per day increase in September, which may lead to an oversupply and downward pressure on oil prices. The US tariff agreements may improve market risk appetite, but the potential secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil could cause price fluctuations [4]. - PX is in a tight - balance situation with low inventory and high operating rates. With only one potential new device planned at the end of 2025 and high uncertainty, PXN has support due to new PTA device demand [4]. - A 3.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has one line put into production, and multiple devices are under maintenance. The short - term polyester load is strong, but in the long run, there is an oversupply, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [4]. - Rising coal prices support the cost of ethylene glycol. Port inventory is decreasing, and the supply - demand is tight. However, there is an expected increase in imports in August, and short - term prices are expected to be strong [4]. - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 85.82%, down 0.60% week - on - week. Downstream demand is weak, and the industry is in an oversupply situation. The demand for textile raw materials is expected to recover in mid - to late August [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ is set to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day this month, and there are expectations for the same increase in September, which may lead to oversupply and downward price pressure. The US tariff agreements may improve market risk appetite, but the claim of secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil could cause price fluctuations [4]. PX - Current PX inventory is low, and the operating rate is high, maintaining a tight - balance situation. In 2025, only one 3 - million - ton device of Yulong Petrochemical is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, with a capacity growth rate of about 5%. The domestic PX output in the first half of 2025 was 18.3 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. The annual supply in 2025 is expected to be about 47.8 billion tons, with a growth rate of about 3%. The domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization rate is 82.35%, down 0.56% week - on - week, and the Asian weekly average is 71.98%, down 0.03% week - on - week. The PX - naphtha spread is around $265 per ton. The downstream PTA is still in an expansion cycle, and the supply - demand gap supports PX prices [4][8]. PTA - A 3.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has one line put into production recently, and multiple devices are under concentrated maintenance. The downstream polyester is in the off - season, and the processing fee is 204 yuan per ton, remaining flat compared to last week and at a low point this year. With new device production, the oversupply situation will intensify, and the processing fee may be compressed. The weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate is 79.67%, down 1.09% week - on - week. The spot market price is 4,750 yuan per ton, and the mainstream spot basis is 09, - 13 [4][14]. MEG - The market price of ethylene glycol this week is 4,485 yuan per ton, down 2.05% week - on - week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 60.67%, up 1.47% week - on - week, and the coal - based capacity utilization rate is 63.87%, up 3.88% week - on - week. The gross profit has risen to 103.33 yuan per ton, up 15.42 yuan per ton week - on - week. The inventory in East China ports is 427,200 tons, down 47,800 tons week - on - week, at a historical low. Due to the delay of imported goods caused by typhoons, imports are expected to increase. Affected by coal prices, the overall price is expected to be strong [19]. Polyester Industry - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 85.82%, down 0.60% week - on - week. Downstream demand is weak, and there is inventory accumulation due to high - level operation. The effectiveness of potential production cuts needs further observation. The demand for long - and short - fiber textile raw materials is expected to recover in mid - to late August [26].