1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space and is over - valued [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][7] - Ferrosilicon: A large number of warehouse receipts are registered, and attention should be paid to position risks [2][12] - Silicomanganese: Cost provides bottom support, wide - range oscillation [2][13] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2][16] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2][16] - Logs: Weak oscillation [2][18] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend analysis for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, based on their fundamentals and macro - industry news [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price was 794.0 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan or 0.44%. The positions decreased by 12,429 hands. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores increased slightly. The basis and spreads showed minor changes [4] - **Macro - industry news**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the cumulative growth rate from January to October was 6.1% [4] - **Trend strength**: - 1, indicating a bearish view [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,106 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.71%. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, it was 3,309 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 0.64%. Spot prices in some regions increased. The basis and spreads changed [7] - **Macro - industry news**: In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 2.5% month - on - month. In November 20th steel union weekly data, production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products changed. In October, national steel production data showed declines in some aspects, and import and export data also changed [8][9] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed. Spot prices of related products and raw materials also showed changes. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [13] - **Macro - industry news**: On November 25th, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported [13] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,086 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan or 1.0%. For coke J2601, it was 1,643 yuan/ton, up 10.5 yuan or 0.6%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions remained stable. The basis and spreads changed [16] - **Macro - industry news**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026 [16] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [17] Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed changes. Spot prices of various types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were mostly stable, with some showing small declines [19] - **Macro - industry news**: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10th, 2025 [21] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral view [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The near - month cotton contracts perform stronger than the forward contracts [1]. - The ICE cotton futures continued the rebound trend, influenced by the rise in crude oil prices and commercial bargain - hunting [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 13,585 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.93%, and 13,620 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.26% increase. Its trading volume was 428,347 lots, an increase of 132,909 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 960,358 lots, an increase of 14,617 lots [1]. - CY2601 closed at 20,075 yuan/ton yesterday with a 1.77% increase, and 20,090 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.07% increase. Its trading volume was 24,063 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 21,700 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE cotton No.3 closed at 64.08 cents/pound yesterday with a 0.23% increase [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,240, a decrease of 4 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,294, an increase of 73 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 14, a decrease of 3 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 17 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,496 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan or 0.83% from the previous day [1]. - The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,493 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan or 0.91% from the previous day [1]. - The price in Shandong was 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan or - 0.01% from the previous day [1]. - The price in Hebei was 14,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or - 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 14,793 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan or - 0.02% from the previous day [1]. - The international cotton index M was 71.87 cents/pound, an increase of 0.14% from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan or - 0.10% from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan/ton more than the previous day's spread [1]. - The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 10 yuan less than the previous day's spread [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The spot trading of domestic cotton was stable with little change. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases with weak purchasing willingness. The spot fixed - price quotes were stable, and the prices were basically the same as those of point - price transactions. The spot sales basis was stable [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The prices of pure - cotton yarn were generally stable, and the overall market sales were sluggish. Recently, the high - count pure - cotton yarn sold relatively well, while the trading of other counts was slow, and the overall sales volume continued to decline. Some large spinning mills in the inland offered discounts to reduce inventory, and some small and medium - sized spinning mills switched to order - based production. There was no obvious inventory pressure, but they generally reported a decrease in orders. The market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with small - order transactions. Attention should be paid to the spring orders in the future [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures continued the rebound trend, influenced by the rise in crude oil prices and commercial bargain - hunting [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南美降雨低于正常水平对种植存在干扰。目前现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价心 | | 豆粕 | | 理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴西 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 种植升水可能，市场看多情绪炒作。短线偏多，关注南美大豆种植天气进展。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高。11 月 22 日新 | | 菜粕 | 短线止跌整理 | 沙港将有一船澳籽到港。实质影响有限。基本面暂无大波动预期。菜粕昨日跟随豆 | | ★ | | 粕收涨，逢低短多对待。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 棕榈油阶段性供需偏弱状态，11 月马棕榈油前 20 日出口数据环比数据进一步走弱， | | 棕榈油 | 偏弱整理 | 打压棕榈油价格昨日回落收跌。11 月马棕榈油累库预期依然存在，看多暂观望。 | | ★ | | | | | | 国内豆油库存环比下降，但仍高于五年同期。中美关税未能彻底解决美豆进口成本 | | 豆油 | 短期震荡 | 问题，美生柴乐观情绪升温，叠加巴西 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document Core Views - The report offers trading suggestions and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., based on their fundamentals, market news, and price trends [2][4][8] - Each product has a unique trend intensity, which reflects the strength of its market trend [8][12][17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Asian PX price rose slightly, PXN reached 260 USD/ton. Suggest to exit long positions, short PXN, go long MEG and short PX. Pay attention to month - spread reverse arbitrage [4][6][8] - **PTA**: Operating rate declined, overall in a tight - balance but with a recent inventory build - up. Valuation is high, recommend exiting long positions [4][8][9] - **MEG**: Supply is expected to contract, the supply - demand balance sheet is improving. Suggest to stop loss on short positions and reverse - arbitrage positions, and go long MEG and short PX [8][9][10] Rubber - Rubber is expected to move in a sideways pattern. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao increased. The price of natural rubber raw materials remained high due to rain affecting tapping [11][12][14] Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to run weakly within the valuation range. The domestic butadiene market is weak, and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber has increased slightly. The short - and medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are bearish [15][16][17] Asphalt - Asphalt's operating rate increased significantly, and the inventory continued to decline. The weekly output increased, and the inventory in both refineries and social warehouses decreased [18][23][24] LLDPE - LLDPE's import offers may decrease, and the cracking load is disturbed. The futures price rebounded slightly, and the basis was gradually repaired. The supply - demand pressure in the medium - term needs attention [25][26] PP - PP should not be shorted in the short - term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term. The supply is high, and the demand peak has passed. The low profit restricts the downward space [29][30][31] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda still faces pressure. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand is weak. The cost support is limited [33][35][36] Pulp - Pulp is expected to move in a sideways pattern. The futures price fluctuated slightly, the basis of some varieties weakened, and the supply pressure persisted while the demand was flat [38][39][41] Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price rose, the basis weakened, and the cost support increased, but the processing factory orders were average [44][45] Methanol - Methanol rebounded from a low - valuation level. The price increased with the decline of short positions in the 01 contract. The supply - demand situation is still under pressure in the medium - term [47][49][50] Urea - Urea is expected to have a sideways correction. The price fluctuated, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply pressure is large, but the downward driving force is weakened by policies [51][53][54] Styrene - Styrene is expected to move sideways in the short - term. The pure benzene market is under pressure due to inventory build - up and weak terminal demand. The rebound of styrene is also restricted [55][56] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The production is stable, and the downstream demand is mainly for low - price rigid needs. It is expected to move sideways in the short - term [58][59] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The downstream demand is differentiated, and attention should be paid to cost changes. The futures price fluctuated, and the operating rates of related industries changed slightly [61][62][66] - **Propylene**: The upward driving force is weakening, but the cost support is strong. The price difference between propylene and related contracts changed [62][66] PVC - PVC should not be shorted, and it is expected to move in a low - level sideways pattern. The futures price is at a historical low, and some devices may cut production due to losses, but the impact may be limited in the short - term [69][70] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to move in a narrow range and may be stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short - term [72] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is still weak, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [72] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to have a short - term restorative rebound. The futures price fluctuated, and the freight rate index of European routes increased [74]

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but limited operability in the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and good investment prospects [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, with a bullish bias but limited market operability [1] - 20 - day Rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor market operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balanced state and poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends. Some are in a state of shock, some are expected to be weak, and some are supported by certain factors. The investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, including temporary observation, being bullish on certain commodities, and looking for cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded sharply. New cotton cost provides support but also limits price increase. It may continue range - bound. Despite large new cotton production increase, low commercial inventory and fast sales support the market. As of November 20, national cumulative processed lint was 4631000 tons, up 812000 tons year - on - year. As of November 15, commercial cotton inventory was 3639700 tons, down 204300 tons year - on - year. Cotton yarn market trading was weak. Suggestion: temporarily observe [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data in the second half of October was bearish. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand started the new season with good production expectations. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weak. In October, syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were high, with supply pressure. The market focus shifts to the next season's output estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. In Shandong, apple acquisition is almost over. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.33 million tons, down 12.73% year - on - year. The market trading logic shifts to sales expectations. Due to high acquisition prices and poor apple quality, there is a high sentiment of reluctance to sell, which may affect the de - stocking speed. Pay attention to de - stocking [4] 20 - day Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU futures prices rose slightly, 20 - day rubber IR and butadiene rubber BR futures prices fluctuated. Global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, but Yunnan in China is gradually entering the non - production period. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased. Domestic tire operating rate decreased, and tire enterprise inventories increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 468900 tons. Suggestion: RU is bullish, NR and BR should be observed, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices declined slightly. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, up 3.0% from the previous period. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed. Suggestion: temporarily observe [6] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, while domestic spot prices were weak. Traders' import willingness declined. Port outbound volume is over 60000 cubic meters, and inventory is low. Suggestion: temporarily observe [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Neutral (not explicitly stated in a clear rating system but based on the context of market analysis) [6] - Methanol: Consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread, but with caution [6] - Pure Benzene: Bearish bias, consider option configuration [3] - Styrene: Price supported but limited upside [3] - Polypropylene: Slight bearish due to supply increase and weak demand [2] - Plastic: Bearish due to increased supply and weak demand [2] - PVC: Follow cost - end changes, supply high and demand weak [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation, follow profit changes [7] - PX: Strong before new capacity, short - term supply - demand weakening [5] - PTA: Cost - driven, reduced inventory build - up expectation [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term rebound expected but limited space [5] - Short Fiber: Price follows raw materials, no new investment pressure [5] - Bottle Chips: Cost - driven, long - term over - capacity pressure [5] - Soda Ash: Bullish short - term, oversupply long - term [8] - Glass: Limited downside, consider long - glass short - soda strategy [8] Core Views - The overall chemical market is complex, with different products showing various trends based on supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment factors. Some products have short - term bullish or bearish trends, while others face long - term challenges such as over - capacity [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Two - olefin futures contracts are fluctuating around the 5 - day moving average. Plastic and polypropylene futures are weak due to increased supply and weak demand. Polyethylene supply pressure increases with reduced maintenance and more shipments, and demand from downstream industries is weak. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures are weak, and the rebound is bearish. Consider option configuration. Styrene price is supported by tight supply - demand balance but has limited upside due to uncertain cost and demand support [3] Polyester - PX is strong before new capacity but short - term supply - demand is weakening. PTA is cost - driven with reduced inventory build - up expectation. Ethylene glycol has a short - term rebound expectation but limited space. Short fiber price follows raw materials, and bottle chips are cost - driven with long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol can consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread due to overseas production cuts and low valuation, but be cautious of weak reality. Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC has good export to India but weak domestic demand, and it may follow cost - end changes. Caustic soda is in a weak operation due to high supply and low demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is de - stocking and bullish short - term but oversupplied long - term. Glass has limited downside and can consider the long - glass short - soda strategy [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 资金博弈剧烈，价格承压下行 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-24 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:情绪悲观，价格下行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量微降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.81万吨，比13日-0.66%。行业开工率为74.66%，比13日-0.34个百分点；行业产能利用率为79.03%，比 | | | | 13日-0.53个百分点。本周1条生产线放水冷修，叠加1条产线热修，产量减少。下周暂无产线存点火或者冷修预期，预估下周浮法玻璃日产量维 | | | | 持稳定。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 需求有支撑，近期产销随着价格波动而波动。但总体看来，下游需求仍有较强韧性。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存震荡，企业库存6330.3万重箱，环比+5.6万重箱，环 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE:宏观情绪偏弱 ，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国LLDPE产量总计在30.46吨，较上周下跌1.20%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率82.71%，较上周期减少了0.43个百分点。本周期装 | | | | 置情况来看，内中天合创、中英石化、万华化学、吉林石化等装置存在检修情况，存量检修装置多于周后期重启，因此产能利用率环比下跌。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期+0.2%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.1%；PE包装膜开工率较前期+0.5%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 平均开工率较前期+0.2%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.1%； ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 吴光静 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价(日盘) | 涨跌 | 收盘价(夜盘) | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE = 2601 ( = / 中) 4109 -1 (-0.02%) | | 4101 | -6 (-0. 15%) | | 期货 | DCE豆粕2601(元/吨) 3012 -1 (-0.03%) | | 2996 | -21 (-0. 70%) | | | CBOT大豆01(美分/蒲) 1126. 5 +4 (+0. 36%) | | | | | | CBOT豆粕01(美元/短吨) 319. 8 +2.2 (+0.69%) | | | na | | | 豆粕(43%) | | | | | | 2990~3080. 较昨=10至持平:现货基差M2601+40. 较昨持平:12月 M2601+30/+60,持平:12-3月M2601+20/+50,持平;2026年1-3月M2601+30;2-4 | | | ...

国内白糖工业库存 巴西糖配额外进口利润 2000 ------ 19/20 ------- 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------ 22/23 ------ 22/23 ------- 23/24 - - 24/25 800 C 1500 1000 500 600 0 -500 -1000 400 -1500 -2000 -2500 200 =2017 == 2018 == 2020 2016 · 0 2021 · =2022 == 2023 = =2024 == 2025 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 4月 5月 6月 7月 9月 3月 8月 柳州-01基差 郑糖1-5月差 500 1000 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 0 -200 -400 -100 -200 6月21日 7月21日 8月21日 9月21日 10月21日 11月21日 12月21日 5月21日 =SR1801-SR1805 =SR1901-SR1905 =SR2001-SR2005 SR1701-SR1705 = SR2101-SR2105 -- SR2201-SR2205 -- ...