祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251015：或有压力 | | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/10/15 指标 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 9,300.00 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,520.00 -3.24% | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 780.00 285.00 | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 51.25 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 49,990.00 2.56% | | 基差 元/吨 1,260.00 -1,250.00 | | 元/吨 9,300.00 0.00% 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 9,250.00 0.00% | | 9,350.00 0.00% 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 元/吨 | | 不通氧553#（四川）平均价格 元/吨 8, ...

Group 1 - The importance of maintaining appropriate pressure in futures trading is emphasized, as too much pressure can impair judgment while too little can lead to insensitivity [11] - The need for deep thinking and self-reflection is highlighted, suggesting that investors should minimize unnecessary social interactions to focus on their inner thoughts [3] - The balance between effort in research and maintaining a proper distance from the market is described as an art form, requiring both diligence and perspective [8] Group 2 - Emotional and rational decision-making are presented as opposing forces, with four scenarios outlined regarding how emotions can influence investment decisions [9] - The concept of "listening" to the market is deemed more important than making predictions, as it allows for a better understanding of market direction and changes [12][14] - Acknowledging the limitations of one's understanding and continuously adjusting perceptions based on market feedback is recommended as a strategy for successful trading [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol - The market was affected by the news that some freight forwarders' warehouses had suspended accepting Iranian goods, leading to a significant strengthening of port prices and basis. The 01 contract is currently oscillating between real - time pressure and future expectations. The supply side has a resumption expectation for some inland plants, and the relatively healthy inventory structure in the inland provides some support for prices. The demand side shows weakness as traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the new polyolefin plant commissioning expectation continuously suppresses MTO demand. With the current situation of high port inventory and weak basis, attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction due to overseas gas restrictions in mid - October. Overall, focus on overseas plant operations, sanctions on Iranian vessels, and the actual arrival of imported goods [1]. Polyolefins - Polyolefins still face significant post - holiday inventory pressure. On the supply side, the PE operating rate is continuously rising, with few planned maintenance, and domestic production is steadily increasing. Additionally, the year - end overseas inventory clearance impacts the market, resulting in prominent medium - to - long - term supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the trading and cancellation of North American goods in the future. For PP, due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil prices, its valuation has been significantly repaired, and the restart rhythm of plants needs to be monitored. In October, the commissioning pressure of new plants is high, and the demand side still lacks highlights. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: There are expectations of the resumption of some overhauled plants and the commissioning of new production capacity, so the domestic pure benzene supply remains at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products of pure benzene are in a loss - making state, some secondary downstream inventories are high, and some downstream plants have planned and unplanned production cuts, so the demand support is limited. In terms of inventory, the upcoming vessels are at a low level, and the spot buying interest is stronger than that of the far - month contracts, so the pure benzene port inventory continues to decline. In October, the overall supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be relatively loose, and the price driver is weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of oil price trends and geopolitical situations on market sentiment. The BZ2603 contract is expected to oscillate following styrene and oil prices [7]. - **Styrene**: There are expectations of new plant commissioning and the resumption of previously shut - down plants, so the supply is expected to increase. Although some plants are shut down for maintenance due to inventory and industry profit pressure, it is still difficult to fully offset the pressure of new and resumed production, and the overall supply is expected to remain at a high level. Affected by the holiday, the operating rate decreased this week, but the rigid demand support in the seasonal peak season still exists and is expected to gradually recover to the pre - holiday demand level. However, the profit of some downstream industries is under pressure, and the finished product inventory remains high, so the demand support may be limited. Attention should be paid to the situation where the de - stocking rhythm fails to meet expectations and the disturbances of geopolitical and macro news. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be relatively loose, and the styrene price is still under pressure under the weak oil price expectation. The EB11 price should be treated as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is fair, and the overall quotation is stable with a slight decline. The downstream alumina demand is average, so the caustic soda price is under pressure. The change in the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited, and the driving effect on the incremental demand for alumina is still limited. Under the supply - demand mismatch pattern, the domestic spot price is expected to continue the weak trend. From the perspective of the alumina commissioning rhythm, there will be more alumina commissioning in the first quarter of next year, so there may be concentrated stockpiling behavior in the fourth quarter of this year, and the spot liquidity may tighten at that time. After the pre - holiday non - aluminum stockpiling ended, the purchases are mainly for rigid demand. After the National Day, as the non - aluminum inventory decreases, there may be a purchase intention due to the low price. In the medium - to - long - term, caustic soda has demand support, but it lacks short - term support and tends to be weak. It can be treated as a short - selling opportunity in the short - term, and the downstream stockpiling rhythm needs to be tracked [8]. - **PVC**: The frequency of maintenance of PVC production enterprises has increased recently, and the market supply pressure has been slightly relieved. The domestic and foreign trade exports have gradually recovered after the holiday. However, the industry still faces inventory accumulation pressure in the short - term, although the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The short - term external macro - environment expectation is not good, which may continue to affect the market trend in the near future. On the demand side, the peak season has not shown obvious performance, and the profile demand has continued to shrink, showing obvious characteristics of a non - peak season. Overall, the willingness of upstream enterprises to hold goods has decreased, but the export has relieved some of the over - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the cost support, and the short - term market is expected to continue to be under pressure. Focus on the downstream demand performance [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The domestic PX operating load remains at a high level. On the demand side, due to the continuously low PTA processing fee, some PTA plants have overhaul expectations, but there are also new PTA plant commissioning expectations, and the polyester load remains stable in the short - term, so the PX demand side has some support. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply - demand of PX is expected to be relatively weak. Coupled with the limited price driver under the weak oil supply - demand expectation and the repeated tariff policies, PX may oscillate weakly in the short - term. The strategy is to wait and see for now and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; mainly conduct backwardation arbitrage [9]. - **PTA**: Under the weak supply - demand expectation, the basis repair driver is limited. In terms of absolute price, the price driver is limited under the weak oil supply - demand expectation, and there are negative factors such as repeated tariff policies. PTA may oscillate weakly in the short - term. The strategy is to wait and see for TA, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling backwardation arbitrage [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The arrival of MEG at the main ports this week is still high, and the port inventory is expected to continue to rise next week. The new Yulong Petrochemical plant has been commissioned, and the plant load will gradually increase. The satellite petrochemical plant has restarted smoothly, and the domestic supply remains at a high level. MEG is expected to accumulate inventory in October, and the supply - demand structure in the far - month is weak, with a high inventory accumulation amplitude from November to December, making MEG operate weakly. The strategy is to short EG01 on rallies; hold the seller position of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350; conduct backwardation arbitrage on EG1 - 5 at high levels [9]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak. Currently, the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. During the National Day, the short - fiber factory inventory did not accumulate much, and the post - holiday inventory pressure is not large. However, affected by tariffs, the terminal demand in the fourth quarter is insufficiently supported. Therefore, short - fiber is likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel. The PR price will mainly follow the cost side, and the cost side is weak, so the short - term short - fiber processing fee has improved. The strategy is the same as that of PTA for the single - side trading; the short - fiber processing fee on the disk is expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 1100, and mainly expand the spread at low levels, but the driving force is limited [9]. - **Bottle - chip**: There is no news of further production cuts for bottle - chip plants in October. The fourth quarter is the traditional off - season for bottle - chip demand. Considering the gradual cooling of the weather in October, the demand for soft drinks and catering has slightly declined, and the demand side provides limited support for bottle - chips. The PR price will mainly follow the cost side, and the cost side is weak, so the short - term bottle - chip processing fee has improved. The strategy is the same as that of PTA for the single - side trading; the PR main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On October 13, compared with October 10, the MA2601 closing price increased by 35 to 2342, a 1.52% increase; the MA2605 closing price increased by 3 to 2354, a 0.13% increase; the MA15 spread increased by 32 to - 12, a - 72.73% change; the Taicang basis increased by 82 to - 54, a - 60.29% change. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Taicang Port all increased, with increases of 0.73%, 0.23%, and 3.84% respectively. The regional spreads of Taicang - Inner Mongolia North Line and Taicang - Luoyang increased by 47.46% and 400.00% respectively [1]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.95 to 33.94, a 6.08% increase; the methanol port inventory increased by 5.10 to 154.3 million tons, a 3.42% increase; the methanol social inventory increased by 7.05 to 188.3, a 3.89% increase [1]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.78 to 78%, a 1.01% increase; the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate increased by 3.65 to 72.1%, a 5.33% increase; the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio increased by 3.99 to 104%, a 3.99% increase. Among the downstream, the operating rate of externally - purchased MTO plants increased by 3.82 to 86.28%, a 4.63% increase, while the operating rates of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE decreased by 8.22%, 0.97%, and 0.59% respectively [1]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On October 13, compared with October 10, the L2601 closing price decreased by 54 to 7053, a - 0.77% decrease; the L2509 closing price decreased by 53 to 7071, a - 0.74% decrease; the PP2601 closing price decreased by 29 to 6753, a - 0.43% decrease; the PP2509 closing price decreased by 36 to 6746, a - 0.53% decrease. The prices of various PE and PP products in East China also showed different degrees of decline [5]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 10.59 to 48.9, a 27.67% increase; the PE social inventory decreased by 1.03 to 52.5, a - 1.93% decrease. The PP enterprise inventory increased by 16.11 to 68.1, a 30.96% increase; the PP trader inventory increased by 7.39 to 26.1, a 39.48% increase [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE plant operating rate increased by 1.85 to 83.9%, a 2.26% increase; the PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.23 to 44.4%, a 0.52% increase. The PP plant operating rate increased by 1.14 to 77.7%, a 1.5% increase; the PP powder operating rate increased by 2.01 to 39.3%, a 5.4% increase; the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.05 to 51.8%, a 0.1% increase [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On October 13, compared with October 10, the Brent crude oil (November) price increased by 0.59 to 63.32 dollars/barrel, a 0.9% increase; the WTI crude oil (October) price increased by 0.59 to 58.90, a 1.0% increase; the CFR Japan naphtha price decreased by 10 to 567, a - 1.7% decrease; the CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price remained unchanged at 785; the CFR China pure benzene price decreased by 3 to 703 dollars/ton, a - 0.4% decrease. The spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha increased by 5.2% and 4.7% respectively [7]. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: The styrene East China spot price decreased by 70 to 6680, a - 1.0% decrease; the EB2511 futures price decreased by 53 to 6690, a - 0.8% decrease; the EB2512 futures price decreased by 52 to 6708, a - 0.8% decrease. The EB basis (11) decreased by 17 to - 10, a - 242.9% change; the EB11 - EB12 spread decreased by 1 to - 18, a - 5.9% change. The EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 57 to - 284 yuan/ton, a - 25.2% decrease, while the EB cash flow (integrated) increased by 28 to - 427, a 6.2% increase [7]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.10 to 9.00 million tons, a - 1.1% decrease; the styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 to 19.65, a - 2.7% decrease [7]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.1% to 80.1%, a 1.4% increase; the domestic pure benzene operating rate increased by 0.6% to 79.3%, a 0.7% increase; the domestic hydro - benzene operating rate decreased by 0.8% to 63.2%, a - 1.2% decrease. Among the downstream, the PS operating rate decreased by 1.7% to 54.6%, a - 3.0% decrease; the EPS operating rate decreased by 2.4% to 40.7%, a - 5.5% decrease; the ABS operating rate increased by 1.5% to 71.0%, a 2.1% increase [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Price**: On October 13, compared with October 10, the Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price increased by 46.9 to 2593.8, a 1.8% increase; the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price remained unchanged at 2600. The East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 30 to 4610, a - 0.6% decrease; the East China ethylene - based PVC market price remained unchanged at 4900 [8]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB East China port caustic soda price remained unchanged at 400 dollars/ton, and the export profit decreased by 0.6 to 164.1 yuan/ton, a - 0.4% decrease. The CFR Southeast Asia PVC price and the CFR India PVC price remained unchanged at 650 and 730 dollars/ton respectively, and the FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based PVC price remained unchanged at 605 dollars/ton. The PVC export profit increased by 52.7 to 102.9 yuan/ton, a - 105.0% change [8]. - **Supply (Operating Rate and Industry Profit)**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.4 to 88.2%, a 1.6% increase; the Shandong sample caustic soda operating rate increased by 0.4 to 86.0%, a 0.5% increase; the PVC total operating rate increased by 4.7 to 80.8%, a 6.2% increase. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 50 to - 946 yuan/ton, a - 5.6% decrease [8]. - **Demand (Downstream Operating Rate)**: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3 to 83.4%, a - 0.3% decrease; the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate decreased by 0.2 to

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No specific report industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Group 2: Core Views - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "decline", and the reference view is "oscillation thinking". The core logic is that the upward driving force is weak, and coking coal will oscillate weakly [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation thinking". The core logic is that there are both long and short factors, and coke will oscillate within a range [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - As of the week of October 10, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 752,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14,000 tons. During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, 10 road ports such as Erenhot and Ganqimaodu between China and Mongolia were closed for 7 days and gradually resumed after the festival. The total daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.125 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. After the holiday, the coking coal inventory of downstream enterprises decreased significantly. As of the week of October 10, the coal inventory of independent coking plants was 9.5906 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 786,500 tons, and the coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.8113 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,300 tons. Due to insufficient fundamental support and the reappearance of US tariff pressure, coking coal futures are expected to operate weakly and oscillate in the short term [5]. Coke (J) - According to Mysteel statistics, as of the week of October 10, the total daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.125 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4154 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 tons, and the profit rate of steel mills was 56.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points. Coke's fundamental upward driving force is insufficient, and there is short - term policy risk as Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China. Coke futures are expected to maintain oscillation in the short term [7].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Goldtrust Futures Daily, written by the Goldtrust Futures Research Institute on October 14, 2025 [1] - The core view is to provide investment analysis and suggestions for various futures products, including urea, stock index futures, gold, iron ore, glass, eggs, and pulp [4][7][11] Group 2: Urea Market Analysis - Urea 2601 contract's short - term rise is due to short - term factors. The current price increase lacks fundamental support and may face weakening pressure later [3][4] - In 2025, urea production capacity enters a growth cycle, with over 7 million tons of new capacity. Daily output is around 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventory reaches 1.2 million tons, showing a supply - exceeding - demand pattern [4] - The demand side is in the off - season. Agricultural fertilizer use in autumn is over, the compound fertilizer start - up rate drops to 38%, and industrial demand is weak. There will be no significant improvement in the fourth quarter [4] - In the short term, coal prices support fixed - bed urea costs close to the current price, gas - head enterprises are in the red. There is a potential for the start of off - season storage demand and possible loosening of export policies, so short - term long opportunities can be grasped [4] Group 3: Stock Index Futures Analysis - On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened lower and moved higher. The STAR Market led the index to turn positive, the Shanghai Composite Index filled the gap, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index were relatively weak. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7] Group 4: Gold Market Analysis - Both domestic and foreign gold markets reached new highs with large positive lines, but short - term chasing is not advisable. Low - buying and long - holding is recommended [11] Group 5: Iron Ore Market Analysis - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and hot metal production may decline. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [14] - In the short term, the supply side is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents, but in the long run, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15] Group 6: Glass Market Analysis - The supply side is undergoing clearance. Technically, after recent continuous declines, attention should be paid to the right - side trading opportunities after stabilization. The future driving force lies in policy - end stimulus and anti - involution policies [20] Group 7: Egg Market Analysis - The inventory of laying hens continues to increase, and egg supply is sufficient, suppressing price rebounds. However, based on current prices and costs, each laying hen is expected to lose 16.90 yuan in the future. Short - term long opportunities can be grasped [22] Group 8: Pulp Market Analysis - Today, the pulp price in Shandong has decreased. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September are 2,706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Domestic port inventories remain high. The market is expected to be weak, and selling on rebounds is recommended [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - CP prices have significantly decreased, and the China-US trade friction has flared up again. The LPG market is currently affected by multiple factors, with short - term prices expected to move downward. The overall investment view is oscillating bearish, and it is recommended to temporarily hold off on unilateral trading and consider arbitrage strategies such as going long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, as well as going long on PP2601 and short on PG2601 [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last Friday, the national LPG valuation was 4,428 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. During the National Day holiday, due to factors such as poor logistics, an unexpected decline in Saudi CP in October, and sufficient import arrivals, the LPG price dropped. After the holiday, the downward trend continued, with a general trading atmosphere and no large - scale replenishment [6] 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about [X] tons, including [X] tons of civil gas, [X] tons of industrial gas, and [X] tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrival volume was [X] tons. In addition, in the South China region, some manufacturers increased the supply due to the transformation of raw materials from self - use to external sales, and in the North China region, some manufacturers resumed production, leading to an increase in civil gas supply [4] 3.3 Demand - The LPG combustion demand is in the off - season as the National Day combustion period has ended and the winter heating season has not yet arrived. In the C4 deep - processing sector, the demand for ether - after C4 has increased due to the start - up of some devices. However, the demand for refined oil during the holiday was average, and the gasoline and diesel markets are expected to weaken due to new energy substitution. In the C3 deep - processing sector, the demand for propane and butane is stable, and the profit of PDH enterprises has improved in the short - term, delaying maintenance plans, but the terminal demand is expected to return to weakness after the terminal price adjustment [4] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was [X] tons, and the port inventory was [X] tons. The domestic LPG market storage capacity utilization rate continued to rise. Affected by the CP decline, the market trading atmosphere weakened, and due to factors such as reduced transportation capacity during the holiday, manufacturers faced difficulties in shipping, leading to an increase in storage capacity data. At ports, the inventory gradually accumulated due to high arrival volumes, fluctuating chemical demand, and shipping restrictions [4] 3.5 Basis, Position - The weekly average basis in East China was [X] yuan/ton, in South China was [X] yuan/ton, and in Shandong was [X] yuan/ton. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume increased by [X] lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were [X]%, [X]%, and [X]% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were [X] yuan/ton, [X] yuan/ton, and [X] yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was [X], and the PG continuous first - continuous second monthly spread was [X] yuan/ton. The crude oil production has been increasing continuously, the CP has declined, and due to the tariff friction, the PG - SC cracking spread has fluctuated widely [4] 3.8 Other Factors - In November, OPEC+ will continue to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, which is lower than market expectations. The geopolitical premium has subsided, leading to a downward shift in the price center. The US government has been in a shutdown state, and on October 10, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China. China has countered the US 301 policy by imposing additional port storage fees on US - owned or operated ships [4] 3.9 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - The report provides the 2025 maintenance plans for Chinese major refineries, local refineries, LPG factories, and PDH devices, including information such as the refinery name, location, processing capacity, maintenance device, maintenance capacity, start time, and end time [10][12] 3.10 Market Price and Spread - The report presents the prices, price changes, and spreads of various energy and chemical products, including LPG, as well as the price trends and spreads of LPG in different regions, months, and varieties [2][8][9] 3.11 Research Center Introduction - The Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures has a team of 6 members with professional backgrounds in finance, statistics, and chemical engineering. The team members have rich experience in industrial fundamentals and futures - spot research in the energy and chemical sector, and have won many awards from exchanges and media [132]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹表需受节日影响环比下降，产量略降，库存上升。整体来看，建筑钢材下游需求仍 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 显疲弱，房地产及基建表现继续形成拖累，供需驱动力量有限，，整体维持区间偏弱运 行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷表需受节日影响环比回落，产量小幅下降，库存上升，总体符合季节性表现。钢材 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 整体需求仍然偏弱，库存水平偏高，供需层面缺少持续向上驱动，短期区间偏弱运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 多单离场 | 基本面偏中性。下游成材端体现假期特征，累库明显，观察节后库存消化速度。宏观层 | | ★ | | 面关税扰动再袭，避险情绪升温，盘面恐偏弱运行。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货第二轮提涨延迟，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润一般，现货生产相对稳定。铁水产 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 量维持高位运行，原料需求较稳定。焦炭本身供需相对平衡，跟随焦煤区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 煤矿整体产量有回升预期，进口预计维持高位，供应边际将继续改善。铁水产量绝对水 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 平较高， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 偏空思路 | 贸易风险扰动，焦煤偏弱运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 偏空思路 | 向上驱动有限，焦炭弱势震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 观点参考 参考观点：偏空思路 核心逻辑：截至 10 月 10 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦 ...

2025 年 10 月 13 日 工业硅：上游继续复产，逢高布空思路 多晶硅：周末会议召开，盘面逢低找买点 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,685 | 45 | -370 | 215 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 225,514 | 14,983 | -92,623 | -120,099 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 167,035 | -9,528 | -92,930 | -114,445 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 48,965 | -1,800 | -2,400 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 203,722 | 2,411 | 18,936 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 91,0 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆价格从高位回调。目前随着新豆上市，市场主体开始进行新季豆的收购工作,目前内蒙和黑龙江地区 低蛋白毛粮收购价格太约在1.7-1.8元/斤。39% · 40%蛋白的毛粮收购价格大约在1.85-1.95元/斤，目前企业在 陆续收购。豆一表现强于豆二,美豆方面短期供需两端面临压力,预计后续美豆市场仍 ...