重要消息 2025陆家嘴论坛今日（6月18日）开幕，若干重大金融政策将发布； 华为、中芯国际进台湾实体名单，外交部回应； 国家外汇管理局：5月份外资增持境内股票较上月进一步增加。 重要的消息有哪些 6月18日，主题为"全球经济变局中的金融开放合作与高质量发展"的2025陆家嘴论坛将正式开幕。日前举行的 上海市政府新闻发布会透露，2025陆家嘴论坛期间，中央金融管理部门将发布若干重大金融政策。记者还获 悉，2025陆家嘴论坛期间，上海与香港将签署《沪港国际金融中心协同发展行动方案》。 6月17日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。有记者提问，有报道称，台湾当局迫于美国的压力，已将华 为和中芯国际（SMIC）列入台湾版的实体名单。中方对此有何回应？郭嘉昆表示，中方一贯反对美方将科技 和经贸问题政治化，泛化国家安全概念，滥用出口管制和长臂管辖，对中国进行恶意封锁打压，民进党当 局"跪美媚美"，只会害台毁台。 外交部发言人郭嘉昆表示，中方正组织撤离在伊朗和以色列的中国公民，目前已有部分中国公民安全撤离至周 边国。 国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌表示，5月份，境内外汇供求总体平衡，外汇市场运行平稳。一是跨 境资金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges in forming a consensus on market demand amidst concerns of weak long-term demand, particularly in the context of U.S. stagflation and deflationary pressures in the Asia-Pacific region [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Short-term market consensus is difficult to establish due to prevailing pessimism regarding demand, influenced by external shocks that are hard to predict [3]. - The U.S. government's proposal to significantly increase biofuel blending requirements is expected to drive up domestic demand for soybean oil, leading to a notable price increase [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Impacts - The proposed increase in biofuel blending requirements aims to boost domestic biofuel production and reduce reliance on imported raw materials, which is expected to raise soybean oil prices significantly [4]. - If the proposal is implemented, domestic soybean oil demand could rise from approximately 6 million tons per year to between 7.4 and 7.6 million tons by 2025-2027, representing an increase of about 1.5 million tons [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Projections - Historical demand surges, such as the price increase of soybean oil from $0.30 to $0.87 per pound between 2022 and 2023, suggest that current trends could push prices towards $0.60 per pound [7]. - The anticipated increase in soybean crushing demand could elevate U.S. soybean crushing levels to 2.7 billion bushels, improving the soybean balance sheet and supporting higher soybean prices [7]. Group 4: Geopolitical Considerations - The article highlights the potential for geopolitical conflicts to impact commodity prices, with historical examples showing significant price increases during crises [9][11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to sustained high prices for commodities if supply chains are disrupted [10][15]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The long-term trajectory of commodity prices will depend on the evolution of geopolitical conflicts and their impact on supply chains, with a focus on whether these conflicts will lead to a permanent increase in prices [17]. - The interplay between geopolitical risks and overall demand will be crucial in determining the stability of commodity prices in the future [17].

Group 1 - International spot gold prices experienced a decline after reaching a two-month high, influenced by profit-taking and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - On June 16, gold opened at $3433.00, peaked at $3452.50, and closed at $3383.62, marking a daily drop of $49.73 or 1.45% [1] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and the release of U.S. retail data, which are critical for assessing the economic situation [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold prices broke through a recent trading range but lack confirmation through a pullback, with key support at the 5-week moving average of $3365 [2] - The daily K-line indicates that gold faced resistance at $3455, suggesting a shift to a corrective phase, with immediate support at the 10-day moving average [2] - The expected trading range for gold is between $3400 and $3365, with upward movement requiring a breakthrough above $3415-$3420 to avoid further declines [2]

Group 1 - The global political instability is on the rise, with significant developments in U.S.-China relations and conflicts in the Middle East [1] - The U.S. is experiencing tensions between federal and local authorities, highlighted by the deployment of the National Guard to suppress riots in Los Angeles [1] - Israel has engaged in military action against Iran, targeting sites related to Iran's nuclear program, which has led to a retaliatory response from Iran [1] Group 2 - Oil prices have surged significantly this week, leading the global asset market [1] - Oil ETFs encompass various sectors within the oil and gas industry, including exploration, equipment manufacturing, transportation, sales, and refining, indicating strong market competitiveness and risk resilience [1] - Given the current market environment and policy trends, oil ETFs present a convenient and efficient investment tool for capturing long-term opportunities in the oil sector [1] - Investors without stock accounts can access oil ETF opportunities through linked funds [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 2、基差：现货4437，09合约基差63，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：华东地区合计库存55.38万吨，环比减少4.32万吨 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空 空减 偏空 PTA： 6、预期：以色列袭击伊朗，油价大幅上涨拉动PTA价格上行，但PTA自身前期检修装置陆续重启，叠加新装置投产，供需格局转 弱，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，基差方面，短期内现货市场货源偏紧，现货基差偏强运行，伴随供应回归后续有 回落预期。关注伊以局势发展。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现货 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily: Geopolitical Conflicts Dominate Gold Prices in the Short Term [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of gold prices is mainly influenced by the fluctuations in the Middle East geopolitical situation, and investors are advised to closely monitor the development of the situation [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the precious metals market may be bullish. In the short - term, investors should pay attention to the impact of the Middle East geopolitical situation on risk - aversion sentiment and the statements of the Fed's June FOMC meeting on inflation, the economy, and interest rate prospects [5] Summary by Directory Market Quotes - On Monday, the precious metals market saw gold prices decline and silver prices remain stable. The COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3404.3 per ounce, down 1.4%; the SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 792.3 yuan per gram, down 0.08%. The SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8858 yuan per kilogram, up 0.45%; the COMEX silver 2507 contract closed at $36.37 per ounce, up 0.04% [2] Interest Rate Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 0.2%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 12.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 35.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 7.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 0% [3] - Long - term funds: The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 1.44 tons to 941.93 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 39.58 tons to 14714.94 tons. In terms of inventory, the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 15.1 tons to 1194.3 tons per day; as of the week ending June 6, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 28.2 tons to 1319.3 tons per week [3] This Week's Focus - In terms of data, the overall data this week is light. Pay appropriate attention to the US retail sales data on Tuesday evening, and focus on the Fed's June FOMC meeting early on Thursday [4] - In terms of events, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday; at 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary; at 02:03, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference; at 19:00 on Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision [4] Nanhua's Viewpoint - In the short - term, London gold is expected to fluctuate strongly, with resistance moving up to $3450 and strong resistance in the $3500 area; support is at $3400, and strong support is in the $3300 area. London silver adjusted in a range last week, but there is also strong buying below. The short - term support is at $36 and $35.5, and the strong support is in the $34.8 - $35 area. The upside space has opened up to the $40 area, and there is even a possibility of reaching $45. Short - term pullbacks are still regarded as medium - to - long - term buying opportunities [5] Price and Inventory Data - The report provides price data for various gold and silver contracts, including SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, etc., as well as inventory and position data for gold and silver, such as SHFE gold and silver inventories, CME gold and silver inventories, and ETF holdings [6][15][17] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - Data on the US dollar index, US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread are provided [23]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 17 日 黄金：地缘冲突缓和 白银：高位回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2508 | 792.30 | -0.26% | 785.78 | -1.37% | | | 黄金T+D | 787.93 | -0.37% | 783.63 | -1.16% | | | Comex黄金2508 | 3404.30 | -1.40% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2508 | 8858 | 0.76% | 8817.00 | -0.08% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 8835 | 0. ...

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【行业新闻】 2025 年 06 月 17 日 合成橡胶：地缘问题反复，震荡运行 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,565 | 11,390 | 175 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 159,100 | 206,269 | -47169 | | | （07合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 18,319 | 19,801 | -1482 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 910,041 | 1,167,102 | -257060 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 235 | 310 | -75 | | | 月差 | BR06-BR07 | | -165 | -70 | -95 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | ...