1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate and the expectation of rate cuts in the second half of the year but is more cautious. The US economic fundamentals are still disturbed by geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects. The surge in oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [7]. - Domestic macro: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announces multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations in the second half of the year. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, and the service industry grew faster. The decline in housing prices continued to narrow. Industrial and service production, as well as consumer spending, all showed positive growth [7]. - Asset views: The domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, but the long - term weak dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price and Fluctuation - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 1000 futures had the highest daily increase of 1.10%, while the CSI 500 futures, SSE 50 futures, and CSI 300 futures also rose by 0.67%, 0.66%, and 0.63% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.02%, the 2 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.01%, while the 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures remained unchanged [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index remained unchanged, the euro against the US dollar had no change in pips, the US dollar against the Japanese yen remained unchanged, and the central parity rate of the US dollar increased by 15 pips [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate remained unchanged, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.3 bp, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield remained unchanged [3]. - **Hot Industries**: The comprehensive finance industry had the highest daily increase of 5.03%, followed by the comprehensive, computer, and national defense and military industries [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil rose by 1.27%, while ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 3.76%. COMEX gold decreased by 0.06%, and COMEX silver decreased by 2.20% [3]. 3.2 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and the US economic data shows mixed performance. The economic fundamentals are still affected by geopolitical and trade uncertainties [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum promotes policy expectations. In May, fixed - asset investment, industrial production, service industry, and consumer spending all showed positive trends [7]. 3.3 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented [8]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment in stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures are all expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined. The container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the game between peak - season expectations and price increases [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: In the off - season, the molten iron output has increased, and the market continues to fluctuate narrowly. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The coexistence of low - inventory reality and weak demand expectations leads to continued fluctuations in non - ferrous metals. Zinc and nickel are expected to decline, while others are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil maintains high volatility. Different energy and chemical products have different trends, with some expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [10]. - **Agriculture**: The Sino - US negotiation has made substantial progress, which is beneficial for the cotton price rebound. Different agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to factors such as harvest, planting, and production - demand data [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical impact on stock index futures is controllable, and the A-share market is in a stage of oscillation to find a direction. The core contradiction lies in the need for policy support in the weak reality and the unclear impact of tariff events on the fundamentals. The marginal flow of funds determines the short - term market direction [1][7]. - For stock index options, sentiment repair continuity can be arranged. The trading volume of the options market increased, and the sentiment of each variety rebounded slightly. The defensive sentiment weakened, and the volatility reached the lowest level this year. It is advisable to use collar strategies or bull spreads and also consider light - position double - buying [2][8]. - In the case of treasury bond futures, the profit - taking sentiment may increase. The treasury bond futures mostly declined yesterday. Although the market's risk - aversion sentiment may have increased due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, the increase was limited. With the approaching of the end of the quarter and the acceleration of local bond issuance, the market is cautious about the capital side, and the 10Y treasury bond interest rate is near the key point [3][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The A - share market oscillated and recovered yesterday, with the whole A - index rising 0.85%. The computer, military, and coal sectors led the gains, and the trading volume of the two markets was 1.15 trillion. The number of daily limit stocks increased to 83 [7]. - **Key Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts was - 34.50 points, - 30.78 points, - 48.37 points, and - 76.82 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 7.74 points, 6.14 points, 2.74 points, and - 12.03 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by 18334 lots, 12339 lots, 6879 lots, and 12238 lots [7]. - **Logic**: The geopolitical risk is the main variable in the news, but the market expects a low probability of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked. The core contradiction in the A - share market is the need for policy support in the weak reality and the unclear impact of tariff events. The recent depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar has suppressed the sentiment of the pharmaceutical and new - consumption sectors [1][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The underlying market opened low and closed high yesterday. The sentiment of small - cap stocks recovered. The trading volume of the options market was 4082 million yuan, a 5.08% increase from the previous trading day, with medium - to - high liquidity and active intraday trading [2][8][9]. - **Key Data**: The PCR of the 50ETF and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different rebound strengths, with the 50ETF reaching the level at the end of May [8]. - **Logic**: The downward sentiment of each variety has eased, and the defensive sentiment has weakened. The volatility has reached the lowest level this year, and the cost - effectiveness of short - volatility is low [2][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Use collar strategies, bull spreads, and light - position double - buying [8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Treasury bond futures mostly declined yesterday. The T main contract continued to decline in price after opening, rebounded in the afternoon, but still closed slightly lower. The TL main contract opened higher in the morning but turned down during the day [3][8][10]. - **Key Data**: The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts changed to varying degrees. The central bank conducted 22.05 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases yesterday, with 34.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [8]. - **Logic**: The conflict between Israel and Iran may have increased the market's risk - aversion sentiment, but the increase was limited. The stock market strengthened during the day, showing a stock - bond seesaw effect. The capital side was relatively stable, but the market was cautious due to the approaching end of the quarter and the acceleration of local bond issuance. The 10Y treasury bond interest rate is near the key point [3][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a trend strategy of oscillation, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels for hedging strategies, appropriately focus on the widening of the basis for basis strategies, and choose to steepen the curve in the medium - term for curve strategies [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On June 23, 2025, the initial value of the Eurozone's June SPGI manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the same as the previous value; the initial value of the US June SPGI manufacturing PMI was 52, higher than the predicted value [11]. - On June 24, 2025, the German June IFO business climate index and the US June Conference Board consumer confidence index are yet to be announced [11]. - Other economic data such as the US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21, 2025, and the Eurozone's June consumer confidence index final value are also scheduled for release in the following days [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **US Macroeconomics**: Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said that if inflation remains subdued, she may support a rate cut by the Fed in July. If inflation continues to decline or the job market weakens, the FOMC can cut interest rates [12]. - **Real Estate**: The Hangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center launched a service allowing employees to use their housing provident fund to directly pay the down - payment for newly built commercial housing in Hangzhou, with full online processing support. The online processing function for second - hand houses is under development and will be launched soon [12]. - **Stablecoins**: The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance" will come into effect on August 1, 2025. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has set relatively strict standards for stablecoin issuers, with a high entry threshold. It is expected that only a few licenses will be issued initially, and the licensed stablecoins will have specific uses such as cross - border trade [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - Information about stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data is mentioned in the content, but no specific detailed summaries are provided in the text other than the data presented in the market views section [13][17][29].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 180°转弯。伊朗有限报复，局势没有扩大，特朗普称两国将停火，市场预计中 | | 黄金 | 强势震荡 | 东问题可控，不过 7 月 9 日对等关税或重起。未来中期短期不确定性仍然较多， | | | | 长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【773-801】 | | | | 关注黄金价格波动对白银的影响。目前，金银比价目前回归正常区间，目前白 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 银基本面变化不大，盘面关注 8700 支撑，考虑到白银的品种特性弹性较大，操 | | | | 作上做好仓位控制。【8700-8900】 | | | | 伊朗和以色列已经在美方主导下实现全面停火，原油价格大跌，地缘风险缓和，市 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 场风险偏好恢复，LME 铜库存续创年内新低，引发安全供应担忧，短期铜站稳 7 万 | | | | 8 关口，建议逢低轻仓试多。沪铜关注区间【78000，79000】 | | | | 海外地缘风险缓和，市场风险偏好回升，海内外锌库存去化，短期宏微共振， | | 锌 | 反弹 | ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may consider a rate cut in July if inflation pressures remain moderate, as indicated by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman [3][4] - Bowman's comments align with those of another Fed official, suggesting a shift in focus towards potential labor market weakness [3] - Current data shows that Trump's tariffs have had minimal impact on inflation, allowing for a more favorable environment for a rate cut [3][4] Group 2 - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 29-30, with a 23% probability of a rate cut at that meeting and a 78% probability for September [4] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran's potential retaliation against U.S. military facilities, is causing market fluctuations but has not significantly impacted oil prices [6][8] - Despite rising geopolitical risks, analysts believe that the global oil supply remains sufficient, which helps to manage the associated risks [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The market's risk aversion has quickly receded, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, with domestic SC crude oil futures hitting the limit down at a 9% decline, currently priced at 518.6 yuan per barrel [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - A senior Iranian official confirmed that Iran agreed to a ceasefire proposal related to the conflict with Israel after a conversation with the Qatari Prime Minister, although the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that no formal agreement has been reached [1]. - The current round of Israel-Iran conflict shows signs of easing without causing disruptions to oil supply, which may lead to a bearish trend in oil prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The macroeconomic and supply-demand support for the recent oil price increase is weak, with geopolitical risks in the Middle East being the primary factor for the price premium [1]. - OPEC+ is expected to discuss potential production increases in early July, which may put pressure on oil prices in the near term [2]. - Factors such as low inventory levels, seasonal demand peaks, and declining shale oil supply may limit the speed of oil price declines, suggesting a shift from an upward trend to a wide-ranging fluctuation before a potential downward trend [1][2]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - The oil trading sector is facing mid-term layout opportunities, with geopolitical disturbances potentially having pulse-like impacts, necessitating risk control in trading [2]. - In scenarios where geopolitical factors have limited escalation, a supply-demand perspective may favor short-selling at higher price points [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence among investment banks regarding the relationship between interest rate cuts and gold prices, suggesting that a loose monetary policy may actually be bearish for gold, contrary to common belief [1] Group 1: Investment Bank Perspectives - Citigroup challenges the conventional wisdom that lower interest rates will boost gold prices, arguing that a period of monetary easing could lead to a decline in gold demand [1] - The article highlights that geopolitical risks may have peaked, potentially accelerating capital outflows from gold investments [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The concept of "smart money" is mentioned, indicating that sophisticated investors may be poised to exploit emerging opportunities in the market, particularly in the context of the current economic environment [1] - Both the US dollar and gold are experiencing "counter-consensus trading" opportunities, suggesting that market dynamics may not align with traditional expectations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - This week, oil prices rose significantly due to geopolitical tensions. After the US announced a successful air - strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, Iran declared retaliation and the Iranian parliament approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The uncertainty of Iran's retaliatory actions, scale, and whether the US will deploy ground troops to destroy nuclear projects has increased geopolitical risks. Crude oil may face a sharp increase on Monday. Fundamentally, US commercial inventories decreased by over 10 million barrels, global oil inventories were basically flat, and diesel strengthened significantly due to supply disruptions. The oil futures spread continued to strengthen, approaching the 2022 level. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the absolute price of crude oil may soar to three - digit levels [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Data - From June 16 - 20, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated, with a value of 71.77 on June 16 and 73.84 on June 20; BRENT prices also fluctuated, from 73.23 on June 16 to 77.01 on June 20, with a change of - 1.84; DUBAI prices were around 70 - 71 dollars per barrel [3]. - SC prices had a change of - 4.30 from June 16 - 20, 2025; OMAN prices increased by 0.68 during the same period [3]. - Domestic gasoline prices increased by 30 to 8060, and the domestic gasoline - BRT spread increased by 142 to 3461 [3]. b. Daily News - An Iranian parliamentary committee member said the Iranian parliament concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council [3]. - Russian President Putin agreed with OPEC's view that oil demand will remain high, and Rosneft's head said OPEC + may advance its original production - increase plan by about a year [4]. - Multiple sources said only the ground part of Iran's Isfahan nuclear facility was damaged in the US military operation [4]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu "appreciated" the US air - strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, stating Israel won't be involved in a war of attrition and will neither take unnecessary actions nor stop prematurely [4]. c. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 13, US crude exports increased by 107.5 barrels per day to 436.1 barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 0.3 barrels to 1343.1 barrels per day [4]. - US commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 11.473 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 2.65% decline; strategic oil reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 230,000 barrels to 402.3 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [4][5]. - US crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 67.2 barrels per day to 550.4 barrels per day in the week of June 13 [5]. - In China, the main refinery operating rate rose, while the Shandong local refinery operating rate declined. Both gasoline and diesel production increased, with inventories piling up. Main refinery comprehensive profits rebounded, and local refinery comprehensive profits improved [5]. d. Weekly View - Geopolitical tensions caused a sharp rise in oil prices this week. With the uncertainty of Iran's retaliation and US actions, geopolitical risks soared. Crude oil may face a sharp increase on Monday. Fundamentally, US commercial inventories decreased by over 10 million barrels, and global oil inventories were basically flat. Diesel strengthened due to supply disruptions, and the oil futures spread continued to strengthen. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, crude oil prices may soar to three - digit levels [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is driven by factors such as the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and the uncertainty of monetary policy, but the intraday risk - aversion sentiment has declined [3]. - Copper prices are likely to oscillate around 78,000 yuan per ton in the short - term, with greater upward pressure and relatively weaker downward support due to the possible weakening of demand [14]. - Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, and it may maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - Zinc's supply is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. Demand remains stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment [59]. - For nickel, potential audits in Indonesia may affect production. Nickel ore is expected to stabilize, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak in the off - season, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the next week, with support from low inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weakening downstream demand [89]. - Lithium carbonate's mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be in a weakly oscillating state recently [104]. - The silicon industry chain has a relatively loose supply and slightly improved demand. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Factors**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and monetary policy uncertainty drive funds into the gold market [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, and their relationships with factors like the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][9] Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term oscillation around 78,000 yuan per ton, with upward pressure and weak downward support [14]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [15]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper spot in different regions, as well as import profit and loss and other data are given [19][23] - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of SHFE and LME copper, and their changes are presented [27][28] Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is gradually weakening, low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short - term, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - **Alumina**: Guinea's Axis mine may have short - term production suspension, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation and price oscillation [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost is strongly supported, supply is excessive, demand growth may slow down, and it may oscillate strongly in the short - term with a BACK structure [32]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures and spot are provided [34][52] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually loosening, but the transmission to the ingot end is not complete. Demand is stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and inventory [59]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of zinc futures and spot are provided [60][68] Nickel - **Industry Impact**: Indonesian audits may affect nickel intermediate products and stainless - steel production. Nickel ore is stable, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related raw materials are provided [73][79] Tin - **Price Outlook**: Prices are expected to remain stable, with support from inventory and mine supply, and pressure from weakening demand [89]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of tin futures and spot are provided [90][98] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: Mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating recently [104]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of lithium carbonate futures and spot are provided [105][111] Silicon Industry Chain - **Industry Conditions**: Supply is relatively loose, and demand is slightly improved. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. - **Price and Production Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon spot and futures, and production - related data such as output and capacity utilization rate are provided [117][138]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between the US and Iran, have significantly influenced oil prices, with potential for further volatility depending on supply disruptions [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices initially surged following US military actions against Iran, reaching a four-month high of 588.6 CNY per barrel before retreating as the "war premium" was largely absorbed [1]. - Analysts suggest that for oil prices to rise further, there must be substantial damage to supply, as OPEC+ has considerable idle capacity [1]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could spike to $120 per barrel, according to various financial institutions [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Outlook - Short-term demand for oil appears strong, particularly in North America due to the summer driving season, but long-term growth forecasts vary significantly among major energy agencies [3]. - The EIA predicts a global oil demand increase of 800,000 barrels per day for this year, while the IEA is more conservative at 720,000 barrels per day. In contrast, OPEC maintains a higher estimate of 1.3 million barrels per day [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Risks - The market sentiment is heavily influenced by the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil transport, accounting for about one-third of maritime oil trade [2]. - Analysts from various institutions express concerns over the geopolitical risks, suggesting that if the Strait is blocked, oil prices could rise dramatically, with estimates reaching $120 per barrel [2][4]. - The current geopolitical tensions are expected to elevate market concerns over supply, leading to increased volatility in oil prices [5].

玻璃：需求仍偏弱，预防宏观事件扰动 纯碱：基本面偏空，轻仓参与 正信期货玻璃纯碱周报 20240623 首席研究员：徐婧 投资咨询编号：Z0012091 Email: xujing@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 首席研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号： Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel： 027-68851659 1、纯碱内容要点 | 因素 | 因素综述 | 驱动方向 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 上周纯碱产量75.37万吨（+1.36，+1.80%)，其中轻碱产量33.84万吨（+0.41），重碱产量41.53万吨（+0.95）。纯碱开 | 中性 | | | 工率86.46%（+1.56%），其中氨碱86.57%（+6.53%），联产80.59%（-0.47%）。 | | | 需求 | 上周纯碱企业出货量为71.43万吨，环比上周+4.92%；纯碱整体产销率为94.65%，环比上周+2.61%。上周纯碱需求略有转 | 中性 | | | 弱，下游企业以刚需拿货为主。下周浮法预期略有增量，光伏玻璃有减量预期。5月纯碱进口0.15万吨， ...