投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260210 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外风险偏好回暖，主要资产普遍反弹 海外方面，日本执政党在 2 月众议院选举获压倒性胜利，首相称食品减税将通过非税收 入与补贴审查筹资、不发行赤字国债，日股涨近 4%，日元兑美元升值 0.85%。贝森特称即 便沃什执掌美联储，缩表亦难加速，在压低按揭利率目标下，美联储将以金融稳定优先，避 免激进收紧。市场风险偏好继续修复，美股全线收涨，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.19%，金银分 别修复至 5030、82 美元，铜价、油价延续收涨 1%+。本周关注美国 1 月非农、CPI 以及 12 月零售数据。 国内方面，上周处于经济数据与政策真空期，国内市场跟随海外进一步修复，A 股周一 延续修复，上证指数低开高走收于 4123 点，双创板块领涨，红利风格相对较弱，两市超 4700 只个股收涨、赚钱效应极好，成交额小幅升至 2.27 万亿元，两融余额边际下降，中证 500、 中证 1000ETF 显著净流入。市场正从月初的大跌中逐渐修复：一方面受海外科技股反弹 ...

今日周二(2月10日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于20424一线上方，今日开盘于20500元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报20507元/千克，上涨3.09%，最高触及20963元/千克，最低下探20103元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 另外，美国零售销售数据的发布将在周二成为焦点。预计该数据将显示12月份环比增长0.4%，而11月 份为0.6%。任何美国劳动力市场疲软和通胀放缓的迹象都可能在短期内支撑白银。 在越来越多的人接受美国中央银行今年将再降息两次的背景下，首次降息预计在6月进行，美元跌至超 过一周的低点。这反过来又为无收益的白银提供了顺风，并限制了其损失。交易者现在关注本周重要的 美国宏观数据发布，以获取有关美联储降息路径的更多线索。 美国非农就业数据将于本周三公布，根据彭博对经济学家的调查中值预测，1月非农就业人数可能增加 6.9万人；失业率预计维持在4.4%，略低于去年11月触及的4.5%的四年高点。 除了常规的月度非农就业和失业率数据外，将于本周三公布的1月就业报告还将包含备受关注的就业数 据修订。此前的初步估计显示，截至2 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices have rebounded to $89.20 per ounce, with market focus shifting to upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the delayed January non-farm payroll report, consumer price index, retail sales, and initial jobless claims [1] - The market anticipates only 70,000 new jobs added in January, aligning with White House economic advisor Hassett's view of a slowdown in job growth in the coming months [1] - Weak economic data could strengthen expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, potentially driving gold prices higher [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan's recent comments suggest that the impact of tariffs is mild, primarily borne by foreign entities rather than American citizens [3] - Despite conflicting research indicating an average tariff burden of $1,400 per household, Milan asserts that tariffs have not triggered significant inflation, with core inflation nearing target levels [3] - The Fed's internal view is that tariffs have led to one-time price increases rather than sustained inflation, which may provide more room for rate cuts under the leadership of Walsh later this year [3] Inflation and Market Expectations - The 5-year and 10-year TIPS breakeven rates are reported at 2.521% and 2.337%, respectively, indicating market expectations of an average annual inflation rate of about 2.3% over the next decade [3] - If the upcoming CPI data falls below expectations, it could further weaken the dollar and boost gold prices, with a 17.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March [3] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are providing additional support for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The Russian Defense Ministry reported strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure, while Ukraine claims to have shot down numerous Russian drones, highlighting the ongoing conflict [3] - The situation in the Middle East, with U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, adds to global uncertainty, prompting investors to turn to gold [4] Silver Market Trends - The current trend for silver is upward, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and resistance for short positions [7] - Technical analysis indicates a support level around $83.15, with a bullish MACD pattern suggesting a potential upward trend [7] - Suggested trading strategies include a long position near $77.91 with a stop loss at $77.30 and a take profit target in the $83.69 to $85.90 range [7]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen is experiencing a rebound against the US dollar, supported by expectations of potential intervention by Japanese authorities and bets on the Bank of Japan's policy normalization path [1][3] - The ruling party's recent majority in the House of Representatives raises concerns about public finance pressure while supporting fiscal policy initiatives [2][3] - Proposed fiscal expansion policies may exacerbate Japan's already strained public finances, potentially constraining the yen's performance [3] Group 2 - Global market sentiment is shifting, with reduced tensions in the Middle East leading to increased interest in high-risk assets, causing some funds to flow out of safe-haven assets like the yen [3][4] - The Japanese authorities have indicated they will closely monitor the currency market and retain the right to intervene in cases of significant deviations from fundamental exchange rates, reinforcing market intervention expectations [3] - The current technical analysis shows the USD/JPY exchange rate has broken below key support levels, indicating potential weakness, while moving averages suggest a possible recovery if support is maintained [3] Group 3 - Market sentiment indicates that yen bulls maintain some control under intervention expectations, while bets on Bank of Japan rate hikes also support the yen [4] - However, public finance pressures from fiscal expansion and the attractiveness of risk assets may limit the yen's appreciation potential, suggesting a short-term oscillating recovery pattern [4] - Future exchange rate movements will depend on US economic data, Japan's policy direction, and market intervention expectations [4]

2月10日，COMEX黄金期货报5052.3美元/盎司，跌幅0.5%，COMEX白银报81.6美元/盎司，出现轻微回调。据智通财经报道，2月9日，黄金收涨2.1%，报 5084.2美元/盎司；白银报83.05美元/盎司，收涨8%。 | | | COMEX黄金[GCOOY] 2026-02-10 09:49 | | 价格 ■ 均线 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5147.8 | | | | | | 1.35 % | | 5130.7 | | | | | | 1.01 % | | 5113.6 | | | | | | 0.67 % | | 5096.5 | | | | | | 0.34 % | | 5079.4 | | | | | | 0.00 % | | 5062.3 | | | | | | 0.34 % | | 5045.2 | | | | | | 0.67 % | | 5028.1 | | | | | | 1.01 % | | 5011.0 | | | | | | 1.35 % | | | 07:00 | 13:00 | 18:30 ...

周一(2月9日)，主要受美元大跌推动，现货黄金价格暴涨近2%，回到5000美元/盎司大关上方。投资者正准备迎接本周一系列经济数据，以研判美 联储政策前景。 现货黄金周一收盘暴涨91.82美元，涨幅1.85%，报5057.89美元/盎司。 美元大跌 美元指数周一触及逾一周低点，这令以美元计价的黄金对海外买家而言更具吸引力。 追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)周一大跌0.84%，报96.86。 值得注意的是，主要因凯文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席，美元指数上周飙升近1%。 随着交易员等待美国多项关键数据公布，包括零售销售、通胀数据，以及备受关注的非农就业报告，美元在新的一周开局表现疲弱。 彭博社报道称，中国监管机构已建议金融机构降低美国国债。该消息对周一美元走势构成下行压力。 道明证券全球大宗商品策略主管Bart Melek表示，周一金价主要驱动因素是美元走势。市场对美国经济数据、尤其是就业数据疲软的预期愈发加 深。 Valencia表示，实物黄金购买是推动金价上涨的另一个因素，因为中国人民银行在1月份连续第15个月增持黄金储备。随着越来越多的央行将美元储 备多元化配置到其他资产，贬值交易仍在继续。 V ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Aluminum: It is recommended to hold a light position before the festival. - Alumina: It shows a bottom - up rebound. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,540, up 225 from T - 1, 202 from T - 5, 975 from T - 22, and 2,375 from T - 66. The night - session closing price was 23,625. - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 3,130, up 20 from T - 1, 74 from T - 5, 144 from T - 22, and 265 from T - 66. - Trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts showed different degrees of change compared with previous periods [1]. Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,868, up 44 from T - 1, 96 from T - 5, 117 from T - 22, and 30 from T - 66. The night - session closing price was 2,862. - Trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also changed compared with previous periods [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22,165, up 215 from T - 1 and 325 from T - 5. The night - session closing price was 22,225. - Trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts changed compared with previous periods, and the spot premium and other indicators also had corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 875,000 tons, up 22,000 tons from T - 1, 46,000 tons from T - 5, and 237,000 tons from T - 22. - The warehouse receipts of aluminum ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 164,500 tons, up 9,000 tons from T - 1, 14,100 tons from T - 5, and 86,000 tons from T - 22. - The profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, import and export profit and loss of aluminum, and other indicators changed compared with previous periods [1]. Alumina - The average domestic alumina price was 2646, with no change from T - 1. The CIF price at Lianyungang and other prices also had corresponding changes. - The profit and loss of alumina enterprises in Shanxi also changed compared with previous periods [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 591, up 272 from T - 1. The price difference between Baotai ADC12 - A00 and the total inventory of three places also changed compared with previous periods [1]. Other Raw Materials - The prices of imported bauxite from Indonesia, Australia, and Guinea, and the price of caustic soda in Shaanxi all had different degrees of change compared with previous periods [1]. 4. Comprehensive News and Trend Intensity - The Federal Reserve may reach an agreement with the US Treasury, which may affect the $30 - trillion Treasury market and cause concerns about the loss of central bank independence, rising inflation expectations, and a decline in the dollar's attractiveness. - Wall Street expects the US core CPI to rebound to about 0.3% in January, and inflation is expected to peak in spring and then gradually decline. - The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

投资要点 贵金属：金银进一步下跌，但是年内美联储仍将降息支撑贵金属价格 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4948.00美元/盎司，环比1月30日-33.85美元/盎司，跌幅为-0.68%。周内 伦敦白银价格为74.94美元/盎司，环比1月30日-28.25美元/盎司，跌幅为-27.38%。 来源：中国能源网 华鑫证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4948.00美元/盎司，环比1月30 日-33.85美元/盎司，跌幅为-0.68%。周内伦敦白银价格为74.94美元/盎司，环比1月30日-28.25美元/盎 司，跌幅为-27.38%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 数据方面，美国1月ISM制造业指数52.6，前值47.9，预期48.5。美国1月ADP就业人数变动2.2万人，前 值4.1万人，预期4.5万人。美国1月标普全球服务业PMI终值52.7，前值52.5，预期52.5。美国1月ISM非 制造业指数53.8，前值54.4，预期53.5。美国1月31日当周首次申请失业救济人数为23.1万人，前值20.9 万人，预期21.2万人。 本周多数美联储官员表达了对年内降息的看法。美联储理事米兰表示，美联储今 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，其提名的人选有望推动经济实现15%的增速——这一 目标虽极具雄心，却也清晰映射出凯文·沃什若最终获任该职位将面临的巨大挑战。 特朗普表示，如果沃什"能尽其所能"，那么"我认为我们能实现15%的增长，甚至更高"。"我认为他会非 常出色，而且他是个高素质的人。" 特朗普所指的具体指标——无论是同比增幅还是其他衡量维度——目前尚不完全明确。美国经济今年预 计增长2.4%，而过去50年的平均年增长率约为2.8%。从历史数据看，自20世纪50年代以来，美国国内 生产总值(GDP)仅在少数季度实现过15%以上的增速，典型案例是2020年第三季度——当时企业因疫情 停业后逐步恢复运营，推动经济出现报复性反弹。 值得注意的是，美联储官员在去年12月发布的最新经济预测中，初步拟定2026年仅实施一次降息操作; 然而市场投资者仍普遍预计，本年度内将迎来两次降息周期。 特朗普表示，在上一轮美联储主席遴选中，凯文·沃什本是他的"第二顺位人选"，而最终选择杰罗姆·鲍 威尔担任这一要职"是一个重大战略失误"。在周一播出的一段采访片段中，特朗普特别指出，正是时任 财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦的极力 ...

4、中国人民银行召开2026年支付结算工作会议。会议要求，2026年支付结算工作要紧密围绕" 十五五"规划和金融强国建设目标，推动现代化支付体系高质量发展。加快建设人民币跨境支付 体系，推进跨境支付互联互通，推动跨境支付体系多元化、多层次发展。严格实施支付机构穿透 式监管和支付业务功能监管，充分发挥行政、自律互补作用，塑造合规致远的行业健康生态。常 态长效做好优化支付服务工作，扎实推进支付普惠，提供便捷安全的支付服务。提升支付系统服 务质效，以创新推动行业提质升级。 评 论 及 策 略 铂钯维持看多基调，长期核心逻辑未改，但短期受技术性回调、美联储人事变动等扰动，震 荡加剧。截至2026年2月2日，NYMEX铂、钯价自1月末以来分别回调21.5%、16.9%，核心扰动为特 朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。沃什政策立场偏鸽但不及预期，其提名宣 布后美元短线走强拖累铂钯，且提名需参议院确认，进程及后续政策独立性仍存不确定性，短期 货币政策预期博弈持续。宏观上，鲍威尔司法调查仍动摇美元信用，全球央行购金潮延续，中国 央行连续14个月增持、波兰央行购金计划落地，去美元化下铂钯储备价值凸显；格陵兰岛地缘 ...