Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the bottle chip industry is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottle chip industry maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with absolute prices dominated by the cost side and difficult to have an independent market. Domestic demand growth falls short of expectations this year, and although exports are strong, they are insufficient to absorb the supply increment, leading to a faster accumulation of social inventory. However, the active adjustment by factories increases, and the supply side may continue to show periodic fluctuation characteristics, which will improve the industry's supply - demand situation periodically. The industry's profit is likely to remain sluggish, and the processing fee is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, following the cost side. There are opportunities for operation in the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for the disk processing fee [3][74][75] Summary According to the Directory 1. 2025 H1 Bottle Chip Market Review - In H1 2025, bottle chip prices closely followed polyester raw materials, with significantly increased price volatility and a downward - shifted processing fee center. The market can be divided into three stages: In the first stage, weak oil prices and weak demand led to a downward trend in the polyester industry chain. Bottle chip processing fees first increased and then decreased. In the second stage, the adjustment of the US reciprocal tariff policy caused pulse - like fluctuations in the polyester industry chain prices. Bottle chip processing fees were passively expanded and then quickly weakened. In the third stage, geopolitical risks and domestic PX device load reduction pushed up polyester industry chain prices. The planned 20% production cut in July by bottle chip manufacturers was temporarily restricted by the strong raw materials [13][14] 2. Supply: Periodic Characteristics under Excess Capacity 2.1 Expansion Cycle Nearing Completion, Capacity Growth Rate Slowing - After high - speed capacity growth in 2023 - 2024, the capacity expansion speed of bottle chips slowed down in 2025. In H1, 125 tons/year of new capacity was added. It is expected that the new capacity in H2 will be about 67 tons/year, and the annual new capacity may reach 192 tons/year. The capacity growth rate in 2025 may drop to around 9.4% [21] 2.2 Significantly Increased Supply Elasticity - From January to May 2025, the total bottle chip production was 6.945 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. In Q1, the industry's operating rate was at a historically low level, and production increased moderately. After entering 2025, due to low processing fees and inventory pressure, there were more device shutdowns. In Q2, as the peak demand season approached, the operating rate quickly rose to over 90%. The supply elasticity of bottle chips increased significantly this year, with greater fluctuations in the operating rate [25][27] 2.3 From Price War to Joint Production Cut - Since May, with the increase in bottle chip production, social and factory inventory pressures have increased. In mid - June, the bottle chip industry reached a 20% production cut decision. If the production cut is implemented, it will temporarily relieve the industry's supply pressure in Q3, but there may be a cycle between joint production cuts and price wars in the future [35] 3. Domestic Demand: Growth Falls Short of Expectations, Maintaining Low - speed Growth - In H1, the soft drink industry's demand grew moderately with a slowdown in growth rate. From January to May, soft drink production increased by 3.0% year - on - year, and beverage retail sales increased by 0.2%. The high - base effect, less policy stimulus, and lightweight packaging initiatives in the beverage industry affected bottle chip demand. In the edible oil and sheet material fields, the growth rate also slowed down. It is expected that the annual domestic demand growth rate of bottle chips will fall short of expectations and may return to the 3% - 5% low - growth range [38][41][54] 4. Exports: Strong Momentum, with a Slight Slowdown in Growth Rate Expected in H2 - In H1 2025, bottle chip exports maintained a high - speed growth, with a 21.5% year - on - year increase from January to May. Although there are trade frictions, their impact on the overall export pattern is limited. It is expected that the annual export volume of bottle chips will exceed 6.5 million tons, but the growth rate may slightly decline in H2 due to the high - base effect, with the annual growth rate likely to be in the 12% - 15% range [56][65] 5. Investment Suggestions - Fundamentally, the bottle chip industry maintains a loose supply - demand pattern. Strategically, industry profits are likely to remain sluggish, and the processing fee will continue to oscillate at a low level. There are opportunities for operation in the 300 - 500 yuan/ton range of the disk processing fee [74][75]

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have surged significantly in 2023, reaching a nearly five-year high, with a year-to-date increase of over 40%, surpassing gold's performance [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The primary reason for platinum's price increase is a supply-demand imbalance, particularly due to production declines in South Africa caused by power shortages and frequent strikes [2][3]. - Global primary platinum production is highly concentrated, with South Africa, Zimbabwe, Russia, and the USA accounting for 96% of total output [3]. - In 2025, total platinum supply is expected to decrease by 6.38% to 386.9 million ounces, while demand is projected to grow by 10.8%, leading to a supply-demand gap of 41.2 tons [4]. Market Trends - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant supply shortfall of 25 tons, marking the largest quarterly deficit in six years [6]. - Investment demand for platinum is anticipated to rise by 30% to 8 tons, driven by recovery in the Chinese and North American markets [6]. - The jewelry sector is expected to see a 5% increase in demand, with Chinese market demand projected to grow by 15% to 15 tons [6]. Price Dynamics - As of June 24, 2023, platinum's spot price was around $1,286 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [5]. - UBS has noted that platinum's price increase has surpassed their previous forecasts, indicating a potential for further price appreciation [5]. - Goldman Sachs has cautioned that the current price surge may not be sustainable, attributing it to speculative demand rather than fundamental improvements [7].

研究报告 纯碱周报 供需矛盾突出 纯碱价格弱势调整 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周纯碱主力合约 SA2509 价格在 1151-1193 元/吨之间运 行，价格保持低位震荡。 研究员：侯帆 截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 上涨 17 元/吨，周度涨幅 1.47%，报收 1173 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 上周全国纯碱现货市场价格普遍下跌。 供给方面产量、产能利用率双增，上周纯碱产量、产能利用 率双增，截止 2025 年 6 月 19 日，国内纯碱产量 75.47 万吨，环 比增加 1.46 万吨，涨幅 1.97%。纯碱综合产能利用率 86.57%， 前一周 84.90%，环比增加 1.68%。 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 23 日星期一 库存情况纯碱整体出现累库现象，截止到 2025 年 6 月 19 日， 国 ...

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe rice price surge in Japan, which has led to a situation where rice is becoming unaffordable for many citizens, highlighting the underlying issues of agricultural policy imbalance, extreme weather impacts, and increased demand due to tourism recovery [2][4][20]. Group 1: Price Surge and Public Reaction - The price of rice in Japan has nearly doubled, with a 98.4% increase compared to the previous year, leading to public outcry and unusual behaviors such as long queues for affordable rice [2][4][6]. - The average price for 5 kilograms of rice reached 4,223 yen (approximately 210 RMB), with a year-on-year increase of 97.7% [4][5]. - Citizens are resorting to precise measurements of rice consumption, with families controlling portions down to grams, reflecting the drastic changes in daily life due to rising prices [15][24]. Group 2: Causes of the Rice Crisis - The root cause of the rice price surge is identified as a "rice shortage," driven by long-term agricultural policy failures, extreme weather, and increased demand from the recovering tourism sector [7][18]. - Japan's strict import restrictions and decades-long production reduction policies have significantly limited domestic rice supply, with rice planting area decreasing from over 2 million hectares to 1.344 million hectares by 2023 [17][18]. - The total rice production has dropped from approximately 12 million tons at its peak to about 7.165 million tons in 2023, a reduction of over 40% [17][18]. Group 3: Government Response and Challenges - The Japanese government has attempted to alleviate the crisis by releasing 410,000 tons of government reserve rice, marking the first time since 1995 that such measures have been taken [18][20]. - However, only 7% of the released reserve rice has actually reached the retail market, indicating significant inefficiencies in the distribution system [18][19]. - The Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA) has been criticized for monopolizing the distribution of reserve rice, which undermines government efforts to stabilize prices [19][20]. Group 4: Political Actions and Future Outlook - Prime Minister Kishida has appointed political figure Shinjiro Koizumi to lead efforts in stabilizing rice prices and reforming the agricultural distribution system [20][21]. - Koizumi's strategy includes setting a target price of 2,000 yen for 5 kilograms of rice, which aims to reassure the public and stimulate market activity [21]. - Despite these efforts, experts warn that merely releasing reserve rice will not address the fundamental issues, and a more comprehensive approach is needed to balance agricultural transformation and globalization [24].

2024年夏季以来，受极端高温致大米歉收等因素影响，日本大米价格持续上涨。截至目前，米价是 去年同期的两倍，5月26日至6月1日这一周，日本超市5千克装大米的平均售价为4223日元(约合210元人 民币)。为了平抑米价，日本政府11日启动新一批储备米投放，多地民众大排长龙，一些消费者为买米 彻夜排队。投放储备米能平抑米价吗？"米荒"风波还要持续多久？ 日本新投放储备米共12万吨均产于2021年 中国国际问题研究院亚太所特聘研究员 项昊宇：日本米价难抑，主要原因在于政府反应滞后、储 备米投放机制不合理，根本问题则是供需矛盾未解决。供应端方面，日本政府长期推行的"减反政策"致 使耕地减少，大米产量受限。同时，气候变化让日本自然灾害频发，2023年酷暑、2024年冷春等极端天 气，造成水稻减产且品质下降。此外，日本人口老龄化带来农业劳动力短缺，也影响了大米产量。需求 端方面，2024年大地震预警及台风灾害，引发民众囤积大米；疫情后餐饮业复苏，对大米需求激增。供 应能力下降与需求结构变化叠加，仅靠投放储备米难以平衡供需，米价自然难以有效控制。从政府反应 看，面对米价上涨，日本政府收集信息和预测的速度跟不上供需变化，未 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices continued to decline with a bearish market sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction was obvious. The supply remained high while the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Although the price was at a low level and might rebound, the rebound height was expected to be limited and would depend on export and agricultural demand [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened low and closed lower, approaching historical lows. The supply - demand pattern was loose. The daily output remained high, restricting the upside of the price. The demand was weak, with low agricultural fertilizer - preparation enthusiasm, decreasing compound fertilizer factory operation rates, and a decline in melamine operation rates. The inventory increased due to slow downstream purchases and postponed port inspections. The price was expected to rebound, but the height would depend on exports and agricultural demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1670 yuan/ton and closed at 1646 yuan/ton, down 1.67%. The trading volume was 307097 lots (+20038 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 11936 lots and short positions by 15036 lots. Some futures companies had changes in net long and net short positions [2]. Spot - Upstream factory quotes were mainly stable with a downward trend, and new orders were not smoothly traded. The supply - demand pattern was loose. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1690 - 1730 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The spot market mainstream quotes were stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 84 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton) [8]. Supply Data - On June 12, 2025, the national urea daily output was 20.30 tons, the same as the previous day [10]. Downstream Data - From June 6 to June 12, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.81%, down 3.32 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 63.77%, down 0.54 percentage points from the previous week [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is expected to be mainly in a low - level oscillation due to prominent supply - demand contradictions, with supply rising, demand falling, and inventory accumulation. The long - term pattern is one of surplus, and the weak demand from the construction glass sector, affected by the real - estate market, restricts price increases [8]. - The glass futures market is also predicted to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Factors such as the seasonal weakness in demand during the traditional rainy season, high mid - stream inventory, slow capacity reduction, and the lack of substantial improvement in the domestic real - estate completion stage contribute to this outlook [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market** - On June 11, the main soda ash futures contract SA509 oscillated downward, closing at 1,202 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.08%, with a daily increase in positions of 48,195 lots [7]. - As of June 5, the weekly soda ash production in China rebounded to 704,100 tons, a 2.78% increase from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 80.76%, a 2.19% increase. The enterprise shipment volume was 701,400 tons, a 4.90% decrease, and the weekly enterprise inventory remained at 1.627 million tons, showing a slight accumulation [8]. - **Glass Market** - The demand for glass is significantly affected by seasonal factors. During the current rainy season, construction activities are restricted, leading to a continuous weakening of terminal demand. The high mid - stream inventory and slow capacity reduction process may lead to further inventory accumulation [9]. - The domestic real - estate completion stage has not shown substantial improvement, and although there are expectations for incremental policies, they are unlikely to fundamentally reverse the supply - demand imbalance [9][10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production [12][15][17].

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 11 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

内容价值 相关产品年报名称 《2025年中国聚丙烯市场半年度深度数据目录》 全球PP货物流向半年报：产能过剩，中国增速亮眼 目 录 第一章 报告摘要 第二章 全球PP产能扩张仍在加速，供应逐渐转向过剩 2.1 存量产能施压VS新增产能预期 供应端持续承压 2.2 全球进口贸易流向在市场内卷加剧下悄然生变 报告简介 全球聚丙烯仍处于投产周期，高投产量也使得行业供应逐渐转向过剩，而投产分布来看中国投产产能增速最为亮眼，内贸消耗不及下出口也成了必经趋 势。经过数年的布局中国出口市场在价格优势的带动下体量屡创新高，流向也逐渐发散，使得全球贸易流向也发生变化。本报告结合全球聚烯烃供需格局 以及成本宏观变化对于聚丙烯行业进行现状梳理及未来展望。 2.2.1全球主要进口区域聚焦近洋 贸易伙伴亚洲为主 （1）全球化视角看聚丙烯行业变化，细颗粒度进出口数据可以更好把控PP行业变化，清晰看出区域变动。 （2）报告由上半年行情影响大事记为切入点，进而引出基本面变化，进出口变化以及贸易流向变化多视角剖析行业变化因素。 （3）进口缩量出口扩增的背景下，对于具体货源类型及体量也有更高的兴趣，经过深入调研整理数据图表对现状进行全面分析。 ...