来源：新青年馆 2025 年末，黄金全年暴涨近 2000 美元 / 盎司并刷新历史新高，这一异常表现背后，是全球资金对美元 美债法币体系的信任危机。在 G2 争雄、大国竞争的核心背景下，知名智囊学者刘煜辉在华夏基金年度 对话中，勾勒出 2026 年全球经济格局与投资蓝图，提出以 "哑铃策略" 为核心，押注国运与成长的投资 逻辑。 当前全球经济的核心矛盾聚焦于美元体系的内生脆弱性。2025 年，黄金的暴涨并非偶然，而是全球资 本对美元信用坍塌风险的提前定价。美元之所以尚未垮台，关键在于美国 "All in AI" 战略催生的 "新 钱" 支撑 ——AI 科创资本、区块链及加密货币等资产指数级上涨，带动美国 AI 链市值一年暴涨 7 万亿 美金，英伟达跻身 5 万亿美金市值俱乐部，美股市值 22% 被科创 "七姐妹" 占据，日韩股市也因半导体 板块分别大涨 70% 和 20%。但美国 AI 产业存在致命短板：缺乏制造业支撑，无法形成经济闭环。 OpenAI 等企业前端资本开支高达 5000 亿美金，而会员收入仅 600 亿美金，这种严重失衡导致美国科创 巨头股价自 2025 年 10 月起波动加剧，若 AI 产业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The operation performance of public REITs is the core premise for judging their investment value. The income of REITs essentially comes from the cash - flow creation ability of underlying assets. The differentiation of operation performance is the key to distinguish high - quality assets from weak ones [41]. - In the current stage of public REITs with valuation adjustment, narrowing price difference between primary and secondary markets, and accelerating policy expansion and commercial real - estate pilot, it is recommended to adopt a dumbbell allocation strategy to balance the needs of "defense for income" and "offense for elasticity" [74]. Summary by Directory Market Review: From Valuation Fluctuation to Value Return Market Characteristics and Driving Factors - China's public REITs have entered the stage of normalized development. In 2025, they continued the normalized issuance trend, but the scale declined. By December 20, 2025, 19 public REITs were issued with a scale of 38.7 billion yuan [13]. - From 2021 to 2025, the subscription multiples of China's public REITs fluctuated significantly, driven by product supply scarcity, market sentiment, and expected returns of asset types [19]. - The secondary - market performance of public REITs can be divided into six stages since the listing of the first batch in 2021. As of December 19, 2025, the annual increase of the CSI REITs total return index was +3.2%, significantly weaker than the CSI 300 and CSI Convertible Bonds, only better than the CSI Aggregate Bonds [21][22]. - The return of public REITs is between the CSI 300 and CSI Aggregate Bonds, complementary to the stock - bond hybrid nature of CSI Convertible Bonds. In the long - term, REITs have lower volatility than the CSI 300 and CSI Convertible Bonds, higher than the CSI Aggregate Bonds, and have a low correlation with other assets, suitable for balancing portfolio fluctuations [27]. Institutional Allocation Preference Differences - The holders of the current public REITs' floating shares are highly concentrated, dominated by institutional investors. Securities proprietary trading accounts for 51.3%, followed by insurance funds (19.9%) and industrial capital (13.6%), with the total proportion of these three types of institutional investors exceeding 84% [2][28]. - The structure of floating - share holders of different types of public REITs shows significant sector differentiation. Securities proprietary trading prefers assets with high liquidity and high valuation elasticity, while insurance funds focus on assets with stable long - term cash flows. The proportion of public funds and individual investors is low [2][30]. - The number of REIT products allocated by public fund FOFs has been continuously expanding, but the growth rate has slowed down. From the first to the second quarter of 2025, the allocation was diversified, and from the second to the third quarter, it shifted to concentrated addition of high - attention products [31][36]. Fundamental: Differentiated Performance of Asset Types - **Industrial Parks**: In 2025, the rental rate and rent level of industrial park REITs showed the characteristics of "intensified differentiation and supply - demand game". High - quality science and technology parks and core - location assets showed resistance to decline, while some traditional industrial parks faced rising vacancy rates and falling rents [42]. - **Warehousing and Logistics**: In 2025, the operating income of warehousing and logistics REITs mostly showed a fluctuating downward trend. The rental rate was differentiated, with some maintaining full occupancy and some fluctuating significantly. The rent level generally declined, and core - location assets had strong anti - risk abilities [46]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, consumption REITs showed significant differentiation. In the third quarter, some performed well, while others declined. The market presented the characteristics of "stable high - level rental rate and differentiated rent level" [51]. - **Affordable Housing**: The affordable housing REIT market showed strong operational resilience, with most REITs maintaining a rental rate of over 93% by the third quarter, and the rent level fluctuated minimally [54]. - **Transportation**: The core driving logic of the transportation sector is the recovery of travel demand and the improvement of asset operation efficiency. The traffic volume and toll revenue showed significant differentiation among different REITs [57]. - **Ecological and Environmental Protection**: The operating performance of ecological and environmental protection REITs improved. In the third quarter, the operating income of two listed REITs increased year - on - year, and the waste treatment volume and sewage treatment volume increased [61]. - **Energy**: In 2025, except for one REIT, the operating income of other energy REITs declined significantly. The photovoltaic field performed well, while the wind - power field was generally sluggish [63]. - **Municipal Facilities**: The heating area and charging area of a municipal heating REIT remained basically stable in 2025, but the heat - stop rate and charging rate decreased significantly in the third quarter [67]. - **Water Conservancy**: The operating income of a water - conservancy REIT increased significantly in the third quarter of 2025, mainly due to the 50.91% increase in the supply of raw water [69]. - **New Infrastructure**: Two new - infrastructure REITs disclosed their operating income for the first time in the third quarter of 2025. Their trusteeship service fee collection rates were both 100%, laying a good foundation for subsequent operations [71]. Investment Recommendations: Structural Opportunities under Policy Dividends and Asset Differentiation Primary Market: Select Projects in the Differentiated Market - Since this year, the enthusiasm for REITs new - issue subscriptions has declined, and there have been cases of breaking the issue price on the first - day of listing. The decline in primary - market new - issue returns is affected by the weak secondary - market performance and the narrowing price difference between the primary and secondary markets. Different asset types show differentiated performance. It is recommended to focus on high - quality projects in primary - market new - issue subscriptions and strategic placements, and be cautious about strategic placements with long lock - up periods [75]. Secondary Market: The Dumbbell Strategy Combines Defense and Offense - Public REITs are a supplementary asset class for asset allocation, matching the investment needs of "idle funds + long - term holding". Appropriate allocation of REITs can improve the Sharpe ratio of the investment portfolio, but the allocation ratio should be moderate [77][78]. - In the future, there will be short - term local unlocking disturbances, with a peak in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to follow the "policy dividends + high - quality assets" principle, adopt the dumbbell strategy, explore the stable dividend value of affordable housing and municipal environmental - protection assets, and invest in new - infrastructure sectors such as data centers and clean energy. Also, grasp the incremental opportunities brought by expansion and issuance [82].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a structural investment focus, emphasizing opportunities in high-value manufacturing, aesthetic exports, and passive fund inflows, particularly in the context of improving liquidity in the market [1][6][24]. Core Insights - The A-share market is expected to continue its structural differentiation into 2026, driven by industry prosperity, corporate profitability, and internal and external demand dynamics [1][3][9]. - The profitability forecast for the CSI 300 index has been raised to 7.2% for 2026 and 8.4% for 2027, indicating that market growth will increasingly rely on fundamental factors rather than valuation expansion [4][22]. - The TMT sector has maintained high trading activity, becoming a significant market driver, with passive funds contributing to increased liquidity [8][26]. Summary by Sections Market Performance and Trends - The A-share market is projected to be driven by breakthroughs in AI technology and geopolitical developments, with a focus on a "barbell strategy" that balances growth and dividend assets [2][3]. - Structural differentiation is anticipated to manifest in three areas: industry prosperity, corporate profitability, and internal/external demand dynamics [3][9]. Profitability Forecast - The profitability of the CSI 300 index has been adjusted upward, with forecasts of 7.2% and 8.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a reliance on fundamental growth rather than valuation expansion [4][22]. Capital Flow Characteristics - Key capital flow characteristics include the export of high-value manufacturing goods, aesthetic exports, and the passive nature of incremental capital, particularly following the implementation of the OCI policy [6][24]. - The total scale of OCI accounts for major insurance companies increased by nearly 41 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 compared to the end of 2024, highlighting the growing appeal of dividend-centric state-owned enterprises [6]. Sectoral Performance - The technology sector's net profit share has been increasing, while the financial and real estate sectors have seen declines in revenue and profit shares [10][11][12]. - Companies with over 20% of revenue from overseas have shown significant growth in both revenue and net profit, reflecting the impact of external demand on A-share performance [14][15]. Future Market Expectations - The market is expected to continue exhibiting fundamental differentiation, influenced by technological innovation, corporate leadership disparities, and enhanced external demand [16][20]. - The baseline scenario includes a neutral to accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve and ongoing structural adjustments in domestic policy [17]. Recommended Investment Directions - Three key areas for investment are identified: high-end manufacturing, globalization of Chinese consumer products, and the passive inflow of incremental capital [24][25]. - High-end manufacturing is expected to leverage global R&D and capital advantages, while Chinese consumer products are anticipated to gain traction in overseas markets through effective marketing strategies [25].

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving investment landscape in 2026, emphasizing the importance of technology and AI in driving new opportunities and the need for diversified asset allocation strategies [1][2] Group 1: Investment Strategies - The "barbell strategy" is highlighted as a consensus framework to navigate uncertainty, focusing on high-dividend assets for safety and seeking alpha in technology growth [3] - The multi-asset platform by Huaxia Fund aims to provide comprehensive asset management solutions, integrating various asset classes and research resources [2] - Investment paths are shifting from valuation-driven to profit-driven opportunities, with a focus on structural growth in select industries [9][10] Group 2: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain supportive for equity assets, with a potential shift in liquidity dynamics favoring Chinese assets as a key investment destination [7][8] - The AI sector is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant opportunities arising from hardware and application developments [5][10] - The gold market is seen as a strong investment due to ongoing central bank purchases and the structural decline in trust in the dollar [20][21] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The AI industry is transitioning from a focus on training and models to applications and commercial returns, indicating a broader market potential [12] - The U.S. tech sector, particularly in AI, is expected to maintain strong growth, with a focus on companies that demonstrate clear profitability and growth potential [16][17] - The Chinese market is viewed as having significant revaluation potential, especially in sectors like technology and healthcare, driven by favorable macro conditions [9][11]

时间的河漫过2025年的堤岸，留下错综的印痕。 过去的三百六十多个昼夜足够精彩，世界在宏大叙事中加速旋转——我们见证了AI的浪潮正以前所未 有的力量驱动现实，见证了科技赛道的不断突围，见证了中国资产在变局中涌动出的澎湃动能，也见证 了美元信用版图浮现的裂痕，以及全球资本在失衡与再平衡之间寻找新的坐标系的过程。 然而，当这些史诗级的主题交汇于年末的盘面，有太多人在起伏不定的行情里感受到了失重般的眩晕， 未来仿佛隐于雾中，脉络未清。人们迫切地想要知道，何处将诞生下一只"易中天"般的明星股票，何处 将崛起下一个从寂静中爆发的产业风口，何处将凝聚下一场在市场分歧中悄然形成的共识，以及，何处 才能寻得那一套能够穿透迷雾、真正解释这个时代的投资叙事。 华夏基金多资产全能平台是公司基于资产配置核心理念构建的战略性平台，旨在通过整合全资产类别与 投研资源，为投资者提供一站式、全流程的资产管理解决方案。 多资产全能平台力争打通从资产发现、定义、创设到管理的整体业务链条，覆盖主动权益、固定收益、 指数投资、量化策略、FOF、REITs、跨境投资及另类投资等多个领域，形成超过400只公募产品的多元 化产品体系，能够响应全球配置、行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving investment landscape driven by technological advancements, particularly in AI, and highlights the importance of strategic asset allocation in a changing global economy [2][3]. Group 1: Global Macro Trends - The article emphasizes the acceleration of global capital seeking new coordinates amid the shifting dynamics of the dollar's credibility and the rise of Chinese assets [2]. - It notes that the macroeconomic environment is characterized by uncertainty, with a consensus emerging around the "dumbbell strategy" to balance high-dividend assets with growth opportunities in technology [4][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The "DeepAlpha Annual Dialogue" event gathered experts to discuss investment paths for 2026, focusing on the integration of AI and multi-asset strategies [3]. - The multi-asset platform developed by the company aims to provide comprehensive asset management solutions, covering various investment fields including equities, fixed income, and alternative investments [3]. Group 3: Key Insights from Experts - Liu Yuhui suggests that the "dumbbell strategy" is essential for navigating uncertainty, advocating for a focus on high-dividend assets and long-term growth opportunities [4][6]. - Zhu Qing highlights the continued investment value in A-shares and H-shares, driven by a reallocation of funds from traditional assets to equities [4][8]. - Gu Xinfeng expresses confidence in the valuation of Chinese assets, particularly in AI hardware and applications, as key areas for future investment [4][10]. Group 4: AI and Technology Investment - The article discusses the transition in AI investment from a focus on training models to commercial applications, indicating a shift towards a more sustainable growth model [12][13]. - It emphasizes the importance of selecting individual stocks in the AI sector as the market matures, moving away from broad-based growth [12][13]. Group 5: Gold as an Investment - The article presents gold as a significant asset in 2025, with prices nearing $2000 per ounce, driven by a decline in trust in the dollar and increased central bank purchases [6][20]. - Hua Long outlines the three frameworks for gold pricing: the dollar index, liquidity, and risk events, all of which support gold's mid-term price stability [20][21]. Group 6: Quantitative Strategies - The article highlights the growing role of quantitative strategies in asset management, particularly in a market characterized by structural changes and active trading [18][19]. - Sun Meng discusses the integration of AI into quantitative investment processes, enhancing the ability to capture market trends and generate excess returns [18][19].

Group 1 - Recent regulatory policies have led to a recovery in the A-share market, particularly benefiting the previously declining dividend sector, with the CSI Dividend Index rising over 10% to 10.91% as of September 26, 2024 [1] - The new policies include a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, as well as the introduction of two structural monetary policy tools aimed at the stock market, which will help state-owned enterprises and stable private blue-chip companies enhance their stock repurchase capabilities [3] - Analysts suggest that the recent policies will effectively boost market sentiment and liquidity in the short term, with dividend and dividend-related assets likely to benefit due to their stable cash flows and attractiveness in a low-interest-rate environment [4] Group 2 - The combination of growth and dividend strategies is recommended for a balanced investment approach, with a focus on high-dividend stocks that also exhibit growth potential, particularly in monopolistic industries [5] - Longsheng Quantitative Dividend Fund has achieved a cumulative return of 418.18% since its inception in November 2009, significantly outperforming its benchmark by 349.34% [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese capital market's interest in AI is expected to continue rising in 2025, with events like the "DeepAlpha" dialogue organized by Huaxia Fund aimed at helping investors identify valuable opportunities amidst market noise [1] - DeepTalk, a professional content brand launched by Huaxia Fund, aims to transform professional research capabilities into perceivable value for users, establishing a comprehensive content ecosystem that includes live broadcasts, videos, audio, and articles [1] - Notable economist Liu Yuhui emphasizes the importance of forming a strong industrial ecosystem for the success of the current AI technological revolution, suggesting that China's robust implementation capabilities position it well to achieve this economic closed loop [1] Group 1 - Huaxia Fund's macro strategy researcher Zhu Qing believes that the macro trend for 2026 will focus on the continuation of structural prosperity in industries and a reallocation of funds towards equity assets, with AI being a high-growth sector [2] - Zhu also notes that while domestic equity asset valuations have increased, there remains motivation for continued allocation towards equities, indicating a potential "profit realization period" in 2026 [2] - The investment strategy should focus on performance certainty and the sustainability of industrial logic, with an emphasis on AI and the addition of "dividend-like" assets for portfolio stability [2] Group 2 - Despite the impressive performance of the tech sector in 2025, Huaxia Fund analysts believe the AI cycle is not over and is gradually deepening, with significant investment opportunities still emerging [2] - Fund manager Gu Xinfeng draws parallels between the development of mobile internet and the current AI progress, suggesting that AI is in its "first half," with its potential to empower various industries just beginning [2]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the potential for gold prices to surge due to a crisis of trust in the US dollar and treasury system, with predictions of gold reaching nearly $2000 per ounce in 2025, reflecting a significant shift in global capital dynamics [1][11][12]. Group 1: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - The investment strategy for 2026 is suggested to be based on a "dumbbell strategy," focusing on dividend stocks on one end and investments that bet on national fortunes and growth on the other [6][83][84]. - Specific investment directions include AI edge applications, gold and non-ferrous metals, and opportunities in energy and technology sectors, particularly in response to US-China competition [7][85][68]. Group 2: Economic Context and Market Dynamics - The current economic landscape is characterized by a G2 competition narrative, with the US heavily investing in AI as a means to secure its economic future, which has led to a significant increase in the market capitalization of AI-related companies [13][14][96]. - The US AI sector faces challenges in forming a complete economic loop, as it lacks a robust manufacturing base to support the backend of AI applications, which may hinder its long-term success [3][120][121]. Group 3: Future Projections and Risks - There is a potential scenario where a collapse of the dollar could trigger an unprecedented rise in gold prices, with the possibility of a significant economic shift favoring China as it implements large-scale domestic policies akin to the Marshall Plan [4][82][114][115]. - The discussion emphasizes that the future of AI and its economic implications may ultimately rest with China, which possesses the necessary manufacturing capabilities and ecosystem to create a complete economic loop [38][122][128].

当人工智能的浪潮席卷千行百业，全球科技巨头加速算力布局，资本市场关于AI的热度亦如燎原之火 蔓延。在一片喧嚣之中，华夏基金举办的"年度对话|DeepAlpha：科技引领下的全球多元配置"，正试图 以冷静分析帮助投资者穿透市场噪音，捕捉价值赛道。 本次年度对话汇聚知名经济学家刘煜辉以及华夏基金祝青、顾鑫峰、施知序、郭琨研、孙蒙以及华龙等 主被动、策略、量化等多位嘉宾，围绕市场新格局、新动能与新机遇，从宏观到科技、从全球到配置进 行多维度解读，旨在为投资者在AI浪潮与宏观大势中提供追踪Beta、发现Alpha的思考锚点。 他认为，本轮AI科创革命成功的关键，是AI后端能否形成强大的产业生态，形成经济闭环。我国凭借 强大的落地能力和完备的产业生态，有望实现这一闭环。面对宏观不确定性，他主张以"哑铃策略"进行 有效风控，一端聚焦高股息资产，另一端布局长期结构性增长机会，如循环经济、新能源产业、深空航 天产业等方向。 华夏基金宏观策略研究员祝青则从更具操作性的年度视角出发，将宏观线索映射为具体的策略方向。她 认为，2026年的宏观主线或是"行业结构性景气格局延续"与"资金向权益资产的再配置"，一方面，AI是 景气高增的 ...