红利_电池！哑铃策略在当下市场优势何在 20251208 摘要 哑铃策略在震荡市中适用，通过配置稳健资产（如红利低波基金）和高 弹性资产（需控制仓位）来平衡风险和收益，例如在 3,800 点震荡区间， 可将科技股盈利转移至红利资产。 南方红利低波 50 ETF 连接跟踪标普红利低波 50 指数，该指数筛选 A 股 市场中高分红、低波动的 50 只股票，包括银行、煤炭、基建等，旨在 提供稳健增长的投资组合。 港股与 A 股走势差异源于受影响因素不同，港股受全球资本流动和海外 政策影响较大，A 股则更多受国内经济和政策驱动。港股科技板块价格 波动通常比 A 股科技板块更大。 红利类股票波动性较低，因其分红能力强、股息率高、现金流充足，经 营稳定，不易受宏观经济影响，且投资者可获得股价上涨和定期分红的 双重收益。 当前 A 股科技板块经历上涨后处于相对高位，而恒生科技指数已消化今 年涨幅，位置相对安全，但仍需耐心和分批定投策略。 Q&A 当前市场震荡情况下，如何进行投资配置比较合适？ 当前市场震荡情况下，可以考虑使用哑铃策略进行投资配置。哑铃策略是一种 在不确定性较高的市场环境中，通过同时配置稳健资产和高波动资产来 ...

Group 1 - The bond market in November experienced a short-term bottoming and recovery process, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.80% and ending at 1.84%, reaching a high of 1.87% in early December [2][7] - Risk appetite for the bond market decreased as the stock market entered a consolidation phase, leading to a balanced market with low volatility [2][7] - The uncertainty surrounding new fund sales regulations contributed to institutions seeking hedging strategies [2][7] Group 2 - Historical analysis of December bond market performance over the past five years shows that long-term interest rates typically decline, driven by expectations of "loose monetary policy" and year-end performance demands [15][16] - The 2025 December bond market may face challenges due to a hawkish central bank stance, limiting consensus on year-end interest rate cuts [37] - The supply of government bonds is expected to decrease in December, reducing financing pressure and stabilizing the market [34] Group 3 - Marginal changes in fundamental data, particularly inflation and credit metrics, are anticipated to impact market sentiment [38] - November CPI is expected to rise to around 0.6% due to food price increases, while PPI may stabilize around -2.0% [38][39] - Credit data indicates a potential recovery, with state-owned banks showing significantly lower net purchases compared to previous years [42] Group 4 - The bond market is expected to return to a high volatility state in mid to late December, presenting opportunities for potential gains [45] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, focusing on stable short-term positions and value in mid-term bonds [45][46] - Long-term positions may face volatility risks, particularly with the uncertainty surrounding new redemption fee regulations [49]

[Table_Title] 12 月债市，乍暖还寒 [Table_Title2] 利率月报 [Table_Summary] ► 11 月债市，风浪再起 回顾 11 月债市，长端利率经历了短期筑底回升的过程。 10 年国债收益率起步于 1.80%，月末收于 1.84%，12 月初再 遇调整，高点达到1.87%。从市场定价内容来看，随着股市行 情进入上涨后的休整阶段，11 月风险偏好对于债市的扰动明 显减弱；经济的弱现实与低于预期的宽货币，令债市多空力量 均衡，陷入低波状态；最后则是基金销售新规迟迟未能落地， 其中的不确定性或成为机构避险的理由。 ►年末季节性下行，或在今年弱化 复盘过往五年的 12 月债市表现，长端利率多经历下行行 情，虽然背后的直接理由各不相同，但或许可以总结为四个共 同的底层逻辑，市场基于经济年末冲刺或年初开门红的"宽货 币"预期、交易盘的冲刺需求、配置盘的抢跑行为、央行年末 惯例的维稳倾向。规律能否重现，我们可以从以上四个变量 着手，进行预判。 2025 年 12 月债市面临的状况或是，央行鹰派态度下，机 构对于年末降息的一致预期或难凝聚；交易盘缺乏稳定负债， 年末进行业绩冲刺的能力及意愿 ...

Group 1 - In November, the bond market experienced a short-term bottoming and recovery process, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.80% and ending at 1.84%, reaching a high of 1.87% in early December [3][57] - The risk appetite for the bond market decreased significantly as the stock market entered a consolidation phase, leading to a balance of bullish and bearish forces in the bond market [3][57] - The uncertainty surrounding the delayed implementation of new fund sales regulations has become a reason for institutions to seek hedging [3][57] Group 2 - The seasonal downward trend in December may weaken this year, as past five years' data shows that long-term rates typically decline, driven by expectations of "loose monetary policy" and year-end performance needs [4][54] - The bond market in December 2025 may face challenges due to the central bank's hawkish stance, limited performance improvement from institutions, and ample supply in the primary market at the beginning of the next year [4][54][35] - The characteristics of year-end rate declines may weaken marginally, with the trend still needing to wait for adjustments and corrections [4][35] Group 3 - Attention should be paid to marginal changes in the fundamentals, as the market has formed new trading habits since 2025, where data that does not meet expectations may be selectively ignored [5][55] - Inflation changes could pose short-term risks to the bond market, with November CPI expected to rise to around 0.6% due to food prices and a low base effect [5][55][36] - The demand side showed signs of recovery in November, with state-owned and policy banks net buying only 55 million yuan in bills, significantly lower than the same period in 2023-2024 [5][55][39] Group 4 - The market may return to a high volatility state in mid to late December, where it is essential to avoid net value adjustments caused by fluctuating interest rates and seize potential profit opportunities from market volatility [6][41] - The current yield curve is relatively steep, suggesting ample room for flattening, and a barbell strategy may be a better response tool [6][41][56] - For defensive positions, stable valuation or high coupon yield options should be considered, while the 5-year government bonds offer good value after the institutional profit-taking in late November [6][56]

长城基金/供图 证券时报记者 李明珠 2025年港股市场表现亮眼，恒生指数与恒生科技指数领跑全球主要股票市场。日前，长城基金国际业务 部副总经理曲少杰在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，2026年港股市场有望走强，当前估值已进入"放心 区间"，需理性看待市场波动与上涨节奏。 曲少杰认为，美国步入降息周期，理论上有利于成长股，美联储降息这一单一宏观变量并非决定股价的 核心因素，投资仍需回归行业趋势与企业自身成长潜力，并持续看好科技创新驱动的结构性机会以及具 备高盈利壁垒和强大护城河的新消费领域优质企业。 三大趋势支撑2026年港股 曲少杰深耕海外市场，其投资风格稳健且灵活，所管产品中长期业绩表现突出。他认为，明年港股大概 率实现正收益，但投资者应理性看待涨幅，因其更多取决于上市公司业绩增速。今年市场走强主要缘于 估值修复，当前估值处于合理偏低水平，并未出现泡沫。 曲少杰对2026年港股持乐观态度，但他强调健康的上涨应源于企业盈利的切实提升，而非单纯依赖估值 扩张。他同时指出，"逆向思考"是其投资的关键，需警惕涨幅过大资产的风险，并关注超跌优质资产的 机会。 曲少杰指出，港股走强主要受益于三大趋势：首先，科技创新强周期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to perform well in 2026, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index leading global markets, as valuations have entered a "reassuring range" [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to achieve positive returns in 2026, driven by company earnings growth rather than mere valuation expansion [2][3] - Three major trends are supporting the strength of the Hong Kong stock market: 1. A strong cycle driven by technological innovation, particularly in AI and new consumption sectors [2][3] 2. Continued foreign capital inflow, recognizing the long-term value of Chinese core assets [3] 3. Southbound capital providing liquidity support, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus should be on high-quality assets with strong profit margins and solid competitive advantages, as these are crucial for long-term competitiveness [4][5] - The investment strategy emphasizes a "barbell strategy," balancing stable high-dividend assets with growth stocks to capture market opportunities [6][7] - Companies with strong AI capabilities and high dividend yields are highlighted as having the highest earnings certainty and providing stable returns [3][4]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 07 日 关注成长板块的配置价值 ——债市专题研究 核心观点 中期维度，政策催化下慢牛预期依然稳固，权益市场风险偏好近期逐步回升，科技板 块转债作为高弹性品种，其股性价值有望得到进一步巩固。在资产荒格局延续的背景 下，"固收+"资金对转债，特别是具备成长确定性的科技品种，配置需求依然旺盛。 ❑ 转债市场走势先下后上，整体呈现成交缩量、区间震荡，估值压缩。 近期在债券市场的持续调整下，纯债基金的赎回规模明显放大，市场流动性收缩 明显，带动固收+基金赎回规模同步扩大，但转债市场通过估值波动熨平债券市场 震荡影响，总体持仓体验更优。中期维度，虽然转债供给持续缩量，但市场增量 资金充足，预计转债估值回调空间有限，同时随着投资者止盈预期接近尾声，权 益慢牛预期下市场对于高估值的标的容忍度有所提升。 ❑ 近期市场缩量盘整，但科技板块成交依旧活跃，量价均已呈现企稳态势。 10 月以来，科技板块跟随股市同步调整，虽然板块转债估值被动收缩，但依旧呈 现较为明显的抗跌性；万得可转债信息技术指数近两月回调 2.43%，表现整体优 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a "slow bull" phase with a focus on structural trends, prompting investors to consider appropriate investment strategies as the year ends [1][2]. Market Performance Overview - The market in 2025 has experienced various phases, starting with a rise in technology stocks early in the year, followed by a resilient performance amid geopolitical tensions, particularly highlighted by strong gains in blue-chip and banking stocks [1]. - In the latter half of the year, technology stocks regained leadership, driven by favorable factors, leading to a rapid market uptrend in August, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points [1]. Recent Market Trends - Recently, the market has shown weakness, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points in mid-November and reaching a low of 3816 points, although there has been a rebound [2]. - Despite the recent pullback, the overall market fundamentals remain strong, with continuous improvement in listed company performance and active market liquidity [2]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - A cautious approach is recommended, utilizing a "barbell strategy" which involves maintaining a balanced portfolio with both stable blue-chip stocks and high-growth stocks [3]. - The barbell strategy consists of three components: maintaining a moderate position (50-70% recommended), diversifying between stable blue-chip stocks with high dividend yields and growth stocks with potential for future gains, and being adaptable to market changes over time [3][4]. Structural Market Dynamics - The market in 2025 has displayed a rich structural trend, with blue-chip and growth stocks representing the two ends of this spectrum. Concentrating on one end can yield higher returns during clear trends, while a balanced approach is necessary during uncertain periods [4]. - As policies are implemented and the market stabilizes, a new upward trend may emerge, allowing for strategic adjustments in investment approaches [4].

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a significant decline with a trading volume of 280 billion, while the CPO sector saw a brief surge in early trading [1] - The AI ETF from Huaxia on the ChiNext index rose over 2% before turning negative, with a net subscription of 28 million units as of the report [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF expanded its gains to 0.59%, attracting a net inflow of 140 million units during the session, marking 18 consecutive days of inflows totaling 2.027 billion [1] Group 2 - Recent developments in AI, including Alibaba's increased focus on AI applications and ByteDance's launch of the Doubao mobile assistant, are driving demand for computational power [1] - The stock price of Credo surged after exceeding earnings expectations, prompting Morgan Stanley to significantly raise its production forecast for Google's TPU [1] - The market is shifting styles as year-end approaches, with increased attention on dividend strategies [1]

日本加息对全球市场有何影响？20251202 摘要 日本央行加息预期引发市场波动，与此前预期新首相上台后延续宽松政 策不同，当前预期基于日本最新数据和通胀指标，显示宽松政策难以为 继，导致市场调整并转向加息预期。 PMI 数据显示企业主动去库存，11 月外需回升但生产端偏弱，企业为避 免亏损缩减生产和采购，用现有库存满足需求。此举短期增加经济压力， 但中长期有助于重启库存周期，或在明年下半年改善供需关系并推动 PPI 回升。 2025 年 A 股流动性充裕，企业存款活化显著，活期存款占比提升。财 政发债增加企业现金流，反内卷和贸易战导致制造业投资下滑，资金流 入股市，风险偏好上升亦促使企业资金入市，预计该趋势在 2026 年上 半年持续。 当前债券市场表现不佳，但央行关注价格而非数量，下半年利率区间维 持在 1.3%-1.5%。降息可能要等到 2026 年，目前不宜看空债券市场， 关注中央经济工作会议是否带来超预期政策调整。 Q&A 日本央行加息预期对全球市场产生了哪些影响？ 日本央行加息预期对全球市场产生了显著影响。首先，日元套息交易的反转导 致投资者卖出高息资产，回流日元，这直接推动了全球债券市场利率上行 ...