Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding economic cycles and adapting investment strategies accordingly, focusing on the interplay between risk and return, and the need for a dynamic asset allocation approach to navigate the evolving market landscape [1][2][3]. Group 1: Strategy Implementation - Investment strategies should be clearly planned at the end of each year, balancing proactive measures with responsive tactics to adapt to market changes [1]. - The essence of asset management strategies lies in seeking a dynamic balance among profitability, liquidity, and safety, transforming vague wealth goals into actionable frameworks [3]. Group 2: 2025 Strategy Review - The major shift in asset allocation for 2025 was driven by a change in risk premiums, transitioning from "conflict premium" to "repair premium" due to the stabilization of US-China trade tensions [4]. - AI+ technology is identified as a core driver of structural opportunities across various sectors, enhancing production efficiency and creating a viable industrial dividend chain [5]. - A supportive funding environment characterized by abundant liquidity has facilitated the concentration of capital in high-certainty and high-growth areas, enhancing the returns on quality assets [6]. Group 3: 2026 Asset Allocation Strategy - The risk premium for Chinese assets is expected to continue its downward trend, supported by the stabilization of external conflicts and the resonance of institutional reforms [10]. - The liquidity environment is anticipated to shift from abundance to structural adaptation, with a focus on high-certainty sectors, necessitating a refined asset selection approach [11]. - The correlation between inflation and profitability is expected to highlight the value of yield strategies, making fixed-income assets a key choice for stable returns [12]. - The focus of fiscal policy is projected to shift towards stability and social welfare, emphasizing structural opportunities over total economic growth [13]. - The narrative-driven trading approach is expected to weaken, with a shift towards profitability verification as the primary driver for industry selection [14]. Group 4: Key Conclusions for 2026 - The effective asset allocation strategy for 2026 is rooted in the interplay of declining risk premiums, rising profitability, and structural differentiation [16]. - The focus will be on midstream industries, which are expected to benefit from improved profitability and resilience against demand fluctuations [17]. - The use of tools like ETFs will remain crucial for efficiently capturing structural opportunities in specific sectors [17].

Core Viewpoint - Two ETFs under China Merchants Fund announced dividends this month, highlighting the growth of dividend investment strategies in the market [1] Group 1: Dividend Announcements - The CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209) will distribute a dividend of 0.003 yuan per share, with a dividend ratio of 0.3%, marking its sixth dividend distribution this year [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) will distribute a dividend of 0.004 yuan per share, also with a dividend ratio of 0.3%, representing its eighth dividend distribution this year [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Deep Value Strategy: Represented by the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550), which tracks the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index, focusing on sectors like finance and utilities with defensive attributes. The current dividend yield exceeds 6%, supported by valuation advantages in the Hong Kong market and state-owned enterprise dividend policies [1] - Value Growth Strategy: Centered on the CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209), which emphasizes a "high dividend + high profitability quality" stock selection strategy, focusing on high-quality companies in consumer and pharmaceutical sectors. Historical performance shows this index has outperformed mainstream broad-based indices while maintaining a dividend yield of 3%-5% and achieving a balance between defensiveness and growth potential [2] - Investors can choose based on risk preferences: conservative investors may prefer the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF, while aggressive investors may focus on the CSI Dividend Quality ETF. A "barbell strategy" is suggested for dynamic adjustment of the allocation between the two products, with regular rebalancing to optimize overall portfolio performance [2]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on the cyclical resonance of the Kondratiev and Juglar cycles to capture long-term trend opportunities in asset allocation for 2026 [1][18] - It advocates for a defensive base using high-quality fixed-income assets in a low-interest-rate environment to hedge against inventory cycle risks [1][18] - The article suggests that structural opportunities should be prioritized over total volume, avoiding real estate adjustments and traditional capacity clearance while embracing policy guidance and technological iteration [1][18] Strategy Implementation Rules - Clear planning for the next year's strategy is essential, balancing "strategy" and "action" to achieve the highest level of execution [19] - Understanding asset pricing fundamentals is necessary but not sufficient; strategies must focus on future pricing rather than past norms [20] - The core of investment lies in balancing risk and return, with a disciplined approach to risk management being paramount [20] 2025 Strategy Review - The restructuring of risk premiums was a significant change in asset allocation for 2025, transitioning from "conflict premium" to "repair premium" due to the stabilization of US-China trade tensions [22] - AI+ has emerged as a core technology driving structural opportunities across various sectors, enhancing production efficiency and demand scenarios [23] - A supportive funding environment characterized by abundant liquidity has facilitated the concentration of capital in high-certainty and high-growth areas [24] 2026 Asset Allocation Strategy - The risk premium for Chinese assets is expected to continue its downward trend, supported by the "15th Five-Year Plan" and adjustments in US global competition strategies [27] - Liquidity conditions are shifting from abundance to structural adaptation, with a focus on high-certainty sectors [28] - The alignment of inflation and profitability is expected to highlight the value of yield strategies, making fixed-income assets a core choice for asset allocation [29] - The focus will shift from total economic volume to structural opportunities, with fiscal policy expected to play a more significant role than monetary policy [30] - The narrative-driven trading approach is anticipated to weaken, with market pricing returning to profitability verification as the core driver [31] - The strategy will evolve towards a focus on midstream industries, driven by policies that constrain supply and enhance profitability [32] 2026 Asset Allocation Conclusions - The effectiveness of the 2026 asset allocation strategy is rooted in the threefold resonance of declining risk premiums, rising profitability, and structural differentiation [14] - The allocation will emphasize yield strategies while focusing on midstream manufacturing and technology-enabled sectors [14] - Industry selection will hinge on three dimensions: certainty of profitability recovery, overseas business share, and adaptability to technological innovation [15] - Tools like ETFs will remain efficient vehicles for implementing strategies and capturing structural opportunities in niche areas [16]

市场狂欢时，最了解公司的人正在悄然离场。 数据显示，2025年下半年以来A股重要股东减持金额已接近900亿元。 2025年9月的A股市场呈现冰火两重天的奇特景象。 上证指数连续突破3600点、3700点、3800点整数关口，两市成交额频频突破万亿元，而与此同时上市公司重要股东减持计划也密集涌现。 据统计，从7月初到9月12日，A股上市公司重要股东减持金额累计约为889.81亿元，净减持金额约为662.23亿元。 仅9月前半个月，A股上市公司发布的股东减持相关公告数量就已经超过500份。 更令人惊讶的是，9月前10天，就有400多家公司股东成功套现190亿元，同比实现翻倍增长。 这股减持潮不仅来势汹汹，而且涉及范围广泛，从半导体、人工智能到生物医药、新能源，几乎覆盖了所有热门赛道。 2025年A股市场的减持现象呈现出规模大、范围广、主体多元的特点。 根据执中ZERONE统计，2025年上半年，共有428家A股上市公司的股东进行减持，涉及1315起减持事件，对应减持交易金额近600亿元。 这一数据相较于2024年同期，减持事件数量、减持股数、减持金额均实现约翻倍增长。 进入下半年后，减持步伐进一步加快。 7月份， ...

红利_电池！哑铃策略在当下市场优势何在 20251208 摘要 哑铃策略在震荡市中适用，通过配置稳健资产（如红利低波基金）和高 弹性资产（需控制仓位）来平衡风险和收益，例如在 3,800 点震荡区间， 可将科技股盈利转移至红利资产。 南方红利低波 50 ETF 连接跟踪标普红利低波 50 指数，该指数筛选 A 股 市场中高分红、低波动的 50 只股票，包括银行、煤炭、基建等，旨在 提供稳健增长的投资组合。 港股与 A 股走势差异源于受影响因素不同，港股受全球资本流动和海外 政策影响较大，A 股则更多受国内经济和政策驱动。港股科技板块价格 波动通常比 A 股科技板块更大。 红利类股票波动性较低，因其分红能力强、股息率高、现金流充足，经 营稳定，不易受宏观经济影响，且投资者可获得股价上涨和定期分红的 双重收益。 当前 A 股科技板块经历上涨后处于相对高位，而恒生科技指数已消化今 年涨幅，位置相对安全，但仍需耐心和分批定投策略。 Q&A 当前市场震荡情况下，如何进行投资配置比较合适？ 当前市场震荡情况下，可以考虑使用哑铃策略进行投资配置。哑铃策略是一种 在不确定性较高的市场环境中，通过同时配置稳健资产和高波动资产来 ...

Group 1 - The bond market in November experienced a short-term bottoming and recovery process, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.80% and ending at 1.84%, reaching a high of 1.87% in early December [2][7] - Risk appetite for the bond market decreased as the stock market entered a consolidation phase, leading to a balanced market with low volatility [2][7] - The uncertainty surrounding new fund sales regulations contributed to institutions seeking hedging strategies [2][7] Group 2 - Historical analysis of December bond market performance over the past five years shows that long-term interest rates typically decline, driven by expectations of "loose monetary policy" and year-end performance demands [15][16] - The 2025 December bond market may face challenges due to a hawkish central bank stance, limiting consensus on year-end interest rate cuts [37] - The supply of government bonds is expected to decrease in December, reducing financing pressure and stabilizing the market [34] Group 3 - Marginal changes in fundamental data, particularly inflation and credit metrics, are anticipated to impact market sentiment [38] - November CPI is expected to rise to around 0.6% due to food price increases, while PPI may stabilize around -2.0% [38][39] - Credit data indicates a potential recovery, with state-owned banks showing significantly lower net purchases compared to previous years [42] Group 4 - The bond market is expected to return to a high volatility state in mid to late December, presenting opportunities for potential gains [45] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, focusing on stable short-term positions and value in mid-term bonds [45][46] - Long-term positions may face volatility risks, particularly with the uncertainty surrounding new redemption fee regulations [49]

[Table_Title] 12 月债市，乍暖还寒 [Table_Title2] 利率月报 [Table_Summary] ► 11 月债市，风浪再起 回顾 11 月债市，长端利率经历了短期筑底回升的过程。 10 年国债收益率起步于 1.80%，月末收于 1.84%，12 月初再 遇调整，高点达到1.87%。从市场定价内容来看，随着股市行 情进入上涨后的休整阶段，11 月风险偏好对于债市的扰动明 显减弱；经济的弱现实与低于预期的宽货币，令债市多空力量 均衡，陷入低波状态；最后则是基金销售新规迟迟未能落地， 其中的不确定性或成为机构避险的理由。 ►年末季节性下行，或在今年弱化 复盘过往五年的 12 月债市表现，长端利率多经历下行行 情，虽然背后的直接理由各不相同，但或许可以总结为四个共 同的底层逻辑，市场基于经济年末冲刺或年初开门红的"宽货 币"预期、交易盘的冲刺需求、配置盘的抢跑行为、央行年末 惯例的维稳倾向。规律能否重现，我们可以从以上四个变量 着手，进行预判。 2025 年 12 月债市面临的状况或是，央行鹰派态度下，机 构对于年末降息的一致预期或难凝聚；交易盘缺乏稳定负债， 年末进行业绩冲刺的能力及意愿 ...

Group 1 - In November, the bond market experienced a short-term bottoming and recovery process, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.80% and ending at 1.84%, reaching a high of 1.87% in early December [3][57] - The risk appetite for the bond market decreased significantly as the stock market entered a consolidation phase, leading to a balance of bullish and bearish forces in the bond market [3][57] - The uncertainty surrounding the delayed implementation of new fund sales regulations has become a reason for institutions to seek hedging [3][57] Group 2 - The seasonal downward trend in December may weaken this year, as past five years' data shows that long-term rates typically decline, driven by expectations of "loose monetary policy" and year-end performance needs [4][54] - The bond market in December 2025 may face challenges due to the central bank's hawkish stance, limited performance improvement from institutions, and ample supply in the primary market at the beginning of the next year [4][54][35] - The characteristics of year-end rate declines may weaken marginally, with the trend still needing to wait for adjustments and corrections [4][35] Group 3 - Attention should be paid to marginal changes in the fundamentals, as the market has formed new trading habits since 2025, where data that does not meet expectations may be selectively ignored [5][55] - Inflation changes could pose short-term risks to the bond market, with November CPI expected to rise to around 0.6% due to food prices and a low base effect [5][55][36] - The demand side showed signs of recovery in November, with state-owned and policy banks net buying only 55 million yuan in bills, significantly lower than the same period in 2023-2024 [5][55][39] Group 4 - The market may return to a high volatility state in mid to late December, where it is essential to avoid net value adjustments caused by fluctuating interest rates and seize potential profit opportunities from market volatility [6][41] - The current yield curve is relatively steep, suggesting ample room for flattening, and a barbell strategy may be a better response tool [6][41][56] - For defensive positions, stable valuation or high coupon yield options should be considered, while the 5-year government bonds offer good value after the institutional profit-taking in late November [6][56]

长城基金/供图 证券时报记者 李明珠 2025年港股市场表现亮眼，恒生指数与恒生科技指数领跑全球主要股票市场。日前，长城基金国际业务 部副总经理曲少杰在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，2026年港股市场有望走强，当前估值已进入"放心 区间"，需理性看待市场波动与上涨节奏。 曲少杰认为，美国步入降息周期，理论上有利于成长股，美联储降息这一单一宏观变量并非决定股价的 核心因素，投资仍需回归行业趋势与企业自身成长潜力，并持续看好科技创新驱动的结构性机会以及具 备高盈利壁垒和强大护城河的新消费领域优质企业。 三大趋势支撑2026年港股 曲少杰深耕海外市场，其投资风格稳健且灵活，所管产品中长期业绩表现突出。他认为，明年港股大概 率实现正收益，但投资者应理性看待涨幅，因其更多取决于上市公司业绩增速。今年市场走强主要缘于 估值修复，当前估值处于合理偏低水平，并未出现泡沫。 曲少杰对2026年港股持乐观态度，但他强调健康的上涨应源于企业盈利的切实提升，而非单纯依赖估值 扩张。他同时指出，"逆向思考"是其投资的关键，需警惕涨幅过大资产的风险，并关注超跌优质资产的 机会。 曲少杰指出，港股走强主要受益于三大趋势：首先，科技创新强周期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to perform well in 2026, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index leading global markets, as valuations have entered a "reassuring range" [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to achieve positive returns in 2026, driven by company earnings growth rather than mere valuation expansion [2][3] - Three major trends are supporting the strength of the Hong Kong stock market: 1. A strong cycle driven by technological innovation, particularly in AI and new consumption sectors [2][3] 2. Continued foreign capital inflow, recognizing the long-term value of Chinese core assets [3] 3. Southbound capital providing liquidity support, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus should be on high-quality assets with strong profit margins and solid competitive advantages, as these are crucial for long-term competitiveness [4][5] - The investment strategy emphasizes a "barbell strategy," balancing stable high-dividend assets with growth stocks to capture market opportunities [6][7] - Companies with strong AI capabilities and high dividend yields are highlighted as having the highest earnings certainty and providing stable returns [3][4]