Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the casting aluminum market is experiencing downward pressure due to geopolitical risks and seasonal demand decline, despite some support from raw material costs [1][2]. Group 2 - The main contract for casting aluminum closed at 22,585 yuan, down 505 yuan or 2.19%, with a trading volume of 19,770 lots, an increase of 211 lots, and an open interest of 21,008 lots, up 390 lots [1]. - The average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 25,600 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan, while other alloys like A380 and ZL102 also saw similar declines [1]. - The macroeconomic environment shows that geopolitical tensions, particularly actions by the Trump administration, have led to increased market risk aversion, contributing to the decline in aluminum prices [1]. Group 3 - On the supply side, both imported and domestic scrap aluminum supplies are tight, which limits the price decline of casting aluminum and provides cost support [2]. - Demand remains weak as the industry enters a seasonal consumption lull, with alloy plant operating rates declining and automotive sector demand decreasing [2]. - The overall market activity is subdued, with cautious buying from downstream enterprises and limited actual transactions, indicating a general lack of market dynamism [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to remain relatively strong as it broke through the previous oscillation range last week. In 2026, the rapid rise phase driven by liquidity and market risk preference may have ended, and the A - share "slow - bull" pattern is entering the second half. With macro - policy support, inflation warming, and capital market policy guidance, the stock index is expected to rise further in 2026 compared to 2025. Futures traders can use the futures discount structure to enhance the winning rate of long - position strategies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rates and Bond Markets - DR001 closed at 1.24 with a - 0.21bp change, DR007 at 1.69 with a 9.30bp change, GC001 at 2.04 with a 20.00bp change, and GC007 at 2.05 with a 2.50bp change. SHBOR 3M was at 1.60 with no change, and LPR 5 - year was at 3.50 with no change. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds were at 1.34, 1.61, and 1.86 respectively, with changes of 0.50bp, 1.25bp, and 0.20bp. The 10 - year US Treasury bond was at 4.12 with a - 2.00bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 4823 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 673 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net investment was 4150 billion yuan. This week (December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026), 6227 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [3][4]. Stock Indexes and Futures - The closing prices and changes of major stock indexes: the CSI 300 rose 0.26% to 4651, the SSE 50 rose 0.06% to 3037, the CSI 500 rose 0.38% to 7459, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.04% to 7597. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21426 billion yuan, a slight increase of 33 billion yuan. Industry sectors showed more declines than increases [5][6]. - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures: IF volume was 94429 with a - 1.8% change, and its position was 281129 with a 1.9% change; IH volume was 41166 with a 4.2% change, and its position was 88407 with a 1.3% change; IC volume was 117475 with a 4.2% change, and its position was 288847 with a 4.7% change; IM volume was 163327 with a 2.3% change, and its position was 372661 with a 3.0% change [5]. - The current, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts of IF had an average premium of 3.55%, 3.21%, 2.85%, and 3.36% respectively; IH had 0.81%, 0.73%, 0.17%, and 0.71% respectively; IC had 0.50%, 3.91%, 4.77%, and 7.38% respectively; IM had 0.99%, 7.14%, 8.29%, and 10.38% respectively [7].

Group 1: Report Core View - Last week, the gold price continued to rise, with New York gold breaking through $4,500 and Shanghai gold breaking through the 1,000-yuan mark. After the meetings of the US and Japanese central banks ended, market liquidity recovered, and the US dollar index remained weak, which was positive for the gold price. In the long run, although the gold price has broken through the late-October high, its overall performance is far inferior to other precious metals and copper, mainly due to the high short-term market risk appetite and the decline in the safe-haven demand for gold. Before the New Year's Day holiday, continuous attention should be paid to the long-short game at the $4,500 mark of New York gold, and beware of the risk of a high-level pullback before the holiday [5][21] Group 2: Market Review 2.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing prices [9] 2.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | December 26 | December 19 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,562.00 | $4,368.70 | 4.42% | | COMEX Silver | $79.68 | $67.40 | 18.22% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 1,016.30 yuan | 979.90 yuan | 3.71% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 18,319.00 yuan | 15,376.00 yuan | 19.14% | | US Dollar Index | 98.03 | 98.72 | -0.69% | | USD/CNH | 7.00 | 7.03 | -0.41% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.91 | 1.92 | -0.01 | | S&P 500 | 6,929.94 | 6,834.50 | 1.40% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $56.93 | $56.65 | 0.49% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 57.26 | 64.82 | -11.67% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 55.48 | 63.73 | -12.95% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,071.13 tons | 1,052.54 tons | 18.59 tons | | iShare Gold ETF | 492.64 tons | 491.82 tons | 0.82 tons | [10] Group 3: Liquidity Recovery after Japanese Yen Interest Rate Hike - After the Japanese yen interest rate hike, the market showed a "boot landing" situation, with a significant recovery in short-term liquidity. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling to the 98 mark, which was positive for the gold price [12] Group 4: Tracking of Other Indicators - Last week, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs were 1,563.77 tons, an increase of 19.41 tons from the previous week. After the Japanese yen interest rate hike, precious metals generally rose, with silver's increase significantly larger than that of gold, and the gold-silver ratio continued to weaken, dropping below 60 last week [16][18]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a historical high of $12,960 per ton before retreating, with a current increase of 3.27% to $12,560 per ton [1] - Shanghai copper futures for February rose by 0.76% to ¥98,860 per ton, after hitting a record high of ¥102,660 per ton last Friday [1] - Analysts indicate that profit-taking by investors and a decrease in market risk appetite are contributing to the current price adjustments [1] Group 2 - Shanghai copper saw an approximate 6% increase last week, while London copper prices rose by 1.93% [2] - The market is anticipating the release of the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes, which may influence future interest rate decisions [2] - Technical analysts predict LME copper may retreat to the range of $12,344 to $12,544 per ton this week, facing strong resistance around $12,869 per ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Index, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Carbonate Lithium, Silicon Iron, Glass, Cotton, Corn, PTA, Short Fiber, BR Rubber, LPG - **Bearish**: Palm Oil - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury Bonds, Copper, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, Container Shipping on the Europe Route 2. Core Views - The market sentiment and liquidity are in good condition, with the index breaking through the previous oscillation range and expected to remain strong [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - The macro - sentiment is positive, while the industrial fundamentals are mixed across different metals, leading to varying price trends [1]. - For agricultural products, supply and demand factors, policy expectations, and cost support play important roles in price movements [1]. - In the energy and chemical sectors, factors such as production plans, supply - demand balance, cost changes, and geopolitical events influence prices [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity and Bond Markets - **Index**: The index continued to rise yesterday, with increased trading volume. It is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Metals Market - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The industrial situation is weak, but the macro - sentiment is positive, so the copper price remains strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: There is inventory accumulation in domestic electrolytic aluminum, but the macro - sentiment drives the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: After an over - decline, it rebounded. Policy continuity should be noted [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted up. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to cut nickel ore production in 2026. The global nickel inventory is high, but the price has rebounded. It may be strong in the short term, with a long - term surplus [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material prices are stable, inventory is slightly reduced, and steel mills are reducing production. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The industry association issued an initiative to guide the price back to normal. Considering the Congo situation and market sentiment, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. - **Precious Metals**: - **Gold and Silver**: The market sentiment is high, silver is rising rapidly, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped to a low level since 2013. They are expected to be strong in the short term, but silver may have sharp fluctuations [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The overseas prices rose on Friday, which is expected to drive up domestic prices. However, the domestic futures prices have a large premium, so rational participation is advised [1]. Black Metal Market - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The basis and production profit are not high, and short - selling is not recommended. The long - short arbitrage positions can take profit on a rolling basis [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - term contracts have upward potential due to good market sentiment [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: The direct demand is weak, and the supply is high, so the prices are under pressure [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: After the negative news was released, the prices showed signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot market and downstream winter - storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products Market - **Palm Oil**: The high - frequency data has improved, but the supply in the producing areas is expected to be loose. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Although there has been a rebound, the subsequent supply is expected to be more abundant. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price, but there is no strong driving force. Future policies and demand should be monitored [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus, and the domestic supply is increasing. The cost provides support if the price drops [1]. - **Corn**: The downstream replenishment demand is expected to drive the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The near - term contracts are affected by customs policies, and the overall trend is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [1]. - **Pulp**: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The 01 contract is under pressure due to the approaching delivery month and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The demand is supported, and the production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemical Market - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuela affect the price [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but the long - term demand is likely to be over - estimated [1]. - **Other Chemical Products**: - **Industrial Silicon**: The production in the northwest is increasing, and that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is decreasing in December [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in the peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand. The supply is increasing, and the price is rising rapidly in the short term [1]. - **PTA and Short Fiber**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and the polyester production and sales are improving [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some production devices are expected to stop, and the price has rebounded due to supply - side news [1]. - **Styrene**: The price has rebounded due to supply contraction, but the downstream demand is weak [1]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price may decline [1]. - **LPG**: The market is in an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to price changes affected by natural gas [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost is rising, the price is increasing, and the market sentiment is strong [1]. Shipping Market - **Container Shipping on the Europe Route**: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the peak - season price increase was pre - priced, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose [1].

- The report discusses the performance of BARRA style factors, highlighting that fundamental factors showed increased differentiation, with growth being preferred over value. Profitability-related factors entered a retracement phase, while trading-related factors like high turnover and short-term momentum provided significant excess returns. Additionally, mid-cap style factors outperformed, with both size and non-linear size factors showing positive excess returns[24][25] - The report identifies that high turnover stocks achieved an excess return of 0.9%, short-term momentum stocks provided 0.7%, and non-linear size factors contributed 0.7% in excess returns. Meanwhile, profitability-related factors like earnings quality and investment quality showed negative returns of -0.1% and -0.3%, respectively[25]

Group 1: Market Overview - On the first trading day after the traditional holiday, U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.04%, S&P 500 down 0.03%, and Nasdaq down 0.09% due to declines in non-essential consumer goods and energy sectors [1] - The U.S. stock market had only three full trading days this week due to the holiday, but strong economic data boosted investor confidence in corporate earnings, leading to an overall increase in the three major indices: Dow Jones up 1.20%, S&P 500 up 1.40%, and Nasdaq up 1.22% [5] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices fell on the 26th, but still showed an overall increase for the week, with concerns about U.S.-Venezuela relations disrupting global oil supply countering worries about weak demand [8] - Investors are anticipating a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to a significant influx of Russian oil into an already oversupplied market, putting downward pressure on oil prices [7] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals prices surged on the 26th, with both gold and silver showing significant weekly increases, driven by expectations of continued loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and rising investor risk aversion [9] - Gold futures rose by nearly 3.8% and silver futures increased by over 14% for the week, reflecting a combination of a weakening dollar, increased ETF holdings, and strong industrial demand [10] - Platinum and palladium also saw substantial gains, with platinum up nearly 10% and palladium close to 12%, indicating supply shortages and liquidity effects from gold [10]

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold spot price on December 24 was quoted at 1012.00 CNY per gram, showing a discount of 2.68 CNY per gram compared to the futures main price of 1014.68 CNY per gram [1] - The futures market saw the Shanghai gold futures main contract close at 1014.68 CNY per gram on December 24, with an increase of 0.63%, reaching a high of 1022.88 CNY per gram and a low of 1000.50 CNY per gram, with a trading volume of 351,301 contracts [2] - The recent week saw a cumulative increase of 1,989 kg in Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts, representing a growth rate of 2.17%, while the monthly increase was 3,285 kg, or 3.63% [2] Group 2 - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to macroeconomic factors, particularly the monetary policies of the US and Japan, with the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike contributing to market dynamics [3] - Following the easing of tensions in US-China relations after the October meeting, gold prices have shown significant fluctuations, maintaining a high level of volatility [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually returning, and stock index futures are expected to oscillate and rebound. However, further breakthroughs require volume support, and market sentiment is expected to turn cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly moving in an oscillatory manner [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, so attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - With the improvement of market risk appetite, the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel in the non - ferrous metal sector are expected to be strong in the short term, while the long - term pattern of primary nickel surplus remains unchanged [1]. - Gold prices may remain strong in the short term, but the strong GDP growth in the third quarter of the United States weakens the expectation of interest rate cuts, so volatility risks need to be vigilant. Silver, platinum, and palladium are still favored by macro - driving, supply - demand imbalance, and other factors, but short - term volatility risks also exist [1]. - For the black sector, after the release of negative news, coal and coke have shown signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage and replenishment [1]. - In the agricultural product sector, the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and other products are under pressure, while the cotton market is currently in a state of "having support but no driving force", and future policies and market conditions need to be monitored [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of PTA are expected to be strong, while the prices of ethylene glycol, PVC, and other products are under pressure due to factors such as supply and demand and cost [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - Stock index futures: Oscillate and rebound in the short term, but further breakthroughs require volume support, and mainly move in an oscillatory manner by the end of the year [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank warns of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: With the improvement of market risk appetite, prices are strong [1]. - Aluminum: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, prices oscillate and strengthen [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals improve, cost center rises, and prices oscillate and strengthen [1]. - Nickel: Although global inventory is high, due to supply concerns and Indonesian policies, prices may be strong in the short term, with a long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel [1]. - Stainless steel: With the improvement of raw material nickel prices, futures prices continue to rebound, and short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - Tin: Affected by the industry's initiative, prices oscillate and weaken in the short term, but low - buying opportunities can be considered [1]. Precious metals and new energy - Gold: Prices reach a new high and may remain strong in the short term, but volatility risks need to be vigilant [1]. - Silver: Macro - driving, supply - demand imbalance, and other factors are beneficial, but short - term volatility risks exist [1]. - Platinum and palladium: May maintain a long - position pattern in the short term, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1]. Black sector - Steel products: After the release of negative news, coal and coke show signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to winter storage and replenishment [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, while far - month contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - Silicon iron: Direct demand weakens, supply is high, and prices are under pressure [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are supported, valuation is low, and prices fluctuate and strengthen [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with limited downward space and may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: High - frequency data improves, but the origin is expected to be loose, and rebound short - selling is recommended [1]. - Soybean oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, prices are weak [1]. - Cotton: The market is in a state of "having support but no driving force", and future policies and market conditions need to be monitored [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is cost support below, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Wheat and corn: Market supply and demand tension eases, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and there is备货 demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the futures price [1]. - Soybeans: US soybeans are weak, Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and domestic futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and chemical sector - Crude oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions, prices oscillate [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil, with short - term supply - demand contradictions not prominent [1]. - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, profit is high, and prices oscillate [1]. - Natural rubber: Supported by raw material costs, with a possible trend of inventory accumulation [1]. - PTA: PX prices are strong, polyester production and sales improve, and prices are expected to be strong [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Prices fall due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1]. - Styrene: Cost is slightly supported, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment eases, domestic demand is insufficient, but there is cost support [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases, demand weakens, and prices oscillate in a range [1]. - Caustic soda: Some production delays, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in Shandong [1]. - Liquefied petroleum gas (PG): After a price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1]. Other - Container shipping on the European route: The price increase in December fails to meet expectations, the peak - season price increase is pre - priced, and the supply of shipping capacity is relatively loose [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Foreign exchange futures (US Dollar Index)**: Bearish, suggesting the US Dollar Index will weaken [13] - **US stock index futures**: Expected to trend strongly with oscillations [15] - **Stock index futures**: Long - position allocation of various stock indices in a balanced manner [18] - **Treasury bond futures**: Long - term varieties are bottoming out. Allocation investors can buy when interest rates rise, and trading investors can buy on dips and exit quickly [22] - **Black metals (rebar/hot - rolled coil)**: Adopt an oscillatory mindset towards steel prices [25] - **Agricultural products (soybean meal)**: Expected to remain weak. In the absence of major South American weather anomalies, consider shorting on rallies for the May contract [26] - **Black metals (coking coal/coke)**: In the short term, coking coal lacks upward momentum. Pay attention to downstream restocking [29] - **Non - ferrous metals (lead)**: In a single - sided trade, focus on opportunities to stop losses on short positions; in arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [33] - **Non - ferrous metals (zinc)**: In a single - sided trade, look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks; in a calendar spread, maintain long positions in positive spreads; in an international spread, consider reverse arbitrage [37] - **Non - ferrous metals (polysilicon)**: Spot prices are expected to be resistant to decline. New prices' success depends on downstream price transmission. Due to large price fluctuations and risk - control measures, investors are advised to hold positions with caution [42] - **Non - ferrous metals (industrial silicon)**: Current production cuts are insufficient to reverse the inventory build - up. Consider shorting on rallies [45] - **Non - ferrous metals (lithium carbonate)**: In the short term, strong inventory reduction and postponed production resumption support bullish sentiment. However, after production resumes and demand weakens in the off - season, prices may correct. In the long - term, consider buying on dips [47] - **Non - ferrous metals (copper)**: In a single - sided trade, expect high - level oscillations; in arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [51] - **Non - ferrous metals (nickel)**: If cobalt pricing is implemented, consider mid - term long positions on dips. If RKAB is set at 250 million wet tons, nickel prices will rise significantly. But if both expectations are unmet, consider shorting on rallies [56] - **Energy and chemicals (crude oil)**: Short - term risk premiums support oil prices, with increased volatility [60] - **Energy and chemicals (asphalt)**: Short - term prices are expected to be stable at the bottom [62] - **Energy and chemicals (PTA)**: The short - term market remains strong. Hold long positions and monitor downstream negative feedback [65] - **Energy and chemicals (urea)**: For the 01 contract, expect oscillations. For the 05 contract, after a certain margin of safety is provided, consider low - buying to bet on spring - farming restocking and new export quota policies [67] - **Energy and chemicals (styrene)**: Temporarily maintain an oscillatory pattern. In the medium - term, look for low - buying opportunities [70] - **Energy and chemicals (caustic soda)**: Supply - demand contradictions have eased. A decline in liquid chlorine prices may support caustic soda prices [72] - **Energy and chemicals (PVC)**: In the short term, expect low - level oscillations. In 2026, new production capacity is limited, and exports are expected to improve. If low - valuation persists before and during spring maintenance, there may be an upward trend [74] 2. Core Views - Trump is expected to nominate a new Fed Chairman in early January, boosting market risk appetite and causing the US Dollar Index to decline [12] - The Fed's internal differences over interest rate cuts are significant, and the market may re - price the long - term interest rate cut path. Short - term risk appetite has improved [14] - After the Bank of Japan's less - than - expected interest rate hike, A - shares have increased in volume, and the market is in an offensive state [17] - With the unchanged policy interest rate and rising risk appetite, Treasury bond futures have declined, but long - term varieties are bottoming out [20] - Steel prices are oscillating strongly, with short - term supply - demand contradictions not prominent, and the market is starting to bet on winter stockpiling [24] - The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory has increased again. The market lacks bullish factors [26] - Coking coal and coke are in a state of weak supply and demand. Pay attention to downstream restocking and future supply - demand changes [28] - The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices are likely to oscillate [33] - The zinc market's short - term fundamentals have few contradictions, and prices are likely to rise in the medium - term [37] - The polysilicon market has a problem of inventory build - up and weak demand. New prices' success depends on downstream price transmission [40] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon depend on production cuts. Current production cuts may not reverse inventory build - up [44] - The lithium carbonate market has short - term bullish sentiment, but prices may correct after production resumes. In the long - term, consider buying on dips [46] - Geopolitical risks support the copper price, but short - term fundamentals are weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [50] - The nickel market has uncertainties in RKAB and cobalt pricing. Consider mid - term long positions on dips under certain conditions [56] - Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium of crude oil, but floating crude oil is a bearish factor [59] - The asphalt market has seen inventory build - up, and short - term prices are expected to be stable at the bottom [61] - The PTA market is rising due to expectations of inventory reduction, but there are differences between the industrial and financial sectors, and attention should be paid to downstream negative feedback [64] - The urea market's 01 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 05 contract should focus on spring - farming restocking and new export quota policies [67] - The styrene market is in an oscillatory pattern, and the key lies in the pure benzene segment. Look for low - buying opportunities in the medium - term [70] - The caustic soda market's supply - demand contradictions have eased, and a decline in liquid chlorine prices may support the price [72] - The PVC market is in the bottom range, with short - term supply - demand contradictions difficult to resolve. In 2026, supply - demand may improve [74] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump will soon nominate a new Fed Chairman, which will increase market risk appetite and lead to a decline in the US Dollar Index [12] - Trump will launch a "ground" crackdown on drug - trafficking, and US officials have held constructive talks with Ukraine and European representatives [11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed official Milan believes that not cutting interest rates in 2026 will lead to a recession risk. The Fed has internal differences on interest rate cuts, and the market may re - price the long - term interest rate cut path [14] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council is planning major projects. In December, LPR remained unchanged. A - shares increased in volume on December 22, and the market is in an offensive state [16][17] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In December, LPR remained unchanged, and the central bank conducted 67.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan. Treasury bond futures declined, but long - term varieties are bottoming out [19][20] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Magang's new galvanizing line project was successfully commissioned. 242 steel enterprises have completed the ultra - low emission transformation. Steel prices are oscillating strongly, and short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent [23][24] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills decreased, while the inventory of soybean meal increased. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the market lacks bullish factors, and soybean meal is expected to remain weak [26] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Coking coal prices in Changzhi are fluctuating. Coking coal and coke are in a state of weak supply and demand. Pay attention to downstream restocking and future supply - demand changes [27][28] 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The government has cracked down on illegal mining. In November 2025, China's lead - acid battery exports decreased. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will waive multiple trading fees in 2026. The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices are likely to oscillate [30][31][33] 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will waive multiple trading fees in 2026. In November 2025, zinc concentrate imports increased, and galvanized sheet exports decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals of zinc have few contradictions, and prices are likely to rise in the medium - term [34][35][37] 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the designated delivery warehouses and quality inspection institutions for polysilicon futures. The polysilicon market has a problem of inventory build - up and weak demand. New prices' success depends on downstream price transmission [38][40] 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In November 2025, China exported 54,888.405 tons of industrial silicon. The supply and demand of industrial silicon depend on production cuts. Current production cuts may not reverse inventory build - up [44] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In November 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports reached a record high. The lithium carbonate market has short - term bullish sentiment, but prices may correct after production resumes. In the long - term, consider buying on dips [46] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - BHP will focus on Canadian copper mining. In November 2025, China's copper ore concentrate imports increased, and refined copper imports decreased. Geopolitical risks support the copper price, but short - term fundamentals are weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [48][49][50] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Vale Indonesia says the reduction in RKAB will not affect next year's production. The nickel market has uncertainties in RKAB and cobalt pricing. Consider mid - term long positions on dips under certain conditions [52][56] 3.2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The arrival volume of crude oil in Shandong exceeded 2.6 million tons. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium of crude oil, but floating crude oil is a bearish factor [57][59] 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery and social inventories have increased. Short - term prices are expected to be stable at the bottom [61] 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - On December 22, the PX price rose. The PTA market is rising due to expectations of inventory reduction, but there are differences between the industrial and financial sectors, and attention should be paid to downstream negative feedback [63][64] 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The weekly operating rate of compound fertilizers decreased. The 01 contract of urea is expected to oscillate, and the 05 contract should focus on spring - farming restocking and new export quota policies [66][67] 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports increased. The styrene market is in an oscillatory pattern, and the key lies in the pure benzene segment. Look for low - buying opportunities in the medium - term [68][70] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong is stable. The supply - demand contradictions have eased, and a decline in liquid chlorine prices may support the price [71][72] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market has declined. The PVC market is in the bottom range, with short - term supply - demand contradictions difficult to resolve. In 2026, supply - demand may improve [73][74]