Group 1 - The A-share index has been on the rise since April 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3605.73 points on July 24, 2023 [1] - Major broad-based indices have shown significant increases, with the North China 50 Index rising by 39.86% and other indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 also experiencing notable gains [1] Group 2 - Huaxia Fund indicates that structural risks are accumulating but no clear turning point has been observed; the market is currently in a main upward trend with strong risk appetite and capital support [2] - Recent meetings have released positive signals for expanding domestic demand and "anti-involution" policies, boosting market sentiment; upcoming policy changes may act as new catalysts for market performance [2] - Long-term views suggest that the trend of asset revaluation in China remains unchanged, supported by global capital rebalancing and accelerated industrial upgrades [2] - Great Wall Fund maintains a cautiously optimistic short-term outlook, suggesting that while the market may still be in an upward trend, defensive positioning is necessary to avoid excessive chasing of highs [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-25 避险情绪再降温，⾦价回调 ⾦价再回调，要受美元反弹和美债收益率回升的影响。 重点资讯： 1）欧建交50周年之际，中国领导人周四会见欧盟领导人时 指出，中欧关系又站在一个关键历史节点。中欧之间没有根 本利害冲突和地缘政治矛盾，合作大于竞争、共识多于分歧 的基本面和主基调没有变。 2）欧盟委员会周四表示，与美国达成协商贸易解决方案已 近在眼前。与此同时，欧盟成员国投票批准了对价值930亿 欧元（1090亿美元）美国商品的反制关税措施，以防谈判破 裂。 3）欧洲央行周四维持利率不变，此前该行在一年内已连续 降息八次。目前欧盟正与华盛顿就贸易协定展开谈判，可能 缓解持续存在的关税不确定性，欧洲央行因此选择暂时按兵 不动。 4）美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值 49.5，预期52.7，前值 52.9；美国标普全球服务业PMI初值 55.2，预期53，前值5 2.9。 宏观研究团队 研究员： 5）美国至7月19日当周初请失业金人数 21.7万人，预期22. 6万人，前值22.1万人。 6）美国6月新屋销售总数年化 62.7万 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 短线看弱 | 美对外关税协议逐步达成，市场 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | 风险偏好回升 | | 铜 | 2509 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 短线看强 | 市场消化美关税冲击后，内外宏 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 观经济回暖推升铜价 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 美对外关税协议逐步达成，市场 风险偏好回升 | | 铜 | 2509 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 市场消化美关税冲击后，内外宏 观经济回暖推升铜价 | 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 说明： 参考观点：短线看弱 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 核心逻辑：本周以来，金价上行突破 7 月震荡高位，纽约金逼近 3450 美元关口，即二季以来的高 位，二季度金价在该位置屡次冲高回落，有较强的技术压力。北京时间昨夜 12 时，金价跳水明显。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest news indicates that the US and the EU are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index [2][13]. - The market risk preference remains high, with US stock index futures continuing to rise, and gold and US Treasuries experiencing corrections. However, due to the weak performance of the US real - estate market and uncertainties in US - EU negotiations, there is a need to be cautious about callback risks [18]. - The bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based performance in the near term. Long - position holders are advised to sell on rebounds, and cash bond positions can consider hedging strategies [3]. - For agricultural products, the situation varies. For example, the demand for soybean meal is good, and it is advisable to buy on dips; the palm oil market is affected by supply - side factors in Indonesia; the corn starch industry may face continued losses; and for corn, old - crop prices are expected to remain stable until new - crop harvest [24][26][31][34]. - In the black metal sector, the price of thermal coal is expected to rebound in the short term; iron ore prices are overvalued and show differentiation; and coking coal prices are affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with a need to be cautious after a sharp increase [28][29][36]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, the price of lithium carbonate is affected by supply - side disturbances; the fundamentals of lead are improving; copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the short term; zinc prices are expected to continue the upward trend in the short term; and nickel prices may follow the overall non - ferrous metal trend in the short term but face supply - side pressure in the medium term [38][39][45][48][52]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term; PX prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term; PTA prices may follow the overall domestic commodity trend; and the situations of other products such as caustic soda, pulp, PVC, bottle chips, soda ash, and float glass also have their own characteristics and corresponding investment suggestions [53][55][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Russia and Ukraine will hold a new round of negotiations. The Russian delegation led by Vladimir Medinsky went to Turkey to meet the Ukrainian delegation led by Rustem Umerov. The meeting is expected to start in the evening [11]. - Trump said that the US and the EU reached an agreement on military aid to Ukraine, where the EU will pay for all military equipment and distribute it, with most going to Ukraine [12]. - The US and the EU are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement, which will reduce the possibility of trade conflicts between them, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index. It is recommended that the US dollar index will weaken in the short term [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US existing - home sales dropped to a nine - month low in June, with the annualized total of existing - home sales decreasing by 2.7% month - on - month to 393,000 units, lower than the expected 400,000 units, and the supply of existing - home sales can last for 4.7 months, the highest since July 2016 [15]. - Google's second - quarter earnings exceeded expectations, and it increased its annual capital expenditure to $85 billion from the previously expected $75 billion [16]. - The US and the EU are close to reaching a trade agreement, and the negotiation is positive. The market risk preference remains high, but due to the weak real - estate market and uncertainties in the negotiation, there is a need to be cautious about callback risks [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 23, with a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan due to the maturity of 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases. The bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based performance in the near term. Long - position holders are advised to sell on rebounds, and cash bond positions can consider hedging strategies. Short - term trading long - position holders can close their positions after the Politburo meeting [20][21]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. Analysts expect the net increase in US soybean export sales for the week ending July 17 to be between 350,000 and 850,000 tons. - Argentina crushed 4.055 million tons of soybeans in June, producing 788,000 tons of soybean oil and 3.021 million tons of soybean meal. The demand for soybean meal is good, and it is advisable to buy on dips and not chase high prices [22][23][24]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% month - on - month. GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased to 2.96 million tons in May. The palm oil market is affected by supply - side factors in Indonesia, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the transfer of plantation operating rights on the production - increasing season [25][26]. 2.3 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - Zheng Shanjie emphasized promoting the improvement of involution - style competition and expanding industrial chain and supply - chain cooperation. The port spot coal price is rising moderately, and it is expected to continue the rebound trend in the short term due to the high market sentiment and rigid demand [27][28]. 2.4 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Vale's second - quarter production and sales report shows stable performance. The price of iron ore is overvalued, and it is recommended to wait and see due to the possible compression of price space by the increase in coal prices and weak terminal demand [29]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased, and inventory has been reduced. However, the industry may face continued losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low and volatile [30][31]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern port decreased, while that in the southern port increased. The price of old - crop corn is expected to remain stable until new - crop harvest, and early - entered short positions of new - crop corn can be held, with attention to rebound - adding opportunities [33][34]. 2.7 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply of coking coal is recovering slower than expected, and demand is strong. After a sharp increase, it is necessary to be cautious about risks [35][36]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe's lithium spodumene exports increased by 30% in the first half of 2025. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fee standard for lithium carbonate futures contracts. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by supply - side disturbances, and it is recommended to reduce positions or wait and see [37][38]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - On July 22, the [LME0 - 3 Lead] was at a discount of $25.4 per ton. The fundamentals of lead are improving, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips in the short term [39]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metal (Copper) - Glencore plans to suspend copper smelting in northern Queensland; Askari found high - grade copper mineralization in Ethiopia; MMG's copper production in the second quarter increased by 54% year - on - year; the global copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons in May. Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - On July 22, the [LME0 - 3 Zinc] was at a discount of $4.23 per ton. MMG's zinc mine production in the second quarter increased by 12% year - on - year. Zinc prices are expected to continue the upward trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for the overall situation and consider near - month spread arbitrage [46][47][48][49]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - Vale's nickel production in the second quarter reached a new high since 2021. The price of nickel may follow the overall non - ferrous metal trend in the short term but face supply - side pressure in the medium term [50][52]. 2.13 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, waiting for new driving factors [53][54]. 2.14 Energy and Chemical (PX) - On July 23, the PX price was slightly weaker. The cost support is insufficient, but the bottom is supported. The PX price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [55][56]. 2.15 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased significantly in the afternoon of the previous day. PTA prices may follow the overall domestic commodity trend in the short term [57][58]. 2.16 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - On July 23, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong fluctuated. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable. The upward space of caustic soda prices is limited after the basis of the 09 contract is completed [59][60]. 2.17 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is rising, but high - price transactions are difficult. The pulp price is rising due to policy and coal price factors, but the upward space is limited due to the unchanged supply - demand situation [61][62]. 2.18 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market is consolidating. The PVC price is rising with the overall commodity market, but the inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [63]. 2.19 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable with partial slight increases. The industry is implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying on dips [64][65][66]. 2.20 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash from Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical is stable. The soda ash futures price decreased slightly, and the market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to operate cautiously and wait for policy guidance [67]. 2.21 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - The price of 5mm float glass in Hubei increased by 1.5 on July 23. The glass futures price increase narrowed. It is recommended to operate cautiously on a single - side basis and focus on arbitrage strategies such as buying glass and shorting soda ash [68].

2025年07月23日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日收盘价 | TS2509 102.408 | TS2512 102.486 | TF2509 105.885 | TF2512 105.970 | T2509 108.635 | T2512 108.695 | TL2509 119.45 | TL2512 119.25 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.420 | 102.488 | 105.955 | 106.025 | 108.760 | 108.800 | 119.97 | 119.76 | | | 涨跌 | -0.012 | -0.002 | -0.070 | -0.055 | -0.125 | -0.105 | -0.520 | -0.510 | | | 涨跌幅 | ...

甘霖终降:甚建发力提振市场风险偏好 ■ 战术性资产配置周度点评(20250720) 本报告导读: 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们建议战术性超配港股,战术性标配 人民币,战术性低配商品、日股、美债。 投资要点: 近期大类资产定价主要受市场风险偏好改善主导,风险资产显著优 o 于避险资产,权益>商品>债券。市场担忧鲍威尔被解聘或破坏投 资者对美联储货币政策指引的信心,雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程极大 提振了投资者的风险偏好,而日本执政联盟失去参院多数议席或削 弱政策可预测性。我们仍维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。权 益资产中,我们对分子端景气预期持续上修、市场流动性与风险偏 好逐渐改善的港股相对乐观,对基本面预期震荡下修、通胀压力较 大以及政策可预测性削弱的目股相对谨慎。债券资产中,我们对受 到财政压力以及较强经济内生性动力压制的美债相对谨慎。大宗商 品中,我们认为商品价格或仍受到供给与需求端的双向压制。全球 外汇中,我们认为中国经济运行趋势稳中向好、相较于其他主要经 济体增长动能韧性较强有望支撑人民币汇率中枢稳定。 | ને | 王子翌(分析师) | | --- | --- | | પ | 021-38 ...

Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated today, with the main contract at 1025 cents. Due to good weather and a slightly bearish USDA report in July, CBOT soybeans declined weakly at the beginning of last week and tested the previous low of 1000 cents again technically. Subsequently, positive news emerged. The US reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes Indonesia's purchase of $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, stimulating the expectation of new - season US soybean exports. However, CBOT soybeans are still expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. The new - season US soybeans are growing well, with an unexpectedly high excellent - good rate of 70% in the latest week, 4% higher than the previous week and at a very high level in the past five years. Only 7% of the US soybean planting areas are affected by drought, and the soil moisture has some leeway. The expectation of a bumper harvest is gradually strengthening. If China, the largest importer of US soybeans, still cannot purchase due to high tariffs, CBOT soybeans are expected to have no sustained improvement. [6] - Domestic soybean meal continued to be strong this week. Firstly, the risk preference in the commodity market has recovered, and the prices of most industrial products at the bottom have continued to rise, driving the bullish sentiment in the whole market. Secondly, the fundamental situation of soybean meal itself is solid. Although the current spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, considering that China has not started to book ships for new - season US soybeans in the fourth quarter, the current pressure is insignificant. The price of CBOT soybeans has recovered this week, the FOB price of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the import cost has gradually risen. The far - month soybean meal should be treated with a low - buying strategy. The risk lies in whether the future Sino - US peace talks will bring good news, such as a mutual reduction of tariffs without an agreement for China to purchase additional US agricultural products. [6] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3070, the opening price was 3080, the highest price was 3091, the lowest price was 3068, the closing price was 3087, with a rise of 17 and a rise rate of 0.55%. The trading volume was 292,691, the open interest was 1,155,465, and the open interest change was 8,587. For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3043, the opening price was 3060, the highest price was 3070, the lowest price was 3046, the closing price was 3069, with a rise of 26 and a rise rate of 0.85%. The trading volume was 972,455, the open interest was 1,885,694, and the open interest change was - 21,481. For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3083, the opening price was 3098, the highest price was 3108, the lowest price was 3083, the closing price was 3105, with a rise of 22 and a rise rate of 0.71%. The trading volume was 150,810, the open interest was 632,481, and the open interest change was - 9,420. [6] - **External Market Situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, and CBOT soybeans were affected by weather, USDA report, trade agreements, and China's purchasing situation. [6] - **Domestic Market Situation**: Domestic soybean meal was strong due to market sentiment and its own fundamentals. The far - month soybean meal should be treated with a low - buying strategy, with risks related to Sino - US relations. [6] 2. Industry News - **CFTC Position Report**: As of the week ending July 15, for CBOT soybeans, the long positions increased by 4,268 lots to 186,780 lots, and the short positions increased by 27,042 lots to 171,486 lots; for CBOT soybean oil, the long positions increased by 5,345 lots to 135,739 lots, and the short positions increased by 382 lots to 71,614 lots; for CBOT soybean meal, the long positions increased by 13,201 lots to 128,060 lots, and the short positions increased by 7,342 lots to 207,802 lots; for ICE rapeseed, the long positions decreased by 15,049 lots to 133,601 lots, and the short positions increased by 3,344 lots to 33,399 lots. [7] - **Rapeseed Growth Data**: As of the week ending July 16, the excellent - good rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada was 60.65%. As of the week ending July 15, the excellent - good rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 64.4%, up from 63.7% the previous week. In Manitoba, due to a long sowing window, rapeseed was at different growth stages, and the fungicide spraying work was still in progress. [9] 3. Data Overview - Data includes various charts such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures. [15][17][14]

Group 1 - The global financial market is set to experience significant events this week, including earnings reports from major companies, key housing data releases, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which may disrupt the current market calm and create new volatility opportunities for forex traders [1] - U.S. stock futures showed slight declines, with the Dow Jones futures down by 16 points, and S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also slightly lower, indicating a cautious investor sentiment [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has slightly decreased to 4.42%, while the dollar remains stable against major currencies, reflecting market reactions to Japan's recent upper house election results [1][5] Group 2 - If Asian market interest rates continue to rise, it may attract some capital back, potentially weakening demand for dollar-denominated assets, which could impact the medium-term outlook for the dollar index [6] - In the commodities market, gold prices have dropped to $3,353.60 per ounce, while U.S. and Brent crude oil prices have slightly increased to $67.48 and $69.41 per barrel, respectively, indicating mixed sentiments regarding economic prospects [6] - The upcoming earnings season will feature major tech companies, including Tesla and Alphabet, with expectations that better-than-expected results could boost market risk appetite and influence currency pair movements [6] - Key U.S. housing data will be released midweek, which may affect market perceptions of U.S. economic growth amid signs of a cooling real estate market [6] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and another official will speak on Tuesday, and the market will look for clues regarding the future interest rate path, which could inform trading strategies based on potential dollar movements [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of London gold is $3349.42 per ounce, showing a year-on-year increase of $10.43, which is a 0.31% rise [1] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to geopolitical tensions, increased economic uncertainty, and central bank purchases supporting gold prices [1] - Conversely, the volatility of the US dollar index and changes in market risk appetite are also favorable for gold prices [1] Group 2: Indonesia-US Trade Agreement - Indonesia is in the process of negotiating the details of a new trade agreement with the United States, following a reduction in the tariff rate from 32% to 19% [2] - Indonesia is seeking exemptions for its exports of palm oil and nickel, along with other products such as cocoa, rubber, and coffee [2] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated the possibility of reaching a "good agreement" with Indonesia [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are showing a narrowing opening, with gold prices operating above the middle band, indicating a rebound from oversold conditions [3] - The MACD indicator is showing signs of a potential bullish crossover, while the RSI is rebounding from oversold levels, suggesting strong bullish momentum [3] - On the hourly chart, gold prices are supported by the lower Bollinger Band and are experiencing a significant rebound, with key support at $3310 and resistance at $3380 [3]