Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: November 24, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The commodity market was under pressure last week, with an overall decline of 1.81%. All sectors closed lower, led by precious metals with a 4.07% drop. The Fed's wavering stance on interest rate cuts may lead to short - term volatility in the commodity market [2]. - The Fed's hawkish remarks tightened dollar liquidity, causing risk assets to fall. However, the weakening yen and a "dovish" speech by New York Fed President Williams on Friday improved market sentiment, though its sustainability is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market declined 1.81% last week. All sectors fell, with precious metals down 4.07%, energy and chemicals down 2.36%, agriculture down 1.55%, non - ferrous metals down 1.52%, and black metals down 0.25% [2][6]. - **Top - performing and Under - performing Varieties**: Iron ore, corn, and hot - rolled coils led the gainers with increases of 1.68%, 0.46%, and 0.43% respectively. Coking coal, silver, and pulp were the top losers, dropping 7.47%, 5.62%, and 4.6% respectively [2][6]. - **Volatility and Capital Flow**: The decline in the 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market narrowed, and the volatility of the precious metals sector further decreased. The overall market capital scale dropped significantly, with net outflows in all sectors, mainly concentrated in non - ferrous and precious metal varieties [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data showed resilience, and Fed officials had different views. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high, and the sector may remain volatile at high levels in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The release of lagging US economic data cooled the expectation of interest rate cuts, pushing up the dollar index and pressuring the sector. However, China's electricity consumption growth in October indicated economic resilience. The supply - demand structure is still loose, and the sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased, and inventory decreased. Iron - making still showed a seasonal decline, and steel mills continued to operate at a loss. The probability of further blast - furnace production cuts is high. The inventory of iron ore ports continued to accumulate, and the supply of coking coal tightened marginally. The sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The US is promoting the Russia - Ukraine agreement, suppressing the geopolitical risk premium. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and oil prices may weaken in the short term [3]. - **Chemicals**: Positive news such as potential disruptions to PX imports, planned shutdowns of Korean toluene disproportionation plants, and PX flowing to the US initially boosted the market. However, the decline in oil prices and gasoline crack spreads and the drop in terminal weaving loads led to a weakening demand expectation, and the industry chain may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Agriculture**: The La Nina phenomenon is ongoing and is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter. Attention should be paid to its impact on soybean production in Brazil and Argentina. Soybean meal may continue to adjust following US soybeans, and the oil and oil - seed sector may weaken in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns. The total scale of gold ETFs was 223.739 billion yuan, with a 2.87% increase in share. The total trading volume was 1.297571899 billion, with an 8.02% decrease [35]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF, soybean - meal ETF, non - ferrous metal ETF, and silver fund also had different degrees of decline in weekly returns. The total scale of all commodity ETFs was 234.997 billion yuan, with a 2.67% increase in share, and the total trading volume was 2.005203321 billion, with a 1.41% increase [35].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has diminished, leading to a global adjustment in stock markets, with concerns about potential bubbles in the artificial intelligence sector affecting market risk appetite [1]. Market Performance - Following the Federal Reserve's October meeting, the anticipation of a December rate cut has decreased, causing disturbances in global liquidity expectations and resulting in a weak performance in overseas stock markets [1]. - The A-share market, which had already been digesting gains from the second half of the year, has also been impacted by overseas market trends, leading to a decline in short-term holding confidence and an increase in profit-taking sentiment [1]. - Last week, the market experienced consecutive adjustments with reduced trading volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 60-day moving average and left a significant downward gap [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index also saw substantial adjustments, losing the 60-day moving average and widening its decline [1]. Trading Volume and Market Trends - The average daily trading volume for both markets last week was approximately 1.8 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [1]. - Market hotspots were primarily concentrated in defensive sectors, while small-cap and technology stocks led the decline [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index faced technical resistance, leading to a downward adjustment and returning to the consolidation range observed in August and September [1]. - The index encountered technical resistance at the end of the previous week, resulting in a sudden downward adjustment that continued into the following week, breaking through multiple short- and medium-term moving averages [1]. - Currently, the index has returned to the horizontal consolidation range from August and September, and it is advised to closely monitor the effectiveness of the previous support levels [1].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant decline, with the Wande All A index dropping by 3.17% and the Wande All A Equal Weight Index falling by 3.74% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.45% at 3834.89 points, breaching the 3900-point level [1] - The market's performance indicates a bearish trend, as the Wande All A index fell below the lower Bollinger Band [1][5] Global Market Influence - The decline in A-shares is part of a global market trend, initiated by a sharp drop in U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq 100, which fell over 2% after opening more than 2% higher [2] - Nvidia's earnings report, which exceeded analyst expectations, led to a 3.15% drop in its stock, indicating that the market is trading on "whisper numbers" rather than consensus estimates [4][6] - The U.S. labor market report showed a surprising increase in non-farm payrolls but also a rise in the unemployment rate, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [6] Sector Performance - The "consumption downgrade" narrative is emerging in the U.S., with Walmart's stock rising by 6.46% due to strong earnings, while Target's stock fell by 2.79% due to disappointing results [7] - In the A-share market, micro-cap stocks led the decline, with the Wande Micro-cap Index dropping by 4.87%, reflecting a retreat in risk appetite [11] - Traditional defensive sectors, such as banks and insurance, showed some resilience, but overall market sentiment remains weak [31][34] Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 index is approaching its 100-day moving average, which has historically served as a support level [8] - A significant number of sectors, including steel and chemicals, experienced declines of around 4%, indicating a broad-based sell-off [19] - The market's risk appetite has diminished significantly, as evidenced by the sharp declines in traditionally lower-risk sectors [19] Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest a cautious approach, with recommendations to reduce positions in light of the current market conditions [20][22] - The sentiment among different models varies, with some suggesting a reduction in exposure to 20% while others maintain a more optimistic stance [21][22] - The overall market outlook remains uncertain, heavily influenced by external factors such as U.S. market stability and economic indicators [31][34]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping over 7% and other major cryptocurrencies following suit, indicating a broader market sell-off and loss of investor confidence [1][5]. Market Performance - As of November 21, Bitcoin is priced at $86,097.4, marking a 7.09% decline in the last 24 hours. Other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Solana have also seen declines of 7.81% and 8.37% respectively [2][3]. - The total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market over the past 24 hours exceeded $900 million (approximately 6.79 billion RMB), affecting over 252,000 traders [3][4]. Factors Influencing the Market - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic liquidity tightening, decreased market risk appetite, and cyclical factors within the cryptocurrency industry [5]. - Despite a peak in October, the lack of sustained capital inflow and high leverage positions have contributed to the current sell-off, compounded by external liquidity constraints [5][6]. Institutional Involvement - Institutional investors have been a key support for Bitcoin's price throughout the year, but there are signs of capital outflow from these institutions recently [6]. - The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive due to trends in global asset diversification, increasing long-term capital, and heightened institutional participation, which may support future price increases [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the gold market, highlighting the impact of recent U.S. employment data and market sentiment on gold prices, while emphasizing the importance of profit in investment analysis [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold is currently trading in a range-bound pattern, with prices around $4076 per ounce, influenced by strong U.S. employment data and a rising dollar index [1] - The U.S. September non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, indicating resilience in the job market [1] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, but a broader measure of unemployment decreased to 8%, reflecting a complex labor market [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold's recent price action has been characterized by volatility, with key resistance at $4110 and support around $4030-4000 [2][4] - The article suggests a bearish outlook for gold, recommending short positions if prices fail to break above $4110 [2][4] - The trading strategy includes selling on rebounds near $4100-4105 and buying on dips around $4030-4035, with strict stop-loss measures advised [5]

Report Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for different asset classes are as follows: - Index: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term shock, cautious long [2] - Commodity sectors: - Black metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Non - ferrous metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Core Views - The global market is affected by the Fed's monetary policy expectations, domestic economic growth, and policy stimulus. The short - term upward drive of the macro - economy has weakened, and different asset classes show short - term shock characteristics. Attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2][3] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Overseas, the Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, and many thought it was not suitable to cut interest rates in December. The market expected no rate cut this year, leading to a rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's October economic data slowed down year - on - year and fell short of expectations, and the central bank restarted Treasury bond trading to release liquidity. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and the index will be in short - term shock [2] - Index: Driven by sectors such as precious metals, it rose slightly. Affected by economic data and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term upward drive has weakened, and it will be in short - term shock. Short - term cautious wait - and - see [3] - Precious metals: The market rose slightly at night on Wednesday. Affected by the Fed's possible inaction in December and the strong US dollar, short - term shock, long - term upward pattern remains. Short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures markets declined on Wednesday. Demand continued to weaken, inventory decreased, and production decreased. There are no new contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range [4][6] - Iron ore: The spot price fell slightly on Wednesday, and the futures price remained strong. The bottom of iron - making water production is uncertain, supply has changed slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [6] - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: The spot price was flat on Wednesday, and the futures price was affected by coal. Demand is still poor, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a range [7] - Soda ash: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply decreased marginally but remained loose, and demand improved marginally. Short - term range shock, long - term bearish [8] - Glass: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply was stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was at a high level. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rebounded slightly. Supply concerns still exist, but US and domestic inventories are high, and there is a risk of price decline [10] - Aluminum: On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded. Technically, there may be room for further rebound, but inventory is at a three - year high, and there may be a large correction later [10] - Tin: Supply is tight, demand is weak, inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11] - Lithium carbonate: The main contract rose on Wednesday. The price of lithium ore increased, and the trading volume increased. Hold long positions cautiously [12] - Industrial silicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. The organic silicon industry plans to reduce emissions and support prices. Pay attention to the continuation of funds and buy on dips [12] - Polysilicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: EIA data showed an increase in US refined oil inventories, and the hope of restarting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine led to a decline in oil prices. It is expected to remain under pressure [15] - Asphalt: The price remained low. Inventory was decreasing slightly, but demand was weak, and the over - supply pressure was high. Pay attention to the fluctuation of crude oil [15] - PX: The import from Japan is uncertain, and PTA demand provides some support. It is in a tight supply situation, and pay attention to cost changes [16] - PTA: The import of PX is uncertain, and downstream demand is weak. The supply is high, and the long - term bearish pressure is large [16] - Ethylene glycol: Port inventory has accumulated significantly, downstream demand is weakening, and the price is expected to remain low and fluctuate [16] - Short fiber: It rebounded slightly in the short term, but the later pressure is large. The terminal orders are decreasing seasonally, and it can be shorted on highs in the medium term [17] Agricultural Products - US soybeans: The overnight market declined. Brazil's November export volume is expected to increase, and there is an export order to China [19] - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The supply and demand of domestic oil mills are loose, the basis is weak, and there may be a phased correction [19] - Soybean and rapeseed oil: The price was boosted by EPA biodiesel news. The supply of domestic soybean oil is strong, and rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [20] - Palm oil: The Malaysian futures market continued to rise, but domestic inventory increased, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [20] - Corn: The price in Northeast China remained stable. Inventory is low, and there is a willingness to buy in the market. The futures may repair the basis [20] - Live pigs: The morning price was stable and strong. Supply is excessive, and the futures may continue to decline [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The weak US employment data has increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the global risk appetite continues to decline. The slowdown of China's economic data in October and the Fed's hawkish signals have dampened market risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and Fed monetary policy expectations. [3][4] - Different asset classes are expected to be in a short - term volatile state, and investors are advised to be cautious. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Overseas**: US employment data is weak, with a decrease in private - sector employment and an increase in continued unemployment claims, which raises the expectation of a Fed rate cut and cools global risk appetite. [3] - **Domestic**: China's economic data in October slowed down year - on - year and fell short of expectations, and the central bank restarted treasury bond trading to release liquidity. However, the Fed's hawkish signals dampened risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the stock index will be volatile in the short term. [3][4] - **Asset Recommendations**: Stocks are in short - term volatility, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; treasury bonds are in short - term volatility, and cautious long - positions are recommended; commodity sectors such as black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and precious metals are all in short - term volatility, and cautious waiting is recommended. [3] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as coal, batteries, and industrial metals, the domestic stock market continued to fall. The slowdown of economic data and Fed's signals dampened risk appetite. The short - term upward drive has weakened, and the stock index will be volatile in the short term. Short - term cautious waiting is recommended. [4] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose slightly on Tuesday night. The weak US employment data led the market to assess the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December. The short - term trend is volatile, and the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term cautious waiting and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are recommended. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market rebounded slightly on Tuesday, with low trading volume. Real - world demand is weak, and supply is restricted by losses. The market has no new contradictions, and the price has limited room to fall or rise. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended. [5][6] - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounded slightly on Tuesday. Iron - water production increased slightly, and demand is still strong in the short term, but the bottom of iron - water production is uncertain. The supply and demand situation has slightly improved. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Tuesday, but the futures prices fell. The demand for ferroalloys is weak. The operating rates and daily outputs of silicon manganese and silicon iron enterprises decreased. The futures prices are expected to remain range - bound. [7] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash main contract was weak on Tuesday. Supply decreased marginally due to some device overhauls, but the overall supply pressure remains. Demand for heavy soda is stable, and that for light soda has slightly recovered. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term and bearish in the medium - to - long term. [8] - **Glass**: The glass main contract oscillated on Tuesday. Supply remained stable, and there is a cold - repair expectation at the end of the year. Demand improved marginally, but downstream demand is still weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term. [8] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Copper prices have fallen recently. The high US copper inventory and the slow de - stocking in China limit the price increase. The suspension of an Indonesian copper mine will support the futures price, but there is a risk of a downward break in the short term. [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fell sharply on Tuesday. The Fed rate - cut expectation declined, and the inventory increase indicates poor de - stocking. If the expectation is repaired later, the aluminum price may decline significantly. [10] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, but the demand is weak. The social inventory has increased. The tin price is expected to remain range - bound at a high level in the medium - to - short term. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate main contract rose on Tuesday. After a previous sharp increase, the weighted contract significantly reduced positions. Investors are advised to wait and see due to large price fluctuations. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon main contract fell on Tuesday. After the end of the wet season, production in the southwest decreased, and the supply - demand is weak. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises. [12] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon main contract fell on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to be range - bound at a high level. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol market in the inland region mainly fell. The overall inventory is rising, and supply is expected to increase in the short term while demand is weak. There is a risk of shutdown in high - cost areas, but the gas - restriction devices have not been implemented. It may fall in the short term but is supported by the expectation of gas - restriction and cost. [14] - **PP**: The PP market showed a weak oscillation. Demand has improved, but the supply growth rate is too fast, leading to inventory increases. With the approaching of the traditional off - season, the demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to continue to decline. [14] - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price is weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support will gradually weaken. With weak cost support, the price is expected to continue to be under pressure. [15] - **Urea**: The urea market is firm with a slight increase. Supply pressure persists, and demand is differentiated. The price is under downward pressure in the short term but may stabilize after oscillation in the medium - to - long term. [15] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans remained stable at a high level supported by the news of China's potential purchase. The soybean harvest rate in the US is lower than last year and the five - year average, and the sowing in Argentina is delayed due to floods. [16] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply and demand of soybean and rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills are loose, and the basis is weak. With the weakening of US soybeans, the meal price may continue to correct, but it may stabilize later due to the slowdown of soybean procurement. [17] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of soybean oil exceeds demand, but the cost support from US soybeans makes the price stable and slightly strong. Rapeseed oil is in a state of continuous de - stocking, and the price is supported by the Canadian bio - fuel incentive plan. [17] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in December. Due to the policies in Indonesia, the palm oil price is expected to rise in the next few months. The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term. [17] - **Corn**: The current inventories of corn in northern ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are low. The futures may correct the basis, and the price is expected to be slightly strong. [18] - **Pigs**: The early - morning pig price was stable and slightly strong. The market supply is still in excess, but the farmers' reluctance to sell and the expected reduction in pig enterprises' sales support the price to be weakly stable. [18]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Weifeng Electronics is influenced by multiple complex factors including macroeconomic environment, market risk appetite, and sector fund rotation, while the company is committed to its strategic path in high-end precision connectors [2] Group 1: Company Strategy and Progress - The company has made solid progress in core technology layout, key customer certification, and overseas capacity construction in the fields of industrial control, new energy, and automotive electronics [2] - Management emphasizes the importance of investor returns and plans to enhance intrinsic value through operational efficiency optimization and strengthened industrial collaboration [2] Group 2: Market Considerations - Investors are advised to be aware of investment risks due to the various factors affecting stock price movements [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume remains low, and short - term market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index up further [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1] - The recent cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has led to a callback in copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metal prices, but the callback range of copper is expected to be limited. For different non - ferrous metals, there are different fundamental factors affecting their prices [1] - For various commodities such as steel, energy, and agricultural products, their prices are affected by factors such as seasonality, supply - demand relationship, cost, and macro - sentiment, and most of them are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with different risk and opportunity characteristics [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock and Bond Markets - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and short - term divergence will be digested during shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving factor [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks suppress the upward trend [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper price has a limited callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation in December [1] - Aluminum price has a callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation and limited industrial - side drive [1] - Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - Zinc has support below due to low LME inventory and signs of improvement in the domestic fundamentals [1] - Nickel price may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to macro - weakness and high inventory, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel continues [1] - Stainless steel futures are looking for a bottom in shock, and short - term operations are recommended, paying attention to selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Tin is still bullish in the long - term despite short - term pressure from the Fed rate - cut expectation [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals may be under pressure in the short term due to the hawkish statements of Fed officials, and attention should be paid to the upcoming US economic data [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production capacity is resuming, Southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and it is affected by polysilicon [1] - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation increases marginally in the fourth quarter [1] - Lithium carbonate: It may fluctuate due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and high hedging pressure [1] Steel and Iron Ore - For steel products, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose, and attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1] - Iron ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil is expected to run weakly due to the increase in production in the first half of November [1] - Soybean oil has support from domestic consumption demand and export window, but the CBOT soybean's retracement of policy premium has a short - term negative impact [1] - Rapeseed oil: The inability of Canada to cancel tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and plans to increase biodiesel production capacity make it difficult for Canadian rapeseed to be exported to China in the short term, and the basis is stable and slightly strong [1] - Cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to relevant policies and planting conditions [1] - Sugar: Global sugar supply turns from shortage to surplus, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be under pressure and follow the trend of raw sugar [1] - Corn: Short - term spot prices are firm, but the selling pressure is postponed, and the upward drive of the futures price is weak [1] - Soybean meal: The short - term upward expectation lacks impetus, and the market may start to trade the selling pressure of South American new crops from December to January [1] Energy and Chemicals - Fuel oil: Affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies, it is expected to fluctuate [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to decline due to factors such as the possible falsification of the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand [1] - Rubber: Different types of rubber have different price trends affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and market atmosphere [1] - PTA and related products: Their prices are affected by factors such as gasoline profit, device maintenance, and raw - material cost [1] - Ethylene glycol: Its price is affected by the decline of crude oil price, the increase of coal price, and the strong expectation of domestic device commissioning [1] - Other chemicals: Their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and device maintenance [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, experiencing fluctuations throughout the week[1] - The average daily trading volume remained stable above 20 trillion CNY[1] Sector Performance - The consumer sector, particularly social services, agricultural products, and commercial trade, showed significant recovery in trading activity[1] - The healthcare and consumer staples sectors led the weekly gains, with excess returns of 3.78% and 3.38% respectively[26] Investment Style Trends - Small-cap stocks demonstrated sustained activity, while growth stocks generally experienced declines[5] - Institutional heavyweights across various indices saw weekly adjustments, with the fund overlap index down by 1.76%[20] Market Sentiment - The micro-cap stock index's trading heat continued to recover, indicating improved market sentiment[5] - The overall risk appetite in the market remains balanced and defensive, reflecting cautious investor behavior[1] Risk Considerations - The report emphasizes that historical data does not guarantee future performance, highlighting the potential for market volatility due to macroeconomic changes[34]