Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The report presents basic data such as the ChinaBond Composite Index (254.4), ChinaBond Long/Medium and Short - term Index (245.4/209.1), 10 - year bank - interbank treasury bond yield (1.65), and enterprise/company/convertible bond scales (70.2/23.7/6.9 trillion) [4]. Summary by Category Government Debt Financing - **Total Government Debt**: The net financing of government bonds was 2190 billion yuan in the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15) and 2594 billion yuan in the 25th week (6/16 - 6/22). As of the 24th week, the cumulative net financing was 6.8 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.6 trillion yuan, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing hidden debts and treasury bonds [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The net financing of treasury bonds was 2621 billion yuan in the 24th week and 1351 billion yuan in the 25th week. The annual net financing of treasury bonds is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative net financing was 3.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 47.1%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [8]. - **Local Bonds**: The net financing of local bonds was - 430 billion yuan in the 24th week and 1243 billion yuan in the 25th week. As of the 24th week, the cumulative net financing was 3.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.1 trillion yuan [10]. - **New General Bonds**: The issuance of new general bonds was 13 billion yuan in the 24th week and 272 billion yuan in the 25th week. In 2025, the local deficit is 8000 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 3610 billion yuan, with a progress of 45.1%, exceeding the same period last year [10]. - **New Special Bonds**: The issuance of new special bonds was 71 billion yuan in the 24th week and 425 billion yuan in the 25th week. In 2025, the planned issuance of new special bonds is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.5%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 3196 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 1699 billion yuan have been issued [14]. - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: The issuance of special refinancing bonds was 267 billion yuan in the 24th week and 527 billion yuan in the 25th week. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.7 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 84% [28]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The net financing of urban investment bonds was - 6 billion yuan in the 24th week and is expected to be - 383 billion yuan in the 25th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is approximately 10.4 trillion yuan [30]. Other Data - **General Deficit**: As of the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15), the cumulative general deficit was 5.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 43.4%, exceeding the same period last year [7]. - **Project Coverage of Special New Special Bonds**: According to Enterprise Early - Warning System statistics, the cumulative number of idle land parcels covered by the disclosed acquisition of existing idle land projects is 4176, and the capital scale (including proposed) is approximately 4564 billion yuan [14].

Loan and Credit Analysis - In May, new loans amounted to 620 billion, showing a significant year-on-year decrease of 330 billion due to a low base[3] - The reduction in short-term loans and bill financing totaled 546 billion year-on-year, indicating a cooling in corporate short-term financing behavior[3] - The balance of loans saw a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points to 7.1%[3] Government Debt and Social Financing - New social financing in May reached 2.29 trillion, an increase of 224.8 billion year-on-year[4] - New government bonds issued amounted to 1.46 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion, supporting social financing growth[4] - The active issuance of corporate bonds totaled 149.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 121.1 billion, driven by lower long-term interest rates[4] Monetary Supply and Economic Indicators - M2 growth slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.9%, yet remains at a high level, contrasting with the declining loan growth rate[5] - In May, deposits from residents and enterprises increased by 50 billion and 382.4 billion respectively, while fiscal deposits saw a modest increase of 116.7 billion[5] - M1 experienced a significant year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points to 2.3%, marking a near 15-month high[5] Market Outlook and Risks - The current real estate market has not yet established a solid bottom, and the internal credit financing demand is cooling, making it difficult for minor rate cuts to reverse the trend quickly[5] - The potential for further monetary easing remains, with a forecast for a 10 basis point rate cut in June[5] - Risks include the possibility of monetary policy easing being less than expected[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The report presents the weekly observation data of government debt, including the net financing and issuance progress of various types of government bonds, as well as the net financing and balance of urban investment bonds [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Government Debt Overall Situation - The net financing of national debt plus the issuance of new local bonds were 214 billion yuan in the 23rd week (6/2 - 6/8) and 268.9 billion yuan in the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15). As of the 23rd week, the cumulative general deficit was 4.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 41.1%, exceeding the same period last year [1][6] - The net financing of government bonds was 248.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 217.5 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 6.6 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.7 trillion yuan, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing hidden debts and national debt [6] National Debt - The net financing of national debt was 19.8 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 26.05 billion yuan in the 24th week. The total net financing of national debt for the whole year is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 2.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 43.1%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][7] Local Debt - The net financing of local debt was 5.05 billion yuan in the 23rd week and -4.3 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.1 trillion yuan [1][10] New General Debt - The issuance of new general debt was 0.87 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 0.13 billion yuan in the 24th week. In 2025, the local deficit is 80 billion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 35.97 billion yuan, with a progress of 45%, exceeding the same period last year [1][10] New Special Debt - The issuance of new special debt was 0.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 0.71 billion yuan in the 24th week. In 2025, the arrangement for new special debt is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.3%, exceeding the same period last year [2][13] - Special new special bonds worth 26.04 billion yuan have been issued, and land reserve special bonds worth 10.83 billion yuan have been issued. The disclosed projects for acquiring idle land have covered 4,176 parcels of land, with a capital scale of about 45.64 billion yuan [2][13] Special Refinancing Bonds - The issuance of special refinancing bonds was 2.77 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 2.67 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 1.7 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 84% [2][27] Urban Investment Bonds - The net financing of urban investment bonds was -0.97 billion yuan in the 23rd week and is expected to be -2.91 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.5 trillion yuan [2][28][31]

Group 1 - The report defines fiscal sustainability as the long-term stability or decline of the debt-to-GDP ratio, or the future public revenue being sufficient to cover all public expenditures and accumulated debt [1][14]. - As of the end of 2023, China's explicit government debt reached 56.14% of GDP, while implicit debt accounted for 11.34%, leading to a total debt of 67.48% of GDP. Local government financing platform debt constituted 57.24% of GDP [2][16]. - The report emphasizes that maintaining fiscal sustainability does not require a zero deficit, but rather that the deficit should not exceed sustainable thresholds to avoid increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio [2][14]. Group 2 - The report highlights that reasonable uses of debt include infrastructure construction and counter-cyclical adjustments, but long-term reliance on debt for regular expenditures is unsustainable [3][20]. - Key factors for fiscal sustainability include economic growth and inflation, with nominal GDP growth being crucial. The report warns against deflation, which could exacerbate debt burdens [4][15]. - Structural reforms are necessary, including reducing administrative expenditures, optimizing the tax system, and improving social security systems to narrow structural deficits [4][5]. Group 3 - The report suggests that China should learn from international experiences, such as the EU's establishment of debt and deficit warning lines, to assess long-term risks while controlling debt levels [6]. - It emphasizes that China's fiscal issues are fundamentally structural, requiring tax optimization, expenditure restructuring, and market-oriented reforms for sustainable fiscal and economic interaction [6][24]. - The report concludes that while challenges such as high local debt and slowing growth exist, a reasonable policy mix can prevent a debt crisis and lay the foundation for long-term development [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The net financing of government bonds in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1) was 137.4 billion yuan, and 248.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week (June 2 - June 8). As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount reached 6.3 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.6 trillion yuan. The net financing of treasury bonds in the 22nd week was 0 yuan, and 198 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 2.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 40.2%. The net financing of local bonds in the 22nd week was 137.4 billion yuan, and 50.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2 trillion yuan [1]. - The net financing of new general bonds in the 22nd week was 2.36 billion yuan, and 0.87 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 35.1 billion yuan, with a progress of 43.9%. The net financing of new special bonds in the 22nd week was 15.6 billion yuan, and 0.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.1%. Special new special bonds of 243.9 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 108.3 billion yuan have been issued. The net financing of special refinancing bonds in the 22nd week was 0.5 billion yuan, and 2.77 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 81%. The net financing of urban investment bonds in the 22nd week was 0.33 billion yuan, and is expected to be -1.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds was approximately 10.5 trillion yuan [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Government Debt Financing - The net financing of government bonds in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1) was 137.4 billion yuan, and 248.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week (June 2 - June 8). As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount reached 6.3 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.6 trillion yuan [1]. Treasury Bonds - The net financing of treasury bonds in the 22nd week was 0 yuan, and 198 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 2.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 40.2%. The special treasury bonds issued were 17.6 billion yuan, including 10.5 billion yuan of capital - injection special treasury bonds and 7.1 billion yuan of 30 - year ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [1]. Local Bonds - The net financing of local bonds in the 22nd week was 137.4 billion yuan, and 50.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2 trillion yuan [1]. New General Bonds - The net financing of new general bonds in the 22nd week was 2.36 billion yuan, and 0.87 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 35.1 billion yuan, with a progress of 43.9% [2]. New Special Bonds - The net financing of new special bonds in the 22nd week was 15.6 billion yuan, and 0.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.1%. Special new special bonds of 243.9 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 108.3 billion yuan have been issued [2]. Special Refinancing Bonds - The net financing of special refinancing bonds in the 22nd week was 0.5 billion yuan, and 2.77 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 81% [2]. Urban Investment Bonds - The net financing of urban investment bonds in the 22nd week was 0.33 billion yuan, and is expected to be -1.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds was approximately 10.5 trillion yuan [2]. Basic Data - The ChinaBond Composite Index was 254.4; the ChinaBond Long/Medium - Short - Term Index was 245.4/209.1; the yield of inter - bank treasury bonds (10Y) was 1.68; the scale of enterprise/company/convertible bonds (in hundreds of billions) was 69.9/23.8/6.9 [5].

Report Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View - The net financing of government bonds and the issuance of new local bonds are increasing. As of the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1), the cumulative general deficit reached 4.7 trillion, with a progress of 39.3%, exceeding the same period last year. The net financing of government bonds is expected to continue to strongly support fiscal expenditure [1][8]. Summary by Category Government Debt General Situation - Net financing of government bonds in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1) was 1374 billion, and in the 23rd week (June 2 - June 8) it was 2485 billion. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 6.3 trillion, exceeding the same period last year by 3.6 trillion [1][8]. - Net financing of government bonds + new local bond issuance in the 22nd week was 1816 billion, and in the 23rd week it was 2140 billion [1][8]. Treasury Bonds - Net financing of treasury bonds in the 22nd week was 0 billion, and in the 23rd week it was 1980 billion. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 2.7 trillion, with a progress of 40.2%, exceeding the average of the past five years' same - period. The special treasury bonds issued were 1760 billion, including 1050 billion for capital injection and 710 billion for 30 - year ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [1][10]. Local Bonds - Net financing of local bonds in the 22nd week was 1374 billion, and in the 23rd week it was 505 billion. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion, exceeding the same period last year by 2 trillion [1][12]. New General Bonds - New general bonds issued in the 22nd week were 236 billion, and in the 23rd week were 87 billion. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 3510 billion, with a progress of 43.9%, exceeding the same period last year [2][14]. New Special Bonds - New special bonds issued in the 22nd week were 1560 billion, and in the 23rd week were 73 billion. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion, with a progress of 37.1%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds issued were 2439 billion, and land reserve special bonds issued were 1083 billion [2][16]. Special Refinancing Bonds - Special refinancing bonds issued in the 22nd week were 50 billion, and in the 23rd week were 277 billion. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion, with an issuance progress of 81% [2][29]. Urban Investment Bonds - Net financing of urban investment bonds in the 22nd week was 33 billion, and in the 23rd week it was expected to be - 173 billion. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds was about 10.5 trillion [2][32]. Basic Data - The ChinaBond Composite Index was 254.4; the ChinaBond Long/Medium - Short - Term Index was 245.4/209.1; the 10 - year inter - bank treasury bond yield was 1.68; the scale of enterprise/company/convertible bonds (in billions) was 69.9/23.8/6.9 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The net financing of government bonds in May was nearly 1.5 trillion yuan, which is expected to continue to strongly support fiscal expenditure. As of the 21st week (May 19 - May 25), the cumulative net financing of government bonds reached 6.2 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.9 trillion yuan, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing implicit debts and treasury bonds. The cumulative generalized deficit was 4.5 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.7%, exceeding the same period last year [1][6]. Summary by Related Categories Treasury Bonds - The net financing of treasury bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 243.5 billion yuan, and 0 yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 2.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 40.2%, exceeding the same period in the past five years. The total annual net financing of treasury bonds is 6.66 trillion yuan. In 2025, the central deficit is 4.86 trillion yuan, and special treasury bonds of 1.8 trillion yuan are arranged: 1.3 trillion yuan is for ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, of which 30 billion yuan is for consumer goods trade - in; 500 billion yuan is for special treasury bonds to supplement the capital of state - owned large - scale banks [7]. Local Bonds - The net financing of local bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 142.6 billion yuan, and 137.4 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 3.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.4 trillion yuan [9]. New General Bonds - The net financing of new general bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 5.5 billion yuan, and 23.6 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 327.4 billion yuan, with a progress of 40.9%, exceeding the same period last year. The local deficit in 2025 is 800 billion yuan [2][12]. New Special Bonds - The net financing of new special bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 107.6 billion yuan, and 156 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). In 2025, the planned issuance of new special bonds is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 1.5 trillion yuan, with a progress of 33.5%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 242.4 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 100.8 billion yuan have been issued. As of May 25, 2025, 25 provinces and cities such as Guangdong and Anhui have successively announced projects to acquire existing idle land, covering 4,071 parcels of land with a capital scale of about 444.3 billion yuan [2][15]. Special Refinancing Bonds - The net financing of special refinancing bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 25.1 billion yuan, and 5 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 1.6 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 81% [2][30]. Urban Investment Bonds - The net financing of urban investment bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was - 15.9 billion yuan, and is expected to be - 15.2 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.5 trillion yuan [2][32].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Standard Chartered Bank indicates that if Trump's policies increase U.S. debt without boosting economic growth, the risk of a significant decline in the dollar next year will rise [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Debt and Economic Growth - The simultaneous rise in U.S. government debt and external liabilities poses a significant risk to the dollar and U.S. bonds, potentially leading to a loss of confidence from foreign investors in the U.S.'s long-term borrowing capacity [1]. - The expanding U.S. deficit is reducing national savings and increasing reliance on foreign savings, which translates into a higher current account deficit [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Concerns are growing among foreign creditors regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt if tariffs and tax policies fail to stimulate growth, which could manifest as higher risk premiums, either through increased interest rates or a weaker dollar [2][3]. - Investors are beginning to question the stability of U.S. assets due to Trump's aggressive tariff policies and their chaotic implementation [2]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Standard Chartered believes that foreign investors are currently hesitant to fully divest from traditional safe-haven assets, as they await the impact of Trump's policies on growth [3]. - If the tax reform is approved, it may provide some economic benefits this year, but the positive effects are expected to fade by mid-2026 or 2027, raising concerns about long-term growth and debt impacts [3]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Limitations - The effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's policy tools may be limited in the face of potential crises, with any easing measures possibly not extending to longer-duration bonds [4]. - While the U.S. government can continue to issue dollar-denominated debt, the risk of effective default through inflation could become a substantial concern if the debt trajectory is not stabilized [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The short - term gold price lacks direct upward momentum and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, while the mid - and long - term logic needs more catalysts [10]. - The US may increase sanctions on Russia, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to end in the short term, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate in the short term [13]. - The A - share market continues to shrink in volume, with a seesaw effect between small - cap and large - cap styles, and the gap between high risk appetite and a fragile structure is widening [3]. - The risk of repeated changes in US tariff policies remains, and the US stock market is expected to be weakly volatile [20]. - The inventory of agricultural products such as soybean meal is expected to continue to increase, and the oil market is expected to remain volatile [22][26]. - The prices of black metals are affected by factors such as policy and demand, showing different trends, and caution is needed in short - term operations [29][31]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals are supported by a weak US dollar, but the upward space is limited, and different investment strategies are recommended for different varieties [37]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand and policies, with different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [55][70]. - The container shipping index is affected by port congestion and other factors, and there are opportunities for callback buying [79]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - EU - US negotiations continue. Due to the US Memorial Day holiday, trading was light. Trump postponed the tariff threat, and market risk - aversion eased. Gold continued to fluctuate. In the short term, the gold price lacks upward momentum, and in the medium and long term, more catalysts are needed [10]. - Investment advice: The short - term gold price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Lagarde said the euro could replace the US dollar. The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US. Trump considers additional sanctions on Russia, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to end soon. The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [13]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [14]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Central Huijin emphasizes its role in maintaining financial stability. Moody's maintains China's sovereign credit rating. The A - share market continues to shrink in volume, with a seesaw effect between small - cap and large - cap styles [15][17][18]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to make a balanced allocation [19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US. The US stock market is affected by tariff and government debt issues and is expected to be weakly volatile [20]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term due to concerns about government debt and tariff disturbances [20]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal continues to rise. As the arrival of imported soybeans increases, the supply pressure dominates, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [21][22]. - Investment advice: The futures price will temporarily remain volatile, and the spot basis will be under pressure [23]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From May 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 7.34% month - on - month, and production increased by 0.73%. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased. The oil market is expected to continue to fluctuate [24][25][26]. - Investment advice: The oil market will continue to fluctuate. Rapeseed oil is suitable for long - term allocation, soybean oil for short - term allocation, and palm oil for medium - term allocation [26]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The proposed use of special land - reserve bonds exceeds 350 billion yuan. The new contracts signed by the top five construction central enterprises in the first four months totaled about 2.4 trillion yuan. Steel prices have fallen significantly, and short - term unilateral operations require caution [27][28][29]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term unilateral operations and consider hedging on rallies for spot [30]. 2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port was weakly stable. Coal prices are expected to stop falling in the short term but will continue to decline later due to high supply and low expected summer consumption growth [31]. - Investment advice: Coal prices may stop falling in the short term but will continue to decline later [31]. 2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The full - production time of the Iron Bridge project is postponed. Iron ore prices are following the weak trend of the overall black market, and the overall price is expected to remain weak [32]. - Investment advice: The overall price of iron ore is expected to remain weak [34]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The spot trading volume of electrolytic copper decreased, and the social inventory continued to decline. The COMEX copper net long position continued to decline. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [35][36][37]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the copper price is likely to continue to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral and arbitrage operations [38]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Integrated is a candidate for a 22MW photovoltaic cell component procurement project. The spot price of polysilicon has fallen slightly. Whether leading enterprises can jointly cut production will have a significant impact on the fundamentals [40]. - Investment advice: For ordinary investors, unilateral operations are risky. Consider gradually taking profits on PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 long spreads [41]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of silicone raw rubber has declined. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The spot price may bottom out, but futures are more affected by sentiment [42]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions, and pay attention to the cash - flow risk of large enterprises [42]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - BYD signed a 3.5GWh energy - storage order. The current market is dominated by the downward spiral of salt and ore prices. In the short term, the decline space is limited [44]. - Investment advice: The long - term bearish pattern remains unchanged, but in the short term, consider partial profit - taking or contract - rolling for previous short positions [44]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Anhui Lukong and Zhejiang Tianneng signed a strategic cooperation agreement. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased significantly. The supply is not expected to be loose in the short term, and the mid - term low - buying idea is emerging [47]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term and gradually pay attention to mid - term low - buying opportunities [48]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel warehouse receipt in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The quota issuance of Indonesian RKAB exceeded expectations. The price of nickel ore is supported, but the upward space of nickel - iron is limited [49]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to interval trading opportunities in the short term and mid - term short - selling opportunities [50]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The 0 - 3 spread of LME zinc was at a discount. Peru's zinc concentrate production increased year - on - year. The domestic zinc supply is expected to be loose, and the social inventory may turn upward. The zinc price is recommended to be shorted [52]. - Investment advice: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies, and consider long - term spreads and long - short positions between domestic and foreign markets [53]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Haikorelin plans to shut down for maintenance, affecting product supply. The Shandong spot price has signs of stabilization, and the propane price may回调. The spot price is expected to stabilize at a low level in the short term [53]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [54]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The OPEC+ meeting will be advanced by one day. The market expects OPEC+ to increase production in July, and the supply growth potential continues to pressure oil prices [55]. - Investment advice: The short - term upward momentum is weak [56]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price increased, and the basis strengthened. The demand is at a high level, and the supply is below 80% with inventory reduction, so the basis has rebounded [58]. - Investment advice: The short - term PTA performance may be stronger than the cost - end oil price, and the price and spreads are expected to be strong [59]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly. The demand is recovering, and the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate upward [60]. - Investment advice: The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate upward [61]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong was stable with a slight increase. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is divided. The current spot is strong, but the upward momentum is weakening, and the futures may fluctuate [63]. - Investment advice: The alumina market has little impact on caustic soda. The current spot is strong, but the futures may fluctuate [63]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was slightly weak. The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the market is expected to fluctuate [64]. - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to fluctuate [65]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder was narrowly sorted, and the futures were weakly volatile. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high, and the market is expected to fluctuate [66]. - Investment advice: The PVC market is expected to fluctuate [66]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories were mostly stable with some slight increases. The industry is operating at a high level, and the supply pressure is increasing. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [70]. - Investment advice: The processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes [70]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The central government allocated 1.4 billion yuan for agricultural disaster prevention and pest control. The urea market was weak, and attention should be paid to factors such as demand, policy, and supply - side changes [71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to aspects such as agricultural demand, policy changes, and supply - side switching after the peak season [72]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased significantly. The styrene market was weakly volatile. The supply is expected to improve, and the market may adjust. Pay attention to the paper - cargo delivery game at the end of the month [74]. - Investment advice: The far - month styrene has limited driving force, and the market is expected to adjust. Pay attention to the paper - cargo delivery game at the end of the month [75]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers decreased. The futures price of soda ash fell, affected by new production capacity. The short - term maintenance of production facilities may support the price, but a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium term [76]. - Investment advice: Short - term production - facility maintenance may support the price, but short - sell on rallies in the medium term [76]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market changed slightly. The futures price rose slightly, and the spot market was still weak. The price is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [78]. - Investment advice: The glass futures price is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [78]. 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - European ports are congested, and the container shipping index is affected. The US - line rush - shipping expectation has ebbed, and there are opportunities for callback buying [79]. - Investment advice: There are opportunities for callback buying [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - From the April fiscal data, although revenue has improved, government bond financing has also contributed significantly to the expenditure growth rate, with the expenditure growth rate of the second account reaching as high as 45%. As of now in May, government bond net financing has exceeded 1.4 trillion, and it is expected to continue to strongly support fiscal expenditure [1][7] Summary by Related Catalog Government Bond Financing - The net financing of government bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 6723 billion, and 3843 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 5.8 trillion, exceeding the same period last year by 3.9 trillion [1][7] Treasury Bond Financing - The net financing of treasury bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 5012 billion, and 2417 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 2.4 trillion, with a progress of 36.5%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][8] Local Bond Financing - The net financing of local bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 1711 billion, and 1426 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 3.4 trillion, exceeding the same period last year by 2.3 trillion [2][10] New General Bond - The net financing of new general bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 196 billion, and 55 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 3219 billion, with a progress of 40.2%, exceeding the same period last year [2][11] New Special Bond - The net financing of new special bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 775 billion, and 1076 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 1.4 trillion, with a progress of 31.1%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 2424 billion have been issued, and land reserve special bonds of 964 billion have been issued [2][16] Special Refinancing Bond - The net financing of special refinancing bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 0 billion, and 251 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 1.6 trillion, with an issuance progress of 80% [2][29] Urban Investment Bond - The net financing of urban investment bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was -252 billion, and it is expected to be -346 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is approximately 10.5 trillion [2][32]