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国债期货:政策预期再升温,股债双牛,市场方向仍未明,震荡延续
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 01:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On April 22, the bond and stock markets both showed positive trends, but the market direction remains unclear and the oscillation is expected to continue [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On April 22, treasury bond futures closed with across - the - board gains. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.50%, 0.17%, 0.07%, and 0.01% respectively. The treasury bond futures index was 0.1. The volume - price factor was bullish, while the fundamental factor was bearish. Without leverage, the cumulative returns of the strategy were - 0.55% in the past 20 days, - 0.64% in the past 60 days, 0.28% in the past 120 days, and 1.03% in the past 240 days [1] - The market opened lower and then oscillated and rebounded. The ChiNext Index led the gains, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded seven consecutive positive days. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.59%. Most stocks rose, with over 4300 stocks in the entire market rising [1] Capital Situation - On April 22, the overnight shibor was 1.7090%, down 0.7bp from the previous trading day; the 7 - day shibor was 1.6700%, down 1.0bp; the 14 - day shibor was 1.8000%, up 0.3bp; the 1 - month shibor was 1.7540%, down 0.4bp [2] Treasury Bond Futures Market - The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the trading volume and open interest of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year main contracts on the previous trading day are provided. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year active CTD bonds and their IRRs are also given, with the current R007 around 1.7262% [3] Money and Bond Markets - On April 22, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market traded 2 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.12%. Overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day, and 1 - month rates showed different changes compared to the previous trading day [4] - The treasury bond yield curve shifted down by 0.52 - 1.54BP, while the credit bond yield curve showed mixed changes [4] Institutional Position Changes - The daily net long - position changes of private funds, foreign capital, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 1.47%, 4.61%, and 3.64% respectively. The weekly changes showed that private funds increased by 1.61%, while foreign capital and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 0.67% and 0.57% respectively [6] Macro and Industry News - On April 22, the central bank conducted 220.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.50%, unchanged from before [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of treasury bond futures was 0, indicating a neutral view [10]