Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw continues, with all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market is influenced by the stock market, risk preference adjustment, Fed rate cut expectations, and global trade uncertainties. It oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short-term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - Due to the decline in repo rates, Treasury bond futures prices are fluctuating. Traders are advised to focus on the decline of the 2512 basis. For hedging, considering the medium-term adjustment pressure, short positions can use far-month contracts for moderate hedging [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month-on-month increase and 0.00% year-on-year change, while China's PPI (monthly) has a -0.20% month-on-month and -3.60% year-on-year change [9]. - Economic indicators (monthly updated): Social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a 1.04 trillion yuan increase and a 0.24% growth rate; M2 year-on-year is 8.80%, up 0.50% with a 6.02% growth rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, up 0.10% with a 0.20% growth rate [9]. - Economic indicators (daily updated): The US dollar index is 98.29, up 0.13 with a 0.13% growth rate; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1406, down 0.004 with a -0.05% change; SHIBOR 7-day is 1.44, up 0.00 with a 0.28% growth rate; DR007 is 1.45, up 0.01 with a 0.51% growth rate; R007 is 1.67, down 0.26 with a -13.67% change; the 3M interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.55, up 0.00 with a 0.08% growth rate; the AA-AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, up 0.00 with a 0.08% growth rate [9]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the closing price trends, price changes, precipitation funds trends, positions ratios, net positions ratios, long-short positions ratios, spreads between government bonds and Treasury bonds, and Treasury bond issuance of Treasury bond futures main continuous contracts [12][13][16]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Charts show the trading statistics of interbank pledged repurchase and local government bond issuance [25]. 4. Spread Overview - Charts present the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures, and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [28][35][36]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts display the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [42][46][49]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [51][55]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts present the implied yield and Treasury bond yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [58][60]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield and Treasury bond yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [65][71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "Oscillation" [7][8][9] Core Viewpoints - Stock index futures are seeing a trend of capital rotation, with the market style possibly returning to a dumbbell structure, and investors are advised to adjust their portfolios accordingly [7] - Stock index options should continue with a hedging and defensive approach, and it is recommended to hold put options for defense [7][8] - The stock - bond seesaw continues to drive the release of long - term sentiment in treasury bond futures, but the market sentiment remains cautious, and the subsequent trend may be oscillatory [8][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts was - 15.81 points, - 10.67 points, - 51.45 points, and - 38.15 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 14.02 points, 1.32 points, 28.21 points, and 26.12 points [7] - The price difference between the current - month and next - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM was 7.4 points, 0.0 points, 57.6 points, and 59.0 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 2.8 points, - 2.2 points, 7.6 points, and - 8.2 points [7] - The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by 12436 lots, 8984 lots, 16332 lots, and 5496 lots [7] - The equity market declined across the board, with the Sci - Tec 50 and ChiNext Index leading the decline. The technology sector may experience capital withdrawal, and investors are advised to switch to a dumbbell - style portfolio or reduce IM long positions [7] Stock Index Options - The equity market continued to weaken, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 1.25% in a single day. The trading volume of each option variety increased by 22.27%, the average position PCR indicator decreased by 12.68%, and the implied volatility of current - month contracts strengthened [7][8] - It is recommended to continue holding put options for defense [7][8] Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume and position changes of T, TF, TS, and TL next - quarter contracts varied. The cross - period and cross - variety price differences also had corresponding changes, and the basis of each variety also changed [8] - The central bank announced a 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation, but considering the maturity of 100 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase this month, it is hard to say it is beneficial to the bond market [8][9] - Trend strategy: Oscillation. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Look for long - end arbitrage opportunities. Curve strategy: Consider steepening the yield curve [9] 2. Economic Calendar - In the EU, the unemployment rate in the eurozone in July was 6.2%, the preliminary CPI year - on - year in August was 2.1%, the preliminary core CPI year - on - year was 2.3%, the PPI month - on - month in July was 0.4%, and the PPI year - on - year was 0.4% [10] - In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, the ADP employment number in August was 134,617,000, and the new ADP employment number was 54,000 [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", aiming to promote the high - end, intelligent, and green development of the industry [11] - The General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Releasing the Potential of Sports Consumption and Further Promoting the High - Quality Development of the Sports Industry", focusing on expanding sports consumption scenarios [12] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully provided in the given text [13][17][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since mid - July 2025, the credit bond trend has generally shown an "M" shape. Short - term bonds are more resilient than long - term bonds. Compared with previous "stock - strong and bond - weak" market conditions, this credit bond adjustment has different characteristics, mainly due to fewer significant negative factors. In the current situation where the equity market trend is not clear, it is recommended to adopt a medium - short - duration credit sinking strategy, and then consider a credit bond duration - extension strategy when market warming signals are observed [3][13][16]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. The credit bond trend has generally shown an "M" shape since mid - July - From July 21 to August 29, 2025, short - term bonds were more resilient than long - term bonds. One - year short - term urban investment bonds and bank ordinary bonds performed better, with yield adjustments of about 4 - 7BP and little widening of credit spreads. Five - year and above urban investment bonds and secondary perpetual bonds had more significant declines, and urban investment bonds performed poorly [3][14]. - The reasons for the credit bond adjustment were mainly the strong performance of the equity market suppressing the bullish sentiment in the bond market. The short - term bonds were more resilient because the popularity of "fixed income +" funds increased, and short - duration bonds could provide coupon income and reduce portfolio volatility [16]. 2. Differences between this credit bond adjustment and previous "stock - strong and bond - weak" market conditions - Different from previous adjustments, this credit bond adjustment had a smaller amplitude compared with interest - rate bonds and previous credit bond adjustments. The short - term yield increase was smaller, and short - term credit spreads were partially compressed, while they widened significantly in the past [3]. - The reasons for these differences were that in addition to the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, the previous two rounds were also affected by factors such as redemption pressure and liquidity tightening, while there were no significant negative factors in this round [3]. 3. Outlook for credit bonds - Previous bond market adjustments caused by the "stock - bond seesaw" effect usually ended when the stock market entered a correction. Either credit bonds or interest - rate bonds might recover first. - Currently, with the equity market trend still unclear, it is recommended to focus on a medium - short - duration credit sinking strategy and pay attention to short - term credits with coupons. When market warming signals are observed, a credit bond duration - extension strategy can be considered [3][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of public REITs, highlighting the need for patience in improvement, with various sectors showing distinct performance trends [2][3][4]. Fundamental Outlook - The fundamentals of the REIT sector remain divided, with resilient performance in consumer and rental housing sectors, while industrial parks and logistics face short-term pressures [7][8][10]. - The consumer REITs benefit from government policies aimed at boosting consumption, showing improved foot traffic and sales [10]. - The rental housing sector maintains stability, with some market-oriented projects exploring diversified income streams [9][10]. - Industrial parks are under significant operational challenges due to increased supply and weakened leasing demand, with no immediate signs of improvement [7][8]. - Logistics REITs show manageable operational pressures, with regional performance varying significantly [8][9]. - Municipal environmental projects exhibit relative stability, but competition and cash flow recovery need monitoring [12]. - Energy projects, particularly hydropower and offshore wind, performed better than peers, but the impact of new energy market transactions remains to be seen [13]. Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a phase of fluctuation, with several concerns including the "stock-bond seesaw," valuation, fundamentals, and lock-up expirations [14][15]. - The current market valuation of public REITs is high, with a P/NAV ratio of 1.28, indicating a need for careful evaluation of investment opportunities [15][16]. - The article suggests that potential catalysts for market recovery include declining long-term interest rates, improved macroeconomic expectations, and favorable policy changes [17]. Distribution Performance - The distribution performance across sectors is increasingly divergent, with most projects experiencing a year-on-year decline in available distribution amounts [19][20]. - Consumer REITs showed an average year-on-year increase of 4.0% in available distribution amounts, while industrial parks and logistics faced declines of 9.5% and 4.3%, respectively [19]. - The article breaks down the adjustments from EBITDA to available distributions into five key components, highlighting the importance of cash adjustments and the sustainability of certain adjustments [20].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment since August 2025 has been characterized by a strong performance in high-growth sectors, particularly in China's technology stocks, alongside a backdrop of rising global bond yields and shifting currency dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In August 2025, major asset performances ranked as follows: Sci-Tech 50 > ChiNext Index > CSI 300 > Gold > Hang Seng Tech > Dow Jones > LME Copper > European Stocks > NASDAQ > Hang Seng Index > RMB > 0 > China Bond > Nanhua Composite > USD > Crude Oil > Long VIX [1][14]. - Risk assets generally rose in August, with notable performance in Chinese assets, a concurrent appreciation of the RMB, and pressure on government bonds [2][14]. - The domestic equity market saw a broad increase, with the Wind All A Index rising by 10.9% in August, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 13.4 basis points to 1.84% [2][27]. Group 2: Macro Trading Themes - The primary macro trading themes since August 2025 include a "high-growth narrative" led by the Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext Index, a "rate cut trade" in the U.S. following downward revisions in employment data, and a rise in "risk aversion" reflected in increasing global bond yields [3][57]. - The U.S. employment data revision has opened a window for potential Fed rate cuts, influencing various asset classes to align with this "rate cut trade" [3][57]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic indicators show that the U.S. hard data has remained stable while soft data has slightly improved since August, contrasting with Europe and Japan, where economic outlooks are mixed [4][70]. - China's economic indicators suggest a slowdown, with an estimated actual GDP growth of approximately 4.76% for August, aligning with seasonal economic characteristics [4][70]. Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China has shown a narrowing year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand housing performing better than new homes, indicating a trend of "price for volume" [2][42]. - The rental yield in major cities has remained above the 30-year government bond yield, although the leading margin has narrowed compared to previous periods [2][42]. Group 5: Market Volatility and Sentiment - The volatility in the market has seen a decrease in August, with the number of daily ranking changes among 19 asset classes dropping from 124 to 114 [15][62]. - The VIX index has shown signs of recovery, indicating increased market uncertainty and potential adjustments in global risk assets [15][63].

Group 1 - The bond market has shown resilience in September, but some ultra-long bond yields have slightly increased against the trend, with "bond switching" becoming a key factor driving market movements [1][2] - As of September 4, the yield on the 10-year government bond (active bond 250011) rose by 0.75 basis points to 1.755%, while the 30-year government bond (active bond 2500002) increased by 1.15 basis points to 2.0085% [1] - The trading volume of the ultra-long government bond "25 Ultra Long Special Government Bond 06" has surged, with nearly 900 trades over three consecutive days, indicating a shift in market focus towards new bonds [2][3] Group 2 - The process of "bond switching" typically involves a shift in market pricing towards newly issued bonds due to their interest rate advantages and improved liquidity, leading to a decline in trading volume of older bonds [3] - The issuance schedule for the 30-year ultra-long special government bonds is relatively fast, with three more issuances planned in September and October, suggesting a potential for higher cost-effectiveness in pre-switch configurations [3] - The trading behavior indicates that the main sellers of ultra-long bonds are insurance funds and mutual funds, while banks and brokerages are the primary buyers, reflecting a strategic shift in market participation [3][6] Group 3 - Market sentiment appears to be at a short-term turning point, influenced by the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with overall bond market performance being strong despite the rapid rise in long-end bond yields at the end of the trading day [6] - Future fluctuations in ultra-long bond rates may require stronger consensus expectations, potentially driven by a systemic weakening of market risk appetite or additional monetary easing from the central bank [6] - If the stock market continues its consolidation phase, the bond market is expected to remain within a volatile range, while a stock market recovery could test the upper limits of current bond market fluctuations [6]

Market Performance - The bond market showed mixed performance on September 4, with interbank cash bonds initially strong but yields rising in the afternoon, while government bond futures mostly closed higher [1] - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.26% to 117.330, the 10-year main contract increased by 0.13% to 108.260, and the 5-year main contract went up by 0.06% to 105.755, while the 2-year main contract fell by 0.01% to 102.432 [2] Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year China Development Bank bond rose by 1.1 basis points to 1.857%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 1.7525% [2] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield fell by 4.2 basis points to 3.538%, and the 10-year German bond yield decreased by 4.6 basis points to 2.737% [3] - In Asia, the 10-year Japanese bond yield dropped by 3.7 basis points to 1.593% [4] Primary Market - The China Development Bank's three financial bonds had winning yields mostly below the China Bond valuation, with yields of 1.3519%, 1.6702%, and 1.87% for 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds respectively [5] - The bidding multiples for Hebei Province's local bonds exceeded 20 times, with a 10-year bond yield of 1.99% and a 15-year bond yield of 2.22% [5] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2126 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan for the day [6] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly rose, with the overnight rate unchanged at 1.316% and the 7-day rate up by 0.4 basis points to 1.437% [6] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the liquidity gap in September may narrow compared to August, with limited government bond supply disturbances and a supportive monetary policy [7] - Shenwan Hongyuan pointed out that the low interest rate environment has led to significant changes in asset allocation behavior, with funds seeking better alternatives due to low returns on deposits and pure bonds [8]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Under the stock - bond seesaw, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The bullish stock market has led to a callback in risk appetite, which is beneficial to the bond market. At the same time, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the increase in global trade uncertainty have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a - 0.20% month - on - month decrease and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly economic indicators**: The social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.24%. M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 6.02%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [9]. - **Daily economic indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.16, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 and a decline rate of 0.16%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1442, with a month - on - month increase of 0.004 and a growth rate of 0.06%. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.43, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.14%. DR007 was 1.44, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.28%. R007 was 1.67, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.26 and a decline rate of 13.67%. The inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M was 1.55, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.03%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.03% [9]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are used to show the situation of the Treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts, the price change rate of each variety, the precipitation of funds, the proportion of positions held, the net position ratio of the top 20, the long - short position ratio of the top 20, the spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [11][12][15]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The charts show the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the issuance of local government bonds [25]. 4. Spread Overview - Multiple charts show the inter - period spread trend of Treasury bond futures and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread [28][33][34]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [36][39][47]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [49][54]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][57]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [63][66][69]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate falls, the price of Treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each financial derivative, it gives a "neutral" outlook, indicating a "hold" or "neutral" stance on trading in these markets [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the stock index futures market has ebbed, with the All-A Index falling for two consecutive days, a significant reduction in trading volume, and multiple signs of weakening capital. It is recommended to shift to a barbell-style allocation and consider reducing positions [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, the equity market performed weakly. It is recommended to continue holding put options for defense [1][6]. - The bond market has returned to the stock-bond seesaw logic. If the stock market continues to adjust, the bullish sentiment in the bond market may further increase; otherwise, the bond market may give back its gains. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of the stock market [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The All-A Index fell 1.19% for two consecutive days, with military, non-bank, and software sectors leading the decline. Trading volume shrank to around 2.4 trillion, and the number of falling stocks exceeded 4,000. There are multiple signs of weakening capital, such as the breaking of the China Securities Convertible Bond and Microcap Index, the widening of the discount of IC and IM, and the decline in the proportion of margin trading purchases [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions in IM + dividend style or hold half of the long positions in IM [6]. Stock Index Options - **Market Performance**: The equity market was weak, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16%. The trading volume of each option variety decreased, the PCR of open interest continued to decline, and the implied volatility showed mixed trends [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold put options for defense [1][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: The bond market returned to the stock-bond seesaw logic. The stock market was weak, and the Shanghai Composite Index adjusted, which may have driven up risk aversion and bullish sentiment in the bond market. The open interest of the main contracts of each variety increased, especially the T and TL contracts [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The trend strategy is neutral. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, pay attention to long-end arbitrage opportunities. For curve strategies, pay attention to steepening the yield curve [6][7]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar shows data on the EU's unemployment rate, CPI, core CPI, PPI, and the US's ISM manufacturing PMI and ADP employment data from September 1 - 4, 2025 [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held its second meeting, aiming to strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies and promote the stable and healthy development of the bond market [10]. - According to the China Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.952 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 7%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 14.698 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9%. The wholesale volume of passenger car manufacturers was 2.409 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 17.934 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12% [10]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the text [11][15][27].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The Fed's Beige Book indicates rising inflation and economic downturn risks in the US, increasing stagflation risks and driving up gold prices. The market awaits US non - farm data, with gold likely to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - API data shows crude oil inventory accumulation. The market is concerned about OPEC+ potentially canceling the second - layer production cuts ahead of schedule. The short - term driving force is weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. - Short - term steel demand improvement is limited. Steel prices may fluctuate narrowly, and the demand recovery will determine the later trend [3]. - For coking coal, the supply is expected to shrink, and the demand from high - level hot metal production provides support. It should be viewed with a range - bound perspective in the short term [3]. - Silicon iron cost is supported, but the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. The short - term price decline is limited, and the price center will move down in the long term [4]. - Bond issuance may accelerate in the third quarter, affecting long - term bonds. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic, and long - term bonds may fluctuate bearishly [5]. - US employment data shows economic pressure, and some Fed officials signal rate cuts. The market awaits non - farm data, and the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver should be noted [5]. - Rubber supply is increasing but slower than usual, and demand is weak. It should be treated with a range - bound view [6]. - Methanol domestic production is rising, and the port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and may fluctuate downward in the short term [8]. - PTA supply is expected to increase, and its price should be treated with a bearish - fluctuating view [9]. - Short - term hog prices are weak in the near term and strong in the long term, and relevant trading strategies can be considered [10]. - Domestic and imported soybeans' prices are under pressure, and the US crop growth and international relations should be monitored [12]. - The market expects a bearish MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil, and trading should be short - selling on rallies [13]. - LLDPE prices are weak, and the L2601 contract may fluctuate downward in the short term [14]. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Fed's Beige Book shows rising inflation and economic downturn risks in the US, increasing stagflation risks, which is the driving force for gold's rise. The market awaits US non - farm data, and gold may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: US employment data shows economic pressure, and some Fed officials signal rate cuts. The market awaits non - farm data, and the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver should be noted [5]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: API data shows crude oil inventory accumulation. The market is concerned about OPEC+ potentially canceling the second - layer production cuts ahead of schedule. The short - term driving force is weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. Metals - **Steel**: Short - term demand improvement is limited. Steel prices may fluctuate narrowly, and the demand recovery will determine the later trend [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to shrink, and the demand from high - level hot metal production provides support. It should be viewed with a range - bound perspective in the short term, and the 2601 contract can be traded within the 1050 - 1200 range [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost is supported, but the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. The short - term price decline is limited, and the price center will move down in the long term. It's advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities [4]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Bond issuance may accelerate in the third quarter, affecting long - term bonds. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic, and long - term bonds may fluctuate bearishly [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans**: Domestic new - season soybeans are expected to increase in production, and the continuous release of state - reserve old grains and weak downstream demand put pressure on prices. The US crop growth and international relations should be monitored [12]. - **Palm Oil**: The market expects a bearish MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil. The domestic import profit is in a deeper inversion. It's advisable to short - sell on rallies [13]. Chemicals - **Rubber**: Supply is increasing but slower than usual, and demand is weak. It should be treated with a range - bound view [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic production is rising, and the port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 2405. It's advisable to wait and see [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic market is weakly stable and may fluctuate downward in the short term, with resistance at 1290. It's advisable to wait and see or short - sell on rallies [8]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to increase, and its price should be treated with a bearish - fluctuating view [9]. Others - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Prices are weak, and the L2601 contract may fluctuate downward in the short term, with resistance at 7255. It's advisable to short - sell on rallies [14]. - **Hogs**: Short - term prices are weak in the near term and strong in the long term. It's advisable to short the near - month contract and long the far - month contract or for farmers to sell - hedge according to the slaughter schedule [10].