中银证券认为，上半年A股在估值正贡献支撑下震荡收涨，盈利端呈现一定程度的负贡献。从风格因子 的表现来看，小市值、低估值占优，高盈利组合仅在一季度有所表现。当前市场对于盈利因子计价相对 较弱，7—8月中报业绩窗口期，盈利因子有望迎来阶段性修复。估值端，基本面及宏观政策中长期预期 的修复使得市场下行风险较低，充裕的流动性环境下，预计下半年A股市场有望呈现震荡上行趋势。 财信证券认为，近期大盘维持了反弹走势，沪指盘中创下年内新高。不过市场成交额连续缩量，导致近 期热点题材板块的延续性仍有待改善。短期操作上，建议把握好热点题材板块间的轮动节奏。中长期 看，在经济基本面、增量政策、流动性尚未出现明显拐点时，市场趋势性行情或需等待。但在中央汇金 类"平准基金"功能持续发挥下，市场向下空间也相对有限。预计第三季度A股指数仍将在924行情以来 的宽幅震荡区间内，市场风格或将继续轮动。 中原证券认为，周四早盘股指高开后震荡回落，盘中沪指在3447点附近获得支撑，午后股指震荡回升， 盘中消费电子、电子元件、电池以及通信设备等行业表现较好；船舶制造、采掘、游戏以及工程机械等 行业表现较弱。长期资金入市步伐加快，ETF规模稳步增长， ...

基金研究 | 基金专题报告 基金研究 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 04 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 王喆 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110520060005 wangzhe@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：基金研究-新经济龙头 引擎：华商中证 A500 指数增强基金配 置价值深度解析》 2025-07-02 2 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业景 气度在上行？——细分行业景气度跟踪 -20250701》 2025-07-01 3 《金融工程：金融工程-量化择时周 报 ： 突 破 震 荡 上 轨 后 如 何 应 对 ?》 2025-06-29 基金经理海洋所管理的华商量化优质精选基金采用 "量化行业轮动+基本 面验证"框架，通过个股α、产业β及交易保护三维策略获取超额收益。2024 年接管以来年化收益 6.64%，跑赢 50%同类基金。 业绩归因显示基金对电子、汽车、有色金属的超配为基金贡献较高超额收 益，而对非银金融以及家用电器的低配也为组合贡献了一定的行业配置超 额收益。电子、计算机以及通信 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月03日 2025 年上半年，A 股市场一波三折，年初至 1 月中旬受风险情绪压制快速下 跌，4 月初再度因美国所谓"对等关税"砸出市场"黄金坑"，整体呈现探 底修复态势，6 月下旬指数三连阳，6 月 26 日盘中 3462 点创年内新高。上 半年万得全 A、上证指数、沪深 300 分别上涨 5.83%、2.76%、0.03%。 分季度来看，一季度 A 股延续震荡筑底，整体表现弱于一致调查值。1 月受 企业盈利与海外不确定性拖累，资金观望情绪浓厚；2 月中美摩擦升温叠加 国内促消费政策发力，指数小幅反弹；3 月货币政策预期宽松，成长板块阶 段性活跃后转向防御风格。二季度市场重心回归基本面与政策博弈，4 月在 美加税冲击下急跌，政策底显现后快速修复；5 月指数反弹至前期阻力位后 震荡调整；6 月在红利兑现、中报预期升温及地缘风险扰动下，市场震荡中 略有上行，结构分化明显，成长风格占优。 风格：小微盘总体占优，大盘价值展韧性 2025 年上半年整体偏均衡稳定，半年维度看微盘强于小盘，小盘强于中盘和 大盘。上半年小盘成长相较大盘价值的风格切换较为频繁，小盘成长顺风期 与市场上涨期高度 ...

分析师： 蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 | | 宏观主线梳理 | | --- | --- | | 海外宏观 | 美国经济初代防名自边际趋弱,大而美法案将加剧财政示字压力 | | | > 劳动力市场韧性仍存,通胀风险相对可控 | | | ◆ 6月新增非农就业13.9万人持产预期,不过结构性风险显现。5月美国通胀显示关税带来的价格风险相对可控,不过居民可选消费 | | | 需求下降。预计6月开始,关税对价格的冲击可能会有所体现。但程度或低于市场预期。我们预计芳经济数据不出现巨大的变化, | | | 9月之前美联储仍将按兵不动。 | | | > 在美国关税暂缓期7月到期后，美国大概率与多数国家达成部分贸易协议或延期，对少数国家实施关税 | | | ◆ 参议院通过的法案版本带来更高的财政赤字,可能进一步推动国债收益率上行。 | | | ◆ 7月9日关税豁免到期后,美国大概率将对大部分国家延长协议或达成部分贸易协议,可能会对少数国家实施关税。 上半年经济总量韧性较强,政策或处于观察窗期 | ...

Group 1: Monthly Strategy Insights - The report indicates that in July, small-cap stocks are likely to outperform, supported by a monthly quantitative model signal of 0.83, suggesting an overweight position in small-cap stocks [1] - The long-term outlook favors small-cap stocks over the next one to two years, with the current market capitalization factor valuation spread at 1.15, which is lower than historical highs of 1.7 to 2.6 [1] - The report acknowledges a previous misjudgment in June regarding style allocation, where the expected excess return was 0%, and emphasizes a strategy of favoring small-cap stocks unless strong signals for large-cap stocks are present [1] Group 2: Value and Growth Style Rotation - The monthly quantitative model signal for value and growth style rotation is 0.33, indicating a preference for growth stocks in July, which historically tend to outperform during this month [2] - Year-to-date, the value-growth style rotation strategy has achieved an excess return of 6.2% compared to an equal-weight benchmark [2] Group 3: Factor Performance Tracking - Among eight major factors, volatility and value factors showed positive returns this month, while large-cap and liquidity factors exhibited negative returns [2] - Year-to-date, volatility and momentum factors have also shown positive returns, with large-cap and liquidity factors remaining negative [2] - In the analysis of 24 style factors, beta, industry momentum, and short-term reversal factors performed well this month, while large-cap, mid-cap, and liquidity factors did not [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding accounts receivable in the property management industry, particularly in the context of cash flow management and dividend sustainability. It highlights the significant changes in accounts receivable due to recent industry downturns and the need for a balanced development model focusing on scale, quality, and profit [3][4]. Accounts Receivable Analysis - The total accounts receivable for 30 tracked listed property companies increased from 29.18 billion to 75.37 billion from 2020 to 2024, with growth rates of +42.6%, +65.6%, +41.4%, +8.7%, and +1.5% respectively. Notably, from 2023 onwards, the growth rate of accounts receivable is lower than that of operating income, indicating a significant slowdown [3]. - The proportion of accounts receivable from related parties has decreased from 47% to 39% over the past five years, while third-party receivables have increased from 53% to 61%. This trend suggests a gradual reduction in related party risks as the industry stabilizes [4]. - The aging of accounts receivable has worsened, with the proportion of receivables due within one year dropping from 89% in 2019 to 58% in 2024. Consequently, the provision for bad debts has risen sharply from 4% to 26% during the same period, reflecting increased collection difficulties [4]. Investment Recommendations - Companies that demonstrate independent business competitiveness and can effectively reduce related party transactions are deemed favorable. Additionally, firms with strong parent company backgrounds and high rankings in property sales are likely to provide performance support while mitigating related party risks [5]. - Property management companies with natural advantages in merchant payment collection, low long-term arrears, controlled accounts receivable growth, adequate provisions, healthy aging structures, and high collection rates are recommended for investment [5].

资料显示，2025年以来险资举牌次数已达19次，其中9次是银行股，占比近半。这背后是险资对稳定回报型权益资产的迫切需求。 当前银行板块的高股息率非常具有吸引力，叠加监管鼓励险资加大入市力度，资金持续增配银行板块的方向十分明确，这更有助于支撑板块行情持续发展。 今年以来，听的最多的恐怕就是——银行股又创新高了。 这不，经过短暂的回调后，昨天浦发银行、华夏银行、建设银行A、H股又创下了历史新高。这要是2015年买入银行股，到现在都翻倍了！ | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 近期创历史新高次数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [交易日期] 2025-7-2 [近N天内] 114 [复权方式] 后复权 | | | 7 | 600000.SH | 浦发银行 | | 24 | | 2 | 600015.SH | 华夏银行 | | ব | | 3 | 601939.SH | 建设银行 | | 17 | | 4 | 0939.HK | 建设银行 | | 社 | ETF方面，两市唯一的跨AH市场的银行类ETF——银行AH优选ETF(517900)又开启了连涨模式， ...

证券研究报告 2025年7月大类资产配置展望 顺势而为，蓄势待变 证券分析师 ：孙婷 执业证书编号：S0600524120001 联系邮箱：sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 ：唐遥衎 执业证书编号：S0600524120016 联系邮箱：tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月3日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 2025年7月各类资产配置展望 A股和港股——顺势而为，蓄势待变： 美股和黄金——对冲效应或仍将演绎： 国债和美债——稳中有进，震荡偏强： 风险提示：发生预期外重大宏观事件；宏观数据不及预期；市场环境变化时，模型存在失效风险。 2 摘要 市场整体趋势：预计7月A股市场将呈现震荡调整格局，短期内由于动量效应可能持续上涨但后续或进入调整；港股市场整体节奏与A 股保持一致，但A股筹码结构优于港股，且恒生AH溢价指数低位反转，港股吸引力降低，A股表现可能优于港股，呈现宽幅震荡走势。 风格与板块表现：7月上旬成长风格相对占优，红利板块可能相对震荡；7月中下旬，随着动量效应消退与关税政策的不确定性增加， 成长风格可能进入相对逆风期，红利风格有望进一步凸显优势，但需关注海内外事件驱动因素 ...

Group 1 - The "Bank AH + Small Micro Plate" portfolio has achieved a historical high, increasing by 54.97% from last year, with a maximum drawdown of 13.89% [1] - The portfolio's performance has outpaced major indices, with only the CSI 2000 showing a higher growth rate, but with a larger maximum drawdown of 19.65% [1] - The portfolio consists of 40% Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900), 30% 1000 ETF Enhanced (159680), and 30% CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552), employing a "high dividend base + enhanced growth assets" strategy [2][4] Group 2 - The Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) has shown significant growth, increasing by 24% since the beginning of 2025, with a 411% surge in fund shares [4][6] - The low interest rate environment and the decline in 10-year government bonds have created a demand for bank stocks due to their high dividend and strong risk-averse attributes [6] - The dynamic adjustment mechanism of the Bank AH index allows for the identification of undervalued bank stocks, enhancing returns while providing stability [6] Group 3 - The portfolio's structure is designed to provide a safety net with high dividends while pursuing growth through small-cap stocks, which combine index beta and excess alpha [7] - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) has achieved a net value growth rate of 29.18% in the first half of the year, ranking first among similar broad-based ETFs [9] - Since its inception, the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF has accumulated a net value growth of 68.21%, significantly outperforming the CSI 2000 index [10] Group 4 - Two signals support the continuation of the small-cap stock trend: ongoing liquidity support and the release of policy dividends from mergers and acquisitions regulations [11] - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) demonstrates the effectiveness of quantitative discipline in achieving sustained excess returns [12]

7 月资产配置报告：宏观景气度边际改善，相对看好小盘走 势 20250702 摘要 兴业证券改进的股债性价比指标显示，A 股在 2022 年后总体处于低性 价比状态，2024 年开始出现抄底机会。该指标通过调整股票和债券端 的性价比，并考虑信用扩张增速和全球利率水平，提高了预测效果。 兴业证券构建的经济先行指数显示，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，综合先 行指数、实体和金融环境均略有上升，总体呈现相对向好的趋势。股票 择时模型偏乐观，债券估值模型则偏中性。 兴业证券构建了灵活配置和偏固收两类股债轮动组合。灵活配置组合长 期历史收益年化 14%，回撤 14.8%；偏固收组合年化收益 7.8%，回撤 4.4%，均优于固定权重基准组合。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，股票权重 分别为 87.6%和 26%左右。 兴业证券成长价值轮动模型自 2013 年底测算以来，实现了约 25%的年 化收益，高于基准 5%。截至 2025 年 6 月底，该模型给出了偏价值的 信号。大小盘轮动模型显示，今年 7 月小盘风格预计继续占优。 Q&A 截至 2025 年 6 月底，兴业证券金融工程团队对股债性价比指标的分析结果 ...