1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued their strong rebound, with silver showing elasticity. The end of the US government shutdown and market expectations of potential Fed rate cuts have led to a short - term shift to rate - cut trading, making commodities generally stronger. However, whether precious metals can regain their upward momentum remains to be confirmed, and international gold and silver are facing resistance at previous high levels [1] 3. Summary by Related Information Government Shutdown - President Trump signed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the longest government shutdown in US history. The bill provides continuous funding for the federal government until January 30, 2026. Multiple federal departments have notified employees to return to work on the 13th, but it's uncertain when furloughed employees will receive back pay and if normal payroll can resume quickly [1][2] Fed Policy - Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire at the end of his term on February 28 next year, and the market expects the new appointee may open up more room for future rate cuts. Four voting regional Fed presidents are not enthusiastic about another rate cut in December. Boston Fed President Collins believes the Fed will likely keep rates at the current level for some time. White House official Hassett hopes the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points but expects a 25 - basis - point cut. The US Supreme Court will hold an oral argument on Trump's request to fire Fed Governor Cook on January 21 next year [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are both rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued their strong rebound, with silver showing elasticity. The end of the US government shutdown and market expectations of future interest rate cuts have led to a short - term shift to interest - rate cut trading, making commodities generally stronger. However, whether precious metals can regain their upward momentum remains to be confirmed, and international gold and silver should pay attention to the resistance at previous high positions [1] Other Key Points - After Trump signs the temporary appropriation bill, multiple federal departments such as the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of the Interior, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Department of Justice have notified employees to return to work on the 13th. But it's uncertain when furloughed employees will receive back pay and if salary payments can resume quickly [2] - Four voting local Fed presidents are not enthusiastic about another interest rate cut in December. Boston Fed President Collins believes the Fed will likely keep interest rates at the current level for some time, and before cutting rates, it's necessary to ensure inflation can sustainably return to 2% [2] - White House official Hassett hopes the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points but expects only a 25 - basis - point cut, and is willing to accept the position of Fed Chairman if needed [2] - The US Supreme Court will hold an oral argument on Trump's request to fire Fed Governor Cook on January 21 next year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1 Commodities - **Price Changes**: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose by 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum by 1.41% to 21625.00, while some commodities like methanol fell by 3.12% to 2112.00, and iron ore dropped by 4.94% to 760.50 [2]. 2.2 A - shares - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 Index fell by 0.04% to 7327.91 [2]. 2.3 Overseas Stocks - **Index Fluctuations**: The Nasdaq Index dropped by 3.04% to 23004.54, and the Nikkei 225 Index fell by 4.07% to 50276.37 [2]. 2.4 Bonds - **Yield Changes**: The yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2]. 2.5 Foreign Exchange - **Rate Movements**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose by 0.25% to 1.16, while the US dollar index fell by 0.18% to 99.55 [2]. 3. Commodity Views 3.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways movement. Long - term domestic stable - expectation policies, the global AI tech cycle, and the "V - shaped reversal" of US stocks are positive factors, while US economic data and high A - share valuations are negative factors [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways movement. Weak fundamentals and central bank operations are positive, while inflation recovery and government bond issuance are negative [4]. 3.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement. OPEC's production suspension and oil price cost support are positive, while US inventory accumulation and emerging oil fields' production increase are negative [5]. 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Rapeseed Oil**: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement. Low inventory and production issues are positive, while lack of Chinese demand and import increase are negative [5]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement. US government situation and supply concerns are positive, while US manufacturing data and high inventory are negative [6]. 3.5 Chemicals Sector - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement. Inventory decline and low prices are positive, while weak demand and high capacity are negative [6]. 3.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement. Market concerns and geopolitical risks are positive, while trade relations and Fed's stance are negative [7]. 3.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement. Decrease in global shipments and increase in blast furnace operating rate are positive, while port inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand are negative [7].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [3][5] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector has experienced a rapid price decline, with gold and silver prices dropping significantly after two months of strong gains. Key factors include recent US-China trade agreements and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [4][5]. - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains optimistic due to expected monetary policy changes and central bank purchases, with global gold demand projected to reach 4,974 tons in 2024, a 1.5% increase from 2023 [5]. - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks within the precious metals sector, including Zijin Mining International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and others [5]. Price Trends - Over the past two weeks, London spot gold fell by 5.05% to $4,011.50 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold dropped by 7.79% to ¥921.92 per gram. Silver prices also saw declines of 9.50% and 6.60% respectively [9][10]. US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with the target range now at 3.75%-4.00%. There are indications of internal disagreements within the Fed regarding future rate cuts [4][5]. Holdings and Trading Volume - The report notes a decrease in trading volumes for both gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with gold holdings down by 12.54% to 346,200 contracts and silver holdings down by 17.11% to 694,300 contracts [10][41]. Futures Basis Situation - As of the latest report, the international gold basis (spot-futures) is at -$1.90 per ounce, an increase of $41.25 from two weeks prior, while the domestic gold basis is at -0.90 yuan per gram, up by 3.00 yuan [61][62].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since December 2024 [1][3] - The dot plot indicates that Fed officials expect two more rate cuts this year, with a median forecast for the year-end rate at 3.6% [3] - The decision to halt balance sheet reduction is significant, as it signals the end of years of quantitative tightening [5] Group 2 - There is notable internal disagreement within the Fed, with two members voting against the decision, indicating uncertainty in future monetary policy [5] - Historical trends show that when the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle, it significantly impacts global mainstream assets, potentially supporting risk assets like A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks [5][8] - Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks during the press conference surprised the market, emphasizing that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed [5][7] Group 3 - Powell highlighted the challenges in decision-making due to delayed economic data from the government shutdown, which complicates the Fed's assessment [7] - Inflation remains a concern, with core PCE inflation projected at 2.3%-2.4%, close to the Fed's 2% target [7] - The Fed's preventive rate cuts are expected to improve global liquidity, enhancing investor appetite for equity assets, particularly in emerging markets [7] Group 4 - The A-share market is likely to be significantly influenced by the Fed's policy shift, with historical data suggesting strong performance during Fed rate-cutting cycles [8][10] - The A-share market has evolved, with total market capitalization exceeding 118 trillion yuan and a more rational valuation compared to previous years [10] - The growth sector is expected to benefit directly from the Fed's rate cuts, as lower financing costs will support domestic technological innovation [12] Group 5 - Despite the overall positive impact of the Fed's rate cut on risk assets, investors should remain cautious of potential risks, including market volatility due to expectation discrepancies [12] - Domestic fundamentals, such as real estate risk resolution and consumer recovery, are crucial for the sustainability of the A-share market rebound [12] - The Fed's policy may fluctuate, with Powell warning that inflation risks have not been resolved, adding to policy uncertainty [12][13]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen significant price increases, with COMEX gold rising by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% due to recession fears and expectations of renewed tariffs [4] - Copper prices have rebounded by 2.25% on the LME, driven by tariff expectations, despite some pressure from lower downstream demand [5] - Cobalt prices have surged due to supply concerns following the announcement of export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with significant weekly increases in various cobalt compounds [6] - The report indicates that rare earth prices have decreased but are expected to stabilize due to tightened export controls and ongoing demand in sectors like energy-efficient appliances and electric vehicles [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index for the industry is at 7322.8, with a weekly high of 7807.9 and a low of 4280.14 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper increase by 2.25%, aluminum by 1.18%, while zinc, lead, and tin experienced declines [19] - Precious metals saw significant increases, with COMEX gold up by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% [19] Inventory Trends - Global visible copper inventories increased by 16,766 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 6,049 tons [33][35]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of gold ETFs reflects a significant increase in gold prices driven by geopolitical risks and changes in global liquidity expectations, with a notable rise in trading volume and net inflows into gold ETFs [4][5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - As of October 20, 2025, the gold ETF (159937) has decreased by 2.36%, with a latest price of 9.33 yuan, while showing an 11.33% increase over the past week as of October 17 [3]. - The trading volume for the gold ETF reached 12.23 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.14%, and an average daily trading volume of 31.28 billion yuan over the past week, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [4]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in international gold prices is attributed to a combination of geopolitical risk, a weakening global credit system, and changing liquidity expectations, with multiple factors contributing to the current market dynamics [4][5]. - Key pressures on the gold market include a high concentration of long positions and the potential for speculative funds to take profits, which could lead to increased volatility and a possible price correction [4]. Group 3: Institutional Trends - There has been a consistent net inflow into the largest gold ETF, SPDR, and the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months, although its reserves remain lower than the global average of 15%-20% [5]. - The trend of reducing U.S. Treasury holdings while increasing gold investments is observed across both institutional and individual investors [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to factors such as a weakening U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical instability, which are expected to support continued central bank purchases of gold [5]. - The latest share count for the gold ETF reached 4.166 billion, marking a one-year high [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term and medium - term increases and an intraday view of being oscillating strongly. The core logic is the start of interest rate cuts, intensified geopolitical situations, and the continuation of the upward trend in the medium and long term [1][3] - Copper is also expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday increases. The reason is the macro - loose background, renewed disturbances at the mine end, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][5] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, gold prices rose and then fell. New York gold and London gold both fell below the $4000 mark, and Shanghai gold dropped to the 900 - yuan mark. During the National Day holiday, international gold prices rose continuously. New York gold futures and London gold broke through the $4000/ounce psychological barrier, with a holiday increase of over 4% and a year - to - date increase of over 50% [3] - **Core Logic**: The short - term decline is due to the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which cooled geopolitical tensions, and the strong willingness of short - term bulls to close positions after a large previous increase. The strong performance of gold prices is driven by three factors: a surge in hedging demand, expectations of monetary policy, and a structural influx of funds [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Continuously monitor the long - short game of overseas gold prices at $4000, corresponding to the 900 - yuan mark in China [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, copper prices rose and then fell. During the National Day, the LME copper price broke through $10500 and reached $10800, hitting a new high for the year [5] - **Core Logic**: The short - term decline is affected by the fall of precious metals and strong technical pressure at a nearly 5 - year high. The strong rise is caused by three factors: supply shortages, macro and financial attributes, and demand resilience [5] - **Technical Analysis**: Continuously monitor the pressure at the $11000 mark for overseas LME copper and the high in May 2024 for domestic copper [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Gold Market Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the gold market and its current trends, particularly in relation to macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Expectations**: The deterioration of the U.S. ADP employment data has strengthened market expectations for a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, which could further drive up gold prices [1][2][3] 2. **De-dollarization Trend**: The challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve by Trump has accelerated the de-dollarization process, impacting gold's reserve value. The potential firing of Fed Governor Cook could lead to significant increases in gold prices [1][2][4] 3. **Technical Breakthrough**: Gold prices have surpassed $3,500 per ounce, marking a significant technical breakthrough with a 15% increase since then. Although the momentum may weaken, short-term adjustment pressure remains low [1][2][6] 4. **Gold Pricing Model**: The most critical factor in gold pricing is its reserve value rather than its trading or consumption value. Since 2016, gold prices have increasingly reflected the cracks in U.S. dollar credit rather than being tied to the dollar index or U.S. Treasury yields [3][4] 5. **Historical Context**: The current market is compared to historical events, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, suggesting that gold could see significant long-term growth, potentially exceeding tenfold increases over the next decade [6][8] Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Future Events to Monitor**: Key events to watch include the appointment of a compliant Federal Reserve Chair and the Supreme Court's decision regarding Cook's status, as these could further impact the independence of the Fed and, consequently, the credibility of the dollar [4][5] 2. **External Factors**: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and fluctuations in oil prices are highlighted as external factors that could influence gold prices in the short term [5][7] 3. **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to hold significant positions in gold and to be prepared for potential adjustments based on market signals, particularly regarding geopolitical developments and economic recovery indicators [8][9] Conclusion - The current gold market is characterized by a bullish trend driven by interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, and technical factors. Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term holding strategy while remaining vigilant to market changes that could present buying opportunities.

Group 1: US Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates two more times this year, with the next meetings on October and December [11][16][18] - Historical analysis shows that various asset classes have not reacted dramatically to US government shutdowns, indicating a potential for stability in the market [13][18] - Micron Technology (MU US) reported strong demand from data centers, with Q4 FY2025 earnings exceeding expectations, driven by growth in HBM business and a favorable DRAM market [19] - Meta Platforms (META US) unveiled a new AI glasses product line, enhancing its position in the AI and metaverse space, with a target price of $860 [19] Group 2: Singapore Market Focus - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is set to restart easing measures in October, with expectations of a slowdown in GDP growth to 2.2% for the year [24][30] - Keppel Data Centre REIT is expanding in Japan with a recent acquisition worth SGD 707 million, expected to boost its distribution per unit (DPU) [36] - Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP) is focusing on digital infrastructure growth, with potential for significant earnings growth in FY2026 and beyond [36] Group 3: Vietnam Market Focus - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.5% in the first half of 2025, driven by strong domestic consumption and investment, but is expected to slow down due to external trade uncertainties [43][46] - The Vietnamese central bank is likely to maintain a loose monetary policy in the short term, supporting economic growth through increased public investment [46] - Vietnam may be upgraded to FTSE's secondary emerging market status, potentially attracting around $1.1 billion in inflows if the upgrade occurs [49][50]