Group 1: Market Performance - Gold stocks in Hong Kong showed strong performance, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Lingbao Gold rising over 8%, and Shandong Gold increasing over 6% [1] - In the A-share market, Huayu Mining and Sichuan Gold both rose over 6%, while Hunan Gold increased over 5% [2][3] Group 2: Gold Prices - International gold prices rebounded significantly, with spot gold reaching a high of $3,387.09 per ounce, marking the highest level since April 23 [3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also surged, with Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry priced at 1,026 yuan per gram, an increase of 28 yuan from the previous day [5][6] Group 3: Influencing Factors - Key factors influencing gold prices include changes in Trump's tariff policies, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical risks [8] - The market is anticipating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could enhance the attractiveness of gold as an investment [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that gold prices may continue to rise due to persistent geopolitical risks and the potential for further interest rate cuts [9] - The combination of "rate cut trades" and ongoing trade tensions under the "Trump 2.0" scenario is expected to provide strong support for gold prices in the long term [9]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The gold price reached a high of 3500 USD before a short-term adjustment, with recent declines attributed to easing tariffs and geopolitical tensions [4][6] - The report highlights that the U.S. President's comments on the Federal Reserve and the signing of an executive order to alleviate tariffs on imported cars have contributed to market fluctuations [6][7] - The long-term outlook remains bullish for gold, driven by expected interest rate cuts and geopolitical factors, with central bank purchases providing strong support for gold prices [7] Summary by Sections Price Trends - Recent price movements include a 1.69% drop in London spot gold to 3249.70 USD/oz and a 1.36% decline in Shanghai gold to 780.30 CNY/g, while silver prices saw slight increases [11][12] U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and inflation rates, which could impact gold prices [6][7] Holdings and Trading Volume - The report notes a decrease in trading volumes for both gold and silver, with Shanghai gold holdings down 2.45% to 413,600 contracts and Shanghai silver holdings down 5.74% to 851,200 contracts [11][12] Domestic and International Price Differences - The gold price difference between domestic and international markets increased, with the domestic gold price gap rising to 28.43 CNY/g [62] Futures Basis - The international gold basis (spot-futures) increased to 2.30 USD/oz, while the domestic gold basis rose to -0.80 CNY/g [70]

Market Performance - As of April 25, 2025, global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq slightly up and the DAX index in Germany also experiencing a small increase[3] - The U.S. stock indices displayed divergence, reflecting varying investor sentiment amid economic uncertainties[3] Economic Outlook - The ongoing negotiations between the White House and the Federal Reserve have led to a temporary halt in the sell-off of U.S. dollar assets, improving market sentiment[3] - Despite the easing tensions, concerns remain regarding potential economic downturns, with significant layoffs in government-related sectors expected to impact non-farm payroll data[3] Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation expectations are rising, influenced by fluctuating energy and food prices, which could lead to further market volatility[3] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts remains uncertain, with internal disagreements potentially affecting market expectations[3] Investment Strategy - In light of anticipated recessionary pressures, the recommendation is to prioritize U.S. Treasury holdings, particularly favoring short-term bonds while being cautious with equities[3] - The strategy suggests waiting for signs of stabilization in the market before making significant equity investments, particularly in sectors benefiting from interest rate cuts[3] Risks - Key risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could exacerbate market volatility[3][43]