美联储降息引发全球资金大迁徙，黄金意外成为最大赢家。 近日，黄金涨势如虹，在一众投资品中格外吸睛，频频刷新历史新高。北京时间9月23日，现货黄金最 高涨至3791美元/盎司，黄金期货更是最高突破3800美元/盎司，双双续写最佳成绩。 美联储降息背后，往往是经济增长放缓、通胀回落甚至出现衰退风险的信号。这一动作所带来的利率和 汇率的变动，将会同时影响全球资金流动状况，自然也会引发各类资产价格的重新评估。 虽然金价波动加剧背景下，短期节奏或较难把握。中长期来看，美国债务规模庞大，美元信用弱化的担 忧加剧，支撑黄金的储备需求，未来黄金依旧可期。 近两年，"不确定性"成为全球经济的一大关键词。作为一贯被看好的国际硬通货，黄金在金融市场中愈 发显得稀缺，这恰恰印证了世界多极化与经济全球化不可逆转的大趋势。 北京商报评论员 岳品瑜 受贸易摩擦加剧、美国政策反复、地缘政治热点事件层出不穷的影响，各国央行，尤其是新兴市场国家 的储备战略开启"去美元化"，倾向于通过增持黄金来对冲美元体系可能出现的结构性风险。 全球央行过去连续三年净买入黄金超千吨，这是许久未有的强度，且2025年这一趋势仍在延续。 各国央行持续购金之下，黄金在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the United States, despite its massive debt of $30 trillion, remains a dominant global power due to the influence of the US dollar, which allows it to benefit from global wealth accumulation and consumption [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of the Dollar - The US dollar's historical link to gold established its position as the world's leading currency, as it was once directly convertible to gold, making it a trusted medium for international trade [3][5]. - The US capitalized on global conflicts, particularly during the World Wars, to accumulate gold reserves by selling military supplies to warring nations [8]. - In 1971, the US decoupled the dollar from gold, allowing for unlimited dollar printing, which was later supported by a deal with Saudi Arabia to conduct oil transactions exclusively in dollars [13][15]. Group 2: Economic Mechanisms and Impacts - The US's strategy involves printing large amounts of money, which can lead to inflation and devaluation of the dollar, impacting other countries holding dollar reserves [11][20]. - The influx of "hot money" into emerging markets can create temporary economic booms, but when the US capital withdraws, it often leads to economic collapse in those countries [22][24]. - The article describes this dynamic as a form of "financial colonialism," where the economic sovereignty of target countries is compromised by US monetary policy [26]. Group 3: Global Response and "De-dollarization" - Many countries are exploring alternatives to the dollar, with 42 nations researching digital currencies to reduce reliance on the US dollar [28][30]. - Initiatives like the establishment of trade mechanisms using local currencies, such as the euro for trade with Iran, signify a shift away from dollar dominance [32]. - Russia and China are leading efforts in "de-dollarization," with increasing use of their currencies in bilateral trade, particularly in energy transactions [35][37]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While the dollar's dominance remains strong, the article suggests that ongoing efforts towards "de-dollarization" could gradually weaken its position, especially as countries seek to mitigate the impacts of US monetary policy [38][40]. - The potential decline of the dollar's status could lead to significant changes in global economic dynamics, reducing the ability of the US to leverage its currency for global influence [42][44].

根据香港黄金交易所高级行员（简称：香港第一金PPLI平台）现货黄金最新走势，国际现货伦敦金价格又暴涨了，再次刷新了历史新高现报3790美元/盎 司，距离3800美元/盎司大关仅差一步之遥。之前香港第一金市场部负责人陈生就说过黄金看似在山顶，其实只是在半山腰，黄金会涨到你心服口服，这句 话至今还适用。看到这篇文章的读者们，你是不是也觉得最近这个金价涨得太猛了，难道仅仅是因为美联储要降息就能涨这么多吗？现在国际现货黄金已经 来到3800美元/盎司大关，未来的时间里面或者国庆节假期黄金还会不会继续涨，今天，第一金陈生就用一篇文章给大家分析分析。 所以读者们，估计看到这里你们应该跟第一金陈生想法差不多，再这么发展下去，没有了纸质货币的信任度，早晚国际贸易也得回到传统货币金银本位。现 在美元在全球央行储备的份额一直在持续的下降，创下了26年来新低，好多国家也在背地里悄悄的抛售美国国债，现在的实物黄金已经成为全球央行第一大 储备资产了。现在很多国家做生意都优先不考虑美元结算，比如说俄罗斯卖石油给印度，就用卢比和卢布直接换，中国跟俄罗斯买天然气也开始用人民币和 卢布结算。这里告诉大家一个好消息，咱们中国的人民币已经跟全球4 ...

在国际金融的大棋盘上，一场惊心动魄的博弈正在上演。中国与日本，一个在疯狂抛售美债，似在逃离一场即将到来的风暴；一个却紧紧攥着巨额美债，仿 佛在走向一个未知的深渊。这背后究竟隐藏着怎样的秘密？是中国的远见卓识，还是日本的无奈之举？让我们一同揭开这层面纱。 真不是咱危言耸听，此前俄罗斯那3000亿外汇储备的血泪教训还历历在目。俄乌冲突一爆发，欧美直接将其外汇储备锁死，俄罗斯连一分钱都动不了，这简 直比抢劫还狠！更离谱的是，那些美债产生的利息，居然被偷偷转去给乌克兰当军费了，这操作简直绝了！ 这事儿一曝光，全世界都瞬间清醒：美元资产哪是什么"保险柜"，分明就是美国精心布置的陷阱！这谁还敢放心把钱存里面啊。 中国能不着急吗？以前咱们买石油、跟其他国家做生意，都得先把钱换成美元，这就等于在中间多了一道"美国关卡"。这可都是咱们几十年辛辛苦苦攒下的 家底啊，哪能眼睁睁看着被美国拿捏得死死的？ 看看中国这几年的动作，那叫一个果断！一边疯狂抛美债，一边黄金储备蹭蹭往上涨，现在手里都攥着近2400吨黄金了，比很多发达国家都多。黄金这东 西，不管在哪个国家、哪个年代，那价值都是杠杠的，比天天疯狂印钱的美元靠谱多了。 还有啊，中国 ...

持有美国国债是中国外汇储备的一部分，最新数据到5月显示约7563亿美元，比上月减少9亿美元，已经连续三个月减持。从年初的7800亿美元左右逐步调 整，这反映出中国外汇管理策略的灵活性。 相比2011年的峰值1.32万亿美元，现在的持有量下降了42.7%，占美国国债市场的比例仅2.6%。这种减持不是突发行为，而是基于全球经济变化的主动选 择。 美国经济在2025年上半年显示出一些疲态，一季度经济增长率只有1.6%，远没有达到预期的2.5%。通胀指标核心个人消费支出价格指数停留在2.8%，高于 美联储设定的2%目标。 失业率攀升到4.2%，非农就业数据多次低于市场预期。美联储保持联邦基金利率在4.25%至4.5%的区间，7月会议后依然没有调整。 这些迹象表明，美国正面临供应链问题和贸易摩擦的影响，政策空间在缩小。 中国作为全球贸易大国，在这种环境下保持了稳定的外汇储备规模，截至7月末约为3.29万亿美元，这得益于出口强劲和制造业优势。 美联储的政策从2022年的加息周期到现在的观望，原本旨在控制通胀，但高利率已抑制投资，导致制造业指数跌至48以下的收缩区。相比2023年的基础设施 刺激，现在美国面临关税壁垒加剧， ...

FICC日报 | 2025-09-24 美联储降息路径分歧加剧 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。国内8月经济压力边际增加，一是中国8月经济数据有所转弱，显现"工业缓、投资弱、消费淡" 等特征；另一方面是外部关税压力有所增加，墨西哥拟对贸易伙伴加征关税，据英国《金融时报》和路透社披露， 特朗普鼓动欧盟对中国和印度加征"二级关税"；为了应对边际增加的外部压力，国内近期频提稳增长政策。9月10 日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力""推 进重点行业产能治理"。关注后续更具体的政策内容。中美双方在西班牙马德里举行经贸会谈，就以合作方式妥善 解决TikTok问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。9月19日晚，中美元首通电话，就当 前中美关系和共同关心的问题坦诚深入交换意见，就下阶段中美关系稳定发展作出战略指引。国务院召开新闻发 布会，介绍"十四五"时期金融业的发展情况，此次会议不涉及短期政策调整，关于"十五五"以及下一步金融改革内 容，将在中央统一部署后做进一步沟通。央行表示，当前中国货币政策立场是支持性的，实施适度宽松的货币政 策；证监 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating bullish [2] - Rebar and coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillating [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: Bullish [4] - Silver: Bullish [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillating [5] - Pulp: Bottom - range consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearish [5] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearish [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating bullish [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: On - the - sidelines [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: On - the - sidelines [11] - PR: On - the - sidelines [11] - PF: On - the - sidelines [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as scheduled. After the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different industries have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Market sentiment is affected by various factors such as policies, international relations, and economic data. It is recommended to control risk appetite and maintain the current position for stock index long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas supply has slightly declined, but the global shipping volume is still at a high level in recent years. The arrival volume at 47 ports has increased. The daily average pig iron output has rebounded, driving up demand. Steel mills' profit ratio has declined, but the motivation for active production cuts is still insufficient. The iron ore 2601 contract is adjusting at a high level [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The suspension news from coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti - involution" have pushed up the double - coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the "Golden September and Silver October" season has boosted demand. Some coke enterprises have initiated the first price increase [2]. - **Rebar and coil**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine suspension news have affected the market. The output of finished products has slightly decreased, but the supply remains high. The apparent demand for five major steel products has slightly increased, but the inventory pressure continues to rise. The real estate investment continues to decline, and the overall demand is weak. The cost increase has driven up the price of finished products, and the rebar 2601 contract is oscillating bullishly in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: The supply is stable, and the demand has limited growth. The downstream deep - processing factory orders have slightly improved. The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may affect the production cost. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold - repair path [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. There was capital inflow in the banking and precious metals sectors and outflow in the catering, tourism, and education sectors. The market is oscillating, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and maintain the current long - position for stock indexes [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased by 1bp. The market is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. The US debt problem, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks affect the price. The Fed's interest rate cut and geopolitical risks support the bullish trend of gold and silver [4]. Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume at ports has decreased. The arrival volume from New Zealand has declined, and the cost support has weakened. The spot price is stable, and the futures delivery willingness has increased. It is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable. The cost support has strengthened, but the demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. - **Double - gum paper**: The production is relatively stable, but it is in the downstream seasonal off - season. The industry has over - capacity, and it should be treated bearishly [5]. Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the inventory has risen. The export is weak. The US bio - fuel policy is controversial. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean oil has increased. It is expected to oscillate bearishly [5][6]. - **Meals**: The yield of US soybeans has been adjusted, and the export demand is weak. The domestic supply pressure is significant, and the inventory of soybean meal is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate bearishly [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs may continue to rise slightly. The supply is abundant, the demand from the terminal market is weak, and the slaughter price has declined. The slaughter rate is expected to decline and then stabilize. The price is expected to oscillate bullishly in the short term [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the cost in Hainan has decreased. The demand from tire enterprises has increased, and the inventory has declined. The price is expected to oscillate widely [11]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX has potential supply risks; PTA's supply and demand have both increased, but the marginal supply - demand has weakened; MEG's supply pressure has increased; PR and PF are affected by geopolitical and cost factors. The market trends are complex, and some are recommended to be observed on the sidelines [11].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to rise, reaching new highs after a brief pullback following the recent Federal Reserve rate cut, supported by factors such as a weakening U.S. economy, global de-dollarization trends, and geopolitical risk premiums [1][6]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September FOMC meeting, with a vote of 11 in favor and 1 against [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments were hawkish, acknowledging a cooling labor market while emphasizing that the rate cut was a risk management decision [3]. Economic Indicators - The Leading Economic Index for August fell by 0.5% to 98.4, marking the largest decline since April and indicating a continued slowdown in economic activity [6]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts appear to be higher than the Fed's projections, with current rate futures implying rates about 0.5% lower than the Fed's dot plot median for the end of next year [3]. De-dollarization Trends - Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have been increasing gold reserves, with China adding gold for the tenth consecutive month as of August [6]. Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the lack of progress in U.S. mediation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating violence in Gaza, contribute to the risk premium in gold prices [6]. Investment Opportunities - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains strong, and investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in gold ETFs and gold stock ETFs during market pullbacks [7].

2025年09月24日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：贵金属价格继续走高，纽约金突破 3800 美元/盎司，市场资金继续做多。 | | 金 | 基本面：美联储主席鲍威尔公开讲话称美股估值相当高，重申面临通胀上升与就业下滑的双重挑战，未明确 | | 属 | 表态 10 月是否降息；美联储官员对于降息依旧存在分歧，联储执委鲍曼警告已"落后于形势"，地区联储主 | | | 席古尔斯比呼吁谨慎行事；美国 9 月 Markit 制造业 PMI 初值 52，连续第二个月扩张，预期 52.2，8 月前值 | | | 53，去年同期为 47.3。其中，就业指数从 8 月的 53.1 降至 52.6；新订单指数环比下降。美国 9 月 Markit 服 | | | 务业 PMI 初值 53.9，为 2025 年 6 月以来的最低值，预期 54，8 月前值 54.5，去年同期为 55.2。其中，就业 | | | 指数从 8 月份的 52 降至 51.6，为 2025 年 4 月以来的最低值；物价指数较上月下降，为 2025 年 4 月以来的 | ...

本文内容均引用权威资料结合个人观点进行撰写，文末已标注文献来源，请知悉。 前言 中美"关税摩擦"刚进入平静期，美企就发现不对劲了。 国债数据公布，中国四个月中国连抛3820亿，持有规模达到新低。 与此同时，巴菲特也全盘抛售比亚迪股票，中美贸易市场真可谓是山雨欲来。 9月中旬美国财政部按例该公布7月份美债流动数据了，其实在这次数据公布之前，美金融界对此还是非 常乐观的。 因为从3月份到5月份，中国对持有的美债"三连抛"，明显受到贸易战的影响。 到中美谈判之后的6月份，中国持有美债罕见出现增持。 虽然只有1亿美元，但已经给美国财政分析人士看到了"回暖"的趋势。 甚至在特朗普对中国征收145%关税的4月份，中方都只减持了82亿美元。 在这波减持之后，中国今年4个月已经累计减持573亿美元的美债，合人民币3820元，手中持有的美债已 经创下了新低。 对比来看，其他两大债主英国和和日本都选择增持，更能看出中国的动作"不一般"。 这个时候中国为什么"动真格"，采取如此大的抛售力度？ 首先看全球大趋势，以及抛开"政治原因"买美债的国家，全球国家在7月份仍然在加速"去美元化"的趋 势，争相购买黄金囤货和规避风险。 因为特朗普 ...