Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the natural rubber industry [1][4][6] 2. Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong spot prices, decreasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is -820, which is bearish. The inventory shows a mixed trend, the market is below the 20 - day line, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, and the expectation is to buy on dips [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) rose on September 24th, and the US dollar quote in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is available. The spot price is resistant to decline [8][6] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has recently decreased, and the Qingdao area inventory has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The inventory in Qingdao area has changed slightly recently [14][17][4] - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is high, with seasonal rebounds in automobile production and sales and a record high in tire production. Tire industry exports are also rebounding [23][26][29] 3.3 Basis - The basis strengthened on September 24th, with the spot price at 14800 and the basis at - 820, which is bearish [4][35] 3.4 Multi - empty Factors - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

黄金越是上涨，越是果断做空的人，收获才会越大，9月剩下的交易日，我会坚持去反弹做空，暴跌往 往在不经意间出现。首先，你心里要有这个预期，才好去逐步完成布局。 黄金实时行情分析：昨日黄金价格触及3791转跌，周三早盘低点来到3750一线，涨跌幅度都挺大的，时 间慢慢临近月末，我个人还是偏向空头洗盘行情出现，这次的回撤将高点3791当作阶段性顶部，今日价 格只要没能突破新高就大胆做空。向上的偏差阻力节点参考3800-3810范围即可，本周交易时间进入下 半周，本周初连续两天上涨，那么下半周看跌对待。 技术面来看，1小时周期很有意思，布林带上轨承压3791，下轨支撑3750，趋势线压力点位于3782一 线，这是常规的震荡范围，如若向下破位3750则有望考验1小时平行通道下轨3705，若金价向上破位 3791则有望考验1小时通道上轨3810压制点。对于行情没有人能做好一次不错，但昨夜的回撤已经让4小 时周期SAR指标出现在顶部向下发散，于我个人而言，我会选择反弹做空。 3、高位3799挂空，3810挂空，3820挂空，止损3830，目标3750-3700-3650+ 原油实时行情分析：原油价格开始走预期上涨，本周初连 ...

Group 1: Glass Market - The glass market experienced a significant price increase driven by rumors of industry meetings advocating for price hikes and reducing competition, with prices rising by over 100 yuan per ton in some regions [3] - A technical analysis indicated a bullish trend with a support level at 1180, suggesting potential for further price increases despite a short-term adjustment [3] Group 2: Rebar Market - The rebar market is influenced by ongoing capacity control and environmental policies, with government initiatives aimed at stabilizing growth in the steel industry, which positively affects market sentiment [4] - A technical analysis suggests a trading range with resistance at 3180 and support at 3145, recommending a buying strategy on dips [5] Group 3: Coking Coal Market - The coking coal sector has seen significant effects from anti-competition policies, with production cuts in major regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, aimed at stabilizing prices and improving steel mill profits [7] - A technical outlook indicates a bullish sentiment with a support level at 1190 and a potential breakout above 1225 [7] Group 4: Soybean Meal Market - The soybean meal market is facing weak demand due to losses in pig farming, leading to reduced purchasing by feed companies, and seasonal stocking demands falling short of expectations [9] - A technical analysis shows a bearish trend with a support level at 2880 and a resistance level at 3190, suggesting a strategy of shorting on rebounds [9] Group 5: General Futures Investment - Successful futures investment requires continuous learning and in-depth market research to make informed decisions and enhance profitability [11]

Core Insights - The article promotes the Sina Finance APP as an essential tool for futures trading, highlighting its fast market updates, intelligent analysis features, smooth trading experience, and strong community engagement [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Market Updates - The Sina Finance APP offers real-time market updates with a refresh speed of 0.03 seconds, covering over 40 global markets, ensuring users do not miss significant price changes [1] - The app remains stable during high market volatility, providing reliable trading conditions [1] Group 2: Intelligent Analysis - The "Xina AI Assistant" feature simplifies complex futures reports into easy-to-understand summaries, highlighting risk and opportunity points with color coding [2] - This feature is designed to assist novice investors in quickly identifying investment directions and understanding market conditions [2] Group 3: Trading Experience - The app supports a distributed trading gateway capable of handling 120,000 concurrent transactions per second, ensuring that trading orders are executed instantly without delays [3] - This fluid trading experience is positioned as a significant advantage for investors navigating the futures market [3] Group 4: Community Engagement - The community feature of the Sina Finance APP allows users to interact with other investors, share experiences, and access real-time analyses from professional analysts [4] - This social aspect is emphasized as a way to discover new investment opportunities through collaboration [4] Group 5: Overall Summary - The Sina Finance APP is presented as a comprehensive tool for futures trading, catering to both beginners and experienced investors with its fast updates, intelligent analysis, smooth trading, and community features [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to a volatile state. With the approaching holiday, the activity of the capital market decreased, and there will be a style switch and partial withdrawal in the short - term [3]. - There is no strong incremental negative news, and the 10 - year Treasury yield may reach a high in the range of 1.8 - 1.83%. Without strong positive news, the short - term downward space of the interest rate is limited, and there may be resistance around 1.75% [3]. - Gold maintains a high - level shock, and its volatility may rise again. However, with the approaching end of the month, the expiration of derivative contracts brings greater volatility risks [3]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black industry, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate. The decline in iron ore shipments, the recovery of hot metal production, and restocking demand support the strong operation of iron ore prices [3]. - The supply of crude oil shows marginal increase concerns, and the future trend needs to pay attention to the evolution of geopolitical issues [3]. - The high supply pressure of urea continues, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs to be concerned [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: As the long holiday approaches, the capital market becomes less active. There will be a style switch in the short - term, with blue - chip indexes remaining firm. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 with an exercise price near 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The open - market operation turns to net withdrawal, weakening the bond market sentiment. The Treasury bond futures generally decline. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy, and try to go long with a light position when the market sentiment stabilizes at the low level, but pay attention to taking profits in time. For the basis - trading strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and investors can participate in the basis narrowing strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold maintains a high - level shock, and its volatility may rise again. It is recommended to buy on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by emergencies, but the sentiment fades quickly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price fluctuates above $41 [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC market is highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel exports support the valuation of the black industry, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to try short - term long positions on pullbacks and narrow the spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures contracts for January [3]. - **Iron Ore**: With the decline in shipments, the recovery of hot metal production, and restocking demand, iron ore prices are supported to run strongly. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in the production area is stable with a slight upward trend. Supported by the downstream restocking demand, the futures market has an upward expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and go long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. - **Coke**: After the second round of price cuts for coke is implemented, some coke enterprises start to raise prices, and the futures market has a rebound expectation in advance. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and go long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The market fluctuates and consolidates, and spot transactions are good below 80,000 yuan. The main contract is expected to trade between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The price breaks below 2900 yuan, and the downward space is limited due to cost support. The main contract is expected to trade between 2850 - 3150 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price drops, and trading volume picks up slightly. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory. The main contract is expected to trade between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday restocking demand provides short - term support for the spot price. The main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 20,600 yuan [3]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory decreases during the peak season. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction. The main contract is expected to trade between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [3]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore remains at a low level in August, and the fundamentals provide support. The operating range is expected to be between 265,000 - 285,000 yuan [3]. - **Nickel**: The market maintains a weak shock, and the fundamentals change little. The main contract is expected to trade between 119,000 - 124,000 yuan [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market maintains a narrow - range shock. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking situation of downstream enterprises. The main contract is expected to trade between 12,800 - 13,200 yuan [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the marginal increase in supply have eased. The future trend needs to pay attention to geopolitical issues. It is recommended to operate in a band for the unilateral strategy, with the WTI operating range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. Wait for opportunities to widen the spread on the option side [3]. - **Urea**: The high - supply pressure continues. Attention should be paid to the order - taking progress of urea factories before the National Day. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy, with a short - term support level at 1610 - 1630 yuan/ton. On the option side, after the implied volatility rises, it is recommended to narrow the spread at high levels [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is positive, but the cost side is strong. PX may be supported in the short - term. It is recommended to go long on the PX11 contract in the short - term or wait for a rebound to go short [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation improves, but it is still weak in the medium - term, with limited driving force. It is recommended to go long on TA in the short - term or wait for a rebound to go short. Treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling reverse spread [3]. - **Short - fiber**: There is no obvious driving force in the short - term, and it follows the raw material price fluctuations. The trading strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1100 yuan, with limited upward and downward driving forces [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The demand for bottle chips improves periodically, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the upward space of the processing margin is limited. The trading strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin on the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol**: The expectation of new device commissioning and the weak terminal market put pressure on MEG. It is recommended to sell call options on EG2601 - C - 4400 at high levels and use the EG1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: As the long holiday approaches, middle - stream enterprises adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and the market drops significantly. Hold short positions [3]. - **PVC**: The enthusiasm for spot procurement is average, and the market weakens. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation weakens, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 will follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices in the short - term [3]. - **Styrene**: The oil price is expected to be weak, putting pressure on the absolute price of styrene. It is recommended to go short on the absolute price rebound of EB10 and widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost and supply - demand driving forces of BR are limited, and it may follow the fluctuations of natural rubber and commodities. Pay attention to the support around 11,400 yuan for BR2511 [3]. - **LLDPE**: The basis strengthens, and the trading volume is fair. The upward and downward space is limited. Wait and see near the previous low [3]. - **PP**: The number of maintenance increases, and the trading volume improves. In the short - term, the high - maintenance situation continues, supply decreases, demand increases, and inventory decreases. Wait and see in the short - term [3]. - **Methanol**: The inventory at the port continues to accumulate, and the price is weak. The downward space is currently limited. Wait and see [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: Argentina cancels the export tax, putting pressure on the two - meal market again. It will have a short - term weak adjustment [3]. - **Live Pig**: The slaughter pressure is large, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the National Day. Exit the reverse spread strategy and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: Under the bearish expectation, the market fluctuates weakly [3]. - **Oil**: Argentina cancels the grain export tax, causing the market to plunge. Pay attention to the support at 9000 yuan for the main contract of P in the short - term [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad. Exit short positions and take profits [3]. - **Cotton**: New cotton is gradually coming onto the market, increasing the supply pressure. Go short in the short - term [3]. - **Egg**: The domestic sales in some local markets still support the demand to a certain extent, but the long - term trend is bearish. Control the position of short positions [3]. - **Apple**: Early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is fair. The main contract is expected to trade around 8300 yuan [3]. - **Jujube**: The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the futures market fluctuates. It is bearish in the medium - and long - term [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus situation is difficult to reverse, and the market of soda ash weakens. Hold short positions [3]. Special Commodities Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales weaken, and the market drops. Wait and see [3]. - **Rubber**: Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price fluctuates strongly in the short - term. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment weakens, and the price of industrial silicon drops. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: Suppressed by fundamental sentiment, the price of polysilicon drops significantly. Wait and see for the time being [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The driving force weakens, and the market fluctuates mainly. The fundamental situation is in a tight balance during the peak season. The main contract is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [3].

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The market for silicon iron and manganese silicon is characterized by capital - sentiment games and wide - range fluctuations [1]. Detailed Summaries Macro and Industry News - On September 23, the price range of 72 silicon iron was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton in Ningxia, etc.; 75 silicon iron prices increased, with a 20 - dollar/ton increase in FOB price for 75. Silicon manganese 6517 had different price changes in the north and south. The northern price was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton (-50), and the southern price was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (+50) [1]. - Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou set the silicon iron purchase price at 5850 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton lower than the previous round, with a quantity of 600 tons [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is also 0 [1]. Fundamental Data - For silicon iron futures contracts: the closing price of SiFe2511 was 5698 with a change of 5 compared to the previous trading day, and the volume was 244,716 with a position of 187,402; for SiFe2601, the closing price was 5666 with a change of 2, volume of 67,451, and position of 101,301 [2]. - For manganese silicon futures contracts: the closing price of MnSi2511 was 5864 with a change of 14 compared to the previous trading day, and the volume was 89,016 with a position of 93,273; for MnSi2601, the closing price was 5882 with a change of 12, volume of 246,470, and position of 335,174 [2]. - The spot - futures price differences, near - far month price differences, and cross - variety price differences for silicon iron and manganese silicon are also provided in the report [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead**: In August 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate increased. The supply of lead is expected to be tightened in the short - term, with the production of primary lead fluctuating slightly and the production of recycled lead decreasing. Demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious. Short - term lead prices are expected to remain high, but the upside space may be limited [1]. - **Zinc**: In August 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrate decreased slightly compared to July but increased year - on - year. The supply of zinc is increasing, and demand has slightly improved but may be affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the back structure of LME 0 - 3 provide strong support for zinc prices. The short - term downside space of Shanghai zinc may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,975 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 17,085 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 100.07% to 48,758 lots, and the open interest increased by 133.09% to 63,941 lots. The LME inventory was 219,975 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6.19% to 41,610 tons [1]. - **Import and Export**: In August 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was 134,800 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.23% and a year - on - year increase of 15.22%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 reached 927,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 28.18%. The export volume of lead - acid batteries in August was 18.1577 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 14.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.14%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was 152 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 7.93% [1]. - **Fundamentals and Outlook**: The supply of lead concentrate is not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. The production of primary lead fluctuates slightly, and the production of recycled lead decreases. Demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious. Short - term lead prices are expected to remain high, but the upside space may be limited [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,810 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 21,845 yuan/ton, down 1.11%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 10.81% to 125,331 lots, and the open interest increased by 7.63% to 140,372 lots. The LME inventory was 45,775 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2.83% to 56,613 tons [1]. - **Import and Project News**: In August 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 467,300 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 30.06%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 3.5027 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.06%. The Baijiuchang Mine of Shandong Zhaojin Group and Mengzi Mining Company resumed production, with an expected output of 250,000 - 300,000 tons in the second half of the year and an increase in comprehensive output value of 25% [1]. - **Fundamentals and Outlook**: The raw material inventory of zinc smelters is sufficient, and processing fees are rising. The supply of zinc is increasing, and demand has slightly improved but may be affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the back structure of LME 0 - 3 provide strong support for zinc prices. The short - term downside space of Shanghai zinc may be limited [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Lead**: Temporarily hold off on trading [1]. - **Zinc**: Try to go long at low prices with a light position [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report covers multiple commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. All are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations or repeated oscillations, with trend intensities all at 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][4][7][11][15][17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures closed at 802.5 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (-0.74%). The position decreased by 15,454 hands. Spot prices of various types of iron ore remained unchanged. The basis increased by 6 yuan [4]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: RB2601 futures closed at 3,155 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan (-1.00%); HC2601 closed at 3,340 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (-1.33%). Rebar position increased by 20,270 hands, while hot - rolled coil decreased by 15,676 hands. Spot prices generally declined [7]. - **News**: In the September 18 steel weekly data, rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 1.35 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 4.67 tons. In August 2025, national crude steel production was 7737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed small changes. The basis and spread also had corresponding fluctuations [11]. - **News**: On September 23, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions changed, and the prices of 6517 silicomanganese in the north and south also changed. Zhongtian Iron and Steel's ferrosilicon purchase price dropped by 50 yuan/ton [11]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: JM2601 futures closed at 1217.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 closed at 1717.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes, and the basis and spread also fluctuated [15]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [15]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The prices and trading volumes of different log contracts showed different degrees of change, and the spot prices of various types of logs were mostly stable [18]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - Today, SC closed with a downward break, leading to an accelerated decline in the energy and chemical sector. Whether the downside space for crude oil can be opened depends on the synchronous confirmation from external markets. Short positions on the fundamental side of the energy and chemical sector entered the market based on technical signals in early and mid - August, and after nearly two months, most varieties have achieved significant profit margins. - Near the National Day holiday, it is subjectively recommended that those who hold existing short positions do not necessarily need to liquidate all positions but should gradually reduce their positions and only keep a partial position for the holiday. If WTI breaks through the strong support level of $60 during the National Day holiday, there will be significant short - term downside acceleration space. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalog (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: At the time of further production increases by OPEC+ and the seasonal weakening of US demand, the likelihood of a supply - demand surplus in crude oil in the second half of the year remains high. The strategy is to not over - emphasize short - term bullish disturbances and to maintain a bearish view based on the medium - term surplus fundamentals. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of crude oil shows a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a gap - down opening, and a long - negative candlestick. The daily K - line closed at a new low and broke through the support level, and the hourly closing was close to the previous low. After the external market confirms the break, the market may accelerate. The short - term resistance above is at the 479 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level. [3] (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Although there are device overhauls affecting the supply - side operating rate, the weekly production of styrene can still maintain a high level year - on - year due to the high profits of integrated devices. The demand has increased month - on - month with the arrival of the peak season for downstream industries, but under the pressure of imports, the styrene inventory has continued to reach new historical highs. The high - profit, high - production, and high - inventory pattern of styrene is difficult to change, and the pressure from the concentrated commissioning of new devices from September to October remains. The supply pressure will continue, and with the downstream inventory also at a historical high, the fundamental driving force for styrene remains downward. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a long - negative candlestick, and a new low. Whether the decline can accelerate depends on crude oil. The short - term resistance above is tentatively set at the 6935 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level. [5][8] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The prices of overseas raw materials have declined, weakening the cost support. The domestic inventory is depleting slowly and remains at a high level year - on - year, exerting pressure. With the decline of crude oil, there is also pressure from the substitution effect of synthetic rubber. On the demand side, the operating rate of semi - steel tires has dropped significantly, but the operating rate of all - steel tires remains high. The current fundamentals are neutral, with no major contradictions. Short - term attention should be paid to whether there are typhoon disturbances, and currently, the path of Typhoon Hikaa does not pass through Hainan, so the impact may be limited. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of rubber shows a sideways trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was a decrease in positions and a decline. The short - term resistance above is at the 16000 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level. [10][12] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: There are no major contradictions in the supply - demand fundamentals of synthetic rubber itself. The operating rate has recovered with the resumption of previously overhauled devices, and the high operating rate of downstream semi - steel tires under inventory pressure has been maintained. The main focus is on the cost side of butadiene. Recently, with the concentrated arrival of ship cargoes, the port inventory has increased significantly, ending the previously tight inventory pattern. In the medium term, as the production capacity of butadiene is put into operation, the supply pressure will gradually materialize. The most upstream crude oil is also preparing to materialize the surplus pressure as the demand side switches from the peak season to the off - season and OPEC+ continues to increase production. The fundamental logic for synthetic rubber is bearish on the cost side. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of synthetic rubber shows a sideways/downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was a decrease in positions and a small decline. There may be position - reducing actions before the holiday, but the large - scale increase in positions since the end of August still remains. The short - term resistance above is at the 11730 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at the 11730 level. [14][16] (5) PX - **Logic**: The profit of PX is favorable, and the operating rate remains high. There are more unplanned overhauls of downstream PTA, so the short - term supply - demand of PX has weakened, but the contradiction is not prominent. It is more driven by the cost side of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is in a downward trend. Today, it followed crude oil to break through the previous low. The short - term resistance above is tentatively set at the 6655 level. - **Strategy**: According to the plan in Friday's evening report, there was an opportunity to enter the market at 15 - minute intervals after the end of the rebound yesterday morning. Hold short positions and lower the stop - profit to the 6570 level. [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: The cost - side of crude oil is expected to have a supply - increase and demand - decrease surplus pressure in the fourth quarter, which will drive down the cost. PTA itself also has an expectation of supply - demand weakening and inventory accumulation. On the demand side, the peak season was not prosperous in the early stage, and the load recovery of downstream industries was limited. As it enters the off - season from September to November, the demand will continue to decline. On the supply side, after the commissioning of large - scale devices in the middle of the year, although the processing fee has declined, the output is still at a high level year - on - year. In the future, there will be significant inventory accumulation pressure under high supply and weak demand. Along with the downward drive from the cost side of crude oil, the fundamentals of PTA are still relatively pessimistic. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA shows a sideways trend. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low, continuing the downward path. The short - term resistance above is at the 4620 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at the 4620 level. The 4570 level at 15 - minute intervals can be used as a partial stop - profit reference. [22][24] (7) PP - **Logic**: The demand has improved month - on - month during the peak season, but the improvement is limited. On the supply side, the second line of Ningbo Daxie has been put into operation at the end of August, and the first line has also been commissioned. The supply pressure has further increased with the increase in production capacity. The short - term supply pressure still exists, but after the high - level decline in the futures price, one should be cautious about shorting. In addition, attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic due to the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in a downward trend. Today, there was a small decline during the day, and the closing price reached a new low. The short - term resistance is at the 7000 level. - **Strategy**: After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so stay on the sidelines. [25][27] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The pattern of weak current situation and strong future expectation continues. The domestic production decreased last week but is still at a high level year - on - year. In addition, after the resumption of production in Iran in August, a large number of ship cargoes have recently arrived at ports, leading to a significant increase in imports. After the overhaul of downstream olefins is completed, the comprehensive operating rate has declined, but the port inventory has continued to increase slightly and is at the highest level in the same period in history. The huge inventory continues to exert pressure on the futures price. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve with the commissioning of new downstream devices and the seasonal gas restrictions in Iran, and there is a reversal logic. However, currently, the 01 contract has a premium of 100 yuan (nearly 5%) over the spot price, reaching the highest level in the past five years. The futures price has already partially reflected the expectation of future supply - demand improvement, and the current valuation of the 01 contract is not low, lacking the value of bottom - fishing on the left side. One should wait to go long, at least until seeing a decline in Iranian shipments and an improvement in downstream demand. Currently, the decline since August has not ended under the pressure of the huge inventory and the pressure on MTO demand due to the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term and short - term structures of methanol are in a downward trend. Today, it fluctuated during the day, but the hourly closing price reached a new low. The short - term resistance above has been lowered to the 2375 level. - **Strategy**: Since a partial stop - profit was taken earlier, cautiously hold the remaining short positions, and use the 2375 level on the hourly line as the final stop - profit level. [29][31] (9) PVC - **Logic**: The supply pressure continues to increase with the commissioning of new production capacity. The real estate demand has not bottomed out, and India has announced the final anti - dumping ruling on PVC, significantly increasing the tax on Chinese products, which has affected both domestic and export demand. The inventory has continued to accumulate and reached the highest level in the same period in history. The pressure of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory persists. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PVC are in a downward trend. Today, after breaking through the support level, the short - term structure returned to the downward trend. The short - term resistance above is at the 4980 level (relatively far), and the 15 - minute resistance is at the 4930 level. - **Strategy**: After taking profit last week, stay on the sidelines. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds that fail to break through the resistance at 15 - minute intervals. [33] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The weekly operating rates of MEG and its downstream industries have not changed significantly month - on - month, but the port inventory of ethylene glycol has continued to decline slightly. The short - term situation is relatively strong, and there are no major supply - demand contradictions. However, attention should be paid to the supply pressure from the expected commissioning of new devices in the future and the driving force from the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of ethylene glycol shows a sideways/downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a decline, and a new low. The short - term resistance has been lowered to the 4275 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at the 4275 level. [35] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The weekly operating rate of PE has increased. In August, the second line of 450,000 tons of new production capacity in Ningbo Daxie has been put into production, and the remaining 450,000 tons are planned to start operation in mid - September. The supply pressure continues to increase with the commissioning of new production capacity. The downstream demand has increased month - on - month during the peak season, but the increase is limited, and the performance during the peak season is lower than expected. The supply - demand situation is bearish, but the decline in the futures price in September has already reflected this to some extent. Attention should be paid to the cost - driving force from the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of plastic shows a sideways/downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low. The short - term resistance above has been lowered to the 7205 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level. The 7140 level at 15 - minute intervals can be used as a partial stop - profit level. [39] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The weekly supply of soda ash has increased from a high level, and the supply side remains loose. The pattern of high production and high inventory has not improved. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level structure of soda ash shows a sideways trend. Today, there was an increase in positions and a decline. The short - term resistance above is at the 1321 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, and use the 15 - minute resistance as a reference. [41] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply of liquid chlorine on the supply side remains loose. On the demand side, alumina enterprises generally maintain a high - operating - rate pattern under profitable conditions, and the demand in the non - aluminum sector has increased limitedly during the peak season. The weekly inventory of caustic soda has increased again, and the pressure of the high - level inventory year - on - year continues to be reflected. The short - term fundamentals have weakened again compared with last week. In the medium term, attention should continue to be paid to the improvement in demand during device overhauls and the downstream peak season. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of caustic soda is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a long - negative candlestick, and a new short - term low. It is difficult to find the short - term resistance, and tentatively, the 15 - minute small - cycle resistance is at the 2575 level. - **Strategy**: After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so stay on the sidelines. [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina main contract is oscillating weakly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is sufficient with a slight increase, while demand growth is less than supply growth. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract is oscillating weakly, with decreasing open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. - The cast aluminum main contract is oscillating weakly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply is restricted by raw materials, demand has a slight recovery but consumption is still weak, and inventory is slightly accumulating. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,685.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,877.00 yuan/ton, down 57.00 yuan [2]. - The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 10.00 yuan/ton, the open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 225,448.00 lots; the main - second - consecutive contract spread of alumina is - 20.00 yuan/ton, the open interest of the alumina main contract is 328,210.00 lots [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 109,225.00 tons, the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,655.00 US dollars/ton, down 21.00 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 513,900.00 tons [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is - 6,865.00 lots, down 9,584.00 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.79, up 0.04 [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,280.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan; the open interest of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 11,186.00 lots, up 419.00 lots [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts are 68,960.00 tons, down 1,801.00 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 127,734.00 tons, down 765.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,850.00 yuan/ton, down 70.00 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,680.00 yuan/ton, down 100.00 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,930.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,690.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 570.00 yuan/ton, down 140.00 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 5.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wumaomao aluminum premium/discount is - 20.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 4.14 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of alumina is 53.00 yuan/ton, up 47.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The output of alumina is 792.47 million tons per month, the national alumina start - up rate is 82.93%, down 1.09%; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45% [2]. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 725.80 million tons per month, up 3.73 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 28.73 million tons per month, up 12.41 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed primary aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,450.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; the average price of crushed primary aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 16,000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and waste is 172,610.37 tons per month, up 12,115.77 tons; the export volume is 53.23 tons per month, down 26.16 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina is 18.00 million tons per month, down 5.00 million tons; the import volume of alumina is 9.44 million tons per month, down 3.16 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is - 11.99 million tons per month, down 30.30 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 59.80 million tons per week, up 0.40 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 217,260.71 tons per month, down 30,322.61 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 25,604.34 tons per month, down 15,383.37 tons [2]. - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons per month, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate is 98.11%, up 0.33% [2]. - The output of aluminum products is 554.82 million tons per month, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 53.00 million tons per month, down 1.00 million tons [2]. - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 63.59 million tons per month, up 1.27 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.91 million tons per month, up 0.42 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 million tons per month, unchanged; the National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. - The output of aluminum alloy is 163.50 million tons per month, up 9.90 million tons; the output of automobiles is 275.24 million vehicles per month, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.66%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.18%, up 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 10.22%, up 0.0017; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.14, up 0.0771 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Bostic believes there is not much reason to cut rates further, expecting only one rate cut this year; Musalem thinks the space for further rate cuts is limited [2]. - By the end of June, the number of local government financing platforms decreased by more than 60% compared with March 2023, and the financial debt scale decreased by more than 50%. China's current monetary policy is supportive and moderately loose [2]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with a US congressional delegation, stating that China and the US should promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of bilateral economic and trade relations [2]. - China's 1 - year LPR in September is 3%, and the over - 5 - year variety is 3.5%, both remaining unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. Analysts expect the central bank to cut interest rates and reserve requirements in the fourth quarter [2].