Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%[2] - The core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, up from 0.5% in the previous period[2] - The cumulative CPI increase for the first five months of this year is 0%, which is weaker than the 0.4% increase during the same period from 2021 to 2024[3] - Food prices showed a cumulative decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 1% in the previous four years[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 3.2%[2] - The cumulative PPI decrease for the first five months of this year is -1.5%, weaker than last year's -0.5%[3] - In the first five months, the prices of production materials, particularly in the mining sector, showed significant weakness, with a cumulative decrease of 8.7% in extraction[5] - Among 32 comparable industries, only 10 showed stronger prices compared to last year, primarily in downstream manufacturing and electric heating sectors[5] Group 3: Price Trends and Influences - Energy prices decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, significantly impacting the overall CPI decline, accounting for nearly 70% of the total drop[4] - The price of gasoline fell by 3.8%, contributing to a 0.13 percentage point decrease in the CPI[7] - The proportion of CPI items experiencing price increases rose from 24% to 29%, indicating a broader inflationary trend[55] - The PPI's year-on-year decline expanded from 2.7% to 3.3%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the production sector[49]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis emphasizes the importance of month-on-month (MoM) price changes over year-on-year (YoY) changes, providing a clearer understanding of price differentiation trends in the current year [4][14]. CPI Analysis - Overall, the cumulative MoM increase in CPI for the first five months of this year is 0%, which is weaker than the 0.4% increase during the same period from 2021 to 2024. However, the core CPI shows a cumulative MoM increase of 0.5%, slightly better than the 0.4% increase in the same period [5][15]. - In terms of categories, food prices have a cumulative MoM increase of -0.6% (compared to -1% in the past four years), rent at 0.1% (0% previously), and core goods at 0.9% (0.1% previously) are considered "strong." Conversely, energy prices at -2.3% (3.8% previously) and core services (excluding rent) at 0.5% (1.2% previously) are deemed "weak" [5][15]. - Detailed breakdowns show that within food, fresh fruits, beef, lamb, and pork prices are "strong" with declines of -7.4% and -16.4%, while grains, cooking oils, fresh vegetables, seafood, and dairy prices are "weak." In energy, water, electricity, and fuel prices are "weak" with a decline of -5.4% [6][16]. PPI Analysis - The cumulative MoM increase in PPI for the first five months of this year is -1.5%, which is weaker than the -0.5% increase during the same period last year [8][23]. - In terms of categories, clothing (0% this year vs. -0.2% last year) and general daily necessities (0.2% vs. 0.1%) are "strong," while mining (-8.7% vs. -1.2%), raw materials (-2.4% vs. 0.9%), and durable goods (-1.4% vs. -1.2%) are "weak" [8][23]. - Among 32 comparable industries, 10 show "strong" prices, mainly in downstream manufacturing and electric water industries. In mining, black metal extraction is "strong," while coal extraction and oil and gas extraction are "weak" [9][24]. May Inflation Data Review - CPI shows a slight decline both YoY and MoM, with food prices experiencing a small YoY drop and energy prices seeing a deeper YoY decline. Core CPI shows a slight YoY increase [29][39]. - The MoM CPI decreased by 0.2%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than the average of the past five years. Food prices shifted from a 0.2% increase to a 0.2% decrease, while energy prices dropped by 1.7% [31][39]. - The core CPI reflects a 0.1% decrease in rent, which is lower than the 2015-2019 average, and a stable core goods price. Durable goods prices continue to decline, with transportation tools down by 0.4% [32][36]. Price Change Proportions - The proportion of CPI items with price increases has expanded, with the ratio rising from 24% to 29%, which is at the 11% percentile since 2016 [44]. - Conversely, the proportion of PPI industries with price increases has significantly narrowed, with the number of industries increasing prices dropping from 8 to 5, resulting in a decrease from 27% to 17% [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In May, the month - on - month decline of PPI remained the same as in April, and the year - on - year decline of CPI also stayed unchanged. However, after excluding the impact of supply factors such as oil prices and food, marginal new structural changes emerged [1][9]. - In terms of PPI, the drag effect based on trade eased after excluding the 0.2 - percentage - point drag of oil prices. The PPI of export - oriented industries improved marginally, and the price of PPI durable consumer goods manufacturing industry rebounded [1][9]. - In terms of CPI, food performed better than the seasonal level, but the upward momentum of core consumer goods prices continued to weaken. Attention should be paid to the launch of a new round of consumption - promotion policies [2][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 May Price Trend: Potential Changes Behind the "Unchanged" Trend - **PPI**: The month - on - month decline in May remained at - 0.4%. After excluding the 0.2 - percentage - point drag of oil prices, the drag effect based on trade eased. The PPI of export - oriented industries improved marginally after the progress of the China - US trade meeting in May. The price of PPI durable consumer goods manufacturing industry rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1% in May and the year - on - year decline narrowing from 3.7% in April to 3.3% [1][9][11]. - **CPI**: Food performed better than the seasonal level, but the upward momentum of core consumer goods prices continued to weaken. Food supply tightening supported prices, short - term consumption demands such as tourism and clothing continued to be released, while prices of rent, furniture, and cars linked to residents' long - term income were still falling. Core consumer goods have dragged down CPI for two consecutive months after excluding the impact of gold prices, and a new round of consumption - promotion policies may be launched [2][13]. 3.2 May CPI: Food and Tourism Perform Better than Seasonal Levels, but Month - on - Month Decline Continues Due to Oil Price Drag - **Overall Situation**: In May 2025, the listing of fresh vegetables supported the food item, tourism in non - food items performed better than the seasonal level. However, affected by oil prices, durable consumer goods, and rent, CPI declined month - on - month to - 0.2% and remained at - 0.1% year - on - year. The factors affecting CPI month - on - month change from high to low were: services (0)> livestock meat (- 0.01pct)> fresh produce (- 0.03pct)> core consumer goods (- 0.03pct)> energy (- 0.13pct) [2][16]. - **Food Item**: The month - on - month decline of the food item fell back to around - 0.2%, stronger than the seasonal level, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.04 percentage points. Beef prices rose due to reduced imports, while pork prices fell. Fresh vegetable prices decreased, while limited supplies of fresh fruits and aquatic products supported food prices [2][19]. - **Non - food Item**: The month - on - month decline of the non - food item exceeded the seasonal level, falling to - 0.2%, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.16 percentage points. Oil prices dropped, clothing was the main supporting item in core consumer goods, while furniture and car prices still had a drag. Travel - related prices in services were resilient, but rent was still weak [23][24][25]. 3.3 May PPI: Oil Price Drag Increases, Price Decline of Export Industries Narrows, and Month - on - Month Decline Remains at - 0.4% - **Overall Situation**: The month - on - month decline of PPI remained around - 0.4%, mainly dragged down by production materials, while the performance of living materials improved. In May, production material prices decreased by 0.6% (- 0.1pct), and the prices of living materials turned from negative to flat [30]. - **By Industry**: The number of industries with price declines among industrial producers was still around two - thirds. The drag factors were the crude oil industry chain, building - material - related prices, and energy prices such as coal and gas. The supporting factors were export - related industries such as automobiles and machinery, and the non - ferrous metal industry [4][31][36].

股指早报 中美贸易会谈中，A 股收 3399 2025 年 6 月 10 日 股指期货早报 2025.6.10 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 4 月批发销售月率录得 0.1%，低于预期 0.3%和前 值 0.8%；美 5 月纽约联储一年通胀预期录得 3.2%，低于前值 3.63%， 数据指向美经济的边际回落。另外美国与中国贸易会谈昨日在伦敦举 行第一轮谈判在今日凌晨 3 点结束，第二轮将在今日 10 点开始。市 场密切关注会谈信息，从隔夜市场走势来看，美元指数震荡走低，美 债收益率短端和长端均上涨，黄金收涨，美三大股指涨跌不一，道指 收平，纳指和标普收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨，离岸人民币汇 率升值。从走势来看，市场处于谨慎乐观。此次谈判关注重点在于是 否会降低关税，以及 90 天关税暂停期是否会延长等。 国内基本面上看，周一统计局公布 5 月通胀数据，5 月 CPI 同比 录得-0.1%，与前值一致，5 月 PPI 同比录得-3.3%，前值-2.7%。农 产品和猪肉价格对 CPI 期到拖累，PPI 则更多受能源价格的拖累。通 胀数据指向目前国内总需求依旧偏弱，经济修复依旧需要政策支持。 盘面上看，周一大盘高开 ...

Inflation Data Summary - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and recorded -0.1% year-on-year, remaining in the negative growth range[2] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies[2] - Food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%[2] - Seasonal vegetable supply increased, leading to a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices, while fresh fruit prices rose by 3.3% due to supply constraints[13] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI continued to decline, recording -3.3% year-on-year and -0.4% month-on-month[3] - International commodity prices fell sharply, impacting sectors like oil and gas extraction, which saw a price drop of 5.6%[20] - Consumer goods prices showed some recovery, with clothing and durable goods prices increasing by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively[20] - New energy sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries experienced a narrowing of price declines, with reductions of -12.1% and -5.0% respectively[21] Economic Outlook - Overall inflation data indicates a low operating level, with both CPI and PPI in negative growth ranges, reflecting insufficient effective demand in the economy[23] - Despite short-term pressure from food and energy prices, core CPI stabilization and structural improvements suggest that policy measures are gradually taking effect[23] - The monetary policy is expected to remain flexible and appropriate, potentially utilizing tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to stabilize domestic demand and market expectations[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market basically operated within the desirable range of 1.65% - 1.70% last week. The weak inflation data in May further accumulated momentum for monetary policy easing. The fixed - income market will continue to follow the logic centered on the central bank's monetary policy path, and future breakthrough points need to be explored from the perspectives of continuous weakening of domestic demand and further reduction of policy interest rates [3][18]. - In May, both the year - on - year and month - on - month CPI decreased, and the PPI remained at a relatively low level in the negative range. The low - price phenomenon is still severe [2][27]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bond Data Review of Last Week - **Funding Rates**: DR001 dropped from 1.48% on May 30 to 1.41% on June 3 and remained stable at this level on June 6; R001 fell from 1.57% on May 30 to 1.46% on June 3 and closed at 1.45% on June 6; DR007 declined from 1.66% on May 30 to 1.55% on June 3 and closed at 1.53% on June 6; FR007 decreased from 1.75% on May 30 to 1.59% on June 3 and closed at 1.56% on June 6 [7]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, injecting 930.9 billion yuan, with a total maturity of 1602.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of - 671.7 billion yuan [7]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond interest rate spread showed different trends at short and long ends. The 6 - month interest rate spread between China and the US was - 255BP, with a slight reduction in the inversion; the 2 - year and 10 - year spreads were - 262BP and - 285BP respectively, with an expansion in the inversion [12]. - **Term Spread and Yield Curve**: The term spread of Chinese bonds widened, and the yield curve steepened downward; the term spread of US bonds contracted, and the yield curve flattened upward [14]. 2. Continued Weakening of May Inflation Data - **CPI**: In May, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.1%, remaining stable for three consecutive months. The year - on - year CPI of food items was - 0.4%, continuing to decline from the previous value of - 0.2%, while the non - food items remained the same as last month. The core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year. The month - on - month CPI was - 0.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value and back to the negative range [1][19]. - **PPI**: In May, the year - on - year PPI was - 3.3%, with the decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous value. The month - on - month PPI was - 0.4%, remaining in a negative growth state. Overall, the year - on - year and month - on - month CPI and PPI in May were in a relatively low negative range, and the low - price phenomenon was still severe [2][22][27]. 3. Key Bond Market Events of Last Week - **China - UK Economic and Financial Dialogue**: On June 8, 2025, He Lifeng, the Chinese co - chair of the China - UK Economic and Financial Dialogue, met with UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt in London. They exchanged in - depth views on China - UK economic and financial cooperation and issues of common concern [28]. - **US Unemployment Rate**: In May, the US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. Non - farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, lower than the revised 147,000 in the previous month but higher than the market expectation of 129,000 [28].

Core Viewpoints - The improvement in consumer demand stabilizes the core CPI, but supply-side factors significantly suppress inflation readings [3][68] Group 1: Key Features of Core CPI Stabilization - Feature 1: The core commodity PPI shows a significant rebound, primarily due to improved demand and a lack of further tariff impacts. In May, the core commodity PPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to -1.4% [3][68] - Feature 2: Consumption promotion policies combined with rising gold prices lead to an increase in core commodity CPI. In May, the core commodity CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2% [4][19] - Feature 3: The increase in holiday days in May allows for a more substantial release of service demand, pushing the core service CPI higher. The service CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 0.5% in May [4][22] Group 2: Outlook and Regular Tracking - The combination of policy reinforcement and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but supply-side changes must be monitored for their impact on price readings [5][33] - The overall CPI in May was -0.1%, slightly better than market expectations, with food supply showing a mixed performance [5][27] - The non-food CPI saw improvements in transportation and communication, while fuel prices for transportation significantly declined [51][71]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) is showing positive performance with a recent price of 123.87 yuan and a trading volume indicating strong liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Liquidity - As of June 10, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF has increased by 0.05% [1]. - The ETF has a trading turnover of 4.34% with a total transaction value of 786 million yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 18.109 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Market Conditions - In the past 20 trading days, there have been net inflows on 12 days, totaling 2.098 billion yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 105 million yuan [2]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including May CPI and PPI, are expected to reflect weak domestic demand and consumer confidence, which may positively influence the bond market [2]. - The central bank's proactive measures, including a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, signal a commitment to maintaining a loose monetary environment [2]. Group 3: Investment Characteristics - The 30-year Treasury ETF is considered a valuable tool for portfolio management, offering low trading thresholds and high trading efficiency [3]. - Individual investors can participate with a minimum transaction unit of 100 shares, approximately 10,000 yuan [3]. - The ETF benefits from ample liquidity provided by multiple market makers, ensuring immediate transaction execution [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅反弹。昨日统计局公布的最新通胀数据继续走弱，说明国内需求方 面表现不足，稳增长政策预期持续升温。目前政策利好预期升温，市场情绪偏 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%[4] - The month-on-month CPI fell by 0.2 percentage points, aligning with seasonal trends observed over the past five and ten years[6] - Energy prices significantly impacted CPI, with a month-on-month decline of 1.7%, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - China's PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May, a larger decline than the previous month's 2.7%[4] - The month-on-month PPI fell by 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, indicating continued weak performance[26] - Production material prices were under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 4.0%, affecting the overall industrial producer price level by about 2.98 percentage points[30] Group 3: Sector Performance - Service prices showed stronger recovery compared to consumer goods, with service prices rising by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods continued to decline[9] - Transportation and communication prices experienced significant month-on-month declines, with transportation fuel prices dropping by 3.7%[11] - Core CPI, excluding energy, saw an increase, indicating a recovery in non-energy consumer goods and services driven by policy support and holiday effects[25]