有色金属周报 20250511 宏观风险降温，金属价格震荡 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ➢ 本周（05/06-05/09）上证综指上涨 1.92%，沪深 300 指数上涨 2%，SW 有色 指数上涨 1.57%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金下跌-1.57%，COMEX 白银下跌-1.95%。工业 金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动-0.78%、-0.52%、+0.40%、 +1.83%、-0.75%、-0.62%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 1.95%、-1.97%、-1.5%、-3.09%、-1.21%、+0.19%。 ➢ 工业金属：海外宏观方面多空交织，美国 4 月非农就业超预期和失业率稳定暂缓 衰退担忧，但一季度 GDP 年化收缩 0.3%叠加潜在关税又使经济停滞风险升高；国内 开启降准降息及公积金利率下调，宏观利好氛围不变，工业金属价格震荡。铜方面，供 应端，本周 SMM 进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.11 美元/干吨，周度环比减少 0.5 美元/ 干吨。Antofagasta 与中国冶炼厂的年中长单谈判预计将于月底正式开启，鉴于当前恶 劣的现货市场环境和严 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 5 月 9 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/08 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/04/28 175 881 116753 36884 -303.45 943.11 93.0 115.0 28.60 202800 70775 2025/04/29 205 1082 116753 34042 -121.50 784.42 94.0 115.0 -9.76 202500 71500 2025/04/30 230 997 116753 28166 -118.83 721.42 94.0 115.0 -6.80 200150 71050 2025/05/06 285 1063 116753 24922 -38.41 794.66 100.0 115.0 21.75 195625 86950 2025/05/07 260 1321 116753 21541 52.52 553.27 100.0 115.0 21.65 193975 86125 变 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas demand remains strong, and China's exports are at a high level. In Jan - Mar 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 20,928 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.5%; overseas crude steel consumption totaled 23,879 kt, a y-o-y increase of 0.60%, with March consumption hitting a record monthly high; China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 2,951 kt, a significant y-o-y increase of 18.2%; overseas total iron production totaled 13,006 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.2%, equivalent to a decrease of 253 kt in iron ore consumption, with overseas total iron production growing by 1.5% in March, the highest growth rate since March last year [3][16][86]. - Domestic demand is still resilient, and iron ore consumption has increased year-on-year. In Jan - Mar 2025, China's domestic crude steel production totaled 26,300 kt, flat y-o-y, with March production showing a significant y-o-y increase; domestic crude steel consumption totaled 22,403 kt, with consumption continuing to recover; domestic pig iron production totaled 21,712 kt, a y-o-y increase of 1.6%, equivalent to an increase of 541 kt in iron ore consumption, and the daily hot metal output in March was 244.2 kt, a y-o-y increase of 5.7% [3][22][87]. - Supply has increased month-on-month, and demand is expected to decline. Iron ore will shift from a tight - balance to a loose situation. As of May 2, the cumulative y-o-y decline in global iron ore shipments was 725 kt, an increase of 836 kt from the low point in February. Currently, hot metal production is still rising but has reached a historical high, with limited growth space. If hot metal production peaks and declines later while iron ore supply continues to increase, the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser [4][45][87]. - The US has imposed global tariffs, increasing global economic uncertainty. China's manufacturing PMI in April dropped from 50.5 in March to 49, breaking below the boom - bust line and hitting the largest decline since December 2023. The global manufacturing industry is also under pressure, with the JPMorgan Global PMI falling to 49.8%, entering the contraction range for the first time this year [4][75][88]. - There are frequent discussions about reducing crude steel production, further exacerbating the iron ore supply - demand situation. Relevant departments have stated that they will continue to implement crude steel production control and promote the reduction and restructuring of the steel industry, increasing market attention to industrial policies [8][78][88]. - The iron ore production capacity has entered an expansion cycle, and the price center is expected to decline. With the release of new global production capacity, the iron ore supply - demand pattern has become looser since last year, and domestic port iron ore inventories have remained at a relatively high level. If the annual average price is estimated to be between $90 - 95, high - cost non - mainstream mines will reduce shipments to China, which may further intensify the supply - demand situation and cause the price to fall below the predicted range. Considering future demand decline and industrial policy implementation, as well as the premium and discount of Dalian iron ore futures, the operating range of the iron ore 09 contract is reasonably estimated to be between $80 - 95 per ton [2][8][89]. Summaries by Directory Global Steel Industry Supply - Demand Analysis Overseas demand is strong, and China's exports are at a high level - In Jan - Mar 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 20,928 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.5%, but the year - on - year growth in March turned positive; overseas crude steel consumption totaled 23,879 kt, a y-o-y increase of 0.60%, with March consumption hitting a record monthly high; China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 2,951 kt, a significant y-o-y increase of 18.2%; overseas total iron production totaled 13,006 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.2%, equivalent to a decrease of 253 kt in iron ore consumption, with overseas total iron production growing by 1.5% in March, the highest growth rate since March last year [3][16][86]. Domestic demand is still resilient, and iron ore consumption has increased year - on - year - In Jan - Mar 2025, domestic crude steel production totaled 26,300 kt, flat y-o-y, with the daily output growth rates in the past three months being - 8.1%, + 1.7%, and + 7.1% respectively, and March production showing a significant y-o-y increase; domestic crude steel consumption totaled 22,403 kt, with the daily consumption growth rates in the past three months being - 15.40%, + 11.0%, and + 8.40% respectively, indicating continuous consumption recovery; domestic pig iron production totaled 21,712 kt, a y-o-y increase of 1.6%, equivalent to an increase of 541 kt in iron ore consumption, and the daily hot metal output in March was 244.2 kt, a y-o-y increase of 5.7%, with the growth rate of iron ore consumption turning positive in March [22][23][87]. The impact of hurricanes and price drops has led to a significant year - on - year decline in imports - In Jan - Mar 2025, China imported 285 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 24.79 million tons compared to the same period last year, a cumulative y-o-y decrease of 8.0%. Affected by hurricanes, imports from Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and India showed different trends, with overall imports in March showing a significant year - on - year decline, and the supply side contracting under the influence of hurricanes and price drops [29][30][39]. Supply is increasing month - on - month, and demand is expected to decline. Iron ore will shift from a tight - balance to a loose situation Shipments are continuously recovering, with a more obvious recovery in Brazil - As of May 2, the cumulative y-o-y decline in global iron ore shipments was 725 kt, an increase of 836 kt from the low point in February. Among them, shipments from Australia decreased by 434 kt year - on - year, an increase of 504 kt from the low point; shipments from Brazil increased by 367 kt year - on - year, an increase of 609 kt from the low point; non - mainstream shipments decreased by 658 kt year - on - year, showing a downward trend. As of May 2, the cumulative y-o-y decline in iron ore shipments from the four major mines was 118 kt, and attention should be paid to the replenishment of the four major mines in the future [46][47][48]. Shipments are continuously recovering, and future arrivals will remain at a high level - As of May 4, the cumulative y-o-y decline in arrivals at 45 ports was 2,223 kt. Based on current shipment data, iron ore arrivals will remain at a high level in the future [49][50][57]. Domestic iron ore demand is approaching its peak, and the supply - demand situation will become looser - Domestic demand has been performing well this year, and exports have also shown strong growth. The sum of domestic demand and exports has shown an obvious recovery trend, but the growth rate has slowed down. The current hot metal production is still rising but has reached a historical high, with limited growth space. If the hot metal production peaks and declines later while iron ore supply continues to increase, the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser [58][59][87]. Iron ore supply - demand will turn into a surplus, and uncertainties have increased significantly Domestic demand is stable, and iron ore supply - demand will turn into a surplus - Assuming a 0.1% y-o-y increase in domestic steel consumption and considering the impact of new production capacity on iron ore supply, the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser in the future, and port inventories will remain at a relatively high level [65][66][70]. The US has imposed global tariffs, increasing global economic uncertainty - Since the Trump administration restarted the trade war against China in 2025, the US has imposed multiple rounds of tariff increases on Chinese goods, which has had a significant impact on the global economy. China's manufacturing PMI in April dropped significantly, and the global manufacturing industry is also under pressure. The US itself is also facing negative impacts, such as inventory shortages in retailers and a decline in freight volume in the logistics industry [74][75][88]. There are frequent discussions about reducing crude steel production, further exacerbating the iron ore supply - demand situation - Relevant departments have stated that they will implement policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries, including continuous crude steel production control, which has increased market attention to industrial policies. If the policy is implemented, domestic iron ore demand will decline, although overseas iron ore demand may increase to some extent, but overall, it will have a negative impact on iron ore premium capabilities [78][79][88]. The iron ore production capacity has entered an expansion cycle, and the price center is expected to decline - With the release of new global production capacity, the iron ore supply - demand pattern has become looser since last year, and domestic port iron ore inventories have remained at a relatively high level. If the annual average price is estimated to be between $90 - 95, high - cost non - mainstream mines will reduce shipments to China, which may cause the price to fall below the predicted range. Considering future demand decline and industrial policy implementation, as well as the premium and discount of Dalian iron ore futures, the operating range of the iron ore 09 contract is reasonably estimated to be between $80 - 95 per ton [8][81][89]. Conclusion - Overseas demand is strong, and China's exports are at a high level. Domestic demand is still resilient, and iron ore consumption has increased year - on - year. Supply is increasing month - on - month, and demand is expected to decline. Iron ore will shift from a tight - balance to a loose situation. The US has imposed global tariffs, increasing global economic uncertainty. There are frequent discussions about reducing crude steel production, further exacerbating the iron ore supply - demand situation. The iron ore production capacity has entered an expansion cycle, and the price center is expected to decline. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of short - selling iron ore at high prices during the production capacity expansion cycle [86][87][90]

| 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | LME C-3M | LME锌库存 | LME锌注销仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/24 | -217.88 | -833.44 | 140 | -33 | 182300 | 31700 | | 2025/04/25 | -150.12 | -851.44 | 140 | -35 | 180050 | 29575 | | 2025/04/28 | -52.89 | -707.36 | 140 | -36 | 179325 | 29525 | | 2025/04/29 | -65.03 | -746.91 | 140 | -35 | 177550 | 31125 | | 2025/04/30 | -4.26 | -777.42 | 140 | -35 | 175275 | 31000 | | 变化 | 60.77 | -30.51 | 0 | 0 | -2275 | -125 | 本周锌价格重心反弹后宽幅震荡，关税情绪改善。供应端，本周国内T ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/04/30 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/04/23 180 1237 171611 44965 -24.87 699.82 88.0 103.0 -19.12 205250 77825 2025/04/24 175 1117 171611 42964 -300.46 737.71 88.0 103.0 6.43 203425 76050 2025/04/25 180 1130 116753 41588 -215.41 591.25 90.0 110.0 2.41 203450 77250 2025/04/28 175 881 116753 36884 -303.45 943.11 93.0 115.0 28.60 202800 70775 2025/04/29 205 1082 116753 34042 -121.50 784.42 94.0 115.0 -9.76 202500 71500 变 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年4月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：PTA自身装置检修兑现下延续去库，但下游终端需求仍受美国关税影响，且随着仓单流出PTA现货市场流通性尚可， 短期内PTA现货基差上行受阻，价格则跟随成本端震荡运行为主，后市关注原油市场波动及五一前后终端装置变动情况。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差下跌后走强，贸易商商谈为主，个别聚酯工厂有递盘。 个别主流供应商有出货。5月上在09+85~100有成交，5月中下商谈区间宽泛，在09+70~120商谈成交。今日主流现货基差在 09+93。中性 2、基 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 4 月 29 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate may continue to be weak on both sides. If there is no large - scale production halt or reduction, the price outlook remains pessimistic. The supply may decline month - on - month in May due to previous price drops leading to upstream production cuts, but new projects are coming on - stream, and the cost of mines/integrated projects has decreased significantly in the past two quarters. On the demand side, factors such as tariff concerns, high downstream inventory, and the fact that the increase in battery - end demand mainly digests positive electrode inventory rather than drives new production all limit demand growth [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract dropped by 2.8%. Lithium ore and lithium salt prices declined, while cathode material prices showed a mixed trend. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased from 70,180 yuan/ton to 68,180 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropped from 808 dollars/ton to 793 dollars/ton [6][7]. 3.2 Inventory - The weekly lithium carbonate inventory increased by 259 tons to 131,864 tons. Upstream inventory increased by 270 tons to 52,400 tons, inventory in other links decreased by 1,100 tons to 36,641 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1,089 tons to 42,823 tons [6][14]. 3.3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - The document presents charts of lithium carbonate import profit, theoretical delivery profit, and other related profits, but no specific numerical summaries are provided [20][21]. 3.4 Production 3.4.1 Lithium Resources - The import volume charts of lithium concentrate from different countries (Brazil, Canada, Australia, etc.) are presented, and the production data of Chinese sample mica + spodumene (LCE) are also shown. For example, in March 2025, the total production of sample lithium mica mines (with a market share of about 65%) was 13,420 tons (in lithium carbonate equivalent), and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines was 3,420 tons (in lithium carbonate equivalent) [22][24][26]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 488 tons to 16,900 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene decreased by 390 tons to 8,743 tons, lithium extraction from lithium mica decreased by 100 tons to 3,527 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 20 tons to 2,923 tons, and lithium extraction from recycling decreased by 18 tons to 1,707 tons [4][6][29]. 3.4.3 Lithium Hydroxide - Charts of lithium hydroxide production by process, capacity, and import - export are presented, but no specific numerical summaries are provided [43][44]. 3.4.4 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - Charts of lithium hexafluorophosphate production, export, and monthly operating rate are presented, but no specific numerical summaries are provided [45][46][47]. 3.4.5 Waste Recycling - Charts of waste lithium - battery recycling volume are presented, showing the recycling volume of ternary waste, lithium iron phosphate waste, and lithium cobalt oxide waste [51][52]. 3.5 Ternary Precursor and Ternary Material - The weekly inventory of ternary materials decreased by 263 tons to 14,195 tons. Charts of production profit, capacity, production, operating rate, and import - export of ternary precursors and ternary materials are presented [6][56][57]. 3.6 Lithium Iron Phosphate - The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 3,000 tons to 94,110 tons. Charts of lithium iron phosphate operating rate, capacity, production, and cost are presented [6][59]. 3.7 Other Materials - Charts of the capacity, production, and operating rate of lithium manganate and lithium cobalt oxide are presented [60][61]. 3.8 Power Cells - The weekly production of power cells increased by 7.9% to 24.98 GWh. Among them, lithium iron - based cells increased by 10.7% to 17.37 GWh, and ternary cells increased by 1.9% to 7.61 GWh [6][63]. 3.9 Lithium Batteries - Charts of lithium battery production, installation volume, and inventory by type (iron - lithium, ternary, etc.) are presented [66][67][69][71]. 3.10 Terminal - New Energy Vehicles - From April 1 - 20, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 478,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%, with a retail penetration rate of 53.3%. The cumulative retail volume this year was 2.898 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles from manufacturers was 530,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.3%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 3.378 million units, a year - on - year increase of 39% [4][6][72]. 3.11 Supply - Demand Balance - Charts of the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary precursors are presented [75][80][82]. 3.12 Options - Charts of historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and put - call ratios of option positions and trading volumes of lithium carbonate are presented [85][88][89].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·玻璃玻纤 旗滨集团（601636） 2024 年年报、2025 年一季报点评：Q1 毛利 率改善，静待供需平衡进一步修复 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 15,683 | 15,649 | 16,278 | 18,563 | 21,507 | | 同比（%） | 17.80 | (0.21) | 4.02 | 14.04 | 15.86 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,750.88 | 382.59 | 603.91 | 757.84 | 1,129.91 | | 同比（%） | 32.98 | (78.15) | 57.85 | 25.49 | 49.10 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.65 | 0.14 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 0.42 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 8.52 | 39.00 | 24.71 | 19.69 | 1 ...