Core Insights - The main point of the article is the significant increase in the Shanghai silver futures, with the main contract rising by 3% to a current price of 9667 yuan per kilogram [1] Group 1 - The Shanghai silver futures main contract experienced a notable increase of 3% [1] - The current trading price of silver futures is reported at 9667 yuan per kilogram [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 8 月 29 日星期五 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格上涨 9 元至 2377 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 格下跌 18 元/吨至 2232 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 29440 手至 45.44 万手， 空头持仓增加 23822 手至 54.58 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 甲醇 | 震荡 发 | 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 84.8%，环比上涨 1.2%。海外甲醇开工率 71.9%，环 比+4.8%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 129.93 万吨，较上一期数据增加 22.33 万 吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 18.28 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 4.05 万吨。中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 33.34 万吨，较上期增加 2.26 万吨，环比涨 7.27%。 3、需求方面，西北甲醇企业签单 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The expectation of monetary easing supports market risk appetite. In China, the difficulty of achieving the annual economic target is not high, and market risk appetite may also be supported. Short - term market volatility may increase as important events approach and economic growth slows [7]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. Domestic market sentiment may remain high until early September, after which the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut is strengthening, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to become looser [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. Powell's speech at the annual meeting was dovish, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. US consumer confidence deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In the real estate sector, new housing starts increased steadily in July, while building permit issuance continued to decline [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened marginally, but it is still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies. The probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased, and domestic demand remains at a reasonable level. The capital market remains loose, providing support for related assets [7]. - **Asset Views**: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high - level sentiment until early September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has strengthened, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to enter a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel. Short - term market volatility may increase [7]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Leveraged funds are crowded, and there is early profit - taking. The decline of incremental funds is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The bearish side has strong betting. The deterioration of option market liquidity is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remains loose, and the yield curve steepens. Concerns include unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of a restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September is positive for prices, but the impact of market risk appetite needs attention. Concerns include US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is no driving force for price increases. The rate of price decline in September is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The actual support is limited, and the futures prices are under pressure. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The daily consumption of imported sinter has decreased, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Coke**: The eighth - round negotiation continues, and some coke enterprises are reducing production. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Production has decreased, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The black chain is under pressure, and futures prices are weak. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The sector remains weak, and futures prices are running weakly. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are maintained, and some regions are promoting price stability through price increases. Concerns include spot sales and production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has decreased in the short - term, and rigid demand remains. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed policies, weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. Concerns include unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventory has slightly accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and weaker - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black series have fallen, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [8]. - **Lead**: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and a slowdown in battery exports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has been rising, and the stainless - steel futures prices are correcting. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected growth in demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Tin**: Raw material supply remains tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously volatile. Concerns include unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The game between bulls and bears continues, and prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized. Attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. Concerns include the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have fallen, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are following the decline of crude oil. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating downward following crude oil. Concerns include crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory has accumulated, but petrochemical news has provided short - term support. Methanol prices are oscillating. Concerns include macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea prices are oscillating in the short - term. Concerns include export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Low inventory and peak - season expectations resonate, providing strong support for prices at the lower end. Concerns include fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PX**: Emotional stimulation and peak - season promotion. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **PTA**: Supply decreases and demand increases, with an expected inventory reduction from August to October. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. Concerns include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device load reduction. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: Inventory has declined, and processing fees are under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. Concerns include unexpected production increases by bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Propylene**: In the short - term, it mainly follows the fluctuations of PP. Concerns include oil prices and the domestic macro - environment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PP**: News related to Zhonghan Petrochemical has stimulated the market, but fundamental support is limited. PP prices are oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Plastic**: News of anti - internal competition in the petrochemical industry has provided support, and plastic prices have strengthened slightly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Concerns include oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has improved, and PVC prices have weakly stabilized. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Caustic Soda and Oils**: The rebound of spot prices has slowed down, and short - term long positions in the near - month contracts have taken profits. The expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US continues, and there is still significant pressure for oil price adjustments. Concerns include market sentiment, production start - up, demand, US soybean weather, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The import and crushing profit of soybeans has declined rapidly. Attention should be paid to the support at the integer - level mark for soybean meal. Concerns include US soybean weather, domestic demand, the macro - environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The decline of spot prices has slowed down, and futures prices have rebounded slightly. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, the macro - environment, and weather. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Pigs**: Inventory pressure remains, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Prices are following the market sentiment and falling, with little change in its own situation. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Futures prices are following the decline of natural rubber. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Pulp**: Prices have been continuously declining, possibly due to pricing based on spruce. Concerns include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the expected purchase price. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Sugar**: The short - term supply pressure has increased, and sugar prices continue to decline. Concerns include imports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Logs**: Delivery pressure remains high, and log prices are adjusting weakly. Concerns include shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the recent device changes are frequent, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, the spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate accordingly. However, the processing margin needs improvement, and attention should be paid to the maintenance duration of Hengli Huizhou device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory will continue to decline in the near two weeks due to scarce arrivals in late August and improved提货 at the main port. Starting from early September, the arrivals from overseas will increase. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong under the resonance of low port inventory and the expectation of the polyester peak season, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term. Attention should be paid to polyester load and production - sales changes [7]. - The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the market rebounds [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: The PTA futures oscillated and declined yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market improved compared with the previous day, the spot basis loosened, with mainly traders negotiating and sporadic polyester factories making inquiries. Next - week's goods were traded at a discount of 20 - 30 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4755 - 4810. Goods in mid - and late - September were traded at a discount of 20 - 25 to the 01 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 24 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4775, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 17, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, an increase of 0.1 days compared with the previous period [6]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main force position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [5]. - Expectation: The short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the maintenance duration of Hengli Huizhou device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. MEG - Fundamental: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and the market negotiation was average. The commodity atmosphere was weak during the day, and a major polyester bottle - chip manufacturer will maintain production cuts, suppressing market sentiment. The ethylene glycol futures were sorted at a low level during the day, and the spot negotiation and trading were carried out at a premium of 62 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. There were more spot offers this week. However, the support gradually emerged after the price fell to a low level, and the futures rebounded moderately in the afternoon. In terms of US dollars, the overseas price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and a small number of traders participated in buying. Recent shipments were traded at around 531 - 533 US dollars/ton. There was a tender for a Malaysian shipment during the day, and attention should be paid to the transaction progress [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4525, and the basis of the 01 contract is 60, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 40.63 tons, a decrease of 9.42 tons compared with the previous period [7]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main force position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [7]. - Expectation: The port inventory will continue to decline in the near two weeks, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation starting from early September. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and attention should be paid to polyester load and production - sales changes [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, exports, total demand, and inventory changes [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including total operating rate, production, new production capacity, imports, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, and port inventory changes [12]. Price - It shows the price changes of various products on August 28, 2025, including spot prices of naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, and polyester products, as well as futures prices and basis of PTA and MEG, and processing margins and profits of related products [13]. Inventory Analysis - It shows the inventory changes of PTA, MEG, PET slices, polyester fibers, etc. in different periods through charts [40][41][43]. Polyester Upstream Start - up - It shows the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol in different periods through charts [51][52][54]. Polyester Downstream Start - up - It shows the start - up rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in different periods through charts [55][56][58]. PTA Processing Fee - It shows the PTA processing fee changes in different periods through a chart [59][60]. MEG Profit - It shows the profit changes of MEG produced by different processes (methanol, coal - based syngas, naphtha integration, ethylene) in different periods through charts [62][63]. Polyester Fiber Profit - It shows the profit changes of polyester short - fiber and different types of polyester long - fiber (DTY, POY, FDY) in different periods through charts [65][67][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bullish view on device changes and supply - demand balance [5] - PX: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bullish view on downstream demand [6] - Ethylene Glycol: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bearish view on month - spread and device changes, and a cautiously bullish view on downstream demand [7] 2. Core Views PTA - PTA supply has unexpected maintenance, demand seasonally recovers, the balance improves, and the price recovers. It is greatly affected by sentiment in the short term, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [5] PX - PX inventory pressure is not large, recent supply maintenance plans increase, the expected balance is tight, and the PXN around $270 is slightly high. The current valuation reflects the expectation of fundamental improvement. Pay attention to sentiment changes in the short term and buy on dips [6] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol has a strong current situation but weak expectations. The near - end low inventory has little pressure to accumulate, the coal - based load is at a high level. It is expected that existing devices will restart and new ones will be put into production in the fourth quarter. There is support from anti - involution and coal. Pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [7] 3. Summary by Directory Demand Seasonal Improvement - Terminal orders have partial improvement, and the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing machines have increased by 7%, 5%, and 5% to 79%, 68%, and 72% respectively. Downstream raw material inventory is 10 - 20 days, and orders have slightly improved [9] - As of August 22, the polyester load is around 90% (+0.6%), the polyester cash flow is slightly in the red, and the average polyester inventory is around 17 days. Polyester is approaching the peak season, demand has seasonal improvement, and raw materials are strong due to "anti - involution", slightly compressing polyester profits. Last week's sales were good, and polyester overall reduced inventory, with the current inventory being neutral [13] - Polyester industry chain profits are average. Filament profits are slightly in the red, FDY losses are relatively serious, bottle - chip and slice profits are average, and staple - fiber profits are neutral [14] PTA Unexpected Maintenance Increase - In August, PTA maintenance volume was high, and maintenance plans increased in September. YS Dahua and YS Hainan are under maintenance, Jiaxing Petrochemical extended its maintenance and restarted, and Fuhua will restart in mid - September. Hengli Huizhou's two lines are under maintenance and reducing load, and Dushan Energy No. 2 is under planned maintenance [34] - As of August 22, PTA social inventory remained stable, (excluding credit warehouse receipts) inventory decreased to 220 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The balance in September may continue to reduce inventory [35] - PTA supply - demand balance: In August - September, with unexpected supply improvement and better demand, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, but the price has reflected the supply improvement. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and buy on dips [40] PXN Strength - US gasoline inventory decreases seasonally, the gasoline cracking spread during the peak season remains stable, and the octane number performance is average. Currently, the economics of blending oil is average, and the short - process profit in Asia is acceptable [47][49] - The US - Asia arbitrage spread remains stable. After considering the 25% US tariff on Japan and South Korea, the spread space is not large, and xylene is exempted. North America's demand for aromatics has significantly decreased in 2025, and South Korea's exports of aromatics to the US have remained low since April [55] - PX domestic load changes little, with the domestic load at 84.6% and the Asian load at 76.3%. Tianjin Petrochemical is under maintenance, CNOOC Huizhou slightly reduced its load. There are rumors of maintenance plans for Zhejiang and Lianyungang suppliers. In Asia, Thailand's THAI OIL restarted, Japan's Idemitsu's one line is under maintenance, and Saudi Arabia's Petro Rabigh device restarted [57] - PX is in a loose balance with PTA maintenance. With the expectation of PX maintenance, the PXN remains around $270. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [59] Ethylene Glycol Situation - As of August 22, the overall ethylene glycol load is stable at 73%, and the coal - based load is 77%. The coal - chemical load is high, and there are some unexpected situations in some coal - chemical loads. It is expected that the coal - chemical load will slightly decrease in September [69] - Domestic ethylene glycol device changes: The domestic overall load is not low, and there are coal - chemical maintenance plans. Shenghong restarted, Tianying and Wonen restarted, Shanxi Weihua and Shenhua Yulin are under maintenance, and Tianye has a maintenance plan in September. Overseas, Singapore's Aster is under maintenance, and the restart of the cracking device is postponed. US Lotte and Malaysia's Petronas restarted [72][84] - As of August 11, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 50 tons, a decrease of 4.7 tons month - on - month. The current inventory is at a low level. From August 18 - 24, the actual arrival was 6.1 tons, and the port reduced inventory. From August 25 - 31, the expected arrival is about 5.4 tons, and the port is expected to slightly reduce inventory in the short term. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 12 days [96] - Ethylene glycol has a strong current situation but weak expectations. The near - end low inventory has little pressure to accumulate, the coal - based load is at a high level. It is expected that existing devices will restart and new ones will be put into production in the fourth quarter. There is support from anti - involution and coal. Pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [101]

【冠通研究】 震荡调整 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 28 日 【策略分析】 今日低开高走，日内震荡偏强。今日尿素现货市场氛围转好，低价拿货情 况有增加。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1650-1690 元/吨，部分工厂价格上调 10 元/吨左右。基本面来看，今日上游工厂装置多发 停车检修，山西潞安、河南心连心及山西兰花均开启检修，日产数据下调至 18 万吨左右，但目前均属于正常计划内检修。需求端，工业需求有韧性，复合肥 工厂开工已至历史同期高位，后续攀升高度有限，近期受阅兵环保限产的影 响，复合肥工厂连续两周出现限产减产情况，开工负荷继续下调。成品库存近 两个月位于五年同期高位水平，本周库存有去化，秋季肥逐渐开始跟进。期库 存继续累库，较上周增加 6.19 万吨，环比增加 6.05%，部分地区有出口订单或 停车检修计划，库存有所去化。今日盘面震荡回调，行情依然位于震荡区间 内，市场暂无明显驱动，向上向下空间均有限，九月初印标结果将对行情造成 一定影响，短期或震荡调整，中期有反弹布空机会。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1737 元/吨低开高走，日内震荡偏强，最终 收 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but individual factors are rated as follows: fundamental analysis is neutral [3]; basis analysis is bullish [3]; inventory analysis is bearish [3]; market trend analysis is neutral [3]; and main position analysis is bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure and refining profit strengthened on August 27 due to stable downstream marine fuel demand, but there are concerns about raw material demand shortage before the autumn refinery maintenance season and weakening power generation demand after summer, which may exacerbate regional supply surplus unless refueling activities pick up before year - end holidays. The expected arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in September will decline month - on - month. Overnight crude oil oscillated at a low level, the domestic market was weak, and the downstream ship refueling market was weak, suppressing prices. In the short term, fuel oil will operate at a low level. The FU2510 will operate in the range of 2810 - 2850, and the LU2511 will operate in the range of 3490 - 3530 [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The FU2510 is expected to operate in the range of 2810 - 2850, and the LU2511 in the range of 3490 - 3530. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure and refining profit strengthened on August 27, but there are supply - related concerns. The expected arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in September will decline month - on - month. Overnight crude oil oscillated at a low level, and the domestic market was weak [3] 2. Multi - Short Attention - Bullish factors: potential escalation of sanctions against Russia [4] - Bearish factors: the optimism of the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4] - Market drivers: the supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamental: Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market strengthened on August 27 due to downstream demand, but there are concerns about supply surplus. The expected arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in September will decline month - on - month; neutral [3] - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 396.54 dollars/ton with a basis of 101 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil is 495.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 145 yuan/ton, spot premium over futures; bullish [3] - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of August 20 was 2391.9 million barrels, an increase of 128 million barrels; bearish [3] - Market trend: prices are above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat; neutral [3] - Main position: high - sulfur main position is short, changing from long to short; low - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing; bearish [3] 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific analysis of spread data, but shows the price changes of the FU and LU main contracts. The FU main contract futures price dropped from 2890 to 2829, a decrease of 61 or 2.11%. The LU main contract futures price dropped from 3537 to 3489, a decrease of 48 or 1.36%. The FU basis increased from 56 to 101, an increase of 45 or 80.58%. The LU basis increased from 104 to 145, an increase of 42 or 40.12% [5] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from June 11 to August 20 shows fluctuations, with an inventory of 2391.9 million barrels in the week of August 20, an increase of 128 million barrels compared to the previous period [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view is presented in the provided text. It mainly offers data on synthetic rubber market indicators such as prices, profits, and spreads. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract on August 27 was 11,710, down 135 from the previous day and 5 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The open interest of the main contract was 39,912, a daily decrease of 3,208 but a weekly increase of 4,221 [3][14][25]. - The trading volume of the main contract was 94,999, down 17,448 from the previous day and 74,065 week - on - week [3][14][25]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price on August 27 was 11,800, down 150 from the previous day but up 200 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The Chuanhua market price was 11,700, with the same daily and weekly changes as the Shandong market [3][14][25]. - The Qilu ex - factory price remained at 12,100 on August 27, unchanged from the previous day but up 200 week - on - week [3][14][25]. Basis and Spread - The butadiene basis on August 27 was 90, down 15 from the previous day but up 205 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The 8 - 9 month spread was 275, up 100 from the previous day [3][14][25]. Processing and Import/Export - The spot processing profit on August 27 was - 90, down 99 from the previous day and 14 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The import profit was - 86,509, down 109 from the previous day and 1,110 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The export profit was - 366, up 126 from the previous day but down 27 week - on - week [3][14][25]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price on August 27 was 9,500, down 50 from the previous day but up 210 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The Jiangsu market price was 9,300, down 200 from the previous day but up 50 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 9,500 on August 27, unchanged from the previous day but up 100 week - on - week [3][14][25]. Processing and Import/Export - The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on August 27 was 206, down 200 from the previous day but up 50 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The import profit was 299, down 196 from the previous day and 44 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The export profit was - 909, up 278 from the previous day and 113 week - on - week [3][14][25]. Downstream Profit - The butadiene styrene production profit on August 27 was 1,075, up 13 from the previous day and 138 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The SBS (791 - H) production profit was 1,090, up 15 from the previous day but down 55 week - on - week [3][14][25]. Spreads Inter - Variety Spreads - The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread on August 27 was 2,900, up 50 from the previous day but down 30 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The 3L - butadiene styrene spread was 2,600, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week [3][14][25]. Intra - Variety Spreads - The butadiene styrene 1502 - 1712 spread on August 27 was 900, down 50 from the previous day and 50 week - on - week [3][14][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuate, closing with a doji candlestick, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with short positions decreasing more significantly. Overall, it was a contracting-volume fluctuation. As prices fluctuated, long positions exited for observation, while short positions exited even more actively. Therefore, the market may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Technically, the price closed above the 60-day moving average, but the support from the moving average was weak. The short-term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the weak zone. The trend indicator declined, with the strength of long positions decreasing and that of short positions increasing, and the power of long and short positions began to stalemate. It is recommended that the Shanghai zinc ZN2510 contract fluctuate and consolidate [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Futures Market Conditions on August 27 - **Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes**: The trading details of zinc futures contracts with different delivery months on August 27, including opening price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading amount, and open interest and its changes, are presented. For example, the 2510 contract had an opening price of 22310, a high of 22425, a low of 22290, and a closing price of 22310, with a trading volume of 114,993 lots and an open interest of 107,827 lots, showing a decrease of 891 lots compared to the previous day [3]. - **Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes**: The prices and price changes of various zinc products in domestic main spot markets on August 27 are provided. For instance, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 16,970 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Aoshang was 22,290 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics**: From August 14 to August 25, the zinc ingot inventory in major domestic markets showed an overall increasing trend. The total inventory on August 25 was 12.48 million tons, an increase of 0.97 million tons compared to August 18 and 0.74 million tons compared to August 21 [5]. - **Futures Exchange Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report**: The warehouse receipt situation of zinc in different regions and warehouses on August 27 is detailed. The total zinc warehouse receipt was 36,213 tons, a decrease of 153 tons compared to the previous day, mainly due to the decrease of 153 tons in the warehouse receipt of Tianjin's Shanggang Yuncang Tianjin [6]. - **LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics**: The inventory situation of LME zinc in Singapore Port on August 27 is shown. The current inventory was 60,025 tons, a decrease of 5500 tons compared to the previous day, with a registered warehouse receipt of 41,775 tons and a cancelled warehouse receipt of 18,250 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 30.40% [8]. - **National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary**: The price information of zinc concentrate in major domestic cities on August 27 is provided, but the specific price data is not detailed in the given text [10]. - **National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes**: The prices and price changes of zinc ingots of different brands and manufacturers on August 27 are presented. For example, the price of 0 zinc ingots from Hunan Weichuan Smelting was 22,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [14]. - **Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025**: In June 2025, the planned production value of refined zinc was 45.97 million tons, and the actual production was 47.18 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 11.67%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.36%, and an increase of 2.63% compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 47.03 million tons [16]. - **Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on August 27**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate in different regions and their price ranges are provided. For example, in the area of Pailie, the processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate was 3700 - 3900 yuan/metal ton, with an average of 3800 yuan/metal ton; the import processing fee for 48% grade zinc concentrate was 75 - 95 US dollars/thousand tons, with an average of 85 US dollars/thousand tons [18]. - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table**: The trading volume, long position, and short position rankings of zinc futures of different futures company members on August 27 are presented. For example, in terms of trading volume, CITIC Futures ranked first with a trading volume of 36,331 lots, an increase of 10,965 lots compared to the previous day; in terms of long positions, CITIC Futures also ranked first with 12,844 lots, a decrease of 1,534 lots compared to the previous day; in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures still ranked first with 13,025 lots, an increase of 801 lots compared to the previous day [20]. Zinc Fundamental Analysis - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: In April 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, and the consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, the global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, and the consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, the global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which was considered bullish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 22,290, and the basis was -20, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 27, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 5500 tons to 60,025 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc warehouse receipt decreased by 153 tons to 36,213 tons compared to the previous day, which was considered bullish [2]. - **Market Trend**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc futures showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average was downward, which was considered bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short positions decreased, which was considered bearish [2]. - **Market Expectation**: The LME inventory and warehouse receipt continued to decrease, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt remained at a high level. It is expected that the Shanghai zinc ZN2510 contract will fluctuate and consolidate [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate continues to decline, and the futures market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties [2][5] - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Risk - takers can try light - position long positions at specific price levels for certain contracts, but should set stop - losses [5] Summary by Related Information Freight Rate Indexes - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% [3] - On August 22, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1035.79 points, down 1.59% from the previous period; the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83%; the US West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% [3] - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; the European route price was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35%; the US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% [3] - On August 22, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1174.87 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8%; the US West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% [3] PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, higher than the forecast of 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8; the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, slightly lower than the forecast of 50.8 and the previous value of 51; the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1 [3] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4] Market and Strategy - On August 27, the main contract 2510 closed at 1316.0, down 0.89%, with a trading volume of 1.80 million lots and an open interest of 5.37 million lots, a decrease of 684 lots from the previous day [5] - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try light - position long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions due to large fluctuations [5] - Long - term strategy: Take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [5] Other Information - Sino - US tariff extension negotiations have no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries [5] - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all these contracts is 100 lots [5]