今日周五（8月22日)亚盘时，黄金价格在3334美元附近徘徊，维持上一交易日的跌势，因俄乌和谈的前 景冲淡了市场的避险情绪。然而，双方在"合法性"和"关键问题"上存在巨大分歧，和谈之路必定漫长且 反复。任何谈判遇阻的消息都可能随时再次点燃避险情绪，为金价提供支撑。鲍威尔潜在继任者布拉德 呼吁今年降息100个基点，并在2026年进一步降息。 【要闻速递】 在美联储的政策动态备受关注之际，其潜在继任者布拉德积极发声，主张今年实施100个基点的降息举 措，且计划于2026年继续推进进一步降息。 摘要今日周五（8月22日)亚盘时，黄金价格在3334美元附近徘徊，维持上一交易日的跌势，因俄乌和谈 的前景冲淡了市场的避险情绪。然而，双方在"合法性"和"关键问题"上存在巨大分歧，和谈之路必定漫 长且反复。任何谈判遇阻的消息都可能随时再次点燃避险情绪，为金价提供支撑。 周三披露的美联储7月会议纪要表明，政策制定者们对当前的劳动力市场及通胀状况表达了深切担忧。 不过，多数官员认为当下并非降息的合适时机。 该会议纪要还深刻揭示了美联储内部成员之间存在的显著分歧。其中，潜在继任者布拉德坚定呼吁今年 降息100个基点，并规划在202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole annual meeting is a significant event for global central banks, with particular focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, which may influence interest rate decisions and set the tone for global markets in the coming year [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Cleveland Fed President Mester stated that inflation issues are not resolved, indicating insufficient reasons for rate cuts at this time [3] - Kansas City Fed President George emphasized that inflation is closer to 3% rather than the target of 2%, warning against premature easing that could alter public inflation expectations [3] - Overall, Fed officials appear cautious, believing it is not yet time to relax monetary policy [3] Group 2: Market Expectations vs. Fed Officials - The market is more optimistic, with nearly 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, and potential for four cumulative cuts over the next year [3] - Analysts caution that market expectations may be overly optimistic, with potential for a "hawkish surprise" if inflation rebounds or political pressures increase [3][4] Group 3: Economic Data and Uncertainty - Recent economic data has been mixed, with Fed officials prioritizing inflation risks, while employment data revisions have strengthened rate cut expectations [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed unexpected strength, complicating the Fed's decision-making process amid concerns over both weak employment and persistent inflation [4] Group 4: Political Pressures - The Fed faces political pressure from the White House, with President Trump criticizing Powell and pushing for changes in the Board of Governors that could influence rate decisions [5] - The independence and credibility of the Fed are under scrutiny due to these political dynamics [5] Group 5: Market Reactions - On August 21, U.S. stock markets declined, indicating investor caution despite expectations for rate cuts, reflecting uncertainty about future economic conditions [5] - The upcoming speech by Powell is critical, as it could lead to rapid market adjustments depending on whether he signals a hawkish or dovish stance [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on industrial products on dips in commodities and stock index futures [4] Core Viewpoints - In July, the global economic data showed resilience. China's official manufacturing PMI declined, but exports increased year - on - year. The money supply exceeded expectations, while financing and loan data were weak. The US non - farm payrolls data in July was below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly [1] - The US has adjusted "reciprocal tariffs", and the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy needs time to fully manifest. The Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance [2] - The manufacturing PMIs in the US and the Eurozone in August exceeded expectations, with Germany's manufacturing showing a strong recovery [2] - Different commodity sectors have different characteristics. The black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products and the stability of agricultural products are worth noting [3] Market Analysis - China's economic data in July: the official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3, non - manufacturing remained in expansion, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, money supply exceeded expectations, but investment data faced pressure. The 30 - year Treasury yield reached a new high since December last year, and the total social power consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [1] - US economic data in July: non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly. The "Big Beautiful" Act may support subsequent consumption [1] - Future outlook: the "reciprocal tariff 2.0" is in effect, and subsequent demand needs attention. There is a divergence between market sentiment and fundamentals, and the volatility risk of commodities should be guarded against [1] Tariff and Trade Agreement - The US has adjusted the "reciprocal tariff" rate. The EU and the US have reached an agreement on a trade deal framework. The EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US agricultural products. The US will impose a maximum tariff rate of 15% on most EU goods [2][6] - The US and China have suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days until November 10. The US has included 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list, and Trump may announce semiconductor tariffs with a rate of up to 300% [2] Commodity Analysis - Black and new energy metal sectors: the black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry is worthy of attention [3] - Non - ferrous sector: supply constraints have not been alleviated [3] - Energy sector: the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases by 548,000 barrels per day in August [3] - Chemical sector: the "anti - involution" space of products such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention [3] - Agricultural products: there is no short - term weather disturbance, and the fluctuation range is relatively limited [3] Other Key Information - The total social power consumption in China in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, breaking through the trillion - kWh mark for the first time globally [1][6] - The yields of China's 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds have risen [1][6] - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most members believed inflation risk exceeded employment risk, and the impact of tariffs needed time to fully manifest [2][6] - Russia and India plan to jointly exploit resources [3][6][7]

Group 1 - The Eurozone private sector showed unexpected vitality in August, with the composite PMI rising to 51.1, the highest in 15 months, and manufacturing PMI breaking the growth line at 50.5, ending a three-year contraction period [1] - The unexpected growth in the Eurozone contrasts with the U.S. economic data, where the composite PMI surged to 55.4, and manufacturing new orders reached the highest growth since early 2022, indicating a structural adjustment and phase recovery in the global economy [1] - Germany's manufacturing sector is nearing the end of a three-year slump, reflecting the effectiveness of companies diversifying their supply chains, particularly in the automotive industry, which is reducing reliance on U.S. exports by incorporating Southeast Asia into production [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economy demonstrated stronger growth, with the composite PMI rising to 55.4, the highest since December of the previous year, and manufacturing PMI reaching 53.3, reversing the contraction seen in July [2] - The strong demand in the U.S. economy is accompanied by inflation risks, as the input cost index rose to 62.3, and the prices of goods and services reached a three-year high, indicating that companies are passing on cost pressures to consumers [2] - The economic structure between the U.S. and Europe shows a stark contrast, with the U.S. benefiting from the Inflation Reduction Act to stimulate domestic manufacturing, while Europe relies on traditional supply chain recovery for moderate growth [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The U.S. economic data shows resilience, but risks in the labor market are also emerging. The path of the Fed's monetary policy remains highly uncertain. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts has slightly cooled, the overall sentiment still leans towards easing. Gold and silver prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the near term [9][10] Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Data**: The preliminary U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The Services PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant rise in manufacturing pushed the Composite PMI to a nine - month high of 55.4 [2] - **Employment Market**: The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [2] - **Monetary Policy**: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she would not support an interest rate cut at the September meeting if a decision were to be made tomorrow. The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the market bets a 75% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and a 25% probability of keeping rates unchanged [2] Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 776.50 yuan/gram and closed at 775.12 yuan/gram, a 0.32% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 776.00 yuan/gram and closed at 776.08 yuan/gram, a 0.12% increase from the afternoon close [3] - **Silver Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,133.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,162.00 yuan/kg, a 1.33% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 311,338 lots, and the open interest was 307,098 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,187 yuan/kg and closed at 9,233 yuan/kg, a 0.77% decrease from the afternoon close [3] U.S. Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 21, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.324%, up 0.78 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.536%, up 0.15 basis points from the previous trading day [4] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volumes - **Gold**: On the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions remained unchanged from the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 165,742 lots, a 21.33% decrease from the previous trading day [5] - **Silver**: On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 492,092 lots, a 38.67% decrease from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 956.77 tons yesterday, a decrease of 1.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,277.52 tons, a decrease of 28.24 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage - **Spot - Futures Spread**: On August 21, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 11.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 865.92 yuan/kg [7] - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE yesterday was approximately 84.60, a 1.00% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 89.73, a 2.34% change from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 19,030 kg, a 36.74% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 275,676 kg, a 43.40% decrease from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 4,582 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 18,510 kg [8] Strategies - **Gold**: It is expected that the gold price will remain in a volatile pattern in the near term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 750 yuan/gram and 790 yuan/gram [9] - **Silver**: The silver price is also expected to be volatile, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,000 yuan/kg and 9,400 yuan/kg [10] - **Arbitrage**: Short the gold - silver ratio when it is high [10] - **Options**: Postpone [10]

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | 工医医院学 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 有色金属数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究员 | | | 方富强 | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 | | | | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | | 2025/08/22 | | 价格指标 | | 现货价格 | 变化 (%) | 15:00期货价格 | 变化（%） | | 图表 | | 制 | | 9576.5 | -0. 47 | 9700. 5 | -0. 05 | | | | | | | | | | | LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | 锌 LME | | 2763 | 0. 18 | 2786 | 0. 78 | | | | (美元/吨) | 铝 | 1929 | -0. 16 | 2574 | 0. 25 | | | | 镍 | | 14780 | -0. 71 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on building steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started shutting down on January 5, and most of the others will shut down around mid - January. Individual mills may shut down after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity moves down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, aluminum prices fluctuated. The market is paying attention to Fed Chairman Powell's speech on Friday to find clues about a possible interest - rate cut next month. New trade tariffs and inflation risks make some policymakers cautious about easing policies [1] - In terms of fundamentals, aluminum production is increasing slightly. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, under the influence of the off - season, terminal and processed material consumption is hard to exceed expectations. The growth of some industries has slowed down, and some export orders have declined. The construction industry is still in a super - seasonal decline [2] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. In some sub - sectors, the operating rate increased, while the recycled aluminum operating rate decreased slightly [2] - It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to recover in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost aluminum foil and aluminum profile demand [2] - On August 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 596,000 tons, down 11,000 tons from Monday and up 8,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - Macro - level interest - rate cut expectations are fluctuating. It is expected to move within a range in the near term, and follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and its actual impact may still put pressure on the upside [3]

Core Insights - Japan's inflation remains stubbornly high, with July's core CPI rising 3.1% year-on-year, above market expectations and the Bank of Japan's 2% target [1][3] - The core inflation slowdown is attributed to a 0.3% decline in energy prices, marking the first drop since March 2024, but underlying inflation pressures persist [1][3] - The "core-core" CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, held steady at a 3.4% year-on-year increase, indicating persistent inflationary trends [1][3] Inflation Dynamics - Rice prices surged by 90.7% year-on-year in July, despite a decrease from June's 100.2% increase, causing widespread dissatisfaction among consumers [4][6] - The rise in rice prices has led to a chain reaction, with processed food prices increasing by 8.3%, the fastest rate since September 2023, while service prices remained stable at 1.5% [4][6] - Rising rents and soaring rice prices are contributing to increased costs in processed foods and dining out, putting political pressure on the government [6][7] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, Japanese government bond yields rose, and market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike by the end of October increased from approximately 42% to 51% [3][7] - Economists suggest that the window for a rate hike is approaching, supported by strong economic growth over five consecutive quarters [7] - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current policy in September but is closely watching the October meeting for potential changes [7]

委员会表示，在本月稍早决定降息时"考虑到了汇率波动、经济活动的疲软以及全球贸易政策变化可能 带来的影响"。 周五（8月22日）亚洲时段，美元兑墨西哥比索震荡走跌，截至发稿前美元兑墨西哥比索汇率报 18.7497，跌幅0.02，墨西哥央行周四公布的会议记录显示，该央行表示将考虑进一步下调指标利率，大 多数成员认为，经济低迷和劳动力市场降温表明通胀将继续降温。 央行在决策会议记录报告中说，"未来管理委员会将考虑进一步下调指标利率，"会议记录表明了墨西哥 央行8月7日决定将利率下调25个基点至2022年中期以来低点7.75%的理由。 大多数管理委员会成员表示，他们预计通胀率将继续下降，并提到劳动力市场疲软以及墨西哥比索相对 于2024年下半年更加坚挺的表现。 墨西哥央行正面临着双重挑战，既要设法抑制通胀，又要通过降息来刺激经济增长。墨西哥总统希恩鲍 姆（Claudia Sheinbaum）表示支持央行的降息措施。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Walmart's CEO Doug McMillon warns that rising tariffs are increasing operational costs, which are expected to persist into the third and fourth quarters, despite efforts to lower product prices [1][3][6] Group 1: Financial Performance - Walmart's Q2 revenue grew by 4.8% to $177.4 billion, exceeding expectations, and the company raised its full-year sales guidance [3] - However, operating profit declined by 8.2% to $7.3 billion, falling short of expectations, leading to a 4.5% drop in stock price, marking the largest single-day decline in over four months [3][6] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The company indicates that the cost of goods is rising weekly due to tariffs, with about one-third of its U.S. products imported from countries like China, Mexico, Vietnam, and India [6] - The same-store inflation rate increased by 1.1% year-over-year, doubling from the previous quarter, although it remains below the overall U.S. inflation rate [6] - Despite some price reductions in food items, the overall grocery inflation rate in the U.S. rose by approximately 1.5%, while prices for clothing and electronics have decreased [6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - McMillon noted that while there hasn't been a drastic change in consumer spending behavior due to tariffs, adjustments are more pronounced among middle- and low-income households compared to high-income households [6]