Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has seen a slight increase alongside long-term U.S. Treasury yields, while G-10 currencies are experiencing narrow fluctuations amid light trading as the year comes to a close [1][8]. Currency Movements - The Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index rose by less than 0.1%, reversing earlier declines during the Asian and London trading sessions [2][9]. - The Euro/USD pair fell by 0.2% to 1.1750 [4][11]. - The GBP/USD pair continued its downward trend in the New York trading session, dropping 0.3% to 1.3468 [7][14]. - The USD/JPY pair increased by 0.2% to 156.45, while the AUD/USD rose by less than 0.1% to 0.6697, outperforming other G-10 currencies against the dollar [7][14]. - The USD/CAD remained stable at 1.3696 [7][14]. Economic Insights - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has declined approximately 8% this year, heading towards its largest annual drop since 2017 [3][10]. - Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, noted that if the dollar strengthens further, it could target levels seen at the beginning of 2023, potentially paving the way for broader strength in regional currencies like the yen and won [3][10]. - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicated that most officials believe further rate cuts would be appropriate if inflation declines as expected over time [3][10]. Options Market Data - DTCC data shows significant option expiry levels at 1.1750 (2.28 billion euros) and 1.1800 (647 million euros) [5][12]. Central Bank Policy - The Swedish central bank's latest policy meeting minutes suggest that officials are confident that maintaining borrowing costs steady over the next year will support economic recovery and stabilize inflation near the 2% target [6][13].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts, with most officials supporting further cuts if inflation trends downward as expected, while some advocate for a pause in rate cuts for a period of time [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Most participants at the meeting believe that if inflation gradually decreases as anticipated, further rate cuts may be appropriate [1][2]. - A minority of participants expressed that a pause in rate cuts might be necessary to assess the impact of recent policy changes on the labor market and economic activity [1][3]. - The minutes indicate that there was significant internal disagreement, with seven officials opposing the decision to cut rates, marking the largest division in 37 years [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The minutes highlight that inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains at a high level, while economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace [2]. - Employment growth has slowed, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased as of September, with rising downside risks to employment noted by participants [2][3]. - Some officials expressed concerns about the potential for inflation to become entrenched, emphasizing the need for confidence in returning inflation to the 2% target [2][4]. Group 3: Risk Management - Most participants believe that lowering rates could help prevent deterioration in the labor market, while acknowledging high inflation risks [4][5]. - The minutes reflect a consensus that stable long-term inflation expectations are crucial for achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate [4][5]. - The decision to initiate the Reserve Management Program (RMP) was based on the assessment that reserve balances had fallen to adequate levels, prompting the purchase of short-term government securities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicate moderate growth in the U.S. real GDP this year, with a cooling labor market and wage growth comparable to the same period last year [1] Economic Growth - Economic activity in the third quarter showed robust performance, but the average growth rate for the first three quarters of the year remains moderate, below previous expectations for 2024 [1] - The anticipated government shutdown is expected to negatively impact short-term GDP [1] Labor Market - The labor market continues to cool, with expectations that the unemployment rate will gradually decline [1] - Participants in the meeting generally believe that risks related to the labor market are skewed to the downside [1] Inflation Outlook - Inflation is expected to face short-term pressure but is projected to return to 2% by 2028, with overall uncertainty remaining high [1] - There is a general consensus among participants that inflation risks are tilted to the upside [1] Future Economic Conditions - It is expected that with improving financial conditions and the gradual reduction of tariff impacts, economic growth will slightly exceed potential levels after 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The discussion on interest rate policy is a key focus of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes [1] - The perspectives on inflation and employment issues are highlighted [1] - The impact of the historically longest U.S. government shutdown is also discussed [1]

The futures on the second to last day of the year are pretty steady, showing minimal declines uh headed for the uh indexes after a modest drop yesterday. Joining us now is Ross Mayfield, Bayard investment strategist. Ross, uh good morning.So, we're, you know, have a strong year. Uh S&P up 17 plus% on a price basis in 2025, although kind of coasting into the close here. We're pretty much flat with levels we got to two months ago.A lot of rotation underneath. What's the setup for 2026. >> Yeah, I think the bi ...

Group 1 - The number of bankruptcy filings by U.S. companies has surged to the highest level in 15 years, with at least 717 companies filing for bankruptcy by the end of November, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data [1][7] - The increase in bankruptcies is most pronounced in the industrial sector, including manufacturing, construction, and transportation, heavily impacted by fluctuating U.S. trade policies and tariffs [1][7] - Over 70,000 jobs were cut in the U.S. manufacturing sector within a year, highlighting the severe impact of these economic pressures [7] Group 2 - Inflation and rising interest rates are cited as significant factors contributing to the financial distress of many companies, alongside the disruptive effects of U.S. trade policies on supply chains and costs [1][7] - There is a notable increase in bankruptcies among large companies, with 17 bankruptcy cases involving firms with assets exceeding $1 billion reported in the first half of 2025, marking the highest number since 2020 [7] - Companies are struggling to pass on increased costs to consumers due to fears of losing customers, leading to a market shakeout where weaker firms may be eliminated [7]

12月30日，ATFX：在 2025 年年末阶段，全球金融市场的注意力重新集中到美联储政策信号之上。本周 即将公布的 FOMC 会议纪要，正值黄金价格刷新历史高位之后，成为左右短线情绪与趋势延续性的关 键变量。在通胀回落、就业走弱与政策分歧加剧的背景下，市场试图从纪要细节中判断，美联储当前 的"观望姿态"究竟意味着降息周期接近尾声，还是为后续进一步宽松保留空间。 ▲ATFX图 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 从技术结构看，黄金整体仍运行在清晰的中期上升趋势中。图表显示，金价自 11 月以来沿着上升趋势 线稳步抬升，前期下行趋势线已被有效突破并转化为中期结构支撑，确认趋势由整理转为单边上行。近 期金价在快速拉升后出现剧烈回调，但回落并未破坏上升趋势线，显示抛压更多来自高位获利了结，而 非趋势性反转。目前市场正围绕关键支撑区间反复博弈。 | 时间 | 国家地区 | 世点 | 重要性 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Company of the company of the county | | *** | ★★★ | 美联储公布货币改算会议纪委。 | | 从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has undergone a cyclical rise, with certain sectors and styles remaining undervalued, making Chinese assets attractive for global allocation in 2026. Key investment opportunities are identified in four main areas: globally competitive manufacturing leaders, industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, sectors with low valuations and potential for significant fundamental changes, and long-term high-return industries with mismatched valuations [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The current A-share market is experiencing active trading volumes and turnover rates, but there is a notable differentiation among stocks, presenting both opportunities and risks. Some stocks are becoming expensive, while others, particularly in real estate and domestic demand, remain undervalued [3]. - The investment strategy for equities should focus on safety margins and certainty, avoiding blind speculation on volatility. The U.S. economy is not performing well, and potential monetary easing could occur in response to the upcoming mid-term elections, which may influence domestic fiscal policies [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Four key investment opportunities for 2026 are highlighted: 1. Long-term focus on globally competitive manufacturing leaders, including sectors like power equipment, batteries, electric vehicles, home appliances, chemicals, and machinery. Observations from Southeast Asia indicate a significant gap in infrastructure and supply chains compared to China, reinforcing confidence in China's manufacturing competitiveness [5]. 2. Industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, such as real estate, aquaculture, chemicals, and light industry, are expected to enhance their global market positions and profitability [5]. 3. Sectors with low valuations and potential for substantial fundamental changes, such as chemicals, are noted for their past performance shifts, similar to coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals in previous years [6]. 4. Long-term high-return industries with severe valuation mismatches, including airport and airline services, insurance, and non-liquor food sectors, are highlighted for their high return on equity (ROE) despite low stock attention [6]. Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include persistent inflation and sector-specific risks. The undervaluation of the RMB may pressure export industries, and inflation could pose significant risks to the stock market in the latter half of the year. Additionally, long-term risks associated with AI, including its impact on labor and technological competition, warrant attention [6].

▲ATFX图 从技术结构看，黄金整体仍运行在清晰的中期上升趋势中。图表显示，金价自 11 月以来沿着上升趋势线稳步抬升，前期下行趋势线已被有效突破并转化 为中期结构支撑，确认趋势由整理转为单边上行。近期金价在快速拉升后出现剧烈回调，但回落并未破坏上升趋势线，显示抛压更多来自高位获利了结， 而非趋势性反转。目前市场正围绕关键支撑区间反复博弈。 ATFX：在 2025 年年末阶段，全球金融市场的注意力重新集中到美联储政策信号之上。本周即将公布的 FOMC 会议纪要，正值黄金价格刷新历史高位之 后，成为左右短线情绪与趋势延续性的关键变量。在通胀回落、就业走弱与政策分歧加剧的背景下，市场试图从纪要细节中判断，美联储当前的"观望姿 态"究竟意味着降息周期接近尾声，还是为后续进一步宽松保留空间。 | ▲ATFX图 | | --- | 从宏观环境看，美国经济正在释放出明显的后周期特征。通胀已较年中显著降温，但仍未完全回到美联储 2% 的目标区间。核心 PCE 维持在约 2.8%，11 月 CPI 同比约 2.7%，显示去通胀进程正在推进，但服务业通胀的黏性依旧存在，使政策层对金融条件过早放松保持谨慎。与此同时，就业市场的降 ...

第二个主题是特朗普试图稳定民心，向民众描绘经济回暖的前景。他在讲话中宣称"通胀已经停止"，并 承诺2026年美国经济将大幅好转，商品价格会下降，贷款利率会进一步降低，政府还将公布一项历史上 最具魄力的住房改革计划。同时，他还将经济复苏与大规模驱逐移民的政策挂钩，认为移民的撤离将为 美国人创造更多的就业和住房机会。然而，特朗普的这些言论很快引发了质疑。根据《纽约时报》记者 Katie Rogers的评论，这场讲话让事实核查员们忙得不可开交。根据12月19日美国劳工统计局的数据， 尽管通胀增长有所放缓，但美国的CPI同比增长依然达到2.7%，远没有达到"通胀停止"的标准。而特朗 普关于商品价格下跌和贷款利率降低的承诺，目前也没有任何政府文件作为佐证，更多的是一种前瞻性 的口头承诺。 哈喽，大家好！今天小墨要分析一下特朗普最近全国讲话风格的巨大变化，探讨其中的内容争议以及背 后的现实压力。 大家熟悉特朗普的人都知道，他的演讲风格向来自由奔放、充满激情。无论是竞选集 会，还是其他公开场合，他总是随性地脱稿发言，偶尔还会说出一些让人意外的话。不过，12月17日的 全国电视讲话却让人大吃一惊——这位政坛"网红"竟然做出了 ...