Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, marking a four-day winning streak, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.67%, the S&P 500 up 0.69%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.82% [1] - U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, with shortened trading hours on Friday [1] Employment Data and Interest Rate Expectations - The latest employment data from the U.S. Labor Department showed initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, below the market expectation of 225,000 [3] - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicated resilient high-end consumer spending, but overall consumer spending is declining [3] - Market reassessment of monetary policy led to an 83.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December, up from previous forecasts [3] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Market fear has significantly eased, with the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) dropping approximately 35% over four days, the largest decline since mid-April [4] - Institutional investors are buying on dips, particularly in non-essential consumer goods and healthcare sectors, while technology sector ETFs are seeing significant outflows [4] Technology Sector Trends and Analyst Views - The technology sector is experiencing a mix of divergence and rebound, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 2.76% and all 30 component stocks gaining [5] - Nvidia's stock rose 1.37%, while Oracle's stock rebounded over 4% [5] - Analysts from Bank of America and Deutsche Bank maintain "buy" ratings on Nvidia and Oracle, respectively, citing long-term market dominance and overreaction to recent sell-offs [5][6] Corporate Earnings Performance - Dell Technologies reported a third-quarter revenue increase of 11% year-over-year to $27.005 billion, a record high [7] - Li Auto's third-quarter revenue fell 36.2% year-over-year to 27.4 billion yuan, with a net loss of 624 million yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [7]

美联储降息预期持续升温。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 英国富时100 | 9691.58 c | 82.05 | 0.85% | | 法国CAC40 | 8096.43 c | 70.63 | 0.88% | | 德国DAX | 23695.23 c | 230.60 | 0.98% | | 意大利富时MIB | 43130.32 c | 431.66 | 1.01% | | 欧元区STOXX5I | 5655.58 c | 81.67 | 1.47% | 周三国际金价走高，现货黄金站上4160美元/盎司。 降息预期升温 美联储褐皮书发布 当地时间11月26日，美股三大指数收高。道指涨314.67点，涨幅为0.67%，报47427.12点；纳指涨189.10 点，涨幅为0.82%，报23214.69点；标普500指数涨46.73点，涨幅为0.69%，报6812.61点。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47427.12 | 23214.69 | 6812.61 | | 314.6 ...

中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数微跌0.03%。热门中概股多数收升，唯品会涨2.54%，拼多多涨 1.58%，京东涨0.96%，理想汽车涨0.6%，新东方涨0.39%，阿里巴巴涨0.38%。禾赛跌7.37%，腾讯音乐 跌2.33%，小鹏汽车跌2.22%，百度跌1.31%，蔚来跌0.73%。 美股周三高开高走，三大指数均连涨四日，本周均有望录得较大涨幅。美国上周首次申请失业救济人数 低于预期。美联储褐皮书显示近几周美国整体消费者支出进一步下滑。延迟发布的经济数据强化了降息 预期，叠加美联储官员密集释放鸽派信号及潜在"鸽派"主席人选浮现，市场风险偏好显著升温。截至收 盘，道琼斯指数涨0.67%，标普500指数涨0.69%，纳斯达克综合指数涨0.82%。 科技股多数上涨，甲骨文涨超4%，AMD涨超3%，英伟达、特斯拉、奈飞、微软涨超1%。博通涨超 3%，创历史新高。费城半导体指数涨2.76%，30只成分股全线收涨。泰瑞达涨6.98%，迈威尔科技涨 5.14%，AMD涨3.93%，阿斯麦涨3.76%，美光科技涨2.55%。 纽约商品交易所WTI原油期货当月连续合约上涨0.60美元，收于每桶58.55美元，涨幅为1.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1. Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes | Asset Class | Sub - variety | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Commodities | Iron ore | 785.50 | 1.68% | | | Corn | 2195.00 | 0.46% | | | Rebar | 3057.00 | 0.13% | | | PTA | 4666.00 | - 0.72% | | | Palm oil | 8550.00 | - 1.09% | | | Polysilicon | 53360.00 | - 1.27% | | | Copper | 85660.00 | - 1.43% | | | Crude oil | 447.40 | - 2.19% | | | Aluminum | 21340.00 | - 2.29% | | | Methanol | 2004.00 | - 2.48% | | | Soybean meal | 3012.00 | - 2.59% | | | Gold | 926.94 | - 2.75% | | | Ethylene glycol | 3808.00 | - 2.91% | | | PVC | 4456.00 | - 3.30% | | | Live pigs | 11350.00 | - 3.61% | | | Glass | 987.00 | - 4.36% | | | Silver | 11680.00 | - 5.62% | | | Coking coal | 1103.00 | - 7.47% | 2.2. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes | Stock Index | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai 50 | 2955.85 | - 2.72% | | CSI 300 | 4453.61 | - 3.77% | | CSI 500 | 6817.41 | - 5.78% | | FTSE 100 | 9539.71 | - 1.64% | | S&P 500 | 6602.99 | - 1.95% | | France CAC40 | 7982.65 | - 2.29% | | NASDAQ Index | 22273.08 | - 2.74% | | Nikkei 225 | 48625.88 | - 3.48% | | Hang Seng Index | 25220.02 | - 5.09% | 2.3. Bonds and Weekly Changes | Bond | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.59 | + 0.62bp | | 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.82 | + 0.14bp | | 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.43 | - 0.45bp | 2.4. Foreign Exchange and Weekly Changes | Foreign Exchange | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 100.15 | + 0.87% | | US Dollar Intermediate Price | 7.09 | + 0.07% | | Euro - US Dollar | 1.15 | - 0.93% | [2] 3. Commodity Views 3.1. Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy View: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Nvidia's better - than - expected performance eases AI bubble concerns; Fed officials' remarks boost rate - cut expectations; loose expectations remain, and the stock index may stage a phased recovery; significant short - term decline with strong downside support. - Bearish Logic: Fed's hawkish stance causes liquidity expectations to fluctuate; rising US Dollar Index suppresses global risk appetite; AI bubble controversy affects tech stocks; fading speculative sentiment leads to reduced trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy View: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Weak fundamental data and insufficient domestic demand support loose expectations; central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading signals policy support; medium - to - long - term allocation demand pulls interest rates down; limited incremental policies at the end of the year. - Bearish Logic: Low expectation of further rate cuts, lack of upward momentum; tight external market liquidity affects the bond market; new redemption rules suppress the bond market, especially 30 - year bonds [4]. 3.2. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: OPEC + suspends production increase, tightening supply expectations; northern hemisphere's heating season boosts demand; geopolitical risks in South America remain; short - term disruption of Libyan exports; Fed officials' calming remarks boost rate - cut expectations; potential stabilization after short - term oversold. - Bearish Logic: Persistent global supply surplus and inventory accumulation; fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations and tight liquidity; overall slowdown in fourth - quarter demand; significant decline in geopolitical risks [5]. 3.3. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Malaysia enters the production - reduction season, easing supply pressure; India's import profit recovery may increase procurement; Indonesia's B50 policy boosts long - term biodiesel demand; widening international soybean - palm oil price difference makes palm oil more cost - effective. - Bearish Logic: US cancellation of relevant energy offices is negative for biodiesel policies; weak Malaysian palm oil exports in November; large domestic inventory accumulation; winter consumption off - season and expected inventory build - up [5]. 3.4. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Low inventory provides price support; limited supply increase expected in 2026, maintaining a tight supply - demand balance; emerging sectors like energy storage drive long - term aluminum consumption. - Bearish Logic: AI bubble concerns affect metal performance; cooling Fed rate - cut expectations pressure metal prices; potential decline in photovoltaic production may suppress aluminum consumption; high prices squeeze processing profits; industry off - season affects demand and开工 [6]. 3.5. Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Potential winter maintenance in Iran may reduce imports; attention to year - end maintenance of southwest gas - based producers; increased losses in coal - to - methanol production may force a reduction in operating loads; low valuation limits downside space. - Bearish Logic: Weakening macro - drivers lead to trading of weak fundamentals; high import arrivals and expected port inventory build - up; compressed MTO profits reduce methanol procurement; weakening coal - based cost support [6]. 3.6. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy View: 2 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Fed officials' dovish signals boost rate - cut expectations; geopolitical and policy uncertainties increase gold's safe - haven appeal; US debt credit issues weaken long - term US dollar confidence; global central banks' continuous gold purchases support long - term demand. - Bearish Logic: Large internal differences within the Fed lead to unclear policy guidance; better - than - expected non - farm payrolls strengthen the hawkish stance; improving US dollar liquidity may increase market risk appetite [7]. 3.7. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Tight supply expectations of Australian coal may support import costs; potential decline in production after year - end production targets are met; increased demand from winter heating. - Bearish Logic: Supply - guarantee policies make the market cautious; increased steel mill losses lead to reduced hot metal production; significant increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance; more online auction failures indicate weak demand; high coking coal inventory in coke enterprises reduces restocking willingness [7].

11月26日金价先抑后扬，多个金店金饰价格涨到1316元/克附近，2025年11月26日，各大品牌黄金零售 价格上涨，据金投网统计，目前是周生生价格最高，为1316元/克（工费另计），菜百首饰黄金价格最 低，为1280元/克（工费另计），投资金条价格每克965-1004元左右，白银价格11.87元/克。 尽管仍有"鹰派"人士担忧通胀顽固，目前通胀率仍高于2%的目标水平，摩根士丹利和摩根大通等机构 也并未完全确信降息的必要性，但市场的多头情绪依然高涨。美债净多头头寸已达到15年来的最高水 平，显示出投资者对降息前景的强烈信心。 此外，一份延迟一个多月发布的PPI数据也在此时意外亮相，为市场增添了新的变数。核心PPI涨幅创下 自去年7月以来的新低，虽然其对货币政策的影响有限，但有助于市场更准确地估算美联储最为关注的 PCE通胀指数。有预测认为，9月的核心PCE可能降至2.8%，这无疑为降息支持者提供了更多的依据。 然而，值得注意的是，当美联储在12月召开会议时，他们将面临数据滞后的挑战。最新的通胀数据将滞 后近三个月，而10月的就业数据则需等到会议结束后才能获得。这意味着，美联储在做出决策时，将不 得不依靠相对陈 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the market is experiencing a bullish trend due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influenced by lower-than-expected U.S. consumer data and potential dovish candidates for the Fed chair position [1][2][5] - U.S. stock index futures are collectively rising, with the S&P 500 futures up by 0.36%, Nasdaq 100 futures up over 0.5%, and Dow Jones futures up over 0.2% [5] - The dollar index has decreased by nearly 0.2%, falling below the 100 mark, while risk assets are gaining traction due to the Fed's dovish signals [2][5] Group 2 - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has increased by 2 basis points to 4.01%, while Japanese 10-year bond yields have risen to 1.815% amid interest rate hike expectations [5] - Gold prices have risen by 0.5% to $4151.21 per ounce, supported by both the expectation of rate cuts and the uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation [10][11] - Bitcoin has also seen an increase of 0.7%, reaching $87647.35, reflecting a broader recovery in cryptocurrency markets [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent market adjustments in AI technology stocks are attributed to tightening liquidity in the U.S. and a decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a shift in global risk appetite towards safer assets. However, the narrative around AI is not over but accelerating, with expectations of a new market rally once liquidity issues are resolved [1][20]. Market Conditions - The tightening of market liquidity has raised concerns about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, with the probability of a cut now at approximately 85% [4][6]. - The recent downturn in U.S. stocks coincided with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, while the subsequent dovish comments led to a rebound in AI stocks [5][8]. AI Sector Dynamics - The market's fears of an AI bubble may be unfounded, as competition in AI models remains intense, with companies like Google and Anthropic continuously innovating [14]. - Google's recent launch of the Gemini 3 model has sparked significant interest, with its stock rising over 13%, indicating substantial growth potential in AI valuations [14][16]. Performance of Key Companies - Tencent reported a 21% year-on-year increase in advertising revenue, driven by AI-enhanced targeting and increased ad loads [17]. - Alibaba's cloud division also saw a 34% year-on-year revenue growth, with AI-related products experiencing triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [18]. Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) is highlighted as a strategic investment option, focusing on AI and semiconductor sectors, with a significant concentration in leading companies like Alibaba and Tencent [21][25]. - The ETF has shown strong performance, with a 47% increase over the past year, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [24]. Conclusion - The current adjustments in Hong Kong's tech stocks are primarily influenced by short-term liquidity constraints, but once these factors are alleviated, a strong performance in the tech sector is anticipated [20].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices continued to rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.69%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.87%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index gaining 1.2% [2] - The total market turnover reached HKD 231.1485 billion, with short-selling amounting to HKD 44.977 billion, representing 21.97% of the total turnover [2] - Northbound trading saw a net inflow of HKD 11.166 billion, with Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Ganfeng Lithium being the most actively bought stocks [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology sector led the gains, with notable increases in stocks such as 6.03% for Wanguo Data, 5.22% for Bilibili, and 4.56% for Baidu [3] - Xiaomi's stock rose by 4.35%, supported by an increase in shareholding by its founder Lei Jun to 23.26% [3] - Apple-related stocks also performed well, with significant gains for companies like GoerTek and Lens Technology [3] Group 3: AI Industry Developments - Google launched the Gemini 3 series, which significantly outperformed previous models in various tasks, achieving nearly double the processing speed and supporting up to 2 million tokens for context [7] - Alibaba introduced the Qianwen App, a C-end AI assistant that integrates various services within its ecosystem, achieving over 10 million downloads in its first week [8] - OpenAI released ChatGPT 5.1, which has seen a surge in active users, with projected revenues for 2025 expected to exceed USD 20 billion, a 54% increase from previous forecasts [9] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the development of C-end ChatBot/Agent products by internet companies, highlighting the potential impact on user engagement and consumption habits [10] - The performance improvements in foundational models like Gemini 3 and ChatGPT 5.1 validate the ongoing demand for AI technologies, supporting investment in this sector [10] - Attention is drawn to Alibaba's advantages in model and cloud services, particularly in expanding its B-end customer base and enhancing its commercial ecosystem [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance of gold ETFs, indicating a 0.37% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains, with the latest price at 9.03 yuan and a 2.64% increase over the past week [3] - The liquidity of the gold ETF is noted, with a turnover of 1.45% and a transaction volume of 5.76 billion yuan, while the average daily transaction volume over the past month is 15.01 billion yuan [3] - Spot gold prices fell by 0.14% to $4130.59 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.81% to $4127.20 per ounce, reflecting market fluctuations [3] Group 2 - CITIC Securities points out a decrease in VIX for gold, silver, and copper, while the VIX for crude oil has increased, suggesting a long-term bullish outlook on gold due to weak economic conditions and rising geopolitical threats [4] - Historical data shows a negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index, as well as between gold and US real interest rates, with recent increases in both the dollar index and real interest rates [4] - The latest share count for the gold ETF reached 4.394 billion, a one-month high, with a net inflow of 1.107 billion yuan over the past week, averaging 158 million yuan per day [4]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.15%. Positive progress in US-Ukraine peace talks led to a decline in geopolitical risks and oil prices. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward driver of oil prices remains. The near-term risk is whether Russia can accept the latest version of the peace plan [2]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals oscillated. The US retail sales month-on-month rate in September was 0.2%, lower than expected and the previous value. PPI was basically in line with expectations. There is strong uncertainty in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices fluctuated greatly. The US ADP employment report showed a weak labor market. The probability of an interest rate cut in December is expected to rise above 80%. US copper exchange inventories have reached a record high. Codelco's premium for long-term refined copper contracts to East Asia is high. Pay attention to the increase in positions of Shanghai copper and the performance of the MA40 moving average after taking profits on previous long positions [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly. After the price correction, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices. Demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The macro sentiment has been fluctuating recently, and the industrial contradictions are limited. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating and adjusting after breaking below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, with support around 21,100 yuan [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remains at 20,700 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is still unclear. Industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts are at high levels, and cast aluminum alloy continues to fluctuate with aluminum prices [6]. Alumina - Alumina operating capacity is at a historical high, and industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts are rising. The supply surplus pattern is hard to change. Before large-scale production cuts occur, alumina will mainly operate weakly [7]. Zinc - Overseas funds have a strong control over the market. LME zinc warehouse receipts increased slightly to 48,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spot premium is as high as $120.77/ton. The domestic zinc mine supply is tightening, and the TC of domestic and overseas mines has been lowered. The bottom support of Shanghai zinc is strong, but the domestic demand outlook is under pressure. In the short term, there is no clear directional signal, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Lead - LME lead inventories are at a high level of 265,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month discount is $35.57/ton. The domestic fundamentals are neutral, and the trading sentiment of funds is weak. Track the dynamics of smelters and wait for low - buying opportunities [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The stainless steel cost support continues to decline. Although Shanghai nickel inventory has decreased slightly, the short - term contradiction lies in the macro level. Short on rebounds [10]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices oscillated at high levels. The short - term upward exploration sentiment of domestic and international tin prices remains. Short at high levels, holding short positions near 298,000 yuan [11]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price rebounded, and the market trading was active. The market total inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 118,000 tons. The futures price oscillates violently at high levels, and risk control should be the priority [12]. Industrial Silicon - The weekly operating rates of Xinjiang and Southwest production areas remained flat. The demand reduction plan of the silicone industry has a relatively limited impact on the overall supply - demand pattern. In the short term, industrial silicon futures will continue to oscillate [13]. Polysilicon - The spot price of N - type polysilicon feedstock remains in the narrow range of 49,600 - 54,900 yuan/ton. The short - term futures price is affected by both the "anti - involution" sentiment and its own fundamentals and will continue to oscillate [14]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - trading steel prices fell. The downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and steel mills continue to suffer losses. The supply pressure will gradually ease. The domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The spot price is relatively firm recently, and the futures price has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but the weak demand restricts the upside space [15]. Iron Ore - The iron ore overnight futures oscillated. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is in a seasonal decline trend. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [16]. Coke - The intraday price oscillated. The coking profit is average, and the daily production is slightly decreasing. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures price may oscillate weakly [17]. Coking Coal - The intraday price oscillated weakly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly. The downstream demand has some resilience, and the steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures price may oscillate weakly [18]. Manganese Silicon - The intraday price oscillated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and chemical coke prices. The silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. The bottom support expectation has shifted downwards [19]. Silicon Iron - The intraday price oscillated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and blue carbon prices. The overall demand still has some resilience. The supply of silicon iron remains at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The possibility of resuming navigation in the Red Sea is increasing. Once new ships resume navigation, the far - month contracts will be under great pressure due to the significant surplus of shipping capacity. If the cargo volume continues to recover, there may be a price increase again in late December or early January [21]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline in international oil prices dragged down fuel oil prices overnight. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline, but it will still be supported by supply fluctuations in the short term. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is still abundant recently, and it is expected to weaken [22]. Asphalt - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening rule, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish for asphalt [23]. Group 4: Chemical Products Urea - The spot price of urea in the "Four Provinces" is stable with a slight decline, while the price in the Northeast continues to rise. The supply is abundant. The domestic oversupply pattern is expected to continue, and the price may return to a stalemate after the decline [24]. Methanol - The methanol futures price adjusted narrowly. The bullish expectation of overseas plant production cuts is gradually being realized, and the methanol valuation is low. However, the reality is still weak, and attention should be paid to the reduction intensity and duration of supply and market sentiment changes [25]. Pure Benzene - The domestic night - trading external crude oil price plummeted, and pure benzene operated weakly. The domestic arrival expectation is high, and the downstream demand is decreasing. Adopt the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [26]. Styrene - The output of styrene factories is expected to decrease slightly, and the downstream demand remains good. The supply - demand balance is tight, and the total inventory continues to decline, which supports the styrene price [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The propylene market lacks news guidance. The supply pressure of polyethylene increases. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly. The demand side is affected by the weak raw material prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is limited [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC oscillated. The supply of PVC is high, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to cost - end changes. Caustic soda oscillated. The supply is under high pressure, and the downstream demand is insufficient. Caustic soda operates weakly [29]. PX and PTA - The short - term supply - demand of PX weakens, but it is expected to be strong in the medium term. PTA's processing margin is low, and the inventory accumulation expectation eases. Before the Spring Festival, it follows the cost - driven logic [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased. There is a short - term rebound expectation, but the inventory will accumulate around the Spring Festival, and the medium - term rebound space is limited [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - chip demand fades, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity. It is mainly cost - driven [32]. Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The glass intraday price oscillated. The profit is narrowing, and the cold - repair speed is accelerating. The demand is insufficient. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [33]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the Thai raw material market price decreased. The demand continues to weaken, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and the inventory is increasing. RU is relatively strong, NR and BR are under observation, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [34]. Soda Ash - The soda ash intraday price was weak. The industry continues to destock. The short - term focus is on the upstream cost fluctuations, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus. Pay attention to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [35]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean production may be affected by the La Nina phenomenon. Wait for the end of the callback and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil continues to decline weakly, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is widening. The short - term palm oil supply - demand is weaker, and it is in the process of finding the bottom [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - With the arrival of Australian rapeseed in China, the market focuses on customs clearance, pressing yield, and policy details. The domestic rapeseed sector is recommended to be observed in the short term [38]. Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans fluctuate repeatedly. The policy side is still conducting auctions. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight. US soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [39]. Corn - The night - trading corn futures increased in positions and prices. The market is divided on the new - season corn output. The downstream corn inventory is very low. Pay attention to the replenishment situation after the price increase this week. Wait for the opportunity to short on highs [40]. Pig - The number of fertile sows decreased in October 2025. The spot pig price continues to decline weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing next year [41]. Egg - The number of newly - opened laying hens will start to decline continuously from around December. The supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to gradually ease in the medium - term. In the short term, it will still focus on the convergence of the futures - spot price difference [42]. Cotton - US cotton rose slightly. The domestic cotton spot sales basis is stable. The new - cotton cost supports the price but also limits the upside. The cotton commercial inventory is not high, and the sales progress is fast. The pure - cotton yarn market trading is weak. Temporarily observe [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The international market supply is relatively abundant, and US sugar faces upward pressure. In China, the market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate. The production expectation of Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is relatively good [44]. Apple - The futures price oscillates at a high level. The spot price is strong. The short - term price trend is strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the far - month contracts may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [45]. Wood - The futures price oscillates. The low inventory supports the price. Temporarily observe [46]. Pulp - The pulp futures price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory has increased continuously, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. Temporarily observe [46]. Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares rose strongly yesterday, and all major futures index contracts rose. The macro - liquidity suppression has temporarily eased, and risk assets have a corrective rebound. The market currently focuses on the interaction between geopolitical situations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [47]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the market trading became冷清. Policy games and institutional behaviors are still key variables. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the range. Operate with caution [48].