Real Estate Industry - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, divided into three phases: housing transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [3] - The core point for entering a positive cycle is the upward shift in housing price expectations due to changes in supply and demand structure, which should be a key signal for market observation [3] - Policy measures need to be more decisive to facilitate stabilization, focusing on adjusting supply and demand structures and mitigating risks from enterprises [3] - The probability of a "medium policy" scenario for the real estate fundamentals in 2025 is high, with sales performance potentially exceeding expectations due to the prolonged effects of the 926 policy [3] - A recovery in total housing sales to historically reasonable levels could lead to significant upward potential, with new housing transaction volumes likely to see greater recovery [3] Strategy - The A-share market has shown signs of improvement in early 2025, but external uncertainties are rising, impacting market dynamics [8] - The expected market rhythm for the second half of 2025 is "steady first, then rise," with upward potential dependent on comprehensive policy support [9] - Investment focus should be on certainty in uncertain environments, including opportunities from capacity cycles, high-growth sectors with low correlation to economic cycles, and dividend-paying sectors [9] Macroeconomy - The GDP growth rate has improved while prices remain weak, indicating a widening demand gap due to restrained policy measures [18] - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is expected to continue narrowing, contributing to a "quasi-balance" recovery [18] - The core CPI inflation is anticipated to improve slightly in the second half of the year, but overall inflation is expected to remain weak [18] New Consumption Trends - Despite overall consumption being insufficient, new consumption trends are emerging, characterized by a shift towards quality and rational spending [23] - The Z generation is becoming a key driver of the new consumption wave, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [23] - The potential for consumption in lower-tier cities is increasing as the drag from real estate weakens [23]

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 房地产 Industry 2025下半年展望 | 房地产：信心、耐心与决心 我们认为房地产市场"止跌回稳"是一个循序渐进的过程，可大体分为三个阶段，分别对应"住房交易量"、"房价"、"房地产投资"三类指标的企稳回 升；其中，步入正循环的核心点是供需结构改变带来的房价预期向上，或应成为市场耐心跟踪关注的关键转折信号。政策端促成"止跌回稳"仍需更大 决心，推进实体市场供需结构调整的措施落地和防范化解企业端衍生风险的措施补充是短期关键。我们此前在2025年度策略《 房地产：迈向止跌回 稳 》中提出三种政策强度情景；考虑到年初以来政策进展和市场表现、房地产政策约束条件的突破仍须时间、市场供需结构较历史上景气周期仍有 差距，我们认为对于房地产基本面磨底期的持续时长做充分估计，2025年演绎"中政策"情景的概率较大，其中仅销量表现由于926政策效果持续时长 超预期或略好于"中政策"情景。而一旦供需结构调整带动价格预期转为积极，我们认为总住房销量修复至历史合理水平对应的上行空间十分可观， 一、二手房占比结构的再平衡也意味着新房交易量的修复空间可能更大，届 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The June USDA cotton monthly report is bullish, but the new - year global supply remains relatively loose, and international cotton prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels. The current U.S. cotton is in the early growth stage with normal weather, and the subsequent weather conditions need to be continuously monitored. The performance of U.S. cotton demand is still weak, especially the new - year signing is still cautious, and the impact of Sino - U.S. relations on the new - year demand for U.S. cotton is significant [1][2] Summary by Related Content 2025/26 Annual Supply - Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: Global cotton production in 25/26 decreased by 178,000 tons month - on - month. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 6.532 million tons, while India's production decreased by 217,000 tons, the U.S. decreased by 109,000 tons, and Pakistan decreased by 65,000 tons. After the reduction in U.S. cotton production, it has reached a multi - year low. The harvested area was adjusted from 8.37 million acres to 8.19 million acres, and the yield per acre dropped from 832 pounds/acre to 820 pounds/acre [1] - **Consumption**: Global consumption in 25/26 decreased by 70,000 tons month - on - month. China's consumption remained unchanged, while India decreased by 109,000 tons, Bangladesh decreased by 22,000 tons, and Turkey decreased by 44,000 tons. Overall, global consumption is stable, but there are still many global trade conflicts [1] - **Imports**: Global cotton imports in 25/26 decreased by 1,000 tons month - on - month. Bangladesh, China, and Turkey reduced their imports by 22,000 tons, 109,000 tons, and 44,000 tons respectively, while Pakistan increased its imports by 65,000 tons. China ranks third in annual imports, lower than Bangladesh and Vietnam [2] - **Exports**: Brazil's exports increased by 65,000 tons, Australia's exports increased by 22,000 tons, and India's exports decreased by 109,000 tons [2] - **Ending Stocks**: Global ending stocks in 25/26 decreased by 344,000 tons month - on - month. China's ending stocks remained unchanged, while India, the U.S., Brazil, and Australia had changes of - 65,000 tons, - 196,000 tons, - 87,000 tons, and + 22,000 tons respectively. After the adjustment in the June report, the 25/26 global ending stocks are 107,000 tons lower than the 24/25 level [2] Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending stocks of major cotton - producing and consuming countries from 2021/22 to 2025/26 - 6 months, as well as the monthly and annual changes [4]

齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点张荐博 6月13日，淄博市政府新闻办公室组织召开新闻发布会，邀请淄博市卫生健康委主要负责人向社会发布 淄博市无偿献血及血液保障有关情况并回答记者提问。 随着人口老龄化等因素影响，血液供应出现持续的紧平衡状况，淄博市是如何看待这个问题并采取何种 措施去解决？ 强化临床输血管理和血液供应调配机制。在全市医疗卫生机构深入贯彻临床用血管理规范，推广输血新 技术，加强供血和输血的质量控制，推进科学用血。建立血液库存监测预警机制，及时发现危急值，采 取果断措施，确保库存量保持在安全可控水平。 对此，淄博市卫生健康委副主任、二级调研员刘观湘做回答。 条块结合，强化团体献血补充作用。积极协调驻淄部队、退役军人、教育、国资委、烟草、公益组织等 部门单位，以系统发动方式实现各单位职工团体献血。先后开展了"全民献血月""退役军人无偿献血 月""医务人员无偿献血月"等活动，联合市国资委组织了"企聚力.爱无界"团体献血，联合市委社会工作 部发起"热血淄博企业行"主题活动等。目前淄博市团体采血占比达23%。 刘观湘表示，随着医学科技的快速发展、医疗保障制度不断完善、群众健康理念的转变等，临床用血的 需求量不断攀升，淄博 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war has not definitively proven that tariffs can achieve trade rebalancing, but it has clearly triggered signs of global capital rebalancing, which has invigorated the Hong Kong market [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has purchased over $17 billion to maintain the currency peg [1] - India experienced its first net inflow of foreign capital in May-June this year [1] Group 2: Currency Valuation - The current value of the US dollar is widely considered to be overvalued by 15%-20%, primarily due to significant capital inflows that have driven up the exchange rate [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - In the context of global capital flows and the search for diversified allocations, China's offshore market and A-shares are expected to continue benefiting from capital rebalancing [1]

Core Insights - Bank of America Merrill Lynch warns that Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" will not achieve fiscal balance through growth effects and will provide limited economic growth stimulus [1][2] Group 1: Economic Impact - The plan is estimated to cost $2.3 trillion but will only generate $102.8 billion in revenue feedback, resulting in a self-financing ratio of only 4.5% [2][3] - To achieve self-financing, GDP needs to grow by approximately 9% by the fiscal year 2034, which is deemed nearly impossible [2][3] Group 2: Growth Projections - The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) projects that the plan will only increase GDP by an average of 3 basis points over the next 10 years, with a maximum increase of 0.4% by the fiscal year 2034 [3][4] - Economic effects from 2025 to 2034 are projected as follows: Output increase of 0.4%, Business capital decrease of 0.1%, Labor increase of 0.6%, and Consumption increase of 0.8% [3][4] Group 3: Comparison with Other Estimates - The Tax Foundation estimates that the plan will lead to a long-term GDP growth of 0.8%, covering about one-third of its costs [4] - The Wharton School predicts a GDP growth of 0.4% in the first decade, raising the annual growth rate from 1.8% to 1.85% [4] - The Yale Budget Lab suggests that the plan may raise growth rates from 1.8% to about 2% by 2027, but federal debt will eventually reverse this effect [4]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 镍 格暂时表现坚挺，国内镍铁成交价格有小幅反弹迹象，但大厂招标价格维持 940 元/镍 点。不锈钢方面来看，原料价格持稳，供应端国内及印尼方面均有减产，但全国主流市 场不锈钢 89 仓库口径社会总库存 114.55 万吨，周环比上升 2.07%，需求疲软压制，供 应调节供需平衡仍需时间。新能源方面，品种价格表现平稳，6 月需求排产难有大量新 增。一级镍方面，6 月供应环比延续下降，国内周度库存去化。综合来看，原料成本坚 挺为托底，一级镍去库，但向上受到下游需求制约，整体仍篇震荡运行，关注镍矿升水 和一级镍库存表现。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 有色商品日报 | 仓减仓 手；现货方面，SMM 氧化铝价格回落至 3259 元/吨。铝锭现货升 | | 721 至 10141 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 水扩至 元/吨，对无锡 200 | 90 | 元/吨。佛山 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 4.盘面：20日均线偏上，价格在均线上方；偏多 2025-06-13原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2507： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普周四表示，美国仍然致力于通过外交手段解决伊朗核问题，但他补充说，伊朗 必须首先放弃发展核武器的希望；据外媒报道，以色列空军当地时间周四对伊朗进行了袭击。目前尚不清 楚袭击目标，但报道称德黑兰发生了爆炸；特朗普警告说，他可能很快会提高汽车关税，认为这可能会促 使汽车制造商加快在美国的投资；偏多 2.基差：6月12日，阿曼原油现货价为68.86美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为68.69美元/桶，基21.78元/ 桶，现货升水期货；偏多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货79040，基差430，贴水期货；偏多。 3、库存：6月12日铜库存减2600至116850吨，上期所铜库存较上周增1613吨至107404吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，铜价震荡运行为主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,巴以地缘政治扰动。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-6-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1220元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1175元/吨，基差为45元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存168.63万吨，较前一周增加3.64%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 2、重碱下游浮法玻璃冷修高位，日熔量持续减少，对纯碱需求偏弱。 主要逻辑和风 ...