Group 1 - The price of gold surged, with London gold breaking through the $3430 per ounce mark and reaching $3440 per ounce, reflecting an intraday increase of over 0.7% [1] - COMEX gold also rose above $3500 per ounce, with an intraday increase of 0.9% [3] - The price of physical gold jewelry in China has surpassed 1000 yuan per gram for most brands [5] Group 2 - The recent short-term rise in spot gold prices indicates a temporary increase in risk aversion among investors [10] - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have boosted market optimism, while declining interest rates provide better holding conditions for gold as a non-yielding asset [10]

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a broad decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.20% to 45,544.88 points, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.15% to 21,455.55 points, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.64% to 6,460.26 points [1][2]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector in the US saw a significant drop, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeting over 3%. Major companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC ADR, AMD, and Oracle all experienced declines exceeding 3%, while Micron Technology, Applied Materials, ASML ADR, and Intel fell over 2% [3][4]. - Nvidia's market value decreased by $145.6 billion (approximately 1038.2 billion RMB) in one night, with its stock price dropping by 3.3% [4]. AI Chip Companies - Marvell Technology, a US AI custom chip giant, faced severe selling pressure, with its stock price plunging nearly 19% during intraday trading and closing down 18.6% at $62.87, marking a three-month low. The company's market capitalization shrank to $54.2 billion (approximately 38.64 billion RMB) [4]. Chinese Tech Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.5%, with Alibaba surging 12.9%, marking its largest increase since March 2023. The company has reportedly invested over 100 billion RMB in AI infrastructure and product development over the past four quarters [7][8]. - Other Chinese tech stocks like Baidu and JD.com also saw gains, while Netease and Pinduoduo experienced declines [8]. Gold and Commodities - Gold prices increased due to heightened risk aversion, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.2% to $3,516.1 per ounce, accumulating a weekly increase of 2.86% and a monthly rise of 5.2% [10][11]. - Silver futures also saw a rise of 2.64%, closing at $40.75 per ounce, with similar weekly and monthly gains [11]. Economic Indicators - The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with the core PCE price index accelerating to a 2.9% growth. Consumer confidence has declined, and the trade deficit has widened, leading to a projected slowdown in Q3 GDP growth to 2.2% [13]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have risen, with probabilities exceeding 80% [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, with London gold reaching $3440 per ounce and COMEX gold surpassing $3500 per ounce, reflects heightened market interest and potential investment opportunities in the gold sector due to inflation concerns and anticipated changes in U.S. monetary policy [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - London gold experienced a sharp increase, breaking through the $3430 per ounce mark to reach $3440 per ounce, with an intraday gain exceeding 0.7% [1]. - COMEX gold also rose, reaching $3503.5 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.9% [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, indicating stable consumer spending but rising inflationary pressures [5]. - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year rise from 2.8% in June to 2.9%, slightly above market expectations [5]. - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 61.7 in July to 58.2 in August, reflecting consumer anxiety about future economic conditions [5]. Group 3: Analyst Predictions and Market Trends - Analysts from Fidelity International suggest that the gold bull market could persist for many years, driven by factors such as declining interest rates and high inflation [6]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by ownership changes rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics [6]. - JPMorgan forecasts that central bank gold purchases could reach approximately 850 tons by 2025, contributing to a faster-than-expected rise in gold prices [6]. - Bank of America analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, potentially reaching $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, as inflation and potential interest rate cuts create favorable conditions for gold [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its strong rebound this week due to dovish stances from Fed officials, stable rate - cut expectations, and increased market risk - aversion. Despite economic data showing resilience, the dollar was not supported, and the "asymmetry" in economic indicators affected the long - end yield of US Treasuries, boosting the monetary attribute of gold. The market is awaiting the July core PCE data and the next non - farm payroll report. If inflation continues to slow and employment data weakens, the expectation of Fed rate cuts will rise, potentially driving gold prices higher. The Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation is a variable, but currently, the willingness of Russia to reach a cease - fire is low. It is recommended to make light - position layouts on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: After the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed officials showed dovish stances, and Trump's actions increased risk - aversion. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.3%, the labor market was resilient, and inflation data showed a slowdown. However, the dollar was not supported, and the precious metals market remained resilient [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The July core PCE data on Friday night will be a key guide. If it shows inflation slowdown, the expectation of Fed rate cuts may rise, and gold prices may break new highs. The non - farm payroll report next Friday is also crucial. A slowdown in employment data will boost rate - cut expectations. The Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation may affect gold's safe - haven property, but its impact is currently limited [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to make light - position layouts on dips. The expected price ranges for Shanghai gold 2510 contract are 750 - 800 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver 2510 contract are 9350 - 9450 yuan/kilogram. For London gold, it is 3350 - 3450 dollars/ounce, and for London silver, it is 38.5 - 39.5 dollars/ounce [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: Gold and silver prices rose this week. As of August 29, 2025, COMEX silver was at 39.55 dollars/ounce, up 0.34% month - on - month; Shanghai silver 2510 contract was at 9386 yuan/kilogram, up 2.11% month - on - month. COMEX gold was at 3470 dollars/ounce, up 1.54% month - on - month; Shanghai gold 2510 contract was at 785.12 yuan/gram, up 1.52% month - on - month [9][11]. - **ETF Holdings**: The net holdings of gold and silver ETFs on the foreign market increased this week. As of August 28, 2025, the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15333 tons, up 0.40% month - on - month, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 967.94 tons, up 1.20% month - on - month [13][17]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of August 19, 2025, COMEX gold speculative net positions decreased, while silver speculative net positions increased. The total and net positions of COMEX gold decreased, while those of COMEX silver increased [19][23]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 19, 2025, CFTC gold long positions decreased week - on - week, and short positions increased [25][29]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold and silver in the Shanghai market weakened this week. As of August 28, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.22 yuan/gram, down 51.9% month - on - month, and the silver basis was - 28 yuan/kilogram, down 247.40% month - on - month [31][33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week, while that of silver decreased, showing a differentiated trend from COMEX inventory. As of August 28, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 38764636.49 ounces, up 0.49% month - on - month; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 37455 kilograms, up 3.05% month - on - month. COMEX silver inventory was 508778300 ounces, up 0.10% month - on - month; Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 1109123 kilograms, down 2.80% month - on - month [35][39]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - **Imports**: As of July 2025, China's silver imports decreased slightly, while silver ore imports rebounded significantly. The monthly value of silver imports was 252977.88 kilograms, down 7.46% month - on - month, and the monthly value of silver ore imports was 154158134.00 kilograms, up 22.32% month - on - month [41][45]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of July 2025, due to the growth of silver demand in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4690000.00 pieces, and the year - on - year growth rate was 15% [47][51]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The silver supply and demand were in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. The supply - demand gap was narrowing year by year. As of the end of 2024, total supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [53][57][61]. 3.3.2 Gold Industry - **Prices**: This week, the gold recycling price and gold jewelry prices rose with the gold price. As of August 28, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 776.40 yuan/gram, up 0.83% week - on - week. The prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Zhou Dafu gold also increased [63][65]. - **Supply and Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The pace of central bank gold purchases slowed, and the high gold price led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [67]. 3.4 Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: Recently, the expectation of rate cuts has risen significantly, and the dollar has continued to weaken. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased. The 10 - year breakeven inflation rate in the US increased slightly this week. In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [73][78][83][88].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国二季度GDP数据被上修，美元继续回落，金价连续第五个交易日走 高；美国三大股指小幅收涨，欧洲主要股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率涨跌不一， 10年期美债收益率跌3.29个基点报4.201%；美元指数跌0.04%报98.19，离岸人民币 对美元小幅升值报7.1523；COMEX黄金期货涨0.82%报3476.9美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货783.22，现货780.22，基差-3，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单39504千克，增加2001千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线 ...

Group 1 - Liz Truss criticizes the independence of central banks, suggesting they should be accountable to politicians, indicating a shift in the traditional view of central bank autonomy [1][3] - Truss supports Donald Trump's interventionist stance on the Federal Reserve, claiming that a "clearing moment" for global central banks is approaching [1][2] - The Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, is considering reclaiming some of the Bank of England's powers, reflecting a growing sentiment against central bank independence in the UK [3][4] Group 2 - Trump's potential legal battle over the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could lead to a more dovish majority in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), impacting U.S. monetary policy [2] - Market reactions to Trump's influence on the Fed include a decline in the U.S. dollar and a drop in short-term Treasury yields, indicating increased uncertainty regarding monetary policy [2] - The criticism of central banks is linked to rising concerns over economic management, with Truss highlighting the negative impact of bureaucratic decisions on housing affordability for young people in the UK [3][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are influenced by U.S. Federal Reserve policies, particularly the potential for interest rate cuts, which are currently anticipated by the market [1][3] - On August 27, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 779.00 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 2.16 yuan compared to the futures price of 781.16 yuan per gram [1] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased to approximately 85%, up from 75% [1] Group 2 - Investors are awaiting the release of the U.S. July PCE price index, with expectations of a 2.6% year-over-year increase in overall PCE and a 2.9% increase in core PCE [2] - If the PCE data exceeds expectations, it may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates further, potentially restricting upward momentum for gold prices [2] - Gold and silver prices are expected to receive support from liquidity easing expectations, with projected trading ranges for Comex gold at $3350-$3500 per ounce and Shanghai gold at 770-800 yuan per gram [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance and market dynamics of the Gold ETF fund, which has shown a slight increase and is experiencing a three-day upward trend [3] - As of August 26, 2025, the Gold ETF fund has accumulated a weekly increase of 0.81% and has a latest price of 7.44 yuan [3] - The fund has seen a trading volume of 1.92 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 0.67% [3] Group 2 - The Gold ETF fund has experienced continuous net inflows over the past five days, totaling 159 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of approximately 99.54 million yuan [4] - The fund's financing buy amount reached 22.40 million yuan, with a financing balance of 3.57 billion yuan [4] - Over the past five years, the fund's net value has increased by 83.10%, ranking it among the top two in comparable funds [4] Group 3 - The fund's management fee is set at 0.50%, while the custody fee is 0.10% [4] - The tracking error of the Gold ETF fund over the past month is 0.002%, indicating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [4]

一样的行情，不一样的指导，不一样的人生。新手的特点就是不懂技术，盲目进场。他们每次交易只考虑一个问题：认为只要预判了市场涨跌就可以去做这 笔交易。这种重方向、轻位置的做法使得交易者一败涂地。其实，顺势而为的"势"跟"方向"是有很大差别的，因为市场的运动方向呈现震荡的形态运行，而 市场的趋势往往是全局性的。在我这里，我能做的是帮你合理的把控仓位，利用支撑和阻力位下单，让每一单有理可依，有迹可循。买卖点位不应该是随意 进场，请对自己的资金负责。如果你对行情真的无法把握，可以前来找到我，多一个分析师对你来说没有任何损失，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的 事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周三（8月27日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3390.85美元/盎司附近。周二（8月26日），美国总统特朗普突然宣布解雇美 联储理事库克，理由是其在抵押贷款申请中存在"不当行为"。这一举动不仅直接挑战美联储的独立性，更瞬间点燃了市场的避险情绪。黄金价格应声飙升至 逾两周最高点，现货黄金单日上涨0.83%，收于3393.43美元/盎司，为近两周最高收盘价。与此同时，美元指数下跌0 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：早间特朗普称解除美联储理事Cook职务，早间金价短线拉升；美国三大 股指全线收跌，欧股收盘普遍下跌；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨 0.78个基点报4.269%；美元指数涨0.74%报98.44，离岸人民币对美元升值报 7.1581；COMEX黄金期货跌0.23%报3410.70美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货779.18，现货775.67，基差-3.51，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单37515千克，增加60千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方； ...