有色金属日报 2025-5-16 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 国内权益市场走弱，美国零售增长放缓，贵金属价格企稳，铜价下探回升，昨日伦铜微涨 0.08%至 9600 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78490 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 925 至 184650 吨，注销仓 单比例下滑至 41.6%，Cash/3M 升水 14.8 美元/吨。国内方面，电解铜社会 ...

农产品早报 棉花：新疆大幅增产，达到十年来最高产量水平。国际贸易环境恶劣，叠加美国取消800美金以下小包裹赦免，大量通过小包裹运输的服装订 单将受到影响。内需恢复有限，整体需求端较差。本年度供需偏宽松，后续关注国内利好政策、贸易战变动及宏观风险。 | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/05/16 | | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/05/09 2180 | 2270 | 2410 | 2370 | -105 | -35 294 | 2800 | 2950 | 47 | -61 | | 2025/05/12 2180 | 2270 | 2400 | 2370 | -93 | -35 287 | 2800 | 2950 | 50 | 11 | | 2025/05/13 2180 | 2270 | 240 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic ethylene glycol prices have experienced fluctuations in 2023, with a notable drop in early April, but a potential recovery is anticipated following positive developments in US-China trade talks [1][7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption and production of domestic ethylene glycol have been increasing, with consumption projected to rise from 18.7 million tons in 2020 to 24.87 million tons in 2024, driven by a combined increase in polyester production capacity of 17.61 million tons [2] - Domestic ethylene glycol production capacity is expected to grow from 15.54 million tons in 2020 to 27.92 million tons in 2024, leading to an oversupply situation and significant profit declines for companies [2] - The net import volume of ethylene glycol is decreasing, from 10.48 million tons in 2020 to an estimated 6.39 million tons in 2024 [2] Production and Capacity Outlook - Total supply of ethylene glycol is projected to exceed 26 million tons in 2024, with an additional 2.4 million tons expected to come online by 2025, bringing total capacity to 30.32 million tons [3] - Despite the anticipated growth in production and demand, the overall operating rate in the domestic market remains below 70%, with coal-based ethylene glycol facilities operating at around 50% due to ongoing losses [3] Raw Material Route Differences - The domestic oil-based ethylene glycol production accounts for two-thirds of total capacity, with recent declines in international oil prices leading to improved profit margins for naphtha-integrated production [4] - Coal-based ethylene glycol has faced negative profit margins for the past four years, but recent decreases in coal prices have reduced losses and improved operating rates [4] - The ethane-based production route benefits from lower raw material costs, but recent tariffs have impacted sourcing from the US, prompting companies to seek alternatives [4] Import Dependency Trends - The import dependency for ethylene glycol has decreased significantly, with recent figures showing a reliance of 25% to 30% [5] - In Q1 2023, total ethylene glycol imports reached 1.9626 million tons, a 42.73% increase year-on-year, with major suppliers being Saudi Arabia, the US, and Canada [5] - The market is expected to remain influenced by domestic supply variables and import quantity changes, with a likelihood of narrow fluctuations in prices [5] Future Market Expectations - Recent financial policies and US-China diplomatic engagements are expected to stabilize and potentially increase ethylene glycol prices [6][7] - Analysts predict that despite supply-side pressures, upcoming maintenance schedules and reduced port arrivals may support price recovery, with a strong demand outlook from the polyester sector [7] - The textile industry in China, accounting for approximately 50% of global production, is expected to benefit from improved cost structures and demand recovery, further supporting ethylene glycol consumption [7]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 1 6 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 5月15日氧化铝大涨，原因与后续走势分析 5月15日，氧化铝期货盘面表现强劲，主力合约涨幅显著。此次大涨主要受两方面因素影响。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 供应端，近期氧化铝企业检修减产增多，运行产能持续下降，产量处于相对低位，且短期暂无新产 能投放，供应收紧给予价格反弹动力。从数据来看，国内港口氧化铝库存虽较前一周仅增加0.1万吨 至3.8万吨，但供应减量的趋势已在市场形成价格支撑预期。 需求端，早间现货市场询价增多，电解铝厂与贸易商询价积极，铝厂采购意愿上升，持货商顺势上 调报价，成交价格稳步上涨，总消费稳中略增，近期供需结构明显改善。 从后续走势看，目前氧化铝实际生产利润及盘面利润均修复至正值，可能缓解供应端的减产情绪， 成本下移也对价格存在潜在利空 。尽管当前氧化铝供应过剩暂时难以证伪，但短期 ...

商报讯(记者叶晓珺)"涨得有多疯狂，跌得就有多魔性。"继"金价狂飙"之后，近日的热搜是"金价又崩 了"。5月14日，国际金价下挫，现货黄金价格失守3200美元整数关口，一度跌至3180美元下方，日内跌 超2%；COMEX黄金期货跌超2%，亦跌破3200美元大关。截至当日收盘，金价已从上个月的3500美元 高点下跌了9%。 昨日早间，金价继续下挫，临近午间，现货黄金价格跌破3150美元/盎司关口，日内跌幅超1%，刷新一 个多月新低，午后跌幅再度拉大，报3137.33美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货跌1.24%，报3148.8美元/盎 司。与此同时，国内品牌金饰也迎来了一波下跌潮，昨日各大品牌首饰金价格集体回落至千元下方。不 过，对于金价后续的走势，机构方面表示，短期调整不会改变中长期上涨趋势。 金价跳水，国内首饰金跌进千元以内 "打工人的工资跌没了""半个月损失2000多元"……金价"跌跌不休"的"猛操作"，掀起了轩然大波。 5月14日晚，现货黄金向下跌破3180美元/盎司，创4月15日以来的新低；5月15日，跌势并未缓解，现货 黄金从接近3200美元/盎司，一路跌至3149美元/盎司，刷新一个多月新低，较4月2 ...

种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 68000 H # 利 王 -4192 外购锂辉石精矿利润 69263 P 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 外购锂云母精矿利润 -7021 宁德时代港股招股。5月12日，宁德时代披露H股招股说明书，以及H股发行价上限、H股香港公开发售等,预计于今年5月20日在中国香港联交所 V IT 主板挂牌并开始上市交易。公告显示，此次宁德时代港股IP0的发行价格区间上限为263港元/股，基本为今年5月8日的A股收盘价,实现接近/ 价格的高位定价。同时，此次港股IP0共计划发行1.18亿股股份,另设发售量调整权及超额配股权,若上述两项权利均获全额行使，按 的发行价格上限计算,预计募资总额为40亿-50亿美元(约合289.5亿-361.9亿元人民币) H 由于碳酸锂基本面赢弱为改善，且现货端成交近在贸易商与下游企业之间，锂盐厂挺价为主。短期内，碳酸锂期价出现长跌后的反 供过于求的格局没有改变,显性库存端持续累库,游采买意愿未提升,矿端价格持续下移、碳酸锂价格仍偏 员 免 告申的信息均源于公开可获得的资料、国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资? 对 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 5 月 15 日 | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/5/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 14.96 | 15.06 | -0.10 | 山 西 | 14.79 | 14.84 | -0.05 | | 湖北（0） | 14.61 | 14.61 | 0.00 | 辽 宁 | 14.55 | 14.59 | -0.04 | | 安徽（300） | 15.08 | 15.15 | -0.07 | 吉 林 | 14.51 | 14.54 | -0.03 | | 湖南（100） | 14.34 | 14.35 | -0.01 | 黑龙江 | 14.38 | 14.39 | -0.01 | | 四川 （-200） | 14.47 | 14.57 | -0.10 | 福 建 | 14.78 | 14.92 | -0.14 ...

CFC商品策略研究 . 以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者CFC油脂油料研究 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带 到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 石丽红 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 24/25产季，国内花生现货价格仅在国庆后出现一轮上涨行情，随后长期进入僵持阶段。自新季花生上市至今，主流产区通货米价格在3.95- 4.25元/斤范围内波动，尤其是年后基本围绕4.1元/斤关口小范围起伏。市场目前对僵持局面存在几点疑惑：供需为何长期僵持？产区是否还存 在"抛压"？当前价格是否对新季播种积极性有影响？为此我们走入东北产区，开展实地调研，总结成果如下： 供需为何长期僵持：需求走弱，但单产不达预期导致成本抬升 24/25年度，国内需求市场整体疲软，尤其是食品米走货持续偏慢。据产业反馈，2025年春节后80天内兴城红崖子集散地累计走货数量 下降20%左右，黑山、阜新、昌图均有下滑。需求疲弱导致各渠道环节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing analysis of gold prices, indicating a potential downward trend and questioning whether there will be a reversal opportunity tonight [1]. Group 1 - Gold prices are experiencing a continuous decline, prompting traders to consider whether to maintain a bearish outlook or adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach [1].

Core Viewpoint - The global panel market in Q1 2025 experienced complex and dynamic price trends influenced by multiple factors, with television panels showing initial strength but weakening by the end of the quarter, while monitor panels saw a price increase towards the end of the quarter, and notebook panels remained stable throughout [1][19]. Television Panel Price Trends - In January 2025, television panel prices rose due to strong demand driven by China's "trade-in" policy, particularly for large-sized panels, with price increases of $1 for 32-inch and 43-inch panels, $1 for 55-inch, $2 for 65-inch, $3 for 75-inch, and $4 for 85-inch panels [2][3]. - The demand for large-sized panels caused a squeeze on the production capacity of smaller-sized panels, indirectly pushing up their prices [3]. - By March, the market began to cool, with North American demand weakening post-Super Bowl promotions and Chinese policy effects diminishing, leading to a cautious outlook from brand clients due to high inventory levels [3][10]. Monitor Panel Price Trends - Monitor panel prices remained stable in January, with demand holding steady compared to Q4 2024, but began to rise in March as television panel price increases created opportunities for monitor panels [4][6]. - In February, despite being a traditional off-season, monitor panel demand remained strong, leading to a slight price increase of $0 to $0.1 for Open Cell types, while module prices stayed flat [6]. - March marked a turning point with comprehensive price increases for monitor panels, although brand clients remained cautious about future demand and international trade relations [6][10]. Notebook Panel Price Trends - Notebook panel prices remained stable throughout Q1 2025, with no significant changes observed [7][9]. - Despite some brands increasing inventory levels due to international trade issues, most panel manufacturers and brand clients adopted a cautious approach, focusing on maintaining market share and customer relationships [9][10]. Overall Market Dynamics - The price fluctuations in the panel market were influenced by demand-side drivers and constraints, with initial boosts from policies like "trade-in" in China, but diminishing effects over time [10]. - Supply-side strategies and unexpected events, such as the earthquake in Taiwan affecting production, also played a role in market dynamics [10]. - External uncertainties, particularly international trade relations, significantly impacted brand clients' inventory strategies and supply chain management [10][19]. Company Performance - In Q1 2025, several panel companies reported strong earnings, with notable revenue growth from major players like Samsung Display, BOE, and TCL Huaxing, while LG Display, AU Optronics, and others successfully turned losses into profits [11][12][14]. - TCL Huaxing's acquisition of LG Display's Guangzhou LCD line is expected to enhance its market position further [14]. - The performance of leading companies indicates strong resilience and growth potential in a competitive market, despite ongoing challenges faced by some firms [14][19].