Core Viewpoint - The trade negotiations between Japan and the United States have shown little progress, with the U.S. expressing optimism while Japan remains cautious about the outcomes of the discussions [1][2]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury Secretary and other officials described the discussions as "frank and constructive," emphasizing the importance of tariffs and economic security [1]. - Japan's representatives indicated measures to reduce trade surplus, such as reviewing non-tariff barriers on auto imports and increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products [2]. - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that tariffs on automobiles are "absolutely unacceptable" and emphasized that reducing the U.S. trade deficit should not come at the expense of Japanese jobs [2]. Group 2: Future Negotiation Prospects - The U.S. has taken a hard stance, refusing to discuss tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, which complicates cooperation [4]. - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister indicated plans for another meeting in mid-May, focusing on expanding trade and reducing non-tariff barriers [4]. - Japan's Finance Minister acknowledged the need to consider its own economic security when responding to U.S. demands, particularly regarding economic ties with China [4]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Japan holds approximately $1.08 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, which could be used as leverage in trade negotiations, although this approach has been previously denied by Japanese officials [5]. - Analysts suggest that Japan's mention of U.S. debt as a negotiation tool marks a new phase in trade tensions, despite concerns about the potential negative impact of selling U.S. bonds [5][6]. - The strategy of using U.S. debt as a bargaining chip could position Japan favorably in negotiations without immediate action [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the implications of Trump's tariff war on the global economy, particularly focusing on the strategies and responses of various economic entities, including China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as the broader international context [2][4]. Group 1: Trump's Psychological Bottom Line - Trump's key demands in the tariff negotiations include a 10% baseline tariff on global imports, protective tariffs on key industries like automobiles, and specific measures targeting China, Canada, and Mexico [5][6][8]. - The 10% baseline tariff is seen as a potential concession point for Trump, aimed at preventing trade loopholes and increasing fiscal revenue [6]. - Protective tariffs on industries such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles are intended to limit competition and protect American jobs, with tariffs already set at 25% for steel and aluminum [7]. Group 2: Trump's Game Strategy - The U.S. holds a strategic advantage in the tariff war due to its position as the largest global demand-side economy, allowing it to dictate terms to other economies [10]. - Trump's unpredictable behavior in tariff announcements serves to increase the decision-making costs for opponents, maintaining strategic flexibility [11]. - The U.S. is shifting from multilateral frameworks like the WTO to bilateral negotiations, using tariffs as leverage to reshape trade relationships [10]. Group 3: China's Response - China has demonstrated a strong and rapid response to U.S. tariffs, indicating both the necessity and capability to counteract U.S. measures [15][16]. - The trade conflict is characterized as a repeated prisoner's dilemma, where mutual cooperation is beneficial, but unilateral concessions would disadvantage China [15]. - China's economic resilience and strategic reforms are expected to mitigate the impacts of the tariff war, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and technological self-sufficiency [18]. Group 4: Responses from Other Economies - Canada has taken a firm stance against U.S. tariffs, leveraging its economic ties with the U.S. to push back effectively, while Mexico has shown a more passive response due to its dependency on the U.S. [22][23]. - Other economies like the EU, Japan, and India have exhibited a tendency to negotiate rather than retaliate, reflecting their reliance on the U.S. and a lack of unified response strategies [25][26]. - The EU's delayed response to U.S. tariffs highlights internal divisions and a lack of cohesive strategy compared to China's swift actions [26].

第一：隔夜美股集体大涨 美东时间周五，美股三大指数集体收涨，道指、标普录得日线九连涨，标普500指数创2004年以来最长 连涨纪录。 截止收盘，道指涨幅1.39%，纳指涨幅1.51%，标普500涨幅1.47%。 第四：时间真快 没想到刚放的五一，今天都5月3日了，时间真快。度个假，感觉真好，暂时忘记公司发展规划、暂时忘 记尘世的烦恼，好好给大脑放个假。 5月2日盘中，人民币汇率持续走强。其中，离岸人民币兑美元汇率强势反弹，盘中连续升穿7.27、 7.26、7.25、7.24、7.23五道关口。 大型科技股多数上涨，Meta涨逾4%，英特尔涨超3%，特斯拉、微软、英伟达、奈飞涨超2%，谷歌涨 超1%；苹果跌超3%，亚马逊小幅下跌。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨3.5%，本周累涨3.14%。3大造车新势力集体上涨，阿 里涨幅超4%。按此情况，下周开盘，A股不错呀。 第二：人民币大涨700点 截至北京时间5月3日04:59，离岸人民币兑美元汇率报7.2103，较周四纽约尾盘涨686个基点。 这跟贸易摩擦近期比较温和、美元走低有关系，总算是抗住了。 第三：美国非农数据增加17.7万 最新数据显示，美国4 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the sector[5] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is primarily attributed to external shocks from trade friction, although domestic demand remains relatively stable[5] - New export orders index fell to 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points, reflecting increased pressure on export-oriented industries due to trade uncertainties[15] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The services business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating stability in the sector[22] - The construction business activity index is 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, with civil engineering showing improvement at 60.9%[26] - Seasonal factors, such as the upcoming "May Day" holiday, may lead to a rebound in the travel sector's activity[22] Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central government is accelerating the implementation of existing policies to boost domestic demand in response to external uncertainties[30] - Over 160 billion yuan has been allocated for consumption incentives, with an additional 140 billion yuan planned for future investments[30] - The focus on enhancing domestic consumption and effective investment is expected to support economic recovery in the second quarter[30]

RJO Futures高级市场策略师John Caruso在接受采访时表示："回头看，美债收益率下行、油价下跌、铜价大跌， 这些宏观指标正在共同传递出全球经济承压的明显信号。" 智通财经APP获悉，4月即将结束之际，铜价在本周三上演"跳水式"暴跌，在一个交易日内的跌幅竟超过了整个4 月的累计跌幅，给原本已疲弱的全球市场情绪再添一层阴霾。作为重要的工业金属，铜一向被视为全球经济健康 的"风向标"。铜价的剧烈下挫，可能意味着投资者对经济前景的预期愈发悲观。 根据道琼斯市场数据，周三铜期货主力合约(7月交割)下跌5.4%，收于每磅4.61美元，创下自4月11日以来的最低 收盘水平，并录得三周多来最大的单日跌幅。 Caruso指出，当前的走势像极了"W型复苏"的前兆，即"二次探底式"经济复苏，这意味着经济可能在初步复苏后 再次陷入衰退。"这种走势比我们常见的'V型'复苏更加难以应对，是一个危险的结构性信号。" 在整个4月份，铜价累计下跌了8.4%，创下自2022年6月以来的最大月度跌幅。尽管如此，铜价年内仍上涨了 14.5%。 铜价下跌背后的"宏观焦虑" Zaye Capital Markets首席投资官Naeem ...

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing significant challenges due to increased trade friction, weak demand, and a supply-demand imbalance, leading to price fluctuations and potential risks of further declines in the future [1][8]. Supply and Production - The spring maintenance has led to a noticeable increase in PVC maintenance, resulting in a significant drop in operating rates, which are now below 80%, with weekly production around 450,000 tons [4]. - The production pressure is temporarily alleviated due to ongoing maintenance plans, which are expected to keep operating rates at low levels [4]. Cost and Profitability - The PVC supply-demand imbalance is evident, with prices near a 10-year low, causing substantial profit compression for producers, leading to losses becoming the norm [5]. - The integrated chlor-alkali enterprises that produce PVC are facing losses, particularly in the external procurement of calcium carbide, which is around 600 yuan/ton [5]. - The profitability of PVC and caustic soda has recently turned negative, indicating that cost support may gradually become more apparent [5]. Demand Dynamics - Weak demand has become a norm for PVC, with 80% of its downstream demand linked to the real estate sector, which is currently in a weak cycle [6]. - Despite recent stimulus policies aimed at the real estate market, the impact on PVC demand remains limited, with new construction data still showing weakness [6]. Export Trends - In March, China exported 360,000 tons of PVC, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with cumulative exports from January to March reaching 970,000 tons, up 56% year-on-year [7]. - However, increasing trade friction and higher import/export tariffs are expected to complicate future PVC exports, potentially diminishing the positive impact of exports on domestic supply-demand balance [7].

Market Overview - After six days of gains, the US stock market appears to be in a correction phase due to escalating trade tensions, weak US economic data, and a disappointing earnings forecast from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) [1][2] - On Monday, US stock index futures fell, while European stocks opened higher, with the euro slightly rising against the dollar [1] Company Performance - Several companies, including General Motors Co. and JetBlue Airways Corp., have withdrawn their earnings guidance amid increasing trade friction, with United Parcel Service Inc. announcing a layoff of 20,000 employees this year [2] - Mercedes-Benz Group AG also retracted its earnings outlook for the year due to uncertainties related to trade barriers [2] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw its stock drop over 15% following an earnings forecast that significantly missed expectations [5][9] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil experienced a decline of 2.0%, trading at $59.2 per barrel [4] - Spot silver fell by 2.00%, priced at $32.27 per ounce [2] - Spot gold dropped by 0.9%, briefly falling below $3,290 per ounce [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Energy is in the process of replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), a task that will take several years, following significant withdrawals by the Biden administration [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Petroleum Reserve Replenishment - Energy Secretary Chris Wright criticized the Biden administration for irresponsibly selling off the SPR, stating that the rapid release has damaged energy infrastructure [1]. - The Department is currently working on replenishing four SPR sites and repairing two others, while seeking additional funding to expedite these efforts [1]. - In March, Wright indicated that the Department was preparing to purchase $20 billion worth of crude oil as the first step in replenishing the national SPR [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that the multi-year large-scale crude oil purchasing plan by the U.S. will provide a long-term stable demand source for the market, potentially supporting oil prices to some extent [3]. - As of now, the WTI crude oil price is approximately $61 per barrel, having declined nearly 14% since the beginning of the year [3]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly lowered its global oil demand growth forecast, predicting a 30% drop to 730,000 barrels per day by 2025, and further slowing to 690,000 barrels per day by 2026 [3].

Group 1 - The dynamic changes in the gold-oil ratio reflect market risk appetite, macroeconomic expectations, and geopolitical developments, serving as a leading indicator of the macroeconomy and a warning tool for systemic risks [2][3] - Historically, the gold-oil ratio has remained stable between 10 and 25 since 1970, with significant increases above 25 often preceding major financial or geopolitical events [2][6] - A significant rise in the gold-oil ratio typically indicates heightened market risk aversion and expectations of economic slowdown or recession [6][16] Group 2 - The gold-oil ratio reached historical peaks during various crises, such as 41.4 during the 1973 oil crisis and 30 during the 1998 Asian financial crisis, reflecting the interplay of geopolitical tensions and economic instability [7][10][12] - Recent increases in the gold-oil ratio are attributed to rising market risk aversion, expectations of economic recession, and weakened oil supply-demand dynamics, particularly influenced by U.S. tariff policies [16][17] - The U.S. tariff measures have escalated trade tensions, leading to downward revisions in global economic growth forecasts and increased concerns about oil demand [18][21] Group 3 - Financial institutions have adjusted their global oil demand growth forecasts downward, with Goldman Sachs predicting a reduction of 300,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 400,000 barrels per day for 2026 due to trade tensions [21] - OPEC+ has entered a production increase phase, with plans to exceed market expectations, further exacerbating concerns about oil supply surplus [22][27] - The current oil price is under pressure from three main factors: escalating U.S. tariff policies, pessimistic oil demand outlook, and OPEC+ production increases [27][28]