楼市再迎重磅利好！降准降息等系列新政后续影响几何 金十数据5月7日讯，今天国新办发布会上，降准降息、降公积金贷款利率，楼市再迎重磅利好。今天的 政策，对购房人来说是绝对的利好，特别是一、二线城市的购房人。一季度以来，受前期一系列政策的 影响，一、二线城市"金三银四"这个传统楼市销售旺季，表现不错，一线城市整体表现较好，新房销售 面积增长0.6%，二线城市市场持续回暖。在这样的背景下，今天更加宽松的政策出台后，会进一步刺 激一、二线城市的购房需求，会进一步延续目前"小阳春"的热度，5月的各地楼市有望进一步企稳。第 二，更多的楼市新政有望出台。今天一系列政策发布后，我们已经看到，杭州、长沙、上海等地的公积 金贷款利率已经宣布调整。对于如何保持房地产预期的稳定，下一步各地涉及房地产供需两端的政策， 有望进一步优化调整，特别是去库存的相关举措有望加快落地。 （央视新闻） ...

贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 报告正文 事件： 5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" 情况 。 本次发布会的变与不变？三大部门负责人出席，更侧重详细阐释政策落实情况 继"9.24"金融政策发布会后，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人再度联合召开新闻发布会，详解本轮一 揽子金融政策支持进展。 4月中央政治局会议作出部署后，多部门已召开新闻发布会解读落实举措。 5月7 日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人进一步详解稳市场强预期的一揽子金融政策。与"9.24"发布会相 似，本次发布会仍为三大金融相关部门负责人共同出席；不同在于，此次发布会紧跟4月中央政治局会议， 侧重对政策执行细则的深度解读。 本次发布会，央行重点介绍推出三大类型货币政策措施、十项具体举措。 三大类型包含，数量型政策，通 过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给；价格型政策，下调政策利率，降低结构性货币政策工具利率，也 就是中央银行向商业银行提供再贷款的利率，同时调降公积金贷款利率；结构型政策，完善现有结构性货 币政策工具，并创设新的政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普惠金融等领域。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the release of over 20 incremental policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including comprehensive reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, as well as new structural monetary policy tools [1][3] Monetary Policy - The central bank has implemented ten policies across quantity, price, and structural categories, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [1][4] - The policy interest rate has been lowered by 0.1 percentage points, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1][4] - The introduction of a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the rates of structural monetary policy tools, including various special structural tools and re-lending rates, is expected to save banks approximately 15-20 billion yuan annually [1][4] Financial Supervision - Eight policies have been deployed concerning real estate, capital markets, corporate financing, and technological innovation, including the acceleration of financing systems compatible with new real estate development models [1][4] - The report emphasizes the need for a comprehensive policy package to support small and private enterprises in financing, as well as targeted measures for businesses affected by tariffs [1][4] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has announced three policies focusing on technological innovation, mergers and acquisitions, and the entry of medium to long-term funds into the market, including the upcoming release of a high-quality development action plan for public funds [1][4]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a series of monetary policy measures including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [3][4] - The central bank also lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.1 percentage points from 1.5% to 1.4%, which will lead to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3][4] Group 2: Economic Growth and Demand Expansion - The measures aim to address external shocks, expand domestic demand, and reduce the cost of bank liabilities, especially in light of ongoing global trade tensions and low domestic inflation [4][5] - The central bank is also focusing on boosting consumer spending and investment by lowering the reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and leasing companies to 0% and establishing a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and pension re-loan" to support financial institutions in these sectors [6][8] Group 3: Support for Enterprises and Foreign Trade - Increased financing support for small and micro enterprises is a priority, with an additional 300 billion yuan allocated for agricultural and small enterprise re-loans, bringing the total to 3 trillion yuan [8][9] - The financial regulatory authority plans to implement a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade, including enhancing export credit insurance and providing tailored financial services for affected enterprises [9][10] Group 4: Real Estate Market Stability - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization after a prolonged adjustment, with first-tier cities experiencing a rebound in second-hand housing prices [12][13] - Measures include lowering mortgage rates and public housing loan rates to alleviate the financial burden on homebuyers and stimulate demand [13][14] Group 5: Capital Market Stability - The China Securities Regulatory Commission expressed confidence in stabilizing the stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering from previous lows and showing an 8.91% increase [17][18] - Future policies will focus on internal stability, institutional reforms, and external openness to enhance market resilience [17][22] Group 6: Technological Innovation Financing - The government aims to establish a comprehensive financial system to support technological innovation through various financing channels, including loans, equity financing, and bond issuance [23][24] - Specific measures include promoting the issuance of technology innovation bonds and enhancing insurance coverage for technology enterprises [26][29]

证券研究报告 固收视角 双降落地，曲线走陡 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 07 日│中国内地 张继强 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 其次对市场而言，择机或适时降准降息早有预告，本次降准时间和力度基本符合预期。在我们 4 月 18 日开展的问卷调 查中，89%的投资者认为未来三个月会降准。我们也认为降准时机基本成熟。一是当前银行超储率水位不高，中长期 流动性缺口有待补充；二是降准时间间隔已接近历史平均规律，上一次降准是 2024 年 9 月，根据历史规律降准间隔平 均为 4-8 月；三是政府债进入发行高峰，特别国债启动发行，降准有助于稳定资金面。 降息时间略早于预判，但并不意外，幅度为 10BP，低于去年 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing market expectations and boosting confidence across various sectors, including monetary policy, capital markets, real estate, and the real economy [1][7][10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a combination of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, releasing approximately 1 trillion RMB in long-term liquidity, which is expected to lower financing costs for financial institutions and enhance credit supply [1][2][10] - The report anticipates that the combination of these policies will positively impact market sentiment and support the development of the real economy, especially in light of improved China-U.S. trade relations [1][7] Group 2: Monetary Policy Measures - The PBOC has reduced the rates of structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, including the rates for various special structural tools and the personal housing provident fund, which directly lowers financing costs for agriculture, small enterprises, and homebuyers [2][10] - A new 500 billion RMB "service consumption and pension re-loan" initiative and a risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds have been established to provide targeted support for consumption and technological innovation [2][10] Group 3: Financial Regulation Initiatives - The financial regulatory authority has announced measures to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, focusing on supporting reasonable financing needs of quality real estate companies and projects [3][5] - The report indicates that insurance funds will play a crucial role in stabilizing the capital market, with plans to expand the scope of long-term investment trials and adjust risk factors for insurance company stock investments [5][10] Group 4: Market Outlook and Sector Focus - The report identifies three main investment themes: technology innovation, high dividend stocks, and policy benefits, suggesting that sectors such as technology hardware, internet technology, and quality consumer leaders are likely to benefit from supportive policies and demand growth [10][12] - The macro environment is expected to provide strong support for the Hong Kong stock market, with liquidity easing signals and internal demand policies being implemented to counter external uncertainties [7][10]

Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a comprehensive monetary policy package, including a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[3] - Policy interest rates were reduced by 10 basis points for OMO and LPR, and housing provident fund loan rates were lowered by 25 basis points, enhancing support for credit and stabilizing the real estate market[3] - An additional 3,000 billion yuan in re-loans was allocated for technological innovation and small enterprises, with a total of 5,000 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care support[3] Economic Impact - The reduction in interest rates is expected to stimulate private investment, which grew by 0.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating increased participation in public sectors and manufacturing[3] - Government bond interest payments are projected to rise to 9.2% of the 2025 general fiscal budget revenue, up from 7.8% last year, indicating a growing fiscal burden[3] Market Reactions - The Shanghai Composite Index opened strongly on May 7, recovering previous losses and nearing levels seen on April 3, 2025, reflecting positive market sentiment[4] - The bond market showed a steepening yield curve, with short-term rates declining and long-term rates rising due to improved economic expectations[4] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include the possibility of growth policies not meeting expectations, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and overseas economic downturns[4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent financial policies introduced by the People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies are stronger than expected, which has boosted market confidence and provided significant support for both the financial market and the real economy [1][2][3] - The policies aim to stabilize the market and expectations by reducing stock investment risk factors, enhancing the role of the Central Huijin Investment Company, and addressing external risks, particularly in response to tariff impacts [2][3] - The central bank's decision to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market, which aligns with market expectations [4][5] Group 2 - The financial policies include targeted support for foreign trade enterprises and technological innovation, with measures such as the establishment of a risk-sharing mechanism for technology bonds and specific services for companies affected by tariffs [5][6] - Private equity firms are maintaining a medium to high position in their portfolios, focusing on sectors such as technology and consumer goods, indicating a positive outlook for the A-share market [6] - The recent interest rate cuts, including a 10 basis point reduction in the benchmark rate and a 25 basis point decrease in housing loan rates, are expected to stabilize credit demand across the economy [4][5]

一揽子金融政策有效提振市场情绪。 5月7日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 本次发布会出台了降准降息、结构性货币政策工具降价扩容、险资入市加码、公募费率改革等众多增量政策。 公募基金普遍认为，会议释放积极政策信号，有效提振市场情绪。 发布会超预期 此次发布会上，央行发布三类共10项货币政策，延续货币政策适度宽松基调，强化逆周期调节和支持实体经济 发展。 金融监管总局发布8项增量政策，覆盖房地产、资本市场、小微民营企业、外贸及科技创新等多个领域。 博时基金首席权益策略分析师陈显顺分析，此次会议凸显多部门协同发力稳定市场的政策决心，释放以下三大 信号。一是政策协调性强化。央行、金融监管总局、证监会联合部署，传递系统性维稳意图，提振市场信心。 二是重点风险化解加码。明确支持房企合理融资、推进地方债务重组，并严控IPO节奏缓解资金分流压力，结 构性纾困政策有望降低系统性风险。三是 引入 长线资金。推动险资、养老金等入市，优化分红回购机制，引 导市场从短期博弈转向长期价值投资，夯实估值底部。 景顺长城基金指出，本次央行、金融监管总局、证监会三部委出台多项举措，释放积极政 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The urea market shows an upward trend today, with potential risks due to uncertain export news. The short - term trend of copper is mainly range - bound, affected by macro uncertainties and strong fundamentals. The short - term trend of rebar is expected to be volatile, and the hot - rolled coil market faces supply and demand pressure. The soybean meal 09 contract is expected to rebound [3][10][11][13][16] - The lithium carbonate market is in a weak state in the short term, with an oversupply pattern and a tendency of weak range - bound oscillation [5] 3. Summary by Variety Urea - Price movement: Opened slightly higher and trended upward during the day. Factory prices continued to rise and started a limited - order receiving mode [3] - Supply: Some upstream factories had minor maintenance and production cuts after the holiday, and daily production decreased slightly. Future maintenance plans are expected to cause narrow fluctuations [3] - Demand: Agricultural fertilizer preparation is cautious, and high - price transactions at factories are average. Industrial demand is not yet a rigid need. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has declined for eight consecutive weeks [3] - Inventory: Inventory turned to destocking this week, providing some support to the futures price [3] Carbonate Lithium - Price movement: After six consecutive days of decline, it opened lower and hit a new low, with an afternoon narrow - range oscillation. The closing price was 64,615.93 yuan/ton, a 1.6% drop [4] - Supply: Some upstream salt plants stopped production or had maintenance. The supply - demand imbalance pressure has been slightly relieved, but the production capacity of shutdown enterprises has not been cleared [5] - Demand: Affected by the macro - environment, downstream demand is uncertain. If an agreement on electric vehicles is reached between China and Europe, demand is expected to improve [5] - Inventory: From April to May, the Chinese market still had inventory accumulation, and the inventory pressure remains [5] Copper - Price movement: Opened high and then rose during the day [10] - Supply: Multiple smelters have maintenance plans in May, with an expected impact on electrolytic copper output of 21,000 tons. The market still anticipates a tight supply [10] - Demand: The downstream operating rate is rising. In April, the operating rate of cable enterprises reached 86.3%, and orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month [10] - Market situation: Macroeconomic uncertainties and the expectation of US economic stagflation suppress the upside, but the fundamentals are still strong [10] Rebar - Price movement: The main contract RB2510 closed at 3,098 yuan, a 0.19% increase from the previous trading day, showing a slight upward oscillation [11] - Supply: Some steel mills have maintenance, but there is no centralized production control. Output is still slightly increasing [11] - Demand: Post - holiday restocking drove the apparent demand to a new high [11] - Inventory: Total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 870,000 tons, and rebar inventory decreased by 583,000 tons [12] Hot - Rolled Coil - Price movement: The main contract HC2510 closed at 3,217 yuan, a 0.34% increase, with frequent price fluctuations [13] - Supply: Plate steel mills resumed production, and output increased by 18,000 tons. However, the profit per ton is shrinking, and the room for further production increase is limited [13] - Demand: Weekly apparent demand increased slightly, but external demand is weak due to frequent anti - dumping investigations overseas [13] - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 134,000 tons, with a slower destocking speed than rebar [13] Soybean Meal - Price movement: The main 09 contract opened low and oscillated, with a closing decline of - 0.03% [14] - International situation: The US soybean planting season has good weather and fast progress. Brazil may expand its soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season [14] - Domestic situation: Since late April, imported Brazilian soybeans have arrived at ports, and the inventory of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills has slightly increased [16] - Outlook: The 09 contract is expected to rebound, and cautious operation is recommended [16] Overall Futures Market - As of the close on May 7, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), PX, and asphalt rose nearly 3%, while polysilicon fell more than 3% [7] - In terms of funds, the CSI 1000 2506 had an inflow of 4.138 billion yuan, while rebar 2510 had an outflow of 3.772 billion yuan [7]