投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 偏多思路 | 供应扰动再现，焦煤强势运行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 偏多思路 | 成本支撑强劲，焦炭持续上行 | 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：偏多思路 核心逻辑：自 7 月中央财经委员会第六次会议和习近平山西考察以后，7 月 22 日市场传出煤矿 生产情况核查、整改超产煤矿的消息，核查范围覆盖山西、内蒙、陕西、新疆等国内煤炭主产 区。若该传闻为真，则将是煤炭行业在本轮反内卷整治的第一个重磅事件，将切实扭转焦煤后 续供应格局。此外，我国投资 1.2 万亿的雅鲁藏布江超级水电项目开工，也将拉动国内水泥、 钢材的长期需求。综上，随着利多因素不断叠加，市场乐观情绪升温，驱动焦煤主 ...

今日早参 2025 年 7 月 23 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 仇文竹 债券策略研究组长 座机：13910895671 邮箱：qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 固定收益：债市波段应对的三个理由 我们在近三周建议对债市要波段应对（6 月 29 日《趋势力量尚存，但拥挤度 偏高》、7 月 13 日《高拥挤度遇上边际变化》）。近两日，债市在前期震荡格 局中呈现偏弱态势，10 年期国债收益率小幅上行，与股市、商品的强势形成 鲜明对比，债市的担忧情绪悄然升温，多头信心有所动摇，债市正迎来一轮 关键的多空博弈。 风险提示：关税谈判进展超预期、地产等政策规模超预期、股市表现超预 期。 研报发布日期：2025-07-22 研究员 张继强 SAC:S0570518110002 SFC:AMB145 仇文竹 SAC:S0570521050002 吴宇航 SAC:S0570521090004 固定收益：海外利率 ...

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 7 月 23 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/7/23 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農物 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 液化石油气 | 炊油 | 橡胶 | | | | 锌 | 铝 | 橡胶 | | | | 原油 | 沥青 | 工业硅 | | | | 二债 | 氧化铝 | 多晶硅 | | | | 五债 | 烧碱 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 十债 | 棉花 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 三十债 | 棉纱 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 红枣 | 白糖 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 锰硅 | 玉米 | 焦炭 | | | | 硅铁 | 热轧卷板 | 焦煤 | ...

2025年07月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需仍偏紧，滚动正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：聚酯产销放量，原料趋势偏强 | 2 | | MEG：单边趋势偏强，月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：价格中枢上移 | 6 | | 沥青：震荡反复 | 8 | | LLDPE：区间震荡 | 10 | | PP：现货震荡，成交清淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：反弹难持续 | 13 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：偏强运行 | 18 | | 尿素：现货企稳，上方空间收窄 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：强情绪之下的空配 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期偏弱震荡 | 24 | | PVC：反弹难持续 | 27 | | 燃料油：继续下跌，短期弱势难有改观 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘偏弱震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：10空单、10-12和10-02反套持有 | 30 | | 短纤：成本支撑，短期震荡偏 ...

近期在反内卷稳增长政策，淘汰20年落后装置，雅鲁藏布江水电站基建需求刺激以及海外 化工企业火 灾不可抗力等多重因素影响下，化工商品价格表现强势，带动行业景气度不断提升， 石油石化（申万 一级）指数近期表现突出，石化ETF（ 159731）昨日上涨2.53%，连涨三天，合计上涨6.88%。 据报 道，有关部门即将推出石化化工行业稳增长工作方案，有望推动落后产能淘汰、引领行业健康发展。当 前化工行业老旧产能的淘汰工作进入评估阶段，具体实施后有望引领行业供给侧逐渐优化，同时推动我 国化工行业设备更新、增强化工装置整体竞争力。受过去四年行业资本开支加大、新增产能集中落地等 影响，当前行业盈利整体承压。后续伴随石化行业稳增长工作方案出台，部分落后产能有望出清，行业 供给端竞争格局有望迎来优化，带动景气度和基本面持续修复。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金 （017855/017856）跟踪中证石化产业指数（H11057.CSI），该指数由 中证800指数样本股中的石化产 业股票组成，以反映该产业公司股票的整体表现。从申万一级行业分布来看，中证石化产业指数以基础 化工和石油石化行业为主，权重占比分别为58.1%和3 ...

雅江题材掀起市场高潮，有色稀土、煤炭占据反内卷"高地"。 今日午后，A股煤炭股受传闻刺激突然爆发。 截至收盘，山西焦煤、昊华能源、潞安环能、山煤国际、淮北矿业、晋控煤业等多股涨停。 受此提振，国内期货主力合约多数上涨，玻璃、多晶硅、纯碱、焦炭、焦煤、工业硅涨停。 | 名称 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 张幅� | 持合 | 日壇仓 | 成交额 | 成交量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 焦炭主连 | 1697.5 | +125.5 | +7.98% | 40527 | -3388 | 96.92 7 | 58919 | | 2 焦煤主连 | 1048.5 | +77.5 | +7.98% | 44.217 | -62782 | 100417 | 163.6万 | | 3 PVC主连 | 5260 | +187 | +3.69% | 86.537 | -49630 | 480.017 | 185.1万 | | 4 铁矿石主连 | 823.0 | +20.0 | +2.49% | 61.99万 | -43544 | 484.9 7 | 59 ...

煤炭ETF（515220）四连阳，7月22日大涨8.25%。 来源：Wind 消息面上，"煤炭限产"的市场消息点燃了煤炭板块的"反内卷"交易热情，午后板块直线拉升。但目前该消息还未得到官方证实，仍需理性看待。 需求端，受高温天气影响，全国电力负荷刷新历史新高，2025年全国16个省级电网负荷36次突破历史新高。电厂日耗随高温大幅增长，截至2025年7月17 日，25省综合日耗煤633.00万吨，同比增长9.42%，环比上周增长11.07%。 供给端，短期来看，随着降雨减少、天气转晴，煤矿产能或将有所恢复，但煤炭进口降幅持续扩大。根据海关总署，6月份进口煤炭3303.70万吨，创近两 年新低，且降幅仍在逐步扩大。中长期来看，在"反内卷"政策的推动下，煤炭产能结构有望得到进一步控制和优化。 综合而言，当前煤炭供给存在边际收紧预期，需求随迎峰度夏+非电用煤持续支撑，煤价反弹动力较强。作为市场唯一一只煤炭ETF，投资者可考虑逢低 分批布局煤炭ETF（515220）及其联接基金（联接A：008279；联接C：008280；联接E：022501），把握煤炭板块投资机会。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零 ...

雅下水电站行情继续演绎，建材ETF（159745）大涨6.76%、基建ETF（159619）大涨6.44%。 来源：WIND 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产品，请您关注投资者适当性管理相关规定、提前做好风险测评，并根据您自身的风险承 受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 具体到投资层面，顺周期板块的估值逻辑已经从"弱预期-弱现实"转化为"强预期-弱现实"，底部区域已经逐渐清晰，配置的"赔率"性价比正在凸显。其 中，建材、基建、钢铁等板块有望直接受益于"超级工程"的落地投建，业绩和估值均存在较大的扩张空间，感兴趣投资者可关注建材ETF（159745）、基 建ETF（159619）、钢铁ETF（515210）等。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方 式。但是定期定额 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity market experienced a rare daily limit surge on Tuesday, with the main contracts of six varieties, including glass, soda ash, coking coal, coke, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, closing at the daily limit. The core driving force for this rally is the continuous release of the "anti-involution" policy signal by the state, combined with the coal mine production inspection notice circulated on the same day, which triggered expectations of supply tightening [2][46]. - The international precious metal futures generally closed higher, while international oil prices slightly declined. London's base metals mostly rose, and international agricultural product futures showed mixed performance [3][4][5]. - In the financial market, A-shares continued to rise, and the Hong Kong stock market also showed an upward trend. The science and technology innovation board celebrated its 6th anniversary, and Central Huijin increased its holdings of ETFs on a large scale in the second quarter [30]. - Overseas, there are various events and statements, including trade negotiations, comments on the Federal Reserve's policies and personnel, and corporate financial reports [10][11][43]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night Market Trends - Domestic commodity market: Six varieties' main contracts closed at the daily limit, and the black series continued to rise at night, with coking coal up 11% and coke up 5.29% [2]. - International precious metal futures: COMEX gold futures rose 1.10% to $3444.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.83% to $39.66 per ounce [3]. - International oil prices: WTI crude oil main contract fell 0.76% to $65.45 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.66% to $68.75 per barrel [4]. - London base metals: Most rose, with LME zinc up 0.53%, LME copper up 0.39%, LME tin up 0.32%, and LME aluminum up 0.21% [4]. - International agricultural product futures: Mixed performance, with US soybeans down 0.17%, US corn down 1.18%, US soybean oil down 0.59%, US soybean meal up 1.13%, and US wheat up 1.34% [5]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The "Regulations on Rural Highways" will be implemented on September 15, 2025, aiming to promote the high-quality development of rural highways [8]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. The balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [8]. - The current market has no obvious unilateral expectation of RMB appreciation or depreciation, and market transactions are rational and orderly [9]. - There are various international events and statements, including trade negotiations, comments on the Federal Reserve's policies and personnel [10][11][12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The next round of China-US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil [15]. - As of the week of July 21, the social inventory of domestic asphalt increased by 0.3%, and the factory inventory decreased by 2.6% [15]. Metal Futures - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will support the stable operation and high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry [17][18]. - China's alumina exports in June 2025 decreased by 17.71% month-on-month but increased by 8.95% year-on-year [18]. - In May 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons, and from January to May, the surplus was 272,000 tons [18]. Black Series Futures - Some steel mills plan to raise the price of wet-quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry-quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on July 23 [20]. - The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports in China increased by 722,500 tons compared with last Monday [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - Russia reduced its wheat production and export volume forecasts for 2025 [22]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June 2025 remained high, but the inventory reached an 18-month high [23]. - It is expected that the new cotton yield per mu in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [23]. - Various other agricultural product data, including soybean, pig, and sugar production and trade information [25][26][28]. Financial Market Finance - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.62% to 3581.86 points, and the market turnover expanding to 1.93 trillion yuan [30]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.54% to 25,130.03 points, and the southbound capital had a net inflow of HK$2.717 billion [30]. - The science and technology innovation board celebrated its 6th anniversary, with 589 companies listed, raising a total of 925.7 billion yuan in IPOs and 186.7 billion yuan in refinancing [30]. - Central Huijin increased its holdings of ETFs by over 200 billion yuan in the second quarter [32]. - Overseas institutions mainly surveyed companies in the electronics, machinery, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metal industries in July [32]. - Zhongyou Insurance triggered a mandatory tender offer by buying 726,000 shares of Green Power Environmental Protection H shares [32]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange took regulatory measures against abnormal trading behavior in *ST Yazhen [32]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company will launch the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Private Enterprise Index and the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Private Enterprise Strategy Index on July 23 [33]. - SenseTime plans to enter the field of embodied intelligence [33]. Industry - The National Data Administration has guided the construction of data annotation bases in 7 cities and plans to layout data industry agglomeration areas in the second half of the year [34]. - 127 domestic games and 7 imported games obtained game licenses in July [36]. - The game "Late Ming: Feather of the Abyss" topped the Steam bestseller list [36]. - The news of "Beijing banning fuel vehicles from ride-hailing platforms" was false [36]. - China's shipbuilding industry maintained its global leading position in the first half of the year [36]. - Telecommunication business revenue in the first half of the year was 905.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1% [37]. Overseas - Trump called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and said that Fed Chairman Powell would leave office soon [38]. - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that tariff revenue was "huge" and supported Powell to complete his term [38]. - Various international events, including trade negotiations, policy statements, and corporate financial reports [38][40][43]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising 0.4%, the S&P 500 rising 0.06%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.39% [43]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX falling 1.09%, the French CAC40 falling 0.69%, and the UK FTSE 100 rising 0.12% [43]. - Coca-Cola's second-quarter adjusted revenue and earnings per share were better than expected [43]. - General Motors' second-quarter revenue and net profit declined [44]. - Lockheed Martin's second-quarter net sales and operating profit were lower than expected, and it lowered its full-year earnings per share forecast [45]. Commodities - Similar to the overnight night market trends, the domestic commodity market had a daily limit surge, and international precious metal, oil, and base metal futures showed different performances [2][3][4][46]. - Russia maintained its forecast for grain production and export volume [48]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was weak, with treasury bond futures closing down [49]. - As of the end of June, overseas institutions held 4.23 trillion yuan of interbank market bonds, accounting for about 2.5% of the total [50]. - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank successfully issued a 20 billion yuan panda bond [50]. - Japanese government bond yields attracted record foreign capital inflows [52]. - US bond yields declined across the board [52]. Foreign Exchange - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the US dollar in the first half of the year, and the market had no obvious unilateral expectation [53]. - The onshore RMB against the US dollar rose 12 points, and the offshore RMB rose 5 points [54][55]. - The US dollar index fell 0.49%, and most non-US currencies rose [54]. Upcoming Events - There are various events scheduled for July 23, including central bank operations, press conferences, and industry exhibitions [56].

黑色建材日报 2025-07-23 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3307 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 83 元/吨（2.574%）。当日注册仓单 86534 吨, 环比持平。主力合约持仓量为 202.4507 万手，环比减少 71405 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3330 元/吨, 环比增加 50/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3370 元/吨, 环比增加 50 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收 盘价为 3477 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 83 元/吨（2.445%）。 当日注册仓单 59549 吨, 环比减少 905 吨。主 力合约持仓量为 158.2445 万手，环比减少 1 ...