晨报 铝锭 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 12 日 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪支撑 关注消费和库存验证 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价偏强震荡，运行重心小幅上移。上周会议结束后首批发 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend, and it will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity shifting downward [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and operate within a range, with low inventory providing some support [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of total construction steel production [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and the daily output affected during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with little price support [2] Aluminum - As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built - in production capacity is 109.22 million tons/year, the total operating capacity is 87.02 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 79.67% [2] - Before the festival, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 61.6% week - on - week and 2.8 percentage points year - on - year. Except for the aluminum cable operating rate rising, other sectors decreased [2] - On May 8, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 620,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from Tuesday and an increase of 6,000 tons from April 30 [2] - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory performance during the May Day holiday was better than expected, and the inventory accumulation was controllable. The inventory continued to decline after the festival, indicating strong consumption resilience [2]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：价格区间整理 关注氧化铝检修情况 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价区间运行。投资者谨慎等待美国贸易政策的进一步消 息，并准备迎接一周密集的经济数据，这些数据可能初步表明美国贸易政 策是否正在产生影响。 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak performance [3]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to undergo short - term range adjustment, with increased volatility, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel [2]. - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to stop production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with some expected to stop after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished product market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, a low - key winter storage this year, and weak price support [3]. Aluminum Ingots - On April 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 724,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from last Thursday and 50,000 tons from last Monday. Low weekend arrivals led to a fast de - stocking pace [3]. - The arrival of domestic aluminum sources decreased significantly last week, and the ex - warehouse performance strengthened after the sharp decline in aluminum prices, so the fast de - stocking pace of domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to continue [3]. - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 56.1% last week. Orders have not recovered significantly, and the volatile aluminum prices have increased downstream enterprises' risk - aversion, resulting in a cold market trading atmosphere [3]. - The US tariff policy may suppress overseas demand, and China's tariff increase on US goods may raise the import cost of the aluminum industry chain but also release an incremental signal. Infrastructure and new - energy stimulus policies may boost aluminum consumption [3]. - The current market is worried about the global economic situation, overseas risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and aluminum price fluctuations have intensified [3]. - The macro - level tariff policy is highly uncertain, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in a range, with attention needed on market sentiment and downstream purchasing [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the daily price changes of various metals, indicating a mixed performance across the sector. Notably, lithium carbonate and copper have shown slight increases, while nickel and zinc have experienced declines [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Daily Metal Price Changes - Lithium Carbonate: 75,000 CNY/ton, daily change +0.23%, year-to-date change +0.13% [2] - Lithium Hydroxide: 70,000 CNY/ton, daily change 0.00%, year-to-date change +0.34% [2] - Copper: 80,000 CNY/ton, daily change +0.30%, year-to-date change +8.88% [2] - Gold: 700.7 CNY/gram, daily change +0.82%, year-to-date change +13.38% [2] - Electrolytic Nickel: 131,000 CNY/ton, daily change -2.89%, year-to-date change +4.63% [2] - Aluminum: 21,000 CNY/ton, daily change -0.05%, year-to-date change +5.00% [2] - Lead: 18,000 CNY/ton, daily change -0.45%, year-to-date change +4.53% [2] - Zinc: 24,000 CNY/ton, daily change -0.66%, year-to-date change -7.47% [2] - Tin: 281,000 CNY/ton, daily change -0.24%, year-to-date change +14.20% [2] - Silver: 8.4 CNY/gram, daily change +0.19%, year-to-date change +11.78% [2] - Antimony: 178,000 CNY/ton, daily change +1.73%, year-to-date change +27.28% [2] - Molybdenum: 444,000 CNY/ton, daily change 0.00%, year-to-date change -3.27% [2] - Titanium Sponge: 53,000 CNY/ton, daily change 0.00%, year-to-date change +8.16% [2] - White Tungsten Concentrate: 140,000 CNY/ton, daily change 0.00%, year-to-date change -2.45% [2] - Magnesium: 17,000 CNY/ton, daily change -0.63%, year-to-date change -3.36% [2] - Neodymium Praseodymium Oxide: 448,000 CNY/ton, daily change 0.00%, year-to-date change +11.18% [2] - Metal Silicon: 14,000 CNY/ton, daily change 0.00%, year-to-date change -4.63% [2]

晨会纪要（2025/3/12） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 行业专题评述 行业基本面边际改善，关税政策持续扰动市场——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/3/12） [Table_MorningSection] 行业专题评述 行业基本面边际改善，关税政策持续扰动市场——金属行业周报 张珂（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150523120001） 投资要点 1.行业新闻 （1）2025-2029 年巴西稀土项目投资将达到 21.7 亿美元； （2）美国 2 月非农人数略低于预期。 2.公司新闻 兴业银锡全资子公司西乌珠穆沁旗银漫矿业有限责任公司采矿承包方河南锦源建设有限公司银漫矿业工程 项目部在采准作业时发生一起安全事故。 3.本周行业策略与个股推荐 （1）钢铁：据我的钢铁网消息，近期建筑工地资金到位率逐渐增 ...