>?@ABCDEFGHI2025-06-19 高聪 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 !"#$$%&'$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"# 6 $%&'()*+,-./01 ——!"#$%&'&2 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 5 月利率决议，将利率维持在 4.25%- 4.50%。 （1）关税扰动、分歧加大：美联储本次会议释放出关税对通胀形成干扰、内部对降息 路径分歧加大的信号，显示政策转向更为谨慎和依赖数据。 （2）删除了对滞胀的担忧：美联储声明删除了关于失业和通胀同时上升的表述，显示 其对 "滞胀" 风险的担忧有所缓解，政策重心重新回归对通胀单一目标的观察与评估。 &'"( n !"# 6 $%&'()* +,-./0123 在 6 月 FOMC 会议中，美联储维持联邦基金利率在 4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第四次按兵 不动。尽管通胀依然高于 2%的目标， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index market declined due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, which increased global risk - aversion sentiment. European and American stock indices mostly fell, and A - share sentiment cooled down. This week, the stock index is still at a relatively over - valued position within the oscillation range and is expected to continue to bottom out. The impact of short - term foreign capital sentiment fluctuations on A - shares is limited, and there are no clear domestic trading events in the short term. The market will continue the decline trend under the characteristics of shrinking volume and low volatility, and it is recommended that investors mainly wait and see. The next breakthrough window may appear in early July, with attention paid to the new round of tariff disturbances caused by the expiration of Trump's 90 - day exemption policy and possible hedging policies from the domestic Politburo meeting. In the medium - to - long - term, the current discounts of IC and IM have reached the highest level in the past two years. The annualized discount rate of the current - quarter IC contract is 11 - 12%, and that of the IM contract is 15 - 16%. These two types of contracts can bring more substantial excess returns in the allocation level compared to index products such as ETFs, and it is still valuable and potential for long - term index investment investors to hold long positions [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18th to 19th, with the theme of "Financial Opening - up, Cooperation and High - quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape". Central financial management department leaders will give speeches and release major financial policies. US President Trump's pressure on Iran makes the market speculate that the US may directly participate in Israel's attack on Iran [5] 3.2 Stock Index Disk Review - **Disk Tracking**: In the previous trading day, A - shares fluctuated narrowly. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.04%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.09%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.29%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.10%. The shipping (+2.44%) and energy equipment (+2.01%) sectors led the gains, while the office supplies (-3.45%) and soft drink (-2.80%) sectors lagged. More than 2,200 stocks rose, and 61 stocks hit the daily limit, with a poor profit - making effect [5] - **Technical Tracking**: After the previous oversold rebound, the stock indices generally approached the upper edge of the gap, with stronger pressure at the daily and weekly levels, and the monthly - line trend is still oscillating [5] - **Fund Flow**: Recently, the trading volume of A - shares has been hovering at a low level, staying at the 1.2 - trillion - yuan level yesterday. The short - term market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient upward momentum [5] 3.3 Core Logic Summary - The decline in the stock index market last week was due to geopolitical conflicts. This week, the stock index is over - valued and may continue to decline. The impact of foreign capital is limited, and there are no clear trading events. The market will decline with shrinking volume and low volatility. The next breakthrough may be in early July. In the long - term, IC and IM contracts have high allocation value [3] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - **Futures Operation**: In the short term, it is recommended to mainly wait and see, with the lower support level seen at the position on April 9th. For monthly operations, maintain the idea of band trading [4] - **Option Operation**: The implied volatility of stock index options continues to flatten, with the weekly IV of the current - month at - the - money CSI 300 option remaining at 12 - 13%. Given the low - level oscillation of volatility, the cost of buying options during the waiting - for - breakthrough stage is expected to be high, and the premium recovered from selling options is limited. It is recommended to wait for the second wave of rising volatility before engaging in double - selling operations [4]

2025 年 6 月 18 日 总量研究 耐用品消费转弱，美国消费显著降温 ——2025 年 5 月美国零售数据点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 联系人：周欣平 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 关税扰动显现，美国消费数据转弱—— 2025 年 4 月 美 国 零 售 数 据 点 评 （2025-05-16） 关税扰动导致美国消费节奏前置——2025 年 3 月美国零售数据点评（2025-04-17） 如何理解 2 月美国低于预期的消费数据？ — — 2025 年 2 月 美 国 零 售 数 据 点 评 （2025-03-18） 美国消费如期转弱，年内降息必要性增加 — — 2025 年 1 月 美 国 零 售 数 据 点 评 （2025-02-15） 美国消费转弱，年内仍存 2-3 次降息空间 — —2024 年 12 月 美 国零 售数据 点 评 （2025-01-17） 如何理解 11 月偏弱的美国核心消费数 据？——2024 年 11 月美国零售数据点 ...

Export Data Summary - In May, China's exports amounted to $316.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, down from 8.1% in the previous month[1] - Imports totaled $212.9 billion, showing a decline of 3.4%, compared to a previous decline of 0.2%[1] - The trade surplus reached $103.2 billion, an increase from $96.18 billion in the previous month[1] Trade Dynamics - Tariff fluctuations have disrupted global trade, contributing to the decline in export growth[1] - The "grab export" effect has provided some resilience, with container throughput increasing by 1.4% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year in May[1] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant drop of 34.5% year-on-year, while exports to the EU increased by 12%[1][12] Sector Performance - Integrated circuits and automotive exports showed strong growth, with integrated circuits up 33.4% and automotive exports including chassis up 13.7%[3][19] - Labor-intensive product exports declined, with a notable drop in mobile phone exports by 23.2%[3][19] Future Outlook - The overall export growth for 2025 is projected to be around 1.5%, influenced by tariff impacts and global trade fragmentation[24] - Continued demand for Chinese products in ASEAN and EU markets is expected to support export resilience[25]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts that the US manufacturing PMI may continue to fluctuate below the growth line by mid-year, reflecting a broader trend in global manufacturing dynamics [1] Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI Trends - In May 2025, the global manufacturing PMI index exhibited characteristics of "China's stability, emerging market divergence, European stabilization, and US decline" [1] - The easing of tariffs has provided a short-term boost to exports, but negative expectations for overseas markets are gradually becoming evident [1] Group 2: Regional Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI showed little change, indicating signs of temporary stabilization [1] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index recorded 48.5 in May, characterized by "weak supply and demand, persistent inflation, a cooling job market, and a significant decline in foreign trade" [1] Group 3: Economic Impact and Forecast - The overall impact of tariff disruptions on the US and global macroeconomy is beginning to manifest, with expectations of a slight decline in US economic readings [1] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the US manufacturing PMI will likely remain below the growth line through mid-year [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff disturbances intensify the pessimistic expectation of off - season demand, and the expectation of domestic incremental policies is weak. The short - term decline of carbon elements causes the collapse of the cost support of finished products, and the overall valuation decline of the black series drags down the iron ore price. Iron ore's short - term trading focus tends to trade strong reality + weak expectation. Demand has basically peaked but the decline slope is low, and the supply side continues to recover but may maintain a year - on - year decrease. It is expected that iron ore will remain relatively strong in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to whether the coking coal price stabilizes and whether the market sentiment can recover [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - The US imposing steel tariffs on the world yesterday intensified the pessimistic expectation of terminal demand, leading to a collective decline of the black series. Recently, the black series has been trading on the pessimistic demand expectation. With the expectation of increased supply of carbon elements, iron elements are relatively strong and the discount of the futures price to the spot price is higher than the historical average. Carbon elements are constantly conceding benefits to iron elements. The demand for iron ore has declined from the high level but is expected to remain relatively high, supporting the price [2] Supply - The current period's overseas ore shipments have rebounded month - on - month. Shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions have significantly rebounded, but the volume of Australian ore shipped to China has declined month - on - month. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady rebound in shipments, with the marginal support from the supply side weakening [2] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from the high level but is still in the high - level area. Hot metal production has declined for three consecutive weeks, with the current period at 241.91 (month - on - month - 1.69). Short - term demand has peaked, but the current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. It is expected that hot metal production will show an overall high - level decline trend with a relatively gentle downward slope. High demand is the core factor supporting the price [2] Inventory - The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to be destocked in the first half of June. Overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the staged destocking at the high - inventory level is difficult to provide upward momentum [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is a large - range consolidation. The Fed's potential delay in interest rate cuts in the second half of the year and the tense international situation restrict the upward space of aluminum prices, while the first cut of domestic 1 - year and 5 - year LPR this year supports aluminum prices. The supply - demand relationship remains strong overall, but tariff disturbances are significant, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [4][12]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience a short - term decline followed by a rebound in the first week after the Dragon Boat Festival, but may face pressure around mid - June, with an overall expectation of a fluctuating market [12]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the 45 million - ton ceiling, and the annual output growth is limited. The global primary aluminum output growth rate is only 1.9%. The demand in the aluminum industry shows a differentiated pattern among different sectors, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a historically low level [9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The mid - term trend is a large - range consolidation. The Fed's potential delay in interest rate cuts to July and December and the tense international situation restrict the upward space of aluminum prices, while the domestic LPR cut supports prices. The supply - demand relationship is strong overall, but tariff disturbances are large, and the market is expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000, and short - term trading within the range of 19,500 - 20,500 is appropriate [4]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: For the SHFE aluminum 2507 contract, maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000, with an expected range of 19,800 - 20,500. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [6]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: For the SHFE aluminum 2507 contract, continue to maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: It is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [8]. 3.3 Overall View 3.3.1 Supply - related - **Bauxite Market**: The short - term supply of domestic bauxite will remain tight. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually emerging, and the bauxite shipment volume from Guinea is expected to decline significantly from June [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of May 29, the total built - in capacity of national metallurgical alumina is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 86.67 million tons/year. The weekly national alumina operating rate increased by 0.19 percentage points to 78.21% due to the end of some enterprises' overhauls, but the operating capacity is still at a low level [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to remain at a high level. The second - batch capacity replacement project of an aluminum plant from Shandong to Yunnan is expected to start in the third quarter, and the first - batch project is expected to achieve output in May. The global primary aluminum output growth rate is only 1.9% [9]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,000 yuan/ton, and the order growth due to pre - export rush at the end of May is not obvious [9]. 3.3.2 Demand - related - **Aluminum Profiles**: The national profile operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 57% this week. The building materials sector is supported by infrastructure project orders in the north, but some small and medium - sized enterprises in the north and south report limited infrastructure orders. The operating rate of photovoltaic frame sample enterprises shows a differentiated pattern [11]. - **Aluminum Plate, Strip and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 67.6%. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 71.6%. The short - term operating rate of the aluminum foil industry is expected to rise slightly [11]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable and wire enterprises remained stable at 64.8%. The follow - up operating rate is expected to remain within a certain range [11]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 54.6%. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 53.0%, and the subsequent operating rate may continue to decline weakly [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - related - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 509,000 tons, a decrease of about 8% from last week and about 35% lower than the same period last year, at a low level since 2017. The aluminum rod inventory is 126,000 tons, a decrease of about 1% from last week and about 43% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been declining since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990 [11]. 3.3.4 Profit and Market Expectation - **Alumina Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 700 yuan/ton [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Expectation**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to continue to decline, but the trading atmosphere may weaken. The international situation may affect the overseas aluminum price and then the domestic spot aluminum price. Next week, the spot aluminum price is expected to fluctuate, and the trading range of electrolytic aluminum futures is 19,800 - 20,200 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of some bauxite varieties remained unchanged this week, while the price of alumina in Henan increased by 2.95% week - on - week. The price of ice晶石 increased by 9.11% week - on - week, and the price of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 0.42% week - on - week [13]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - Domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and it is expected that the arrival of aluminum ore at ports may decrease from June. Alumina inventory continued to decline slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum and related products such as aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is at a low level, and the LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [15][17]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - For the whole year of 2025, domestic production growth is limited, and the import impact is weakened due to the inverted theoretical import profit. Domestic supply - demand is expected to tighten compared to 2024, but there is a high probability of becoming looser again in the seasonal off - season of June and July [18]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - **SHFE Aluminum Futures Price Curve**: The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is neutral to strong. Under the situation of low inventory and pre - export rush expectation, the spot price supports the futures price [31]. - **SHFE Aluminum Futures Price Monthly Seasonality**: From the statistical data of the past 10 years, the probability of rise and fall in May and June is relatively balanced. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market may fluctuate slightly in the first week, but may face pressure around mid - June, with an overall expectation of a fluctuating market [35]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) discount is 5.75 US dollars/ton. The A00 aluminum ingot spot reported a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,260 yuan/ton this week [37][42]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum Variety Fund Trends**: The latest net long position remained stable, and both the long and short camps increased their positions. The short - term market may be in a consolidation phase [45]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Variety Fund Trends**: The net short position remained stable this week, and both the long and short camps increased their positions, indicating increased market divergence. The short - term direction is not clear, and the market is expected to fluctuate [48].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each financial derivative product, the following outlooks are given: - **Stock Index Futures**: Neutral (suggests a wait - and - see approach) [6] - **Stock Index Options**: Neutral (suggests a wait - and - see approach for direction strategies) [6] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral (suggests a trend of oscillation) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: External factors bring short - term positive news, but due to uncertainties in tariff policies and lack of fundamental support, investors are advised to wait and see instead of actively increasing positions [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The volatility is further suppressed, and the market has weak expectations for fluctuations. Direction strategies suggest waiting and seeing, with a focus on covered call strategies and light - position long - volatility strategies [2][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Market risk appetite has increased, suppressing the bullish sentiment in the bond market. Attention should be paid to upcoming economic data and central bank operations, and different strategies are proposed for different trading purposes [6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The market volume increased and prices rose, with the All - A Index up 1.17%. The catalyst was the US court's prevention of Trump's tariff policy, leading to a general rise in the Asia - Pacific market [6]. - **Futures Market Signals**: The total position of IM increased by nearly 30,000 contracts, and the discount of the current - quarter contract of IM narrowed, indicating active long - position capital layout [6]. - **Investment Advice**: Wait and see due to uncertainties in tariff policies and the low cost - performance of small - cap stocks [6]. Stock Index Options - **Market Liquidity**: Driven by the strong performance of the underlying assets, the trading volume increased by nearly 50%, mainly concentrated in the morning session [2][6]. - **Volatility**: Volatility declined rapidly after the mid - day session, with both call and put volatilities decreasing, indicating weak market expectations for fluctuations [2][6]. - **Investment Advice**: Wait and see for direction strategies, focus on covered call strategies, and lightly position in long - volatility strategies at low levels [2][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures continued to be weak, with the T main contract opening lower and trading at a low level throughout the day [3][6][7]. - **Influencing Factors**: Uncertainties in Trump's tariff policy, strong stock market performance, and upcoming 5 - month PMI data affected market sentiment [3][6][8]. - **Investment Advice**: Trend strategy: oscillation; Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; Basis strategy: appropriately pay attention to basis widening; Curve strategy: steeper curve has higher odds in the medium term [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - **US Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending May 24, 2025, was 240,000, higher than the previous value of 227,000 and the forecast of 230,000. The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in April 2025 is expected to be 2.6%, and the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May 2025 is expected to be 51 [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Airlines**: Starting from June 5, 2025, airlines will adjust the fuel surcharge for domestic flights. Flights of 800 kilometers or less will be exempt from the surcharge, while flights over 800 kilometers will charge 10 yuan per passenger per segment [9]. - **Cultural Exports**: Four departments jointly released the list of key cultural export enterprises and projects for 2025 - 2026, identifying 404 enterprises and 121 projects [10]. - **Tariffs**: The Chinese side urges the US to completely cancel unilateral tariff - imposing measures, and the US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff policies were illegal [10]. - **Credit Bonds**: Multiple credit bond ETFs have received approval from the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation to be included in the repurchase collateral pool [10].

Core Viewpoint - April's profit growth is primarily driven by short-term improvements in costs and expenses, but attention is needed on potential profit decline pressures in the third quarter due to tariff disturbances [3][76]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In April, industrial profits increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.9%, mainly due to improved cost and expense pressures [3][9]. - The contribution of costs and expenses to overall profit improved, with costs contributing +2.7 percentage points and expenses +0.5 percentage points, while other losses contributed negatively [3][9]. - Actual operating revenue showed resilience, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, contributing 4.9% to overall profit growth [3][9]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Industry Performance - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 86%, with a year-on-year marginal decline of 12.6 basis points [3][17]. - Downstream consumer manufacturing industries saw a cost rate increase of 59.7 basis points to 84.3%, which was significantly lower than seasonal trends [3][17]. - In contrast, the petrochemical and metallurgy chains experienced weaker cost performance, with respective cost rates rising to 86.5% and declining to 87% [3][17]. Group 3: Revenue Support from Infrastructure and Exports - Benefiting from infrastructure investment and export boosts, the coal and metallurgy chains, along with downstream consumer industries, provided significant revenue support [4][27]. - The actual revenue growth rate fell by 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, with the petrochemical industry experiencing a notable decline of 3 percentage points to 2.1% [4][27]. - The consumer manufacturing chain maintained a relatively high revenue growth rate of 7.8%, supported by short-term export boosts [4][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Uncertainties - Future profit recovery remains uncertain due to potential lagging effects of tariffs and low capacity utilization in mid and downstream sectors [4][33]. - Historical data indicates that profit margins have a greater impact on profits than revenue, with current low capacity utilization keeping consumer manufacturing cost rates high [4][33]. - Previous experiences suggest that post-tariff implementation may lead to declines in asset turnover and rising fixed costs, resulting in profit growth rates declining more than revenue [4][33]. Group 5: Regular Tracking of Industrial Performance - Industrial enterprise profits showed a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points, primarily due to improved profit margins [5][36]. - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises remained stable, with significant increases in the food and beverage sectors [5][50]. - Inventory growth slightly declined, indicating that terminal demand still requires further recovery [5][61].