晶科能源董事长李仙德表示，本轮光伏行业的供求失衡是多因素叠加作用的结果，长期维度包括行业从 补贴时代完全进入平价时代的切换，中期维度包括产业自身的扩张——收缩周期，以及主流电池技术从 PERC向TOPCon切换；短期维度包括2022年的一些国际事件对欧洲天然气价格和新能源需求的剧烈刺 激，造成本轮行业供需失衡的程度较大，时间较长。 阿特斯董事、总经理、首席执行官庄岩称，行业供过于求局面目前没有出现根本性变化，2025年公司在 行业产品价格有明显回升之前，继续平衡组件出货量和利润的关系，优先保证高价市场订单。 如何应对关税扰动：预计影响可消化，持续本土化与多元化布局 中国光伏产品作为出口新三样之一，在全球市场享有极高的份额，头部企业营收的相当部分来自海外市 场。近期国际关税政策的扰动也让企业再度思考出海策略。 5月13日，四家光伏组件头部企业晶科能源（688223.SH）、晶澳科技（002459）（002459.SZ）、天合 光能（688599.SH）、阿特斯（688472.SH）同日召开业绩会。 光伏行业曾是新能源板块最热门的赛道，但在供需失衡、贸易壁垒等多重因素冲击下，去年多家光伏企 业交出了史上最差成绩单 ...

这位分析师还补充说，华尔街对沃尔玛的每股收益共识预期是可以实现的，他将重点关注公司如何评估 关税对全年业绩展望的影响。 "我们预计WMT会传达与其投资者日上类似的信息……现在还不是放弃2025财年业绩指引（中值为每股 收益2.55美元）的时候，"Kelly表示。"WMT通常在给出指引时会留有超预期的空间，而宏观疲软和关 税不确定性显然至少削弱了一部分上行潜力。" "WMT有望借助关税扰动加速市场份额的扩大，"Kelly写道，"其资产负债表足够稳健，能够保持库存流 通并进行采购调整；在中国之外获得供应能力，可能会以竞争对手的份额为代价；采用组合式定价策略 意味着WMT在关税商品上的提价幅度可能低于其他公司；其产品种类广泛，也有利于实现替代效应。 WMT并非完全不受影响，但显然比大多数公司准备得更充分。" Kelly的评论出现在市场因美国对进口商品征收高额关税而波动不安的背景下，这些关税引发了全球市 场的不确定性。他的评论也正值沃尔玛下周即将发布季度财报之前。 "WMT看起来有望在动荡背景下交出一份稳健的财报。在持续的宏观不确定性、注重性价比的消费者以 及公司自身的改善措施推动下，其市场份额可能进一步扩大；一个表 ...

Group 1 - The Peruvian government has implemented a curfew in the Pataz region due to rising crime, suspending all mining activities for 30 days, which may raise concerns about the stability of copper supply from Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer [1] - Peru's copper production for 2024 is projected at 2.736 million tons, accounting for approximately 10% of global output, indicating the significance of any disruptions in this region [1] - The Pataz region primarily produces gold and silver, with limited copper production, suggesting that the impact on precious metal prices may be relatively minor despite the mining suspension [1] Group 2 - The overall weakness in non-ferrous metals is attributed to two main factors: the impact of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration on the US economy and the significant fluctuations in demand expectations due to tariffs [2] - Domestic copper consumption in China exceeded expectations with an 8% growth in apparent consumption in the first quarter, but a seasonal decline is anticipated post-May, which may weaken the demand-side support for copper prices [2] - Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about copper prices in the medium term, despite potential high-level corrections, as the fundamentals appear strong, and the market is currently experiencing low inventory levels [3]

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-05-06 4 月 PMI 回落，关税扰动初现 ——宏观景气度系列四 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 4 月中国制造业 PMI 为 49.0（-1.5pct MoM）；非制造业 PMI 为 51.9（-1.5pct MoM）。 核心观点 ■ 制造业 PMI 供给：制造业生产回落。4 月生产指数为 49.8，较上月变化-2.8 。供应商配送时间指数 为 50.2，较上月变化-0.1 。 需求：制造业需求回落。4 月新订单指数为 49.2，较上月变化-2.6 。新出口订单指数为 44.7，较上月变化-4.3 。在手订单指数为 43.2，较上月变化-2.4 。 供求平衡：供需关系小幅改善但未扭转。4 月供需指数（需求-供给）为-0.6 ，较上月变 化 0.2 ，较去年同期变化 1.2 ，较过去三年均值变化 1.1 。 价格：制造业盈利收缩。4 月原材料价格指数为 47，较上月变化-2.8 。出厂价格指数为 44.8，较上月变化-3.1 。出厂价格-原材 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing PMI index for April 2025 shows a slight decline to 49.8, indicating economic uncertainty due to tariff disruptions, with varying performances across regions [1][2]. Regional Analysis Asia - Economic performance in Asia remains mixed, with Japan and India showing marginal improvements in manufacturing PMI, while China's and South Korea's indices fell to 49 and 47.5 respectively. India's PMI rose to 58.2, and Japan's to 48.7 [3]. Europe - Most European countries saw marginal improvements in manufacturing PMI, yet they remain in contraction territory. Germany's PMI increased to 48.4, above previous values and expectations. The Eurozone's GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 has rebounded above zero, but tariff impacts continue to pose risks [3]. Americas - North American economies are experiencing a slight downturn, with Mexico and Canada's manufacturing PMIs dropping to 44.8 and 45.3 respectively, influenced by U.S. trade policies and declining output [3]. U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3 points to 48.7, continuing a downward trend from the previous quarter. Key characteristics include a decline in supply and demand, rising inflation, a cooling job market, and significant drops in export orders [4]. Export Trends - China's overall export growth is expected to face pressure in Q2 2025. In March, South Korea's export growth improved to 3.7%, while China's export growth surged to 12.4%, driven by low base effects and strong performance in semiconductor and machinery sectors. However, most goods are anticipated to be negatively impacted by trade frictions [5].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - April official manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the sector[3] - New export orders fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, reflecting significant external demand weakness[4] - Industrial raw material purchase prices dropped to 47.0%, a decline of 2.8 percentage points, suggesting ongoing price pressures[21] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - April construction PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, with new orders showing mixed trends[22] - Special bond issuance progress reached approximately 27.1% by April 30, outperforming the 18.0% of the same period in 2024, indicating strong infrastructure momentum[22] - Service sector PMI remained relatively stable at 50.1%, with new orders declining by 1.2 percentage points to 45.9%[32] Group 3: Tariff Disturbance Phases - The first phase (May-June) is characterized by a slight recovery in exports, projected at +0.9% year-on-year, despite increasing downward pressure[6] - The second phase (July-August) may see reduced production schedules and workforce optimization among export firms if tariff conditions do not improve[6] - The current period is critical for policy decisions, with expectations for more flexible responses to economic pressures from both China and the U.S.[6] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes and a sharper-than-expected recession in the U.S. economy[7]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.04.30」 铁矿石市场周报 关税扰动VS库存增加，铁矿石期价震荡偏弱 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 行情回顾 1. 价格：截至4月30日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为703.5（-5.5）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉805（+2）元/干吨。 2. 发运：本期澳巴发运总量环比增加320.7万吨。2025年04月21日-04月27日Mysteel澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2758.4万吨，环比增 加320.7万吨。澳洲发运量1995.2万吨，环比增加196.0万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1647.2万吨，环比增加72.9万吨。巴西发 运量763.2万吨，环比增加124.6万吨。 3. 到港：本期47港到港量增加230.4万吨。2025年04月21日-04月27日中国47港到港总量2679.6万吨，环比增加230.4万吨；中国 45港到港总量2512.8万 ...

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/4/29 | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,210 | -27↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1332134 | -28759↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 110,790 | -13756↓ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -21 | +7↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 347020 | -2653↓ HC2505-RB2505合约价差(元/吨) | 110 | +2↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,280.00 | -40.00↓ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,290.00 | -10.00↓ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,320.00 | -20.00↓ 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,220.00 | -20.00↓ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 70. ...

Group 1: Consumer Goods - The core consumer goods include electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers, primarily targeting high-end markets in Europe and the US [3] - In March 2025, US retail sales increased by 1.4%, surpassing market expectations of 1.3%, with core retail sales rising by 0.5% [3] - The increase in March retail data is attributed to preemptive consumer purchasing ahead of tariff impositions, which may lead to a decline in future retail performance due to demand being pulled forward [3] - Consumer confidence in the US fell by 6.2 percentage points to 50.8 in April, the lowest level since July 2022, indicating potential pressure on future retail data [3] Group 2: Capital Goods - The export characteristics of industrial sewing machines show Asia as the largest market, accounting for 68% of export value in 2024, with key countries including Turkey, Vietnam, and Singapore [5] - Forklift exports are primarily directed towards Asia and Europe, with respective export value shares of 30% and 34% in 2024 [5] - Machine tool exports are predominantly to Asia, maintaining around 50% of export value from 2019 to 2024, with notable fluctuations in exports to Russia [5] - Mining machinery exports are led by Asia, Africa, and Europe, with cumulative export value shares of 41%, 22%, and 20% respectively in the first quarter of 2025 [5] Group 3: Engineering Machinery - Cumulative export value of engineering machinery grew by 10% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, with Africa showing the highest growth rate at 128% [6] - The cumulative export value to Asia accounted for 43% of total exports, while exports to Africa increased significantly, raising its share to 19% [6] - In March 2025, the export growth rates for major engineering machinery categories were 6% for general machinery, 14% for excavators, 21% for tractors, and 24% for mining machinery [9] - Cumulative growth rates for these categories in the first quarter of 2025 were 10% for general machinery, 22% for excavators, 31% for tractors, and 18% for mining machinery [9]

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