Economic Growth Outlook - Morocco's economy is expected to maintain robust growth, with projected growth rates of 4.4% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, driven by agricultural recovery and strong domestic demand despite external uncertainties [1][2] Agricultural Sector - The 2024/2025 agricultural season is anticipated to see a grain production of 4.4 million tons, a 41% increase year-on-year, contributing 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025 and 0.3 percentage points in 2026 [1] - Agricultural value added is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026 [1] Non-Agricultural Sectors - The non-agricultural sectors are projected to grow by 4.3% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, with industrial, construction, and service sectors as key drivers [2] - The secondary sector is expected to contribute 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in both years, with specific growth rates of 4.2% and 4.1% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - The construction sector is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, supported by events like the Africa Cup in 2025 and the World Cup in 2030 [2] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is anticipated to be the core growth driver, with expected growth rates of 5.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, contributing 5.8 and 5 percentage points to GDP respectively [2] - Household consumption is projected to increase by 3.6% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026, while government consumption is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 4% [2] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to grow by 9.8% in 2025 and 7.2% in 2026, following a 10.9% increase in 2024 [2] Trade and External Factors - Net exports are expected to continue dragging down economic growth, with the trade deficit projected to rise from 19.1% of GDP in 2024 to 20.1% in 2026 [3] - The current account deficit is expected to remain in the range of 1.8% to 1.9% [3] Fiscal Outlook - Fiscal revenue is projected to increase to 19.3% of GDP in 2025 and 19.4% in 2026, with the fiscal deficit rate expected to decrease from 4% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2026 [3] - Government debt is expected to improve, with domestic debt decreasing by 3 percentage points over three years [3] Monetary Policy - Non-financial sector credit is expected to grow by 7% in 2025, with broad money supply growth remaining above 6% [3] - Foreign exchange reserves are projected to cover five months of import needs [3]

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1][3] - The growth rate for Q1 was 5.4% and for Q2 was 5.2%, indicating a steady increase compared to the same period last year [3] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, marking it as the main driver of growth [3][4] - High-tech industries saw an increase in value added by 9.5% year-on-year, with "three new" industries expected to account for about 18% of GDP in 2024 [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment potential remains significant, despite fluctuations in investment growth due to external complexities and internal market conditions [5] - The decline in traditional industry investments, particularly in real estate, has increased pressure on overall investment growth [5] Consumer Market - The consumer market showed signs of recovery, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [6] - There are optimistic expectations for consumer growth, particularly in sectors like cultural tourism, healthcare, and elder care [6] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development companies saw a narrowing decline in funding, with total funds reaching 50,202 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.4% year-on-year [7][8] - The sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in previous periods, indicating a potential market recovery [9][10] Policy Support - Local governments are optimizing housing policies to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, which is expected to enhance market confidence [11]

Economic Growth - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, showing resilience despite external pressures [1][4] - The GDP growth rate for the first quarter was 5.4%, while the second quarter saw a slight decrease to 5.2%, indicating a stable upward trend overall [4][10] Employment - The average urban survey unemployment rate for the first half of the year was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter, with June's rate at 5.0% [5][6] Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.4% [7][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.8%, indicating stable price levels overall [7][8] International Trade - The import and export scale remained stable at over 20 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [9] - As of the end of June, foreign exchange reserves stood at 33,174 billion USD, maintaining above 3.2 trillion USD for 19 consecutive months [9] Domestic Demand - Domestic consumption was identified as the main driver of GDP growth, contributing 52% to the economic increase, with retail sales reaching 24.55 trillion yuan, a 5% year-on-year growth [11][12] - Fixed asset investment totaled 24.9 trillion yuan, with a nominal growth of 2.8%, and an actual growth of 5.3% after adjusting for price factors [12] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector showed strong performance, particularly in high-tech industries, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5% in high-tech manufacturing value added [13] Future Outlook - The economic outlook for the second half of the year remains stable, with expectations for continued growth supported by policy measures and financial support for the real economy [14][15][16]

15日，国新办就2025年上半年国民经济运行情况举行新闻发布会。 国家统计局副局长盛来运在会上表示，上半年，经济运行总体平稳、稳中向好，生产需求稳定增长，就 业形势总体稳定，居民收入继续增加，新动能成长壮大，高质量发展取得新进展，社会大局保持稳定。 经济运行"稳"的主基调没有变 盛来运表示，上半年一个很突出的特点就是经济运行"稳"。增长稳中略升，上半年GDP同比增长5.3%， 增速比去年同期和全年均提升0.3个百分点。调查失业率总体平稳，今年以来，月度调查失业率基本在 5.0%—5.4%区间波动。物价低位运行，基本平稳。国际收支基本平衡，货物贸易进出口创同期新高， 外汇储备维持在3.2万亿美元以上。从以上四大宏观指标看，经济运行"稳"的主基调没有变。 视频：国家统计局：上半年GDP同比增长5.3%来源：中国新闻网 下半年中国经济保持稳定增长有支撑 盛来运称，不少国际机构还有一些投行对全球经济预测发表展望报告，多数机构都是预测下半年全球经 济放缓，但这些机构大多不约而同调高了中国经济增长的预期。这显示了国际机构和投行对中国经济发 展的信心。从下半年情况看，尽管外部环境还有不少不确定性，内部结构调整的压力较大。但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that domestic demand, particularly consumption, is the main driver of GDP growth in the first half of the year, with significant contributions from final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports [1] Group 1: Economic Contributions - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to the economy, indicating its crucial role in driving growth [1] - Capital formation contributed 16.8% to economic growth, with a total contribution rate of 24.7% in the second quarter [1] - Net exports contributed 31.2% to the economy, with a contribution rate of 23% in the second quarter [1] Group 2: Quarterly Performance - In the second quarter, final consumption expenditure's contribution to GDP growth increased slightly to 52.3% compared to the first quarter [1] - The contribution of capital formation in the second quarter was noted at 24.7%, reflecting its importance in the overall economic structure [1] - The net export contribution in the second quarter was recorded at 23%, showcasing its ongoing relevance to economic performance [1]

Group 1 - The average contribution rate of domestic demand to China's economic growth over the past four years reached 86.4%, with an annual economic growth rate of 5.5% [1][3] - The strong domestic demand has become a stabilizing force for China's economy amidst rising external uncertainties and geopolitical complexities [1][2] - Consumer confidence has gradually recovered, with retail sales of consumer goods exceeding 47 trillion yuan in 2023, and service consumption emerging as the fastest-growing sector [1][2] Group 2 - Investment is shifting from "quantitative expansion" to "qualitative improvement," focusing on new infrastructure, high-tech manufacturing, and green low-carbon projects [2] - Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and digital healthcare are becoming new drivers of domestic demand [2] - The new development pattern emphasizes domestic circulation as the mainstay, with a strategic shift from export-driven growth to domestic-driven growth [3]

国家统计局副局长盛来运：上半年，内需是促进我国经济增长的主动力。 （新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Convertible Bond Index has reached a ten-year high, leading to impressive performance from convertible bond funds, with over ten thematic funds achieving a net asset value growth rate exceeding 10% this year, the highest being 13.42% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 11, the China Convertible Bond Index peaked at 452.27 points, marking an 8.75% increase year-to-date [3]. - Several convertible bond thematic funds have shown remarkable performance, with 中欧可转债债券A leading at 13.42%, followed by others like 博时转债增强A and 南方昌元可转债A, all exceeding 12% growth [3][4]. - Convertible bond ETFs have also performed well, with 博时中证可转债及可交换债券ETF achieving an 8.58% return and 海富通上证投资级可转债ETF at 6.71% year-to-date [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market environment has favored active management funds, allowing them to capture excess returns by leveraging the characteristics of convertible bonds in a market with significant structural differentiation and active small-cap stocks [1][4]. - The demand for "fixed income plus" products has surged due to the challenges in obtaining capital gains from pure bond assets, with convertible bonds seen as a viable option for generating returns [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fund managers suggest focusing on "technology + dividends + domestic demand" for investment strategies, highlighting sectors such as AI, semiconductors, automotive parts, and new consumption trends [6][7]. - The outlook for the second half of the year remains positive, with expectations of continued opportunities in the convertible bond market, particularly in small-cap themes [6][7]. - There is a consensus on the importance of structural opportunities over mere positioning, with a focus on sectors like precious metals, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7].

Economic Growth and Contributions - China's GDP has achieved a "four consecutive jumps" over the past five years, with an expected increase of over 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to "recreating a Yangtze River Delta" [1] - The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth is over 86.4%, highlighting its role as the main driver of China's economy [3] - Final consumption contributed an average of 56.2% to economic growth, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [4] Infrastructure Development - The national comprehensive transportation network has a completion rate of over 90%, covering over 80% of counties and serving about 90% of the economy and population [7] - The logistics cost savings for society are projected to exceed 4 billion yuan in 2024, with an additional expected savings of around 3 billion yuan this year [7] - The average hourly throughput at national ports is expected to reach 38,000 standard containers by 2024, a 26% increase from 2020 [8] Innovation and Technology - R&D expenditure increased by nearly 50% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," reaching an increment of 1.2 trillion yuan, with R&D intensity rising to 2.68% [9] - China has achieved significant breakthroughs in innovation, including the launch of the first domestically produced aircraft carrier and the completion of the first Chinese space station [10] Governance and Efficiency - The business environment in China has improved, with over 58 million private enterprises, an increase of over 40% since the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [11] - The ability to mobilize and act effectively has been demonstrated in disaster response, such as the rapid organization of rescue efforts following a 6.8 magnitude earthquake [12] Social Welfare and Public Services - The "14th Five-Year Plan" includes seven social welfare indicators, the highest proportion in any five-year plan, aimed at enhancing people's sense of gain, happiness, and security [13] - Employment stability has been maintained with over 12 million new urban jobs created annually, and the income growth of residents is synchronized with economic growth [15] - The healthcare system has been expanded, with a significant increase in the number of practicing physicians per thousand people, from 2.9 to 3.6 [15]

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月9日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 通胀偏弱，红利指数再度领涨 市场回顾 今日股指震荡偏弱，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.18%。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨512.38亿元。期 指均放量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文表示，关税将于2025年8月1日开始实施，"该日期没有变化，以后也不会 改变"。 2.中国6月PPI同比下降3.6%，预期降3.2%，前值降3.3%；中国6月CPI同比上涨0.1%，预期持平，前值降 0.1%。 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.16 | -0.18 | -0.38 | -0.20 | | 成交量（万手） | 8.2089 | 4.2379 | 7.0784 | 16.2388 | | 成交量环比（万手） | -1.2799 | -0.4117 | -2.2217 | -5.5394 | | 持仓量（万手 ...