宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘情绪反复，原油震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the full - scale tapping in Southeast Asian and domestic natural rubber producing areas, the consultation on zero - tariff for natural rubber imports between China and Thailand, and the decline in domestic downstream tire production [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend as the temporary cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel has cooled down the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, leading to a retracement of the premium on energy - chemical commodities [4]. - The prices of domestic and international crude oil futures are expected to remain weak and volatile under the pressure of bearish sentiment, also because of the cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the retracement of the premium on energy - chemical commodities [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 617,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons or 1.70%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 3.34% to 81,200 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 2.51% to 536,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.43 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.52 percentage points [8]. - As of June 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.19 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.56 percentage points [8]. - In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the automobile circulation industry [8]. - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% [9]. - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58%, and a significant increase of 7.23% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9979 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,400 tons, and a significant increase of 293,600 tons compared with 1.7043 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.88%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.19%. The acetic acid operating rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.39%. The MTBE operating rate was 48.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.30 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.67% [10]. - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 317 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 239 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 596 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 449,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 64,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons, and a significant decrease of 72,600 tons compared with the same period last year. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 309,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27,100 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 140,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,400 tons. As of the week of June 19, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 367,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,300 tons, and a decrease of 59,900 tons compared with 427,300 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 439, a week - on - week decrease of 3 and a decrease of 49 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.431 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 2.31 million barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 11.473 million barrels and a significant decrease of 36.61 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.688 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 995,000 barrels. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 402 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 93.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.30 percentage points [13]. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a stable and volatile trend, with an increase in market bullish power. As of June 17, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 191,941 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 23,984 contracts and a significant increase of 13,730 contracts or 7.70% compared with the May average of 178,211 contracts. As of June 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 216,664 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 34,224 contracts and a significant increase of 81,129 contracts or 59.86% compared with the May average of 135,535 contracts [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 13,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 13,770 yuan/ton | +105 yuan/ton | 80 yuan/ton | - 105 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,655 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | 2,391 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | 264 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 484.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 508.6 yuan/barrel | - 10.0 yuan/barrel | - 23.9 yuan/barrel | +10.1 yuan/barrel | [16] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: There are charts related to rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][19][21]. - Methanol: There are charts related to methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][34]. - Crude Oil: There are charts related to crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47].

| | | | 甲醇日评20250625:以伊同意停火,甲醇回调 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/6/24 | 2025/6/23 | 变化值 (绝对目) | 变化值 (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2407.00 | 2492.00 | -85.00 | -3.41% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2321.00 | 2406.00 | -85.00 | -3.53% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2379.00 | 2504.00 | -125.00 | -4.99% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2635.00 | 2740.00 | -105.00 | -3.83% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2310.00 | 2335.00 | -25.00 | -1.07% | | 期现价格 | | 厂东 | 元/吨 | 2465.00 | 2590.00 | -125.00 | -4.83% ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 化工品价格大幅回落后，成交量和持仓量均有下滑，市场在等待进一 步的方向抉择。在原油拉升时，化工品涨幅低于原油，原油回落时，化工 的跌幅亦小于原油，这也是化工估值回归的一种方式。原油的顶部可能已 经出现，化工也是如此，随着时间慢慢进入7月，化工的本身的基本面将 逐步主导市场，高基差品种将有补贴水的动力。 原油：地缘风险加剧，油价波动放大 LPG：地缘风险仍存，成本端支撑PG盘面 沥青：地缘降温，沥青地缘溢价回落 高硫燃油：等待地缘降温，燃油期价震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油震荡 甲醇：伊以缓和，甲醇回落 尿素：海外供应缓解，国内供强需弱格局难改，尿素短期或弱势震荡 乙二醇：价格回落后买气尚可，EG未来到港量较少 PX：伊以停火，PX跟随原油下跌 PTA：伊以停火原油大跌，PTA跟随下跌 短纤：原料跌幅较大，短纤加工费被动扩张 瓶片：加工费持续低位，瓶片后期将有减产 PP：原料端大幅回落，PP跟随下行 塑料：地缘溢价衰减，塑料大幅回落 苯乙烯：地缘阶段性降温，苯乙烯下跌 PVC：出口询单好转，PVC震荡运行 烧碱：低估值弱供需，烧碱偏弱运行 展望：跌去地缘溢价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical premium has significantly declined, and the crude oil and fuel oil markets may re - enter the fundamental - driven stage if there are no new variables. The energy sector has fallen sharply due to the easing of the Middle East situation [1]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has support despite weak spot demand, as power - generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is expected to increase in summer, and China's import and refinery demand may rise [1]. - The short - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is limited, and downstream demand is good, but there is a lack of continuous upward momentum as domestic refinery production is expected to recover [2]. - The strategy for both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is to be oscillating and slightly bullish, with attention on the development of the Iran - Israel conflict situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Price Movements**: The night - session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 6.05% at 3,012 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3.5% at 3,691 yuan/ton [1]. - **Geopolitical Impact**: After Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire, the crude oil premium caused by the geopolitical conflict has rapidly declined, and the energy sector has fallen significantly [1]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The monthly spread structure has weakened, indicating sufficient spot supply. However, with the approaching summer, power - generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is increasing. Egypt may import more LNG and high - sulfur fuel oil, and Saudi Arabia's imports are rising. In June, China's high - sulfur fuel oil arrivals may increase, and the consumption tax deduction ratio may be adjusted, which could boost refinery demand [1]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, with low domestic production in May. Singapore's May bunker sales increased significantly, supporting the market. But domestic refinery production is expected to recover after the maintenance season, and the market lacks continuous upward drivers [2]. Strategy - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating and slightly bullish, pay attention to the development of the Iran - Israel conflict situation [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating and slightly bullish, pay attention to the development of the Iran - Israel conflict situation [3]. - **Cross - Variety**: No strategy provided [3]. - **Cross - Period**: No strategy provided [3]. - **Spot - Futures**: No strategy provided [3]. - **Options**: No strategy provided [3].

能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 24 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017388 伊以将达成停火协议，油价大幅下挫 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格暴跌 6 月 23 日（周一），国际油价收盘大幅下跌，纽约商品期货交易 所 WTI 8 月原油即期合约收盘下跌 5.33 美元/桶，至 68.51 美元/桶， 跌幅 7.22%。洲际交易所布伦特 8 月原油即期合约收盘下跌 5.53 美元 /桶，至 71.48 美元/桶，跌幅 7.18%。24 日亚洲时段早盘 WTI、Brent 原油继续下行。 二、伊朗袭击美国驻卡塔尔军事基地 伊朗实施报复，导弹打击美国驻卡塔尔空军基地，但报复的严重 性低于市场预期。特朗普回应伊朗报复：感谢伊朗提前通知。美国总 统特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致，将实现全面停火。 三、美国商业原油库存下降 6 月 23 日，一项初步调查结果显示，上周美国原油库存可能下降， 而汽油库存料持平、馏分油库存可能增加。分析机构预计，截至 6 月 20 日当周美国原油库存减少约 20 万桶。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to the dissipation of geopolitical premiums in the energy and chemical sectors. The markets returned to the mid - term supply - demand logic, presenting opportunities for short positions. Whether to enter the market depends on individual risk tolerance [3][5]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the cease - fire, geopolitical premiums were squeezed out, and the market returned to the mid - term oversupply supply - demand logic [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term oscillatory structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. There was a sharp decline and a short - term break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: There was an opportunity to enter short positions when the price broke through in the early morning with Iran's symbolic attack. The stop - loss was set at the 572 level [5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The operating rate of styrene increased rapidly to 79%, with ample supply, weak downstream demand, and a possible shift to inventory accumulation. It was still easily affected by large fluctuations in crude oil prices [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: There were opportunities to enter short positions when the price broke through last night or when the cease - fire was announced this morning [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: In May, the export volume of Thai mixed rubber increased significantly year - on - year, and the supply increase expectation was gradually realized. Tire operating rates declined, inventories were high, and downstream demand expectations remained pessimistic [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. There was an increase in trading volume and a decline today, returning to the downward structure. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [11]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamental situation was one of high supply, weak demand, and large inventory pressure. Raw material butadiene would still be under pressure, and demand was extremely weak. It was easily affected by large fluctuations in crude oil prices [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [15]. (5) PX - **Logic**: Supported by downstream demand, PX continued to reduce inventory, with a short - term strong fundamental situation. It was more affected by crude oil price fluctuations recently [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [19]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Previously shut - down PTA units were gradually restarting, polyester demand was weak, and the fundamental situation had weakened. It was more easily affected by crude oil price fluctuations in the short term [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The operating rate of PP units increased, supply was under pressure, and terminal demand was weak. The supply expectations of raw materials methanol and propane were affected by the Israel - Iran conflict [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Iranian methanol units stopped operating, increasing supply - side disturbances. Attention was needed on whether this would have a significant impact on future imports [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Maintenance volume gradually decreased, PVC supply increased, and terminal demand was insufficient. The impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on PVC was relatively weak [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure may have ended. It broke through key support today, and the short - term trend may have reversed. - **Strategy**: Wait for a rebound and then enter short positions according to technical signals rather than directly entering the market [28]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply - side maintenance units would gradually resume operation, polyester operating rates declined, and the short - term fundamental situation weakened. It was easily affected by the geopolitical situation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There was pressure from large - scale unit production in the mid - term, with a large expected increase in supply. It was easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, the hourly - level upward structure was under test. There was a significant decline today, testing short - term support, but it had not broken through technically. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [34].

策略报告 | 投资策略 海外与大类周报 证券研究报告 中东地缘冲突如何定价？ 伊以冲突触发中东权力格局重构，全球资产反应呈现历史性钝化 以色列 2025 年 6 月 13 日对伊朗核设施实施"斩首式打击"，引发伊朗直接军 事报复。尽管事件导致原油日内涨幅 7.02%（布伦特收盘 74.23 美元/桶）、黄 金冲高 3%（6 月 13 日 COMEX 黄金 3431.2 美元/盎司），但全球权益市场波 动率及美元指数（单日仅涨 0.27%）均未有大幅波动。相较于 1990 年海湾战 争期间原油波动极差 61.5%、标普 500 回撤 20%，本次资产波动强度显著减弱， 反映金融体系对区域性冲突的适应性进化——定价锚点转向供需基本面（原 油）与实际利率（黄金），边际影响系统性衰减。 原油：地缘溢价衰减与供需新平衡 地缘冲击对油价的边际驱动持续弱化，供给侧调控与季节性需求的博弈成为 新主导。尽管霍尔木兹海峡中断风险推升布伦特原油盘中涨幅超 10%，但价 格较俄乌冲突峰值（127.98 美元/桶）低 42%，印证地缘溢价衰减。历史趋势 明确：1990 年海湾战争波动极差 61.5 个百分点，2023 年巴以冲突收窄至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran by Trump has significantly reduced safe-haven demand for gold, leading to a decline in gold prices [3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold opened at $3368 per ounce and fell to a low of $3333.16, with a daily decline of 0.42% [1][2]. - The market sentiment shifted towards risk assets as geopolitical tensions eased, resulting in a rapid decline in gold prices [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data showed weakness, with May retail sales down 0.9% and industrial output down 0.2%, indicating a slowdown in consumer and manufacturing momentum [7]. - Despite the weak data reinforcing gold's safe-haven appeal, the focus shifted to geopolitical easing, diminishing the inflation support for gold prices [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold's daily closing price fell below the critical support level of $3350, establishing a bearish trend [7]. - The hourly chart indicates a bearish outlook, with resistance at $3370 and potential targets for further declines at $3340 and $3320-3300 [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest gold will remain in a trading range of $3337 to $3362, influenced by geopolitical developments and technical levels [12]. - A recovery above $3350 or renewed geopolitical tensions could lead to a rebound in gold prices, while sustained trading below $3337 may trigger further declines [12].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 24 日 LPG：地缘溢价回落，盘面下跌风险扩大 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2508 | 4,512 | -0.62% | 4,445 | -1.48% | | 期货 | PG2509 | 4,432 | -0.47% | 4,366 | -1.49% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2508 | 103,560 | 19728 | 76,696 | 3072 | | | PG2509 | 27,802 | 7099 | 25,821 | 1329 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价差 | 广州国产气对08合约价差 | 238 | | 160 | | | | 广州进口气对08合约价差 | 288 | | 220 | | | | | 本周 | | 上周 | | | 产业链重要 | PDH开工率 | 66.2% | | ...