Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated slowdown in various macroeconomic indicators for October, influenced by factors such as the elevated base from 2024 and increased external uncertainties. Economists maintain a stable outlook for China's economy, projecting a 5% growth target for the year, with a focus on domestic demand recovery [2][12]. Industrial Growth - The average forecast for October's industrial added value year-on-year growth is 5.7%, down from 6.5% in the previous month. The manufacturing PMI has dropped to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [4][6]. - Despite the expected slowdown, some sectors like steel and chemicals show resilience, with steel production rates increasing significantly [5][6]. Consumer Spending - The predicted year-on-year growth for October's retail sales is 2.7%, a decrease from 3% in the previous month. The non-manufacturing business activity index has risen to 50.1%, indicating expansion, driven by holiday consumption [8][9]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to boost consumption in specific categories, contributing to a high base effect for October [8]. Automotive Industry - In October, China's automotive production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. New energy vehicles also saw significant growth [9]. Fixed Asset Investment - The forecast for September's fixed asset investment growth is -0.8%, indicating a further decline. However, infrastructure investment may see a narrowing of its decline due to new policy measures [10][11]. - The real estate sector continues to struggle, with significant declines in property transactions and land sales [10][11]. Economic Policy and Outlook - The government is intensifying growth stabilization policies, with significant financial tools deployed to support key investment projects. Local governments are also issuing consumption vouchers to stimulate demand [14][15]. - The overall economic growth target of around 5% for the year is deemed achievable, supported by improved trade conditions and a focus on domestic demand [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have seen rapid rotation, with the technology - growth sector remaining the market's main theme. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is expected to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. - Given that the Fed's current easing cycle is in its early stage, it is advisable to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver are provided [9]. - The short - term trend of copper prices is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, while aluminum prices may rise further. Zinc prices may be strong in the short - term but have limited upside in the excess cycle. Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and nickel prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term [13][15][17][20][22]. - The short - term trend of tin prices is expected to be strong and volatile. The price of lithium carbonate may see high - level selling pressure. Alumina is recommended to be observed in the short - term. Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [24][27][29][32][34]. - Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short - term but may see a demand inflection point in the future. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term. Glass prices are expected to remain weak, and soda ash prices may continue to fluctuate [38][40][42][44]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than to short. Industrial silicon prices are expected to consolidate, and polysilicon prices may see a marginal improvement in the supply - demand pattern [48][51][53]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and partial hedging positions. Oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Methanol, urea, and other chemical products are generally recommended to be observed [59][62][63][64]. - For agricultural products, the general strategy for hogs is to go short on rebounds, eggs are expected to be strongly sorted in the short - term, and soybean meal is recommended to be shorted on rebounds in the medium - term. The trend of oils and fats depends on the export and production of palm oil, and sugar is recommended to be shorted after the rebound weakens. Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [83][85][87][90][92][96]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank aims to maintain the stability of the financial market, and Mexico has postponed the plan to impose high tariffs on Chinese imports. SoftBank has sold all its Nvidia shares worth $5.83 billion [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly, and the technology - growth sector is the main theme. The medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The main contracts of treasury bonds showed different changes. The 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, and the US Senate has passed a bill to avoid a government shutdown. The central bank conducted a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The CPI in October exceeded expectations, and the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected. The supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve in the fourth quarter, and the market is expected to remain volatile [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver showed different trends. The US non - farm payroll data could not be released normally, and the US government shutdown problem is likely to be resolved, which will improve market liquidity [8]. - **Strategy View**: The market prices a 67.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut in December. It is advisable to go long on silver on dips, and the reference operating ranges for gold and silver contracts are provided [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Domestic equity markets declined, and copper prices adjusted. LME and domestic warehouse inventories decreased, and the import loss of domestic copper was about 700 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy View**: The expected reopening of the US government and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. The supply of refined copper is expected to tighten marginally, and copper prices may be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices fluctuated at a high level. Domestic and foreign inventories decreased, and the spot discount of electrolytic aluminum in East China narrowed [14]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas supply concerns and expected improvement in domestic exports may push aluminum prices higher. Attention should be paid to changes in domestic inventories [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data are provided, and the import loss of zinc ingots was - 4957.57 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to tighten marginally. Zinc prices may be strong in the short - term but have limited upside in the excess cycle [17]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell slightly. Domestic and foreign inventories decreased, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly [18][19]. - **Strategy View**: Lead concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply of lead is expected to be tight in the near - term. Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [20]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to decline [21]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, and nickel prices are dragged down. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider going long if the price drops sufficiently [22]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose slightly. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand from emerging fields provides support [23]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in tight balance, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile. It is advisable to go long on dips [24]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the futures price decreased slightly [26]. - **Strategy View**: The demand is expected to reach a new high this month, but attention should be paid to high - level selling pressure [27]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices decreased slightly. The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the domestic inventory is expected to increase [28]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of alumina is expected to be in excess, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [29]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices decreased. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The inventory is being released, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down [30][31]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel market is expected to remain weak in the short - term due to supply - demand imbalance [32]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices decreased. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory increased slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [34]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased. The registered warehouse receipts of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [36]. - **Strategy View**: Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short - term, but demand may improve in the future [38]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices decreased slightly. The overseas shipment volume decreased, and the demand from steel mills weakened. The port inventory increased [39]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of iron ore is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to weaken. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [40]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass decreased, and the inventory decreased. The price of soda ash decreased, and the inventory increased [41][43]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market lacks fundamental support and is expected to remain weak. The soda ash market is expected to be volatile due to supply - demand factors [42][44]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased. The market is affected by macro and fundamental factors [45]. - **Strategy View**: The price trend is affected by macro events. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than to short [47][48]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon decreased. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to decrease, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease in the future [50][52]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to consolidate, and polysilicon prices may see a marginal improvement in the supply - demand pattern [51][53]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The opening rates of tire enterprises showed different trends, and the inventory increased [55][57]. - **Strategy View**: A neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and partial hedging positions [59]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude oil and related refined products decreased. The inventory of refined products in Fujeirah Port increased [60]. - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to observe in the short - term [62]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol decreased. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, leading to an increase in inventory [63]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern of methanol is weak, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [63]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea decreased slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of urea is in a relatively loose pattern, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [64]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene decreased. The supply and demand showed different trends [65]. - **Strategy View**: The price of styrene may stop falling temporarily due to inventory reduction, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair [67]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC decreased. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of PVC is imbalanced, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [69]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol decreased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short on rallies [71]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA decreased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable, and the inventory is expected to increase [72]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the processing fee is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by PXN [73]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene decreased. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of p - xylene is expected to be in excess, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium - term [75]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE decreased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [76]. - **Strategy View**: The price of PE is expected to remain low and volatile due to factors such as inventory and demand [78]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP decreased. The supply is expected to be under pressure, and the demand is expected to rebound seasonally [79]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of PP is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [80]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices were weak. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was not improved [82]. - **Strategy View**: The future supply of hogs is expected to be in excess, and it is recommended to short on rallies. In the short - term, there may be a rebound [83]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with a slight decline. The supply was stable, and the demand was general [84]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be strongly sorted in the short - term. It is recommended to observe or trade short - term [85]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The price of CBOT soybeans was stable. The domestic soybean inventory was at a high level, and the demand for soybean meal was weak [86]. - **Strategy View**: The import cost of soybeans fluctuates, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies [87]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production showed different trends. The US Department of Agriculture will release a report [88]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of palm oil is expected to be large, and the price trend depends on production and export. It is recommended to view the market with a volatile perspective [90]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar fluctuated. India has allowed sugar exports, and the opening of sugar mills in China has different situations [91]. - **Strategy View**: The import control of syrup and premix has driven up the price of sugar, but the external market is weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [92]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton fluctuated. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [93]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton market lacks strong driving factors, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [96].

在宏观政策层面，明明认为2026年中国财政政策将更加积极，赤字率或将继续维持在4%左右，专项债 额度有望提升并向项目建设倾斜；货币政策方面，降准降息空间依然存在，结构性货币工具将持续发 力，央行继续进行国债买卖。宏观政策层面对经济的支持力度仍将延续。 明明认为，中美经济周期或均呈先低后高走势，全球经济格局有望迎来再平衡阶段。对于美国而言，就 业市场虽显韧性，但GDP增长结构性问题突出，财政赤字高企，长期国债利率下行受限，而短端利率下 行确定性较强，通胀与经济走弱交织使美联储降息节奏趋于谨慎。 从大类资产配置角度，明明判断，全球宏观环境整体偏宽松，债市方面，国债利率或将先下后上，需要 关注两阶段主导因素的变化；外汇方面，人民币汇率有望温和升值；商品方面，黄金作为配置资产的长 期价值仍具吸引力。 责编:李文玉 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 【大河财立方消息】11月11日，中信证券2026年资本市场年会在深圳开幕，多名分析师发表2026年宏观 与政策展望与投资策略。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，中国经济有望延续波动中复苏的态势。明明表示，预计2025年中国经 济将实现5.0%左右的增长目标，2026年将保持在4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum: Macro sentiment provides strong support, with a persistent pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets and high prices. However, downstream demand weakens during the off - season, increasing the pressure of inventory accumulation. Later, attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical crises, the implementation of macro policies, supply expansion, and consumption release [14]. - Zinc: In the short term, prices follow the overall non - ferrous metals trend and remain at a high level. But in the long - term, supply expansion exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mining end to the smelting end, and be vigilant about macro - risk events and LME inventory trends [16]. - Tin: Supply is tight, and tin prices are consolidating strongly. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the trade policies of various countries [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01. Color Weekly Market Review - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 85,940 yuan, down 1070 yuan (- 1.23%) from October 31. The spot price was 85,995 yuan, down 1570 yuan (- 1.79%) [9]. - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 21,625 yuan, up 325 yuan (1.53%) from October 31. The spot price was 21,580 yuan, up 280 yuan (1.31%) [9]. - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 22,720 yuan, up 365 yuan (1.63%) from October 31. The spot price was 22,768 yuan, up 248 yuan (1.10%) [9]. - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 283,510 yuan, down 400 yuan (- 0.14%) from October 31. The spot price was 283,750 yuan, down 500 yuan (- 0.18%) [9]. - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 119,440 yuan, down 1150 yuan (- 0.95%) from October 31. The spot price was 121,290 yuan, down 980 yuan (- 0.80%) [9]. 02. This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly. Macroeconomically, the US Treasury bond yield declined slightly with the government shutdown, and the non - farm payroll report was not released. Fundamentally, in October, China's bauxite production decreased by 2.25% month - on - month and 6.96% year - on - year. Although some mines can resume production, they need government approval. Some mines increase the proportion of imported high - temperature ore. The domestic downstream processing enterprise's starting rate decreased, and the inventory increased slightly [13]. Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices remained at a high level. The average weekly TC of domestic SMM Zn50 decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 4.17 dollars/dry ton. The galvanizing starting rate decreased by 2.4 percentage points. Downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing due to high prices, and the inventory increased slightly [16]. Tin - Logic: In October, domestic tin ingot production increased to 16,090 tons. In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% month - on - month. Myanmar's resumption of production was slow, and Indonesia's export speed slowed down. Domestic production and starting rates increased, but processing fees remained low. Semiconductor consumption was good, while traditional sectors cooled down [17]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 660 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 590 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average price index of imported bauxite was 72.8 dollars/ton, down 0.35 dollars week - on - week [22]. - Arrival and departure volume: The arrival volume at ports was 3.1232 million tons, down 649,600 tons week - on - week; the departure volume was 3.991 million tons, down 742,400 tons week - on - week [23]. - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan remained unchanged at 2865 yuan/ton week - on - week; the full cost was 2905 yuan/ton, down 15.4 yuan week - on - week; the profit in Shanxi was - 94.41 yuan/ton, up 25.73 yuan week - on - week [28]. - Electrolytic aluminum: - Total cost: 16,113.5 yuan/ton, up 70.44 yuan week - on - week [33]. - Regional spread: The spread between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan week - on - week [33]. - Downstream processing: The starting rates of aluminum cables, foils, strips, profiles, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys showed different degrees of change, with some decreasing and some increasing or remaining unchanged [36][37]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 46,500 tons, down 2800 tons week - on - week; the total bonded - area inventory was 65,500 tons, down 2800 tons week - on - week; the social inventory was 627,000 tons, unchanged week - on - week; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 112,300 tons, down 18,400 tons week - on - week; the SHFE inventory was 113,335 tons, down 239 tons week - on - week; the LME inventory was 549,225 tons, down 8825 tons week - on - week [42][43]. - Spot: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum for the current month was - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan week - on - week; for the main contract, it was - 85 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan week - on - week; for the third - consecutive contract, it was - 90 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan week - on - week [48]. - Inter - monthly spread of Shanghai Aluminum: The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan week - on - week; between the current month and the third - consecutive contract, it was - 80 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan week - on - week [49]. Zinc - Zinc concentrate: - Price and processing fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 18,206 yuan/metal ton, up 688 yuan week - on - week; the domestic processing fee was 2850 yuan/metal ton, down 400 yuan week - on - week; the imported processing fee was 98.37 dollars/dry ton, down 4.17 dollars week - on - week [58]. - Production profit, import profit and loss, and inventory: The enterprise production profit was 5206 yuan/metal ton, up 688 yuan week - on - week; the import profit and loss was - 2305.84 yuan/ton, down 47.67 yuan week - on - week; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 160,000 physical tons, up 30,000 tons week - on - week [61]. - Refined zinc inventory: The SMM seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots was 159,600 tons, down 2100 tons week - on - week; the bonded - area inventory was 3800 tons, down 400 tons week - on - week; the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 100,208 tons, down 3208 tons week - on - week; the LME zinc inventory was 34,900 tons, down 400 tons week - on - week [64]. - Galvanizing: The production was 318,270 tons, down 24,350 tons week - on - week; the starting rate was 55.13%, down 2.41 percentage points week - on - week; the raw material inventory was 13,080 tons, up 420 tons week - on - week; the finished - product inventory was 359,000 tons, down 8000 tons week - on - week [68]. - Zinc basis: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot for the current month was - 20 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan week - on - week; for the main contract, it was - 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan week - on - week; for the third - consecutive contract, it was - 120 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan week - on - week [72]. - Inter - monthly spread of Shanghai Zinc: The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 60 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan week - on - week; between the current month and the third - consecutive contract, it was - 110 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan week - on - week [73]. Tin - Refined tin: - Production and starting rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 3350 tons, up 20 tons week - on - week; the combined starting rate was 69.13%, up 0.41 percentage points week - on - week [83]. - Tin ingot inventory: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 5992 tons, up 73 tons week - on - week; the social inventory in Chinese regions was 7033 tons, up 349 tons week - on - week [86]. - Tin concentrate processing fee: The processing fees in Yunnan (40%), Guangxi (60%), Hunan (60%), and Jiangxi (60%) remained unchanged week - on - week [89]. - Tin ore import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level was 11,635.53 yuan/ton, down 2907.46 yuan week - on - week [90]. - Spot average price: The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi decreased by 700 yuan/ton week - on - week [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Viewpoint**: The black industry is facing a complex situation with different trends in various sub - sectors.成材 is expected to run at a low level, coal - coke prices need to pay attention to the previous high pressure, and ferroalloys are predicted to have a narrow - range shock and consolidation trend [12][13][14][15]. - **Specific Sub - sector Views** - **成材**：回归基本面逻辑，低位运行，后期需关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [12][13]. - **Coal - Coke**：Short - term domestic coal mine production has not recovered, supporting the market's confidence in maintaining prices, but demand is in a downward trend. Pay attention to the steel - mill profit situation and production reduction actions [14]. - **Ferroalloys**：Recently, the macro - driving force has weakened. The market trading logic is dominated by the weak reality. The supply - demand contradiction in the alloy market is accumulating, and prices are under pressure but supported by costs, with a narrow - range shock expected [15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 01 周度行情回顾 - **Futures and Spot Prices** - **螺纹钢**：The futures price of RB2601 dropped from 3106 to 3034, a decrease of 2.32%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased from 3230 to 3190, a decrease of 1.24% [8]. - **热轧卷板**：The futures price of HC2601 dropped from 3308 to 3245, a decrease of 1.90%, and the spot price of Q235B:5.75*1500*C in Shanghai decreased from 3330 to 3260, a decrease of 2.10% [8]. - **铁矿石**：The futures price of 12601 dropped from 800 to 760.5, a decrease of 4.94%, and the spot price of Rizhao Port PB powder decreased from 803 to 773, a decrease of 3.74% [8]. - **焦炭**：The futures price of J2601 dropped from 1777 to 1756.5, a decrease of 1.15%, and the spot price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price increased from 1560 to 1570, an increase of 0.64% [8]. - **焦煤**：The futures price of JM2601 dropped from 1286 to 1270, a decrease of 1.24%, and the spot price of Jiexiu medium - sulfur main coking coal ex - factory price increased from 1350 to 1420, an increase of 5.19% [8]. - **锰硅**：The futures price of SM2601 dropped from 5772 to 5760, a decrease of 0.21%, and the spot price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5660 to 5620, a decrease of 0.71% [8]. - **硅铁**：The futures price of SF2601 increased from 5500 to 5526, an increase of 0.47%, and the spot price of 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5250 to 5220, a decrease of 0.57% [8]. - **废钢**：The Mysteel scrap steel price index decreased from 2442.24 to 2438.17, a decrease of 0.17% [8]. 3.2 02 本周黑色行情预判 - **成材** - **Logic**：Last week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 5.19% to 39.83%, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.38% to 83.13%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.8% to 87.81%, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.14 tons to 234.22 tons. The impact of steel - mill maintenance on construction steel production increased. After the macro - level positive factors faded, steel prices returned to the fundamental logic, with weak downstream demand and high inventory pressuring prices [13]. - **Viewpoint**：Run at a low level [13]. - **Later Concerns**：Macro - policies and downstream demand [13]. - **Coal - Coke** - **Logic**：Last week, the coal - coke futures prices fluctuated with a slightly lower center of gravity. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, and the third round of coke price increases was implemented, with some areas starting the fourth round. Shanxi coal mines further reduced production, and the demand was also declining as steel - mill profits continued to shrink [14]. - **Viewpoint**：Pay attention to the previous high pressure of coal - coke prices [14]. - **Later Concerns**：The resumption process of coal - coke - steel production and changes in imported coal clearance [14]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Logic**：The macro - situation has an impact, with the US government shutdown and China's policy window period. The demand in the off - season is weakening. On the supply side, the production and operating rates of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises have different trends; on the demand side, the demand from steel mills is decreasing; on the inventory side, the inventory of both is increasing; on the cost side, there is some support [15]. - **Viewpoint**：Prices are expected to have a narrow - range shock and consolidation trend [15]. - **Later Concerns**：Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel - mill profits and production, and domestic production - restriction situations [15]. 3.3 03 品种数据 3.3.1 成材 - **螺纹钢** - **Production and Apparent Demand**：Last week, the production was 208.54 tons, a decrease of 4.05 tons compared to the previous week; the apparent demand was 218.52 tons, a decrease of 13.67 tons compared to the previous week [18]. - **Long - and Short - Process Production**：The long - process production was 179.29 tons, a decrease of 3.79 tons compared to the previous week; the short - process production was 29.25 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons compared to the previous week [24]. - **Inventory**：The social inventory was 425.70 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons compared to the previous week; the steel - mill inventory was 166.84 tons, a decrease of 4.87 tons compared to the previous week; the total inventory was 592.54 tons, a decrease of 9.98 tons compared to the previous week [28]. - **Basis**：In Shanghai, the basis for January was 156 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 32 yuan compared to the previous week; in Beijing, the basis for January was 236 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 72 yuan compared to the previous week [44][47]. - **热轧** - **Production and Apparent Demand**：Last week, the production was 318.16 tons, a decrease of 5.40 tons compared to the previous week; the apparent demand was 314.30 tons, a decrease of 17.59 tons compared to the previous week [35]. - **Inventory**：The social inventory was 333.02 tons, an increase of 4.09 tons compared to the previous week; the steel - mill inventory was 77.43 tons, a decrease of 0.23 tons compared to the previous week; the total inventory was 410.45 tons, an increase of 3.86 tons compared to the previous week [40]. - **Basis**：In Shanghai, the basis for January was 15 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 7 yuan compared to the previous week [51]. 3.3.2 煤焦 - **Inventory** - **Coke**：The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 887.01 tons last week, a decrease of 13.09 tons compared to the previous week [60]. - **Coking Coal**：The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2622.17 tons last week, an increase of 34.32 tons compared to the previous week [68]. - **Production and Related Data** - **Coke**：The average profit per ton of independent coke enterprises was - 22 yuan last week, an increase of 10 yuan compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 72.3%, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the previous week; the daily average coke production was 63.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0 ton compared to the previous week [76]. - **Coking Coal**：The daily average clean - coal production of 523 coking coal mines was 73.8 tons last week, a decrease of 2.0 tons compared to the previous week; the daily average pig - iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons compared to the previous week [77]. - **Price Ratios and Basis** - **Price Ratios**：The ratio of coke January to coking coal January was 1.38 last Friday, unchanged compared to the previous week [82]. - **Basis**：For the basis of coke in Rizhao Port, the basis for January was - 68 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 31 yuan compared to the previous week [86]. 3.3.3 铁合金 - **Spot Prices** - **Manganese Ore**：The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore (Mn36%, South African origin) in Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/dry - ton degree last Friday, unchanged compared to the previous week [99]. - **Silicon - Manganese**：The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5620 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 40 yuan compared to the previous week [99]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5220 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 30 yuan compared to the previous week [99]. - **Inventory** - **Manganese Ore**：The total port inventory in the week of October 31 was 431.4 tons, a decrease of 11.3 tons compared to the previous week [102]. - **Silicon - Manganese**：The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises on November 7 was 319500 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the previous week [116]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises on November 7 was 78690 tons, an increase of 6700 tons compared to the previous week [116]. - **Production** - **Silicon - Manganese**：The weekly production of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises last week was 201880 tons, a decrease of 5845 tons compared to the previous week [104]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The weekly production of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises last week was 11.41 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons compared to the previous week [107]. - **Demand** - **Silicon - Manganese**：The demand from five major steel types last week was 121113 tons, a decrease of 3379 tons compared to the previous week [112]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The demand from five major steel types last week was 19813.7 tons, a decrease of 462 tons compared to the previous week [112]. - **Import and Production** - **Manganese Ore**：The import volume in September was 308.49 tons, a decrease of 11.51% compared to the previous month [122]. - **Silicon - Manganese**：The production in October was 91.57 tons, an increase of 1.92% compared to the previous month [122]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The production in October was 50.53 tons, an increase of 3.5% compared to the previous month [122]. - **Steel - Mill Purchase Prices** - **Silicon - Manganese**：Hebei Iron and Steel's purchase price for silicon - manganese 6517 in October was 5820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to the previous month [125]. - **Silicon - Iron**：Hebei Iron and Steel's purchase price for silicon - iron FeSi75 - B in October was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan compared to the previous month [125].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month [2][3] - Service prices rose by 0.2%, driven by increased travel demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with hotel accommodation, flight tickets, and tourism prices rising by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, indicating a steady recovery in domestic consumption, particularly in service consumption [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, the first rise of the year, influenced by improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [4][5] - Year-on-year, PPI decreased by 2.1%, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a trend of price stabilization in key industries [5][6] - Prices in the coal mining and washing industry, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, and integrated circuit manufacturing have shown upward trends, while international commodity prices have created a mixed impact on domestic prices [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the improvement in price data reflects a comprehensive enhancement in the macroeconomic environment and industry sentiment, with a balanced supply-demand relationship [6][7] - The overall price level is expected to rise moderately in the next 3 to 6 months, supported by continued macroeconomic policies and a recovery in market confidence [7] - The construction of a modern industrial system and the expansion of market demand are anticipated to drive price increases in related industries, despite ongoing pressures from the real estate market on certain commodity prices [7]

Group 1 - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer demand, particularly in the service sector [1][2][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 and reflecting a steady recovery in domestic consumption [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the first rise this year, driven by improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [4][5] Group 2 - The increase in CPI was supported by higher service prices, particularly in accommodation, air travel, and tourism, which rose by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively during the holiday season [2] - Food prices increased by 0.3%, with specific items like fresh vegetables and meat seeing price rises between 0.5% and 4.3% [2] - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1%, with significant improvements in sectors like coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing [5][6] Group 3 - Experts suggest that the overall improvement in price data reflects a comprehensive enhancement in the macroeconomic environment and consumer sentiment [6][7] - Future projections indicate a moderate rise in overall price levels, supported by continued macroeconomic policies and expanding domestic demand [7] - The construction of a modern industrial system and the ongoing recovery in market demand are expected to contribute to price stabilization in various sectors [7]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in China remains stable during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a solid and steady advancement in high-quality development, showcasing strong resilience and vitality in multiple macro indicators [1][2] - The GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 5.2% year-on-year, laying a strong foundation for achieving the annual target [1] - New economic drivers, particularly in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, have shown robust growth, with significant increases in the production of smart products and green equipment [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - Demand-stimulating policies have effectively driven retail sales growth and facilitated large-scale equipment upgrades, creating a virtuous cycle of policy stimulation leading to increased demand, production growth, and subsequent investment [2] - The A-share market has seen a notable increase in trading volume and investor confidence since the introduction of a comprehensive set of measures on September 24 of the previous year [2] Group 3: Recommendations for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The recommendations emphasize the importance of coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, enhancing the roles of various policies to promote an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption [2][3] - The focus on smart, green, and integrated development in the real economy aims to maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing and build a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing [3] - Regional development strategies are highlighted to enhance the quality of development in key areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [3]

Group 1 - The conference highlighted the strong resilience and vitality of China's economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [1] - New economic drivers, particularly in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, have shown robust growth, with significant increases in the production of smart products and green equipment [1][2] - Demand stimulation policies have effectively promoted retail sales and large-scale equipment upgrades, creating a virtuous cycle of policy stimulus leading to increased demand, production growth, and subsequent investment [2] Group 2 - The capital market has been positively impacted, with a notable increase in A-share market trading volume and investor confidence since the introduction of a comprehensive set of measures in September of the previous year [2] - Recommendations for the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasize a focus on economic construction and high-quality development, highlighting the importance of people-centered principles and the spirit of reform and innovation [2] - In terms of macro policies, there is a call for enhanced coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, promoting an economic development model driven by domestic demand and consumption [2][3] Group 3 - The emphasis on the real economy includes a commitment to intelligent, green, and integrated development, aiming to maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing and build a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing [3] - Regional development strategies are to be leveraged to enhance the quality of development in key areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3] - The green transition is guided by carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, promoting a collaborative approach to reducing carbon emissions, pollution, and enhancing green growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted the resilience and vitality of China's economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on high-quality development and various macroeconomic indicators that support this outlook [1][2]. Macroeconomic Indicators - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target [2]. - The growth of new economic drivers, particularly in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, outpaced overall industrial growth [2]. - Significant increases in the production of smart products and green equipment were noted, alongside a marked growth in the value added by the digital product manufacturing sector [2]. Policy Impact - Demand-stimulating policies have shown effectiveness, with the "Two New" policies driving retail sales growth and facilitating large-scale equipment upgrades, creating a positive cycle of policy stimulus leading to increased demand, production growth, and subsequent investment [2]. - The external trade sector demonstrated strong resilience, achieving record high import and export volumes despite a complex external environment, with diversified markets providing robust support [2]. Capital Market Performance - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume and investor confidence since the introduction of a comprehensive set of measures on September 24 of the previous year [2]. Recommendations for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The proposed recommendations emphasize economic construction as the central theme, promoting high-quality development while adhering to the principle of prioritizing people's needs and showcasing a spirit of reform and innovation [2]. Macroeconomic Policy Suggestions - There is a call for enhanced coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, leveraging various policy tools to foster an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption [3]. - The need for proactive macroeconomic policies that are consistent and capable of counter-cyclical adjustments is emphasized [3]. Focus on Real Economy - The emphasis is on maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing while building a modern industrial system centered around advanced manufacturing [3]. - Accelerating self-reliance in technology and enhancing independent innovation capabilities are seen as crucial for seizing technological development opportunities [3]. Regional Development Strategy - The strategy aims to leverage the synergistic effects of various regional development strategies to enhance the high-quality development momentum in key areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [3]. Domestic Demand Expansion - The approach combines improving livelihoods and promoting consumption with investments in both physical and human capital, aiming to create a virtuous cycle between supply and demand [3]. Green Transition Initiatives - The focus on carbon peak and carbon neutrality aims to synergize efforts in reducing carbon emissions, pollution, and promoting green growth while ensuring ecological safety [3].