宏观面多空交织。全球主要经济体宽松预期有所升温，欧盟与印度近日达成自由贸易协定，双方将逐步 下调多项商品关税，或对未来贸易流动产生影响。美元指数连续下跌，市场关注美联储会议传递的政策 信号。 随着现货消费平淡，且价格仍处于高位，一些投资者锁定收益，获利了结，等待美联储下一步的利率动 向。 二、供需基本面 供应端：昨日印尼本土最大矿企AntamRAKB配额获批，但印尼方面拒绝透露具体配额数量。与此同 时，上期所公布的数据显示，沪镍库存继续累积，目前已连增四周，周度库存增加5.43%至50794吨， 再刷近八年新高。伦镍库存维持高位，总库存超28万吨，高库存成为当前市场最主要的潜在下行风险。 需求端：不锈钢行业作为镍的主要消费领域，需求持续疲弱，近期有钢厂主动减产，高镍价对实际需求 形成一定压制，需求没有明显增量空间。 总体上，镍价不排除继续上冲的可能，但短期缺乏强有力的支撑，实际需求增长相对迟滞，叠加库存高 企，限制向上高度。后续需关注宏观政策落地、下游需求实际复苏情况及库存变化趋势。 隔夜伦镍震荡受挫，伦敦三个月期镍盘收跌2.1%，报每吨18130美元，沪镍主力合约同步走低，收盘下 跌1.31%至144370 ...

Core Viewpoint - The metal sector on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced a significant rally on January 29, 2026, driven by multiple factors including macroeconomic policies, geopolitical dynamics, supply-demand balance, capital flows, and inter-commodity linkages. Group 1: Core Driving Factors - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a dovish stance and reinforcing expectations for rate cuts in the first half of 2026. The US dollar index fell to 96.2, a near four-year low, reducing overseas procurement costs for metals and attracting global capital into the commodity market [1]. - **Domestic Growth Policies**: Continued domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, such as the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and consumption stimulation during the Spring Festival, further boosted metal demand expectations [2]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Easing concerns over supply chain disruptions due to improved conditions in resource-rich areas, although geopolitical uncertainties remain. Silver, with its dual attributes of finance and safe-haven, became a preferred choice for capital allocation [3]. - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: A "tight balance" in supply and demand was noted, with supply constraints in tin, nickel, and lead due to environmental policies and mining difficulties, while demand surged from sectors like new energy and construction [4][5]. - **Capital Flows**: Increased risk appetite led to significant capital inflows into the commodity market, with metals showing heightened trading activity. The reversal of previously accumulated pessimism quickly drove prices up [7]. Group 2: Price Movements and Commodity Performance - **Price Increases**: Major metals saw substantial price increases, with copper rising by 6,490 yuan (+6.35%), aluminum by 765 yuan (+3.08%), and silver by 1,706 yuan (+5.99%). Gold also saw a notable increase of 87.14 yuan (+7.53%) [1]. - **Commodity Linkages**: Leading commodities like copper and aluminum initiated the rally, boosting market sentiment. Copper reached a new high of 108,000 yuan/ton, while aluminum followed suit due to dual demand from new energy and infrastructure [8]. - **Differentiated Performance**: Various metals exhibited different price responses based on their supply-demand characteristics and market attributes, with tin and nickel showing strong rebounds due to specific supply constraints and demand from new energy applications [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - **Short-term Outlook**: The market is expected to maintain strong fluctuations leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by ongoing stocking activities and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Copper may challenge the 109,000 yuan/ton mark, while aluminum is monitored around the 26,000 yuan/ton resistance level [10]. - **Long-term Perspective**: Structural demand from industries such as new energy and AI computing is anticipated to reshape the market, with copper, aluminum, and tin potentially entering a "super cycle." However, caution is advised regarding potential risks from US government shutdowns and disappointing earnings from tech giants [10].

晨报 铝锭 成文时间： 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝向上冲高，主要是美伊地缘冲突升级对铝产品贸易端形 成显著扰动，并且在贵金属市场限仓背景下，资金出现向基本金属板块分 流的趋势，而国内氧化铝厂近期减产预期升高，进一步推高整体市场看多 情绪。宏观上美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率 目标区间维持在 3.5%至 3.75%之间，符合市场普遍预期。 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同 ...

成材：关注周度基本面变化 钢价整理运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 成材 观点：低位盘整运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 重要声明： 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 1 月 29 日 逻辑：本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均铁水不含税成本和平均钢坯含税 成本继续小幅下降，钢企亏损有所减少，较上周减少 17 元/吨，但是整体 仍然处于亏损的状态。住建部数据显示，2025 年 1-12 月份，全国新开工 改造城镇老旧小区 2.71 万个、499 万户，共完成投资 13 ...

新年伊始，更加积极有为的宏观政策靠前发力。从财政金融促内需一揽子政策，到下调各类结构性货币 政策工具利率、完善结构性工具并加大支持力度，财政、货币政策工具箱频频亮出新的"大招"。 按照中央经济工作会议部署，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。这也是财政政策连续两年锚定"更 加积极"这一取向。站在"十五五"开局的新起点，更加积极的财政政策再次发力，赋能经济发展、提升 民生福祉。 更大支出盘子增强动力 日前，2026年第一批936亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更新资金下达，支持工业、能源电力、教育、医 疗、住宅老旧电梯等领域约4500个项目，预计带动总投资超过4600亿元；同时，采取直接向地方下达资 金的方式，继续支持老旧营运货车报废更新、新能源城市公交车更新、老旧农机报废更新。此前，2026 年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划也已向地方提前下达。 财政赤字、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券……这些都是实施积极财政政策的重要工具。进入实 施"更加积极"财政政策的第二年，超长期特别国债率先发力，继续支持"两重""两新"，向扩大内需注入 动能。 近期公布的我国经济2025年"成绩单"显示，国内生 ...

△ 1月18日，江苏省港口集团南京港龙潭集装箱码头（无人机照片）。 国家统计局局长康义1月19日在2025年国民经济运行情况新闻发布会上指出，2025年我国经济发展向新向优，预期目标圆满实现。 "从数据看，成绩来之不易，也充分彰显了我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大的主要特征。"国家发展改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈在 解读2025年经济社会发展各项数据说。 5%，含金量十足 对于过去一年的经济表现，康义用"稳、进、新、韧"四个字来概括。其中，"稳"的格局得到巩固、"进"的步伐更加有力、"新"的动能培育壮 大、"韧"的特性愈发凸显。 国家统计局数据显示，2025年规模以上高技术制造业增加值占规模以上工业增加值比重升到了17.1%；2025年，研发经费投入强度达2.8%，比上 年提高0.11个百分点，首次超过OECD国家平均水平；2025年，规模以上数字产品制造业增加值比上年增长9.3%，服务器、工业机器人产量高速 增长。 △1月19日，工人在贵州省贵阳市观山湖区一家汽车制造企业的车间内工作。 中国人民大学教授王孝松认为，这主要得益于中国坚持实施创新驱动发展战略，依靠发展壮大新质生产力来促进经济高质量发展；与 ...

Group 1 - The core observation is that digital assets and safe-haven assets are experiencing a collective resonance driven by macroeconomic policies, with Bitcoin surpassing the $89,000 mark [1][2][3] - The immediate catalyst for this surge is the significant decline of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which has fallen to around 95.80, marking a four-year low, influenced by President Trump's indifferent attitude towards the dollar's depreciation [1][2][3] - This macro-level policy signal has injected strong liquidity expectations into the market, leading to a 2.2% increase in Bitcoin within 24 hours, reaching a peak of $89,300, while gold prices surged 1.8% to a record of $5,215 per ounce [1][3] Group 2 - From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is showing significant bullish divergence, which historically indicates a strong reversal, with potential for a 10% subsequent return, suggesting Bitcoin may challenge the $95,000 resistance level in the short term [2][3] - The underlying logic of the market dynamics is shifting, and while there may be short-term volatility risks, the dual drivers of a weakening dollar and technical divergence are expected to enhance the asset hedging value of Bitcoin and gold, potentially initiating a new round of valuation recovery [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoint - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate weakly and remain in a low - level consolidation [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Information - **Economic Data**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 739.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The profits of major industries in the machinery industry in 2025 showed growth, with the general equipment manufacturing industry growing by 4.2%, the special equipment manufacturing industry by 5.7%, the automotive manufacturing industry by 0.6%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry by 4.9%, and the instrument manufacturing industry by 3.1% [2] - **Cost and Price**: On January 27, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,378 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton. The average profit was - 80 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 33 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan on January 27 was lowered by 20 yuan/ton to 2,930 yuan/ton [2] - **Market Analysis**: The decline of finished products yesterday was mainly dragged down by the fall of coking coal at the raw material end. The fundamentals have not changed much, with the characteristics of weak supply and demand still existing, and the market driving force is not strong. The macro - market has been relatively calm recently, providing no trend guidance for prices [2] - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions [3]

Economic Overview - Qinghai Province aims for a GDP growth of 4.1% by 2025, with per capita disposable income expected to rise by 5.1% and an urban unemployment rate of 5.4% [1] - In the previous year, the province's general public budget expenditure was 216.42 billion RMB, with a focus on implementing proactive macro policies and leveraging over 50 billion RMB in financial resources [1] Industry Performance - The agricultural and pastoral sector saw a value-added growth of 5.5%, with cattle and sheep output increasing by 5.2% and 1.9% respectively, and total grain production at 1.193 million tons [1] - The industrial sector's value-added output grew by 7.6%, with 85 new industrial enterprises established and 20 green factories created, while high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors grew by 9.5% and 10.7% respectively [1] Service Sector and Consumption - The service sector showed stability with transportation, warehousing, and postal services growing by 8.5%, and total passenger and cargo turnover increasing by 9.5% [2] - Consumer activity was boosted by a 2.03 billion RMB "trade-in" subsidy, leading to a consumption increase of 21.5 billion RMB, alongside the establishment of flagship stores for brands like McDonald's and Xiaomi [2] Investment and Infrastructure - Significant infrastructure developments include the completion of the third phase of Xining Airport, expansion of the Ge'ku Railway, and the opening of 11 national and provincial highways, contributing to a 24% increase in investment funds to 79.56 billion RMB [2] - The province is enhancing its business environment and integrating into the national market, with a 17.6% increase in total import and export value, and notable growth in lithium-ion battery and salt lake chemical product exports [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of accessing in-depth insights from top fund managers to navigate investment challenges and market volatility effectively [2][4]. Group 1: Purpose and Offerings - "百亿基金经理·闭门会议" is designed to bridge the information gap between ordinary investors and billion-dollar fund managers, providing unique investment perspectives [4][9]. - The service includes weekly discussions with fund managers focusing on market highlights, investment strategies, and risk management [5][9]. Group 2: Content Highlights - The content covers various aspects such as the analysis of sudden market events, upcoming investment focuses for the next 1-2 months, and high-risk sectors to avoid [5][9]. - It also tracks institutional fund movements and provides insights into macroeconomic policy interpretations, aiding in market volatility management [5][9]. Group 3: Learning and Application - The program aims to help investors understand the rationale behind investment decisions, moving beyond surface-level information [9][10]. - It offers methods to identify potential investment opportunities early by analyzing fund manager insights and market trends [12][10]. - The initiative also focuses on teaching investors how to assess company growth through key financial data and adjust their portfolios according to macroeconomic conditions [12][10].