Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a weekly hot - spot preview for the week of December 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Weekly Key Focus - On December 31 at 03:00, the Fed will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting [2][10] - On December 31 at 09:30, China's official December manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI and composite PMI will be announced [2][11] - On December 31 at 09:45, Markit will release China's December SPGI manufacturing PMI [2][12] - On December 31 at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending December 22 [2][13] - US President Trump may appoint a new Fed Chairman in the first week of January 2026 [2][15] Group 3: Daily Hot - spot Details December 29 - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will announce the US seasonally - adjusted pending home sales index for November at 23:00, with an expected monthly rate of 1% (previous 1.9%) [3] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending December 19 at 00:00, expecting a decline of 2.432 million barrels (previous decline of 1.274 million barrels). A larger decline will help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [4] December 30 - The US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) will announce the US FHFA house price index for October at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0.1% (previous 0) [5] - Standard & Poor's will announce the US S&P/CS20 - city house price index for October at 22:00. The expected unadjusted annual rate is 1.1% (previous 1.4%), and the expected seasonally - adjusted monthly rate is 0.1% (previous 0.1%) [8] - The Chicago branch of the Institute for Supply Management will announce the US December Chicago PMI at 22:45, with an expected value of 39.5 (previous 36.3). A rise will help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures prices rise but suppress gold and silver futures prices [9] December 31 - The Fed will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting at 03:00, and its impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [10] - China's official December manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.2 (previous 49.2), and non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7 (previous 49.5) [11] - Markit will release China's December SPGI manufacturing PMI at 09:45, with an expected value of 49.8 (previous 49.9). A slight decrease will slightly suppress industrial product futures and stock index futures but slightly help treasury bond futures [12] - The US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending December 22 at 21:30, with an expected value of 220,000 (previous 214,000). A slight increase will slightly help non - precious industrial product futures prices rise but help gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures prices rise [13] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending December 26 at 23:30. A decline will help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [14] January 1 - Trump may appoint a new Fed Chairman. If the appointee is "obedient" like Hassett, it will increase concerns about the Fed's monetary policy independence, with an expected 2 - time rate cut in 2026, helping precious metals and non - ferrous metals futures rise [15][16] January 2 - S&P Global will announce the final value of the US December SPGI manufacturing PMI at 22:45, with an expected value of 51.8 (same as the initial value in December and 52.2 in November's final value) [17] January 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in late December 2025, covering 9 categories and 50 products [18]

《140万亿之后，中国经济凭什么继续向前》 ——从中美博弈到AI前沿，一次看懂中国经济的"硬核底气" 7 M 0 7 190 Amount of the Research of 如果把中国经济比作一艘巨轮，140万亿元不是靠岸，而是一次成功换挡。 第一重底气，在含金量。五年新增约40万亿元，相当于再造一个世界级经济体。更关键的是动力更"新"：数字经济、人工智能、绿色产业成为主引 擎，"AI+制造""新能源+全产业链"让增长更智能、更清洁、更可持续。 第二重底气，在政策定力。宏观政策强调"积极有为"而非非常规，财政更精准，货币更注重物价与预期，逆周期与跨周期并行，目标清晰——稳增长、稳物 价、稳信心。这是一种把方向盘牢牢握在手里的治理能力。 第三重底气，在外部风浪中的主动权。面对经贸摩擦，中国理性反制、扩大开放，外贸规模稳居全球第一，以内循环为底盘、高水平开放为加速器，用确定 性对冲不确定性。 最后看未来，AI不是泡沫，而是筛选器。中国的优势在于超大场景、海量数据、稳定电力，坚持开源与普惠，让技术不仅"能赚钱"，也"能造福人"。正如信 仰所启示的：光不是用来垄断的，而是用来照亮世界的。 一句话总结：中国经济不是 ...

面对国内外形势深刻复杂变化，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，展现出强大韧性和活力。当前经济 发展态势如何？未来宏观政策应如何发力？怎样更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争？本期"对话经 济学家"特邀请财政部原副部长朱光耀结合中央经济工作会议精神进行深度解析。 140万亿经济总量背后的含金量 记者："十四五"时期，我国经济发展连续迈上新台阶，今年有望达到140万亿元左右。您怎么解读这个 成绩？ 朱光耀："十四五"时期是我国全面建成小康社会、实现第一个百年奋斗目标之后，乘势而上开启全面建 设社会主义现代化国家新征程、向第二个百年奋斗目标进军的第一个五年。面对复杂外部环境和国内转 型压力，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，我国经济发展取得突破性进展。2020年至2025 年，经济总量从100万亿元人民币跃升至140万亿元人民币，这一增长速度在全球主要经济体中名列前 茅。五年间40万亿元人民币的增量，折合超5万亿美元，相当于创造了一个全球第三大经济体的规模。 从世界意义的角度来看，"十四五"时期，我国经济总量占世界经济的比重为17%左右，对世界经济增长 年均贡献率超30%。国际货币基金组织将2025年中国经济增速 ...

Economic Growth and Resilience - China's economy is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan, marking a significant achievement during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a growth rate among the highest globally [1][2] - The economic growth from 2020 to 2025 represents an increase of 40 trillion yuan, equivalent to over 5 trillion USD, comparable to creating the world's third-largest economy [1] Contribution to Global Economy - China's economy accounts for about 17% of the global economy and contributes over 30% to global economic growth annually [2] - The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2025 growth forecast for China to 5%, indicating strong economic performance [2] Key Support Factors - The two major breakthroughs supporting the 140 trillion yuan economy are the rapid development of the digital economy and artificial intelligence, and the robust growth of the green economy [2][3] - China's digital economy has empowered traditional industries, while advancements in artificial intelligence and quantum information have positioned the country among the global leaders in these fields [2] Green Economy Development - From 2012 to 2024, China's energy consumption grew at an average rate of 3.4%, supporting an average economic growth of 6.1%, with a carbon emission intensity reduction of over 35% [3] - China leads globally in renewable energy capacity, with solar panel production at the top for over a decade and a significant share of lithium battery production [3] Future Economic Outlook - The expected actual growth rate for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is between 4.5% and 5%, with contributions from capital and labor inputs, as well as total factor productivity [4] - The nominal growth rate could reach 7% if actual growth of 5% is combined with a 2% inflation rate [4] Macroeconomic Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies, including a fiscal deficit rate set at around 4% for 2025 and a local government special debt limit of 4.4 trillion yuan [5][6] - The focus is on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with monetary policy aimed at addressing the current negative producer price index [6] International Trade and Relations - Despite external challenges, China's foreign trade remains resilient, maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trader for eight consecutive years, with a projected trade volume of 6.16 trillion USD in 2024 [8] - The U.S. tariff policies pose risks to global trade, and China aims to navigate these challenges while promoting high-quality development and enhancing domestic and international economic circulation [7][8] Foreign Investment Environment - China is committed to creating a market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized business environment to attract foreign investment, with ongoing efforts to streamline regulations and enhance protections for foreign enterprises [9] - The focus is on ensuring that foreign companies can operate smoothly in open sectors, with initiatives to improve infrastructure and support services [9] Artificial Intelligence Sector - China is recognized for its potential in the artificial intelligence sector, with significant investment interest from international investors, particularly from Wall Street [11] - The country aims to leverage its advantages in application scenarios, data resources, and infrastructure to foster a competitive AI industry [13]

12月26日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁主持召开民营企业座谈会，就做好明年经济工作听取意见建议。 22次座谈会覆盖范围之广，彰显诚意。 参会企业遍布东、中、西部，兼顾大、中、小型不同规模，既有行业龙头企业，也有小微企业，既涉及 新能源、人工智能等战略性产业，也包括工程建设、大宗消费、对外经贸等重点领域。 这种全景式覆盖，让作为宏观管理和经济综合协调部门的国家发展改革委，能掌握更全面的一手真实情 况，客观评估现行政策实施效果，从而让宏观政策更加有的放矢，及时优化完善。 三里河注意到，这是郑栅洁46天内召开的第三次民营企业座谈会。 此前，11月11日和11月28日先后召开民营企业座谈会，主题均聚焦"十五五"时期服务业高质量发展。 自2023年7月起，国家发展改革委常态化召开民营企业座谈会，至今已有22次。 密集的会面，务实的交流，释放出的信号远比数字本身更重要。 高频次的座谈背后，是对民营经济一以贯之的重视。 已形成相当规模、占有很重分量的民营经济，在科技创新、促进就业等方面功不可没，对于中国经济的 重要性不言而喻。 在经济爬坡过坎、新旧动能转换的关键时期，稳住民营企业预期，为其打造更好的发展环境、激发其内 生动力 ...

（来源：中国经济导报） "把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"……这一新提法，既延续了逆周期调节 的核心要义，又体现了货币政策在稳增长与防风险之间寻求更高效动态平衡的政策智慧。 显然，作为政策工具，无论是财政支出的方向与力度，还是货币信贷的总量与结构，都需根据经济运行 的即时状况、突出矛盾和经营主体反馈进行灵活调整和优化。其目标是熨平经济周期波动，缓解短期冲 击，保障民生底线，并引导资源流向国家战略重点领域和薄弱环节。政策驱动的是经济运行的"当下节 奏"与"微观活力"。 转自：中国经济导报 本报评论员 | 王春华 既要政策给力，也要改革发力。中央经济工作会议明确提出，"必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举"。这 是"十四五"应对复杂形势、推动稳中求进的实践总结，也是"十五五"实现高质量发展、增强经济内生动 力的科学指引。 会议强调，"增强改革与政策的协同效应，推动经济运行和市场预期持续向好"。这一协同体系的内在逻 辑在于：宏观政策逆周期调节，实现"短期稳增长"，为改革赢得时间窗口和稳定的经济社会环境；改革 举措跨周期布局，破除体制机制障碍，实现"长期增活力"，为宏观政策传导畅通渠道、提升效能。 ...

报告指出，金融系统坚持党中央对金融工作的集中统一领导，按照党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中 求进工作总基调，统筹发展和安全，加强逆周期调节，积极防范化解金融领域风险，有效维护金融稳定 与安全。一是加大金融支持实体经济力度。2024年两次降低存款准备金率共1个百分点，保持流动性合 理充裕。两次下调政策利率共0.3个百分点，引导存贷款利率和社会综合融资成本下降。健全科技、绿 色、普惠、养老、数字等领域金融支持政策体系，建立金融"五篇大文章"总体统计制度。二是积极做好 金融支持融资平台债务风险化解工作。推动出台金融支持融资平台债务风险化解系列政策，建立融资平 台债务统计监测系统和查询系统，推动融资平台规范有序退出。三是支持房地产市场平稳健康发展。下 调房贷最低首付比例，取消全国层面房贷利率政策下限，下调公积金贷款利率，推动降低存量房贷利 率，设立保障性住房再贷款，健全住房租赁金融政策体系，推动加快构建房地产发展新模式。四是进一 步拓展中央银行维护金融市场稳定职能。基于市场化原则，创设证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票 回购增持再贷款两项工具，支持资本市场稳健发展。就长期国债收益率作风险提示，与市场加强沟通， 防范长 ...

坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，保持汇率弹性，强化预期引导，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币 汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，大力发展科技金融、绿色金融、普惠 金融、养老金融、数字金融，加力支持国家重大战略、经济社会发展的重点领域和薄弱环节。健全覆盖 全面的宏观审慎管理体系，加强系统性金融风险的监测、评估，强化重点领域的宏观审慎管理。防范化 解重点领域金融风险，坚定推进金融支持融资平台债务风险化解工作，积极稳妥处置中小金融机构风 险，做好房地产金融宏观审慎管理，牢牢守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线。 报告提出，下一步，金融系统将全面贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，按照中央经济工作会 议、中央金融工作会议部署，统筹国内国际两个大局，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展 格局，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，持续 防范化解重点领域风险，实现"十五五"良好开局。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的 重要考量，保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 中国人民银行12月26日消息，近日中国人民银行发布的《中国金融稳定 ...

成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：下游开工深入淡季 宏观支撑价格高位 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 26 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 ...

Policy Insights - The GDP target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies not being strong stimulus but rather supportive measures[5][9]. - Monetary policy is projected to see a 10 basis point rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut, consistent with 2025[5][24]. - The fiscal deficit rate is anticipated to stay at 4%, with total debt slightly increasing, maintaining fiscal efforts similar to 2025[5][24]. Economic Outlook - Economic growth is expected to be stable, but structural differentiation may occur, with real housing demand declining due to slowed urbanization[5][36]. - Real estate sales are projected to decrease by 10% in 2026, continuing the downward trend from 2025[5][37]. - Manufacturing investment is likely to remain low, with a growth rate of 3-4% anticipated due to ongoing capacity surplus issues[5][47]. Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise slightly to around 0.5% in 2026, driven by reduced drag from pork and energy prices[5][79]. - Core CPI is projected to maintain resilience, supporting overall CPI growth, with a historical average around 0.8%[5][88]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow bull market, driven by technology and cyclical sectors, with institutional funds poised to enter the market[5][5]. - The total balance of institutional funds is over 100 trillion yuan, with an estimated 1.5-5 trillion yuan ready to enter the equity market[5][5]. Risk Factors - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential underperformance in infrastructure investment[5][5].